Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport July 2020 REPORT PUBLICATIONS

« Images of Farnborough International Airshow 2018 merged with a computer highlight the challenges facing show organizers during the Covid-19 pandemic while heralding the creativity that went into this year’s FIA Connect event, conducted entirely online. ILLUSTRATION: GRZEGORZ RZEKOS ILLUSTRATION:

Pandemic Aero industry assembles online dealing with Covid cuts › page 6 by Charles Alcock Sustainability This week should have seen more than restrictions, and widespread fear of levels until 2024. The company believes that SAF and hydrogen may 80,000 aviation industry professionals and human interaction itself. the civil aerospace sector has just about got- assemble for the Farnborough International Perhaps the clearest assessment came ten through the crisis-management phase, power the future › page 8 Airshow, but instead they found themselves from the Roland Berger consultancy, which characterized by painful cost-cutting and reflecting on where the Covid-19 pandemic, this week issued a report envisioning no job losses. Manufacturing which triggered its cancellation, has left the prospect of capacity returning to 2019 continues on page 26 aerospace business. The online FIA Connect Smart factories forging event provided that opportunity, and on the page 18 foreheads of about 150 panelists in more a digital path› than 70 webinars it was easy to visualize the burning questions on their minds: how bad Tempest a game-changer Mobility will this crisis be, when will it start getting EmbraerX flies eVTOL better, what will the dreaded “new normal” by David Donald look like, and what steps do my colleagues simulator › page 20 and I need to take to get there? Speakers at a series of FIA Connect webi- to not only make the Tempest FCAS a The consensus was refreshingly candid, nars this week have underlined the revolu- “system-of-systems,” capable of defeat- Diversity built on an expectation that the industry tionary way in which the Tempest program ing the threat and successfully achieving needs to dig in for a recovery more chal- partners have undertaken development of a desired effects in future operations, but one Panel aims to welcome lenging than other crises in living memory, (FCAS), as well as achieved with maximum development and page 28 including the first Gulf War, 9/11, the finan- its significant effects on the national skills manufacturing efficiency to reduce costs women › cial crisis of 2008, and the SARS epidemic. base, economy, defense industrial capabili- and development times to around half of Panelists used the term “perfect storm” ties, and the ability of air forces to maintain what can be achieved traditionally. Emissions more than once to describe the grim con- an operational advantage. “We need a game-changer, we need Net-zero seeks carbon fluence of steep economic downturn, pub- The program is adopting new processes new approaches,” said Dave Holmes, lic health emergency, government travel and new ways of approaching challenges continues on page 26 cuts by 2050 › page 46 warned that a failure to agree to accept- and Leonardo bosses able terms for future trading relations could cause serious complications. “We know there is an additional challenge voice Brexit concerns from a hard Brexit and we don’t like it,” said Faury. by Charles Alcock Adding that the French and German Alessandro governments have been quick to provide Profumo, Senior leaders from European aero- high levels of support for the aerospace Leonardo CEO space groups Airbus and Leonardo on industry during the Covid crisis, Faury July 20 expressed concern about working expressed hope that the UK government arrangements with British companies in would follow suit. “We have been able to “We have 10,000 people in the UK, the event that the Brexit transition period count on a doubling in the money avail- including a big base for our helicopter ends with no trade deal agreed between able for research and development, and division, and my main worry is for the the European Union and the UK. One dif- Guillaume this represents a sustained effort for the people,” Profumo added. He said he wor- ficulty would likely center on the absence Faury, future of aviation,” he commented. “We ries that tightening UK immigration rules of a Bilateral Agreement Airbus CEO hope that the UK [aviation] ecosystem will prevent a free flow of talent needed (BASA), which is supposed to form part will be more innovative and competitive for companies across the continent to get of the Brexit settlement to allow for a and we see that this is high on the agenda the technical skills they need to support relatively smooth regulatory landscape has indicated that he is willing to let the of the UK government.” key programs. when the UK leaves the European Union UK complete its departure from the EU Leonardo CEO Alessandro Profumo However, Victoria Foy, CEO of Safran Aviation Safety Agency at the end of the without a deal, even if it means having to told the FIA Connect audience that a Seats GB, said that the Covid-19 pandemic transition period on Dec. 31, 2020. trade on standard World Trade Organiza- complete and balanced Brexit settlement has so far proved far more disruptive than Industry groups have continued to tion terms. is imperative to Europe’s aerospace sec- Brexit. “For us, the situation is really no express fears that the Brexit negotia- Speaking during the opening cere- tor, in which he sees the UK continuing different than it was pre-Brexit,” she com- tions could soon collapse, as the two mony for the online FIA Connect event, to play a leading role. “I am strongly in mented. “We are part of [-based] sides apparently remain far apart in Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said that favor of an agreement even if it means Safran and they have invested in the UK by their expectations for a complex trade the France-based group very much wants postponement [of the Brexit transition buying our business and have invested more deal. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to keep working with UK partners, but period],” he said. in the company over the past two years.”

Consumer confidence key to relaunching airline travel by Kerry Lynch

Facing the unprecedented drop-off in However, a key to drawing travelers passengers during the Covid-19 pandemic, back will be confidence and communica- industry leaders tions, said Jack Goodwin, deputy director, must closely collaborate on technology, restart, recovery, and engagement unit cleanliness, and other means to reduce for the UK Department for Transport. health risks, increase passenger confi- The industry must overcome issues such dence, and facilitate the return of travel, as insurance for Covid and unexpected government and industry officials agreed. cancellations, Goodwin said. Recogniz- By June, airlines globally had cut back ing the importance of aviation to the their capacity by 75 to 85 percent, “a huge UK GDP, he said the government should Preventive measures in aircraft and environments are equally important to the proportion,” Oliver Wyman partner David endeavor to lift quarantines from various reassurance of passengers, an Oliver Wyman survey revealed. Stewart said during an FIA Connect 2020 countries to gradually open travel with- session on the relaunch of commercial out mandatory self- quarantines. Con- Such systems must provide an equiva- a number of key international aviation aviation on July 20. “The impact of the sumers must be reassured that travel is lent of safety as measures taken on organizations have expressed more sup- Covid-19 pandemic on our aviation eco- safe again, he said. the ground, even if they take into account port for expansion, Ridgeway said. system has been unprecedented and dra- To provide that reassurance, industry other approaches, Delaney said. While Other areas to help in the airport matic. Now the industry has to prepare to leaders have begun collaborating on a basic social distancing might be helpful include kiosks to minimize the use of facilitate the recovery.” The industry needs multi-layered approach that looks at the on the ground, it is not a practical solu- cash, increased use of mobile applications to understand what drives consumer confi- travel experience from beginning to end, tion in the air, he added. But, stressing to help ease congestion points, and the dence. “The airlines need passengers to be the airplane and airport environments, the belief that aviation remains the saf- deployment of artificial intelligence to happy to travel,” Stewart said. and protection with the acknowledgment est form of transportation, he said other help in the areas to minimize expo- He noted surveys conducted by his of the possibility of passengers who may measures are effective, from the air fil- sure risks, she said. consultancy revealed passengers pointed be carrying the virus, said Mike Delaney, tration system to the use of masks, anti- Research further centers on ultraviolet to government regulation and restric- v-p and confident travel initiative leader microbial coatings, aircraft geometry, and technologies in the airplane to help kill tions as the biggest factor in decisions to for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. operational systems. harmful pathogens, but more needs to be travel. However, airline cleanliness was In the short term, airlines and Technology can play a significant factor explored on the effects on passengers and a top-three factor in passenger decision- have concentrated on cleanliness and in the recovery, said LeAnn Ridgeway, v-p airport materials, Ridgeway said. making. Passengers further rated the air- measures to enable passengers to fly again. of avionics and general manager of infor- The participants in the FIA Connect port environment as equally important in But focus must also center on preparing mation management services for Collins panel agreed that communication of all their travel decisions. On a more positive for an increase of traffic as passengers Aerospace. In the airport environment, such efforts is essential to facilitate the front, Steward added, 75 percent of busi- return and “hardened systems” based on biometrics present an “easy solution” to return of ridership, but they also agreed ness travelers expressed a willingness to lessons learned to not only help airlines reduce touchpoints and congestion. The that the industry must apply the mea- return to travel in the future as much as navigate through the pandemic but future technology is already available and had sures consistently to reassure the trav- or more than they had pre-Covid. possible pandemics. been growing in acceptance. With Covid-19, eling public.

2 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com E2 PROFIT HUNTER A different animal for a different world

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#E2Profi tHunter E2Profi tHunter.com 1,282 PW1100Gs in the field. It expects that’s something we’re trying to work to finish 90 percent of the needed LPT closely on with Airbus and our airline fixes and all of the roughly 200 remain- customers to get behind us,” reported ing accessory gearboxes by the end of the Deurloo. “The A220 fleet has been doing year. incredibly well in service. We’ve noticed “We’re on track to get this fleet into that as the airlines go back into operation, a much better place as we enter 2021,” the A220 fleet is the first one they pull up.” Deurloo stressed. Deurloo pointed to Delta Air Lines’s Separately, Pratt continues work on A220 utilization rate as evidence of the fixes to problems discovered with the model’s operational effectiveness, not- PW1500G’s first rotating low-pressure ing that the airline has not parked one of compressor stage following a series of the Airbus narrowbodies since the onset in-flight shutdowns at Swiss International of the Covid crisis. “They kept flying the Airlines and Air Baltic. Last October Swiss entire time,” he said. “And today I think temporarily grounded its 29-strong fleet that fleet, from a utilization perspective, of -300s and -100s after is only 18 percent lower than pre-Covid. experiencing three engine shutdowns It’s pretty remarkable when you think the over four months. The most recent inci- world utilization rate is still below 50 per- dent happened this past February, when cent of what pre-Covid was.” Engineers at the Pratt & Whitney-SIA Engineering MRO joint venture Eagle Services Asia in the crew of an Air Baltic A220-300 had to In fact, Deurloo explained that the Singapore inspect a newly overhauled PW1100G. shut down an engine and divert to Bor- comparatively small A220 fleet allowed deaux while en route from the Latvian Pratt to more effectively support the capital Riga to Malaga in Spain. Pratt has customers with spare engines than it determined an appropriate fix and has fin- could when the A320neo suffered some Pratt & Whitney finds silver ished the first round of associated testing, of its early problems, resulting in far said Deurloo, who added that the com- fewer AOG cases. “Even though they pany has managed to limit the number of had some removals, they didn’t have lining in Covid-19 pandemic resulting AOG days with effective spares some of the longer AOG or multi-day management. AOGs the Neo fleet saw,” he noted. “So by Gregory Polek “We have corrective action identified, the A220 has actually had a very, very we’ve gone through initial testing, and good customer experience.” While virtually no one welcomed the to the MRO piece and upgrading the GTF near pause in airline operations this year fleet across all platforms—Neo, A220, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, one of E2—to take the opportunity to focus on the industry’s prominent engine compa- the entire fleet.” nies has managed to find a silver lining. Deurloo described the effort to solve Pratt & Whitney, whose geared turbofan the LPT problem as a “surgical strike” (GTF) family for years suffered from tech- in which the company managed to nical snags, has seized the opportunity to access excess capacity at MRO partners aggressively address some of the GTF’s caused by the Covid-19-associated lull in latest problems, perhaps most notably operations. those involving the main low-pressure “Let me give you a great example— turbine (LPT) in the PW1100G—one Delta Air Lines,” he said. “They are of the engines that power the Airbus a GTF customer; they have the A220 A320neo. airplane they’re flying today, and they Speaking with AIN just before the start have an order book with us on the GTF of the July 20 to 24 FIA Connect event, for their A321neos. They also have an Pratt & Whitney chief commercial officer MRO partnership with us, similar to Rick Deurloo expressed satisfaction with how does. As Delta’s MRO the progress his company has made in load came down, it freed up capacity for replacing the parts in the PW1100Gs in them to say, ‘Hey, you know what? I’ll the field during a time of low utilization accelerate these LPT quick turns.’ They Leonardo AW139 helicopter’s position and flight plan on the due to the pandemic. stepped up.” multifunction display, enabling navigation “I can’t tell you how many airline exec- Deurloo reported that Pratt “feels com- gets Honeywell system alignment with the actual flight utives have said to me, ‘Don’t ruin this fortable” that it will have gained access path, adjusted for environmental factors. opportunity,’” said Deurloo. “And we are to all the A320neos at Indian airlines Primus Epic upgrade The custom approach function offers actually laser-focused on taking our GTF Indigo and Go Air for LPT retrofits by the the capability to design, set, and fly an fleet and taking a look at what that config- August 31 deadline set by India’s Director- EASA has granted certification approval for automated approach to any user-defined uration looked like pre-Covid and making ate General of (DGCA). The Honeywell’s Primus Epic Phase 8 software location, including oil rig helidecks. sure when we exit this calendar year, and agency extended the deadline for replac- and EGPWS with offshore modes, and Leon- Embedded wireless connectivity provides as we go forward, we are able to upgrade ing the LPTs from the end of May to allow ardo will offer the new software in the AW139 high-speed data access for flight plan that configuration.” for disruptions caused by the nationwide intermediate twin. Phase 8 features an transfer and maintenance data capture Areas of focus include the PW1100G’s Covid-19 lockdown. advanced synthetic vision system (SVS) tai- from the aircraft. The new EGPWS version accessory gearbox, an airworthiness “It’s actually progressing well,” he said. lored to helicopter operations and improved -036, also available for Phase 7, is a more directive for which the FAA issued late last “We’re taking advantage because as you 2D maps and wireless data loading. sophisticated helicopter TAWS optimized year. Deurloo reported good progress on know, India has been for a great part of The advanced SVS assists with naviga- for use in offshore environments and that replacement program, as well as on this time on a lockdown. So it gave us the tion and landing approaches to challeng- designed to provide more warning lead one that involved the LPT, the blades on opportunity to get access to their fleet as ing terrain and oil rigs via 3D presentation time of potential collisions. which required a material change. “That’s well. They’re now back in operations, but of the external environment, including Honeywell Epic Phase 8 is one of more a known challenge—we have a new mate- they’re not 100 percent. They’re slowly surrounding terrain, obstacles, runways, than 1,000 kits available for the AW139. rial going into that third-stage LPT; we’re introducing the fleet in.” and helipads within the background of the Leonardo has received nearly 1,200 setting up quick turns,” he explained. So far, Pratt has completed 75 percent primary flight display (PFD). A 2D interac- orders for the helicopter and more than “One of the things we did as a company of the LPT upgrades and 82 percent of the tive navigation (INAV) feature displays the 1,050 operate in some 70 countries. M.H. during this crisis is committing ourselves accessory gearbox replacements on the

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Helicopters | Aeronautics | Electronics, Defence & Security Systems | Space a welcome increase on the 4,679 flights that took place a month earlier. , which grounded up to 98 percent of its fleet, reclaimed its pre-coronavirus lead- ership position and operated 1,006 flights. Three low-cost carriers rank in the top five in terms of movements, Ryanair, Wizz Air, and EasyJet. Only one EU legacy airline, Germany’s Lufthansa, features in the top five despite most of the bloc’s flag carriers—including , , airBaltic, , KLM, SAS, and Eurocontrol data TAP Air Portugal—having received gener- show that 13,378 ous financial support packages from their flights operated in the governments. European network on July 13, equating to Generous Government Aid about 37 percent of the But Not to All Airlines

INTOSH levels seen on the same State aid made available to airlines due c day a year earlier. to Covid-19 topped $120 billion by early

DAVID M June, IATA analysis reveals. However, not all governments, mainly in Asia, Latin America, and Africa, have shown the continued rise of the number of infec- a willingness or an ability to afford sup- Novel Coronavirus shakes tions—from 5.9 million reported cases on porting their airlines in the same fash- May 31 to 12.8 million reported cases on ion, leaving operators cashless. “Several July 13, according to World Health Orga- airlines have already entered bankruptcy global airline industry nization (WHO) data. “There is a lot to protection or administration since the be concerned about,” stressed WHO start of the pandemic, including Aero- by Cathy Buyck director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghe- mexico, Air Mauritius, Avianca, South breyesus during a July 13 media briefing. Africa’s Comair, LATAM Airlines, Thai In keeping with his motto “Stay strong. years. Within that category, 28 percent “The virus remains public enemy number Airways, and Virgin Australia. With all We will get through this crisis and keep of respondents answered between two one, but the actions of many governments of them, the failure to secure financial the world connected,” International Air and three years, 24 percent answered and people do not reflect this,” he said, support from their governments was the Transport Association (IATA) director- between three and four years, and 4 warning that if people don’t follow basics main driver,” pointed out Brendan Sobie, general Alexandre de Juniac did not want percent expected the recovery to take the pandemic will get “worse and worse founder of Singapore-based independent to sound too pessimistic when briefing longer than four years. As for consum- and worse.” aviation consulting and analysis firm media earlier this month on the recovery ers, regardless of location or reason for Sobie Aviation. He added he expects all prospects for the industry. Yet, his mes- traveling, almost everyone (95 percent) Fractured Approach seven to successfully emerge from bank- sage was gloomy. “This crisis could have expressed different attitudes about Several countries, regions, or cities that ruptcy or administration and survive fol- a very long shadow. Passengers are telling traveling in the wake of the Covid-19 overcame the first peak of the outbreak lowing restructurings. us that it will take time before they return pandemic. “It is clear that the road to and eased lockdowns and now see an A handful of other airlines have ceased to their old travel habits. Many airlines recovery is not going to be smooth—or increase of new infections have begun to operations entirely and are in the pro- are not planning for demand to return to rapid,” ICF’s consultants concluded. reinstate restrictions or quarantines. In cess of being liquidated—Austria’s Level 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024,” he warned, Europe, the situation changes almost daily, Europe and sister airline Level France, as he shared the results of a survey of lei- Worst Year in Aviation History as each government applies its own rules Germany’s SunExpress Deutschland, and sure and business travelers in 11 countries, For sure 2020 is set to become a dismal for travel to and from non-EU countries Thailand-based NokScoot—“but they conducted in February, April, and June on year for airlines financially, as the pan- but also within the bloc, wreaking havoc were small subsidiaries of much larger behalf of IATA. demic and related travel restrictions on airlines’ schedules as they unground parents that continue to operate,” Sobie Eighty-four percent of passengers— or bans, border closures, and quaran- part of their fleets and restore networks. told AIN. or more than 8 out of 10—surveyed in tines bring an abrupt end to a decade of “This has effectively led to a patchwork He warned that a few more Asian June are afraid to travel until Covid-19 steady profitability. Globally, airlines can system of travel restrictions and border budget airlines could shut down, joining is contained, up from 74 percent in Feb- expect to lose $84.3 billion this year, for controls throughout Europe, which may NokScoot, including some of the nine air- ruary, and just 45 percent said that they a negative net profit margin of 20.1 per- remain in place for weeks or months to lines that operate under the AirAsia brand. will travel again in the first months after cent, according to IATA’s latest outlook, come,” Airlines for Europe (A4E) and ACI “Asia’s independent LCCs are currently at the pandemic subsides. In early April, 61 released in early June. IATA expects rev- Europe lamented in a joint statement. “As a disadvantage because thus far the bail- percent said that they would. About two- enues to fall 50 percent, from $838 billion a result, there is very little clarity and sig- out packages by Asian governments have thirds see less travel in their future—be it in 2019 to $419 billion this year. Passen- nificant uncertainty on which citizens can only benefitted full-service airlines and for vacation, visiting friends and relatives, ger revenues will likely collapse to $241 travel where,” the European airlines and their LCC subsidiaries,” Sobie asserted, or business. billion, about a third of last year’s level. airports trade groups said. adding that governments might still Research from global consultancy ICF Passenger numbers will roughly halve to For Thomas Reynaert, managing direc- step in on behalf of LCCs. For example, echoes IATA’s findings. Its surveys of avi- 2.25 billion, roughly equal to 2006 levels, tor of A4E, the situation “is also creating AirAsia expects to secure government ation sector participants and travelers which would equate to an average net loss an uneven playing field within Europe at a loan guarantees in Malaysia and the Phil- from across the world conducted in late of $37.54 per passenger. During the height time when our sector is still struggling for ippines, helping to support an overall March/early April and in late May/early of the financial crisis, in 2008, operators survival.” IATA projects Europe’s airlines restructuring that also includes a planned June show that views on the recovery incurred an average loss of $10.49 per pas- to lose $21.5 billion in 2020 and account equity sale and renegotiated aircraft lease have become markedly more pessimis- senger. “Financially, 2020 will go down as for among the top three worst-affected agreements. tic. Industry stakeholders expect a much the worst year in the history of aviation,” regions, globally. Passenger demand is According to IATA predictions, airlines slower recovery to pre-crisis activity commented De Juniac. “On average, every set to decline by over half, according to in the Asia-Pacific region will be the hard- levels. Where in late March/early April day of this year will add $230 million to IATA’s forecast. est hit by the coronavirus crisis of any most anticipated the recovery to take six industry losses.” Eurocontrol data show that 13,378 global region, with losses expected to to 12 months, in late May/early June the IATA’s projections assume no second flights operated in the European network total $29 billion for 2020. The association majority of respondents (56 percent) put wave of Covid-19 cases and thus end-of- on July 13. That equates to about 37 per- expects Asia-Pacific passenger demand to the recovery timeframe at more than two year figures could prove worse owing to cent of 2019 levels, though it represents fall 53.8 percent year-over-year.

6 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Special-mission roles are a Bombardier bizjet specialty by Chris Pocock

Bombardier made a fresh pitch for special Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) mission versions of its business jets at an missions, with “hundreds of thousands online briefing held in conjunction with of hours flown,” according to Patrick. the Farnborough Airshow’s FIA Connect The lead customer appears to be the effort. Steve Patrick, v-p of specialized air- UK Royal Air Force, which has flown craft, said that all of the company’s port- its five Sentinel R.1 aircraft on multiple folio, from the Learjet 75 to the Global operations since 2008. Saab recently 7500, are candidates for conversion. delivered the first of three 6000s con- In particular though, Patrick claimed verted for Airborne Early Warning and The Royal Air Force has been flying five Sentinel radar-imaging aircraft on operations in the that the Global jets offer “unrivaled size, Control (AEW&C) missions to the UAE Near and Middle East since 2008. weight, power, and cooling capacity.” For Air Force. instance, the Global 5000/5500 series Bombardier allows integrators like Saab policy. For instance, it has previously management aircraft with a business provides up to eight operator worksta- considerable flexibility in customization. told AIN that it would not allow third jet. Bombardier teamed with Lockheed tions, up to 200 KvA of baseline electri- Patrick identified four available options. parties to alter the outer mold line of its Martin to offer the Global 6000. The Air cal power, and a payload of 7,139 pounds. In the “all-inclusive” Option A, the com- aircraft. One third-party conversion of Force expressed fears that such aircraft The largest of the breed, the Global 7500, pany performs all the design, integration, Bombardier Global 6000s, done secretly were now vulnerable to new air defense can accommodate at least 10 operators, test, and certification and modifies the and possibly using Option D, appears to developments such as the Russian S-400 plus four seats at the rear for crew rest, aircraft. In Option B, the customer does have encountered significant technical surface-to-air missile system. But Patrick VIP transport, or briefings. According to the modification. In Option C, Bombar- problems. It took five years for the UK’s appeared to suggest that all was not lost Patrick, the spacious cabins offer “a low- dier does the design, but the customer Marshall Aerospace to deliver the first of in that particular campaign. “I’m sure fatigue environment.” That is significant, does everything else. In Option D, Bom- two aircraft equipped with imaging and as [the U.S. Air Force] goes forward and because the larger Bombardier jets offer bardier provides only licensed design data SIGINT sensors to the UAE Air Force. identifies the solutions to their threats in an endurance of 18 hours. and engineering support. In 2018, the U.S. Air Force ended a the near-peer conflict, if there is a need To date, the 6000/6500 series has Gulfstream, Bombardier’s main com- competition to replace its aging Boeing for a business jet solution, we will offer proved the most popular for Intelligence, petitor, has a much more restrictive 707 JSTARS radar imaging and battlefield one,” he told AIN.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 7 choices we need to make,” he said, adding fuels might prove to be better options for that the technology development needs larger aircraft, he said. to progress fairly quickly over the next Riona Armesmith, chief project engi- four to five years. neer for hybrid-electric propulsion for Such progress will entail reaching Rolls-Royce, agreed that in the short term beyond “aircraft borders” to the automo- “we’ve absolutely demonstrated” that tive and space sectors, both of which have the industry can use SAF immediately. experience with hydrogen energy use, he “Hydrogen needs a bit more work” for use said. In addition, Airbus believes the air- in gas turbines, but it is something Rolls- port community must also prepare for Royce is examining, along with electric. hydrogen- powered aircraft in the 2030s. “It would be an easy thing to say it is an That means bringing hydrogen onto the either-or. It’s not. It’s both,” Armesmith airport to power ground vehicles, he said. said, adding the industry needs to support “That’s going to require work already start- such efforts to push them forward “rather ing today,” not just for aircraft but prepar- than just waiting to see what happens.” ing the roadmap. Airbus already has begun “Nobody’s under the illusion that the initial work, as well as reaching out there’s one technology that’s going to to energy companies to scale for hydro- solve [sustainability challenges],” agreed Airbus hopes to bring a zero-emissions commercial to market in the early 2030s and gen usage. “That infrastructure piece is Eamonn Beirne, head of emerging avia- says it must make key technology decisions in the next five years. as important as the aircraft development tion technologies for the UK Department piece,” noted Llewellyn. for Transport. SAF stands as the most Hydrogen, however, is just one approach immediate approach, but other means, needed for the future mix of fuels. Aircraft including hydrogen, look as if they can Airbus eyes hydrogen- already have received certification to carry help deliver on sustainability. up to 50 percent of sustainable aviation “There are huge opportunities,” said Russ fuels (SAF), such as biofuel. “That’s a huge Dunn, chief technology officer and head of powered airliner in 10 years lever that today we are not adequately strategy for GKN Aerospace. Dunn noted using,” Llewellyn said, primarily because of most aircraft developed today employ older by Kerry Lynch the need to lower the cost. But SAF stands technologies, but that significant advances as the most promising short-term option. have occurred in recent years. SAF is pos- Airbus sees hydrogen as the pathway toward technologies to allow us to do that is “There is no technology limit. There is no sible but needs the right economic condi- its goal of bringing a zero-emissions com- hydrogen,” Llewellyn said. “We believe we technology boundary in us being able to do tions, Dunn added. However, “there are mercial airliner to market in the next decade, need to position the aviation industry to be more there,” he said. huge advances that you can make beyond a key executive said on July 21. powered by renewable energy, and hydro- Longer-term, however, scientists know that,” he said. “SAF is an important ingre- But that executive, Glenn Llewellyn, gen is a very good surrogate for allowing the current generation of biofuel will dient…but one of the ingredients.” v-p of zero-emissions technology for Air- us to do that.” reach a scalability limit, he said, adding Further opportunities exist in areas bus, agreed with other panelists during an Hydrogen can be produced by solar or that aviation will need more investment such as hydrogen and electric. “Not one of FIA Connect 2020 webinar titled “Clean wind, he said, adding that energy can be into power-to-liquid synthetic fuels, such those individual ingredients will meet the Flight—Path to Zero Emissions Aircraft” carried onboard through fuel cells to drive as those using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis requirements for zero-emissions aviation that hydrogen ranks among multiple gas turbines or a hybrid-electric combina- involving hydrogen and carbon molecules. for net-zero 2050,” insisted Dunn, who approaches that will be necessary to reach tion of the two. That would enable a sig- “We believe that it is a highly scalable sus- added that the community must address their ultimate sustainability goals. nificant reduction in aviation’s effect on tainable aviation fuel,” he said, and that new technologies, support SAF, and “We’ve been very clear recently that we climate change, Llewellyn said. such synthetic fuels would not compete explore emerging technologies such as the have the ambition to bring a zero-emis- “We are talking about making some against hydrogen. Currently, hydrogen use of hydrogen. “Yes, there are huge chal- sions commercial airliner to market in the significant decisions in the 2024 to 2025 looks promising for aircraft up to 200 lenges to overcome but they are all within early 2030s, and one of the most promising timeframes in terms of the technology passengers, but SAF or power-to-liquid our grasp,” he concluded.

different substances have been used to Report examines SAF viability in the UK make SAF, from specific terrestrial crops such as Camelina and Salicornia, to algae, by Curt Epstein to household waste, to spent cooking oils and grease, McCann said none of them Despite the UK’s status as a major air trans- industry’s right to grow,” citing the recent between conventional Jet A and sustainable offer a “silver bullet” in terms of yield and port gateway and a leading proponent of veto of a third at London Heath- fuel, which currently stands at three and a all suffer some constraints. carbon reduction, the country produces row Airport on sustainability objections. half times more per gallon. “Right now we Despite the growing viability of SAF, no sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and In an FIA Connect webinar on July 20, are asking a nascent industry, a new tech- many investors tend to look past it, con- has seen very limited consumption of the she gave a preview of the forthcoming nology to compete on a like-for-like basis sidering SAF as a “stop-gap” measure, product. To address the shortcoming, espe- research paper, which was the result of with one of the world’s most established solely intended to hold the line until future cially in light of the UK’s declared goal of dozens of interviews with industry stake- and optimized hydrocarbon supply chains,” technologies such as electric and hydro- achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, PA holders. McCann stated that the UK pos- she said. “This is not a fair fight.” gen-powered propulsion are ready, further Consulting in partnership with aerospace sesses the full supply chain required to She explained how fuel represents diluting the investment funding needed industry association ADS is preparing to foster an SAF industry, and the apparent more than 20 percent of an airline’s cost to scale production. Indeed, much of the publish a white paper to resolve what the will to do so, noting the establishment and is its biggest variable cost. With tight early-stage investment in the industry has country can do to boost adoption of SAF. just last month of the Jet Zero Council by margins, any additional surcharge for SAF come from the oil companies and airlines. “The UK is already leading the world the country’s transport secretary Grant won’t likely get passed down to the con- Of that investment, much has gone to fuel when it comes to enshrining sustainability Shapps, a move government says substan- sumer. With some forecasts calling for the technologies and less to actual production, targets in law and decarbonizing industry,” tiates its pledge to back decarbonization price per barrel of oil to stabilize at $50 to according to McCann. said Kim McCann, PA’s aviation sustain- efforts in the aviation industry. $55 for the foreseeable future in the post- Even in the biofuel arena, SAF competes ability expert. “We were the first G7 nation McCann explained that several key fac- Covid world, that could further hamper with road fuels such as biodiesel. to set the Paris climate agreement into law tors block the development and invest- investment into the sustainable fuel sector. Furthermore, the existence of disparate and the first country where that law has ment in an SAF industry in the UK, the Uncertainty regarding optimum feed- voices within the SAF industry in themselves been directly used to challenge the aviation most important being the price differential stocks remains another factor. While many continues on next page

8 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Sustainability requires a multi-faceted approach by Curt Epstein

