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Policy in Action Piece

Hardening Soft Targets

Daniel Henne University of Delaware

Terrorism was once a scattered, intermittent concern for the global community. It is now an everyday security problem that primarily affects large urban centers that have not been secured. Proper risk assessment, intelligence collection, public awareness, organizational collaboration, and improvements in technology are key areas and points that need to be emphasized in terrorism prevention. When it comes to implementing effective counterterrorism practices, places such as New York City have made strides. The city’s ability to prevent attacks can be contributed to their extensive use of surveillance systems, as well as their robust information- sharing and collaborative abilities. This paper assesses the major findings in counterterrorism literature and in practice, providing examples of advances that New York City has utilized in order to keep people safe from terrorist attacks.

Policy Problem and Historical Context keep counterterrorism and soft target hardening Terrorist attacks and their effects on at the forefront of their public safety concerns. people throughout the world have been a In addition to this analysis, the following paper protracted concern for the past twenty years. will recommend improvements that can be Although the methods in which these types of made to bolster practices and procedures in attacks have varied, a vast majority of them developing better public safety standards and have occurred in places that can be defined as outcomes. soft targets (French, 2015). Soft targets are locations that are accessible to large numbers of Terrorism and Soft Targets people and that have limited security or There is no universally accepted definition protection methods in case of an emergency. In for terrorism, but it is generally defined as: order to effectively keep soft targets as safe as attacks that inflict a sense of fear to further a possible from attacks, there must be a cause or political effort (“Terrorism - Our systematic aggregation of preparedness and World in Data,” 2018). The Global Terrorism prevention in place. Key points in soft target Database lists terrorism as, “the threatened or hardening and terrorism prevention include a actual use of illegal force and violence by a non- proper assessment of risk, the collection of state actor to attain a political, economic, intelligence, public awareness, organizational religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, collaboration, and improvements in technology. or intimidation" (“Terrorism - Our World in This paper will explore various practices that Data,” 2018). This is the definition that will be research has shown to be effective in reducing used in this paper because of the amount of incident risk while highlighting successes in examples referenced from the Global Terrorism New York City, a location that continues to Database. The prevalence of attacks has

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increased around the globe both in number and technology that prevents these attacks, terrorists variety over recent decades. Between 1969 and simultaneously find ways to evade such efforts. 2009, there were 38,345 instances of terrorism A concern is the growing tendency of around the world (Muhlhausen & McNeill, improvisation in terror attacks, which has made 2011), while in 2016 alone there were 13,488 access to destruction easier. Rather than seeing terrorist attacks (“Terrorism - Our World in complicated and coordinated attacks, attackers Data,” 2018). These numbers reinforce the idea are using vehicles, random explosives, and that it is a necessity for countries, governments, firearms in places where they can achieve large and even local cities to take action to deter these amounts of damage in small amounts of time attacks in any way possible. (Hesterman, 2014). One example of this is the As early as 1968, the Popular Front for increased use of improvised explosive devices, the Liberation of Palestine held Israeli or IEDs. These devices are easy to assemble passengers on board Israeli El Al Flight 426 to and can cause large amounts of damage when coerce the release of Arab prisoners detonated. In 2015, suicide bombings utilizing (“Terrorism - Our World in Data,” 2018). IEDs occurred in over 10% of member states Other examples of the use of terrorism with air within the United Nations, which is more than travel can be seen in the form of hijackings, had ever been recorded (UNODA, n.d.). While such as the September 11th, 2001 attacks, as well the locations of the attacks have varied, the as with the utilization of improvised explosive targets have maintained a focus on their present devices on airlines, like that of the attempted vulnerabilities. It is worth noting that both shoe bomber attack in December 2001 (“The attack methodology and use of IEDs have Ongoing Battle against Innovative Suicide resulted in an increase in attacks’ lethality Bombers,” 2016). In the wake of these attacks, (Gatekeeper Intelligent Security, 2018). Since security standards were heightened and the terrorism’s goal is to induce fear through the locations were forced to harden because of their use of physical and sometimes deadly force, clearly exposed vulnerabilities (Stewart, 2016). A these trends are highly relevant to the major concern regarding the location of attack prevention of attacks and further damage. targets is their occurrence in low security areas with a greater potential to harm more people. Research Air travel had initially been a frequent area of concentration for terror attacks. Attackers Assessing Risks and Coordinating Plans targeting softer targets, or locations where the Although there is a plethora of locations security is weaker, illustrates a systemic shift in that can be classified as soft targets, not all need attack methodology. The difficulty in adapting be the focus of intense hardening. Terrorist to this methodological change is that they organizations choose targets that not only have require a shift in resources. Many times, the a large amount of people, but also ones that money is not considered and there are not have high symbolic value. One example of this enough resources to staff the security needs or is from March 2004, when al-Qaeda claimed fund the protective practices that are vital to the responsibility for the bombing of four Madrid efforts of keeping vulnerable areas safe all over commuter trains which resulted in 191 deaths the world. and more than 1,800 injuries (Counter These shifting trends in attack Extremism Project, n.d.). Another example methodology must be recognized before would be the specific targeting of Chelsea, an addressing other research on the topic of soft affluent community in New York City that was targets. As mentioned above, there have been subjected to a bomb explosion in September consistent indications of the evolution of 2016. Al-Qaeda used an online propaganda terrorist attacks, from airplane hijackings to the journal to prompt its followers to not only use of improvised explosive devices. Even with attack crowded public areas, but also to target an improvement in the capabilities of the wealthy ones (“Inspire Guide,” 2016). In the

