DOCSLIB.ORG

Marine Corps Intelligence Activity

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Marine Corps Intelligence Activity UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Marine Corps Intelligence Activity Marine Corps Midrange Threat Estimate: 2005-2015 Information Cutoff Date: 1 July 2005 This is a Department of Defense Intelligence Document Prepared by: Global Threats Branch Production and Analysis Company Marine Corps Intelligence Activity This publication supersedes the Midrange Threat Estimate: 2001-2010 (Unclassified), MCIA-1586-001-01, August 2001. COPYRIGHT WARNING: Further dissemination of the images in this publication is not authorized. MCIA-1586-001-05 (Reverse Blank) UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Marine Corps Midrange Threat Estimate 2005-2015 EXECUTIVE The degree to which the United States can maintain its security in the 21st century will be SUMMARY determined by how well the United States responds to a transitioning world. Marine Corps forces will be challenged by emerging technical, military, and geopolitical threats; by the growing resourcefulness and the ingenuity of non-state actors and terrorist networks; and by natural disasters. Globalization has both positive and negative effects on world dynamics. I States unable to keep pace with globalization will continue to grant increased powers to non-state actors (non-government organizations, private security/military organizations, criminals, gangs and terrorists). I Failing states heavily populated with a costly aging population and a highly unemployed youth provide breeding grounds for terrorist groups. I Demands of the modern and globalized state will continue to place increasing pressure on dwindling natural resources, including oil, water, and minerals. Unusual alliances will form to secure scarce resources. I Globalization has eroded national identity and unity through the expansion of media and communication systems, technology, and popular culture, resulting in a surge of global religious movements. I Globalization impacts characterization of modern warfare. Conventional war, while still a threat (Iran, North Korea, China) has taken a back seat to asymmetric and irregular types of warfare. Suicide bombings, child solders and acts of terrorism defy the rules of warfare. The ease of global transportation makes it easy for jihadists worldwide to infil- trate Iraq, while global communications have provided radicals with an ability to fund, network, and organize. Major natural and man-made disasters will continue to increase in frequency and severity throughout the world and will produce permanent changes to societies, ecosystems and environments, along with material damage, loss of life, distress and displacement. As a result, more complex humanitarian relief emergencies can be expected. Infectious diseases will likely remain the world’s leading cause of death. This is due, in part, to increased population density, poor sanitation, and increasing global transportation. The explosion of information and communications technology propels the evolution of political and social values, actions, and forms of organization. Global media and the internet provide adversaries the ability to shape global opinion and create an information operations force multiplier that the United States has yet to successfully counter. iii UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Threats in the 21st century will be unconventional, unforeseen, and unpredictable (U3) from adversaries using asymmetric approaches and irregular tactics. Potential adversaries, states and non-state actors, will be adaptive, creative and become increasingly sophisticated using lessons learned from encounters with American weapons and tactics and apply those les- sons learned with increasing complexity, adaptability, and skill by using non-linear, irregu- lar activities. Warfare in the 21st century has transitioned from conventional to asymmetric. Potential adversaries of the United States recognize their relative impotence in conventional, force- on-force operations; they instead seek to draw the United States into arenas where its con- ventional capabilities and technological edge are blunted. Asymmetric threats and irregular warfare are among the primary threats to U.S. Marine forces. Future warfare will be increasingly shaped by the following: I Strategically, war will not be defined by direct military-on-military attack; instead, vio- lence will focus asymmetrically on undermining deployed troops and U.S. policies. I Tactically, warfare will include attempts to disrupt order and distract U.S. forces and undermine popular support and legitimacy for U.S. intervention. The enemy’s goal is not to test the “three-block” Marine but to require a marine on every block. I Organizationally, warfare will move from the hierarchy of military command to a more cell-based, leaderless group structure that maximizes convenience and tactical adapta- tion, emphasizes and minimizes network vulnerability. I Ideologically, warfare will be driven by new identities outside basic nationalism. State, cultural, religious, and individual perspectives will combine to create evolving groups and objectives. Twenty-first century threats will be enhanced by adversaries’ cultural and geographic famil- iarity with their environments. Future adversaries to the Unites States will be driven by ide- ologies that do not restrict the nature of conflict and will be unfettered by borders, boundaries, or rules. They will assimilate