The Localization of Caste Politics in Uttar Pradesh After Mandal and Mandir
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Institut d'études politiques de Paris ECOLE DOCTORALE DE SCIENCES PO Programme doctoral Science politique, mention Asie Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI) PhD in Political Science, specialization Asia The localization of caste politics in Uttar Pradesh after Mandal and Mandir Reconfiguration of identity politics and party-elite linkages Gilles Verniers Under the supervision of Christophe Jaffrelot, Directeur de recherche, CNRS-CERI Defended on December 16, 2016 Jury: Mrs Mukulika Banerjee, Associate Professor, London School of Economics and Political Science (rapporteure) Mr Christophe Jaffrelot, Directeur de recherche, CNRS-CERI Mr James Manor, emeritus Professor of Commonwealth studies and Senior Research fellow, Institute of Commonwealth Studies Mr Philip K. Oldenburg, Adjunct Associate Professor and Research Scholar, South Asia Institute, Columbia University Mrs Stéphanie Tawa Lama-Rewal, Directrice de recherche, CNRS-EHESS, CEIAS (rapporteure) Table of Contents List of Figures and Maps ................................................................................................................ 3 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 8 1.1. Statement of the problem ............................................................................................................... 9 1.2. Findings and main arguments ..................................................................................................... 14 1.3. Approaches to Elections Studies ................................................................................................. 19 Case studies and ecological analysis ............................................................................................................... 19 Survey and quantitative methods .................................................................................................................... 22 The anthropology of democracy ....................................................................................................................... 24 1.4. Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 27 1.5. Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 30 The early literature: party politics and the fragility of Congress’ dominance .............................. 31 Identities, parties’ recomposition and the study of agrarian change ............................................... 34 New research directions in the mid-1990s .................................................................................................. 37 The anthropological critique and contribution to the Uttar Pradesh politics literature ......... 46 The U.P. Literature in the 2000s: the triple tropes of violence, identity, and patronage. ........ 48 1.6. Overview of dissertation ............................................................................................................... 56 Part. I – Decoding Uttar Pradesh Politics .............................................................................. 59 2.1. The four phases of Uttar Pradesh’s party system: from dominance to fragmentation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 62 2.1.1. Congress domination and the rise of the opposition ................................................................... 63 2.1.2. Parting of alliances and parties’ recomposition in the 1980s ................................................. 74 2.1.3. Communal and Caste polarization and dysfunctional coalition politics in the 1990s .. 84 2.1.4. The limits of caste polarization: Post-identity politics? ............................................................. 92 2.2. Sub-regional trajectories ........................................................................................................... 100 2.2.1. Uttar Pradesh’s sub-regions ................................................................................................................ 101 Chapter 3. Electoral politics in Uttar Pradesh: The rules of the game ...................... 118 3.1. Have Uttar Pradesh elections become more competitive? ............................................. 119 3.1.1. Turnout in Uttar Pradesh elections, 1962-2012 ......................................................................... 121 3.1.2. Effective number of parties and candidates ................................................................................. 128 3.1.3. The disproportionality effect of the electoral system .............................................................. 132 3.1.4. Margins of victory .................................................................................................................................... 134 3.2. Political constraints ..................................................................................................................... 136 3.2.1. The role of Incumbency ......................................................................................................................... 137 3.2.2. The role of turncoats .............................................................................................................................. 152 3.2.3. Competition for the ticket: The long road to the election ...................................................... 155 3.2.4. The size of the stable political class ................................................................................................. 161 3.2.5. Political strongholds ............................................................................................................................... 163 3.3. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 169 Part. II The changing profile of Uttar Pradesh State Legislators ................................. 171 Chapter 4. The heterogeneisation of Uttar Pradesh’s political class ......................... 171 4.1. The Evolution of caste representation .................................................................................. 174 4.1.1. The four phases of caste group representation .......................................................................... 176 4.1.2. Uneven trajectories among the upper castes ............................................................................... 178 4.1.3. A stabilized OBC representation ........................................................................................................ 179 4.1.4. The steady rise of Muslims’ representation ................................................................................. 184 1 4.1.5. Have parties actually become inclusive? ....................................................................................... 191 4.1.6. Caste representation in cabinets: persistence of biases ......................................................... 197 4.2. Sub-regional variations .............................................................................................................. 203 4.2.1. Where the Savarnas have fallen ......................................................................................................... 204 4.2.2. Where the Savarnas have resisted .................................................................................................... 208 4.2.3. The West: Free-for all competition .................................................................................................. 211 4.2.4. Explaining variations .............................................................................................................................. 212 4.3. Beyond caste ................................................................................................................................... 214 4.3.1. Education ..................................................................................................................................................... 215 4.3.2. The problem of occupation .................................................................................................................. 216 4.4. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 222 Chapter 5. Who wields power? Local perspectives on Uttar Pradesh electoral politics ............................................................................................................................................. 224 5.1. The sources of political power ................................................................................................. 224 5.1.1. The case of Western U.P. ...................................................................................................................... 226 5.1.2. The case of Eastern U.P.: more continuities than change ........................................................