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journal, the terror group had identified strength of soft target organizations like Manhattan as the “administrative and economic shopping malls directly correlated with an center of New York” (“Inspire Guide,” 2016). increase in the frequency of information It went on to outline how the inhabitants of the sharing, as well as an increase in the degree of Chelsea neighborhood were notably from the rehearsal between these organizations and upper class, and therefore an attack there would emergency agencies. Furthermore, be more likely to harm someone of importance improvements in the training of security staff (“Inspire Guide,” 2016). These locations were and emergency responders is one of the most intentionally attacked based on the relevance important actions that a soft target organization they have to the citizens that use them, in can take to bolster their counter-terrorism respect to the train bombings, and those that preparations (Uddin & Hossain, 2011). reside there, in respect to the Chelsea bombings. Surveillance More standardized risk assessments are Surveillance is not only a method that is needed to improve the identification of employed to protect people from imminent potential targets as well as prepare the danger but is also used post-attack to research stakeholders that might be involved in a and evaluate what happened and, what can be response (Waugh, 2018). A study that was improved upon. Research suggests that with the conducted following an attack on the Westgate advancement of technology, the use of artificial Mall in Nairobi, Kenya demonstrated an intelligence (AI) is a growing area of example of when a proper risk assessment consideration in regard to surveillance. Since would have been beneficial, because the not every municipality and local government location can be related to many shopping malls has the assets or resources to frequently use around the world (Barrett, 2014). Barrett active surveillance, increased use of artificial explains how a risk assessment is necessary to intelligence systems may prove to be just as create an effective security plan, and how a effective. With implementation, agencies are planning team comprised of risk managers and able to focus their efforts on more areas of professional security personnel should create concern while using intelligent systems as a this security plan (2014). This planning team supplement to law enforcement and public must ensure that the necessary personnel are safety (La Vigne et al., 2011). These AI systems trained, evaluate the current physical security have capabilities to take in more information in facility, conduct threat assessments, implement more places while seeing more than an security plans, and make sure that plans are employee or officer can, and then analyze the being implemented and are effective (Barrett, information to alert the necessary officials 2014). Finally, Barrett insisted, the plan must (Slessor, 2018). One concern surrounding the align with a developed threat assessment. use of AI is the cost of implementation and Although some organizations may not have the setup; however, research shows that they can means to properly conduct such well-developed prove to be cost-effective over time. The New assessments, local law enforcements and York Police Department’s, NYPDs, Domain governments are often willing to share and Awareness System, DAS, is an example of cost- assist the organizations (Barrett, 2014). effectiveness. From its use, it has saved the Stepping back from risk assessments, NYPD and estimated $50 million per year simple coordination and information sharing are (Levine et al., 2017). Systems like the DAS can both essential in hardening of soft targets. A also be useful for other security purposes for 2011 study by Uddin and Hossain looked at the major sporting events such as the World Cup or network relationship between emergency the Summer Olympics. agencies and shopping malls in regards to their preparedness to coordinate during an emergency. It found that connectedness and the

