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Alueelliset Kehitysnäkymät Kevät 2016 Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät www.temtoimialapalvelu.fi Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät keväällä 2016 Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät Jouko Nieminen 1/2016 TEM:N JA ELY-KESKUSTEN JULKAISU Julkaisusarjan nimi ja tunnus Käyntiosoite Postiosoite Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät Aleksanterinkatu 4 PL 32 Puhelin 029 506 0000 00170 HELSINKI 00023 VALTIONEUVOSTO Telekopio (09) 1606 3666 1/2016 Tekijät (toimielimestä: nimi, puheenjohtaja, sihteeri) Julkaisuaika 14.4.2016 Jouko Nieminen Strategiajohtaja Toimeksiantaja(t) KEHA-keskus Työ- ja elinkeinoministeriö Toimielimen asettamispäivä Julkaisun nimi Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät 1/2016 Tiivistelmä Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät keväällä 2016 -katsaus on ELY-keskusten yhdessä keskeisten aluekehittäjien kanssa muodostama näkemys seutukuntien ja ELY-keskusalueiden nykytilasta ja lähiajan näkymistä. Tämän katsauksen arviot on tuotettu helmi-maaliskuun 2016 aikana. Alueet ennakoivat, että talouskehitys kääntyy alueilla pikkuhiljaa parempaan suuntaan. Vaikka yleiskuva alkaakin olla myönteinen, ovat alueet näkemyksissään kuitenkin varsin varovaisia ja kasvuodotukset ovat maltillisia. Myös työttömyyden kasvu on taittumassa ja työpaikkoja avautuu aiempaa enemmän. Alueellisesti positiivisimmat odotukset ovat suurinvestointien johdosta Äänekosken, Saarijärvi-Viitasaaren ja Raa- hen seuduilla. Myös Vakka-Suomi ja Etelä-Pirkanmaa erottuvat myönteisyydellään. Lähimmän puolen vuoden aika- na kehitysnäkymät ovat miinuksella Salon, Kotka-Haminan sekä Ylä-Savon seuduilla, mutta vuoden kuluessa näil- läkin alueilla odotetaan kehityksen kääntyvän parempaan suuntaan. Rakentamisen piristyminen näkyy positiivisesti useiden alueiden arvioinneissa. Mm. Helsingin seudulla suurten ra- kennusinvestointien merkitys korostuu. Teollisuudessa on nähtävissä aiempaa enemmän myönteisiä merkkejä, to- sin kehityskuva on teollisuudessa edelleen varsin epäyhtenäinen. Kotimarkkinoihin tukeutuva kaupan ala on mur- rosvaiheessa ja alan näkymät ovat epävarmat. Maatalouden näkymät ovat hankalat ennen muuta tuottajahintojen laskun johdosta. Monilla alueilla työttömyyden kasvu on pysähtymässä ja muutamilla alueilla työttömyys on jo kääntynyt laskuun ja avoimien työpaikkojen määrä on kasvanut. Vaikka työmarkkinat ovatkin piristymässä, odotetaan pitkäaikaistyöttö- mien määrän kasvavan edelleen. Myös ulkomaalaisten korkea työttömyys nähdään alueilla haasteellisena. TEM:n yhdyshenkilö: Elinkeino- ja innovaatio-osasto/Toimialapalvelu/Esa Tikkanen, s-posti: esa.tikkanen(at)tem.fi puh. 050 040 5459 KEHA-keskuksen ja ELY-keskusten yhdyshenkilö: Jouko Nieminen; jouko.nieminen(at)ely-keskus.fi, puh 0295 022 769 Asiasanat ISSN Verkkojulkaisu ISBN Verkkojulkaisu 2323-7678 978-952-327-097-8 Kokonaissivumäärä Kieli Hinta 289 Suomi - Julkaisija Kustantaja Työ- ja elinkeinoministeriö Publikationsseriens namn och kod Besöksadress Postadress Regionala utvecklingsutsikter Alexandersgatan 4 PB 32 Telefon 029 506 0000 00170 HELSINGFORS 00023 STATSRÅDET Telefax (09) 1606 3666 1/2016 Författare (uppgifter om organet: organets namn, ordförande, sekrete- Publiceringstid rare) 14.4.2016 Jouko Nieminen Uppdragsgivare Strategidirektör Arbets- och näringsministeriet Utvecklings- och förvaltningscentret Organets tillsättningsdatum Titel Regionala utvecklingsutsikter 1/2016 Referat Översikten om de regionala utvecklingsutsikterna våren 2016 är NTM-centralernas och de centrala regionutveck- larnas gemensamt bildade uppfattning om nuläget och utsikterna för den närmaste framtiden i de ekonomiska regi- onerna och NTM-centralernas områden. Bedömningarna i denna översikt har gjorts i februari–mars 2016. Regionerna bedömer att den ekonomiska utvecklingen i regionerna så småningom vänder och går i en bättre rikt- ning. Även om den allmänna bilden börjar vara positiv är regionerna dock mycket försiktiga i sin syn och tillväxtför- väntningarna är måttliga. Arbetslöshetsökningen håller också på att plana ut och det finns allt fler lediga jobb. I Äänekoskiregionen, regionen Saarijärvi-Viitasaari och Brahestadsregionen har man tack vare stora investeringar de mest positiva förväntningarna. Även Nystadsregionen och Södra Birkaland har positivare förväntningar än de flesta andra regioner. Under det närmaste halvåret är utvecklingsutsikterna negativa i Saloregionen, regionen Kot- ka-Fredrikshamn och Övre Savolax, men inom ett år väntar man sig även i dessa regioner att utvecklingen ska gå i en positivare riktning. Att det har skett ett uppsving i fråga om byggande syns som en positiv faktor i flera regioners bedömningar. Bl.a. i Helsingforsregionen accentueras betydelsen av stora byggnadsinvesteringar. Inom industrin kan skönjas mer posi- tiva tecken än tidigare, men utvecklingsbilden är inom industrin fortfarande