Countywide Strategic Transport Model Local Model Validation Report 24/10/2014 Document Control Sheet BPP 04 F8 Version 16; October 2013 Project: Countywide Strategic Transport Model Client: Buckinghamshire County Council Project No: B12798A2 Document title: Local Model Validation Report Ref. 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LMVRv4_Client Review.docx Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Model Description 3 2.1 Zone System 3 3 Data Summary 7 3.1 Model data sources 7 3.2 Highway network 7 3.3 Public Transport network 7 3.4 Highway and Public Transport travel demand 7 3.5 Highway assignment calibration and validation 9 3.6 Public transport assignment validation 10 4 Network Model Development 11 4.1 Highway Network 11 4.2 Public Transport Network 18 5 Demand Matrix Creation 35 5.1 Introduction 35 5.2 Demand Segmentation 35 5.3 Land Uses 36 5.4 Trip Ends 38 5.5 Trip Distribution and preparation of O-D matrices 40 5.6 Highway Matrix Calibration 41 5.7 Highway Matrix Estimation of Highway Matrices 45 6 Assignment 49 6.1 Highway Assignment 49 6.2 Public Transport Assignment 49 7 Highway Assignment calibration and validation 59 7.1 Calibration and validation criteria 59 7.2 Modelled flows validation results 62 7.3 Assignment results 72 8 Public Transport Validation 78 8.1 Validation criteria 78 8.2 Assignment results 79 List of Tables Table 2-A Model zone system by geographic area 6 Table 4-A Default values used in ICA 16 Table 4-B Network checks made without an assignment 17 Table 4-C Bus stop clustering examples 19 Table 4-D London Underground Headway Assumptions 26 Table 4-E London Underground Services 27 LMVRv4_Client Review.docx Table 4-F Zone Connector Typology 28 Table 4-G Distance Based Rail Fares 32 Table 4-H Distance Based London Underground Fares 33 Table 4-I Distance based bus fares 34 Table 5-A Purpose, user class and vehicle class relationships 36 Table 5-B Daily Trip Productions by purpose, mode and area, and Daily Trip Attractions by area 39 Table 5-C Peak hour factors for Buckinghamshire town centres 41 Table 5-D Average trip lengths (km) by purpose, mode and area type 42 Table 5-E Prior and post matrix estimation matrix totals 45 Table 5-F Benchmark Criteria for Matrix Estimation Changes 46 2 Table 5-G Slope and R summary of AM, IP and PM trip ends 46 Table 5-H Trip length distribution criteria for prior / post matrix estimation 47 Table 6-A Summary of Recommendations for PT Assignment Model Applicability 50 Table 6-B Impedance Parameters 51 Table 7-A Link flow criteria 59 Table 7-B AM, IP and PM Peak link flow validation Prior Matrix Estimation 60 Table 7-C AM, IP and PM Peak link flow validation Post Matrix Estimation 60 Table 7-D Screenline Flow criteria 60 Table 7-E Screenline Flow Difference 61 Table 7-F AM, IP and PM Peak Journey Time validation - Post Matrix Estimation 61 Table 7-G Difference between modelled and observed Car flows - AM Peak hour 63 Table 7-H Difference between modelled and observed HGV flows - AM Peak hour 64 Table 7-I Difference between modelled and observed LGV flows - AM Peak hour 65 Table 7-J Difference between modelled and observed Car flows - IP Peak hour 66 Table 7-K Difference between modelled and observed HGV flows - IP Peak hour 67 Table 7-L Difference between modelled and observed LGV flows - IP Peak hour 68 Table 7-M Difference between modelled and observed Car flows - PM Peak hour 69 Table 7-N Difference between modelled and observed HGV flows - PM Peak hour 70 Table 7-O Difference between modelled and observed LGV flows - PM Peak hour 71 Table 7-P Highway assignment in the AM peak hour in Year 2013 (veh/hour/direction) 72 Table 7-Q Highway assignment in the IP hour in Year 2013 (veh/hour/direction) 73 Table 7-R Highway assignment in the PM peak hour in Year 2013 (veh/hour/direction) 74 Table 7-S Level of congestion in the AM peak hour in Year 2013 (volume over capacity in %) 75 Table 7-T Level of congestion in the IP hour in Year 2013 (volume over capacity in %) 76 Table 7-U Level of congestion in the PM peak hour in Year 2013 (volume over capacity in %) 77 Table 8-A Modelled and Observed Station boarding and Alighting Comparison 79 LMVRv4_Client Review.docx List of Figures Figure 2-A Basis for the modelled zoning system 3 Figure 2-B Model zone system inside Buckinghamshire County 4 Figure 2-C Model zone system within the “Halo” area 5 Figure 2-D Model zones system of the external area 6 Figure 4-A Volume-Delay functions used in the Countywide model 13 Figure 4-B Excerpt showing observed areas of congestion 14 Figure 4-C Roundabout coding 15 Figure 4-D Line routes and time profile aggregation settings 20 Figure 4-E Bus services 21 Figure 4-F Rail network 23 Figure 4-G Buckinghamshire Rail Stations and Lines 24 Figure 4-H London Underground Services 25 Figure 4-I Metropolitan Line 26 Figure 4-J Aylesbury Rail Stations and Connectors 29 Figure 4-K Bus Connectivity 30 Figure 4-L London Underground Interchange Stations 31 Figure 6-A General Public Transport Assignment Settings 52 Figure 6-B Public Transport Assignment Setting - Basis 53 Figure 6-C Public Transport Assignment Setting - Search 54 Figure 6-D Public Transport Assignment setting - Preselection 55 Figure 6-E Public Transport Assignment Settings - Impedance 56 Figure 6-F Origin Wait Time Settings 57 Figure 6-G Choice Procedure Settings 57 Figure 8-A AM Peak Flows 80 Figure 8-B Public Transport assignment in the Inter Peak Hour (passenger/hr/direction) 81 Figure 8-C PM Peak Flows 82 Appendices Appendix A Zonal system of major towns in Buckinghamshire Appendix B Link types and parameters Appendix C Bus services Appendix D Rail services Appendix E Interchange Stations in Central London Appendix F Highway Traffic Flow Calibration Appendix G Journey Time Validation Appendix H Journey Time Routes Appendix I Scatter Plots of Matrix Trip Ends Appendix J Trip Length Distribution Appendix K Planning Data (2011-2013) LMVRv4_Client Review.docx 1 Introduction Buckinghamshire County Council (BCC) is refreshing its countywide investment programme for major capital projects to support delivery of the Economic Strategy for Buckinghamshire.