LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND TRADE IN ANCIENT GREECE: EVIDENCE FROM POLLEN DATA ADAM IZDEBSKI TYMON SŁOCZYNSKI´ ANTON BONNIER GRZEGORZ KOLOCH KATERINA KOULI Abstract In this paper we use pollen data from six sites in southern Greece to study long-term vegetation change in this region from 1000 BCE to 600 CE. Based on insights from environmental history, we interpret our estimated trends in the regional presence of cereal, olive, and vine pollen as proxies for structural changes in agricultural production. We present evidence that there was a mar- ket economy in ancient Greece and a major trade expansion several centuries before the Roman conquest. Our results are consistent with auxiliary data on settlement dynamics, shipwrecks, and ancient oil and wine presses. JEL Classification: C81, F14, N53, N73, Q17 Keywords: agricultural production, ancient Greece, environmental history, market integration, pollen data, trade Corresponding author: Tymon Słoczy´nski,Department of Economics & International Business School, Brandeis University, MS 021, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02453, USA. Email:
[email protected] This version: December 11, 2019. For helpful comments, we thank Hans-Joachim Voth (editor), three anonymous referees, Shameel Ahmad, Stephen Cecchetti, Alan Dye, Simon Fuchs, George Hall, Robert Hunt, Michael McCormick, John Murray, Aldo Musacchio, Steven Nafziger, ¸SevketPamuk, Davide Pet- tenuzzo, Pedro Sant’Anna, Peter Temin, Taco Terpstra, members of the PELOPS group, seminar participants at Brandeis, Harvard, LSE, and Northwestern, and conference participants at the ‘Human-Environment Dynamics in the Peloponnese and Beyond: Ideas–Methods–Results’ conference, American School of Clas- sical Studies at Athens, 2017; the EHES conference, University of Tübingen, 2017; the Liberal Arts Colleges Economic History Workshop, Mount Holyoke College, 2018; the NBER Summer Institute, 2018; the World Economic History Congress, Boston, 2018; and the AEA Annual Meeting, Atlanta, 2019.