with the local populations using the urban envi- ronment for cover and concealment. They will also pursue understanding of U.S. military tactics, techniques, and procedures to accumulate a modern, effective arsenal. Information operations (IO), terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are the dominant strategic and tactical asymmetrical threats of concern domestically and overseas. I Extremist organizations (including terrorists), intelligence services and criminal groups along with nation states are likely to continue pursuing IO capabilities, including attack and exploitation capabilities, and propaganda and media manipulation. I Terrorism is the most likely asymmetric threat to U.S. interests at home and abroad. Ter- rorist groups will continue to be decentralized, self-reliant, innovative, and networked. I Ten countries are believed to have nuclear weapons. Terrorist groups and other rogue ele- ments will seek to obtain and/or develop WMD, including chemical and biological agents. Potential adversaries will have increasing access to both low technology and high technol- ogy weapons, which used to be exclusive to nation-states. Future threats and strategies will employ a variety of technologies in both conventional and asymmetrical ways. U.S. supremacy in conventional warfare will remain unchallenged until possibly 2020. Of the iv UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY five principal operational dimensions that must be considered, the following technical threats are identified. I Maritime ❏ Availability of far-reaching reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (RSTA) information will make it increasingly difficult for Marines to transit the seas undetected and untargeted. ❏ Shallow and restricted waters and adjacent areas provide an arena for mobile and static coastal defense guns, rockets, missiles, and mines. Most will have improved lethality because of advances in sensor, propulsion, stealth, digital computer, explo- sives, or fusing technologies. I Firepower ❏ Artillery will be more self-contained and mobile with much-improved complementary RSTA capabilities. ❏ Land-based artillery, missiles, and rockets will continue to outrange naval guns, and will be capable of delivering conventional high explosives, dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, weapons of mass destruction, mines, and/or precision-guided munitions (PGMs). ❏ PGMs will be deployed widely using an array of guidance systems that will allow increased engagement ranges and accuracy. ❏ Advances in laser and power technologies will transform today's sensor-blinder into a hard-kill weapon. I Maneuver ❏ A wide variety of ground weapons ranging from small arms to exotic or high-end sys- tems, namely non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) or laser devices, highlighted with interjections of innovative or improvised systems, such as volumetric weapons or improvised explosive devices. ❏ Natural and man-made obstacles, urban infrastructure, harsh climates, and increased combat capabilities of conventional forces may complicate the execution of expedi- tionary operations. I Air ❏ Sophisticated surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and modern integrated air defense net- works will proliferate. SAM guidance systems will be increasingly difficult to jam or evade, and will use nontraditional portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. ❏ Many systems will be capable of simultaneously employing radar, optical, and thermal target detection and tracking sensors that will be difficult to detect and counter. Advanced or improved aircraft, many with low radar signatures, will also proliferate. ❏ Unconventional uses of older types of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) by irregular forces remain a key concern. Lasers capable of shooting down aircraft have already been fielded by some nations. I Information superiority ❏ Stealth technology and camouflage, concealment, and deception techniques will be maximized to hide potential targets and/or protect tactical movements. v UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ❏ Key military facilities and
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Hospital Ships in the War on Terror Richard J
    Naval War College Review Volume 58 Article 6 Number 1 Winter 2005 Hospital Ships in the War on Terror Richard J. Grunawalt Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Grunawalt, Richard J. (2005) "Hospital Ships in the War on Terror," Naval War College Review: Vol. 58 : No. 1 , Article 6. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol58/iss1/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Grunawalt: Hospital Ships in the War on Terror Professor Grunawalt, professor emeritus of the Naval War College, is the former director of the Oceans Law and Policy Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies. His publications include (with John E. King and Ronald S. McClain) Protection of the Environ- ment during Armed Conflict (1996) and Targeting Enemy Merchant Shipping (1993)—volumes 69 and 65 of the Naval War College International Law Studies Series. Naval War College Review, Winter 2005, Vol. 58, No. 1 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2005 1 Naval War College Review, Vol. 58 [2005], No. 1, Art. 6 HOSPITAL SHIPS IN THE WAR ON TERROR Sanctuaries or Targets? Richard J. Grunawalt mployment of military hospital ships in support of the war on terror is mili- Etarily, politically, and morally appropriate.