mycket splittrad. Handelsbranschen som stöder sig på hemmamarknaden befinner sig i ett brytningsskede, och branschens utsikter är osäkra. Utsikterna för jordbruket är svåra framför allt på grund av en nedgång i producentpriserna. I många regioner håller arbetslöshetsökningen på att stanna upp och i några regioner har arbetslösheten redan bör- jat gå ned och antalet lediga jobb ökat. Även om arbetsmarknaden håller på att piggna till väntar man sig att lång- tidsarbetslösheten fortsätter att öka. Även den höga arbetslösheten bland utlänningar upplever man som en utma- ning i regionerna. Kontaktperson vid ANM: Närings- och innovationsavdelningen/Branschtjänst/Esa Tikkanen, e-post: esa.tikkanen(at)tem.fi, tfn 050 040 5459 Kontaktperson vid Utvecklings- och förvaltningscentret och närings-, trafik- och miljöcentralen: Jouko Nieminen, e- post: jouko.nieminen(at)ely-keskus.fi, tfn 0295 022 769 Nyckelord ISSN Nätpublikation ISBN Nätpublikation 2323-7678 978-952-327-097-8 Sidoantal Språk Pris 289 Finska - Utgivare Förläggare Arbets- och näringsministeriet Julkaisusarjan nimi ja tunnus Visiting address Postal address Outlook for regional development Aleksanterinkatu 4 P.O. Box 32 Telephone 029 506 0000 FIN-00170 Helsinki FIN-00023 GOVERNMENT, Fax +358 9 1606 2166 1/2016 FINLAND Helsinki FINLAND Tekijät (toimielimestä: nimi, puheenjohtaja, sihteeri) Julkaisuaika 14.4.2016 Jouko Nieminen Strategy Director Toimeksiantaja(t) KEHA Centre Ministry of Employment and the Economy Toimielimen asettamispäivä Julkaisun nimi Regional economic prospects 1/2016 Tiivistelmä Regional Economic Prospects in Spring 2016 is a review of the current situation and short-term prospects in the regions and ELY Centre areas, which is prepared by the ELY Centres (Centres for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment) together with the key regional developers. The evaluations in this review have been made during February and March 2016. The regions predict that regional economic development will gradually turn in a more positive direction. Although the general picture is starting to look positive, the regions are nevertheless cautious in their predictions, and growth estimates are moderate. Also, the tide of rising unemployment is now turning and more job vacancies are opening up then before. The most positive regional results can be seen in Äänekoski, Saarijärvi-Viitasaari and Raahe, thanks to the large investments made in these areas. The outlook for both Vakka-Suomi and Etelä-Pirkanmaa is also notably positive. Economic prospects for the first half of the year are negative for Salo, Kotka-Hamina and Ylä-Savo, but over the course of the year these regions also are expected to see their situation start to move in a positive direction. The recovery of the construction sector is seen positively in many regions' assessments. For example, the importance of large construction investments in the Helsinki region is increasing. In industry, more positive signs can be seen, although it is true that the overall economic picture is still quite uneven. The domestic-market-focused trade sector is undergoing a period of transformation, and the sector's prospects are uncertain. The outlook for agriculture is challenging, primarily because of decreases in producer prices. In many regions unemployment has stopped increasing, with some regions starting to see a fall in unemployment and a rise in the number of jab vacancies. Although the job markets are reviving, it is expected that the level of long-term unemployment will continue to rise. In addition, the high unemployment rate for foreigners is also seen as a challenge. Contact person at MEE: Enterprise and Innovation Department/Business Sector Services/Esa Tikkanen, e-mail: esa.tikkanen(at)tem.fi tel. +358 50 040 5459 Contact person at KEHA Centre and ELY Centre: Jouko Nieminen; jouko.nieminen(at)ely-keskus.fi, tel. 0295 022 769 Asiasanat ISSN Verkkojulkaisu ISBN Verkkojulkaisu 2323-7678 978-952-327-097-8 Kokonaissivumäärä Kieli Hinta 289 Finnish - Julkaisija Kustantaja Ministry of Employment and the Economy Sisällysluettelo Taustaa ................................................................................................................... 7 Yhteenveto ............................................................................................................. 8 Uudenmaan ELY-keskus .................................................................................... 12 Helsingin seutukunta .............................................................................................. 30 Raaseporin seutukunta .......................................................................................... 40 Porvoon seutukunta ............................................................................................... 44 Loviisan seutukunta...............................................................................................
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