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Community Engagement practices, paying for these advancements in Conducting various methods of prevention is methods is also a very important topic of critical because, as illustrated before, terrorism is research, such as surveillance and data a complex and prevalent issue. Crime collection. Some of the research discussed in prevention through environmental design, or prior sections suggested the need for extensive CPTED, is one possible method of terrorism funding, which is not feasible everywhere. One prevention. CPTED is a method that focuses study addressing funding limitations looks into on the reduction of conditions that can make an Greece’s expenditures on technology, area vulnerable. Some of the most common infrastructure, and capital equipment as a policy features of CPTED involve the presence of option for counterterrorism. It found that sufficient lighting, physical structures such as greater spending improves the capacity for fences or barriers, and camera usage. One study security forces to fight against terrorism, and found that CPTED encourages and strengthens was an overall effective measure for reducing territoriality and natural surveillance within the prevalence of terrorism (Kollias, Messis, communities. The study also related its findings Mylonidis, & Paleologou, 2009). The study also to the demographic diversity of the discusses how non-cost options such as neighborhoods in question (Reynald, 2011). The legislation are also effective when utilized in study looked into residents’ willingness, and conjunction with the spending on more so, ability to naturally survey their counterterrorism improvements (Kollias et al., community for crime related or abnormal 2009). These findings are extremely relevant occurrences, while also looking at the likelihood when it comes to considering the outcomes of of said residents to intervene if the opportunity organizations or countries looking to invest in arose. The study found that residents of low better technology as a method to prevent or crime communities were more willing to actively lessen the presence of terrorism. supervise their neighborhoods and also intervene directly in suspicious activity, while Intelligence the inverse was found to be true for high crime Intelligence plays a large role in the communities (Reynald, 2011). process of soft target hardening. While the In another study, the United States motives behind each attack may vary, terror Department of Homeland Security made attacks all share the characteristic of aiming to complementary findings pertaining to public kill and to send a message (“Terrorism – Our awareness of suspicious activity. In this study, World in Data,” 2018). When attempting to many people reported that they would be more prevent attacks from happening, it behooves likely to report suspicious activity if it were organizations to maintain relevant intelligence closer to home, mainly because of their ability on threatening terror groups in order to direct to differentiate between normal and abnormal their various preventive measures meaningfully. activity within their own communities (U.S. One article, with data from the National DHS, 2012). The study goes on to explain how Memorial Institute for the Prevention of the public’s awareness of suspicious activity is a Terrorism’s, MIPT, Terrorism Knowledge Base, critical asset in community safety. There should examined the factors that make a terrorist be campaigns and efforts being consistently organization more or less likely to attack (Asal made to improve ease of reporting from the et al., 2009). By looking at some of the public, while also educating community motivations of multiple terrorist organizations, members on what suspicious activity entails the study analyzed terrorist events that had (U.S. DHS, 2012). occurred to see which groups have the propensity to attack. Based on their findings, a Funding key determinant of an organization’s likelihood When examining the assortment of to attack is in the presence of a religious research that relates to counterterrorism ideology, as well as those that combined