    [Show full text]
  • The Counterinsurgency Campaign of the Nigerian Army: the Fight
    The Counterinsurgency Campaign of the Nigerian Army: The Fight against the Boko-Haram Insurgency in North-East Nigeria, 1999-2017 Gilbert La’ankwap Yalmi Department of Politics and Contemporary History School of Arts and Media, University of Salford, Manchester, UK Supervisors Dr Samantha Newbery Professor Searle Alaric Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................... i List of Figures ...................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements.............................................................................................. v Dedication ........................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations ....................................................................................................vii Abstract ................................................................................................................ x INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 Gaps in the Literature and Opportunities for New Research ............................ 2 Statement of the Problem ................................................................................... 7 Objective and Significance ...............................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Conventional Missile Attacks Against Aircraft on Airfields and Aircraft Carriers
    MEMORANDUM RM-4718-PR AIR FORCE DECLASSIFICATION OFFICE Classification Re'ained__--------------- —.„. J A N U A R Y 1966 Classification Changed To: jp / Q l No Classified AF Equities \J --------—- Refer To:___________ Reviewers Declassified from SECRET by the Air Force Declassification Office on 23 Oct 2018 CONVENTIONAL MISSILE ATTACKS AGAINST AIRCRAFT ON AIRFIELDS AND AIRCRAFT CARRIERS J. G. H a m m e r an d W . R. E ls w ic k PREPARED FOR: UNITED STATES AIR FORCE PROJECT RAND 7 ¿ e RJMD(fyyfotatca# SANTA MONICA • CALIFORNIA MEMORANDUM RM -4718-PR JANUARY 1966 CONVENTIONAL MISSILE ATTACKS AGAINST AIRCRAFT ON AIRFIELDS AND AIRCRAFT CARRIERS J. G. H a m m e r an d W . R. E ls w ic k This research is sponsored by the United States Air Force under Project RAND—Con­ tract No. AF 49(638)-1700—monitored by the Directorate of Operational Requirements and Development Plans, Deputy Chief of Staff, Research and Development. Hq USAF. Views or conclusions contained in this Memorandum should not be interpreted as representing the official opinion or policy of the United States Air Force. ■7& IUIIII) 1700 S r • Sant O N I C A l l F o R • 90406 -11- Published by The Rand Corporltion — i i i — PREFACE This Memorandum considers the possibilities of specialized non­ nuclear b a llis tic missile attacks against U.S. airpower based on South Vietnam a irfield s and on board aircraft carriers operating in the vicin ity of the Gulf of Tonkin. The subject should be of interest to those concerned with non­ nuclear weapon systems and their role in limited war situations.