When it comes to the issues surrounding eventually spill over into regional and sustainable aviation, there is not just one larger aircraft. He said that his company solution. That was the consensus among the has been working with the world’s major panelists participating in an FIA Connect oil companies to increase the volume of webinar titled “Sustainability—a future of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) produc- clean skies, financial and human stability.” tion, but also pointed to the exploration From the industry’s earliest commit- of nuclear power as an energy source for ments to the reduction of CO2 emissions, producing e-fuels, which could someday Etihad Airways and Boeing plan to work together starting in August on the seventh iteration of there have been three pillars on which it power electric aircraft. the ecoDemonstrator program. has hung its decarbonization ambitions. Stein added that other technologies “First of all [it will take] a relentless pur- that can offier improvements to operators “Greenliner” 787, which entered service almost laid down by the Romans,” said suit of effciency in airplane/engine com- include the company’s Ultrafan engine earlier this year. The twinjet was deliv- Douglas. “Many of them haven’t been binations,” explained Paul Stein, chief under development with Airbus, which ered with a fuel load of 30 percent SAF reorganized since. They are seldom the technology offcer at engine maker Rolls- incorporates an enormous fan. “So you have and is being used in partnership with the optimum route between A and B.” He Royce. He said that to achieve its stated a very slow-moving fan that is very quiet as airframer to explore methods of optimiza- added when you look at the world’s busier goals of reductions in carbon emissions, well as fuel-effcient,” he said. “So custom- tion. In one flight earlier this year from its airspace and their legacy protocols, there’s the industry will require an approximately ers will get other benefits, namely the noise base in Abu Dhabi to Dublin, using opti- little consideration for current aircraft 30 percent improvement in whole fleet profile of the airplane will get even lower.” mized route planning and more effcient performance from an ascent and descent effciency between now and 2050. “Sec- As a representative of the commercial airspace management such as continuous standpoint. “There’s too much fuel being ond [is] the necessity to scale up sustain- airline sector on the panel, Etihad Avi- ascents and descents, the aircraft shaved burned for all the wrong reasons,” he said. able aviation fuels to the levels required ation Group has been active in the sus- 40 minutes offi the flight, which equated UK transport secretary Grant Shapps to really make a diffierence, and the third tainability field, according to CEO Tony to a savings of three tons of CO₂. The two recently introduced a measure calling for [is] to start exploring novel technologies Douglas. “I don’t think there will be companies will continue that partnership the creation of the Jet Zero Council, to and new propulsion methods.” single giant leaps,” he told the audience. starting in August with the delivery of Eti- ensure that the British government is fully Stein noted of the latter, most of those “It’s going to be about how we use every had’s latest 787-10, which they'll use as an behind the measures required to achieve technologies are not suited, at least in opportunity to get better.” eco-demonstrator in a multi-week pro- zero carbon emissions. Among them are the short to medium timeframe, to power The airline operates one of the world’s gram to test innovative strategies. ATC modernization, which could help cut longer-haul aircraft, but he expects as largest fleets of Boeing’s fuel-efficient Indeed, the modernization of airspace carbon emissions without even taking into they mature in the e-VTOL, UAM, and 787 Dreamliner, and Douglas pointed to management is on the minds of many. account new fuels or new systems. “With short-haul sectors, such technology will the environmental learning value of its “The roads so to speak in the skies, were the algorithms we have these days, the air- craft is coming over the Atlantic, the com- puter slows it down to whatever speed, it comes in and it gets to its slot to the min- continued from previous page through 2050 and beyond. SAF will need UK, employing more than 11,000 people. ute and flies in,” he explained. “It literally could persuade investors that it is not yet to be a large part of that for the industry’s If the newly-developing SAF indus- isn’t rocket science and it’s quite literally ready for serious growth. Unfounded con- carbon emissions goals to be met. Based try cannot compete on today’s uneven possible today.” cerns due to a lack of subject education that on her research, she indicated that there playing field, the report calls upon the The panelists acknowledged that the SAF would require costly infrastructure is a definite appetite for sustainable fuels government to change the rules through industry remains one of the industrial replacement is another factor. from operators (if available at commer- various policies such as an amendment sectors hit hardest by the Covid pandemic. McCann explained that SAF is the only cially viable prices) as well as companies of the UK’s 2008 Renewable Transport “Obviously Covid dominates the aviation technology currently available to make seeking to push their sustainability goals Fuel Obligation, which mandates that a agenda at the moment,” said Douglas. a carbon emissions impact, and if and out into the supply chain. proportion of the fuel producers supply “But in no way does it overshadow the when new propulsion technologies are PA recommends a stepped strategy on come from renewable sources. Other work that was going on and the commit- ready, the industry likely will still need the way to developing what could eventu- strategies such as the introduction of a ments we previously made to sustainabil- conventional fuels for long-haul aircraft ally amount to a £2 billion industry in the price floor or cost diffierential contracts ity.” Among those effiorts is work with the can help address the imbalance and make Abu Dhabi National Fuel Company and its the business more attractive to investors work in developing SAF derived from the who desire diffiering timelines for return salcornia plant, which can grow in extraor- on investment. dinarily hostile environments such as des- McCann stressed that the industry has erts and salt marshes. He acknowledged to coalesce and speak with one voice and that while such work is promising, “the one opinion and establish an integrated economics aren’t at breakthrough level,” action plan to act as a catalyst for invest- and he said he believes that the industry ment in the UK industry. Next, there needs to bring in government and broader needs to be formalized engagement and industry players to find ways to support governance to develop proposals for the and further develop such work. Jet Zero Council on the way to develop- Tom Parsons, Air bp’s low carbon com- ing an integrated cross-industry roadmap. mercial development manager, suggested The final step, implemented as early as that economic bailout programs offiered 2021, would see the establishment of a currently or in the future to airlines attach cross-industry support network to shep- green conditions, locking them into a herd the nascent industry through com- low-carbon agenda for any subsequent mercialization and scale-up. growth. Because the industry is currently The full report, exploring and describ- experiencing so much pain due to the While sustainable aviation fuel becomes more common at some U.S. airports, the UK ing those concepts in greater detail, will Covid crisis, he cautioned that any such consumes little sustainable fuel and produces none. be available in August. conditions be applied thoughtfully.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 9 for tomorrow we need the right digital UK launches tools today.” Digital technology can significantly reduce development times and costs digital skills and serves as a key enabler in assisting the UK to achieve its goal of net-zero car- bon emissions by 2050. It also allows UK resource industry to maintain intellectual prop- erty rights and operational sovereignty, by David Donald Zahawi noted. Julia Sutcliffe, BAE Systems’ direc- Nadhim Zahawi, the UK’s minister for tor for air labs and chief technologist, business and industry, formally launched spelled out some of the areas where the Defence Digital Skills Framework digital technology can increase produc- (DDSF) on July 20 during the FIA Con- tivity, reduce development times, and nect online event. An initiative of the slash costs by around a half. The use Skills Group of the government/industry of cloud-based data-sharing infrastruc- Defence Growth Partnership, DDSF is a Digital technology stands at the heart of new defense programs such as the Tempest future ture allows “collaboration with a much portal that provides access to digital skills fighter, in turn requiring workplaces and workforces to transform their working practices and wider ecosystem of partners,” while resources to enhance the capabilities and to embrace cloud-based, collaborative development efforts and artificial intelligence. facilitating the passage of innovative productivity of defense industry personnel technologies and solutions through the and to permit the wider dissemination of stage and will develop over the coming artificial intelligence and data analytics design process, she explained. new advances in digital technology. months, drawing on feedback from users. can bring to industry, not only in terms An example of reduced development Currently DDSF has 13 companies Digital technology is at the heart of design and development, but also in time is wind tunnel testing. Using tra- enrolled and hopes to attract many more of the so-called Fourth Industrial manufacturing processes as well as in ditional processes, wind tunnel testing to enhance and expand a common digital Revolution, and the UK stands as an through-life support and sustainment. is time-consuming and costly, requir- skills base within the UK defense industry. acknowledged leader in harnessing However, as Zahawi pointed out, “We ing designers to make numerous mod- The portal is now in the proof-of-concept the potential that technologies such as can’t stand still. To develop the products els and iteratively test them until they find the optimum configuration. Using advanced digital technology, engineers can perform much of that work using artificial intelligence and predictive UK defense industry demonstrates resilience during Covid crisis analytics. Large datasets can be gen- erated rapidly, after which algorithms The UK defense industry has applied its way it could, albeit with the caveat that the The Defense Suppliers Forum (DSF), a can be “trained” to analyze the data to capacity to bring together all of its various nation’s defense remained the first priority. monthly meeting of government agencies extract the optimal solutions for real- elements to tackle Covid challenges, all the As a result, DE&S rapidly reassigned 300 and the defense industry, has served as a key world testing. while continuing to deliver on programs people to Covid-related activities, putting enabler in the rapid engagement of industry. Moreover, many more innovation- vital to national security, stressed Simon their procurement and logistics skills to The DSF became the main platform through based subject-matter experts and aca- Bollom, CEO of UK forces procurement good use to meet the principal challenges. which industry increased its collaboration and demic institutions can get involved in and support agency Defence Equipment The two most urgent issues were the shared relevant technologies by rapidly pool- the design process thanks to the cloud, and Support (DE&S), during FIA Connect’s provision of personal protective equipment ing best practices and the results of experi- so their innovations can be evaluated and July 21 panel session on defense resilience (PPE) and ventilators. DE&S procurement mentation. The rapid implementation of a incorporated at a much earlier stage of during the Covid pandemic. experts rapidly placed orders worth more command and control network that leveraged the design process than would normally “Defense is set up to deal with crisis and than £6 billion, resulting in around 11 billion the advantages of digital communications be possible. contingency, so if you look back at the con- individual items of PPE acquired. proved crucial to meeting those challenges. The requirement for digital expertise flicts we’ve been involved in, mobilizing as At the same time, the agency With the aid of the ADS aerospace industry is growing: Microsoft’s Hugh Milward a whole force—the military, civil service, approached the ventilator challenge in organization, the DFS expanded to bring in reported that research conducted by the and industry colleagues—has always been much the same way it would an urgent the ideas of a greater number of small and company had shown that the military something we’ve done well,” said Bollom. military capability requirement, reaching medium-sized enterprises. would need around 8,000 digital tech- “Covid was for us another crisis. It was a dif- out to the defense industry in particular At the same time, meeting the crisis nology posts over the next few years, ferent crisis, but it brought out the best in for rapid engineering solutions and supply was undertaken during a period where the while in industry that figure stands at the defense enterprise.” chain establishment. DE&S’s warehouse delivery of major defense programs contin- around 40,000. With an aging work- In the early days of the crisis, the UK also tackled the task of managing spare ued unabated. The designation of defense force in the UK defense industry, that Cabinet Offce called on DE&S to support parts and distribution. “I’m very proud of workforces as key workers considerably would require significant additional the National Health Service in whatever the contribution they made,” said Simon. aided the effiort. training of current personnel as well As a result, the UK’s defense industry as an increased flow of young people demonstrated admirable levels of collabora- entering the sector. tion and agility, attributes that most in industry “Re-skilling” and “up-skilling” the would like to see being retained in a post- workforce is essential to gaining maxi- Covid environment. “We’d like to hang on to mum benefit from digital technologies, that sense of purpose and sense of collabora- but there will inevitably be some inertia. tion,” said Kevin Craven, CEO of Serco UK and During the panel session that followed Europe. “The collaboration was outstanding the opening addresses, QinetiQ’s Vicky and the agility was pretty good as well.” Weise pointed out many of the younger There is also a similar desire on the gov- generations are already “digital natives” ernment side. “We need to be lighter on our and embrace the kind of advantages that feet, more agile,” said Bollom. “Institutional- technology can bring in terms of sharing izing what is good in terms of new working data and communicating. Implementing practices is what we must do.” He added that digital processes could benefit in many While industry has been tackling problems such as ventilators, the RAF itself has provided the defense enterprise needs to remain vig- areas from a form of role-reversal, in Covid support through helicopters and fixed-wing transports undertaking emergency ilant and prepared for rapid reaction should which the more junior members of the medical evacuation missions. This Puma performed such operations in Scotland. a second Covid spike surface. D.D. workforce could serve prominently in educating the older members.

10 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Michael Romanowski, director of the FAA’s Policy and Innovation Division, represented the U.S. agency on the panel. “I am the regulator,” he said. “It is my job to look out for the safety of the system” and the vehicles that will operate in the UAM environment. The FAA is now work- ing with 30 companies in its Innovation Center to help them on the path toward certification of their UAM vehicles. But certification is only one step. Helping the public understand the safety of such vehicles will be another important factor, he explained. The U.S. Air Force is also pursuing UAM Joby Aviation is one technologies and is eager to help develop of eight partners such platforms. “There is so much more developing eVTOL innovation happening outside the gov- aircraft for air taxi ernment,” said Will Roper, U.S. Air Force operations Uber assistant secretary for acquisition, tech- plans to start as nology, and logistics. “We have to get soon as 2023. outside our walls and where innovation is happening. UAM is on the cusp of fly- ing us around as the Jetsons promised in 1962. When we look at UAM and what it may not be long until “everyday flight” a big impact that could be for the econ- Urban air mobility holds becomes feasible “through the power of omy, the Air Force cannot stand by idly the platform that Uber brings through its and hope the market evolves. We think huge network of demand,” he said. we can be some of the first adopters of promise of future efficiency Real estate developer Ross Perot Jr.’s this technology.” experience creating the infrastructure The panelists addressed questions by Matt Thurber that underlies the massive 27,000-acre that are likely on a lot of peoples’ minds AllianceTexas development will help Alli- as more money pours into UAM devel- Everyone is talking about urban air mobil- together a panel of experts on July 20 in a ance partner with Uber to build its infra- opments. How to make UAM operation ity (UAM) vehicles and how they are going session titled “Elevated Mobility: getting structure, he explained. Perot’s company routine is a big question and formed the to bring aviation to the masses, but what from demo to do!” is also working with Deloitte University backdrop for much of the session. is it really going to take to make this new Eric Allison, head of Uber Elevate, on the Deloitte Innovation Zone, he Uber’s Allison said efforts need to cen- style of transportation happen for a large emphasized his company’s commitment said, “on how to bring these companies ter on regulation, capital, and timing, and segment of the population? To address to UAM, starting on this challenge three together to work on the next generation if any of those things does not happen those questions, FIA Connect pulled years ago. Technology is moving so quickly, of transportation.” in proper sequence, the market will not develop properly. “So when the vehicles are ready, the infrastructure is coming on line, and the regulations are in place, Stratasys to ship fourth 3D printer for BAE’s Samlesbury plant then they can operate in a commercially relevant way.” BAE Systems has ordered another F900 The printers operate at the BAE Sys- costs of manufacturing. Romanowski pointed out that when 3D printer from Stratasys to add to the tems site at Samlesbury in Lancashire, Fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3D he speaks with local community groups, three it already operates. The aerospace where the company is creating a “Factory printers from Stratasys already have come their big concern is whether UAMs will giant has been a Stratasys customer since of the Future” that embraces a range of into use for the production of a variety of be flying over their houses. It is important 2006, and it bought its latest printer via “disruptive” technologies and processes to aerospace-related items, ranging from to communicate, he explained, and “make local partner Laser Lines. improve productivity and drive down the design verification prototypes through man- sure the community understands. We can ufacturing tools to end-use parts. Employ- make the vehicles quiet, but where will ing additive manufacturing has allowed they fly?” The most likely routes will be BAE Systems to achieve “significant cost over freeways, mimicking how helicop- and lead time reductions.” ters operate, but eventually as people While the new 3D printer will increase realize how quietly UAM vehicles oper- additive manufacturing capacity, it will ate, random programming could be used also help in the exploitation of new mate- to create routes that only occasionally fly rials, including the carbon-fiber-filled FDM over a particular home. Nylon 12CF material, which BAE uses to The Air Force’s Roper is working create robust and lightweight repair and with government agencies like the FAA development tools. and NASA and commercial entities like “We can rapidly 3D print one-off parts Uber Elevate on UAM development. for new products, replace tools more For too long, the Air Force has relied easily and cost-effectively, and maintain on military- unique assets, but now it production operations when hardware is wants the same systems that companies delayed,” said Greg Flanagan, additive design for commercial markets. “We’re manufacturing lead at BAE Systems-Air. changing from being a procurer to being “If supply chains become disrupted, hav- a partner,” he said. “We’re an ecosys- ing this production power in-house also tem of like-minded users. It’s part and enables us to be more agile as a business parcel of our American history. We were and continue to best serve the needs of almost born as an aerospace nation. It’s BAE Systems already runs three Stratasys F900 3D printers at its Samlesbury factory. our customers.” D.D. fun to have this opportunity right at our doorstep.”

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 11 Roland Berger calls for incremental green steps by Charles Alcock

Even allowing for the hopefully short- published a road map for the key steps term reduction of airline traffc volumes that it advocates the industry follow. due to the Covid-19 pandemic, carbon First, explained Sachdeva, airlines must dioxide (COffi) emissions will triple by continue replacing older, less effcient air- 2050, according to aviation consultancy craft in their fleets with new models like Roland Berger. In fact, current annual lev- the Boeing 737 Max and Airbus A320neo, els of 1 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions which deliver around a 15 percent reduc- had appeared likely to quadruple by 2050, tion in fuel burn. He acknowledged that but now emission levels are set to fall the immediate fallout from Covid has during 2020, followed by some “muted dampened fleet replacement plans but growth” anticipated for the next few said that the industry cannot abandon the years, according to a new study released e₂ort for long. The company estimates Hydrogen propulsion system pioneer ZeroAvia has been flight-testing a converted Piper M600 by the company on July 21 during the FIA that the measure could deliver an overall piston single and has laid plans to power larger aircraft in the future. Connect event. 25 percent cut in emissions. However, according to project man- As a second step, Roland Berger said with renewable energy); and introducing view, hydrogen fuel cell-based propulsion ager Nikhil Sachdeva, CO2 emissions are that authorities must reform air traffc hybrid-electric (with sustainable aviation systems are the most practical for aircraft not the only challenging aspect of avia- management to make more effcient use fuel) and/or hydrogen-powered aircraft. seating fewer than 100 passengers, while tion’s environmental footprint. Factor- of available airspace, both in terms of The company estimates that switching hydrogen combustion systems will work ing in other contaminants such as oxides route and altitude optimization. While to sustainable aviation fuel for longer- best for larger aircraft. from nitrogen, water vapor, sulfites, soot, that could marginally increase fuel burn, haul flights could yield another 10 percent Last week, the European Commission contrails, and aviation-induced cloud- the moves would contribute to a 10 per- savings in emissions. That would leave committed €300 billion to support a com- iness, the sector’s impact could end up cent overall reduction in emissions, said another 10 percent portion of current prehensive, multi-industry program to three times higher than that of CO2 alone the consultancy. emissions that would need to be nullified boost the availability of so-called green by 2050. The Roland Berger report spells out by paying for carbon o₂sets. hydrogen (i.e. produced in sustainable In Roland Berger’s view, the indus- how the industry could achieve a 15 According to Roland Berger partner ways). As things stand, Wechenhain said try needs to take an urgent and multi- percent improvement from each of the Uwe Wechenhain, hydrogen carries sig- there is insuffcient capacity to produce pronged approach if it will have any following measures: optimizing flight nificant potential to improve aviation’s enough green hydrogen for widespread chance of achieving a widely shared stated trajectories; introducing battery-based environmental performance if industry aviation use, but he sees that situation objective of so-called net zero emissions electric aircraft for flights of up to can overcome various challenges, such changing after 2030, with prices coming in the next 30 years. The company has 1,500 km (as long as they are recharged as cost and lack of infrastructure. In his down in the process.

transport is critical,” said Zahawi. He con- their own carbon footprints. “We need UK aims to decarbonize firmed that UK transport secretary Grant to move on this and be ready to work Shapps is planning to launch a consulta- with Boeing and Airbus so that we can tion on aviation and climate change later take advantage of breakthroughs in tech- aviation during Covid fight this year and said that the government is nology,” she commented. committed to helping the UK industry Former Airbus chief operating officer Efforts to achieve carbon-free flights soon, bringing together senior leadership take a leading role in the field. Tom Williams, who is now leading the must form a key part of plans to rebuild from government and industry to set a According to Giles Wilkes, a senior UK Aerospace Supply Chain Taskforce the aviation industry, according to UK strategy for achieving the goal of net- research fellow with the Institute of established by industry group ADS, said business, energy, and industrial strategy zero emissions for long- and short-haul Government, it might prove compli- that it is no longer optional for aviation minister Nadhim Zahawi. Speaking in a air transport by 2050. cated to introduce a workable mix of to decarbonize. “Although air transport webinar as part of the FIA Connect event “While we are combating Covid we need incentives and disincentives to drive is still only 3 percent of carbon dioxide on July 21, he reported that the newly to still work on longer-term priorities progress in making aviation greener. emissions, the rate is doubling every announced Jet Zero Council will meet for the industry, and decarbonization of However, he pointed to the fact that 15 years and if we don’t address this wind energy growth has surpassed we will come under [social] pressure, expectations as evidence of the possi- especially from younger people who ble progress. are more conscious [of environmental “There is not the equivalent demand- concerns],” he said. led trend that we have seen in the elec- Williams proposed that governments tricity sector,” he suggested. “In current introduce financial incentives for airlines circumstances, it will be hard to make to replace old, ineffcient aircraft with flying more expensive with taxes [that new equipment in a move that he com- would discourage growth in aircraft emis- pared to the so-called “cash for clunkers” sions], but there might be progress [on campaign to get old automobiles o₂ the wider adoption of new technology] if elec- road. He said that aerospace companies tricity prices keep falling.” wanting to introduce new technology will Mandy Ridyard, finance director with have to engage urgently with Boeing and UK-based flight controls and compo- Airbus with workable proposals needed nents manufacturer Produmax, called by around 2027 or 2028, “or you won’t on the government to provide incen- be on the next-generation aircraft due in tives for companies throughout the sup- 2035.” In his view, hydrogen propulsion Faradair plans to build its proposed Bio Electric Hybrid Aircraft at Duxford in the UK as part of ply chain to retrain employees in green systems will emerge as the dominant efforts to lower carbon emissions from air transport. technology and take steps to reduce platform for decarbonization. C.A.

12 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Deloitte sees headwinds for commercial aviation by Curt Epstein

Commercial aviation is “facing an uphill cancellations and deferrals, the company battle” as it attempts to adjust to new suggests global commercial aircraft deliv- worldwide crises wrought by the Covid- eries this year could range from 650 to 690 19 pandemic, according to global finan- aircraft, a slip of as much as 50 percent

cial audit and consulting firm Deloitte. In compared with 2018’s peak and a drastic INTOSH c its recently issued 2020 Aerospace and downgrade from the company’s initial

Defense Outlook midyear update, the 2020 production estimate of 1,900. That DAVID M firm noted that it sees a prolonged recov- number also takes into account delays in Global financial audit and consulting firm Deloitte believes commercial aviation traffic could ery for the sector, which has seen a signif- the return to service and resumption of take as much as three years to rebound to pre-Covid levels. icant reduction in both international and deliveries for Boeing’s troubled 737 Max. domestic passenger traffc, particularly on Deloitte suggests that airlines will ini- growth as security threats have increased, result in relative stability in the defense the heels of a production decline in 2019. tially see heightened demand for short- requiring governments to continue boost- sector,” the report noted. It said that The International Air Transport Associ- haul and domestic travel as the effiects of ing their defense budgets, which Deloitte despite effiorts by the U.S. Department of ation expects this year’s passenger traffc the pandemic ease. Estimates call for the expects to reach an estimated $1.9 trillion Defense to ensure that the defense indus- to decline by as much as 55 percent from shortening of the average trip length by worldwide in 2020. According to Deloitte, trial base remains strong during the Covid the previous year, and Deloitte stated that approximately 8.5 percent globally, which most of that growth will come from crisis, supply chains could see temporary levels could possibly take as long as three could eventually lead to higher demand increased spending in the U.S. and other disruptions due to their complexity and years to recover to the pre-Covid state. In for narrowbody aircraft, but Deloitte areas such as China, Japan, and India as geographic exposure. a recent survey conducted by the company, expects a bleak outlook for new orders in well as by members of NATO, which con- Deloitte stated that the result of the 73 percent of respondents indicated they the second half of the year. tinue to feel pressure to reach a defense upcoming U.S. presidential election in did not feel safe flying right now. Among The global commercial aircraft backlog spending target of 2 percent of GDP. November will likely not affiect defense U.S. respondents, 77 percent said they as of the end of May totaled some 14,100 The U.S. defense industry will likely not budgets before 2022. would likely not take a domestic flight for aircraft, only slightly below the previous feel significant effiects from the pandemic U.S. foreign military sales will also leisure purposes in the next three months, year’s level of 14,300. In the long term, the due to the increased spending by the cur- remain steady in the face of global threats and 86 percent stated they were unlikely to company sees a rebound in demand with rent administration. “Though the rate of and will likely add to the performance fly internationally during that same span. a production of nearly 40,000 units antic- growth may decrease or flatten in 2020, of the defense sector, reckons Deloitte. Against that backdrop, with several ipated over the next two decades. the United States’ emphasis on firming While such opportunities could spur an air carriers already announcing order The military sector has seen sustained up its military capabilities is expected to increase for U.S. contractors, Deloitte cautioned a strengthening U.S. dol- lar could have a dampening effiect, as it could allow European defense exporters to become more price-competitive. EAG Launches 70-Seat Hybrid-electric Regional Aircraft Overall, Deloitte’s analysts said, the aerospace and defense industry “needs to Electric Aviation Group (EAG) has announced prepare for a hard landing” in the wake plans for a 70-seat hybrid-electric regional of the pandemic. It believes those com- airliner, which the UK group says will be panies that embraced digital transforma- ready to enter service in 2028. The Bristol, tion in terms of the adoption of robotics UK-based start-up unveiled its design on and automation in their manufacturing July 20 to coincide with the opening of the processes will more effiectively weather FIA Connect event. the crisis, along with those that have fol- According to EAG, the short takeoff and lowed “a more focused capital discipline landing Hybrid Electric Regional Aircraft strategy” in the past. Companies could (HERA) will deliver range of up to 800 nm. also leverage digital technologies to man- The company says it expects to be able to age a remote workforce, as well as ensure offer an all-electric version of the narrow- health and safety on the factory floor. body airliner by around 2030. Some will no doubt view the crisis as an The current design shows four sets of opportunity to accelerate their adoption propellers across the leading edge of its and integration of digital technologies to fixed wing. EAG has not specified what type Electric Aviation Group says its HERA airliner will carry 70 passengers up to around 800 nm. help them not just better survive business of engine it will use to generate electricity disruptions but to recover and thrive. for HERA’s motors. It said that the aircraft Iqbal told AIN the company intends to speed of around 275 knots, and a takeoff Regarding merger and acquisition activ- will feature what it calls Gear Assisted assemble a flight demonstrator aircraft based field length of less than 4,000 feet. ity, the company expects a sluggish second Takeoff Run (GATOR) technology to support on an existing Bombardier Dash 7 or Dash 8 “We expect this to be a great example half of the year as the pandemic contin- its short takeoff capability while reducing twin-turboprop, in order to evaluate its planned of British design, engineering, and build,” ues to affiect demand, particularly in the energy requirements. propulsion system. It expects to start flight tests said Iqbal. “Not only will the development commercial aerospace sector. Liquidity According to EAG founder and CEO with the aircraft within the next four years of HERA help the [UK] Department for could also become a consideration as the Kamran Iqbal, he has held talks with mul- before building the airframe for the HERA. Transport accelerate its ‘Jet Zero’ carbon year progresses. Such concerns have even tiple leading aerospace suppliers that EAG estimates that it will need $5 billion reduction goals, it will also help create job led to the dissolution of deals announced have expressed a willingness to partner in to get the HERA into series production. The opportunities in the aerospace manufactur- pre-Covid, such as Boeing’s agreement to what EAG calls its JetZero Consortium. The company is looking to raise capital through ing, engineering, and services industries acquire a controlling stake in Embraer’s group is unrelated to the UK government’s a mix of government funding and private post-Brexit. This represents the future of commercial aircraft division. It noted recently formed Jet Zero Council, estab- sector investors. both passenger and cargo flights interna- that the U.S. has recently taken measures lished to advance plans for the develop- Plans call for the aircraft to have a max- tionally, and as an opportunity for invest- aimed at restricting opportunistic pur- ment of zero-carbon-emission . imum takeoff weight of 55,000 pounds, ment it could not be better timed.” C.A. chases by foreign entities during the pan- demic, especially those from China.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 13 Covid dents F-35 production as development continues by David Donald

Considering that the Lockheed Martin Lockheed Martin is keen to maintain F-35 is the largest global defense program the financial health of its suppliers, espe- currently under way, with a vast number cially the smaller Tier 2 and 3 companies. of suppliers—both domestic and interna- To maintain its major defense contrac- tional—in the supply chain tiers, it comes tors and their key programs during the as no surprise that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, the U.S. government introduced has affected its production rate. an accelerated program payment scheme “We expect to see F-35 delays of two that released more than $1 billion in F-35 F-35As from the 388th and 419th Fighter Wings perform an “elephant walk” during a Combat to three months,” said Darren Sekiguchi, payments to Lockheed Martin, all of Power exercise at Hill AFB, Utah in January. The Lockheed Martin program has now delivered Lockheed Martin v-p of F-35 production which has cascaded into the supply chain 540 aircraft to U.S. and allied air arms. during an FIA Connect event. “At this to ensure that it remains intact. time, we expect to see impacts of 18 to 24 The F-35 production line has delivered and technology. “It will enable interoper- underway is to the aircraft’s data infor- aircraft in 2020. However, we will accel- 540 aircraft, and more than 1,000 pilots ability, new datalinks, [and] the connec- mation system, which lies at the heart of erate production when we return to pre- and 10,000 maintainers are now trained tivity that is so important in the modern logistics, maintenance, training, opera- Covid-19 conditions to recover as many to fly and work on the aircraft. Eight warfare world.” tions, and technical support planning. The delayed aircraft as possible. This year’s countries have F-35s operating from their New weapons are coming too, said original Autonomic Logistics Information delivery target is 141 aircraft, and we con- territories, and six services have declared Bulnes. “We’re going to be easily adding System (ALIS) design emerged in the mid- tinue to work towards that goal.” initial operational capability (IOC). upwards of 20 new weapons over the next 2000s and has not benefitted from any Lockheed Martin designed the F-35 pro- The aircraft continues to expand its few years,” he noted. “That gives the war- technological refreshes. duction system to be as flexible and resil- capability and is currently undergoing a fighter the flexibility needed when they go To replace it, Lockheed Martin has ient as possible so that alternative souces program known as Tech Refresh 3, which into theater.” developed the Operational Data Inte- can cover single-point supply problems, provides additional computer capacity. The automatic ground collision avoid- grated Network (ODIN), which lever- but the worldwide effects of Covid-19 “That computational capability allows us ance system, which has been operational ages huge advances in digital technology have inevitably affected the supply chain. to have additional new software modes, in the F-16 for some time, has proved to create a system that can handle far Sekiguchi hopes that production rates to be able to use new information and an important addition from a safety more data. The company expects ODIN can return to pre-Covid rates by “the late fuse it in different ways from the sensors,” standpoint. to achieve IOC next year and reach full summer or early fall this year.” said Santi Bulnes, v-p of F-35 engineering Arguably the most important upgrade operational capability in 2022.

is that half the sector loses out,” said on more partners. For Tempest, the UK Europe on course for two Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military has signed up Italy and Sweden to join in aerospace at the International Institute the development, bringing in companies of Strategic Studies during an FIA Con- such as Saab, GKN Aerospace Sweden, future combat programs nect panel session. For countries that lose Leonardo Italy, Elettronica, Avia Aero, out it would be “very damaging” he said, and MBDA Italy. Spain has joined France Since the UK announced in July 2018 its near term. Moreover, as each program adding that “there’s a very strong national and Germany in their efforts. Tempest future combat air system (FCAS), progresses further, the stakes involved element in all of this.” Claude Alber, a senior Collins Aero- which followed the launch of the Franco- for both sides increase to the point where That “national element” sees the UK, space executive, offered some middle- German Système de Combat Aérien Futur conceding defeat carries with it huge pen- which leads Tempest, pitted against ground possibilities, in which partners (SCAF or FCAS) weeks before, specula- alties that strike hard at the very reasons France, which is the lead nation for SCAF, could co-develop individual technologies tion about whether Europe can afford two the projects were launched in the first and neither would likely give up their while still taking into account differences programs of such magnitude has led, in place, particularly in terms of technolog- leadership roles. Robin Southwell, former in operational concepts. In that way, costs turn, to repeated calls for the two projects ical standing in the global defense mar- CEO of Airbus UK, noted that “France could drop for both programs without to merge. ket and the beneficial effects on national and Germany are clear in their direc- denting national leadership ambitions at For now, though, such a harmonization economies and technological capabilities. tion” and warned that while they might a major program level. of efforts appears unlikely, at least in the “The problem at the European level welcome the UK’s involvement, it might This already is taking place in a fash- be limited. “Involved is a word of many ion with the missile work undertaken by meanings,” he commented. MBDA, which is a major partner in both While in general scope the two com- projects. The new range of weapons under peting concepts have great similarities of development by the company on both operational employment—both feature sides of the English Channel is applicable “combat cloud” connectivity and the use to both Tempest and SCAF systems. The of multiple uninhabited “loyal wingmen” company’s recent success in arming all or “remote carriers”—there are some dif- three European combat aircraft types— ferences. For instance, the Tempest might, Gripen, Rafale, and Typhoon—with the as some suggest, carry an optionally- Meteor long-range air-to-air missile is crewed capability, whereas SCAF is envi- proof that such arrangements can work. sioned for only piloted operations. Alber also dismissed any difficulties If, as appears likely, there are two FCAS in divisions of multinational companies programs in Europe, the problem remains working on opposite sides of the Tem- that, at present, the huge development pest/SCAF divide as they are local prod- costs must be amortized across fewer uct lines developed entirely within the Development of two future combat air systems in Europe—the Tempest (illustrated) and SCAF/ customers. Achieving the “critical mass” framework of national sovereign intel- FCAS—now seems assured in the short term, but long-term success appears more achievable necessary to reduce the individual costs lectual property that exists in their own with further investment from additional international partners. to partner nations would involve taking countries. D.D.