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religious and ethno-nationalistic ideologies, Other technological advances have been which points to the idea of religion as a key made to thwart terror plots that are not as determinant. In addition, larger groups that mechanical as some of the other resources the have widespread influence and stronger NYPD deployed. The NYPD integrated the use networks were found to be more capable and of an advanced K9 unit into their likely to repeatedly attack a soft target (Asal et Counterterrorism Bureau (Parascandola, 2018). al., 2009). This is important when planning for The dogs serving in this unit go through an what surveillance measures might need to be extensive training program to detect and pursue taken in order to protect people from potential explosive threats in public spaces. organizations that have made it clear that they They are known as Vapor Wake Dogs and can are threats to the safety of others. pinpoint explosive material on a moving target in a crowded place (Dunn, 2018). This addition Practice supplements other surveillance practices and has become a great asset to active law Surveillance enforcement. There are many different organizations actively utilizing different technologies in their Coordination Planning surveillance methods. The NYPD is one of the As seen from the research related to largest police forces in the United States, with coordination and information sharing, approximately 36,000 officers (“New York coordination planning is notably one of the Police Department,” 2018), and their use of highest recommended methods to prevent technology in surveillance is significant. Many terrorism on all levels of government. The think of the use of surveillance cameras, NYPD currently uses a program called otherwise known as closed-circuit television SHIELD. This initiative seeks to improve cameras, CCTVs, as one of the main pieces of relations between the police department and technology used to accomplish surveillance. The others as a public-private partnership with a NYPD incorporates approximately 9,000 continuation of information sharing (NYPD, CCTVs that are owned and operated by a mix 2018b). SHIELD partners with security of public and private sector entities. By managers from the private sector with a strong integrating a subset of these cameras, gunshot understanding of industry specific safety and spotting technology, license plate readers, and security measures. As a result, the collaboration other logic-based rule sets within the NYPD, between these entities allows for a greater the police department developed a system that dissemination of responsibility and proper analyzes a constant influx of data. This is done information sharing. by taking observations in the community with Counterterrorism is critical to law the use of sensors, informational databases, enforcement and public safety, and thus the security or police software, and infrastructure, federal government has made efforts to assist and using it to deliver tailored information to and better coordinate a response for local and the police department. This system was state agencies. The Department of Homeland originally designed for counterterrorism, but Security is actively organizing and compiling due to its effectiveness, was able to be used for best practices and standards to be used for state, every police precinct in the city for both local, tribal, and territorial governments. counterterrorism and more typical law Additionally, collaboration and partnership enforcement purposes (Levine et al., 2017). This building is continually recommended for use system presents an extremely comprehensive between private and public organizations. These way to gather situational data and share it with practices, in conjunction with a major push enough value to affect decisions the police regarding the unity of effort, are changing the department makes every day. way that governments plan to handle issues and

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protect crowds and soft targets (U.S. DHS, Private and public partnerships are 2018). taken advantage of in cities such as New York, and it can be seen when it comes to access of Community Engagement CCTVs, or through information sharing The Department of Homeland Security is between organizations. Additionally, the use of an organization that, amongst many other artificial intelligence has started in systems such things, strives to enhance citizen and as the NYPD’s DAS, and is available for community preparedness (U.S. DHS, 2018). immediate use by that agency. When used as a The role that citizens play in assisting the supplement to policing, rather than a detection and prevention of terrorist attacks is replacement, AI systems allow for positive extremely important. Through the increased integration of conducting and implementing focus on integrating the public into the research in the places where it is used. The counterterrorism process in any way possible, NYPD and Microsoft have been working on programs such as “If You See Something Say selling their system, but not all governments or Something®,” have been utilized by the municipalities are able afford an investment of Department of Homeland Security to bridge the that scale, even though issues that the City of gap between civilians and law enforcement New York faces are often similar to every other agencies (2014). The programs, therefore, build major city in the world. Not every single city upon individuals’ capacities to report suspicious needs a developed system of this magnitude. In activity (“If you see something say something”, the same way that the NYPD uses video 2014). This program in particular was originally analytics with only a subset of the cameras they started in New York but has been adopted by have, the same could be said for an entire other organizations as well. The United States nation. It is vital that a thorough threat analysis Coast Guard has a public outreach program is conducted and specific needs are identified called “America’s Waterway Watch,” that looks before bringing in a system of that caliber. This to accomplish the same goal by urging people illustrates a need for continued research and that notice any suspicious activity to report it to development of protective programs and the proper authorities (2017). The Coast Guard software to heighten accessibility. makes it clear on their website who to contact The public has proven to be a and how to do so. This is another partnership tremendous asset when it comes to the that was set up through the Department of hardening of soft targets. CPTED and the use Homeland Security to improve coordination of public surveillance are extremely useful and boost public involvement in the towards prevention through reporting surveillance and reporting process. suspicious activity. Findings indicate a willingness of community members to partake Analysis in surveillance, which is helpful to law According to the Department of enforcement agencies. With public sentiment in Homeland Security, there are several areas that mind, agencies can bring in the appropriate and need further research. These areas include the necessary resources in specific areas, including, lack of a standing coordinating body of but not limited to: the use of CCTVs, better knowledge; the lack of a unified picture of the placement of patrol officers, and public department’s programs; the lack of affordability awareness campaigns. It further helps the and scalability for soft target security; and the government to understand the culture of a challenge of maintaining vigilance during the community and the public’s perceptions of their shift to new normal (U.S. DHS, 2018). Though own safety. the presence of these challenges allow for Asal et al.’s finding that terrorist greater vulnerabilities, the comparisons between organizations with religious ideologies have a research and practice prove that there are ways higher propensity to conduct terrorist attacks in which these gaps can be closed. (2009) has the potential to coincide with the

