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The Effects of American Scientific Communities and Industry on Us Chemical & Biological Weapons Policy

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The Effects of American Scientific Communities and Industry on Us Chemical & Biological Weapons Policy THE EFFECTS OF AMERICAN SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITIES AND INDUSTRY ON US CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS POLICY by KAREN JANE WINZOSKI B.A. (Hon), The University of Calgary, 1999 M.A., The University of Calgary, 2001 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Political Science) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May 2007 © Karen Jane Winzoski, 2007 ABSTRACT This thesis examines the effects that scientific communities and domestic industry have had on US chemical and biological weapons policy over the last forty years, and in particular their influence in the successful ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1997, and the US rejection of the proposed verification protocol for the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in 2001. To explore the interaction of scientific communities, industry and government, scientific and industrial publications from 1965 to 2006 were systematically researched, and interviews were conducted with individuals from academia, industry and government who were directly involved with the formulation of US chemical and biological weapons policy. This thesis concludes that scientists have at times exerted considerable influence over US chemical weapons policy. Furthermore, concerted efforts in support of chemical disarmament on the part of the US chemical industry made a tremendous contribution towards the success of the CWC. It also concludes that even though the microbiology community had a significant impact on US biological weapons policy in the 1960s, the biotech revolution split the microbiology community into two competing factions, and decreased the influence of scientists who continued to lobby for arms control. Furthermore, this study finds that although the pharmaceutical and biotech industry is frequently blamed for the failure of the BWC verification protocol, in reality it played a minor role in this decision. Several of this study's findings have implications for International Relations theories that examine how and why arms control regimes emerge, in particular the epistemic communities and Military-Industrial Complex literatures. Consistent with Matthew Evangelista's analysis of the effects of international epistemic communities on Soviet nuclear policy, this study demonstrates that scientists are most influential when they develop personal relationships with high-ranking policymakers, particularly the head of state. Perhaps this study's most original theoretical finding is that although corporations involved with defence are invariably assumed to be motivated solely by their own financial interests, even by non-rationalist theories, these industries can pursue more enlightened ends. Thus, this study opens a door for International Relations scholars to think of defence industry interests as politically interesting. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ii Table of Contents iii List of Tables v Acknowledgements '. vi Dedication vii CHAPTER 1: Introduction 1 The problem & the research project 1 Significance of the research project 8 Data collection 9 Outline & major arguments 13 CHAPTER 2: Theoretical review 17 Realism & Neorealism 18 Neo-liberal Institutionalism 26 Two-Level Games: Robert Putnam 32 Two-Level Games Continued: Helen Milner 35 The Military-Industrial Complex 38 US Public Policy Literature 41 Sociological Institutionalism & Social Constructivism : 50 Epistemic Communities 53 CHAPTER 3: Case Study #1 - Chemical Weapons Control: 1965-1997 58 In the Beginning 58 Vietnam & the Geneva Protocol: Changing Ideas About Chemical Weapons .59 Additional Examples of a Politically Active and Influential Scientific Community 70 Binary Weapons: Diminishing Influence 76 The Chemical Weapons Convention 85 The US Chemical Industry 94 Chemical Weapons Control since 1997 109 Questions and Answers Ill CHAPTER 4: Case Study #2 - Biological Weapons Control: 1965-2006 130 The Sciences and Biological Arms Control: 1965 to 1972 130 The Development of the BWC 139 The Biotech Revolution and What Followed 146 The US Microbiology Community & Its Effects on US Policy Towards the BWC Verification Protocol. 153 The Pharmaceutical and Biotech Industry and Its Effects on US BW Arms Control Policy '. 164 The Pharmaceutical Industry's Reaction to the BWC's Verification Protocol 171 More Questions and Answers I...188 CHAPTER 5: Conclusion..... 200 The effects of scientific communities on US chemical and biological weapons policy, and their implications for epistemic communities — 200 The effects of industry on US chemical and biological weapons policy, and their implications for the Military-Industrial Complex approach 204 Other important findings: Effectiveness and the biological weapons norm 211 Personal relationships & other contingencies 214 The declining influence of scientific communities 218 Suggestions for further research 220 Bibliography 227 Table 1.0: Timeline of Major Events..'