14 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com FAA review of 737 Max reaches its final stages by Gregory Polek

As members of the FAA’s Aircraft Eval- uation Group (AEG) and Boeing flight test pilots prepared to perform the 737 Max’s July 10 operational suitability flights between Boeing Field in Seattle and Moses Lake, Washington, industry observers and airline customers alike eagerly awaited the results of three days of certification flying that ended a week and a half earlier. Described by an FAA spokesman as a routine part of any certi- fication effort, the operational suitability flights marked one of the last procedural

hurdles the program must clear before AMBROSE BARRY the agency issues its final approval for the Boeing 737 Max jets sit in storage at Moses Lake, Washington. airplane to return to service. Before that happens, authorities must of the change, but “key” agency certifica- Boeing—known as Level B training—for Once it rescinds the grounding order, determine whether or not the software tion engineers and personnel responsible 737 Max pilots already qualified to fly the FAA will retain its authority to issue changes engineers made to the flight con- for approving the level of airline pilot the Boeing 737-800. According to the IG airworthiness certificates and export trol systems met design criteria. During training told the IG’s office they did not. report, the outcome met with Boeing’s certificates for all new 737 Max airplanes the series of certification flights, test The report also revealed that because “overarching” goal of gaining a common manufactured since the grounding and pilots would typically fly so-called har- Boeing’s safety analysis did not assess type rating for pilots moving to the Max perform in-person, individual reviews of dovers, during which control surfaces system-level safety risks as catastrophic, from the NG largely because it limited each aircraft. Those reviews, said Borfitz, deflect to their maximum automated limit, the company’s engineers designed MCAS costs by avoiding simulator training. will require the FAA to commit far more according to retired Boeing designated to rely on data from just one of the two Furthermore, required training did not resources to delivery authorizations than engineering representative (DER) and flight control computers associated with include pilot response to automated usual, given that regulations allow for FAA organization designation authoriza- the angle-of-attack sensors. MCAS activation, added the report. ODA personnel to release the airplanes tion (ODA) administrator Mike Borfitz. Although Boeing did not communicate for delivery in normal circumstances. “I would also imagine there would be a lot to the FAA the formal safety risk assess- System Safety Inspectors will have to conduct a review of analysis of the two angle-of-attack vanes,” ments related to MCAS until November According to Borfitz, Boeing’s failure to of manufacturing records, including Borfitz added. “I would imagine there 2016 and January 2017, more than four rank as catastrophic the level of system approved corrective actions for typical would be a lot of work into the reliability years into the five-year certification pro- safety risks in the MCAS also might have deviations such as mis-drilled holes, of those things. What happens if there’s a cess, FAA managers told the IG’s office allowed it to avoid the need for simulator deviations in materials or processes, as disconnect between the two? Because that’s that “it isn’t unusual” for manufacturers to training. well as a thorough review of the more where things went south on them.” complete and submit safety assessments The FAA’s Flight Standardization Board critical design changes such as software Perhaps most vitally, testing will toward the end of the certification process. (FSB) and the Joint Operations Evalua- revision levels. Returning airplanes from center on the airplane’s maneuvering Meanwhile, because Boeing presented tion Board (JOEB)—which includes inter- storage is another process the FAA likely characteristics augmentation system the software as a modification to the national partners from Canada, Europe, needs to review. (MCAS), a malfunction of which led to 737’s existing speed trim system that and Brazil—will evaluate minimum pilot “Those inspectors are going to go out and the twin crashes in October 2018 and would activate only in limited conditions, training requirements, including the need they’re going to take a look at the airplanes, March 2019 that killed 346 people and the FAA did not emphasize MCAS in for simulator time. The FSB will issue a they’re going to first and foremost ensure the Max’s now 16-month grounding by its certification efforts and, therefore, a draft report for public comment address- that the software load on each airplane is global aviation authorities. more detailed review of the system did ing the groups’ findings before the FAA correct and appropriate and the paperwork “The software is going to be a huge, not occur between agency engineers and publishes a final FSB report. is all correct,” explained Borfitz. huge deal…I would imagine they’d be Boeing. Rather, the FAA concentrated Other tasks include an FAA review Inspectors might also review what looking at MCAS failures in all phases of its efforts on what it considered high- of Boeing’s final design documentation Borfitz also described as a “stack of infor- flight, that being takeoff, departure, cruise, risk areas such as the airplane’s larger to evaluate compliance with all agency mation” known as material review board approach, and landing, that sort of thing,” engines, fly-by-wire spoilers, and landing regulations. The multi-agency Technical (MRB) documentation that follows each explained Borfitz. “It would just be a mat- gear changes. Advisory Board (TAB) will also review airplane during the production process. ter of wringing out every possibility for “From everything I’ve seen, it appears to the final Boeing submission and issue a “The MRB is a pretty rigorous process this system to fail in.” me that the MCAS fault was overlooked,” final report before the FAA determines and it’s part of the production approval,” According to a Department of Trans- said Borfitz. “And it appears to me that compliance. The FAA then must issue a he explained. “An inspector might want to portation Inspector General’s report it was undervalued…understated by the Continued Airworthiness Notification to look into the MRBs just to do a spot check issued on July 1, Boeing failed to submit Boeing Company. You can only regulate the International Community (CANIC) through that paperwork, but first and certification documents to the FAA on what you know. That’s the kind of thing of pending safety actions and publish foremost is to be sure the software load modifications to the MCAS, including sig- that I really hang my hat on, that the FAA an airworthiness directive (AD) that is correct and the process is appropriate. nificantly increasing the system’s ability can only regulate what they’re told.” addresses the known problems that led Typically they don’t do that; everything is to lower the aircraft’s nose automatically Following the start of flight testing in to the grounding. The AD will advise oper- just delegated and the MIDO [FAA manu- under certain conditions. According to 2016, the FAA’s Flight Standards Service ators of needed corrective actions before facturing inspection district office] folks the report, FAA flight test personnel knew approved a training plan proposed by aircraft may re-enter commercial service. just review the process.”

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 15 UK aero, defense industry ask government for help by Charles Alcock

Aerospace and defense industry leaders announced. He said that his department on July 20 called on the UK government and the Department for Transport will to urgently increase support for compa- jointly oversee the so-called JetZero nies to survive the Covid-19 crisis. Speak- project, which is aimed at bringing a zero- ing during the opening ceremony for the carbon long-range airliner into commer- online FIA Connect event being held in cial service by 2050. place of the Farnborough International By way of comparison, Wood pointed Airshow, senior executives from Airbus, out the French government recently com- Rolls-Royce, Leonardo, BAE Systems, mitted around ff1.5 billion ($1.7 billion) Meggitt, and Safran made the case for an specifically to support the development alliance between industry and govern- of emissions-free aircraft. The German ment to keep up levels of investment in government also has pledged signifi- key areas of research and development cantly higher levels of support than its and to ensure that the supply chain UK counterparts. remains viable to support a recovery Asked whether the UK government is many now expect to take until around the doing enough to support a key industry middle of this decade. that currently supports around 375,000 Meggitt CEO Tony Wood, who is also jobs, Woods responded: “This is a key president of UK industry association question for the UK and there is no ADS, spelled out four ways he would like doubt that the UK industry is under Engine maker Rolls-Royce has experienced a significant decline in demand for its civil aircraft to see government working more closely severe strain. This is a big opportunity engines, forcing it to reduce its workforce. with companies to pull through what he for government and industry to come called “the gravest crisis we have ever together and accelerate funding for a commented. Airbus’s initial response has government], but since the budget is felt in the commercial aviation industry.” sustainable future.” been to stabilize the European aerospace stretched we must demonstrate value for He spoke after several speakers pointed This week, ADS is set to hold talks group for the possible start of a ramp-up money,” he concluded. He confirmed that out that the French and German gov- with the government and it hopes to con- in operations from 2022, but Faury BAE has recommitted to hiring a record ernments have already committed much clude further agreements on the sort of warned that he can’t rule out having to number of 800 young apprentices. larger amounts of financial support for partnership it seeks. “This is one sector deal with another crisis at that point in Safran Seats GB, the UK division of the their national aerospace sectors, while that can deliver strongly for the country terms of longer-term effiects from the cabin interiors business of French group the UK response has so far centered on in terms of intellectual property from pandemic or some other global problem. Safran, is a prime example of a company that short-term relief to protect jobs. research and development and high- According to Faury, Airbus accepts that has felt the fallout from Covid-19. CEO Vic- value jobs for the future,” he argued. it might emerge from Covid-19 with the toria Foy said that it first felt the effiects as “And we want to be able to get the UK company at around the same size as it was early as late February, when airline custom- back to its number-two position on the 10 or 15 years ago. “What matters is that ers started reducing orders and that there global [aerospace] stage.” we can get back in the race and be able had then been a second dip in demand from Wood also urged the government to to invest again,” he said. “Decarbonized around April as OEM customers Airbus and accelerate public spending on defense, flight is vital and it is probably even more Boeing cut back production. The company space, and security programs to provide important now to make the right invest- is in the process of cutting around 300 of its financial support to key suppliers who are ment in this so, paradoxically, we have 1,200 jobs in the UK. Tony Wood, suffiering from a steep decline in the com- fewer means but more need to invest now. However, Foy added that OEMs have ADS president mercial side of their businesses. To further But I think we are on the right path, facing shown a willingness to work closely with alleviate financial pressures as short-term up to reality and not in denial about what their suppliers to provide help in the wake relief for furloughed workers comes to an Covid has done.” of the rescheduling of orders for airliner end in the coming weeks, he urged the gov- BAE Systems CEO Charles Woodburn seats. “We have worked very closely with “The gravest ernment to work with the British Business told the FIA Connect audience that even them throughout the crisis and we will Bank to offier additional funding means. though as much as 90 percent of the come out of this together,” she concluded. crisis we have Acknowledging recent government group’s business is defense-related, it has Leonardo CEO Alessandro Profumo ever felt in the support to incentivize companies to not been immune to the steep decline in said that the Italian group has stepped up commercial aviation continue apprenticeship schemes, Wood commercial aerospace. He pointed out that its Leap 2020 long-term planning proj- said that apprentices on current training many of BAE’s key suppliers are heavily ect with key suppliers. Explaining that industry.” programs will need support to complete exposed to a loss of civil market revenues. 80 percent of Leonardo’s procurement them and secure continued employment. In his view, the defense industry could resides with 20 percent of its suppliers, Wood called for a doubling of govern- “It is the younger and less experienced potentially play a role in bolstering strug- he said that the group aims for further ment support for the UK’s Aerospace end of the workforce that is hard for gling companies to preserve the long-term rationalization of its supply chain over Technology Institute (ATI) to support the companies to support in the current sit- capability of the supply chain. He said the next 10 years. advancement of technology to make avi- uation, and so we would like the govern- that the UK government’s current review “We want to reduce the capital needed to ation environmentally sustainable. ATI, ment to further enhance its support for of the defense and security requirements support the supply chain and we have cre- which brings together 100 experts from this effiort,” he stated. should also consider how the industry can ated a training system for SMEs,” he said. across industry and academia, is leading Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said that support economic prosperity by main- “We need more large suppliers and we are the FlyZero program to develop zero- “the gravest crisis in our history” is not taining jobs and the industrial base. measuring key performance indicators to carbon . one that even the company’s worst-case Woodburn said that the Tempest future achieve this target, involving more than Earlier on July 20, Alok Sharma, the risk scenario planning had considered. combat aircraft program could provide 1,300 site visits.” To address short term UK minister for business, energy, and “It went quickly from something that we a part of the foundation for economic concerns, Leonardo has created what it industrial strategy, committed £15 million treated as a short-term situation to some- recovery. “It could benefit companies calls “a control tower” to assess on a daily ($19 million) for the program as part of thing that we think will last for between facing exposure to civil aerospace [losses] basis the effiects of Covid and what help a wider £400 million package previously three and five years, if not longer,” he so we must make a case for this [to the specific suppliers might need.

16 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com repositioner, which gives a field of regard 50 percent wider than that provided by conventional fixed E-scan antenna sys- tems. ISPA6 has continued flight testing to refine the radar’s ECCM (electronic counter-countermeasures) capabilities and to conduct final E-scan software release certification flights. Plans originally called for the “four- nation” version of Captor-E for the original partners to use the same hard- ware as the export standard Radar 1+, but with additional documentation and performance data to satisfy the four-na- tion requirements set down by NETMA. However, when Hensoldt recently announced that it had won a contract to develop and produce a new AESA radar for retrofit to the in-service German and Spanish Eurofighter fleets, it revealed that plans had changed. The aircraft will initially be fitted with the same Mk0 radar as that supplied to Kuwait and Qatar, but the radars will subsequently be upgraded to Mk1 stan- dards with a new digital multi-channel receiver and new transmitter/receiver modules, which will be developed under the new ffi1.5 billion contract. Hensoldt will be the design authority for the new The Eurofighter Typhoon trials aircraft—IPA5—with the Captor-E radar undergoes tests in an anechoic chamber. German Mk1 E-scan radar, while Airbus will carry equipment design responsibil- ity. Leonardo will provide the necessary Eurofighter and the NATO Euro- support to enable Hensoldt to assume its Intro of Typhoon E-scan fighter and Tornado Management Agency role and will continue to provide the pro- (NETMA) signed a ffi1 billion contract cessor for the new German radar, which to develop the electronically scanned will be assembled at Ulm in Germany, radar just months away Captor-E radar on Nov. 19, 2014, and rather than at Leonardo’s Crewe Toll work accelerated after Eurofighter and factory in Edinburgh. by Jon Lake Finmeccanica (now Leonardo) signed No decision has come on which radar an $8.7 billion contract with Kuwait for will be fitted to the 38 new-build Euro- The has lagged DA5 starting May 8, 2007. The Euroradar the delivery of 28 AESA-equipped aircraft fighters sought under Germany’s Quad- behind some of its competitors in fielding consortium offered to provide a CAESAR- in April 2016, with Qatar then signing a riga program, nor for any additional an Active Electronically Scanned Array based AESA solution for the Eurofighter, contract with the UK for 24 aircraft in aircraft acquired to replace German (AESA, or E-scan) radar, but the service but it became clear that a fixed antenna December 2017. Tornados. Germany has previously indi- introduction of the Captor-E AESA radar would be handicapped by a more limited cated an interest in the so-called Radar 2 on the aircraft is now just months away. scan in azimuth, and by reduced range at Captor-E Consortium version of Captor-E under development Captor-E is currently in production for the edges of azimuth coverage. To over- Leonardo led the development of for the UK Royal Air Force and whose fea- Kuwait, which will receive its first aircraft come the deficiency, Euroradar explored a Captor-E within the four-nation Eurora- tures include an expanded and enhanced this year, and under contract for Qatar. number of “moving AESA” designs, using a dar consortium (Leonardo in the UK and electronic attack capability, and which and sensor sys- single or double swashplate repositioner to Italy, Hensoldt in Germany, and Indra in Leonardo is developing for service from tem supplier Hensoldt have also signed a provide much wider scan limits, and devel- Spain) and acted as the design authority around the mid-2020s. contract for an AESA radar for retrofit to oped CAPTOR-E using just such a system. for the radar, while BAE Systems took Radar Two is expected to be an incre- the German Tranche 2 and 3 and Spanish Plans originally called for the incor- equipment design responsibility, integrat- mentally improved version of Captor-E, Tranche 3 Eurofighter fleets. poration of an AESA radar on all ing the radar onto the Typhoon aircraft. almost certainly with a different antenna. The effort to produce an AESA radar for Tranche 3 Eurofighters, and they were The AESA radar, in Radar 1+ (now known The new antenna will still incorporate a Typhoon began in 1993, with the Anglo/ built with structural provision for a as Mk0) form, is being introduced to the repositioner, but might not have embed- French/German AMSAR (Airborne Multi- heavier AESA antenna, together with Typhoon as part of the Phase 3B Enhance- ded IFF, which could make it harder to use Mode Solid-State Active-Array Radar) improved cooling and increased electrical ments (P3Eb) program. the array as a means of communicating research and development program. power. The Eurofighter E-scan program Flight trials began on July 8, 2016, using with other aircraft. Radar 2 would have Captor-E, as it is known today, owes was not accorded a high priority, how- IPA5 and, from September 2016, IPA8—a maximum commonality with Radar 1+ in its origins to the 2002 British and Ger- ever, not least because the mechanically German Tranche 3 Eurofighter. From Dec. its other hardware and operating interfaces. man industry CECAR (Captor E-sCAn scanned (M-scan) Captor demonstrated 23, 2019, the two aircraft were joined by the Euroradar has said very little about Risk reduction) project, which began as such impressive operational capabilities. first Typhoon in Kuwait Air Force config- Radar 2, or the EAP and Bright Adder a strand of AMSAR. The project team Competing visions of a Typhoon AESA uration—Instrumented Series Production demonstrator programs that preceded aimed to develop an AESA derivative of led to further delay, but in 2012 Eurofighter Aircraft 6. Between March 3 and 27, ISPA6 it, partly due to secrecy surrounding the the existing Captor, while adding a new established an AESA radar roadmap, with conducted the so-called “E-scan XCR#1” British-led program and Hensoldt’s sensi- AESA antenna to the existing Captor-D several versions of the basic Captor-E to flight test campaign using other Typhoons tivities (Ulm is developing the Mk1 radar) “back end,” retaining all features and capa- meet different customer requirements. as radar targets. That completed E-scan as well as to avoid denting sales of the cur- bilities of the original system. Work on Captor-E began using industry entry-into-service flight tests and the over- rent Radar 1+. Although Radar 2 remains A CAESAR (Captor AESA Radar) demon- funding, and an initial radar was fitted to all P3Eb flight test campaign, readying the some years away from service, it is, accord- strator flew aboard a UK MoD-operated the UK Typhoon test aircraft, IPA5 (ZJ700), way for deliveries to Kuwait. ing to one program insider, “a real thing, BAC One-Eleven on Feb. 24, 2006, and in time to be shown on static display at the Flight testing confirmed the tacti- happening very soon, and it’s going to be later on Eurofighter Development Aircraft 2014 Farnborough air show. cal advantage conferred by the radar’s transformational for Typhoon.”

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 17 Smarter factories bring growth New regional aircraft designs might come to fruition before opportunity larger commercial aircraft as OEMs by Matt Thurber and manufacturers focus on recovering While many people work from home or from the pandemic face extended furloughs during the Covid downturn, according pandemic, essential manufacturing oper- to Embraer ations must continue, and the so-called Commercial Aviation “smart factory” presents a way to help

INTOSH president and CEO manufacturers keep their doors open to c Arjan Meijer. support customers.

DAVID M “The crisis has accelerated the need for smart factory initiatives,” said Steve Shep- ley, U.S. aerospace and defense consulting leader at consultancy Deloitte, during an Pandemic likely to delay development FIA Connect session. Deloitte smart factory leader Lindsey Berckman joined Shepley for the session, titled Implementing the Smart of new aircraft by several years Factory—Accelerate the Journey to Digital. by Kerry Lynch People can be The Covid-19 pandemic downturn will that politicians cannot dictate design and more rigorous, they added. “There has safer, and delay any major developments for new air- operational parameters. “Otherwise, we’d been a certain amount of relaxation,” craft by at least three to four years while have catastrophic results on the airline Clark said. With lessons learned from the technology can drive the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry,” he warned. Max, though, “that has come back with a safety in the factory. and airline sectors focus on recovery, The technology produced will dictate vengeance.” leading commercial aviation executives future designs, the executives agreed. As for new entrants from China, the You’re connected to believe. Even then, derivatives of existing They also believe such advances can come panel participants agreed that several supply chains so you aircraft appear more likely unless “disrup- from non-traditional sources. Clark sug- obstacles remain. While the desire, com- tive” technologies come to fruition. gested that the industry reach out to other mitment, and resources might exist, can deal with issues Speaking during an FIA Connect 2020 groups, such as automotive experts, to China’s ability to continue to benefit before they hit the webinar titled “Commercial Aircraft: the look at innovations. from technology and knowledge transfer [factory] floor.” Next Generation,” Embraer Commercial “The disruption in design concept from the West has tightened, according Aviation president and CEO Arjan Meijer is not going to come from Boeing and to Udvar-Házy. “The willingness of the —Steve Shepley, U.S. aerospace and defense characterized both the OEMs and air- Airbus,” Udvar-Házy said. “It’s going to Western world to partner with China consulting leader at consultancy Deloitte lines as “patients” that need to recover come from smaller, innovative players.” has diminished significantly in the last 12 over the next several years and that he Such players might not ultimately enjoy months,” he noted. It turns out that the benefits of a smart doesn’t see investments in significant financial success but will drive innova- “The Chinese are hugely aspiring to be factory have become even more apparent capital-intensive programs during that tion, he added. a major player in aerospace,” Clark said. during the pandemic. By connecting factory span. Embraer has managed through the But the Emirates boss added that their assets such as machinery, IT infrastructure, current timeframe with delays in aircraft New Technologies decision to take a route of importing inventory, people, and processes, smart fac- orders rather than cancellations, Meijer The global pandemic will prove to become Western technologies could prove to be tories help manufacturers make products said, adding that the regional airline sec- another factor in future designs. “With a disadvantage in the long run. “I’m not more effciently and provide the ability tor likely would recover first, raising the the pandemic, we have a whole new land- convinced what they have actually pro- to predict bottlenecks and shortcomings, likelihood that aircraft designed for those scape in terms of passenger health con- duced is more than a reverse-engineered all the while freeing people to do more operators also come first. cerns. That is going to be a gray area,” DC-9 or A320,” he said. “They’ve got a important work. During the pandemic, Emirates Airline president Tim Clark noted Udvar-Házy. “For a little while, I long way to go before they can satisfy Shepley explained, the concept can make agreed with the three- to four-year time- don’t see any manufacturers willing to certain Western markets that the aircraft it easier to let people work remotely while frame but added that manufacturers make a bet on a specific configuration.” design, construction, regulation, certifica- keeping the factory humming. “People can should wait to see how developments in New technologies will more likely come tion, operations, and after-sales support be safer, and technology can drive safety in new technologies play out, particularly as on the propulsion side, he added. are up to the likes of what the Western the factory,” he said. “You’re connected to airlines come under increasing pressure Without such technologies, manu- [companies] are producing today.” supply chains so you can deal with issues to practice sustainability. facturers might continue to prefer the The Chinese might realize their aspira- before they hit the [factory] floor.” Given the increasing regulatory and derivative approach, because clean sheet tions, but they compromised their ability “The key is how they come together,” political requirements, manufacturers designs run in the tens of billions of dol- to do so by “fast-tracking” with existing said Berckman. “To have a valuable pre- need to be careful to ensure what they lars for large airliners and carry much technology. “They really need to start dictive smart factory, those attributes design now can become sustainable pro- more risk, they agreed. “I’m not optimis- building their own airframes,” Clark said. come together so workers act on signals grams over several decades, said Steven tic about airframers getting their teeth Another “major failure” on the part of and make worthwhile decisions.” Udvar-Házy, executive chairman of the in new aircraft,” Clark said. “There’s no the Chinese centers on aftermarket sales Implementing a smart factory involves board for Air Lease Corporation. The appetite for that at the moment.” support, Udvar-Házy said. “They have more than just deciding to do it and hiring effiect of environmental politics is huge, But in the aftermath of the Boeing 737 just not built the global infrastructure… consultants. It is important to consider Udvar-Házy added. “We have to be very Max accidents, certification processes to support their customers outside of the use case and whether the organization mindful of this trend,” he said, adding even for derivatives will prove much China,” he said. continues on next page

18 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com years. Adams was formerly president and what they’ve done from an automation Covid to speed Industry 4.0 CEO of U.S.-based aircraft engine compo- standpoint is commendable and success- nent manufacturer EDAC Technologies, ful,” said Adams, adding that the company which Hanwha purchased last year and will work to share best practices among ‘smart’ transformation whose integration Adams described as a its divisions. “I think we’ve implemented transition from a job shop to a high pro- some good product in machine health by Curt Epstein duction manufacturing facility. monitoring systems here in the U.S. that As the companies continue to integrate, will also benefit our teams in Asia.” For the aviation industry, the Covid pan- cost-performance improvements as well he describes them as a tale of two geogra- The digital transformation, which some demic has taken place in the midst of what as better safety. “By connecting machines, phies. While the U.S. facility had engaged companies viewed as a somewhat eso- some refer to as Industry 4.0: the ongoing people, networks, and data to drive vis- primarily in manufacturing and research teric concept, has quickly taken on new transformation of traditional manufac- ibility, efficiency, quality, and predict- and development activities, its focus cen- urgency amid the upheavals felt by the turing and industrial practices combined ability on the shop floor, we’ve seen a tered more on the point of creation and industry, according to Rob Heys, a senior with the latest smart technology. step-change in the productivity of our less on automation. The location relied business development manager with cus- How businesses experience the factories,” said Eddy, adding the manu- heavily on machine-side sensors mon- tomer relationship management software so-called digitization revolution varies facturer has already offset hundreds of itoring their health and manufacturing provider Salesforce. Digitization becomes from company to company. Speaking in millions of dollars of investment that it accuracy. particularly crucial with the current drop the Supply Chain 4.0 webinar as part of would have otherwise required. When he visited the new parent com- in commercial aircraft deliveries resonat- FIA Connect on July 21, Pratt & Whitney For Ben Adams, president of South pany’s facility in Changwon, South Korea, ing through the supply chain. Under such COO Shane Eddy addressed some of the Korea-based Hanwha Aerospace’s U.S. which opened in 2018, he found it to be circumstances, Hayes said there must be challenges and benefits his company has division, the journey towards digitization more advanced than the U.S. operation, more collaborative partnerships between experienced during the crisis, which has has resulted in 30 percent growth for the with a “tremendous amount” of RFID OEMs and system integrators and sup- seen demand on the commercial appli- company each year for the past several technology and automation. “I think pliers through, for example, leveraging cation side decrease between 40 and 50 technology to create collaborative envi- percent depending on the sector and the ronments where companies can share region. With the downturn, the focus on information such as change notes across cost has been much more intense. the entire supply chain in real-time. “This lower investment in today’s Covid Eddy reported that Pratt & Whitney environment…is even more important now uses a dedicated portal to enable for us,” said Eddy. Through digitization, two-way data exchange with its suppli- the Connecticut-based engine maker ers, allowing them to share scheduling has managed to adapt to the new reali- information. What excites him now, he ties with lean automated and connected said, is the ability for the company to use production cells. “The data accumu- model- based engineering design and flow lated from these machines these days is the models directly through to the suppli- unprecedented,” Eddy said. “So all the er’s factory, which has proved particularly ingredients are there for a full digital beneficial to Pratt & Whitney’s joint ven- value stream.” The adoption of new tech- ture with Hanwha in Singapore. nology has allowed the company to serve On the supplier side, Adams said hav- demand with a much smaller industrial ing the capability to receive model-based footprint than would have been possible definition allows the company to speed a decade ago. estimating process, fixture design, and He noted that the use of automation capital acquisition. One of the biggest and robots assist in challenging processes challenges Adams sees in supporting such as fitting large engines together, par- Pratt & Whitney and other OEMs resides ticularly parts with tight tolerances. Such in continually refining the customer inter- automation has contributed to increased As part of its Industry 4.0 digital transformation, engine maker Pratt & Whitney launched a face to allow them greater visibility to the yields, improved on-time delivery, and connected factory pilot project at Pratt & Whitney Component Solutions in Singapore. process and enhance communication.

continued from preceding page the cloud, use sensors to bring in data, willing to partner and they have a spirit of dynamic scheduling system that replaced could benefit from a smart factory. One all on a common platform or ecosystem innovation, which allows the solutions to whiteboards and sticky notes filled with critical factor, Shepley noted, is a high of technology. grow with the manufacturer,” he said. “It tasks and made it much easier to resched- technology readiness level, in which case » Build a roadmap of use cases (a larger gives us a chance to continue to innovate.” ule tasks and reassign workers efficiently. “the comfort level to implement a smart basket of implementations allows a In one example of a smart factory that It was important to include the employ- factory is quite high.” company to hedge the risk over a larger Deloitte helped establish, a U.S. aerostruc- ees in the design of the smart factory, she Companies that might be ready should population of processes). tures manufacturer faced a big problem added. “The feedback was incredible.” consider the following factors, he said: » Plan for scale. You might pilot the smart with material shortages and getting workers The result was a vastly more efficient fac- » Focus on value and results and don’t factory with one use case, but don’t aligned with the work that needed doing. tory, and no more looking up tasks on sticky get mired in technology and hope that build on an environment that doesn’t The company had planned to build new facil- notes, plus the company managed to apply technology will create the solutions to scale. If you can’t scale larger, it’s not ities to improve the situation, but the smart the smart factory technology to many other your problems. worth it. Think big, start small, but factory eliminated the need for a new plant. use cases, further improving efficiency. » Determine the burning issues (laser scale fast once you see results. Berckman explained that the first It takes about 16 weeks to implement focus on the desired outputs). Think “This isn’t the only way to do a smart fac- step centered on helping the company smart factory processes, according to Ber- about user experience. If you want peo- tory,” Shepley said. “But a cloud provider is improve asset tracking. “Workers felt like ckman. The exercise includes about two ple to adopt new solutions, you must critical, particularly for scale. It allows you they were on a treasure hunt to get what weeks developing the business case, six make it easy to use. to put all the data into a single structure they needed,” she explained. Deloitte weeks building a prototype to solve the par- » Don’t just involve technologists in and gain benefits at one plant and apply helped the company create RFID tagging ticular problem at hand, then eight weeks solutions but get front-line workers them to another facility.” Deloitte worked and more comprehensive tracking to running a pilot to prove the value of the involved and get their feedback into the with Amazon Web Services to create Smart improve visibility and tracing of parts. system. Once the first process gets created, design. Establish an ecosystem (this is Factory Fabric, a pre-configured suite The next step involved making sure it can expand to other areas of the factory. not a silver bullet). of cloud-based applications to facilitate workers were in the right place at the right “Think about the next use case to give better » Bring in partners, take full advantage of development of smart factories. “They’re time. The smart factory setup included a lift, efficiency, and metrics,” she said.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 19 (UAM), including air traffic management autonomous operations, such as detect EmbraerX simulator testing and ground infrastructure. He added that and avoid systems. “We are trying to the manufacturer’s agreement with Uber create a vehicle that we can show will is not exclusive and that it remains open have the flexibility to operate in different new 4-seat eVTOL aircraft to possible partnerships with other oper- airspaces around the world, and it gives ators and infrastructure providers. us the confidence to be able to facilitate by Charles Alcock The new design shows eight propellers autonomous flight capabilities before we installed on four beams attached to two fly the aircraft,” Valentini explained. EmbraerX recently made the first flight eventual type certification flight testing. narrow, parallel wings protruding from Meanwhile, EmbraerX is accelerating in a simulator it is using to develop Engineers have been testing the aircraft’s the top of the fuselage to provide vertical work on urban air traffic management, its planned new eVTOL aircraft. The fifth-generation fly-by-wire controls, lift. At the rear of the aircraft, there are a which started in 2011 when it bought a advanced technologies division of the which will initially support piloted oper- pair of ducted fans for cruise flight. stake in a specialist company called Atech. Brazilian business and regional aircraft ations while being compatible with later Embraer believes that its extensive Since publishing its FlightPlan2030 white manufacturer has also flown scale mod- plans to progress to autonomous flight. experience in certifying 26 new aircraft paper to define requirements for UAM els of the new design and has conducted Embraer has been quite secretive over a couple of decades places it to in June 2019, the company has worked wind tunnel testing, but has yet to say about its plans for an eVTOL, despite deliver the right performance, safely to closely with two undisclosed air naviga- when it expects the all-electric, four- Uber’s naming it as one of eight partners the market. Stein pointed to its achieve- tion service providers (ANSPs) and L3 seater to enter service. supporting the ride-hailing group’s plans ment with the latest E2 airliner, which Harris Technologies to develop a concept According to Andre Stein, EmbraerX’s to launch air taxi services from 2023. won certification on time and with of operations. head of strategy and urban air mobility, Stein told AIN that it continues to work better-than-projected performance, as “Our goal is to make it [UAM] more the simulator trials use real flight control with Uber, while stressing that Embraer evidence of the depth of the aerospace accessible and scalable, taking account of parameters and control laws to gather the remains focused on supporting the wider engineering capability it is now tapping both hybrid-electric and electric aircraft,” information that will prepare the way for “eco-system” for urban air mobility to accelerate the flight test campaign. said David Rottblatt, leader of EmbraerX’s “One of the things we have talked urban air traffic management project. about is how to leverage our know-how By the first quarter of 2021, EmbraerX to develop new aircraft, and [we saw intends to have incorporated the this] when we did the first flight in the results of its studies with the ANSPs E2 because we broke records in expand- (located in both Eastern and Western ing the flight envelope,” he said. “A lot of hemispheres) into a consultation doc- [eVTOL] startups rush to fly something ument. At the same time, it will seek to just to have something to show investors.” build “community support” from pro- The EmbraerX team is using the flight spective early UAM adopter cities and simulator at the company’s Sao Jose dos then go to the regulators with what it Campos headquarters to evaluate the calls a data-driven case for how opera- man-machine interfaces of its new eVTOL tions could start. design, using both experienced test pilots With the right infrastructure in place, and relatively inexperienced pilots. Its EmbraerX sees potential for UAM ser- eVTOL engineering manager, Luiz Val- vices to grow rapidly as eVTOL aircraft entini, said that the company works on change the scope of air transportation in the assumption that the UAM market will and around cities. “In London alone, we need to rely on pilots who do not come see the potential for two million users from an air transport background, leading with around 1,500 eVTOL aircraft on it to consider the use of very user-friendly the basis that each person would use control interfaces. them about once per month,” Stein told Embraer is one of eight partners supporting Uber Elevate’s plans to provide aerial ride-hailing The simulator work also lays the a webinar during the FIA Connect event services using eVTOL aircraft. Uber hopes to launch services in 2023. groundwork for capabilities needed for on July 23. n

that fast, disruptive thinking not bounded its implementation. Moreover, regula- Collaboration of ‘Old’ and by pre-conceived notions that might exist tory flight waivers during the crisis have in a 104-year old company,” said Brian allowed development to be undertaken Schettler, senior managing director with more freely with regard to flight-testing. ‘New’ key to UAM success Boeing HorizonX. “But how do you bring Covid-19 has also given some companies and accelerate development when you get a chance to demonstrate the benefits by David Donald to the tough things of certification, regula- of electric aviation. China’s EHang, for tion, and even manufacturing? It’s bringing instance, has been using its autonomous While start-up companies enjoy an not have the internal expertise to over- the best of both worlds together.” air vehicles to deliver medical supplies advantage in developing the technolo- see regulatory compliance for either the Gary Cutts, director of the UK gov- and personnel to hospitals during the gies driving the urban air mobility (UAM) air vehicles or their manufacture. That’s ernment-backed Future Flight Challenge crisis. revolution, there is still a crucial role to where companies such as Airbus, Boeing, project, also noted that while start-ups It has not been good news for every- play for the incumbent aerospace indus- and Embraer play a major role. drive the sector, they need to form con- one, though. “This is a world of haves try giants, according to panelists speaking As a result, many have been making sortia to present more rounded cases that and have-nots,” said Kristen Bartok Touw, during an FIA Connect session. significant investments themselves in encompass the entire “ecosystem” sur- co-CEO with Air Finance. “I haven’t seen With a forecast requirement for about start-ups that are tackling some of the key rounding UAM. That includes the involve- people being able to raise the capital that 200,000 vehicles over the next 20 years, technological issues, such as sense-and- ment of regulators, operators, and local we would like during Covid. I do have a and with most of them being eVTOL air- avoid and traffic management systems, as city governments, as well as an embrace fear that it will be a world in which the craft, the incumbents certainly have an well as the electric air vehicles themselves. of airspace, communications, and infra- start-ups that were able to raise signifi- interest in the UAM marketplace. While Battery technology remains one of the structure requirements. cant capital prior to Covid are still able their relative inertia to innovate internal limiting factors to the performance and The Covid-19 pandemic has affected to innovate and get their work done, and processes might give start-ups the edge in financial viability of the UAM sector, and the development in the UAM sector, those are the companies that will benefit terms of rapidly prototyping and matur- investments have come from Boeing and and many see that as positive inso- and accelerate.” Those not able to raise ing technological innovations, those others in this area. far as it has ushered in a new era of an capital will struggle, she added. generally smaller companies typically do “You have to have that collaboration with appetite for change and to accelerate continues on next page

20 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com New study projects UAM market at $80 billion by 2050 by Charles Alcock

More than 160,000 eVTOL aircraft are today’s premium public transport services, expected to be carrying passengers in such as taxis,” said Manfred Hader, head urban air mobility (UAM) services by 2050, of Roland Berger’s aerospace and defense according to new research by aviation con- practice. sultants Roland Berger. In a report pre- Some of the many contenders to enter sented for the FIA Connect event on July the eVTOL market are pushing hard for 23, the company said that it expects such early service entry, perhaps as soon as 2023. operations to be evenly divided between However, the vast majority of some 2,100 what it defined as “city taxi” (on-demand aerospace industry executives surveyed South Korean automotive group Hyundai has committed to investing $1.5 billion to get its new flights of 15-50 km), “airport shuttle” (also by Roland Berger indicated that they do eVTOL aircraft into service. 15-50 km, or up to around 30 miles), and not find that timeframe credible, with 51 “intercity” (scheduled flights of between percent saying they expect it to happen in allowed it significant latitude for the trial cargo-carrying operations that could 50 and 250 km, or up to around 150 miles). between 5 and 10 years, 34 percent predict- operations. prove the safety and noise case for pas- Of the $80 billion annual value pro- ing more than 10 years, and just 13 percent In Paris, Airbus is partnering with city senger applications. Its study showed that jected for the new UAM market by 2050, expecting it within five years. Two percent public transportation agency RATP to the German capital Berlin might be able to Roland Berger calculates that airport shut- said that UAM will never happen. launch pilot eVTOL operations during support around 1,200 unmanned aircraft tle and inter-city flights will account for Roland Berger’s Center for Smart Mobil- the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, due delivering 4 million packages each year. most of that amount (respectively 50 and ity also has tracked through its UAM Radar to take place in the French capital. Many Overall, Roland Berger does not expect 40 percent), while city taxi journeys take the status of 100 UAM launch projects suggest that full-scale services might not the Covid-19 crisis to significantly affect the remaining 10 percent. around the world to identify where the get underway until 2030, however. the timeline for the emerging UAM sector. “To start with we think [UAM] services early adopter communities will appear. It “The startup companies are typically However, the report did suggest that some will be quite highly-priced and exclusive, identified 54 prospective city-based UAM being more bullish for operations to companies might now struggle to find the but in the longer term [as operating costs projects in Europe, 25 in the Asia-Pacific start by 2025 at the latest because their funding they need for type certification. become more scalable] it will be more like region, 21 in North and South America, six funding depends on having good news to Eric Allison, head of Uber Elevate, con- in Africa, and two in the Middle East. attract investors,” said Hader. “The leg- firmed that viewpoint. He told a separate In Dallas ride-hailing group Uber says acy aerospace companies are being more FIA Connect webinar that some eVTOL it will be ready to launch revenue flights cautious and are looking at the late 2020s developers at the earlier stages of “proto- with one or more of its eight eVTOL man- or early 2030s.” typing” their aircraft might struggle due to ufacturing partners in 2023. Test flights Roland Berger’s research has confirmed Covid disruption and increased difficulty could start by the end of 2020, and Uber its view that public acceptance is a major securing funding. However, he stressed continues to actively lay the infrastructure barrier to UAM adoption. It pointed to that several companies are now making groundwork needed to support operations. recent research by Airbus showing that good progress towards type certification. In the Chinese city of Guangzhou, almost 56 percent of 1,500 respondents Allison said that Uber is now prioritiz- eVTOL pioneer EHang has conducted have concerns about the safety of indi- ing service entry for all-electric eVTOLs, as Germany’s Volocopter is one of a group demonstration flights since 2018, includ- viduals on the ground while 49 percent opposed to hybrid-electric models. He said of eVTOL pioneers looking to develop not ing some carrying passengers. The com- expressed concern about noise. that battery technology can now support only eVTOL aircraft for urban air mobility pany has not yet announced a timeline The consultancy endorsed the grow- the relatively short flights envisioned by operations but also the necessary for full revenue services to begin but the ing consensus that eVTOL operations its planned Uber Air urban and suburban supporting infrastructure. Civil Aviation Administration of China has might gain more early traction with networks. n

continued from preceding page business cases. That not only presents This may or may not be a blessing in obvious issues such as vertiports, com- disguise for the sector as a whole. Most in munications, and air traffic management, the industry consider the figure of at least but also encompasses acceptance by the 292 electric platforms in development far public. The question of whether UAM is too great, and it is those with more mature, considered as mass transport available to more consortium-driven user cases that all, or a high-premium service for the few, appear most likely to find traction. has yet to be answered and has a bear- Other speakers also raised concerns ing on social and political acceptance at that Covid had introduced uncertain- a local level. It also seems unlikely that ties, mainly at the societal level. The governments would commit large invest- nature of the “workplace” and that of ments to UAM infrastructure, leaving a business travel in the future is far from void for the private sector to fill. certain, nor are the best uses for electric Nevertheless, following a number of aviation. Local authorities might not con- studies underway on a city-by-city basis, sider short-range, intra-urban travel as the question of infrastructure is now attractive a proposition as using eVTOL beginning to be tackled at an active level, machines to bring commuters into the with investment imminent to lock up city from outlying areas to relieve some properties that are ideal for vertiports of the burden on ground transportation. in the most promising cities. New York While the focus now centers mainly and Vancouver figure prominently in the on the vehicles themselves, the question list of potential lead cities that have long-­ of infrastructure is increasingly becom- established and publicly-accepted urban Chinese startup EHang has shown agility in its approach to advancing early adoption of urban ing the main topic as teams build their helicopter operations. n air mobility, as it continues efforts to certify its eVTOL aircraft.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 21 Data shows July 10, 2019 Feb. 12, 2020 July 8, 2020 average drop in scheduled flights by airlines by Charles Alcock

Sadly, it almost goes without saying that the Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to the aviation industry. No part of it, so far, has been more damaged than the airline sector. On a rolling basis as the virus spread around the globe from March, airlines were either completely grounded by government lockdowns or saw demand collapse due to an unwillingness or inability of passen- gers to make trips. After at least 12 months of misery, July has brought some signs of a ten- tative uptick in traffic as some restric- tions have lifted. But the picture is far from uniform, and, as the saying goes, the devil is in the detail. To try to provide a snapshot of how flight activity has fluctuated in the face of Covid headwinds, AIN asked air traffc data specialist Spire Aviation to analyze activity at seven international airports in North America, Europe, Africa, South America, the Middle East, Asia, and Aus- tralasia. The company tracks individual aircraft via its own constellation of 88 satellites. It generated data showing all flights in and out each of the following airports on a series of three Wednesdays over the past 12 months (July 10, 2019, Feb. 12, 2020 and July 8, 2020): Chicago O’Hare (ORD) in the U.S., Germany’s Frankfurt Main International (FRA), Johannesburg O.R. Tambo International (JNB) in South Africa, Brazil’s São Paulo Guarulhos (GRU), Dubai International (DXB) in the United Arab Emirates, Sin- gapore Changi (SIN), and Sydney (SYD) in Australia. Spire’s data shows two key elements— the total number of unique aircraft tails (including multiple trips in and out of the same airport on the day in question) and the total number of scheduled flights. Comparing the average volume of scheduled flights across the seven airports on July 8, 2020, reveals a decline of 67 per- cent compared with July 10, 2019, and 70 percent compared with Feb. 12, 2020. Mak- ing the same comparison for total aircraft shows average reductions of 50 percent compared with July 10, 2019, and 54 per- cent compared with Feb. 12, 2020. Johannesburg recorded the largest dip in scheduled flights, at 85 and 86 percent down compared with the respective dates. continues on next page

22 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com effects on our environment, we can give 85 percent aircraft recycling not enough those materials a new life, which in turn will help give a new life to those in need,” by Curt Epstein he noted. Koechler is investing $100 million There could be anywhere between 6,000 effect on air travel, and limited space in percent of each aircraft is being recycled, in the development of a modern recy- and 17,000 commercial aircraft retire- aircraft boneyards is prompting further but he believes that proportion should cling facility slated to open mid-2021 ments over the next decade, according to consideration of how to recycle airframes. be higher. “First, we need to increase that at a 2,500-acre airport industrial site in industry calculations. Some fleets are see- Sven Koechler, managing principal and number to 100 percent and recognize that Kinston, North Carolina, and he is chal- ing accelerated downsizing in the wake of general manager of North American Aero- instead of placing the remaining 10 to 15 lenging the industry to start thinking and the Covid-19 pandemic and its chilling space Industries, said that around 85 to 90 percent in landfills where it has negative acting to create a more sustainable and socially-minded view of aircraft recycling. “There’s no reason why remaining materi- als from retired aircraft can’t be recycled to produce footwear, clothing, hats, coats, Strata delivers 100-shipset order composite layups, eliminates the need gloves, and even tiny homes for those in for a separate ultrasonic cutting machine, need,” he said. for composite A350 flap assemblies and drastically reduces processing times,” Even before the pandemic, the indus- according to Strata. try was seeing the retirement of several Strata Manufacturing has delivered to Air- using hot drape forming, which heats the “Strata is constantly looking to expand hundred airliners each year. “An average bus 100 shipsets of A350-900 inboard flaps material with infrared radiation to soften its technical manufacturing capabilities commercial aircraft has an estimated assemblies made of lightweight composite the material quickly and uniformly. That by investing in cutting-edge technolo- 800 to 1,000 parts that can be recycled,” materials. Strata is an aerostructures man- delivers “accurate parts free from stress- gies and nurturing its employee’s abili- explained Koechler, noting the most valu- ufacturer owned by Mubadala Investment wrinkling,” according to Strata. ties,” said Strata CEO Ismail Ali Abdulla. able are the engines, landing gear, avionics, and located in Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, The facility has two automated “This ensures better efficiencies and and electronics. “Once these components at the Nibras Al Ain Aerospace Park. tape layup machines, both computer- quality across our production lines and and parts are removed, overhauled, tested, Airbus assembles the A350-900 out controlled. The machines lay unidirec- empowers us to advance within a highly- and recertified, they can be repurposed of 53 percent composite materials, with tional prepreg composite materials onto competitive global aerospace sector. In back into aviation.” the fuselage consisting of carbon-fiber- a flatbed, Strata explained. Workers then addition, we have successfully moved Other metal parts can be melted down reinforced plastic. Strata makes the wings’ transfer them to a mold and perform from assembling to fabricating [inboard and returned to the raw material supply inboard flaps with hot drape forming and additional processing. The automated flaps] components. This is a testament of chain. “That leaves many interior com- automated tape layup machines. tape layup machines have a work enve- our capabilities and focus to elevate our ponents such as seating, overhead bins, The manufacturing process begins with lope measuring 2.5 by 10 meters, which status as a sole supplier alongside Airbus cabinets and walls, largely comprised carbon-fiber material being pre-formed enables “automated processing of large of the wing part.” M.T. of composite materials such as carbon- reinforced polymers, [which] can be responsibly recycled to meet critical At the Strata social needs,” said Koechler. Manufacturing He is not the first to have such ideas. Back plant in Al Ain, in 2006, Airbus launched its own aircraft United Arab recycling initiative named PAMELA (Pro- Emirates, the cess for Advanced Management of End-of- company has Life of Aircraft), which aimed to increase developed the percentage of recycled parts from the significant then-industry standard of 60 percent to capabilities in today’s 85 percent. Southwest Airlines has carbon-fiber introduced its own “Repurpose with Pur- composites pose” program, which has upcycled one manufacturing, million pounds of seat covering leather including hot into goods such as shoes, bags, and pon- drape forming and chos while establishing new jobs and train- automated tape ing opportunities for veterans, individuals layup. with disabilities, human trafficking victims, and indigenous artisans.

continued from preceding page Sydney, Australia, saw a similar decline essential travel, scheduled flights in and for AIN, while aircraft numbers were in scheduled flights of 82 and 81 percent, out of Frankfurt were down by 64 percent down by 21 and 24 percent. Data shows drop but with total aircraft numbers down by for both sets of dates. Aircraft numbers On the charts presented here (opp0site 45 and 54 percent. Like its neighbor New declined by 55 and 51 percent. page), the darker colored shading indi- in airline flights Zealand, Australia has sought to maintain Over the past few weeks Brazil, along cates flights at higher altitudes, while a protective bubble by effectively barring with other parts of South America, has lighter shading indicates lower-altitude Total aircraft fell 62 percent compared all international flights to and from the emerged as a serious Covid hotspot. Sched- movements. Colored lines indicate mul- with Feb. 12, 2020, and 55 percent from country. However, given the large size of uled flights at São Paulo’s main airport were tiple aircraft arriving, departing, or in a July 10, 2019. The numbers would appear its territory, Australia, like the U.S., has down by 69 and 76 percent, while aircraft holding pattern. White lines demarcate to reflect the fact that the Covid outbreak seen domestic traffic sustained to a degree. numbers dipped by 53 and 61 percent. runways at the various airports. took longer to reach South Africa but has In Dubai, one of the world’s fastest- Significantly, Chicago’s numbers Spire Aviation is part of the Spire increased markedly in recent weeks. growing airline hubs over the past two bucked the trend in a country that was Global group, which is part of the Space- In Singapore, scheduled flights saw decades, scheduled flights were down by 73 relatively slow to lock down and has tech company based in San Francisco. declines of 81 and 80 percent for the dates and 74 percent, respectively. Total aircraft sought to lift restrictions at the earliest Based on its own satellite constellation, it in question, while total aircraft numbers numbers dropped by 62 and 64 percent. opportunity, apparently resulting in an identifies, tracks, and predicts the move- were 57 and 60 percent lower. The South- In Germany, which like the whole of uptick in infection rates in several states. ment of multiple sets of resources and east Asian city-state felt the virus’s effects Europe experienced tough lockdown Scheduled flights only declined by 17 and weather systems to support decisions by far earlier than did Europe and the Americas. restrictions that barred all but the most 31 percent on the dates tracked by Spire companies and governments.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 23 Brazil begins manufacturing Saab Gripen E fighter by David Donald

Saab Aeronáutica Montagens (SAM) has sub-assembly work to include the front begun the production of sections for the and rear fuselage sections, airbrakes, and Gripen E/F fighter at its facility at São Ber- center wing box for the two-seat version, nardo do Campo, in the southern suburbs for which Brazil is leading the develop- of São Paulo in Brazil. Initially, the aero- ment through the Gripen Design and structures plant is producing tail cones Development Network (GDDN) center and front fuselages for the single-seat opened at Gavião Peixoto in November Gripen E, which will be dispatched to both 2019. The first two-seater is currently the Swedish assembly line in Linköping under assembly in Sweden by a joint Bra- and the Brazilian line. The latter is located zilian/Swedish team. The first of 28 F-39Es for Brazil makes its first flight in 2019. Having been employed on trials at the Embraer plant at Gavião Peixoto to Under current plans, the FAB will work in Sweden, the aircraft is shortly to be transferred to the flight test center in Brazil. the northwest of São Paulo. receive 28 single-seat Gripen Es—to be Production has been established with designated F-39E in FAB service—and expected to fly at Linköping next year. (39-8, -9, and -10) and the first four produc- around 70 employees, many of whom eight two-seat F-39Fs. Follow-on batches After this initial pair for Brazil, the next tion machines. The latest, 6004, made its first have undergone training in Sweden prior could add a further 72 aircraft to the fig- 11 are due to be built and assembled in flight on June 30. According to Mikael Olsson, to establishing the production plant in ure. The first F-39E for Brazil—which Sweden for delivery to the FAB in late head of flight test and verification, the trials Brazil. The creation of the SAM facility was also the first production Gripen E— 2021. The remaining 23 aircraft on order fleet is currently engaged in an intensive is an element of the 100 percent technol- took to the air on August 26, 2019, and will be assembled at Gavião Peixoto, of envelope expansion campaign, while at the ogy transfer agreement made when Brazil was formally handed over last September, which the first eight will mostly be built same time testing the aircraft’s operational signed a contract to build and produce the although it stayed in Sweden for tests. It in Sweden before being shipped in subas- systems. Olsson also noted that, in addition Gripen E/F for the Força Aérea Brasileira is due to be transported to Brazil shortly sembly form for completion. to trial flights beginning soon in Brazil, a (FAB, Brazilian air force) in 2014. to begin the operations of the new flight In the meantime, the Linköping-based third test location would be established in By 2024 SAM expects to have around test center established next to the GDDN Gripen E test fleet has grown to seven air- Sweden by the air force and the country’s 200 employees. The plant will expand its facility. The first Gripen F two-seater is craft, comprising three development aircraft FMV defense materiel administration.

air capability with greatly reduced devel- and is evaluating the Kratos XQ-58A Project Mosquito will add opment times and costs. LANCA was sub- Valkyrie—which has already flown sev- sequently brought into the RCO’s Future eral times—as a “loyal wingman.” Boe- Combat Air System Technology Initiative ing Australia has designed a similar combat mass to RAF fleet (FCAS TI), although Dstl retains oversight Airpower Teaming System vehicle that of the technology demonstration project. the Royal Australian Air Force will eval- This summer the UK’s Defence Science completion in mid-2023, and flight-test- Within the FCAS TI framework, the uate in its Loyal Wingman advanced and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) has ing of the competing vehicles could begin LANCA project involves the production development program. In Europe Airbus completed the initial one-year phase of sometime in 2022. The aim of Mosquito of an unmanned “loyal wingman” that is leading the development of “remote Project Mosquito, a program to develop is to produce a technology demonstrator adds operational capability to manned carriers” as part of the Franco-German- a flyable technology demonstrator of an rather than an operational vehicle. aircraft such as the Typhoon and F-35A Spanish SCAF/FCAS effiort. Russia has unmanned air vehicle that could provide Project Mosquito is part of the wider Lightning and ultimately the FCAS plat- a manned-unmanned teaming project “additive capability” to manned combat Lightweight Affiordable Novel Combat form itself being developed under Project with the low-observable Sukhoi T-70 aircraft. The aim is to reduce the costs Aircraft (LANCA) program, initiated in Tempest. Okhotnik UCAS, expected to partner of adding combat mass to the RAF’s 2015 by Dstl to study innovative technol- LANCA is similar in scope to other with the Su-57 manned fighter. manned fleet to roughly one-tenth those ogies and concepts and how they might be programs. The U.S. Air Force has All of the projects seek to create of manned platforms. harnessed to provide additional combat launched its Skyborg UCAS program a transonic, networked vehicle that The initial phase focused on exploring makes heavy use of artificial intelli- “novel design, development, prototyping, gence so that it can make its own deci- manufacture, and support,” with the aim sions within the wider framework of a of a future unmanned combat air system planned mission and even fly some mis- (UCAS) that can develop and evolve rap- sions autonomously if desired. Vehicles idly and at a low cost. In July 2019, the can be used to augment the manned Dstl announced that Phase 1 contracts aircraft in terms of weapons or be used had been awarded to three teams, led for reconnaissance and defense sup- by Blue Bear Systems Research, Boeing pression tasks. The use of multiple air Defence UK, and Callen-Lenz. The latter vehicles in coordinated swarms can sat- is part of Team Blackdawn, which brings urate defenses. in the expertise of Northrop Grumman Unmanned vehicles are also well-suited and Bombardier Aerospace’s UK divi- to the more dangerous missions, and the sion headquartered in Belfast. Dstl and much lower cost of the UCAV means that its partner agency, the Royal Air Force’s it can be considered “attritable”: while it Rapid Capabilities Offce (RCO), expect is a valuable asset intended for re-use, the to make a down-select to one or two loss of one in combat is far less of a set- teams imminently. back than that of a manned aircraft. For Phase 2 of Project Mosquito, the In the meantime, the RAF has re- successful team(s) will each further refine established No. 216 Squadron at RAF their design and conduct a limited flight LANCA air vehicles could significantly increase “combat mass” by undertaking networked, Waddington to develop “swarming drone” test campaign. The project itself is due for coordinated missions with manned aircraft such as the F-35. technologies and capability. D.D.

24 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com the E-Jets will play a vital role in airlines’ Embraer takes long view recovery from the Covid crisis. “We are continuously evaluating the scenario and talking to customers,” he following failed Boeing deal said. “Regional aviation has been a key element in maintaining essential services by Gregory Polek Francisco and the airline network during the crisis Gomes Neto, and it is already possible to observe some As Embraer emerges from what it might administrative areas have already started Embraer CEO airlines gradually resuming commercial want to consider a forgettable period in to work in a more integrated way.” flights using E-Jets in the United States, its history, the Brazilian company has On addressing the wider issue of the Europe, and other parts of the world.” turned its attention to restructuring the effects of the Covid pandemic on the busi- We made some During the pandemic, Embraer has yet business at a time of upheaval throughout ness, Neto stressed the need foremost to to suffer an order cancellation, although the industry. Since its planned deal with preserve liquidity. The company in June changes in deferrals undoubtedly will force it to Boeing to sell 80 percent of its commer- finalized the terms of contracts providing top management as adjust production rates significantly cial airplane division to Boeing fell apart, for up to $600 million in working capital part of the review downward. Still, Meijer wouldn’t estimate Embraer has begun to reintegrate the unit and export financing. The Brazilian National just how far deliveries will fall. with the rest of the company and named Bank of Economic and Social Development of strategic planning “Embraer received some requests from a new division CEO to replace John Slat- (BNDES) has committed to providing half and reintegration customers to postpone deliveries,” he tery, who has accepted the top position of the financing, up to a value of $300 mil- confirmed. “We are adjusting our pro- at GE Aviation. Meanwhile, the company lion, while the balance comes from private of the commercial duction to the new delivery schedules for continues to ready its case for a lawsuit it and public banks under the condition that aviation business.” 2020 and 2021. At the moment, the situ- filed against Boeing for wrongful termina- the financing plan maintains a 50/50 split ation is stable and we cannot anticipate tion of the $4.2 billion transaction. between BNDES and the other banks. India, “and others” as potential partners. delivery guidance for the year yet.” Answering written questions from “This type of operation is exclusively “There is nothing defined yet,” he noted With Bombardier’s exit from the AIN on the eve of FIA Connect, Embraer debt and does not alter the shareholding last week, however. regional airliner business, Embraer stands CEO Francisco Gomes Neto noted that structure of Embraer,” stressed Neto. “In Now preparing for a 2021 introduction as the last regional jet maker in the West- the company has already reintegrated parallel, we are reviewing our strategic of the E175-E2, the last and smallest of its ern world, and with Mitsubishi’s troubled commercial aviation’s service and sup- planning to incorporate current market family of Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered SpaceJet program facing yet another delay, port with the division dedicated to those conditions and establish strategic initia- jets, Embraer will eventually need to con- analysts have reasoned that the Brazilian functions and that he expects the com- tives, potential partnerships, goals, and sider what comes next in terms of product company might benefit from the Japanese pany to “recover synergies” over the next indicators as well as a structured execu- development. For his part, new Commer- airframer’s latest stumble. Nevertheless, few months. tion process focused on growth, cash gen- cial Aviation CEO Arjan Meijer won’t rule Meijer thinks Mitsubishi eventually will “We made some changes in top manage- eration, and profitability.” out a new large turboprop after Slattery in become a competitive threat. ment as part of the review of strategic plan- Part of the growth plan could involve January basically rejected the possibility “We believe that the lower pace of devel- ning and reintegration of the commercial alternative partnerships with other aero- absent a deal with Boeing. opment of the Mitsubishi aircraft is only aviation business,” explained Neto. “We space companies on engineering or prod- “As market leader in the up-to-150-seat temporary,” he said. “During the next years consolidated the vice-presidencies of ucts, added Neto. On June 1 Embraer segment, Embraer is always assessing the [China’s] ARJ21 and the E175 will be the engineering and strategy and changed confirmed its interest in discussions with market,” Meijer told AIN. “Being pragmatic, main aircraft to be delivered but most of the leadership in the areas of operations, more than two potential partners for its Embraer is open to discussing partnerships those deliveries were already contracted in commercial aviation, and [advanced tech- commercial aircraft business as part of a aimed at specific projects, such as the devel- previous years, during the time of extremely nology division] EmbraerX. We are work- five-year strategic plan still under devel- opment of a new-generation turboprop.” aggressive competition against Bombardier. ing on reviewing the strategic plan and opment. Speaking during the company’s On the prospects for its current By the time that the market recovers we we will have more clarity in the coming first-quarter earnings call with securities regional jet lineup, Meijer expressed will probably see Mitsubishi accelerating months. Since the beginning of June, all analysts, Neto named companies in China, confidence—as one might expect—that again their product development.”

