BP in Azerbaijan Baku September 2006 Cautionary Statement
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BP in Azerbaijan Baku September 2006 Cautionary statement Forward looking statements: This presentation and the associated slides and discussion contain forward- looking statements, particularly those regarding oil and gas prices; expected start-up of Thunderhorse; the timing of other projects and their contribution to expected production, their estimated reserves and production capacity; production; the expected movement of non-proven resources to proved reserves; divestments and their effect; capital expenditure; and cash flow. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including the timing of bringing new fields on stream; future levels of industry product supply; demand and pricing; operational problems; general economic conditions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; changes in public expectations and other changes in business conditions; the actions of competitors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. Cautionary Note to US Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as “resources” and “non-proven reserves”, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-6262, available from us at 1 St. James’s Square, London SW1Y 4PD. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330. September 2006 Introduction Fergus MacLeod Head of Investor Relations 1997 Baku Analyst Trip 1989 Access Agenda E & W Siberia Caspian Algeria GOM Vietnam Deepwater Nigeria Venezuela Yemen Venezuela Lombok Angola 1997 Baku Analyst Trip Current Environment Competition Increasing Challenge to BP – Access competition – Keep ahead of pack – New players – Play to strengths – Terms erosion – Exploration track record – Deepwater technology – Relationship management – Deepen existing positions – Broaden into new positions 1997 Baku Analyst Trip Production Profile mb/d 2500 2000 1500 Others 1000 500 BP 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 E&P Strategy Update Tony Hayward Chief Executive, Exploration & Production BP Azerbaijan organisation BP Azerbaijan President David Woodward / Bill Schrader* Commercial Director Chief of Staff Phil Home Erich Krumanocker Executive Assistant Georgia General Manager Kamala Husseynli Hugh McDowell Turkey E&P Director Djan Suphi Offshore Onshore Renewal VP Shah Deniz VP Major Projects VP Technical Director Operations VP Operations VP Paul Clyne Mike Skitmore Bruce Luberski Fereidoun Abbassian Neil McCleary Rashid Javanshir HR Director Zarina Zeynalova C&EA Director Clare Bebbington HSSE Director Gunther Newcombe Business Transformation Manager *David Woodward will be retiring from BP on 1 January 2007, Judith Luberski Bill Schrader will be effective in this role from 10 November 2006 Project start-ups 2005 2006 2007 2008 - 2009 2010 and beyond Valhall 9Cannonball Atlantis Thunder Horse Atlantis North Paz Flor 9Waterflood Temsah King Sub-sea Ursa Expansion Flank Egypt LNG T2 Kizomba C 9Mad Dog 9Redevelopment Pump Puma Browse Central Azeri BTC San Juan ACG Phase 3 Tubular Bells 9 9 Angel Io / Janz Clair In Amenas Coal Bed Methane Alaska Gas Australia LNG T5 Tangguh Phase 2 9 9 Greater Plutonio Kizomba B Wamsutter Tangguh Phase 1 Liberty Vietnam Phase 2 9 9 Kizomba A Ph 2 Trinidad LNG Dalia Saqqara Point Thomson Colombia Gas 9Train 4 Rosa East Azeri Dorado Western Regional Clair Ridge Rhum Red Mango Great White Development 9 Shah Deniz Skarv West Azeri North West Area Horn Mountain NW Angola LNG 9 Magnus Kovykta Export Mardi Gras Extension Development Mad Dog SW Ridge Block 18 West Mars South Rospan 9Pipeline Block 31 North Cashima North Rankin B Block 31 South Chacalaca Kizomba D Egypt LNG T1 Block 31 Central Shah Deniz Phase 2 Harding Gas Valhall Redevelopment Uvat (Demiansky Phase I) 9 on stream in development under appraisal Production to 2010 mmboe/d 5 Divestments closed in 4 2006 3 TNK-BP 2 New profit centres 1 Existing profit centres 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 Actual prices and Production portfolio at $40 BP projection for ‘06-’10 updated to reflect closed ’06 divestments Strategy – building profit centres AlaskaAlaska NorthNorth SeaSea RussiaRussia NorthNorth AmericaAmerica GasGas AzerbaijanAzerbaijan DeepwaterDeepwater EgyptEgypt GulfGulf ofof MexicoMexico NorthNorth TrinidadTrinidad AfricaAfrica AsiaAsia && TobagoTobago