. 235 Appendix I: UBC Research Ethics Board Certificates of Approval 237 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1.0: Timeline of Major Events 233 v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thanks to the University of British Columbia Faculty of Graduate Studies, Sir Quo-Wei Lee, Emergency Preparedness Canada, and the Simons Centre for Peace and Disarmament Studies for research funding; Smith College Provost Charles Staelin for travel funds; Mlada Bukovansky, Pat Coby, Miki Fabry, and Greg White at Smith College for support and encouragement; Raul Pacheco and Phil Orchard for comments on earlier drafts; university examiners Peter Dauvergne and John Beatty for thoughtful commentary and helpful suggestions for future research; external examiners Trevor Findlay and Douglas Ross for challenging questions and insightful assessments of my work; examination chair Diana Lary for a smooth and congenial defense; supervisory committee members Brian Job and Michael Wallace for moral support and helpful comments on several drafts; Dean pro tern, Graduate Education Ann Rose for repeated intervention on my behalf; research supervisor Richard Price for tolerance and unwavering support of all kinds; and Dennis Winzoski, Judy Winzoski, Amy Taylor, Lissi Inman, Kerry Inman, Colin Green and Bonnie Hsieh for everything. vi DEDICATION To E.M. Levin, who would have done something similar, given the opportunity. Chapter 1 - INTRODUCTION The problem & the research project This study begins with an apparent anomaly: that in 1997 an international treaty containing verification procedures to eliminate the threat of chemical weapons use came into force, but in 2001 multilateral efforts to establish a similar verification protocol for the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) failed. Why should this have occurred? Biological weapons possess less military utility and yet are more reviled and feared than chemical weapons. It therefore stands to reason that states would be more eager to accept a treaty with an effective verification regime for biological weapons than chemical weapons. Yet, this is not what occurred. This research project will be directed towards resolving this anomaly. In what direction should we begin for an answer to this puzzle? The success or failure of a major international initiative like a multilateral arms control treaty obviously depends upon a myriad of factors and actors, and a detailed comparative analysis of these to explain variation in these two cases is beyond the scope of this thesis. No one would plausibly contend, however, that the role of the U.S. was not of paramount importance in each case, as it is immediately apparent that the United States played a major role in both the success of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the failure of the Biological Weapons Convention's verification protocol. Thus this thesis' more limited but indispensable contribution to understanding the puzzle is to understand the opposite role played by the U.S. in these two major arms control treaties, and specifically to understand the role of actors widely assumed to have played a determinative role in the failure of the BWTC. That the U.S. should play such a pivotal role should come as no surprise: as the most powerful state in the international system, the United States should figure prominently in both sets of negotiations. As a hegemon, the US should be expected to assume some sort of leadership role in international relations, and much of the 1 responsibility for enforcing both treaties would likely fall on the US. In addition, both the United States and the Soviet Union — its chief rival for much of the latter half of the 20th century — once had extensive chemical and biological weapons programs, and therefore both would probably have strong opinions on the format of proposed arms control regimes in any negotiations over this matter. In addition, the US has large and profitable chemical and biotech/ pharmaceutical industries that might be affected by the implementation of a verification regime; therefore the US government might be expected to take an active role in the negotiation of these two regimes, so as to protect the interests of domestic industry. As it turned out, the United States was an ardent supporter of the Chemical Weapons Convention, and adopted a leadership role in many negotiations. But, the same cannot be said for its reaction to the BWC. In the autumn of 2001 the United States withdrew from negotiations to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention through the addition of a verification protocol. In statements indicating the American positions on the two treaties,
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