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Polity in Transition India After the 2004 General Elections Special articles Polity in Transition India after the 2004 General Elections The general elections of May 2004 in India saw the ousting of the National Democratic Alliance and the victory of a Congress-led coalition. Though Indian politics has since undergone a significant shift, with the Congress entering into power-sharing arrangements with smaller formations, an unusual situation at the apex finds corollary shifts in the base of the body politic. The ascendancy of ‘regional’ parties and the increasing electoral clout of marginal groups have been major developments. How these forces will govern in an era of economic reform will influence India’s future. Political and institutional challenges will continue to matter, but whether or not the Nehru-Gandhi clan can restore the fortunes of their party is still unclear. It will also be worth watching how the opposition re-groups and how far the ruling coalition resolves internal contradictions. MAHESH RANGARAJAN ew electoral outcomes have been as stunning as the victory most powerful office in the world’s most populous democracy. of a Congress-led coalition in the polls, called some weeks Personal origin had ceased to matter except to her most deter- Fin advance held in May 2004 in India. As it appears, the mined adversaries. Even turning down the office enhanced her wheel has turned but come to halt at the same place. As with prestige as someone who could have had power but chose instead Indira Gandhi in 1971 and Rajiv in 1984, a member of the Nehru to renounce it. The new prime minister has take care to evoke family still holds the key to power in New Delhi. A younger her name at every turn. For the first time in India’s history and scion of the family, Rahul Gandhi also made his entry to the unusually for any democracy, the head of a party is seen as far Lok Sabha. His position is similar to that of his father, Rajiv more influential than the head of government. There is little and earlier his uncle, Sanjay when Indira Gandhi was prime doubt that in the eyes of the rank and file, Sonia has succeeded minister. There were also similarities with political rhetoric of to the mantle of familial power. But over a dozen political parties the past. Indira had coasted back to power in 1971 with the slogan, in India already have clan relationships at the centre of their ‘garibi hatao’, or ‘banish poverty’. Sonia Gandhi countered the power structure [Malhotra 2002]. But no family has been ‘foreigner’ tag with the promise that her party stood for the as intertwined with India’s history as the Nehru-Gandhis. Con- common citizen. gress governments have governed India for 40 of 57 years: for What is significant is the sheer length of time it took Sonia all but seven years a member of this one family has led Gandhi to enter the political arena. By contrast Indira Gandhi the government. became Congress president in 1957 when Nehru had been prime Yet appearances can be misleading. Congress has 145 MPs minister for a decade. In 1991, Sonia had been first choice of in a house of 543, just eight seats ahead of its rival, the Bharatiya the Congress working committee but she declined the post. She Janata Party (BJP). As Yogendra Yadav observes, the Con- only relented seven years later when the party was faced with gress’ was actually a victory by default. Its allies scored much serious decline. In 1999, following the collapse of the Vajpayee more impressive gains.2 Sonia Gandhi’s scorecard must be placed government, she faced a serious attack on her leadership cre- in perspective. In 1971, Indira Gandhi led the party to a win in dentials on account of her foreign origin. Sharad Pawar, a veteran over 350-seats in a house of 520. The polity is now too fragmented congressman and former leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha to allow any party to claim a bare majority in the Lok Sabha. led the charge. The revolt underscored resistance to her candidacy The long era of Congress dominance is a thing of the past. Even among the upper and middle strata of the electorate. Sonia chose its share of the popular vote marginally declined in the 13th to play on her identity of a daughter-in-law, and while it is unclear general elections, and remains at a lower level than in 1996. if this was the chief cause, there has been a perceptible return Dominance is more elusive if one looks across the many to the older pattern, when the Congress had a clear lead among regions of a vast polity. Generalisations are dangerous given women voters.1 Criticism of her patriotic credentials on the the heterogeneity of cultures. Both Congress and BJP are now ground that she was an Italian-born Roman Catholic by the BJP marginal in the Gangetic basin states. Few governments have and its fraternal organisations helped her to reach out to religious ruled India without securing control of Uttar Pradesh: minorities. In 1999 she had led her party to second place in Narasimha Rao (1991-96) and Vajpayee (1999-2004) were among national politics; five years later she was on the threshold of the the exceptions. Congress last won a state election in Tamil Nadu 3598 Economic and Political Weekly August 6, 2005 in 1962, when Jawaharlal Nehru was still prime minister. Moreover, a series of state-specific alliances enabled the Con- Congress has been out of power since 1977 in West Bengal and gress to break out of grand isolation. The long spell of the NDA since 1989-90 in UP and Bihar. The party has had to align with government opened up space for cooperation between Congress Sharad Pawar even in an old bastion, Maharashtra. In Gujarat, and the Left, so that even while not sharing power they could it has not won a state level election since1985. The allies who come to a working arrangement. Congress also changed its stance now share power came together for a simple reason. Divided towards parties like DMK, which it once accused of abetting Rajiv they would have fallen: united they just about held their ground. Gandhi’s assassins. The over-riding pattern is very clear. Congress has had to stoop There are important social similarities with the kind of support to conquer. In the process, it has paid a price: many regional base Indira Gandhi enjoyed in 1980 but also critical political satraps have got a share of power. contrasts in the way such support was obtained. Indira Gandhi The new era of coalition government under Congress leadership was portrayed as protector of underprivileged groups such as is a product of strategic weakness and tactical flexibility. This dalits, adivasis and Muslims. This time too Congress and its was clearest in Tamil Nadu. Since 1991, no one has ruled in New allies garnered well over half the vote of such communities, Delhi without a stable alliance that delivers the bulk of the seats who number 16, 8 and 13 per cent of the national electorate in the state. As the north has been fragmented, so the importance respectively. Two major dalit-led political formations groups of the south in general has grown. Dependence on a regional ally entered into pre-poll pacts, in Bihar and Maharashtra. A third, is a pattern in Tamil Nadu; each regional party allies with a the Bahujan Samaj Party was among the first to extend its support national party. Such deals are not new, having been pioneered once the results were declared. The revival of trust among the in 1971 when Indira Gandhi ceded the state of Tamil Nadu to religious minorities is of course closely related to the retrieval the regionalist DMK: the difference is that the Congress was then of support among the under-class groups. Their mistrust in the strong enough to hold onto power in New Delhi. wake of the Babri masjid demolition in 1992 was a major factor Nevertheless, the victory is impressive. Congress has worked in the Congress’ decline. The Sangh parivar’s strident campaign out agreements with some of the very forces that were once on Sonia’s foreign origins actually helped her reach out to implacably opposed to it. A tenuous set of alliances underpins excluded groups like women and lower castes.3 The Gujarat the present UPA government. Most prominently, the 61 member massacres of 2002 cemented the resolve of most though not all Left Front led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the anti-Hindutva and anti-sectarian formations to join forces. It also world’s most successful Marxist party in any democracy has helped reach out to the beneficiaries of affirmative action or extended support even though virtually all its MPs fought and positive discrimination since 1990 in north India, i e, the other defeated Congress candidates at the hustings. Unlike in 1969- backward classes. Here, the Congress’ own halting and evasive 71, when the Communist Party of India was a key ally of the record in championing their cause was over-shadowed by the Congress government but did not have a substantial base of its new alliances it crafted. It was also able to benefit from the own, this is no more the case. Indira Gandhi had jailed several widespread antipathy to the BJP-led alliance, seen as a city- leftist and regionalist leaders during the Emergency (1975-77). centred and upper-caste oriented formation by many such But now, prominent among those who backed Sonia Gandhi were voters.
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