    [Show full text]
  • Hardening Soft Targets
    New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 14 Policy in Action Piece Hardening Soft Targets Daniel Henne University of Delaware Terrorism was once a scattered, intermittent concern for the global community. It is now an everyday security problem that primarily affects large urban centers that have not been secured. Proper risk assessment, intelligence collection, public awareness, organizational collaboration, and improvements in technology are key areas and points that need to be emphasized in terrorism prevention. When it comes to implementing effective counterterrorism practices, places such as New York City have made strides. The city’s ability to prevent attacks can be contributed to their extensive use of surveillance systems, as well as their robust information- sharing and collaborative abilities. This paper assesses the major findings in counterterrorism literature and in practice, providing examples of advances that New York City has utilized in order to keep people safe from terrorist attacks. Policy Problem and Historical Context keep counterterrorism and soft target hardening Terrorist attacks and their effects on at the forefront of their public safety concerns. people throughout the world have been a In addition to this analysis, the following paper protracted concern for the past twenty years. will recommend improvements that can be Although the methods in which these types of made to bolster practices and procedures in attacks have varied, a vast majority of them developing better public safety standards and have occurred in places that can be defined as outcomes. soft targets (French, 2015). Soft targets are locations that are accessible to large numbers of Terrorism and Soft Targets people and that have limited security or There is no universally accepted definition protection methods in case of an emergency.
    [Show full text]
  • Soft Targets Are Easy Terror Targets: Increased Frequency of Attacks, Practical Preparation, and Prevention
    Forensic Research & Criminology International Journal Research Article Open Access Soft targets are easy terror targets: increased frequency of attacks, practical preparation, and prevention Abstract Volume 3 Issue 2 - 2016 This article illustrates the vulnerability and the increased frequency of soft targets attacked Richard H Martin by terrorists. The article includes some of the latest soft target incidents conducted by Department of Leadership Studies, Mercer University, USA Islamic extremist terrorists. The frequency of attacks on soft targets is expected to continue increasing, especially in the United States. The article also provides a plan for various soft Correspondence: Richard H Martin, Homeland Security and targets to prepare a defense against such terror incidents. Soft targets are easy targets, so Emergency Management Program, Department of Leadership terrorists are dedicated to continue attacking these vulnerable entities. Soft targets include Studies, Mercer University, Macon, Georgia, USA, Tel 419/348- hospitals, restaurants, nightclubs, super markets, schools, sports venues, churches, malls, 4201, Email and areas where large numbers of people gather. Target hardening simply by adding security personnel is a key strategy to reduce vulnerability of soft targets. Received: September 28, 2016 | Published: November 21, 2016 Keywords: soft targets, lone wolf terrorists, islamic extremists, plans to defend, target hardening Introduction & Kappelar,6 illustrated that soft targets are those civilian in nature that have very little protection and are vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The definition of a soft target varies somewhat, but all definitions The vulnerable soft targets include critical infrastructure facilities of indicate the targets are soft and easy to attack. According to the water, energy, transportation, airlines, and hotels.
    [Show full text]
  • Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development: Criminalizing Support for Non-Designated Charities
    Blocking Faith, Freezing Charity CHILLING MUSLIM CHARITABLE GIVING in the “WAR ON TERRORISM FINANCING” Blocking Faith, Freezing Charity: Chilling Muslim Charitable Giving in the “War on Terrorism Financing” PUBLISHED: June 2009 FRONT COVER PHOTOGRAPH: Alex Wong/Getty Images Members of a Muslim congregation in Virginia give Zakat donations for the needy before they enter a mosque for a service to mark the conclusion of the holy month of Ramadan, the height of annual Muslim charitable giving. Zakat is one of the core “five pillars” of Islam and a religious obligation for all observant Muslims. BACK COVER PHOTOGRAPHS: LEFT: Brandon Dill/Memphis Commercial Appeal RIGHT: LIFE for Relief and Development THE AMERICAN CIVIL LIBERTIES UNION is the nation’s premier guardian of liberty, working daily in courts, legislatures and communities to defend and preserve the individual rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution, the laws and treaties of the United States. OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS Susan N. Herman, President Anthony D. Romero, Executive Director Richard Zacks, Treasurer ACLU NATIONAL OFFICE 125 Broad Street, 18th Fl. New York, NY 10004-2400 (212) 549-2500 www.aclu.org Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 7 a. Introduction .............................................................................................................................7 b. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................9