MiddleMiddle PacificPacific EastEast LatinLatin AmericaAmerica AngolaAngola Russia / Kazakhstan New Profit Centres Existing Profit Centres Resource growth & progression 2001- 2005 New Further discoveries appraisal, revisions 8.0 7.8 Start ‘01 End ‘05 Purchased Sold resources resources 25.9 12.5 Non-proved 4.4 40.7 9.1 15.2 2.7 Proved 1.9 18.3 41.1 59.0 6.7 Produced Totals in billion boe Proved UK SORP, non-proved BP data End 2005 resource by type Non-Proved Proved Conventional Oil Deepwater Oil Water Flood Viscous 41 bn boe 18 bn boe and Heavy Oil Conventional Gas LNG Gas Tight Gas Coal Bed Methane Between 2005 and 2010 11 bn boe of non-proved resources are expected to be Totals in billion boe moved to proved reserves Proved UK SORP, non-proved BP data The ultimate prize 200 bn boe oil bn boe and gas initially Produced in place 38 Proved Non-Proved 18 Currently unrecoverable hydrocarbon 41 Does not include exploration potential Summary • New Profit Centres have arrived − Major Projects underpin production growth through the end of the decade and beyond • Power of incumbent positions − Technology to unlock the resource base Building a New Profit Centre: Azerbaijan Andy Inglis Deputy Chief Executive, Exploration & Production Building a new profit centre: Azerbaijan • Resource base • Technology • Project delivery • Statecraft and diplomacy • Sustainability through mutuality Resource base: Azerbaijan ACG and Shah bn boe 0.4 Deniz Gross Produced Resource 6.1 Sanctioned Non-Proved Currently unrecoverable hydrocarbon 7.6 Source: BP data Technology Reserves pull-through Maximising revenue Capital efficiency Project delivery Azerbaijan Central Azeri - 2004 West Azeri - 2005 East Azeri – 2006 ACG3 - 2008 Angola G. Plutonio - 2007 Bk31 North – 2010+ Bk31 Central – 2010+ Bk31 South – 2010+ Bk18 West – 2010+ Trinidad Cannonball – 2006 Red Mango – 2007 Cashima – 2008 Chachalaca -2009 Egypt Train 1 Supply 2008 Train 2 Supply – Ph1 2010+ Train 2 Supply – Ph2 2010+ GoM Dorado 2008 Horn Mountain Mad Dog SW Ridge Atlantis North Flank NW 2008 2009 2010+ Statecraft and diplomacy Sustainability through mutuality Workforce capability Local content Capacity building Overview of Azerbaijan and BP’s presence Rashid Javanshir Vice President, Onshore Operations Geography UKRAINE KAZAKHSTAN M O L DO V A RUSSIA Odessa Constanta Black Sea Novorossiysk BULGARIA Caspian Sea us or ph Supsa os T B GEORGIA U R K Istanbul Baku ME A N R I M S E N T IA AZERBAIJAN A N TURKEY Ceyhan IRAN IRAQ Mediterranean Sea SYRIA 150 years of oil production Further Developments 1400 ACG 2010 (1200 mmb/d) 1200 Phase 3 online 2008 1000 Today D WG 800 Azeri online 2005 600 Historical peak 1941 (475 mmstb/d) Chirag online 1997 Oil rate (mbd) 400 Azeri 200 Chirag Future decline for other fields assumed 3% annual 0 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Azerbaijan’s oil history Oil wells in the vicinity of Baku pumping oil into reservoir lakes in 1880s. The Nobel Brothers' oil wells in Photo: Azerbaijan National Archives. Balakhani, a suburb of Baku. View of Oil Rocks c. 1950s 2006 Central Azeri platforms BP Azerbaijan assets Novorossiysk Russia Kazakhstan Black Sea NREPNREP PipelinePipeline Caspian Sea Georgia WREP Tbilisi WREP PipelinePipeline Supsa SangachalSangachal Turkmenistan TerminalTerminal ACG BTCBTC ACG OilOil ProductionProduction PipelinePipeline OilOil South South Baku && DevelopmentDevelopment CaucasusCaucasus PipelinePipeline GasGas Azerbaijan Erzurum Turkey InamInam ShahShah DenizDeniz ExplorationExploration GasGas DevelopmentDevelopment Ceyhan AlovAlov . Exploration ed Exploration M a Se Syria 0 100 200 300 km Iraq Iran BP Azerbaijan assets • Total gross investment of $25bn, with over $21bn spend to date • Peak production of over 1 million barrels per day and 840 mmcfd (8.7 bcma) gas from existing projects • Sangachal - the largest terminal outside of the Middle East (3 million barrels of storage) • BTC – One of the world’s longest pipelines at 1768km • Combined design capacity of Central, West and East Azeri platforms: − 1.1 million barrels / day oil − 1.2 billion cubic feet / day gas Resources and Renewal Paul Clyne Vice President, Renewal Resource base: Azerbaijan Gross oil / gas resource potential 9 8 7 3.1 Non-proved 6 5 Sanctioned (incl. produced) 4 Exploration (risked) 4.5 3 5.4 2 2.2 Resource potential Bn boe 1 1.1 0 ACG SD Exploration Source: