www.africa-confidential.com 4 April 2003 Vol 44 No 7 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL UGANDA/RWANDA 2 UGANDA Soccer war, Congo war In the phoney war, the score was The great U-turn nil-nil as Rwanda and Uganda President Museveni calls for the freeing of parties and the chance of played a qualifier in Africa’s Cup of a third term at the top Nations soccer tournament last It was the sharpest of U-turns. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, who has vehemently defended his weekend in Kigali. In the real war in eastern Congo-Kinshasa, ‘no-party system’ of government since he won power in 1986, now wants to lift the ban on multi-party Kampala and Kigali back rival politics. He told delegates at an apprehensive congress of the ruling National Resistance Movement at militias and may be preparing for Kyankwanzi, north of Kampala, on 26 March, that they should accommodate those politicians who had another direct confrontation over persuaded ‘about 20 per cent’ of Ugandans to vote against his no-party system. The NRM would remain Congo’s mineral riches. unchanged, a broad church: ‘Those who want to experiment again with political parties can do so alongside the Movement, which should maintain its present identity’. So the no-party system (with its KENYA 3massive state subventions) is to compete with others in the presidential election due in 2006. The change of heart is more pragmatic than ideological. The NRM’s middle ranks are increasingly Victory is not enough calling for political liberalisation and modernisation. They also want more power within the Movement Two interlinked questions gnaw at over its ruling clique, who have been conspicuously enjoying the spoils of government. Its National the credibility of President Kibaki’s Secretariat follows rather than leads debates and most of its officers are loyal to the President rather than government: will the presidency the NRM. Some activists have peeled off to the Reform Agenda group, led by Museveni’s former doctor exert leadership in economic and and challenger in the 2001 election, Kizza Besigye. He was last seen in Rwanda which, says the NRM, political reforms and will the ruling finances the Reform Agenda’s armed wing, the People’s Redemption Army. Support for the Reform coalition stay together? Central to Kibaki’s problems is the row over Agenda is growing, though it is not formally organised as a party. constitutional reform. If he can’t The constitution says that Museveni must hand power to a successor in 2006, at the end of his two pacify coalition partner Raila elected five-year terms. Insiders say that he believes he can use his political strength to manage the Odinga on this, the government transition to multi-party politics. Opponents claim he is using the confusion of multi-party politics to will split. negotiate another term after amending the constitution. At the NRM’s National Executive meeting this week, only one senior figure, Local Government Minister Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, opposed discussion on CÔTE D’IVOIRE 5 extending the two-term limit. Unity’s opponents Kaguta’s halo fades President Gbagbo grudgingly Museveni sees Uganda’s halo fading in the region, now that Kenya and Tanzania have functioning cooperates with the French- multi-party systems; December’s elections in Kenya allowed a peaceful succession and change of ruling brokered peace accord and power- party (AC Vol 44 No 1). Museveni doesn’t want Uganda’s political idiosyncracies to chip away at its pro- sharing deal while his powerful wife foreign investment stance, which has brought a growing trickle of capital from Asia and Europe into Simone openly opposes it. Rebel farming and service companies. There is also pressure for multi-partyism from Western friends and representatives are yet to attend a meeting of the new power-sharing lenders such as Britain and the United States. Some 50 per cent of Uganda’s budget is provided by the cabinet but have promised to do so International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Western states. Museveni does not want to put that at risk, this week as we went to press. which helps to explain why Uganda joined Rwanda, Eritrea and Ethiopia as the only African states to endorse the US-UK war on Iraq. GUINEA 7 Museveni’s about-turn on parties was extensively trailed. The independent Kampala daily newspaper The Monitor wrote about the presidential conversion a month ago; two years ago, the NRM National Up for grabs Executive set up a committee to consider political liberalisation. Museveni said that a meeting with this committee earlier this year had convinced him that it was time to lift the ban on parties. Some cynics As President Conté lies dying, a reckon that, by saying his piece on parties now, Museveni may win plaudits – but that unbanning the dangerous power vacuum is developing in Conakry. Politicians parties, plus holding a referendum and parliamentary vote, could take another year or two, leaving the are divided about a military-backed newly unbanned parties little time to organise for the 2006 elections. interim government to prepare for A week before Museveni’s announcement, the Constitutional Court had ruled that a law banning parties fresh elections but, unsurprisingly, from national political activity was unconstitutional. Opposition leaders such as the Democratic Party’s the army is warming to the idea. Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, Winnie Byanyima and Okumu Ronald Reagan, had petitioned against the 2002 Political Organisations Act, which banned parties from holding rallies, campaigning in elections POINTERS 8 and opening offices outside Kampala; they claimed that this rendered political parties ‘non-functional and inoperative’, imposing a one-party state. The NRM hierarchy, including Foreign Minister James Zimbabwe, Sudan, Wapakhabulo, Defence Minister Amama Mbabazi and Political Commissar Crispus Kiyonga, Nigeria & Algeria responded with 120 counter-affidavits. After six months of argument and submissions, all five Constitutional Court judges ruled for the petitioners. The NRM immediately announced it would appeal. 4 April 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 7 Soccer war, Congo war So it’s war then. Uganda’s daily Monitor was unequivocal: ‘Rwanda, The Rwanda-Uganda falling out is mainly about grabbing Congo’s Uganda go to war in Kigali!’ screamed the headline. In fact, the Monitor was resources but not exclusively so. Both sides are trying to position themselves reporting a qualifying match between Kampala and Kigali in Africa’s Cup as other parties in Congo edge towards a peace deal and a new power-sharing of Nations soccer tournament on 29 March. Thankfully for Ugandan soccer government agreed in South Africa on 2 April. Next week, Presidents fans who travelled to Kigali for the match, the final score was nil-nil. Some Yoweri Museveni and Paul Kagame are due to discuss their differences Ugandans had feared serious violence if their team won. Such are relations with mutual friend President Thabo Mbeki. between these former staunch allies. Prospects aren’t good, with Uganda still ahead in the propaganda war. On Others suggest that the hype before the soccer game and the no-score 31 March, Rwanda’s former Defence Minister, Brigadier General Emmanuel draw is a metaphor for the Kigali and Kampala governments’ inept diplomacy Habyrimana, walked across the Katuna border post and defected to Uganda. – bluster without result. True perhaps for Uganda and Rwanda, but the About five Rwandan officers have fled to Uganda this year complaining of people of eastern Congo-Kinshasa are the grass which these two mini- persecution; and at least three Ugandan officers, including Colonel Samson elephants trample. As in Rwanda’s and Uganda’s battles in Congo’s north- Mande, have defected to Rwanda, which hosted opposition leader Col. eastern diamond centre of Kisangani in 1999 and 2000, Congolese civilians Kizza Besigye after he fled Uganda in 2001. bear the brunt. But the coup de grâce was the ‘capture’ last month in Ituri of 22 fighters Now the theatre is Congo’s eastern Ituri region, where Kigali and of the People’s Redemption Army, which Uganda’s Director of Military Kampala back different militias in a murderous proxy war which has killed Intelligence, Col. Noble Mayombo, claims is a Rwandan-financed group of over 50,000 people in the last three years and displaced half a million more. Ugandan oppositionists trying to destabilise the Museveni government. The All five militias operating in Ituri are accused of gross abuses by international 20 or so journalists who have interviewed the PRA captives weren’t entirely human rights organisations and of looting Congolese gold and diamonds by sure. There is plenty of smoke but the fire is yet to be found – still less the United Nations panel on resource exploitation (AC Vol 43 No 21). extinguished. The Kyankwanzi congress dismissed the legal contest as irrelevant, a local bid for the state airline. However, they failed to raise the money insisting that the real political agenda would be set by the Movement and Uganda Airways was liquidated. Similarly, parliament delayed and its activists. After Museveni’s statement on multi-partyism, most approval of the Bujagali dam for two years. seem to accept that grand changes are looming. Members believe the Museveni’s proposal to debate the ending of the two-term presidential Movement will remain politically dominant though its role is not clear. limit may prove more controversial still. Few NRM people were keen If the President has (reluctantly) accepted multi-party politics, will the on this apparent attempt by Museveni to extend his stay in office – NRM campaign for unbanning parties through a referendum, alongside even though he has publicly assured Ugandans (and privately assured all the other parties? Delegates disagreed over Museveni’s other diplomats) that he has no interest in a third term.