Air Baltic stays nimble in face of Covid uncertainty After completely exiting Boeing 737 and but quickly found it needed to adapt to sup- De Havilland Dash 8-400 turboprop flying port utilization rates. The airline still can- following its March 17 Covid closure, Air not serve destinations such as Stockholm, Baltic has turned attention to maximizing Moscow, and St. Petersburg, although the efficiency of its Airbus A220 fleet as it tentative plans now call for resumption of adds one airplane per month since resum- service to the Russian capital on August 1. ing operations two months later. During a This week it plans to resume service to July 20 FIA Connect Spotlight Session, Air Keflavik, Nice, and Madrid. Baltic president and CEO Martin Gauss “Technically we fly 11 aircraft but we said he and his team adapt schedules every use 16,” explained Gauss. “The reason Air Baltic now flies what amounts to a uniform fleet of 11 Airbus A220s after shedding its Wednesday to account for a Covid-related is we have a minimum turnaround time Boeing 737s and De Havilland Dash 8-400s. need for flexibility, given changes in the of 60 minutes because of the disinfec- virus situation in various EU countries and tion [of the cabin]. But yes, utilization is frequency and increasing capacity on the also rebuilding the hub function in Riga government opening of new destinations. nowhere where it should be. That is one same number of routes—has proved an is working for us at the moment. Nine Still, he noted, the company continues to of the prices you have to pay for the kind advantage. weeks in we are satisfied and a little bit concentrate on short-haul routes, many of operation we do.” “We think we’ll be back in 2022,” said above what we wanted to achieve. I think within a Baltic state “bubble” created at The company, said Gauss, has removed Gauss. “As we don’t really fly long-haul… toward the end of the year we will also the start of service resumption. 40 percent of its capacity for the year, but we have an advantage because that part of see business travel come back if we don’t Now flying 11 of its 22 A220-300s, Air he noted that removing the turboprops in the business is really not working at the have several countries going back into a Baltic restarted with its strongest routes, favor of the A220s—effectively lowering moment. Short-haul within Europe and more severe Covid situation.” G.P.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 25 continued from page 1 Several webinars delivered an impres- sive breadth of expertise addressing Farnborough Online the potential for profound change right across the aerospace supply chain, as if From now through 2021, it sees a “transi- the Covid emergency has somehow gal- tion” phase during which it advocates com- vanized attitudes toward an urgent need panies should address their strategy with for such shifts. Some speakers referenced a dispassionate reassessment, followed disruption to the globalization trend, see- in short order by course correction. The ing production moving closer to home. Roland Berger team said it consciously Others saw opportunities for national chose to describe that phase as a transition industries showing the greatest initiative rather than a recovery, which it does not to pull ahead of less agile rivals in a poten- consider a given in the short term. tially historic shift in the balance of power. However, FIA Connect delivered some Along with its friendly rival Paris, Farn- glass-half-full sentiment too. For a start, borough International has long been one it is clear that the defense and security of the two truly global air shows. In its sectors of the wider industry have not diminished FIA Connect format, how- UK mulls Puma replacement plans felt the effects of Covid as severely and, ever, there appeared to be a more self- indeed, they potentially stand to gain conscious UK focus as the country’s Originally developed as part of the Lift program, which includes the Future from mounting global tensions. aerospace industry grapples with the wide-ranging Anglo-French helicopter Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) ele- The industry increasingly views sustain- task of reinventing itself in response to agreement that also produced the Lynx ment that pits the Sikorsky/Boeing SB>1 ability—the challenge to make aviation the twin challenges of Covid and its Brexit and Gazelle, the Sud Aviation SA 330E Defiant compound helicopter against the carbon-free—as a platform for growth, departure from the European Union. Puma was built by Westland in the UK and Bell V-280 Valor tiltrotor for the right to with opportunities for companies to This brought repeated interventions entered service with the Royal Air Force in replace the Army’s UH-60 Black Hawk. advance technology supported by significant by members of the UK government eager 1971. Despite 24 of the fleet having under- While the UK MoD might harbor ambi- amounts of government financial support. to accentuate perceived opportunity gone the HC.Mk 2 upgrade program that tions to one day operate FLRAA aircraft, it Panelists presented moves to replace jet-A over pitfalls. There were no promises of added a glass cockpit, new tailrotor and likely won’t enter service until the 2030s, fuel with electricity generated by renewable further specific financial support for the gearbox, improved defenses, and more leaving a considerable capability gap. One means or hydrogen as a welcome founda- industry, beyond previously announced powerful Makila engines, the 50-year-old answer could involve a further extension tion for aviation’s future between now and commitments some speakers compared Puma is now nearing the end of its service of the Puma’s service life to around 2035. 2050, rather than a distracting annoyance unfavorably to the much larger amounts life, which is currently set to expire in 2025. One party that does not think a second forced on it by a hostile environmental lobby. pledged by rivals like France. Faced with that proposition, the UK Min- Puma upgrade represents the best way Similarly, increased automation of UK industry group ADS has been dip- istry of Defence is examining a number of forward is the OEM itself. Leonardo UK, the aircraft, leading along a spectrum to lomatic but firm in its insistence that options. Earlier in July, James Heappey, successor to Westland, might find a place increased adoption of fully autonomous the government must provide tangible, previously minister for defense procure- if the UK eventually procures the FLRAA, flight, now appears an important mag- long-term support for a sector facing a ment but now minister for the armed forces, but meanwhile, it is proposing its AW149 net for investment and an opportunity defining and still potentially damaging visited Washington to sign a wide-ranging 9-tonne multi-role medium transport heli- for companies to get a competitive edge. moment in its illustrious history. The FIA cooperation agreement with U.S. Army copter as the ideal solution for the Puma Roland Berger expects investment in the Connect discussions highlighted tensions secretary Ryan McCarthy concerning mod- replacement and one that it promises it field to continue despite Covid’s squeeze between cheerleaders bearing slogans ernization. Part of the agreement covered would assemble at the former Westland of cash, albeit at a slower rate than for and battle-hardened realists looking for UK interest in the Army’s Future Vertical plant in Yeovil. D.D. sustainable technology. substance and resolve.

continued from page 1 secure more funding. Since the launch of the combat air strategy program at Farn- Game-changer borough in July 2018, the nation has over 60 technology demonstrations underway, manufacturing director-air at BAE Sys- some of which are already showing levels tems. “It’s important for the national of maturity beyond their objectives, with skills base.” Tempest has to “drive a step- design engineering tasks exhibiting at change in pace [of development] as well least a ten-fold reduction in times. Others as in capabilities,” he added. have achieved desired results on as little At the core of the development pro- as 10 percent of the manpower required gram is a far greater accent on collabora- for similar tasks using traditional meth- tion than on earlier combat air projects, ods. Around 1,500 people now work on not only between UK companies but also the Tempest project in the UK. internationally. The UK’s Team Tempest Tempest’s new approach to develop- now benefits from the industrial expertise ment involves bringing in innovations of Italy and Sweden in a tri-national effort. from outside the defense sector, draw- Working together draws innovations from The Tempest fighter serves as the centerpoint of a wider future combat air system. ing on commercial technology brought all parts of the industry, including SMEs in from power, nuclear, and automotive and greatly reduces the duplication of ensure their global standing in the defense primary aircraft types in recent decades— industries, for example. efforts and, therefore, costs. industry for years to come, while still main- Tornado, Typhoon and F-35—and have The Tempest development program Work on FCAS technology continues taining their national freedom of action. both worked closely as major partners will also see technology cascading into on a national basis, but the three partner What became clear at an early stage of in the multinational industrial programs industries outside defense and aerospace, nations are rapidly establishing a robust study was that the three countries share that developed and produced them. as well as into current combat aircraft platform to merge efforts in the near future close alignments in terms of a national As far as the UK is concerned, Team such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab to kick-start the main development phase vision for industry and economy, and Tempest has already achieved consider- Gripen. The latter is important not only in of the program. A trilateral study revealed combat air requirements. The industries able successes in a rapid time period and terms of operational effectiveness but in encouraging results in terms of benefits and air forces themselves are also closely is on track to meet its objectives as it pre- maintaining the credibility of those types for the partner nations, permitting them aligned in many ways: the UK and Italy, pares to submit an outline business case to in the export market until the Tempest to retain their national skills bases and to for example, both have rated the same government around the end of the year to itself can be exported.

26 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Wizz Air proves ‘cash is king’ by Gregory Polek

To privately-owned Hungarian airline Varadi explained that managers of pub- Wizz Air, “cash is king,” as CEO Jozsef licly-traded airlines typically run their Varadi quipped during an FIA Connect businesses on a “pay-for-profit” basis Spotlight Session. Carrying enough because of their mindfulness of the stock liquidity during the Covid crisis to last market. “You have to run this business it years rather than months, the LCC’s for the long run,” he said. “And liquidity management believes in cash preserva- and cash are critical components of this tion precisely for lean times such as these. business model.”

The airline hasn’t enjoyed the kind of gov- In terms of operations, Wizz Air has A57 € SONY SLT ₂ BY COMMONS ffi BY FLICKR: CREATIVE ernment support many flag carriers have managed to recover 77 percent of its A WizzAir Airbus A320 takes off from Budapest in 2015. received, leaving it with little choice but 2019 capacity compared with the Euro- to rely on its own resources to survive the pean average of 38 percent. However, as we’re learning through this period, that “I don’t think the industry will change in Covid pandemic. countries begin to reintroduce travel if we get stuck in one country or one mar- the long run fundamentally,” he insisted. “We entered March with ₂1.5 billion restrictions and flight bans due to surges ket because of restrictions, how do you “I think these concepts will prevail. Yes, in of free cash and most of it has been pre- in Covid cases, Varadi worries that redeploy capacity in other markets?” this point of time you have more guidance served ever since the start of the crisis,” industry gains might reverse. “I think The answer lies with operational agility, when it comes to health and safety and said Varadi. “The very worst situation for the next period of time is going to be and Wizz Air has restructured its network those sort of measures, but you recall in us is when we don’t operate. This is when full of uncertainties in terms of the oper- and opened “six or seven” new bases, 2001, when safety was at stake, a lot of peo- we burn the most cash. At the moment we ating environment,” he said. “I think it explained Varadi. Still, Wizz Air harbors ple believed that would change the industry only operate on a cash contribution basis, will impose a challenge to the industry no intention to change its operational or forever and people will not fly. You look at so actually we are creating cash. So not in how to be flexible and if you have to financial philosophies, notwithstanding it now and ever more people have elected only are we preserving, we are adding to adapt your network design and capacity fears that Covid could change the funda- to fly. I think the same is going to continue our liquidity.” plan, you should do that. This is what mentals of the industry forever. going forward.”

Innovation key to helping aerospace UK aviation orgs seek help climb out of Covid-caused downturn with scrappage scheme Though the Covid-19 pandemic has deliv- Elsy named electrification as an area ered a “body blow” to the aerospace indus- where he said the aerospace industry by Kerry Lynch try, it will come back better and stronger has an opportunity to cooperate with the thanks to companies’ innovative spirit, High automotive sector, which took the lead in UK aviation organizations are encouraging 90 percent. Value Manufacturing Catapult CEO Dick Elsy the field and has already set battery tech- the UK government to consider an aircraft In the UK, aerospace remains a critical said during a Tuesday FIA Connect webinar nology standards. “Electrification is a good scrappage stimulus scheme to help boost sector, the report highlights, noting that titled Innovations in Response to Covid-19. place to cooperate—there is a lot of com- the struggling sector while helping facili- the industry contributes £34 billion ($43 As proof of the industry’s flexibility, Elsy mon ground, and aerospace plus auto is a tate the industry’s move toward the goal of billion) to the UK annually, supporting pointed to the “ventilator challenge” in the terrific value add,” he said. achieving net-zero emissions in 2050. 114,000 jobs. UK this spring. “In mid-March, the govern- But UK government funding for aero- Roland Berger partner Robert Thom- Under the scheme, aircraft more than ment saw a need for 20,000 ventilators to space research to produce such innova- son detailed the Aircraft FIRSt proposal 25 years old would be scrapped. However, treat Covid patients, but had only 1,000 on tion is a huge concern to both. “Nations during an FIA Connect 2020 webinar, say- a number of issues would need addressing. hand,” he said. compete for aerospace,” noted Elliott. “So ing a study on the scheme suggests that it They include not only economic incen- Thus, the government tasked non-med- the UK government needs to lean-in hard could help the sector if some of the key tives for purchase but compensation for ical industries to help source parts for and on how we fund the industry, particularly issues get resolved. affiected companies such as suppliers and build more ventilators. The aerospace funding intensity.” The plan aims to encourage UK air- MRO providers that operate under busi- industry rose to the challenge, supplying Every £1 invested by government into lines to replace aging aircraft—those 25 ness models the premature retirement of parts for and assembling more than 13,400 aerospace research spawns £12 of invest- years or older—with new, more effcient aircraft would harm. Further, the scheme ventilators in just 12 weeks, despite its lack ment from the private sector, according to aircraft. The Roland Berger report, con- should be tailored to ensure that airlines of expertise in the medical field. Elliott. “We must take a bold approach to ducted with the support of a number of that have already invested in newer air- “Aerospace moved into a completely funding aerospace research.” He added major aerospace companies, estimated craft don’t suffier a disadvantage. new area in a very short time and showed that the UK’s Jet Zero initiative to field that such an incentive would create a Furthermore, the scheme would need its adaptability to work across industries,” zero-emissions aircraft by 250 is a bold demand for 90 new aircraft with the to be harmonized with other jurisdictions Elsy explained. “We also had incredible national program that requires equally associated retirement of 90 aircraft. Such to ensure trade fairness. But Thomson supply chain support for the effort. Over- bold funding from the government. turnover could reduce CO2 emissions by noted that other countries have provided all, the industry has incredible strength, Elsy echoed those thoughts. “The gov- some 4 percent, Thomson said. various forms of assistance to the indus- and coming out of the Covid crisis is just ernment needs to keep its foot flat on the He cautioned that while that amounts to try. Any such scheme should ensure the another challenge. We’ve seen the spirit accelerator when it comes to aerospace a “moderate” environmental benefit, the investments aid the UK industry through of the aerospace industry and just need to funding,” he said. primary value would lie with economics. In parts content of new aircraft and through redirect it to the current situation.” While the Covid-19 crisis is certainly a addition, the proposal alone will not erase job support. Aerospace Technology Institute CEO challenging time for the industry, Elliott the sector’s financial woes, but it would When asked about the scheme, Rachael Gary Elliott agreed, adding that several and Elsy maintain that it also has pre- help provide much-needed support. Everard, head of sustainability for Rolls- “disruptors” coming to the industry will sented an opportunity. “Aerospace will The report illustrates the depths of the Royce and a panelist during Wednesday’s require such innovation, including urban come back, and innovation will help us downturn, noting that aircraft deliver- session, said her company saw poten- air mobility/air taxi, sustainable regional meet these challenges and new opportu- ies likely will drop by half through 2020, tial in the scheme but wanted to further aircraft, sustainable alternative fuels (SAF), nities,” concluded Elsy. “A team of diverse while maintenance, repair, and overhaul explore the ramifications on MRO and to new propulsion systems, and connectivity. people can achieve almost anything.” C.T, spending falls by 70 percent. At its low ensure funding remained available for fur- point, traffc in the UK alone plummeted ther green research.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 27 has “faced the same challenges during their voices within the more comfortable Women in defense panel these 100 days of lockdown,” including rooms of Zoom. “the ways you communicate, the ways When asked what one lesson she hopes you build relationships and trust, and the to bring with her into the post-Covid aims to foster inclusiveness ways that you work together as a team.” workplace, Thompson might have said Keeling pointed out that in many ways it best: “Each and every one of my team by Jennifer Leach English the defense industry was well poised to is on an equal playing field in terms of handle an unforeseen crisis because it who can bring ideas forward. No longer How can the defense industry promote allowed her company to become “agile has always placed utmost value on “the is this a top-down environment. This is diversity and gender equality among and flexible in how to work from home” importance of the mission and the cus- an environment where everyone should its ranks? How can it use the lessons as it became quickly reliant on new and tomers and their needs.” contribute and has a lot to offier, and I learned from the pandemic to improve existing technologies to keep things run- Most on the panel agreed that the pan- see that now [because of] the last 100 inclusivity and productivity? Those ning smoothly. Thompson also said the demic has brought an unforeseen inti- days. I want that culture and mindset to were just a few of the questions raised pandemic has shown that “we no longer macy and trust to teamwork and allowed be taken forward and not lost.” by Sophie Thomas, Zephyr program need traditional hours of working. You many who would perhaps not have spo- manager at Airbus and industry co-chair don’t have to be online from nine to ken up in a large conference room to find of the Women in Defence Charter, who five because you may be juggling home- led a thought-provoking FIA Connect schooling and family commitments, so 2020 seminar on July 22. The Women in maybe twelve to eight is better, and we Defence Charter launched in September can have that flexibility.” of 2019 in London and received signed Still, the founder of Women in Defence Women leaders stress commitments from industry leaders and UK and co-chair for the Charter, Angela the Ministry of Defence to work toward Owen, was quick to serve a dose of real- gender balance and opportunities for ity in stating that men and women don’t diversity and inclusion women to succeed at all levels in the equally share childcare responsibilities, defense sector. and until they do, women will face an by Kerry Lynch Morag Stuart, director of transfor- unfair disadvantage in the workplace. mation for the Ministry of Defence Her concern is that even with flexible While acknowledging that maintaining the coronavirus, we must ensure we pave and co-chair for the Charter, began the hours becoming more acceptable, “if diversity and inclusion goals might be the way for an industry that is diverse and discussion by commenting on the pro- remote working is seen as something diffcult as workforces reshape during inclusive.” fessional challenges the pandemic has fantastic for women, but that men aren’t the Covid-19 pandemic, industry lead- She added that the topic “remains as presented. She shared her own stressful so keen on, it could make the divide big- ers believe that the issue must remain a urgent now as ever before,” pointing to experience of trying to teach school to ger. Until we get to the stage that child- priority to prepare organizations to bet- statistics showing that women pilots rep- two small children at home while hold- care responsibilities are shared more ter prepare for the future. Four women resent just 6 percent of the total pilot ing down a full-time job but noted that equally, [working from home] will not be senior executives and offcials stressed population. While piloting is just one her team at MoD showed “great resil- seen as the norm and not just something that view July 23 during an FIA Connect position, it represents wider challenges ience [in being able to] change and react” women do.” 2020 session led by the Women in Avia- throughout the industry, she said. to the new normal of the pandemic. Owen pointed to recent data from the tion and Aerospace Charter, an initiative She expressed support for the char- Her colleague, Dwayne Branch, dep- Royal Armed Forces, noting that some launched during the 2018 Farnborough ter initiative and noted other ongoing uty director of transformation for MoD, one out of 10 women took advantage of Airshow and one that has attracted more effiorts such as the Reach for the Sky pro- noted that forced remote offces and its recently offiered “alternative working than 200 companies signing on to work gram, designed to inspire future aviators. teamwork could help to promote diver- arrangements,” but only one out of 100 toward more gender balance across all Despite the pandemic, those initiatives sity because companies might no longer men. “It’s a question of destigmatizing,” levels of the industry. continue, she said, with events moving need to hire based on the geographical said Owen, because even though many “We believe it’s more important than online and ambassadors being named and location of their candidates. He stressed companies might put in place paternity ever to highlight this subject as compa- actively involved. the ongoing importance of recruitment leave policies, it remains more socially nies in the sector look to restructure “The whole world has plunged into from all parts of the world to create diver- acceptable for women to shoulder in response to the crises. Diverse, for- crisis and our industry is one of hardest sity not only of gender, but of “thought, child-rearing burdens. ward-looking, and collaborative work- hit,” added Adefunke Adeyemi, regional background, and socioeconomic class.” Anna Keeling, managing director of forces, we believe, will be integral in director for advocacy and strategic rela- Andrea Thompson, managing direc- Boeing Defence UK, referred to the pan- helping organizations to recover and face tions for Africa for the International tor-Europe and international for BAE demic as “an amazing equalizer for us all,” the future with confidence,” said Rolls- Air Transport Association (IATA). She Systems Air, noted that the pandemic noting that regardless of title, everyone Royce chief customer officer for civil acknowledged the numerous furloughs aerospace Jacqui Sutton, who moderated but expressed the belief that the industry the panel on behalf of the charter. is resilient and will adapt through strong Sutton said a recent McKinsey and communications and an understanding Company study underscores that belief, that industry stakeholders share in the finding companies that rank in the top struggles. quartile for gender diversity on executive Given those struggles, she said IATA teams were 21 percent more likely to out- has shifted its goals toward fostering perform on profitability and 27 percent inclusiveness and diversity through men- more likely to generate superior “value torship and promotion from within rather creation.” than hard metrics. Kelly Tolhurst MP, the UK Department On that front, IATA initiatives have of Transport minister for aviation, mar- seen successes, she said, one of which itime, and security, agreed. She noted was the “25by2025” campaign launched in that the job reports have made “for very September of 2019. Participating airlines diffcult reading” and emphasized her make a voluntary commitment to increase focus on working to retain as many jobs the number of women in senior positions as possible. “Against this backdrop, it can by either 25 percent or ensure women fill be hard to look forward, but we must. 25 percent of those jobs by 2025. By the We will recover from this pandemic and end of last year, nearly 60 airlines had as we do the urgent need for technical committed. skills will increase,” Tolhurst said. “As The idea centers on the use of analytics Diversity is a requirement, not an option, in the defense industry. our sector recovers from the impact of to focus on how the industry can better

28 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com engage and take a deliberate approach to ensure that businesses attract, retain, and promote women to senior-level positions, she said. That does mean “playing of the gender card kind of metric,” Adeyemi said. “It is designed to address problems of conscious bias, as well as the tendency of women themselves not to lean in.” The program must be intentional to work and ensure that organizations not only express their approval but “walk the talk.” “If it is not done this way, the needle wouldn’t move,” she said. Pointing to the increasing participation, she said she has seen progress. However, “with the pandemic, every- thing came to screeching halt,” she lamented. As a result, IATA will not con- centrate on the metrics involved as much for the time being, but rather on efforts such as its “Mosaic” initiative designed to foster inclusion and diversity. It designed By International Women’s Day in March, more than 200 organizations had signed on to the Women in Aviation and Aerospace Charter. that effort to encourage the promotion of women who meet criteria and have merit, a simple gender-card play. Rather, they that Safran already has positioned itself targeting, whether at the applicant as well as encourage others to achieve must ensure competency through training well, paving paths on meeting UN inclu- level, through recruitment, or through with the help of coaching and mentoring. to ensure an available workforce, she said. sion benchmarks. As such it has man- promotion, said Martine Gagne, chief Such issues apply to racial diversity Victoria Foy, CEO of UK-based Safran aged to maintain a focus through several technology officer for Meggitt. Organi- needs as well. “We need to think about Seat GB, agreed that like other compa- means, including outreach and surveys zations should rely on multiple sources how we include racial minorities into nies, Safran has faced “a wave of changes” to ensure an understanding of concerns to determine whether they have made the mainstream for the industry,” said during the pandemic that has made the during the pandemic. a difference, including examining the Adeyemi. As with gender diversity, the ability to keep diversity and inclusion top Long-term though, data can bench- executive suite to make sure good role efforts must be intentional but can’t be of mind challenging. However, she added mark the gaps and areas that need models occupy it.

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ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 29 the country’s supply chain) and Sharing in Growth. According to Williams, con- solidation is a necessary step to make the industry leaner and better able to weather the rapid contraction in demand. “It is clear that we are now talking about an industry that could be 30 to 40 per- cent smaller in the next few years so we will need to reshape the supply chain to improve its liquidity and solvency so that it is ready for a return to decent business at the end of this cycle,” he said. “We are encouraging mergers and combinations of suppliers to make sure [the UK] has the right group of suppliers to emerge in a strong supply chain.” Williams pointed out that before Covid hit, many aerospace companies had been making big investments to support rap- idly growing production rates for airliner programs like the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737 Max. He said that the high levels of investments made in the past couple of years make it hard for firms to now take on more debt to get through the current crisis. The industry veteran called for a patient and a long-term perspective on sourcing capital for the sector and said the government could play a role in Bombardier UK manufactures composite Airbus A220 wing assemblies at its plant in Belfast, Northern Ireland, using the sophisticated resin shaping an industrial policy to support transfer injection process —a first for commercial aircraft wing manufacturing. that approach. At the same time, he cau- tioned against the prospect of opportu- nistic interventions from private equity investors who he said could “pick the UK Aerospace could lose market share carcass like vultures.” Giles Wilkes, a senior research fel- low with the Institute for Government, to better-funded rivals in other countries said that the next phase of the UK gov- ernment’s involvement in helping the by Charles Alcock aerospace industry could prove more challenging than its immediate Covid The UK aerospace industry risks losing endure the immediate effiect of Covid. He commented. “In France, the industry has relief effiorts. “It’s easier to act fast when significant market share as rivals with pointed to some £2.6 billion ($3.3 billion) a higher strategic priority and the danger you don’t have to discriminate [over] more support from their governments in joint government-industry investment is that [French companies] have an ambi- which companies to help,” he said in aggressively pursue recovery from the in research and development committed tion to grow their business through the describing how the UK’s Conservative Covid-19 pandemic through growth. The since 2013, which includes £400 million current cycle and that means they will government had temporarily abandoned blunt warning came on July 21 from for- (of which £200 million came from the gov- have to gain [market share] from else- its free-market instincts in the immedi- mer Airbus chief operating offcer Tom ernment) of funds committed since 2019 where. In the post-Brexit environment, ate fallout from Covid. He called on those Williams, speaking at an Aerospace for the country’s Aerospace Technology the UK could be seen as a sitting duck to calling for larger, longer-term financial Growth Partnership webinar as part of Institute to advance the development of be picked offi and so that has given us an support to be more patient, warning that the FIA Connect event. carbon-neutral aircraft. But none of those added challenge on top of this crisis.” it will not be easy to stimulate a short- Williams, who has come out of retire- funds have been specifically committed to Mandy Ridyard, finance director with term recovery in demand for an industry ment to be seconded from Airbus to the addressing the unprecedented Covid crisis, UK flight controls and components man- that has always had to work with long UK Aerospace Supply Chain Taskforce prompting the unfavorable comparisons ufacturer Produmax, told the webinar investment cycles. established by industry group ADS, said with the response of other countries. that its business dropped by 30 percent Zahawi said that for the government that urgent, sustained, and targeted sup- in the immediate wake of Covid and that “nothing is off the table” in terms of fur- port is needed from the UK government French Aid it had quickly redirected effiorts to pro- ther assistance now being considered to deal with a crisis that will prove to In June, the French government commit- duce ventilators for the National Health for the UK aerospace sector. He pointed be “more dramatic and of longer dura- ted a ₂15 billion ($17 billion) aid package Service. She expressed appreciation for to Airbus’s decision to keep wing man- tion” than crises such as the 9/11 terrorist for the country’s aviation industry, and government job retention assistance but ufacturing for the new A321XLR nar- attacks, SARS, the Gulf War, and the finan- around ₂1.2 billion of it provides short- called for a more “nuanced” and longer- rowbody in the UK (despite Brexit) and cial crisis of 2008. He warned that the UK’s term help for the damaged supply chain. term approach to supporting investment Rolls-Royce’s continued investment Brexit departure from the European Union Williams said that he expects to have a in SMEs, while at the same time boosting in new Ultrafan engine technology as has added to the strain that the country’s similar scheme in place before the end of demand by encouraging travelers to start reasons for optimism. “This industry industry will feel as it pursues recovery 2020 and claimed that industries in those flying again and through government doesn’t just lie down and say ‘Covid has from the steep dip in demand on the civil countries are under less pressure after procurement. beatenYOUR us’ becauseSOURCE FOR it hasn’tAVIATION and NEWS it never aviation side of its business. their governments extended furlough- The UK Aerospace Supply Chain Task- will,” he proclaimed.www.ainonline .com In the same webinar, UK business, support assistance for two years. The UK force has engaged with around 187 aero- energy, and industrial strategy minister government is now winding down fund- space suppliers and is currently focusing Nadhim Zahawi hailed financial support ing for furloughed workers. on 20 or 30 companies that it feels that his government has provided to the “We [the UK] are going to have to find need the most immediate help available EffNEWSLETTER FOR BUSINESS AVIATION sector, mainly through the short-term a solution that fits the [country’s] diffier- through existing ADS programs like SC21 www.ainonline.com/alerts assistance provided to all companies to ent social and political model,” Williams (set up a few years ago to modernize

