INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 30 July 2020
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INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 30 July 2020 Economic Data HIGHLIGHT Latest 2020F • Jul-20 Inflation Preview: Deflation in Sight 7-DRRR (%), eop 4.00 4.00 • Banking Industry - 15 banks to distribute Rp100tr guaranteed loans Inflation (YoY %) 1.96 2.52 • Ace Hardware: 2Q20 Short-Form Result: Expected but Below Consensus (ACES; US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,543 14,745 Rp1,740; Neutral; TP: Rp1,500) • Astra Agro Lestari: 2Q20 Results (AALI; Rp9,700; Non Rated) • Astra International: Weak Earnings Are Expected (ASII; Rp5,075; Buy; TP: Rp5,000) Stock Market Data (29 July 2020) • Bank BJB: 2Q20 Results & Analyst Meeting Takeaways (BJBR; Rp965; Buy; TP: Rp860) • Bank Jatim: 1H20 Results & Analyst Meeting Takeaways JCI Index 5,111.1 -0.04% • Bank Niaga 1H20 Results - Flat PPOP Growth, Rising CoC (BNGA; Rp780; Buy; TP: Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 6,789.1 Rp840) Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 5,922.4 • BTPN Syariah: 1H20 Results and Analyst Call Takeaways (BTPS; Rp3,430; Buy; TP: Rp3,200) • Bank Panin 1H20 Results: Loan Growth Continues Weak Trend (PNBN; Rp805; Buy; Market Data Summary* TP: Rp1,100) • Bekasi Fajar: 2Q20: Continued Core Loss (BEST; 125; Neutral; TP: Rp130) 2020F 2021F • Charoen Pokphand Indonesia 2Q20 Earnings: Better than Expectations (CPIN; Rp6,200; Buy; TP; Rp5,500) P/E (x) 20.2 14.6 • Erajaya Swasembada: 2Q20 Results: Above Expectations (ERAA; Rp1,450; Buy; TP: P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 Rp1,500) EV/EBITDA (x) 13.2 11.6 • Indocement 2Q20: Below Estimates due to Seasonality (INTP; Rp12,400; Buy; TP: Div. Yield (%) 3.3 2.5 Net Gearing (%) 25.5 22.6 Rp14,500) ROE (%) 10.2 13.5 • Indosat 2Q20 Earnings Call Summary (ISAT; Rp2,340; Buy; TP: Rp3,200) EPS Growth (%) -26.4 38.1 • Japfa Comfeed 2Q20: Muted Cost Saving Initiatives on Top of Higher Interest EBITDA Growth (%) -9.7 13.4 Expenses (JPFA; Rp1,105; Buy; TP: Rp1,100) Earnings Yield (%) 4.9 6.8 • Kalbe Farma: 2Q20 Short-Form Result - In-line (KLBF; Rp1,525; Buy; TP: Rp1,650) • Mayora Indah: 2Q20 Short-Form Result - Below (MYOR; Rp2,350; Buy; TP: Rp2,650) * Aggregate of 76 companies in MS research universe, • Siloam Hospital: 2Q20 Results and Earnings Call Takeaways (SILO; Rp4,550; Buy; TP: representing 63.6%of JCI’s market capitalization Rp7,150) • Surya Citra Media 2Q20 Results: Margin Held Up Despite Pressures (SCMA; Rp1,280; Buy; TP: Rp1,800) • Tower Bersama 2Q20 Results: Revenue & Profit Growth Accelerated (TBIG; Rp1,300; Buy; TP: Rp1,400) • Unilever Indonesia 2Q20 EPS: In-Line with Ours; Below Consensus (UNVR; Rp8,250; Buy; TP: Rp9,500) • United Tractors: Dragged Down by Weak Coal Price (UNTR; Rp21,500; Buy; TP: Rp22,500) • Vale Indonesia: Anticipate Stronger Earnings in 3Q20 (INCO; Rp3,400; Buy; TP: Rp3,500) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 35 Equity Research | 30 July 2020 ECONOMY Jul-20 Inflation Preview: Deflation in Sight Monthly deflation is likely. We forecast Jul-20 consumer price index (CPI) to deflate by -0.05% MoM, bringing the annual figure to ease further to 1.59% YoY from 1.96% last month. In general, the deflation reflects the low demand and supply normalization. Meanwhile, we forecast core inflation to remain subdued despite gold and education price increase. The data will be released on Monday (3-Aug). Inside the Jul-20 food basket. Based on our observation, the food group may have contributed -0.14 ppt to total monthly deflation, with onion and chicken as the main contributors (-0.12 ppt). We also notice decreasing sugar price (-0.04 ppt), owing to supply normalization after significant import in 2Q20 (108% YoY). Muted demand-pull inflation. On the core inflation, the figure may have trimmed to 2.10% YoY (vs. 2.26% in Jun-20) on the back of weak domestic demand, despite the seasonal academic year. The recently rising gold price, which we calculate to add 0.05 ppt contribution, is possibly to prevent core inflation from decelerating further. Manageable pressure in 2H20. All in all, inflation pressure will still be manageable in the second half. Specifically, the economic recovery path is viewed to be a gradual one (U-shaped or ”Nike-shaped”), spelling a modest consumption. Meanwhile, we do not see potential pressure on food supply, as the World Meteorological Organization suggests a very low El Nino probability at 10% for Jun-Nov 2020 period. At this moment, we are reviewing and planning to revise our initial 2.7% inflation forecast. INFLATION SUMMARY Jun-20 Jul-20 MS Forecast Market Consensus Headline inflation (%, YoY) 1.96 1.59 1.70 Headline inflation (%, MoM) 0.18 -0.05 0.02 Core inflation (%, YoY) 2.26 2.10 2.11 Sources: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate FOOD PRICES OBSERVATION IN JUL-20 THE GOLD PRICE INCREASED BY 5% MOM IN JUL-20, CONTRIBUTING 0.05 PPT TO CPI CHANGE BASED ON OUR ESTIMATION Jul-20 Commodity Contribution Gold Price MoM Inflation % MoM (ppt) 8.0% Rice -0.21 (0.01) Broiler chicken meat -4.38 (0.05) 6.0% Beef -0.04 (0.00) 4.0% Broiler chicken egg 3.64 0.02 2.0% Red onion -25.43 (0.07) Garlic -17.52 (0.03) 0.0% Red chili 8.43 0.03 -2.0% Chili pepper (Rawit) 2.86 0.00 Cooking oil -0.19 (0.00) -4.0% 19 20 18 19 18 19 19 20 18 19 20 19 20 - - - - - - - - - - - Sugar -7.04 (0.04) - - Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Sep Sep Nov Nov Mar Mar May May Total Food Group (0.14) Source: National Strategic Food Information Center (PIHPS), Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Bloomberg estimate (as of 28Jul20) Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) [email protected] Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) [email protected] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 35 Equity Research | 30 July 2020 SECTOR Banking Industry - 15 banks to distribute Rp100tr guaranteed loans The government has collaborated with 15 banks in the latest move to jumpstart the economy through working capital loans extension that are guaranteed by state companies. The government estimates Rp51tr of new working capital loans are needed to reopen the economy in the remaining five months of 2020 and Rp81tr in 2021. − The 15 banks are: Bank Central Asia, Bank Danamon Indonesia; Bank DBS Indonesia, Bank HSBC Indonesia, Bank ICBC Indonesia, Bank Maybank Indonesia, Bank Resona Perdania, Standard Chartered Bank, Bank UOB Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Tabungan Negara, Bank DKI, Bank MUFG. There is no detail on how much loans are allocated for each banks. − The banks will distribute Rp100tr working capital loans until 2021. − The loans are for non-MSME segments and non-SOE companies with loan size of between Rp10bn (USD 0.69m) to Rp1tr (USD 69m). − The loans are targeted for the export-oriented industries and/or labor intensive companies with >300 staffs. − At least 60% of the credit risk will be borne by state institutions: Lembaga Penjaminan Expor Impor and PT Penjamin Infrastruktur Indonesia. Up to 80% of credit risk will be borne by the two institutions if the loans are extended to the priority sectors: tourism related (hotel, restaurants), automotive, textile and textile products, footwear, electronics, wood processing, furniture. − The government pays 100% of the insurance premium for loans up to Rp300bn and 50% for loans between Rp300bn to Rp1tr. The source of funds are from the national economic recovery (PEN) budget. − Lending rate is expected at 7% pa. Comments: This move is aimed for banks to help the industry players to restart the business activities again after months of lockdown. The industry now looks at 4-5% loan growth for 2020 and have started extending loans again since June. While the expected loans to be restructured is set at 20-30%, around 18% has been done especially for the micro and SME segments. The government earlier placed Rp30tr funds in four state banks, which are required to triple the amount as their new loans and another Rp9.5tr to regional development banks, for them to extend new loans twice as much as the funds placement. Of the 15 banks for the new move, eight of them are listed banks. We keep our Overweight on the banking industry. Tjandra Lienandjaja (+6221 5296 9617) [email protected] CORPORATE Ace Hardware: 2Q20 Short-Form Result: Expected but Below Consensus (ACES; Rp1,740; Neutral; TP: Rp1,500) Overall earnings came below market forecast though the performance is well expected. Operating deleverage caused the weakness but working capital and product mix trends are encouraging. ACES is the most resilient fashion retailer in 2Q20 thus far. 2Q20 Revenue of Rp1.7tn (-19% YoY) came below estimates; overall 1H20 Revenue of Rp3.6tn (-8% YoY) met 51%/47% of our/consensus’ FY20 estimates. The performance is expected given ACES’ 1H20 SSSG of -8% YoY, store closure, and the slow-down of store expansion. The 2Q20 figure was dragged down primarily by Apr-May’20 numbers which was the lowest performance during PSBB, while SSSG recovery has materialized in Jun’20, where all stores were also opened. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 35 Equity Research | 30 July 2020 2Q20 EBIT of Rp141bn (-52% YoY) came below estimates; overall 1H20 EBIT of Rp408bn (-28% YoY) formed 54%/43% of our/consensus’ FY20 estimates. Gross profit margin improved 2.2ppt YoY to 49.2%, as product mix shifted to lifestyle and high-ticket items such as sports and kitchen utensils.