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BP Azerbaijan May 2006 BP Azerbaijan Interests 1998 - 2022 ACG Gross Production Novorossiysk Russia 1400 1200 k 1000 DWG Kaza hstan 800 Black Sea NREP 600 mbd Pipeline 400 Azeri Georgia PSC 200 Exploration 0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Turkey License Georgia WREP 3534 Tbilisi Pipeline Caspian Sea Exploration Supsa Turkmenistan Sangachal Terminal ACG Oil Production South Caucasus Baku BTC Pipeline Oil Pipeline Gas & Development Azerbaijan Shah Deniz Gas Development Turkey Erzurum Inam Exploration 1998 - 2022 Shah Deniz Gross Production Alov Exploration 400 350 300 250 Stage 2 Ceyhan 200 mbd 150 100 Stage 1 Iran 50 d. e 0 M a Se 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Syria 0 100 200 300 km Iraq ACG Early Oil Project First oil Nov 1997 2005 production - exported 140 mbd gross 2005 Lifting and transportation cost ~$1.60/bbl Total investment ~$2.2bn RUSSIA Chirag platform Northern Route Chirag platform Export Pipeline Novorossiysk NER Supsa GEORGIA Chirag Tbilisi WER Platform Oil Rocks AZERBAIJAN Baku ARMENIA Western Route Export Pipeline Sangachal Terminal Chirag-1 Platform Sangachal EOP terminal 2 Project Schedule 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ACG PSA First Oil Early Oil Project First Oil C&WP Start-up Central Azeri & C&WP First Oil WA First Oil EA West & East Azeri First Oil WA First Oil ACG Phase 3 Ceyhan Lifting BTC Shah Deniz PSA First Gas to Turkey Shah Deniz St1 Appraise Select Define Execute PSA signed / Sanction CVP gate Operation 6 5 4 Capex 3 2 1 ($billion) 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4000 Contractors 3500 Ex pats 3000 Nationals 2500 Manpower 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3 ACG Full Field Development • ACG reserves 5.4 bn bbl gross mbd ACG Gross Production Profile • Peak production > 1 mmbd gross 1200 • Capital cost ~$14 bn gross 1000 • Project start-up dates: 800 Phase 3 – Central Azeri Feb 2005 600 – West Azeri Dec 2005 400 – Gas injection 2Q 2006 Azeri – East Azeri 4Q 2006 200 Chirag – Phase 3 (DWG) 2Q 2008 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 4 Shah Deniz Reserves (Total) ~15 tcf of gas bscma Shah Deniz Stage 1 Gas Sales 9 BTC SPA ~600 mmbbl of condensate 8 Azerbaijan SPA 7 Georgia SPA Stage 1 peak production 8.5 bcma 6 Turkey SPA 5 Stg 1 Decline Sales Capex ~$4bn 4 3 Sanction 1Q2003 2 1 0 First gas Sept 2006 (to Turkey) 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 Current status : • Subsea pipeline comp: 1Q’06 •4th pre-drill well comp: 1Q’06 • TPG 500 installed: April ‘06 • Sangachal terminal gas in: 2Q’06 5 Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey Pipelines Project Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline South Caucasus Pipeline First tanker loading 2Q2006 First gas 3Q2006 Capacity 1 mmbd Ultimate Capacity 20 bcma BLACK SEA Length 1768 km Length 690 km Diameter 46/42/34” GEORGIA DiameterCASPIAN SEA 42” Gross Capex $3.9 bn BLACK Gross Capex $1.1bn SEA TBILISI CASPIAN SEA AZERBAIJAN BAKU TURKEY BAKU Sangachal Sangachal Erzurum Project Update • In Azerbaijan pipeline and facilities Project Update substantially complete and ready for gas in • Oil to PT4 in Turkey 2Q. • 8.5 million barrels in the line and • In Georgia, good progress on pipeline and ~1.9 million to go facilities and ready for gas 3Q. • Hydrotest completed across • Gas Sales still on track to commence at Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey end of 3Q. CEYHAN • Az/Geo handed over to Operations CEYHAN MEDITERRANEAN MEDITERRANEANSEA SEA Turkey Georgia Azerbaijan 3000m 2000m 1000m Sea Level 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 BTC Pipeline Route Profile (Distance in km) 6 Breadth of BTC MajorMajor EquipmentEquipment PipelinePipeline SupplySupply ConstructionConstruction EuropeEurope AZ/GEO/TUAZ/GEO/TU CommercialCommercial Engineering,Engineering, SiteSite OfficesOffices OfficeOffice ProcurementProcurement Az(4)/Geo(4)/Tu(7)Az(4)/Geo(4)/Tu(7) Japan && CommercialCommercial Japan Europe Europe ManagementManagement OfficesOffices LineLine PipePipe SupplySupply AZ/GEO/TUAZ/GEO/TU EuropeEurope LineLine PipePipe Major Equipment Major