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FOR NEWS VIDEO FROM EBACE ground-based training system (GBTS) is on course to be delivered to the Air Force ahead of the first aircraft arriving, com- prising an array of components from desk modules to flight simulators, and includ- ing an egress trainer. A key element of the GBTS is that it uses the same operational flight program (OFP) software as the aircraft, enabling it to maintain concurrency with the actual aircraft through simultaneous software uploads. It also employs the same brief/debrief system, making the transitions between GBTS and aircraft as seamless as possible. Available from the first day is a live- virtual-constructive (LVC) capability that allows simulators to be networked with flying aircraft in joint training operations. At present, there are no plans to network the T-7A with other aircraft types, although the simulators can be. Boeing and Saab are currently focused on the U.S. Air Force requirement, but the T-7 is drawing strong interest from poten- tial export customers. There is flexibility in the production system to cater for addi- Boeing pilots are conducting the current T-7A trials from St. Louis. Saab test pilots might join later test campaigns, having flown the T-7 during tional orders without interrupting produc- the demonstration phase. tion for the USAF, which is expected to reach 48 units annually. Saab is producing the aft fuselages for the Red Hawk, the first Draeger elaborated further: “Perfor- seven of which are being built in Linköping, All systems are ‘go’ for mance is squarely in the center of where Sweden, before production shifts to a new fourth- and fifth-generation operate.” factory at West Lafayette in Indiana. Moreover, the aircraft’s systems feature While the aim of the T-7 in the first Boeing’s Red Hawk trainer mission computers separated from the instance is advanced training, the type triplex flight-critical systems. That fea- has obvious applications to other tasks, by David Donald ture allows the aircraft to be digitally such as light attack. “We’re confident tailorable to synthetically mimic differ- it can fulfill the role,” said Brecken- Boeing’s two T-7A Red Hawk advanced temperatures that are being experienced ent aircraft types in terms of cockpit dis- ridge. “It was designed for growth from trainer development aircraft have com- in St. Louis, where the T-7A is assembled plays, radars, sensors, weapon systems, its inception.” The aircraft has a single pleted around 80 percent of Phase 1 and undergoing manufacturer’s tests. and defenses. For the student, that trans- centerline hardpoint for the carriage of testing, according to Thom Brecken- Engine re-start trials are upcoming, as is lates into an ability to see information stores such as practice bomb carriers, ridge, vice-president of Boeing Defense a campaign of high angle-of-attack trials presented in the cockpit in the same but it could be modified with under- global sales and marketing, strike, sur- using aircraft T-2, for which the instru- fashion as in the front-line aircraft, with wing hardpoints for additional pylons. veillance, and mobility. “We are on track mented nose boom normally fitted for its specific capabilities also replicated Another role to which the T-7 could be for achieving initial operational capabil- tests will be removed. onboard synthetically. adapted is carrier training as an answer ity in 2024,” he said in a press briefing on Draeger noted that the requirements of The T-7A is part of a wider training to the U.S. Navy’s UJTS requirement for July 14, “with first delivery in 2023.” Full social distancing amid the Covid-19 pan- system that Boeing is developing. A a T-45 Goshawk replacement. operational capability is slated for 2034. demic had demanded some operational T-1 and T-2, the first two Red Hawks, procedures to be modified, particularly have now flown more than 200 times, at with regard to briefing, debriefing, and some points achieving six flights a day launch/recovery. This has led to only one between them. Currently, the aircraft are T-7A being flown at any one time and a New members announced for team Tempest engaged in clearing a series of test points slightly reduced rate of testing. “Some that explore the T-7A’s full envelope, as opportunities have been lost,” he said. UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben bring with them further subject- matter well as testing the aircraft’s systems. Boeing, with partner Saab, is pro- Wallace on July 20 helped open the FIA experts and medium-sized companies Boeing’s chief test pilot for Air Force ducing the T-7A for the U.S. Air Connect event by naming seven additional as part of their supply chains, along with programs, Dan “Dragon” Draeger, Force’s advanced trainer requirement UK companies that had joined Team Tem- academic institutions. reported that the aircraft has been flown to replace the aging fleet of Northrop pest, which is developing a future combat Italy and Sweden are joining the UK to its highest speed and has proved its T-38 Talons. The current requirement air system (FCAS) for the RAF and other in the Tempest program, with the poten- fuel-flow system in inverted flight. It has stands at 351 aircraft. The partners European air forces and for export. tial for other national partners to partici- exceeded its threshold angle-of-attack took a clean-sheet approach to take The principal members of the team— pate. Earlier on July 20, Sweden’s Saab requirement of 20 degrees, and also its full advantage of innovations in design, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo said it is opening an offce in the UK to objective target of 25 degrees. It meets development, and manufacturing tech- UK, and MBDA—are being joined by develop FCAS technologies. “Saab took requirements of both instantaneous nologies. A key driver involved mak- General Electric UK, QinetiQ, Thales, the decision to create a new FCAS center and sustained turn rates, and has been ing the aircraft as close in character Martin-Baker (ejection seats), GKN so that we can further develop the close demonstrated at loads above the thresh- to modern fighters as possible while Aerospace, and Bombardier UK. Collins working relationship with the other FCAS old figure of 6.5 g as it approaches the keeping operating and acquisition Aerospace, which has a number of facil- industrial partners and the UK Ministry of objective of 7.5 g. It is also “very well- costs low. “It was designed to perform ities in the UK specializing in inertial and Defence,” said Saab’s president and CEO, behaved in a crosswind environment,” like a fighter, with precise high angle- terrain-based navigation systems and Micael Johansson. “This emphasizes the reported Draeger. of-attack maneuverability, something reconnaissance sensors, also has joined importance of both FCAS and the United Hot-weather trials now are getting our competitors just don’t have,” said the team. The companies would also Kingdom to Saab’s future.” D.D. underway, taking advantage of the high Breckenridge.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 31 Rolls-Royce said it expects a gradual recovery of its end markets as travel restrictions ease in the coming months, but it acknowledged an “elevated” level of uncertainty in the industry outlook. It now forecasts widebody engine flying hours to decline by about 55 percent this year, as more long-haul routes open in the fourth quarter. The company continues to Rolls-Royce’s Trent plan for about 250 widebody engine deliv- 1000 is reaching eries in 2020, based on announced build new levels of rates from its airframer customers. durability, with zero The company also reported anticipating Boeing 787 AOGs a reduction in cash burn resulting from achieved in early “cash mitigation actions” including supply July. A combination chain management and a one-third cut in of technical its civil aerospace workforce. Last month solutions and Rolls opened voluntary severance in the UK, provision of more including an “enhanced” early retirement spare engines for scheme. The company said it has received airlines has helped more than 3,000 expressions of interest for improve the AOG voluntary severance in the UK and that it situation. expected about two-thirds of those employ- ees to leave by the end of August. Meanwhile, an anticipated full-year free cash outflow of some £4 billion reflects an allowed a number of our customers to “unwind” of inventory in the second half, Rolls reaches single-digit avoid AOGs and is changing the way we a gradual improvement in engine flying support our customers,” Rolls-Royce said. hours, and an acceleration of cash savings. Eventually, the company hopes to use During the first half, the business saw a AOG goal with Trent 1000 Librestream to teach customer techni- severe decline in demand due to a drop in cians how to conduct other engine inspec- widebody engine flying hours by some 50 by Matt Thurber and Gregory Polek tions, which should give the airlines more percent, including a 75 percent decline in operational flexibility. the second quarter, due to Covid-19 effects. Rolls-Royce continues to report “good durability issue with the Trent 1000 TEN’s “We have been intensely focused on Since the low point in April, when flying progress” on fixing durability problems high-pressure turbine blades, identified addressing the Trent 1000 issues that hours had fallen 80 percent compared with plaguing the Trent 1000 engine, adding during a “rigorous root cause investiga- have caused unacceptable disruption April 2019, the company has seen a mar- that it has achieved the target of sin- tion and design process,” according to the to our customers,” said Chris Choler- ginal improvement in May and June led by gle-digit numbers of aircraft grounded by company. “We are now over three-quarters ton, Rolls-Royce’s president of Civil an increase in flights in China, Asia- Pacific, the end of the second quarter. of the way through this test and remain on Aerospace. “We deeply appreciate the and the Middle East. Business jet and Soon after issuing a July 9 trading track for its incorporation into the fleet by understanding and cooperation of our regional flight activity has begun to recover update for the first half of the year, the the end of H1 2021,” it reported. customers who have been impacted by more quickly due to lower exposure to company revealed its Dreamliner AOG During the coronavirus pandemic, this situation for a long time. Reaching cross-border routes, said the company. figures. “We have now reached a position Rolls-Royce has trained airline tech- zero AOGs is an important milestone for MRO activity in the first half remained where there are zero Boeing 787 aircraft nicians to conduct certain Trent 1000 us and our focus will be sustained to help broadly stable compared with the same on the ground (AOG) due to Trent 1000 inspections using Librestream’s digital our customers return aircraft to regular period in 2019 but lower than the pre- durability- related issues,” it said. visualization technology. The program service as they recover from the impact Covid-19 first-half schedule. The effort to improve Trent 1000 sup- eliminates the need for Rolls-Royce to of Covid-19, and to complete the fitment In terms of production, output of new port has centered on a number of measures, send an inspector to the airline or the air- of upgrades throughout the fleet. This will widebody engines proved consistent with the UK-based engine manufacturer said. line to send technicians to Rolls-Royce’s deliver the performance that we and our the company’s revised guidance of 250 They include technical solutions as well as Derby facility for training. “The ability to customers expect.” engines for the full year, as it shipped 130 increasing the availability of spare engines continue performing these inspections Meanwhile, in its trading update, engines in the first half. at the operator level, so airlines can more quickly swap engines and maintain flight schedules when a problem arises. Rolls-Royce said it has introduced the solutions on a “fast-track basis” to SR Technics introduces remote table inspections for engine work improve the Trent 1000’s in-service dura- bility. More than 99 percent of the flying Zurich-based MRO provider SR Technics is through video recording which is part of month. All of its repair customers can now fleet has received the improved interme- now offering remote table inspections (RTI) RTI and shorten the engine repair duration,” follow the progress of inspection work on diate pressure turbine blade. Engineers for engines at its facility. The new offering, explained Seahee Cho, a powerplant engi- their engines, components, and modules are fitting Trent 1000 TEN and Package which uses a video streaming portal, can neer for engine maintenance with Asiana remotely from their home bases. C engines with redesigned intermediate apply to any engine type or shop visit. Airlines, which has used the procedure as a “SR Technics is one of the first engine pressure compressor blades, which the According to the company, the use of customer and expects it to foster improved MRO providers to use video streaming company expects to make available for RTIs can help diminish waiting times, cut cooperation between clients and the MRO. technology for remote table inspections,” the Package B engines in the fourth quar- travel costs and processing time, and elim- “In addition, live streaming technology can said Owen McClave, the company’s senior ter. Rolls also reported that it should com- inate bottlenecks in the process. Because be used for various issues that are not lim- vice president for engine services. “Given plete the Trent 1000 TEN and Package C items do not need to be blocked as in a ited to table inspection and require further the great reduction in travel and face-to- blade roll program by the end of next year. physical table inspection, the remotely discussion.” face interactions in recent months, this is For the Package B and C engines, it has conducted process does not affect the SR Technics noted that development of yet another example of how our company upgraded more than 50 percent of the flow of engine materials. the innovation had already gotten under- has rapidly adapted to market demands fleet to the new, enhanced high-pressure “The advantages of RTI are various, and way when the Covid-19 pandemic struck while prioritizing the health of our custom- turbine blades. it is possible to manage the engine history in March, and it went live the following ers and personnel.” C.E. Rolls continues endurance testing a final

32 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Despite the drop in aviation traffic UK collaboration eyes due to the global Covid pandemic, Air bp still sees the sustainable composites widespread adoption of sustainable by Kerry Lynch aviation fuel as crucial to meeting As the aviation industry increasingly Composites, which are in demand for the industry’s carbon looks to incorporate composite materials their lightweight, strong, and durable reduction goals. into aircraft designs, UK researchers are qualities, will become an increasing part launching an initiative to drive the devel- of the retirements. Airliners with carbon- opment of sustainable materials and recy- fiber materials are beginning to enter cling technologies. the waste stream. But organizers of the Amid the Covid pandemic, The Sustainable Composites initiative initiative say the path for recycling such brings together industry, academia, and materials is not as developed or under- government to collaborate on research stood. Composites makers produce some Air bp optimistic about SAF that participants hope will address com- 110,000 tonnes of carbon-fiber materials plexities involved with recycling com- in the UK alone each year for various by Curt Epstein posites and build on a rapidly expanding industries, but an estimated 15 percent £2 billion global market for end-of-life will get reused or recycled. With severe reductions in aviation traffc previous alternative jet fuel processes recycling. The National Composites Typically, composites have been com- due to the Covid-19 pandemic, all sectors involved blending a refined SAF with con- Centre (NCC) and the Centre for Pro- posed of layers of materials and resin that of the industry have felt an effiect, among ventional Jet-A at the refinery gate. cess Innovation (CPI) lead the initiative, are heated and compressed. While they them fuel providers such as Air bp. The In 2016, the two companies signed an announced earlier this month by Nadhim can have a longer lifespan, “unpicking UK-based company has taken an active agreement giving BP a $30 million equity Zawahi, UK undersecretary of state for these elements in a recycling process is role in the push for the adoption of sus- investment in Fulcrum, which expects business, energy, and industrial strategy. diffcult, and current recycling techniques tainable aviation fuels (SAF), with its par- to bring its first major production plant “As home to some of the world’s lead- often degrade the material’s performance, ent BP Group committing back in February online this year near Reno, Nevada. The reducing their value and offiering limited to becoming a net-zero carbon emitter by two companies also agreed to terms on a applications,” organizers said. “In addi- 2050 or sooner. That goal aligns with the 500 million gallon jet fuel offitake agree- tion, more than 95 percent of composites aviation industry’s greater aspirations, ment that will provide Air bp with 50 mil- are made from raw materials and resins adopted in 2009, to achieve carbon- neutral lion gallons per year of low-carbon, drop-in that are derived from oil, making them growth from 2020, and in the long-term jet fuel. That deal is in addition to BP’s unsustainable.” halving 2005 levels of net CO2 emissions long-standing partnership with European The partnership will look at compos- from the sector by 2050. SAF provider Neste, and Parsons noted ites lifecycles to try to accelerate develop- “There will be some slowdown in avia- there are other agreements in the works. ment of new recycling technologies and tion traffc over the next few years com- But such plans, in the short term, might create new sustainable composites made pared to where it would have otherwise suffier from the effiects of Covid. “We’re from materials such as vegetable waste, been, but the trend is still very clear that in that phase of moving from occasional corn, nutshells, and algae. aviation will continue to grow over that one-offis into more continuous supply Work already is advancing on compos- long-term picture, while also needing to and I think in commercial aviation we’ve ites recycling. NCC has developed a pro- reduce its CO2 emissions substantially,” probably had to defer activities by three cess with Oxford Brookes University that said Tom Parsons, Air bp’s commercial or four months,” Parsons explained. dis-bonds composite materials through development manager for biojet. “I think we were coming into 2020 with heat. CPI, meanwhile, has explored means Sustainable fuels derive their envi- encouraging momentum, and a lot of to develop sustainable products using ronmental benefits not from their actual interest in sustainable aviation fuel from municipal solid waste. Others include burning, in which the carbon emissions both commercial airlines and general avi- West Midlands, UK-based ELG Carbon are nearly indistinguishable from conven- ation customers,” he explained. But with Composite parts like those manufactured by Fibre, which is the world’s first commer- tional jet fuels, but from their production the pandemic has come a slowdown in GKN will need eventual disposal, something cial recycler of carbon-fiber composites. lifecycle. “SAF typically saves up to 80 operations and, for many customers, a that the Sustainable Composites initiative The Sustainable Composites partner- percent of the CO2 over the lifecycle, so possible “reset” in their thinking. hopes to facilitate. ship plans to develop a series of research what that means is it’s using feedstocks Yet, unlike in the aftermath of the and development projects through coor- that either have taken CO2 out of the global economic meltdown more than a ing researchers and pioneering research dinated effiorts across the composites sup- atmosphere or that are already wastes decade ago, where some companies shied and development facilities, the UK has a ply chain, including materials and other within the system,” explained Parsons. away from sustainable activities, Parsons fantastic opportunity to create value from manufacturers, chemical suppliers, and “You turn that back into useful fuel and told AIN he believes this crisis is diffierent. waste across a whole range of sectors,” recycling companies. The projects will thereby avoid the additional production “We have been encouraged by many of Zawahi said. “The initiative we’re launch- be designed to advance new technologies, of crude oil, which is taking stored carbon those conversations continuing through ing today will help develop light, durable, investigate feedstocks, and develop prod- out of the ground and adding to the net this challenging period,” he said. and recyclable composite materials—not uct design and manufacturing processes. atmospheric CO₂.” As an example, Parsons cited govern- only saving vast amounts of energy but One such project involves a steam pro- The industry has gathered momentum ment bailouts offiered to airlines, some opening up new opportunities for some cess developed by B&M Longworth that as volumes of renewable fuel increase of which are being linked to carbon of our most critical industries.” could be used to reclaim resin and fibers. with the approval of new production path- emissions reduction. Aside from those In aerospace, the recycling rate of Then, team members will eye the use of ways. Championed by Fulcrum BioEnergy, financial incentives, he noted that public metallic aircraft is as much as 85 per- HiPerDiF technology developed at the the most recent involves the use of a syn- pressure might also play a role. cent. The value of end-of-life market for University of Bristol to realign fibers. thetic crude oil derived from municipal Even as the effiect of the pandemic con- aerospace alone—including recycling “We have the expertise in the UK to waste, which can be co-processed with tinues to be felt, there is evidence from and component resale—totals more than take the lead in developing the technol- petroleum at the refinery level. the SAF producers that their effiorts to £1.5 billion annually. Over the next two ogies and processes that make composite This latest approval moves the inclu- increase SAF supply continue unabated. decades, some 12,000 airliners will reach materials a net-zero carbon alternative,” sion of SAF further upstream in the “If anything, there have been more new the end of their useful life. The UK share said NCC chief executive Richard Old- process and will allow any standard petro- announcements than ever for new pro- of the market amounts to about £300m field. “We need to accelerate that innova- leum refinery to use the synthetic crude duction options over the last six months,” per annum, Sustainable Composites part- tion and lock in sustainability from design oil along with regular crude oil. Most said Parsons. ners estimated. to end-of-life.”

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 33 Eco-Design team applied product inno- vation lifecycle processes throughout development to ensure that the ultra- The Global 7500 is long-range business jet minimizes its the first business jet effect on the environment from design to to carry a published the aircraft’s end-of-life. That involved a Environmental Product focus on involved health, safety, and envi- Declaration disclosing ronmental considerations during design, detailed information production, support, and end-of-life. In about its lifecycle, such addition, the approach involved years of

as CO2 emissions, noise, collaboration with the supply chain. water consumption, and The team considered operational life-

INTOSH other key environmental cycles, including an evaluation of noise c impact indicators. and fuel burn. Further, Bombardier con-

DAVID M sidered recyclability and recovery rates for end-of-life, reporting that material recycling and energy recovery aggregate Stiller, director of business for The Inter- to an 85 percent recoverability rate by Global 7500 environmental national EPD System. “With the publica- weight for the Global 7500. tion of the first business jet EPD in our “The EPD for the Global 7500 business system, Bombardier is striving to provide jet embodies Bombardier’s commitment declaration marks bizav first customers and stakeholders with the full both to the environment and to the sus- environmental picture.” tainable advancement of the aviation by Kerry Lynch Bombardier called the publication of the industry,” said Bombardier Aviation Global 7500 EPD an important milestone president David Coleal. “We are thrilled Bombardier Aviation’s Global 7500 has other key environmental impact indica- in the company’s environmental sustain- to offer a comprehensive environmental become the first business jet to receive tors. Based in Sweden, The International ability strategy, which also has involved the footprint and performance overview of an Environmental Product Declaration EPD System has a library of published increased adoption of sustainable alterna- the Global 7500 throughout its lifecycle. (EPD) through The International EPD EPDs for products from 31 countries in tive fuels (SAF), a reduction in its CO2 By making this information available to System. Third-party verified to inter- an effort to foster transparency about footprint, expanded aircraft recyclability, our stakeholders, including operators, national ISO standards (ISO 14025 and environmental lifecycles. and the further sustainable sourcing. this EPD supports the business aviation related—for Type III environmental “We are proud to collaborate with The publication of the EPD is an out- industry’s broader approach to fight cli- declarations), the EPD discloses detailed Bombardier in its effort to provide full growth of efforts that Bombardier incor- mate change through clear, transparent environmental information about the transparency about the environmental porated throughout the development of goals and associated multipronged plans Global 7500’s lifecycle, such as CO2 performance of its Global 7500 jet from the Global 7500, the company said. In that encompass technology and sustain- emissions, noise, water consumption, and a lifecycle perspective,” said Sebastiaan a first for the company, a Bombardier able fuels.”

Microbial contamination of fuel an industry concern by Curt Epstein

The International Air Transport Associ- cause rapid proliferation of the microbes, ation has raised safety concerns about which can lead to fuel system fouling and possible microbial contamination of fuel corrosion. stored in aircraft grounded during the Onboard the aircraft the problems can Covid-19 pandemic. In a recent webinar include malfunctioning of fuel gauges, hosted with (A4A) rapid filter clogging, corrosion through- and the Joint Inspection Group (JIG), out the wing tanks and fuel system, and IATA also warned that the dangers could the necessity of increased maintenance extend to fuel storage units that are see- while in fuel farms. Microbe proliferation

ing less demand as a result of some 16,000 also can result in poor filter performance AMBROSE BARRY airliners being inactive due to the crisis. and so require more frequent cleaning to Microbes could contaminate fuel in airplanes grounded during the pandemic. JIG is the organization responsible for remove the accumulating biofilm. Since the development of aviation fuel supply water is heavier than fuel, most microbial For airports with hydrant fueling sys- it in the system. She explained that as the standards covering the entire supply growth will be found at the bottom of the tems, Taylor said it is also vital to conduct fuel cools, any water molecules suspended from refinery to aircraft. Lee Taylor, a tank or at the water/fuel interface layer. effective routine maintenance of below- in it will fall out of solution to accumulate member of its technical team and a qual- Taylor noted that while always a part of ground piping, where sediment and water at the lowest points of the tank or system, ified inspector, explained that the three the routine daily assessment of fuel qual- can accumulate. and that is from where samples should be sides of the microbial growth triangle ity, visual inspection of samples during When it comes to testing for micro- taken. Signs of contamination can include are jet fuel, microbes in the surrounding this time is even more crucial. “Not only bial contamination, the more sampling foul odors, brownish water, particulate environment as the result of downstream does it provide an early indication of gen- and testing the better, according to Amy matter, a lacy foam between the water and contamination, and water, which creates eral contamination such as dirt and water, Carico, A4A’s director of fuel services and fuel layers, slime or sludge, and discol- and sustains a viable environment for but also the presence of severe microbial technical standards. She told the webinar oration on filters, but as Carico noted, a organisms to grow and thrive. contamination,” he commented, adding that results can be different depending on contaminated system might exhibit none Due to the prevalence of microbes, that removing the water by good house- the location in the tank from which the of those symptoms. Once a sample is taken eliminating them from the system is vir- keeping techniques such as routine sam- sample came. it should be tested as soon as possible tually impossible, so the goal, Taylor said, pling and system flushing is the best way Carico said that water is present in all because the amount and types of microbes is preventing the conditions that can to inhibit microbial growth. fuel, and there is no way to avoid having present can change in just a few hours.

34 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com USAF places first order for Boeing F-15EX Eagle Fighter by David Donald

The U.S. Department of the Air Force on immediate way to refresh the capacity Monday awarded Boeing a contract to and update the capabilities provided by supply eight F-15EX multi-role fighters. our aging F-15C/D fleets,” said General The contract, worth just under $1.2 billion, Mike Holmes, Air Combat Command specifies the “design, development, inte- commander. “The F-15EX is ready to fight gration, manufacturing, test, verification, as soon as it comes off the line.” certification, delivery, sustainment, and Funding for the first eight F-15EXs modification of F-15EX aircraft, including comes from the Fiscal Year 2020 budget, spares, support equipment, training mate- with another 12 requested for FY21. The rials, technical data, and technical support.” Air Force plans to acquire 76 over the five- The first F-15EX takes shape in the St. Louis factory. It wears the Air Force serial 20-0001. The award of the first F-15EX order to year Future Years Defense Program. An Boeing follows a $101.3 million contract indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity trials aircraft. Some, if not all, will return air defense role, leaving the rear cockpit issued on June 30 to General Electric contract with a ceiling of almost $23 bil- to operational status at a later date. Subse- empty but available for growth and other to provide 19 F110-GE-129 engines for lion for 200 aircraft is being announced as quent operating locations will be selected to missions, such as working with air vehicles the eight aircraft, including three spares. well, and Boeing understands that future receive the type under the USAF’s Strategic in manned/unmanned teams. A decision Alternative engine provider Pratt & requirements will likely reach 144 aircraft. Basing Process. was taken to use the two-seat F-15QA as Whitney did not compete for the initial The Air Force bought the last of its cur- F-15EXs will replace the oldest F-15C/Ds the basis for the F-15EX to minimize delays engine requirement because the F-15QA rent fleet 19 years ago, when it acquired in the inventory, which are nearing the in getting the aircraft into production. Advanced Eagle (for Qatar), upon which the final handful of F-15E Strike Eagles in end of their structural lives. Due to the F-15A and two-seat TF-15A Eagles first the F-15EX is based, is engineered solely the FY01 budget. commonality between the C/D models entered USAF service in January 1976, but for the F110 turbofan. However, in May The first pair of F-15EXs is already at an and the EX, the switch will require “mini- the F-15EX is a very different beast. The the Air Force opened follow-on engine advanced stage of construction inside Boe- mal” transitional training and infrastruc- type has undergone considerable devel- supplies to competition. ing’s St. Louis factory, with delivery sched- ture changes. “When delivered, we expect opment, especially in recent years, driven Restarting F-15 production for the uled for the first quarter of 2021. Plans call bases currently operating the F-15 to tran- by the demands of the export market. The U.S. Air Force instead of increasing F-35 for all eight aircraft from the initial batch to sition to the new EX platform in a matter two-seat F-15EX features a high-speed procurement has been the subject of be delivered by the end of 2023 and assigned of months versus years,” said Holmes. fiber-optic backbone and an open mission considerable debate in recent times. to Eglin AFB in Florida for test and evalu- The Air Force initially plans to operate systems architecture that permits rapid “The F-15EX is the most affordable and ation, with six aircraft being designated as them primarily as single-seaters in the insertion of technology. It has an enhanced structure, APG-82 AESA radar, fly-by-wire flight control system that caters to greater load-carrying options, sophisticated elec- tronic warfare capabilities, and advanced Qatari Typhoon simulator to use CAE’s facets of flight training, including complex cockpit systems centered on wide-area tasks such as target identification, inflight screens in both cockpits. It is compatible Medallion Mission Reality e-Series visuals refueling, formation flying, and low-level with the Legion Pod infrared search and operations. Active eyewear provides 3D track system. BAE Systems has selected CAE’s Medal- of CAE’s 2020 fiscal year. depth perception, and the system compen- “The F-15EX’s digital backbone, open lion MR e-Series visual system for the CAE’s Medallion MR (Mission Reality) sates for head movement. The modeling mission systems, and generous payload full- mission simulators it will supply to the e-Series is a fully integrated vision system definition of targets or points of interest at capacity fit well with our vision for future Qatari Emiri Air Force. Announced in early for fast-jet training. It can offer 270- or range corresponds to normal eye limits. It net-enabled warfare,” said Dr. Will Roper, July, the deal involves the provision of four 360-degree dome capability depending employs industry-standard interfaces such assistant secretary of the Air Force for Medallion systems under contracts to be on requirements, and offers a realistic, as the Open Geospatial Consortium Com- Acquisition, Technology and Logistics. awarded in the third and fourth quarters immersive environment that supports all mon Database and the Common Image “Continually upgrading systems, and how Generator Interface. they share data across the Joint Force, is “BAE Systems did an exhaustive evalu- critical for defeating advanced threats.” ation of the latest visual display systems Prat Kumar, Boeing’s F-15 program available for fighter simulators, and we are manager, commented that, “F-15EX excited by their selection of the Medallion brings together benefits of digital engi- MR e-Series,” said Thibaut Trancart, CAE’s neering, open mission systems, and agile defense and security managing director for software development to keep it afford- the Middle East. “The exceptional realism able and upgradable for decades to come.” and immersion offered by the Medallion MR Boeing describes the increased pay- e-Series helps deliver significant training load capacity as “best in class” and the value by allowing complex and challenging airplane includes additional underwing fighter aircraft tasks to be rehearsed in a pylons that allow it to carry 12 air-to-air safe virtual environment.” missiles compared with the F-15C’s eight. Qatar is acquiring 24 Typhoons with For now the Air Force is happy with this BAE Systems serving as prime contractor. configuration, but if the aircraft is fit- The deal includes in-service support and a ted with Boeing’s Advanced Missile and training package. Qatari pilots are already Bomb Ejector Rack (AMBER), that could getting experience in a jointly staffed increase weapon carriage to more than Royal Air Force unit, No. 12(B) Squadron at 20. Critically, the F-15EX can also carry Coningsby. Formed on July 24, 2018, the large weapons on its centerline hard- The Medallion MR e-Series is a fully immersive simulation vision system that CAE says unit began joint flying operations on June point, including hypersonic missiles, greatly reduces eye-strain and fatigue. 19 this year. D.D. measuring up to 22 feet in length and weighing up to 7,000 pounds.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 35 UK Navy aircraft carrier on course for deployment by David Donald

HMS Queen Elizabeth, the first of two carrier will have its defenses upgraded with 65,000-tonne aircraft carriers for the Royal the addition of 30-mm cannons and an Navy, and her 1,100-strong crew have been additional Phalanx close-in weapon system. busy in 2020 as the work-up toward oper- All the activity involves preparations ational capability progresses. Recently for the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to the vessel returned to its home base at undertake its first operational deploy- Portsmouth after a 70-day Operational ment in May 2021. At present Queen Sea Training campaign in UK waters and Elizabeth will be accompanied by a sub- Four F-35Bs from No. 617 Squadron (“Dambusters”) and a single Merlin stand on the flight deck of is now undergoing planned maintenance marine, two Type 45 destroyers (Diamond Queen Elizabeth during carrier trials in June. ahead of the next round of trials. and Defender), two Type 23 frigates (Kent Having earlier conducted trials in U.S. and Richmond), the royal fleet auxiliary deck at some point during the deployment. more F-35Bs, of which only 48 are under waters with U.S.-based aircraft, Queen Fort Victoria, and a Tide-class tanker. Details of the tasking for the CSG have contract. That translates to a typical air Elizabeth undertook operations with Plans call for the air wing to consist of yet to be finalized, but it is expected to wing of just 12 aircraft, with the ability to UK-based F-35 Lightnings for the first eight UK F-35Bs and six Marine Corps sail to the Mediterranean and further east. embark 24 in emergencies. As each car- time in home waters in January, flown by jets, nine Merlin Mk 2s, and a number of In the meantime, sister-ship HMS rier is designed to operate up to 36, the pilots from the Lightning Force training AW159 Wildcat helicopters equipped to Prince of Wales arrived in Portsmouth in shortage represents a significant loss of unit, No. 207 (Reserve) Squadron. Cap- fire the Thales Martlet light missile. November last year, being commissioned potential airpower. tain Angus Essenhigh had only taken com- Three of the nine Merlin Mk 2s are into the Royal Navy the following month. Another procurement failure concerns mand of the vessel weeks before. expected to be fitted with developmen- It is expected to achieve operational capa- the Fleet Solid Support ship program, The ship sailed again in late April for tal Crowsnest radar sets to give the air bility in 2023. which is intended to provide three sup- Exercise Crimson Ocean, which began wing a measure of airborne early warning However, the UK’s carrier strike capa- port vessels. No orders have yet been with basic crew sea training and inspec- capability while the Navy waits for initial bility build-up has not all been smooth placed, leaving Fort Victoria as the only tion, before embarking the Merlin heli- operational clearance of the radar equip- sailing. In late June the National Audit suitable vessel in the fleet to support copters of 820 Naval Air Squadron in ment, which is scheduled for September. Offce (NAO), a government watchdog, modern carriers. Other shortcomings are mid-May. After a 48-hour return to Ports- Merlin Mk 4 assault transport helicopters published a report in which it questioned noted in delays to the Crowsnest radar, mouth to replenish stores and to embark will deploy as part of the CSG for carrier whether the carrier force could realize and no sign of a replacement for the Mer- engineers and equipment from the Light- onboard delivery duties, and Marine Corps its full potential due to delays in order- lin Mk 4 for intra-theater transport, which ning Force, Queen Elizabeth put to sea MV-22 Ospreys and CH-53E Sea Stallions ing equipment. In particular, the NAO was due to be replaced in that role at the again to await the arrival of the F-35Bs. might also operate from Queen Elizabeth’s highlighted the failure to have ordered end of next year. On June 9 the F-35Bs from the joint RAF/Royal Navy No. 617 Squadron—the famous “Dambusters” unit—landed on the carrier, marking the first time that operational UK jets had flown from the UK Ministry of Defence signs first Protector order carrier. Following an initial qualifica- tion phase, the aircraft began training in The UK Ministry of Defence has placed an said Wallace. “This aircraft will upgrade a due to its “sense-and-avoid” capability, in more operational tasks, such as launch- order for three General Atomics Protector whole range of lethal capabilities allowing turn permitting its use in civilian airspace ing aircraft to mount combat air patrols RG.Mk 1 vehicles for the RAF’s remotely-pi- us to control, protect, and manage the bat- for missions such as search and rescue to defend the carrier and its strike group, loted aircraft system (RPAS) force, Defence tlespace from the air for hours on end.” and disaster response. Protector also has and short-notice launches of up to four Secretary Ben Wallace announced on July Plans call for Protector to enter service anti-icing and lightning protection, allowing aircraft. Queen Elizabeth returned to 15. The initial contract is worth £65 million in mid-2024 from the RAF’s ISTAR (Intelli- for extreme weater operations. Planned Portsmouth on July 2. ($81.6 million) and includes three ground gence, surveillance, target acquisition, and weaponry includes the MBDA Brimstone Now the carrier is being prepared for control stations. The deal includes an option reconnaissance) hub at Waddington. With missile and Raytheon UK Paveway IV laser- another phase of work-up in which it for a further 13 Protector air vehicles to meet 16 aircraft in service, that will more than guided bomb. will exercise with forces from the U.S. the RAF’s planned total requirement for 16. double the RPAS capability offered by the Protector operators will take advantage and other NATO allies in a Joint Warrior “Protector will provide the RAF with vast current General Atomics MQ-9A Reaper of a new training initiative announced on Group Exercise. As part of the campaign, global reach, meeting the UK’s defense fleet. Protector is a development of the July 1 for the current Reaper fleet. Initial the vessel’s ability to act as a task group and security needs for decades to come, Reaper, offering a 40-hour endurance. Cru- training will now happen at the General flagship will be put to the test. From the air and provides another increase to the cially, it is the world’s first certified RPAS, Atomics test and training center at Grand side, a key component of the exercise will unmanned inventory for the armed forces,” enabling it to fly in unsegregated airspace Forks in North Dakota, where students will involve the joint embarkation of F-35Bs receive ground and basic aircraft operation from both No. 617 Squadron and the U.S. instruction. Meanwhile, prospective Reaper Marine Corps’ 3rd Marine Air Wing. Five operators will continue to undergo training UK aircraft will be partnered by 10 from at the CAE-operated U.S. Air Force training Marine squadron VMFA-211, supported by establishment at Holloman AFB, New Mexico. six Merlins. The U.S. aircraft will deploy After the initial training phase, operators to RAF Marham in the late summer for join the RAF’s No. 39 Squadron at Creech shore-based training with their UK coun- AFB, Nevada, which absorbed the RAF-spe- terparts. The carrier itself will require the cific training task from No. 54 Squadron’s addition of some Marines-specific equip- Reaper Training Flight. Once the Grand ment. The Corps has been operating the Forks activity is fully operating, the RAF F-35B from assault carriers since 2018. will have complete control of its training Exercise Crimson Warrior is due to fol- syllabus, negating the need for a conver- low, involving F-35Bs from both nations During 2019 the SkyGuardian/Protector development vehicle flew to Creech AFB in Nevada for sion course that teaches UK-specific tactics, undertaking simulated combat operations introduction to RAF personnel based there with Nos 13 and 39 Squadrons. techniques, and procedures. D.D. together from Marham. Meanwhile, the