    [Show full text]
  • A Study of ISIS, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and the US Policy Response Luke Phillips University of Mississippi
    University of Mississippi eGrove Honors College (Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors Theses Honors College) 2017 The uturF e of ISIS and US Counterterrorism: A Study of ISIS, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and the US Policy Response Luke Phillips University of Mississippi. Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College Follow this and additional works at: https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis Part of the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons Recommended Citation Phillips, Luke, "The uturF e of ISIS and US Counterterrorism: A Study of ISIS, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and the US Policy Response" (2017). Honors Theses. 597. https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis/597 This Undergraduate Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors College (Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College) at eGrove. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of eGrove. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE FUTURE OF ISIS AND US COUNTERTERRORISM: A STUDY OF ISIS, BOKO HARAM, AL-SHABAAB, AND THE US POLICY RESPONSE by Luke Phillips A thesis submitted to the faculty of The University of Mississippi in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College. Oxford May 2017 Approved by ________________________________ Advisor: Dr. Weixing Chen ________________________________ Reader: Dr. David Bath ________________________________ Reader: Dr. Joshua First © 2017 Luke Phillips ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2 ABSTRACT This study is comprised of two parts. Part 1 focuses on ISIS, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab, examining the structures, tactics, and motivations of the groups. Each group seeks territory in its respective region. After losing territories, Boko Haram and Al- Shabaab both turned to guerilla attacks and suicide bombing, destabilizing the areas formerly under their control.
    [Show full text]
  • China in U.S. Nuclear War Planning
    CHAPTER 3 China in U.S. Nuclear War Planning China has been a target for U.S. nuclear forces beginning soon after the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. During the Korean War, after Chinese forces entered the conflict in October 1950, President Harry Truman considered using nuclear weapons against China, and even deployed nuclear-capable B-29 bombers and nine non-nuclear components to Guam in 1951 to be within range of key targets. President Dwight D. Eisenhower had his own series of crises with China in 1954 and 55 and in 1958 in the Taiwan Strait area, and the United States contemplated using nuclear weapons. These actions surely spurred Mao to decide to build a bomb. Until 1960, however, nuclear war planning against China was mainly an ad hoc, contingency-based effort. Throughout the late-1950s regional commanders sought to incorporate many of their new nuclear weapon systems into a growing number of contingency plans. Beginning in 1960 the Pentagon attempted to assemble the various strike plans under a coordinated execution planning system so as to avoid duplication. The result was the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP). The first SIOP, dated December 1960, contained only one “plan,” under which the United States would launch all of its strategic nuclear delivery vehicles immediately upon the initiation of general war with the Soviet Union. Although the Soviet Union was the main focus, the single target list also included Chinese and Soviet satellite state cities, as well as airfields and other military bases and facilities within or on the outskirts of these cities.
    [Show full text]
  • Defining Law Enforcement's Role in Protecting American Agriculture
    The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: Defining Law Enforcement’s Role in Protecting American Agriculture from Agroterrorism Author(s): Terry Knowles, James Lane, Dr. Gary Bayens, Dr. Nevil Speer, Dr. Jerry Jaax , Dr. David Carter, Dr. Andra Bannister Document No.: 212280 Date Received: December 2005 Award Number: 2003-IJ-CX-1024 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally- funded grant final report available electronically in addition to traditional paper copies. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. NIJ Research Report Defining Law Enforcement’s Role in Protecting American Agriculture from Agroterrorism Prepared for: National Institute of Justice Washington, D.C. 30 June 2005 Researched and Written by: Terry Knowles Kansas Bureau of Investigation James Lane Ford County Sheriff’s Office Dr. Gary Bayens Washburn University Dr. Nevil Speer Western Kentucky University Dr. Jerry Jaax Kansas State University Dr. David Carter Michigan State University Dr. Andra Bannister Wichita State University Dr. Sandra L. Woerle NIJ Research Project Manager This research project was supported by Grant No. 2003-IJ-CX-1024 awarded by the National Institute of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Points of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Strategic Framework for Countering Terrorism and Targeted Violence
    DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR COUNTERING TERRORISM AND TARGETED VIOLENCE SEPTEMBER 2019 The U.S. Department of Homeland Security was created in the wake of the devastating 9/11 attacks, and charged with coordinating and unifying the Nation’s homeland security efforts. Today, just past the eighteenth anniversary of those horrible events, the country confronts an evolving challenge of terrorism and targeted violence. While the threat posed by foreign terrorist organizations remains a priority for the Department, and for the Nation as a whole, we have made great progress in our ability to detect, prevent, protect against, and mitigate the threats that these groups pose. At the same time, we face a growing threat from domestic terrorism and other threats originating at home, including the mass attacks that have too frequently struck our houses of worship, our schools, our workplaces, our festivals, and our shopping spaces. I am proud to introduce DHS’s new Strategic Framework for Countering Terrorism and Targeted Violence, which explains how we Kevin McAleenan will use the tools and expertise that have protected and strengthened the country Secretary of Homeland Security from foreign terrorist organizations to address the evolving challenges of today. It is important to appreciate the great progress that the Department has made since it was founded. DHS has adopted a multi-tiered approach to the lines of security we pursue, including aviation security and border security. By gaining the ability to recognize hostile actors long before they reach our borders, we have made our Nation’s borders not our first line of defense, but one of many.
    [Show full text]
  • Suicide Bombing Operations
    Issue No. 5 March 2007 Security & Terrorism Research Bulletin Suicide Bombing Operations During the last three years, the world has witnessed a notable upsurge in the number of suicide attacks, as well as in the geographical spread of this tactic. As the suicide bombers become more sophisticated and inventive in their tactics, the number of victims of suicide bombing attacks around the world has also increased significantly. Counter measures designed to combat suicide bombing have proven largely ineffective. This is now an acknow- ledged reality, and despite all national and international efforts, success in the field of preventive and preemptive measures has been limited. The research team at the Department of Security and Terrorism Studies at the GRC, which has produced this study, felt the need to analyze the suicide bombing phenomenon. As part of a Middle East-based think-tank, the researcher at the GRC is living and working within a regional environment that has become familiar with the terrible consequences of suicide operations. With this modest contribution, the researchers at the S&T department hope to add some knowledge that will help in understanding the suicide bombing phenomenon, and contribute to efforts of combating the same. Dr. Mustafa Alani Senior Advisor Director, Security and Terrorism Department Gulf Research Center w w w. g r c . a e TARGET THE GULF ������������������������������� �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������������������
    [Show full text]
  • TESTING the CLUB MODEL Eli Berman David D. Laitin Working
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES RELIGION, TERRORISM AND PUBLIC GOODS: TESTING THE CLUB MODEL Eli Berman David D. Laitin Working Paper 13725 http://www.nber.org/papers/w13725 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2008 We appreciate the comments of Mahmoud Al-Gamal, James Fearon, Laurence Iannaccone, Peter Katzenstein, Alan Krueger, Timur Kuran, Howard Rosenthal, Bradley Ruffle, and Berman's colleagues at Boston University, Rice University and the University of California San Diego, as well as the comments of participants in numerous conferences and seminars. Eva Meyersson Milgrom organized the Stanford suicide terrorism project. Her foresight spawned our collaboration. We also thank Barak Bouks, Liang Choon Wang and Lindsay Heger for research assistance. This project is supported by National Science Foundation grant #0214701 through the National Bureau of Economic Research. Mistakes are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2008 by Eli Berman and David D. Laitin. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model Eli Berman and David D. Laitin NBER Working Paper No. 13725 January 2008 JEL No. D2,D31,H41,H56,H68,J0,J13,O17,O24,Z12 ABSTRACT Can rational choice modeling explain why Hamas, Taliban, Hezbollah and other radical religious rebels are so lethal? The literature rejects theological explanations.
    [Show full text]