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highly controversial act of agencies profiling ensuring their citizens are safe in as many ways and surveying specific groups of individuals of as they can. Every attack that has ever occurred religious similarity (Joseph & Edelman, 2016). has caused suffering in the world, but by Profiling stigmatizes people rather than learning from them, we improve the fight behaviors, which can be inadvisable. Following against future treachery. There is a continued the September 11th attacks in 2001, there was an need for research to better understand our enormous focus on the Muslim and Arabic present threats, as well as a need to determine communities within the United States. Profiling the best methods of implementation so safety based on social connections and behavioral cues responses can be personalized and applied to in conjunction with racial descriptions is the communities, organizations, and individuals considered acceptable and a more reliable form that need it. of surveillance (Smith & Mason, 2016). It becomes an issue when law enforcement officers focus solely on racial descriptions References without considering the other two criteria. This Asal, V. H., Rethemeyer, R. K., Anderson, I., Stein, is why there must be a greater emphasis on the A., Rizzo, J., & Rozea, M. (2009). The Softest of education of community members on the Targets: A Study on Terrorist Target Selection. behaviors to be aware of, while also using law Journal of Applied Security Research, 4(3), 258–278. enforcement combined with surveillance https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610902929990 technologies to strengthen outcomes. This shift Barrett, J. F. (2014). Soft Targets Under Fire Recent in emphasis towards a whole community and terrorist attacks in Kenya and Algeria highlight outreach approach in emergency management the need for better physical security plans to practices will continue to prove beneficial in the protect vulnerable facilities. hardening of soft targets. Barrett, J. F. (2016). Risk Management – Soft Terrorist attacks come at a price that is Targets Under Fire: Attacks Highlight the Need more than just a monetary cost. The price of for Physical Security Plans. Risk Management, terrorism is also paid with the fear of future attacks and with human life, which makes 61(2), 18–22. investing in counterterrorism a necessity. Counter Extremism Project. (n.d.). Terror Targets in Although systems such as DAS have proven to the West: Where and Why. Retrieved from be expensive, their implications make these https://www.counterextremism.com/sites/defa investments exponentially worthwhile. Given ult/themes/bricktheme/pdfs/CEP_Terror_Tar that New York City alone was able to save $5 gets.pdf million per year with the use of DAS (Levine, Dunn, E. (2018, October 10). Vapor Wake Canines Tisch, Tasso, & Joy, 2017) shows how are the Best Defense Against Subway Attacks. investments in improved technology can pay for Retrieved November 26, 2018, from themselves in the long term. In addition to that, https://homeofvaporwake.com/vapor-wake- a study that was conducted by Kollias et al. canines-best-defense-against-subway-attacks/ further elaborated on spending as a valuable Fennelly, L. (2016). Effective Physical Security (5th ed.). method to reducing the number of terrorist Elsevier Science & Technology. attacks (2009). Between these two studies, it is French, G. (2015, June 5). Terrorist attacks: Don’t apparent that effective investment in be a soft target. Retrieved December 1, 2018, counterterrorism should never be considered from wasted funding. https://www.policeone.com/international/artic

les/6261724-Terrorist-attacks-Dont-be-a-soft- Conclusion The threat of terror is ever-present in target/ our world, and it has not gone unnoticed. Gatekeeper Intelligent Security. (2018, April 6). 3 Countries everywhere have shown advances in Trends in Global Terrorism That We Must

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