Equipment Local SupplySupply Supply CommercialCommercial Local Supply Resources OfficeOffice Resources FarFar EastEast North America FacilitiesFacilities North America FacilitiesFacilities WashingtonWashington ConstructionConstruction AzerbaijanAzerbaijan DesignDesign AZ/GEO/TUAZ/GEO/TU UAEUAE CoatingCoating MalaysiaMalaysia • Complex project to design and construct unlocking $20billion of investment in the Caspian. Project management team of 500, workforce of 22,000 • BTC to supply 1 million b/d of oil – 1.3% of world oil supplies. ACG’s 5.6 billion barrels of reserves are about ½% of world proven oil reserves 7 Pipelines around the BP Group 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Forties WREP Trans Alaska BTC -500 387 km 790 km 1280 km 1768 km Elevation (m) Elevation -1000 Colombia -1500 790 km -2000 -2500 -3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 DistanceDistance (km)(km) Trans Alaska Co lo mbia OCENS A BTC Ba ku to Ce yha n Ca s pia n WREP Trans Alpine Pipeline (TAL) Alg e ria IS G Fortie s S e a line a nd La ndline Mardi Gras Cleopatra Ma rd i Gra s 8 BTC – The Challenge • Pipeline crosses 1760km of widely differing terrain in 3 countries • Starts below sea level and reaches height of 2,800m as it crosses the Caucasus • Buried along the entire route • Avoids route sensitivities and natural hazards • Displaces no one 9 Avoiding the Bosporus • Oil volumes shipped through Bosphorus still increasing 2001 – 101 million tonnes (pipeline oil would have increased volume by 50%) • Oil tanker traffic increasing as a percentage of total transits through Bosphorus (2001) 10 Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Revenues Total Azerbaijan Government Receipts 25,000 2006 Azerbaijan revenue(@ $60$/bbl) $60/bbl • Tax $1.2bn $50/bbl 20,000 • Profit oil $1.1bn $40/bbl • Other $0.6bn $30/bbl • TOTAL $2.9bn $20/bbl 15,000 mod$m 10,000 2004 GDP: $8,522m 5,000 2004 State Budget: $1,507m 0 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Forecast State Revenues from ACG, BTC and SD Stage 1/SCP ~$40bn at $20/bbl ~$140bn at $40/bbl ~$230bn at $60/bbl ….including profit oil, tax, bonuses, SOCAR 11 Gas Supply - Europe in 2004 - 515 bcma Market Russian/Border Gas Price BCMA % - Total 2006 Total 515 Domestic 215 42% Russia 148 28% Norway 75 15% N.Africa 60 12% Other 20 4% $95/mcm average $230/mcm Russian $50/mcm Turkmen $260/mcm $120/mcm $110/mcm Atlantic LNG Azerbaijan $260/mcm Iran Middle East LNG 13 Potential Gas Supplies to Europe 2020 (800 bcma) Norway (84 tcf) 18% Russia (1700 tcf) 30% Bcm approx % of total Domestic 100 13% LNG Russia 215 27% Norway 115 14% 20-25% N Africa pipe 130 16% M East & Caspian 30 4% Domestic 10% LNG to balance ~20% Nethlnds 53 tcf UK 21 Total 800 5-10% N. African Iran 970 tcf Iraq 110 15% Algeria 160 tcf Qatar 910 Libya 53 Existing Flows 4th Corridor requirement LNG • Russia Projects: Europol Expansion, NEGP, Bluestream Expansion • Numerous Regas terminals under appraisal/consideration – not all will go ahead • New supply source from North Africa and Middle East • Caspian Gas potential to Europe. 14 Messages • BTC opens up non-OPEC, non-Middle East oil and gas to Western markets, will supply 25% of world oil demand growth 2006-2007 and is setting new standards, maintaining transparency, and ensuring benefits at local, national and international level • The project was made possible by aligning business needs with the aspirations of regional governments with strong US backing • Significant future potential exists in the region which could contribute materially to Europe’s energy needs in 2015+ • BTC expansion and development of gas supply to Europe will require Azerbaijan government capacity and desire • Azerbaijan future management of oil and gas revenues and democratic process will be essential for future sustainability of the country and will require ongoing support 16 Azeri West Azeri on production EA jacket launch Sangachal Terminal Central Azeri & C&WP 17 Shah Deniz Offshore Pipeline – beach pull TPG500 Sangachal Terminal on track Progress on SDX-04 appraisal 18 BTC Reinstatement Georgia 1st Oil into BTC Pump Station 3 in Turkey Ceyhan 19.
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