36 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com On July 8, the FAA and Switzer- FAA leader says airline pax land’s Federal Offce of Civil Aviation announced that they have agreed to har- monize domestic and international safety must wear face coverings standards for unmanned aircraft systems. The two agencies will work together to by Charles Alcock engage in research and development, exchange ideas, personnel, and informa- Daniel Elwell, Airline passengers need to play their part For example, Georgia governor Brian Kemp tion as well as coordinate with other gov- FAA deputy in making flights safe and restoring con- is taking legal action against Atlanta mayor ernment entities and stakeholders. administrator fidence in the air transport system in the Keisha Lance Bottoms in a bid to stop her Elwell also pointed to the FAA’s new wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, accord- from enforcing a requirement to wear rules for remotely identifying drones, agency has committed to taking a “crawl, ing to FAA deputy administrator Daniel masks in public across the city. which he said the agency should finalize walk, run” approach. “We’re still crawl- Elwell. Giving a keynote address as part Nonetheless, Elwell expressed opti- by the end of 2020. The technology will ing with drones and when we graduate to of the FIA Connect event on July 23, he mism for an accelerated recovery in air- give unmanned aircraft service providers high-density urban operations we will be called on all travelers to wear face masks line traffc, pointing to rising passenger and the FAA an exact location and identifi- at the walking phase. We’re not there yet, at every stage of their journey, including numbers on some domestic services. He cation for every drone covered by the rule. but we’re close,” he commented. “AAM onboard the aircraft and in airports. said that the ICAO taskforce’s recovery The FAA has now registered more than will follow the same route and to reach “The recovery [of airline service] needs road map is practical and consistent with 1.6 million drones, of which 1.2 million are the running phases, entrants will have to to be a team sport and we can’t have some medical standards and depends on a small recreational drones. So far, the agency meet high safety standards that customers passengers only wearing masks some of social contract with all stakeholders. has approved two commercial drone oper- have come to expect. We must do it right.” the time or not following social distancing Separately, Elwell said that unmanned ations: UPS FlightForward, which delivers In his comments to the FIA Connect rules,” said Elwell, who is the U.S. repre- aircraft technology now ranks as a matter supplies to an assisted-living facility near event, which has replaced the usual Farn- sentative on the ICAO Council’s Aviation of the highest priority for FAA, which is Orlando, Florida, and Wing Aviation, which borough International Airshow, Elwell Recovery Taskforce. “All of us have to be increasingly focusing not only on smaller makes retail deliveries in the small commu- said that the FAA continues to consider vigilant to ensure that all guidance is fol- drones but the new larger passenger- and nity of Christianburg in Virginia. the UK a valued partner in the wake of the lowed. The U.S. government’s Runway to freight-carrying models that the agency “We have to make sure that safety pro- country’s Brexit departure from the Euro- Recovery policy echoes this and the pub- categorizes as Advanced Air Mobility pels innovation, and AAM epitomizes the pean Union. He reported that the U.S. lic are critical to [its implementation].” (AAM). “Unmanned aircraft are now most exciting innovation since the Wright agency recently started a new innovation Elwell’s comments come as political accepted as a vital sector of aviation and brothers,” said Elwell. workgroup with the UK’s Department of divisions in the U.S. deepen over the wear- we have to work across borders to ensure The FAA offcial cautioned that it won’t Transport and Civil Aviation Authority to ing of face masks, with lawmakers divided that what works in one country will work be easy to safely implement the fruits introduce innovation more rapidly and as to whether to legally enforce their use. in another,” he said. of such innovation, stressing that the safely into aviation.

military aircraft, as do some of its airline and information management services LeAnn Collins seeks new defense business jet cabin products, Timm added. Ridgeway, who leads the task force. “Continuing to expand the portfolio “There are things with the pandemic of applied commercial technologies for that we can’t control; we certainly under- business to bolster income defense applications is especially important stand and appreciate that destinations in light of the challenges we face on the com- have to open up and people have to feel by Jerry Siebenmark mercial side of our business,” he explained. a certain level of security to even want to At the same time, Collins continues get on an airplane,” she said. “But there Collins Aerospace is turning heavily to Future Vertical Lift. “Our defense portfo- to explore ways to accelerate recovery in are things we can control, which will defense as it attempts to offiset the effiects lio continues to perform well and includes commercial aviation, which still accounts improve the confidence and have more of the Covid-19 pandemic on commercial several of our company’s largest business for a big part of the company’s business. To people getting back on airplanes faster.” aviation, a primary industry for the Iowa- opportunities,” Timm said. that end, Collins has formed a 40- person With task force members working with based aerospace supplier. About 75 percent Collins also is applying products devel- internal Redefining Air Travel Task Force customers from airlines, airports, OEMs, of Collins’s business involves commercial oped on the civil aircraft side to military use to explore what commercial aviation can and government agencies and regulators, aviation, which has been hammered by the such as its Pro Line Fusion avionics. Orig- do collaboratively to hasten some sort of the committee aims to help the industry pandemic both domestically and interna- inally developed for business aircraft, Pro return to normalcy in the face of the pan- coalesce around a set of standards and tionally from travel restrictions, closed bor- Line Fusion now appears on a number of demic, said v-p and general manager of promote its efforts with a single voice. ders, and a steep drop in passenger demand. “And then we’ve got to communicate that “The impact has been significant,” said out there to the general public,” she said. Collins president Steve Timm. “Today, “Because right now…if you were the average our key focus is on recovery and maxi- flyer you’d be confused about ‘what can I mizing the opportunities on the defense expect when I go to an airport now? What side of our business.” That effiort includes can I expect between the diffierent airlines?’” the recent announcement that the U.S. Over the past few weeks, she said, the Air Force is joining the U.S. Navy’s tac- task force has made inroads toward meet- tical combat training system Increment ing its communication goals, Ridgeway II (TCTS Inc. II) program to field the said. The resulting unified messaging, next-generation air combat training she hopes, will raise public awareness of provision from Collins. It also includes measures already in place such as aircraft a contract awarded to Collins for the disinfecting, anti-viral coatings, HEPA fil- development of an enhanced visual acuity tration of cabins, and technologies such (EVA) system for Navy and Marine Corps as touchless ticketing kiosks and biomet- helicopter and tiltrotor pilots. ric screening meant to further reduce Other opportunities in defense include “touchpoints” for travelers. aircraft modernization and connected “I think the commonality and coming battlespace programs, as well as ISR and Collins Aerospace’s Pro Line Fusion avionics appears on the flight deck of an Airbus C295 together is what’s going to be the most training solutions and new aircraft pro- tactical airlifter. Collins is turning to more defense work as a way to offset a decline in its crucial part of it in getting that message grams such as the T-X trainer and Army commercial aviation business. out,” Ridgeway said.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 37 they will be ready with new aircraft by rejecting “recovery” on the grounds that the time the crisis is over. They will have it does not expect the industry to get back caught up and so we will see a quicker to 2019 levels during that phase. drive towards the ‘Chinese decade’ at the Roland Berger principal Neranjana latest in the 2030s.” de Silva told the webinar that the “new At the same time, the Roland Berger normal” will come beyond 2021 and will team concluded that the industry will have require companies to ready themselves to no choice but to maintain investments in reshape their supply chains and operat- technology to make aviation more envi- ing models. “We are in uncharted waters, ronmentally sustainable. “Demand for and strategies will need revisiting even for Airline capacity in China, which had fallen 80 percent year-over-year in early February, has sustainability will not disappear because those companies who did this as recently recovered to about a 30 percent deficit this month compared with 2019 levels. more people will now want the improved as last year,” she concluded. air quality that they have enjoyed [during According to Roland Berger managing the Covid reduction in flying],” Hader partner Robert Thomson, the effiect of commented. Covid-19 on civil aerospace will prove at New report predicts slow The company also sees the need for least as bad as the SARS outbreak, which continued investment in the increased was effiectively confined to Asia. “This automation of aircraft. However, in its truly is a perfect storm compared with recovery for civil aerospace view, such spending might slow in the previous shocks,” he concluded, on the near term as priorities shift. grounds that it involves a convergence of by Charles Alcock The new Roland Berger report titled economic downturn, a public health cri- “The New Normal Emerges: How the sis, fear of travel, and government restric- Airline capacity may not return to 2019 Hader said. “It only works if you reduce Aerospace Industry Can Weather This tions on travel—and all on a global level. levels until 2024, as a possible “new nor- capacity and overhead, and this means we Perfect Storm” concludes that the initial On the brighter side, he reported that mal” level of revenue passenger kilome- will see more job losses and more bigger crisis-management phase is now largely airline capacity in China, which had fallen ters (RPKs) reaches no more than 80 companies.” complete. This saw most companies act- 80 percent year-over-year in early Feb- percent of last year’s numbers by around One group of winners in the post- ing quickly to preserve financial liquidity ruary, had returned to about 30 percent the summer of 2022, according to the lat- Covid realignment of the industry, Roland through aggressive downsizing. down on 2019 levels by early July. est projections from aviation consultancy Berger predicts, will be Chinese OEMs, It expects the next phase of transition Thompson noted that airlines in Roland Berger. Presenting its updated which it feels are better placed than West- to run through the rest of 2020 and into North America and Europe have achieved projections at the FIA Connect event on ern rivals to take advantage of areas where 2021, as companies prepare for an “eff- increased capacity in recent weeks, but July 22, the company predicted that the demand might recover. “Airbus and Boe- cient restart after the crisis” through, predicted that even by the fourth quarter traffc declines will result in demand for ing are now losing time since [their main possibly, further changes to the size and of 2020 overall industry capacity might new airliners falling by as much as 43 per- markets] are not developing,” Hader said. effciency of operations. Roland Berger return to no more than 50 percent of 2019 cent over the next 10 years. “But Comac and Avic are accelerating and adopted the term “transition” after levels. “It is now clear that [the Covid-19 pandemic] is not a temporary crisis, it’s a structural crisis,” said Roland Berger senior partner Manfred Hader. In its latest report, the company has rejected Industry poised for levels of competition and lower profits, Davy as unrealistic two earlier scenarios that added. “Coupled with raised levels of vola- it considered: the first being a return to rising competition tility and uncertainties around the eventual 2019 airline capacity by the end of 2020 market structure, size, and dynamics, this and the second a recovery by the summer and lower profits will be a challenged sector for some time,” of 2021 and at 90 percent of 2019 capacity. he said. Ahead of the anticipated decline in new The aerospace market is positioned for Deloitte further believes that V-shaped aircraft orders, Roland Berger warned of a a significant transformation with smaller, recovery is now unlikely. Optimistically, the more immediate dip in demand for main- more focused companies expected to market could see a U-shaped recovery, but tenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) ser- emerge from a stark market that might take that is contingent on widespread testing and vices. In 2020, it expects airlines to spend at least five years to recover, analysts from a vaccine by late 2021. Complicating the mat- Aerospace businesses face a long between 60 to 75 percent less on MRO for Deloitte United Kingdom said. ter, geopolitical tensions portend “significant recovery and a reshaping of focus. large airliners due to the steep decline in Market metrics have painted a grim consequences to the aerospace market.” long-haul flights. short- and medium-term picture for the The market has first focused on survival smart factories, robotics, and other digiti- One significant anticipated medium- commercial aerospace market. Global pas- and shoring up liquidity, but now compa- zation effiorts. term outcome from Covid-19 is that major senger demand has plunged by 70 percent, nies are looking to adapt and change to Duncan Johnston, industrial products OEMs will slow plans to launch new air- 18,000 aircraft have been parked, and deliv- what is becoming the new business normal and construction leader for Deloitte United craft as they cut back on investments, eries appear likely to finish down by half this so they can once again position to grow, Kingdom, agreed, saying the industry could expects Roland Berger. Hader said he now year compared with 2019, Deloitte United Thomson said. see a period of selloffis of non-core busi- does not expect to see the next single-aisle Kingdom senior manager Matthew Davy However, without a clear consensus on nesses. Some manufacturing done in-house airliner until the mid-2030s, pointing to said July 21 during an FIA Connect webinar the challenges and paths to recovery, com- might get sold and necessary components recent statements from Airbus that imply titled “Transforming to be Competitive in panies are reacting in diffierent ways, said outsourced. In the past, OEMs have taken its next major new product could be a the New Normal.” Aircraft deliveries could Tim Archer, senior risk advisory partner for on component manufacturing where a sup- carbon- free aircraft in around 2035. take five or more years to recover, he said. Deloitte United Kingdom. The first action plier might be struggling, but Johnston sees Roland Berger also predicts greater Airline traffc could take up to a decade has been to cut costs, and the scale of job that tactic as less common as companies pressure for consolidation in the civil to fully recover, according to some models, losses “could be quite large.” The level of see less cashflow. aerospace sector. Furthermore, it antici- added Jonathan Thomson, Aerospace & cost reductions might be much greater than But in the short term, aerospace busi- pates a trend for companies to keep pro- Defense leader for Deloitte. To highlight the seen in the past, Archer said. nesses will grapple with supply-chain dis- duction closer to home, reversing, or at gravity of that drop, Thomson noted the 5 In the future, along with reduced work- tress and will need to revaluate pricing once least slowing, the shift to increased glo- percent slides following 9/11 and the global forces, increased effciencies, higher lev- structured around larger production flows. balization of the supply chain over the financial downturn in 2008 and the fact that els of productivity, and increased flexibility The industry likely will look at outside indus- past couple of decades. traffc had returned after both of those cri- will be necessary. “Change management tries for lessons-learned, such as the auto- “If you lose 30 to 50 percent of [mar- ses within 12 months. will need to be taken seriously,” he said, motive business, which has long focused on ket] capacity, [a correction] has to come The aerospace market will face rising opening the door to new systems such as such issues, he said. K.L. from somewhere to maintain prices,”

38 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com requirements early on for the X-59 and has “remained steadfast on those require- ments,” Iosifidis added. “We have not had a lot of changes and certainly no major change in requirements for the aircraft since the actual beginning of X-59.” Substantial high- and low-speed wind tunnel testing, conducted in advance, also Assembly of the kept the program on schedule. “All these wing and forward tests validated the fact that the design section of the NASA/ was sound and the aircraft was safe and it Lockheed Martin X-59 was going to achieve all the performance Quiet SuperSonic requirements that were established for Technology (QueSST) the program,” explained Iosifidis. “It demonstrator reduces risk as you move forward through is underway as the design and the manufacturing cycle of NASA strives to the aircraft.” demonstrate the Work has continued despite the feasibility of quiet complexities involved with operating supersonic travel during the Covid-19 pandemic, he added. over land. Although Lockheed Martin has encoun-

NASA tered some delays, particularly in some parts delivery, none have affiected any of the critical milestones, he said. “Every If successful, the X-59 would prove delay we’ve been able to accommodate NASA, LockMart progress that low boom does exist and at levels by shifting work around.” that will be acceptable to the general Once the airplane takes to the air, it will public, Iosifidis said. undergo a series of flight tests to expand toward SST demonstrator “We’ve been working on this type of the envelope. Those tests will take place technology—low-boom technology—for initially out of the Palmdale facility and by Kerry Lynch decades now,” he said, noting the “aha then at NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research moment” came in 2011 when a joint effiort Center at Edwards Air Force Base in Cal- NASA’s quest to reshape the landscape demonstrate that new designs and tech- with NASA demonstrated the feasibility ifornia, Coen said. Once the aircraft has for supersonic aircraft remains on track nologies will result in a softer, quieter sonic of design methods to move forward with demonstrated it has met the performance as assembly progresses on the X-59 “thud,” or low boom, that might prove more an aircraft that could meet the necessary characteristics, it will undergo tests for Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) acceptable to the public and pave the way noise requirements. “We found results of acoustics to ensure the noise signals are demonstrator. Developed by Lockheed for supersonic flight over land. [wind-tunnel tests] were in lockstep with as expected in various atmospheric condi- Martin under contract with NASA, the The effiort is “all about” the ban on predictions we had made for that design,” tions. This is important for the validity of partners will use the X-plane to test pub- supersonic flight over land, Iosifidis said. Iosifidis said. “Having that knowledge and the planned community trials, he said. lic perception of a sonic “thud” that new “All of us are flying commercially slower our confidence in those design methods The partners expect those tests to last supersonic designs create. today than we were decades ago,” he said. is what really started the wheels of full- between 15 to 18 months. Plans call for ini- In recent months Lockheed Martin had “Across the globe…technology has moved scale effiort to go build what ultimately is tial noise trials to begin near Armstrong begun to build the wing and flight deck forward and faster, but we seem to have known as X-59 now.” by late 2022 or early 2023, before the sections of the X-59 QueSST at its Skunk gone backward.” vehicle flies trials over diffierent commu- Works factory in Palmdale, California, “The idea is a future where simple X-59’s Aggressive Schedule nities throughout the U.S. The trials will and program offcials say the aircraft is supersonic flight contributes to the NASA awarded the contract in April of involve general public surveys to measure on schedule to fly toward the end of 2021. transformation and the decrease in the 2018 and Lockheed Martin has worked on response to sound exposure. NASA has “The aircraft is looking like the X-59,” time required to travel to distant places a “very aggressive schedule” since then, staged a “dry run” in Galveston, Texas, said Peter Iosifidis, who recently retired around the globe,” added Peter Coen, said Iosifidis. A lot of factors have played using an F-18 jet to test its survey and data as Lockheed Martin’s program manager the low boom flight demonstration mis- into the ability to keep a quick turn-time collection methods. for X-59 QueSST, at the American Insti- sion manager for NASA’s Aeronautics from contract to first flight in 2021. The goal is to complete the trials before tute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Research Mission Directorate. They include taking unusual approaches the end of Fiscal Year 2026, in time to (AIAA) Aviation Forum in June. The NASA’s vision is to research possibil- to the manufacturing of a one-offi vehicle. have data prepared for delivery to the forward fuselage and empennage were ities to make supersonic available to all Lockheed Martin began cutting metal International Civil Aviation Organiza- “coming together,” he said, adding that all segments, Coen said. But such travel suf- on its first parts by November 2018 and tion (ICAO) by early 2027, Coen said. The the structure was completely installed fers a perception issue. “We hear often loaded the first parts into the jig by June partners hope ICAO would be ready for on the wings, including some of the skins. that supersonic aircraft…being described 2019. But the company has been doing con- offiering a proposal on supersonic flight “We’re very far along with the aircraft,” as the son of the Concorde. That fuels a current engineering and manufacturing, by early 2028. Iosifidis said. “Everything has gone pretty misconception on some people’s part that Iosifidis said. “You have to start building a The effiort fits with the central role much as we had planned—nothing has future aircraft will be like the Concorde.” lot of your parts before the final design is that national research agencies and pol- happened thus far on this effiort that has While like the Concorde, future super- complete,” he explained. “Otherwise, the icy agencies play in developing new mar- jeopardized any of our critical milestones.” sonic aircraft will represent “amazing program could take an additional few years kets, he said, “providing fundamental Once complete, the X-59 will measure technological achievements,” Coen to bring it to completion. That is really not data—scientifically validated fundamen- 96 feet long, have a span of 29.5 feet, reach added. “They will be very unlike the Con- the kind of program NASA wanted. That tal data that can underlie the develop- speeds of Mach 1.4, and fly at an altitude corde in their impact on the environment increases cost.” ment of new rules and new standards of 55,000 feet. A key design requirement and their impact on the communities in In addition, Lockheed Martin has that enable innovation in the market of the X-59 is to replicate the noise effiects which they operate.” applied technologies typically used in but also protect the public both traveling of larger supersonic aircraft so that it can The developers envision supersonic large-scale manufacturing effiorts, such as and on the ground.” be used to conduct a series of trials over travel that is not only fast, he said, “but the use of robots capable of drilling thou- That’s why NASA chose the X-plane communities in the U.S. to assess the available to a broad spectrum of people sands of holes rapidly, to gain cost and approach, he said. “[Validation] could public’s sense of noise. and that is also effcient, affiordable, and schedule benefits. The robots are “not typ- only be achieved through flight,” noted But unlike the Concorde, the X-59 will environmentally responsible.” However, ically used on one-offi aircraft,” he added. Coen. “By using an X-plane, we can focus not emit what is commonly known as a to get there, the aviation community must In an effort to further help with on defining a minimum set of require- sonic boom. Instead, the partners hope to overcome public perception barriers. the timeline, NASA established the ments so we can achieve our goals.”

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 39 welcomed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s the country over the long term are now ADS: UK aerospace needs public support for the so-called JetZero less enthusiastic about making big commit- plan to introduce an electric- powered ments until they have a clearer view. That’s widebody airliner into commercial ser- why we need a quick and a good deal.” urgent, long-term support vice by 2050. While acknowledging the real hard- Before Covid struck, ADS’s biggest ship the air transport sector now endures, by Charles Alcock concern centered on the looming effect Everitt feels the fundamental drivers of the end of the Brexit transition period for demand to return remain in the ADS, the UK’s aerospace, defense, secu- for the UK’s departure from the EU on background. “We expect to see demand rity, and space industry association, has Dec. 31, 2020. Everitt confessed to feel- accelerating through 2021 and beyond,” called for the country’s government to ing anxious about the apparent failure he stated. “Airlines need to rebuild their significantly increase long-term financial of ongoing negotiations to agree on the finances before they can generate demand support for research and development. In terms for future trade relations. He said for new aircraft, but we are seeing patches response to the dual threats posed by the he most worries about the possibility that of blue sky ahead.” fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK and EU will not manage to settle So far, the civil aviation and aerospace Britain’s departure from the European Paul Everitt, the Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement side of ADS’s membership has endured Union (EU), the group’s CEO, Paul Ever- ADS CEO (BASA) intended to set the framework the most pain from Covid. While defense, itt, also urged the government to step up for future aviation regulation when the security, and space companies have all public procurement spending as part of a UK leaves EASA at the end of this year. endured the wider disruption, their sectors long-term defense and security strategic I am absolutely “The priority is to see an ambitious have felt less of an effect to date and there review now due to be concluded by the agreement to create certainty,” explained has even been some increase in demand for end of 2020. confident about Everitt. “We would have preferred for the technology associated with cybersecurity. “This is a very challenging period for the strong future of UK to remain part of EASA because it has Earlier this month, the UK government aviation and aerospace and we are seeing served everyone very well. Our concern is surprised many in the industry when major businesses reducing the number of this industry” for what would happen if we don’t get an it suddenly made around $500 million employees and resizing their companies agreement and so [at this point] we would available to buy a stake in struggling sat- in a way that has a very dramatic impact many companies are cash-strapped and prefer to see the Bilateral Aviation Safety ellite technology group OneWeb. Critics and in anticipation that it will take time so public support is critical.” Agreement lifted out of the wider negotia- characterized the deal as an ill-conceived to restore confidence and for demand to Underlining the fact that other major tions. [Aviation regulation] would not tra- move to provide cover for the controver- return,” he said in an interview with AIN aerospace nations have seen billions ditionally be part of a free trade agreement, sial circumstances under which the UK on the eve of the FIA Connect online event. of dollars of new government funding and we feel that safety and competitive- has been forced out of the Galileo global While acknowledging recent commit- announced in recent weeks while the UK ness is more important than the political navigation satellite system as part of the ments to support initiatives such as the government has largely focused on help- issues around the free trade agreement.” Brexit settlement. It has been criticized Aerospace Technology Institute, ADS ing sectors such as retail and hospitality, From ADS’s perspective, the contin- as another example of the UK having to expressed concern that the support could Everitt said that more support for the ued uncertainty over Britain’s post-Brexit needlessly reinvent the wheel to hold a prove to be no more than a short-term entire industry supply chain is imperative. position in the world economy makes stake in established technology for rea- response to the crisis. “The supply chain In March, before anyone could predict the it harder for its member companies to sons driven by politics rather than busi- will need additional financial support full effects of Covid, ADS supported calls forge partnerships and attract investors. ness expediency. and it needs to be long-term and more for public investment in research and According to Everitt, the wider tensions “We welcome the investment but what we patient,” Everitt insisted. development to increase from 1.7 percent between the U.S, the UK, and China and want to see now is how it impacts the shape “France, Germany, and the U.S. have of GDP to 2.4 percent by around the 2024- between the U.S. and Europe have not of the UK’s National Space Programme, responded in a big way [to support their 25 financial year. helped the situation at all. where it fits in with GPS, our existing com- aerospace industries]. If we aren’t able to According to ADS, the challenge posed “It is not the easiest time to sell invest- mitments, and what we are expecting to see match their ambition, the UK risks falling by the need to decarbonize aviation to ment into the UK,” he told AIN. “We have invested in defense and national security behind and not having the right technol- reduce the industry’s environmental tremendous experience and capability and capability,” Everitt responded. ogy available when it’s needed,” he said. footprint presents an opportunity for so there are always opportunities here, but A key feature of the FIA Connect online “This is even more important now because UK expertise to shine. Given that, Everitt some who have traditionally invested in event that ADS is co-hosting with its Farn- borough International subsidiary from July 20 to 24 is Farnborough Friday, through which the association seeks to engage with young people about the career oppor- tunities available in the industry. Despite all the anxieties that 2020 has brought so far, Everitt said he still relishes the chance to convince the next generation to join him and his colleagues. “I am absolutely confident and convinced about the strong future of this industry,” he concluded. “Opportunities like the JetZero challenge will bring really important new products, programs, and activities that will be very exciting for young engineers. The last 20 years have been about the industry mov- ing from being a niche to a large global UK industry group industry. The next phase is about how we ADS is calling for embrace much more agile and fast pro- larger, longer-term gram development and for that we need a public investment pipeline of new talent.” in research and development work at member companies such as YOUR SOURCE FOR AVIATION NEWS Rolls-Royce. www.ainonline.com

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FOR NEWS VIDEO FROM EBACE Airbus demos autonomous A350 taxi, takeoff, landing by Charles Alcock

Airbus has completed two years of flight expertise from several Airbus divisions, testing for its Autonomous Taxi, Take- including Acubed’s Project Wayfin- Off, and Landing (ATTOL) project. The der team, which developed the Vahana work culminated in a fully automatic, eVTOL technology demonstrator, as well vision-based flight of an A350-1000 wide- as Airbus Defence and Space and Airbus body airliner, achieved through the use of China. French national aerospace labora- on-board image-recognition technology, tory Onera also participated in the work. Airbus’s ATTOL project achieved several fully autonomous flights in which an A350 widebody which the manufacturer described as a According to Airbus, ATTOL was taxied, took off, and landed without intervention by pilots in the flight deck. world-first in a June 29 press statement. conceived to explore how autono- The program involved more than 500 mous technologies, including the use of “Many aircraft are already able to land detect its surrounding environment and cal- test flights and the team used about 450 machine-learning algorithms and auto- automatically,” explained ATTOL project culate how best to navigate within it. This of them to gather the raw video data that mated tools for data labeling, processing, lead Sebastien Giuliano. “But they’re reliant is achieved using a combination of sensors, Airbus engineers needed to support and and model generation could help pilots to on external infrastructure like instrument including cameras, radar, laser-based LiDAR, fine-tune the algorithms for the autono- focus more on strategic decision making landing systems or GPS signals. ATTOL and powerful onboard computers. mous technology. Six test flights evaluate and mission management during flights, aims to make this possible solely using “The key challenge for self-piloting autonomous flight capabilities, with each rather than on aircraft operations. The on-board technology to maximize efficiency capabilities is how the system reacts one including five takeoffs and landings goal is to boost the operational safety and to reduce infrastructure cost.” to unforeseen events,” said Wayfin- in the airliner. of existing airliners, but also potentially Acubed’s Wayfinder team developed the der project executive Arne Stoschek. Under the direction of the Airbus allow for autonomous flights by new gen- software that, based on computer vision “That’s the big jump from automated to UpNext team, ATTOL tapped technical eration eVTOL urban air mobility aircraft. and machine learning, allows an aircraft to autonomous.”

plan includes the development of a fully Boom preps for XB-1 supersonic rollout instrumented flight test control room and the use of one of FRI hangars for reassem- by Kerry Lynch bly and maintenance of the XB-1. The flight test program will be 100 Boom Supersonic will mark a signifi- stabilizer. The structure weighed in at just of simulations, Boom said. As for rollout, percent carbon-neutral and the program cant step toward the development of a 125 pounds and withstood up to 4,800 the entire event will be broadcast online. partners plan to fly the full-scale Overture supersonic airliner with a planned virtual pounds of force during testing, Boom said. “Our experiences in the Covid-19 on 100 percent sustainable fuels. “Boom rollout event for its XB-1 demonstrator While work proceeded with the tail, pandemic underscore for all of us the integrates sustainability considerations on October 7. Powered by three GE J85- Boom also was assembling the aft fuse- fundamental human need for personal into every major company decision and 15 engines, the XB-1 is a one-third scale lage using Stratasys 3D-printed drill connection. Faster travel enables us to is the first commercial airplane manufac- demonstrator that will be used to pave blocks to install the titanium panels. In experience the world’s people, cultures, turer to commit to a carbon-neutral test the way for Boom’s planned Mach 2.2 May, the company celebrated the instal- and places, and XB-1 is the first step in program,” said the company. Boom last 55-passenger Overture. lation of XB-1’s ogival delta wing to the bringing supersonic back to the world,” year had formed a partnership with Pro- The announced rollout date comes as forward fuselage, “effectively transform- said Blake Scholl, Boom founder and CEO. metheus Fuels for the supply of sustain- the XB-1 nears completion of assembly in ing the aircraft from a simple canoe shape “With XB-1, we’re demonstrating that we able jet fuel during the XB-1 test program. preparation for the beginning of ground to nearly assembled jet.” are prepared to bring back supersonic.” While the XB-1 will serve as a demon- tests later this year and flight trials in Still to come is the joining of the for- The XB-1 will be used to demonstrate strator only, used in experimental flights, 2021. Despite the difficulties involved ward and aft fuselages, attachment of the technologies for the Overture such as schedules call for the full-scale certifica- with development in the Covid-19 envi- engines to the aft fuselage, and systems carbon-fiber composite construction, tion program for the Overture to start in ronment, Boom continues to make and simulated flight tests. computer-optimized high-efficiency 2025 and for the ariplane to enter service progress on the demonstrator as major XB-1 development is the culmination aerodynamics, and supersonic propul- in or about 2030. structures come together. Recently, Boom of years of research, including wind tun- sion systems. This includes “one of the While the aircraft remains in the con- highlighted the completion of the vertical nel and structural testing, and hundreds highest-efficiency civil supersonic intakes ceptual design definition phase, Boom is ever tested,” Boom said. “More than a evaluating key components such as engine scale replica, XB-1 provides insights into choice. But the selection will “align with future cost-savings, safety, efficiency, and [Boom’s] focus on transoceanic routes sustainability for Overture.” and providing a meaningful speed up for Boom has partnered with Flight Research, passengers at the lowest cost.” Inc. (FRI) on the flight test program. Plans In addition, the engines must be capa- call for an incremental expansion of the ble of operating on 100 percent SAF. As envelope of the XB-1 to supersonic speeds. for the need for aromatics, the company Ground and low-speed taxi testing will said, “We expect that Overture’s engines occur at Centennial Airport in Colorado, will have less need for aromatics (for while high-speed taxi and flight are planned example, modern seals rely less on them), at Mojave Air and Space Port in California. but we are evaluating the use of synthetic Supersonic flights will take place over a aromatics when possible.” supersonic corridor stretching across the “We’re ensuring that the supersonic Mojave Desert. FRI is providing a two-seat, future is safe and environmentally and twin-jet supersonic trainer to serve as a economically sustainable,” Scholl said of chase plane during the flight test program. the $200 million airliner. Boom so far has Boom Supersonic has almost completed its XB-1 demonstrator and will roll it out publicly on Boom is subleasing a portion of FRI’s head- raised $160 million from investors for the October 7. The company has scheduled flight testing to begin in 2021. quarters to support the XB-1 tests. The program. .

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 41 Sustainable future boosts case for electric aircraft by Charles Alcock

The clear and continued damage being Much of the high-octane excitement done to the air travel sector by the around aviation’s electric new age is Covid-19 pandemic has prompted calls focused on the potential for eVTOL for a fundamental re-evaluation of the aircraft to vastly expand the potential industry’s business model. When, how, for what has become known as urban and whether airlines will be able to air mobility (UAM)–a vertical-lift niche safely carry passengers in commercially in the air transportation sector that is sustainable numbers is very much in already as old as the helicopter. Ride-hail- question. So too is the extent to which ing giant Uber has sought to lead the South Korean automotive group Hyundai has committed to spending $1.5 billion to bring an private aviation might play a larger and charge to make this a reality with its eVTOL aircraft into service with Uber’s planned air taxi network. different role in the public transporta- plans to launch app-based Uber Elevate tion equation. networks in cities such as Dallas and Los sector, with new fundraising completed couple of years. It would now appear that But the questions have run deeper, Angeles from around 2023. The company by companies such as Lilium and even the financial fallout from Covid might with amplified calls for a reassessment insists that it is sticking with the plans, some more startups, such as California- accelerate the natural selection process of aviation’s longer-term environmen- despite its well-documented loss of rev- based Archer Aviation. that seems likely to thin the herd more tal sustainability as part of public policy enues from car services. There are possibly at most about a quickly than expected. This has made the discussions headlined by slogans like At last count, about 250 companies dozen other eVTOL pioneers who appear availability of government support all the “Green New Deal.” In the UK, Prime Min- have plans to develop eVTOL aircraft best set to make it to market—based on more welcome, and the U.S. Air Force’s ister Boris Johnson has gone on record of various shapes and sizes. Others seek their sufficient funding, credible leader- Agility Prime newly released proposals to committing government support for early adoption of electric aviation through ship, and a realistic timeline for achiev- work with companies to develop dual-use the industry to make the move toward new fixed-wing models that would offer ing type certification. Given the limited civil-military technology appears particu- carbon- neutrality a key plank of its long- greater range than the short hops prom- payload of many of the eVTOL designs, larly timely. term survival strategy. On June 30, he ised by the eVTOL crowd. autonomous (i.e. pilotless) operations are Despite current uncertainties, prog- pledged that the UK will lead efforts to Of course, no one seriously believes a key aspiration for many of the programs, ress is being made on many fronts and get a long-haul, zero-emissions airliner that 250 eVTOL designs will make it to the which adds to the degree of difficulty for the 2020s still show promise to go down in service by 2050 under an ill-defined market. On close inspection, many of those service entry. In the short- to medium- as the decade of electric aviation. Quite project dubbed JetZero. programs have wildly insufficient funding term, it seems that aircraft able to harness apart from the influx of hype-fueled start- Electric aircraft, starting with and are led by people who made a small hybrid propulsion and enter service with ups, the sector has drawn the more mea- hybrid-powered models, are viewed as fortune in unrelated technology ventures pilots are most likely to prove the initial sured, but nonetheless focused, attention a key element in fulfilling such ambi- and who now seem hell-bent on risking the viability of urban air mobility and wider of some leading aerospace groups, includ- tions. At the same time, some pioneers loss of those fortunes to the aviation bug. applications, such as providing connec- ing Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce, Safran, are advancing the case for hydrogen fuel Some have asked whether the surge of tivity on longer routes not well served by BAE Systems, and Honeywell (which in cells as an alternative foundation for investment seen in this sector between traditional airlines. June formed a new division specifically to new-generation propulsion systems since 2017 and 2019 would continue this year, Since about the end of the first quarter address the needs of the market). they overcome the limitations of today’s especially in the wake of the Covid cri- of 2020 the pace has certainly not matched On July 23, France’s VoltAero plans battery technology. sis. Some more money has come into the the Gold Rush-like atmosphere of the past to fly for the first time its 800-hp hybrid electric powertrain being developed for its Cassio fixed-wing aircraft. The com- pany is working on a family of aircraft, Lilium R003 including a four-seat Cassio 330, a six-seat Cassio 480, and a 10-seat Cassio 600. It says production could start in 2022 and estimates it will make an $80 million investment to get to that point. At Cranfield University in the UK, ZeroAvia last month flew a hydrogen- powered six-seat Piper M-Class light air- craft as part of the UK’s HyFlyer program to advance zero-emissions aviation. The VoltAero Cassio California-based company says it will have a 10- to 20-seat version certified with hydrogen propulsion by the end of 2023, and a 50- to 100-seat model by 2030. Joby S4 By 2040, it believes it could be possible for aircraft carrying 200 passengers to make flights of more than 3,000 miles . In late June, Airbus completed a two-year schedule of flight testing for its Autono- mous, Taxi, Take-off and Landing (ATTOL) project. That culminated in a fully auto- matic, vision-based flight of an A350-1000 widebody airliner, achieved using on-board image-recognition technology. Several Airbus divisions have been Wisk Cora involved in the work and the company appears to envision multiple applications

42 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com for the technology. The work could California-based company claims it will EHang delivered 61 examples of its 216 December 2019, also has conducted flight include incremental efforts to increase be able to have its initial four-seat aircraft AAV to several dealers and partners in trials in the U.S., but those plans appear the degree of autonomy in the operation certified to start air taxi operations with countries including Norway, with a view to be on hold for now. of existing fixed-wing aircraft. One of Uber by the end of 2023. to allowing them to be demonstrated to This story comes from FutureFlight.aero the Airbus subsidiaries contributing to Less than three months later, in prospective customers. The company, Wresource developed by AIN to provide ATTOL was Acubed, which was behind April, South Korean car maker Hyundai which completed an initial public offer- the Vahana eVTOL technology demon- announced its own plans to develop a ing on New York’s Nasdaq market in strator. Meanwhile, four-passenger eVTOL aircraft that for is this year due to complete flight test- now is designated as the S-A1. The com- ing of the CityAirbus demonstrator. The pany has committed to spending $1.5 lessons learned from those programs are billion on its plans to enter the urban air expected to shape the European group’s mobility market through the end of 2025. longer-term plans for the eVTOL market, In Germany, two startups seem to be which it sees taking another full decade setting the pace among European eVTOL to come to fruition. Even after announc- contenders. Both Lilium and Volocopter ing unprecedented financial cutbacks on have ambitions not only to build aircraft, June 30, with the loss of around 15,000 but also to operate them, which perhaps jobs, Airbus indicated that it remains explains why they have not sought to committed to making advances in electric partner with Uber. aviation as part of its longer-term aspira- Back in late March, just as the Covid tions in carbon neutrality. lockdowns were beginning, Lilium com- That said, in late April, Airbus and Rolls- pleted a $240 million fundraising round Royce announced that they are abandon- to take its total backing to $340 million. ing their joint program to develop the It imminently expects to resume flight E-Fan X hybrid-electric airliner based on testing of its all-electric Lilium Jet, which a BAE RJ100 aircraft as part of a reassess- promises a range of up to 186 miles, mak- ment of priorities in the wake of Covid-19 ing it suitable for connecting cities, rather disruption. As recently as February, the than just intra-urban short rides. partners had said they planned to achieve Volocopter claims it will have its two- BAE Systems is working to produce control systems for new electric aircraft like Jaunt first flight during 2021. seat VoloCity model certified and ready Air Mobility’s planned family of eVTOL models. The systems need to be far smaller and Boeing also has plans for the eVTOL to start operations by early 2023. The lighter than the unit shown (inset) on a conventional turbofan engine. sector. Over the past couple of years, it all-electric design is intended for short has been working on both a Cargo Air hops of little more than 22 miles and Vehicle and a Passenger Air Vehicle (the the company is also developing a cargo- BAE reduces sizes of energy systems latter being a project of its Aurora Flight carrying version called the VoloDrone. In BAE Systems is reducing the size and expects to see its equipment flying on vari- Sciences subsidiary). Last year, it part- February, logistics group DB Schenker weight of its energy management and ous prototypes in development from about nered with startup Kitty Hawk to form a invested in Volocopter through an ffi87 engine controls technology to be used with the middle of 2021. In addition to Jaunt, the new venture called Wisk, which is devel- million ($99 million) Series C funding propulsion systems for new hybrid-electric group has publicly confirmed its partnership oping the Cora two-seat eVTOL. round, taking the total capital behind the and electric aircraft. The company has with Wright Electric, which is working with The all-electric Cora has completed company to ffi122 million. Other back- already produced equipment that is 40 UK low-cost airline EasyJet to develop a more than 1,300 flight tests in New Zea- ers include Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance percent smaller and lighter than units now hybrid-electric 186-seat airliner. BAE says it land and California, offering a range of Group, MS&AD Ventures, TransLink Cap- in service on much larger turbofans, while is working with several other new aircraft just over 60 miles and at speeds of about ital, Lukasz Gadowski, and Btov. claiming that they will deliver 10 times the programs on a confidential basis. 112 mph. Wisk has yet to publish a time- In the UK, Vertical Aerospace appears processing power. As part of the eVTOL sector’s ambi- line for service entry but indicated last to be leading a pack of home-grown The project, which BAE unveiled in tions to achieve autonomous flight, BAE is month that it already has plans for larger eVTOL contenders. The company is June, is part of a wider effort by the group looking to develop new integrated flight versions of the aircraft. backed by Ovo Energy founder Stephen to partner with developers of new electric controls for functions such as managing There are currently eight partners in Fitzpatrick and in January launched a aircraft. The group is also offering flight aircraft stability and redundancy. “Our the Uber Elevate program, which is sup- fundraising campaign to generate the fur- controls and power conversion technology work in this area is taking in all aspects posed to be laying the foundations for ther $100 million it estimates it will need for programs such as Jaunt Air Mobility’s of the aviate, navigate, and communicate the ride-hailing group’s planned Uber Air to get its first aircraft certified during family of eVTOL aircraft. functions and we are trying to consolidate network. They include Jaunt Air Mobility, 2024. Just like the larger energy management all these controls in a single, smaller box Boeing’s Aurora subsidiary, Karem Air- Vertical, which has recruited experi- and engine control units, the new reduced with the reduced weight that these aircraft craft, Joby Aviation, Hyundai, Pipistrel, enced aerospace engineers from compa- scale units use a series of sensors to moni- need,” said Premkumar. One key challenge Bell, and Embraer. nies including Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, tor the performance of the propulsion sys- on which the company’s engineers are Jaunt Air Mobility is working on a “com- and Boeing, is now working on a full-scale tems. Based on the information collected, focused is the need to avoid latency and pound helicopter” design featuring a main prototype for a design featuring a wing the controls can automatically adjust lag in the operation of systems supporting rotor and a fixed-wing with propellers for and open rotors that it hopes to fly for the power settings as needed. The data is also increasingly automated and, eventually, cruise flight. The privately-owned U.S. first time during 2020. The all-electric air- used to predict when failures might occur autonomous flight. company is partnered with Honeywell, craft, which will feature a Honeywell flight and manage any required maintenance The miniaturization process is also being Triumph Aerospace Structures, and BAE control system, is expected to deliver a safely and efficiently. applied to the power conversion units that Systems and aims to get an aircraft certi- range of almost 100 miles and speeds of UK-based BAE already has extensive the new generation aircraft will require fied under FAA Part 29 rules for commer- up to about 150 mph. experience in providing the technology for their electric propulsion systems. Back cial rotorcraft by the end of 2025, followed Another prominent eVTOL contender for electrically powered buses, trucks, and in the 1990s, BAE was among the first by an autonomous version by the end of is China’s EHang, which is working ships. This aspect of its work with electric companies to use lithium-ion batteries for 2029. Jaunt envisions several different on single- and two-seat versions of its aircraft developers is being run by the ground-based applications. Acknowledg- applications for the all-electric eVTOL, all-electric Autonomous Aerial Vehicle. Controls & Avionics Solutions business of ing the limitations of current battery tech- including air taxi, emergency medical, The company continues to enjoy close its U.S.-based Electronic Systems division. nology in terms of power-to-weight ratios, freight deliveries, and military support. cooperation from the Civil Aviation BAE recently opened a new electrification Premkumar said that the company wants to In January 2020, Joby Aviation received Administration of China, which is allow- lab at its facility in Endicott, New York. prepare the way for more extensive use of a major boost for its eVTOL plans by ing it to conduct extensive flight trials in Yeshwanth Premkumar, BAE’s head of new generation batteries in aviation, while raising a further $590 million in capital, locations such as Guangzhou and Taizhou. business development and strategy for for now focusing much of its effort on a of which $394 million came from the Despite having no published timeline aircraft electrification, told AIN that he hybrid-electric powerplant. C.A. Japanese automotive group Toyota. The for completing type certification, in 2019

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 43 Cabin germ-shield concepts raise feasibility issues by Gregory Polek

Covid-19 has prompted several manufac- company marketing the product would turers of airliner interiors products to speed need to prove its effectiveness in pre- the development of systems to inhibit the venting airborne droplets from spreading spread of germs between passengers using from passenger to passenger and con- seat partitions and transparencies. But vince potential airlines of its utility. certification experts and International Air “Most of the time, when someone sub- Transport Association director general mits a supplemental type certification Alexandre de Juniac harbor doubts about plan in normal times, whenever that is, their viability given the stringent require- you’re looking at a couple of years,” said ments the FAA and the EASA impose on Rioux. “If you want to do it really fast, any modification to aircraft seating. probably 18 to 24 months, and most of the AvioInteriors’ Janus concept features a center seat of a three-abreast layout positioned in Companies marketing the products time it’s probably 24 to 36 months.” the opposite direction from those on the aisle and next to windows. include Italy’s AvioInteriors, whose fairly In terms of retesting seats to 16-g ambitious Janus product features a middle crashworthiness requirements, Rioux Institute in Oklahoma City], and went cost gets shared between the manufac- seat that faces in the opposite direction; explained that several variables come into through an emergency evacuation,” he turer and the customer. Dutch firm Aviation Glass, which offers a consideration, including how a glass or said. “They filled the cabin up with smoke “I guess it comes down to how much less elaborate tempered glass divider that acrylic partition gets fastened to the seat. and you couldn’t see your fingers right in the airline wants to spend and if the seat fits between seats; and Lyon, France-based “If it’s some kind of temporary fastening front of your eyeball. And we had to get out manufacturer is willing to absorb some of Vision Systems, which offers a so-called system, and I’m not saying that necessar- in 90 seconds and it was tough. You liter- that cost, so that he’s now the guy up front “plug-and-play” transparency that does not ily will be the case, but if you put a 16-g ally have to crawl on your hands and knees.” who says, ‘Hey, Mr. Southwest, I’ve got require adaptation to the seats. Tier 1 sup- load on it, what happens if it comes off?” STC cost considerations also come into this brand new [product]. I’ve already got pliers that have joined the effort include asked Rioux. “Does it become a projectile? play. Each airline customer could need it certified to this point and we want to put Safran, which bills its Ringfence prod- Does it shatter?” separate approval or at least a variance to it into your airplane,’” said Gumm. “And uct as a simple and efficient removable Also referencing the regulations high- account for different airplane configura- then [the customer will] absorb the costs partition; and Lufthansa Technik, which lighted by De Juniac involving emergency tions and each aircraft type would need to do the certification for the airplane. So expects its rather rudimentary plastic evacuation, Rioux questioned the ability its own STC. Retired McDonnell Douglas you’ve got to ask who’s going to provide transparency inserted into middle-seat of an entire load of passengers exiting an and Boeing senior FAA certification engi- what funds to get things done. Now you magazine compartments to gain supple- airliner within 90 seconds with seat par- neer and DER Butch Gumm estimated an go to, let’s say United, which has a very mental type certificate (STC) approval in titions adding an extra obstacle to nego- STC could cost, in total, as much as $2 mil- diverse fleet of both Boeing and Airbus or two to three months. tiate in a cabin filled with smoke. “When lion. Whether or not such a cost renders a whatever. You have to go through a certi- Speaking during a June 9 conference I worked in the airline industry, I actu- product unmarketable, said Gumm, boils fication process for each model of airplane. call on the financial state of member ally went to [the Civil Aerospace Medical down to simple economics and how the So if United is willing to spend, let’s say airlines during the pandemic, De Juniac another $150,000 per model to get that specifically raised the potential difficul- put in their airplane, it’s not cheap.” ties associated with emergency evacua- Covid guidelines: control systems, food and beverage ser- Responding to some of the certifica- tion requirements for gaining STCs for vice, lavatory access, crew protection, tion concerns raised by De Juniac and the more elaborate concepts. “I don’t what the world’s management of sick passengers or crew Rioux, Aviation Glass managing director think airlines will implement this type of members, and cleaning and disinfection of Jaap Wiersema noted that his company equipment that looks now not useful and aviation authorities the flight deck, cabin, and cargo compart- introduced its glass product in response could be difficult to certify,” he said. In ment. Recommendations include keeping to flammability issues associate with plas- fact, most of the companies began to mar- recommend passengers seated as far apart as possible, tic shields. Calling AeroGlass “light in ket the products when concerns began to limiting or suspending food and beverage weight, scratch-resistant, and fireproof,” spread over the potential for regulations Global aviation authorities have largely services, and restricting lavatory access, Wiersema said it already has passed that would require open middle seats in adopted guidelines for Covid 19 mitigation leaving one lavatory for crew use only 60-second burn and heat-release tests a three-abreast seat configuration, for recommended by the International Civil where possible. and meets requirements related to smoke example. Guidelines issued since then by Aviation Organization’s Council Aviation The crew module contains specific density and toxicity. the International Civil Aviation Organi- Recovery Task Force (CART). The CART— guidance addressing the contact of a Wiersema didn’t address the challenges zation’s Council Aviation Recovery Task established in the spring as a means to crew member with a suspected or pos- of evacuation tests, however, noting that Force (CART) do not call for mandated advise member states, international and itive Covid-19 case, reporting for duty, responsibility lies with the design organi- empty seats, raising the question of regional organizations, and industry on dedicated end-to-end crew layover best zation in charge of the installation of the whether part of the initial rationale for safety and “sustainably” restarting opera- practices, crew members experiencing product. While conceding that certifica- the partitions still exists. tions—issued guidelines consisting of four Covid-19 symptoms during layover, and tion could take up to two years “in normal Michael Rioux, the chief operating offi- operational “modules” related to airports, positioning of crew. circumstances,” he said he expected that cer of technical services and consultancy aircraft, crew, and cargo. Finally, the cargo module addresses the parties involved—including the seat firm JDA Aviation Technology Solutions, Airport guidance includes recommen- physical distancing, personal sanitation, manufacturer and the engineering firm explained that several certification chal- dations for the terminal building, cleaning, protective barriers at the point of trans- applying for the STC—can accelerate the lenges could present practically impene- disinfecting, hygiene, physical distancing, fer to the ramp among other mitigation process for this particular application. trable cost and time barriers. staff protection, access, check-in area, procedures. “We are all aware that the Covid-19 Applying for an STC with the FAA, for security screening, airside areas, gate The International Air Transportation crisis is not a normal situation,” said example, would raise weight and bal- installations, passenger transfer, disem- Association, which participated in the Wiersema. “If the customers and indus- ance considerations as well as the need barking, claim, and arrivals areas. CART, uses the ICAO guidelines as the try need this safe solution for traveling for 16-g crashworthiness, flammabil- The aircraft module contains specific basis for its own recommendations, as and if EASA/FAA sees this also as a prior- ity, and 90-second evacuation testing. guidance addressing processes, does EASA, while the FAA refers to Cen- ity, the process can be accelerated. A lot Operator manuals would need adapta- seat assignment processes, baggage, ters for Disease Control guidelines, which of testing of the AeroGlass has already tion to reflect installation, cleaning, and interaction on board, environmental closely resemble those of ICAO. G.P. been performed in connection with other maintenance requirements. Finally, the applications.”

44 Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report \ July 2020 \ ainonline.com Study: random boarding could reduce virus exposure by Kerry Lynch

While many airlines have adopted prac- navigating the current health crisis.” tices such as keeping middle seats open Using about 16,000 simulations, the and boarding from back to front in study looked at “person-minute” mea- response to the Covid-19 pandemic, pre- sures of contact, or the number of min- liminary academic research suggests utes a person stands within six feet of that random boarding may be a better someone during boarding. The simula- approach to limiting exposure rates. tions involved varied parameters such as Still in peer review, the research sug- walking speed, proximity, and the num- gests that random boarding could reduce ber of people, and tested several boarding exposure rates by 50 percent, reported patterns, such as front-to-back, back-to- Several universities teamed on research that questions whether boarding from back-to-front Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University front, six boarding zones, and random is the most effective approach. (ERAU), which participated in the study boarding through one zone. alongside researchers from Florida State “It turns out the one-zone, random policy erred, exposing passengers to sub- airlines afford to fly with empty seats?” University, the University of West Florida, boarding model eventually results in a stantially higher infection risk than their Namilae asked. Also effective is the use of and Arizona State University. lower number of contacts,” Namilae said. original procedures,” said Srinivasan. more, but smaller aircraft to transport the “[The findings] suggest that airlines “Other patterns tend to increase the time “This result shows that good intention is same number of passengers as one larger should either revert to their earlier board- a passenger waits in close proximity to not a substitute for good science when it aircraft would carry. ing process or adopt the better random fellow travelers.” comes to determining policies.” But Namilae and his team saw a need process,” said Ashok Srinivasan of the Uni- Looking at an Airbus 320 at full capacity, Economics were considered through- to find a middle ground and believe the versity of West Florida, a co-author of the the simulations recorded 43,000 person- out the simulations. For instance, other, conversation should begin with boarding. research paper. minutes of contact. This compares with more costly scenarios were evaluated “There’s evidence of a lot of diseases, An important aspect of this research 60,000 person-minutes for six-zone and shown to be effective in significantly such as tuberculosis and SARS, being is understanding how molecules travel, boarding, and 90,000 person-minutes for reducing risk. This included keeping mid- transmitted on airplanes and in air travel,” added Sirish Namilae, associate profes- back-to-front boarding, ERAU said. dle seats unoccupied, which showed to be Namilae said. “Boarding is one of the crit- sor of aerospace engineering at ERAU “Our analysis indicates that airlines effective in significantly reducing infec- ical aspects of air travel that contributes and co-author to the study. Namilae pre- that changed to a back-to-front boarding tion risk. “The problem is, how long can to the spread of diseases. Any steps we viously researched how viruses spread in can take to reduce the spread would help.” airport and airplane environments during Tasvirul Islam of the University of West the Ebola outbreak in 2017. While back-to-front boarding has been Florida served as lead author of the study. “While back-to-front boarding has instituted by some airlines to try and Other participants included Sadeghi Lahi- been instituted by some airlines to try jani of Florida State University, and A. and reduce contact between people, our reduce contact between people, our simulations Mubayi and M. Scotch of Arizona State simulations show that high-density clus- show that high-density clusters can form as University. A National Science Foundation ters can form as people stow their luggage people stow their luggage while other grant supported the research, conducted in while other passengers are still pushing part through the assistance of a supercom- toward the back of the aircraft,” Nami- passengers are still pushing toward the back of puter at Argonne Leadership Computing lae said. “We hope that our research will the aircraft” Facility, a U.S. Department of Energy Office prove useful to the airline industry in — Sirish Namilae, ERAU associate professor of aerospace engineering of Science User Facility.

larger hub airports to reinforce their particularly around supply and demand, Cranfield research points positions. traffic resilience, passenger behavior, The executives also cited concern health regulations, and business ethics,” about the recovery of business travel, said Cranfield University senior lecturer to a smaller airline industry mainly due to the cancellation of meet- Pere Suau-Sanchez. “Understanding these ings, incentives, conferencing and exhibi- structural elements in an integrated way by Gregory Polek tions events, and the uneven lift of travel can provide more confidence in efforts to bans. Meanwhile, many said they expect a predict the future context. As the views Research led by the UK’s Cranfield Univer- recovery in international markets will faster recuperation of the leisure passen- of senior stakeholders might change as sity has found that the Covid-19 pandemic prove slower than in domestic markets. ger segment; however, reduced disposable the crisis evolves, a record of their early will lead to a smaller, more consolidated Several also identified the potential entry incomes would curtail propensity to fly assessments also represents a valuable air transport industry in the future. The of new airlines in international carriers’ and require significant support, such as reference for future analysis.” study—involving a series of interviews home hub markets as a threat. route subsidies. They also identified fear Cranfield conducted interviews with with senior aviation industry executives Meanwhile, interviewees identified and health concerns as more of a concern 16 managers from across the airline and along with analysis of flight and air freight regional airlines as possible short-term among leisure travelers than among busi- airport sectors (including major, low-cost, data—provides an early assessment of the winners during the recovery period as ness travelers. and regional carriers, large hub, medium- medium- and long-term effects of Covid-19 they could help full-service carriers Finally, all the interviewees believed size, and regional airports, a pilots’ on both passenger and cargo traffic. Inter- adjust feed capacity. They also expect that authorities would impose new health union, and an aviation insurance broker) viewees expressed concern about the pos- low-cost carriers to concentrate their screening controls at airports, translating between March 19 and April 17. Research- sible differences in state aid and how those efforts in primary markets and possibly into higher costs for those facilities and ers also analyzed global flight supply and variations could affect competitive balance enter hub airports while reducing fre- passengers alike. air freight data—including origin and in a post-Covid environment. quencies at the route level. As a result, “We focused on identifying aspects destination airport, time of departure and The executives largely agreed that regional and secondary airports will that can structurally redefine the avia- arrival, number of seats supplied, aircraft Covid will most likely affect full-service likely suffer as capacity opens in larger tion industry in the medium and long type, and day of operation—for the first network carriers the most because the markets, attracting airlines and enabling term for both passenger and cargo traffic, four months of 2020.

ainonline.com \ July 2020 \ Mid-Year Aerospace and Air Transport Report 45 “We’re leading a double life, cutting costs CTOs optimistic on net-zero 2050 target every day and working as hard as ever for plans for sustainable aviation.” While by Matt Thurber Safran concluded that some cuts were nec- essary during the pandemic, “We made sure As the UK forms the Jet Zero Council and Airbus is collaborating with the UK gov- some key actions were preserved,” Cueille affrms its commitment net-zero carbon ernment and fully supports the net-zero noted. “Keeping the pace of innovation of emissions for UK aviation and aerospace program and already plans on a goal of a future generations of engines is vital.” by 2050, a panel of chief technology off- carbon-neutral aircraft by 2035. That will Safran is participating with 40 other cers from major aerospace companies dis- require Airbus “to continue investing in companies and universities in the next cussed how to reach those goals during an Paul Stein, disruptive solutions,” she said, but will also pan-European clean aviation research FIA Connect conference. Rolls-Royce require collaboration with other companies. program. “We’re convinced we have a “We’ve been taking the journey to net- CTO “There has been progress,” Vittadini path [to achieve net-zero goals],” he said. zero seriously for a number of months,” said, in the three key elements of the effiort, “Technology-wise, we intend to reduce said Rolls-Royce CTO Paul Stein during which include more effcient engines, fur- energy consumption,” Cueille explained. the CTO Summit session. But what is decarbonization by 2050, assuming no ther commercialization of SAF, and new “In parallel, we need to replace fuel by interesting is that the industry is accel- offisetting, we’ll need 500 million tonnes aircraft and propulsion technologies. For low-carbon-emission fuels, such as [SAF erating the plans instead of “picking back of SAF by 2050. It’s achievable, but it’s a example, Airbus is developing hydrogen sourced from biomass], synthetic fuels, or up where we were,” he explained, adding massive industrial undertaking.” as a clean fuel for future aircraft, but also hydrogen. SAF is a key element of the mix, that he is working closely with other com- Rolls-Royce, meanwhile, is working on examining novel design principles, air traf- not just a gap filler.” panies’ CTOs to help reach those targets. more effcient engines, and its massive fic management improvements, and much Trying to reach 50 percent SAF use “[Sustainable aviation fuel] is one of UltraFan project will lower fuel burn by more widespread distribution of SAF. by the world’s airlines in 2050 will take biggest games in town for decarbonizing 10 percent, especially important for long- “We need to take our inventiveness massive investment, he noted, and part aviation,” he said. “Where CO2 is emit- range airliners. For shorter-range aircraft, even further,” she said. “Sustainability is of the problem is the lack of incentive to ted today is two-thirds of all fuel burn novel propulsion methods are key, such as a key prerequisite for aviation. And this switch to a more expensive fuel. “They’re on journeys longer than 1,000 miles, pure electric, hybrid-electric, and hydro- can only happen if we channel the power fighting for their lives,” he said. “We need pre-Covid. Most next-generation tech- gen power. “Eventually some of those will of the collective. The pandemic has not an element of a level playing field, which nologies for beyond 600 to 1,000 miles work up into larger aircraft,” he said. pushed sustainability down in the agenda. public policies can address.” run out of steam. We don’t see a way of Airbus CTO Grazia Vittadini echoed It’s quite the opposite. We need to con- “The increasing influence of people using third-generation technology for Stein’s sentiments while issuing a note tinue full speed ahead with confidence like [the CTOs on the panel] shows this those routes. So we need SAF that doesn’t of caution. “Air travel is facing its big- that zero-emission aviation is possible. is not policy, it’s real-life solutions,” said involve fossil fuel-based production.” gest depression in history…it’s critical We see that in times of crisis, you acti- Michael Gill, executive director of the Eventually, the plan is to push today’s that technology and design innovations vate resources and a level of creativity you Air Transport Action Group. While he allowance of 50 percent SAF blended respond to customer and societal needs,” didn’t think you had.” acknowledged that governments need with jet fuel to 100 percent SAF. “If we she said. “We’ll only be successful in “In spite of the crisis, we’re more than to help establish a policy framework that had enough SAF today at the right price, decarbonization if we work together. And ever committed [to sustainability],” said embraces such effiorts, he added, more aviation wouldn’t have a problem,” said the pressure will rise even more when we Stéphane Cueille, Safran senior executive important are “real-life solutions like Stein. “If we set a target of 100 percent get out of this [pandemic].” v-p research, technology, and Innovation. these companies are working on.”

the organization’s strategy manager. He Group sees value in UK added that airlines might currently lack financing for non-essential upgrades. While ATI expects demand to return to cabin systems suppliers near-previous forecast levels, it cautioned of a huge amount of risk and uncertainty Will by Curt Epstein due to several variables, including success McClintock, in controlling the virus by international ATI strategy Despite the downturn in the aviation Key capabilities include seating design governments; industry support packages manager industry, the UK’s Aerospace Technology and manufacture, systems, monu- to prop up airlines and manufacturers; pas- Institute (ATI) believes good opportunities ments, lighting, satcom and connectivity, senger fears of infection; the depth of any still exist for the country’s cabin systems and fabrics as well as electrical power sys- anticipated financial recession; and even is sustainable, light, and energy-effcient. suppliers and manufacturers. Founded in tems, composites, and metallic structures. the traveling population’s attitude toward Cabin equipment manufacturers face 2014 with a mission to lead and stimulate Last November, before the onset of the sustainability, all of which could vary from increasing pressure to deliver high vol- technology in the UK’s air transport indus- Covid pandemic, ATI issued a forecast country to country. The recertification pro- umes on time in a short timeframe, all try, the independent company enjoys the valuing the interiors market cess for the Boeing 737 Max and the evolu- while keeping down costs. backing of both government and industry at $495 billion by 2037, steadily rising at tion of the widebody airliner market also McClintock, who spoke in an FIA Con- to serve as a focal point for the technol- 3.3 percent from $19 billion in 2020 to $35 remain considerations, the latter of partic- nect session, sees a trend at airlines to buy ogy community. Its annual budget of £150 billion in 2037. Highlighted growth areas ular concern for the cabin interior segment. direct from interior suppliers instead of million provides for grant allocations to in that prediction included inflight enter- While a widebody cabin is worth choosing from aircraft manufacturer selec- companies to develop innovations that will tainment, which the forecast estimated several times that of a narrowbody, as tions. To counter that, OEMs are looking bring long-term value to the UK. will rise by 5.4 percent annually, and con- platform choices consolidate, ATI sees to provide their own interior product lines In its latest insight paper, the organi- nectivity, which ATI said would grow 7 per- demand for the widebody segment wan- and attempting to bring more products zation focused on the UK Cabin Oppor- cent annually over that span, both driven ing with weak order books overall due to under supplier furnished equipment (SFE) tunity in cooperation with industry primarily through the retrofit market. several factors. They include potentially contracts. Some say the trend harms the consultancy Achieving the Difference The realities of the pandemic have reduced business travel as virtual meet- push for innovation, particularly among and Cranfield University. ATI noted that changed that outlook, with ATI now antici- ings gain in popularity and capability, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), the UK possesses a world-class industrial pating a four-year recovery to return to 2019 for long haul routes, unease among trav- which have less spending power and fewer supply hub in London with a concentra- market size. It reported that both the origi- elers about extended periods in confined economies of scale. As a result, potential tion of creativity and innovation. The nal equipment and retrofit markets felt par- spaces. Meanwhile, according to ATI, the customers might overlook SMEs or con- UK cabin interiors supply chain last year ticularly severe effiects, the latter brought emergence of longer-range narrowbody sider them too risky to enroll in SFE con- generated £2 billion in sales, 3 percent of to “a near hard stop in demand and slow aircraft will erode widebody market share. tracts, or they might choose to go to a larger which came from aircraft seating alone. recovery,” according to Will McClintock, Airline customers seek equipment that company for a more integrated offiering.

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