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Droughts in Angola 2012 - 2016 PDNA Post Disaster Needs Assessment ANGOLA DROUGHT Recognitions Overall coordination: Teresa Rocha, National Commission for Civil Protection – Government of Angola Photo Credits: Juan Aja, Jeannette Fernandez, Lisa Angeli, Federica Pilia Layout and design: Imprenta Activa, Mauricio Guerrón, 0998742013 Quito - Ecuador 2 Table of Contents Acronyms List of Figures List of Tables List of maps ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 Key Findings 10 Total Damage and Losses 13 Recovery Strategy 14 The Disaster Recovery Framework 16 The PDNA Methodology 17 INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT 19 The Socio-economic Context in Angola 19 The Context in Cunene, Huila and Namibe 21 DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN ANGOLA 26 Drought Timeline: 2011/12 – 2015/16 26 Rainfall Deficits 2011 to 2015 31 The Drought in 2015-16 32 Population Affected 33 SECTOR ANALYSIS 36 Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries 36 Food Security and Nutrition 46 Water and Sanitation 51 Education 56 The Environment 60 Social Impact 66 Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 75 Industry and Trade 81 The Macro-economic Impact 82 DROUGHT RESPONSE AND COORDINATION 87 Summary of Damage and Losses 88 Recovery Strategy 93 Recovery Needs 93 Vision and intended sectoral results 95 Implementation arrangements 98 Disaster Recovery Framework 99 THE PDNA Methodology 99 Limitations 100 Acronyms BBB Building Back Better BNA National Angolan Bank (Banco Nacional De Angola) CERF Central Emergency Response Fund CLTS Community Led Total Sanitation CNPC National Commission for Civil Protection (Comissão Nacional de Proteção Civil) DRR Disaster Risk Reduction OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, EM-DAT Belgium. EWCM Early Warning Crop Monitor FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FLDAS Fews Net Land Data Assimilation System FMD Foot And Mouth GAM Global Acute Malnutrition GDP Gross Domestic Product GoA Government of Angola HDI Human Development Index HHWTSS Household Water Treatment and Safe Storage INE National Institute Of Statistics (Instituto Nacional De Estatística) ITCZ Inter-Tropical Conversion Zone LDC Least Developed Country MAM Moderate Malnutrition MDG Millennium Development Goals MINAGRI Ministry of Agriculture NASA National Aeronautics And Space Administration NDP National Development Plan NDVI Rainfall Estimates And Vegetation NTFP Non Timber Forest Products OCHA Office For The Coordination Of Humanitarian Affairs PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PME School Lunch Program (Programa De Merenda Escolar) Therapeutic Program For Ambulatory Patients (Programa Terapêutico Para Pa- PTPA cientes Em Ambulatório) SADC Southern African Development Community SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition UEN Special Unit For Nutrition (Unidade Especial De Nutrição) UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund UNRCO United Nations Resident Coordinator Office WASH Water, Sanitation And Hygiene Sector WRSI Water Requirement Satisfaction Index List of Figures Fig. 1 Vegetation Performance in end of February 2012 – (Mid-season of 2011/2012) 27 Fig. 2 Vegetation Performance in end of February 2013 – (Mid-season of 2012/2013) 27 Fig. 3 Vegetation Performance in end of February 2014 – (Mid-season of 2013/2014) 27 Fig. 4 Vegetation Performance in end of February 2015 – (Mid-season of 2014/2015) 27 Fig. 5 Cumulative rainfall – November 2014 to January 2015 28 Fig. 6 Cumulative rainfall – February to April 2015 28 Fig. 7 Rainfall anomaly – November 2014 to January 2015 28 Fig. 8 Rainfall anomaly – February to April 2015 28 Fig. 9 Maximum Vegetation Index – November 2014 to January 2015 29 Fig. 10 Maximum Vegetation Index – February to April 2015 29 Fig. 11 Water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for maize 30 Fig. 12 Rainfall deficits between 2011/12 to 2015/16, compared to the long-term ave- 31 rage Fig. 13 Rainfall anomaly, dryness ranking and crop conditions as of March 2016 32 Fig. 14 Drought-affected population, by year and by province 33 Fig. 15 Angola crop calendar 37 Fig. 16 National production of maize, millet, sorghum, pulses and other key crops 38 Fig. 17 Agriculture sector annual % growth; and Agriculture value added (% of GDP) 39 Fig. 18 Production: actual vs. projection of maize, millet and sorghum; and Agricultu- 40 re GDP: projected vs. actual (AKZ millions) Fig. 19 Production of cereals, pulses and other crops in Cunene, Huila and Namibe 42 Fig. 20 Production gap in cereals, pulses and roots/tubers: projected versus actual 43 production in three provinces Fig. 21 Crop and livestock damage and losses in Cunene, Namibe and Huila 44 Fig. 22 Total crop and livestock damage and losses in all three provinces 44 Fig. 23 Malnutrition: admission cases and mortality in Cunene and Huila 49 Fig. 24 Number of nutrition centers in operation in the 3 provinces; and cases of SAM, 50 GAM and MAM in 2015. Fig. 25 Charcoal production 63 Fig. 26 Curoca river basin, Namibe 64 Fig. 27 Reports of domestic violence and family abandonment in Huila 71 Fig. 28 Work seekers vs. offer in the commercial sector; and employment seekers by 81 sex. Fig. 29 Comparative evolution of oil and non-oil GDP 82 Fig. 30 Distribution of damage and losses 89 Fig. 31 Government development plan for Cunene, Huila and Namibe 97 List of tables Table 1 demographics in Cunene, Huila and Namibe 22 Table 2 socio-economic characteristics in Cunene, Huila and Namibe 22 Table 3 livestock mortality by province 41 Table 4 total damage and losses, by province and subsector 45 Table 5 Price increases for staple food and basic commodities 48 Table 6 Damage to water and sanitation (USD millions) 53 Table 7 Food and Non-Food Items provided to the affected populations 54 Table 8 Summary of Damage, Losses and Needs in the WASH Sector 55 Table 9 Education in Cunene, Huila and Namibe 57 Table 10 well-being indicators for the three provinces 66 Table 11 Typology of coping strategies and cascading impacts 67 Table 12 Disaster Events in Angola (1981-2016) 75 Table 13 Impact on GDP (current prices, in million AKZ) 83 Table 14 Evolution of budget allocations to drought affected provinces. 84 Table 15 External trade balance 85 Table 16 total damage and losses in Cunene, Namibe and Huila 88 Table 17 Recovery needs in Cunene, Namibe and Huila, by sector (USD and AKZ) 94 List of boxes Box 1 Amount of food and number of meals diminished in 2015 68 Box 2 Young kids struggle to get water for consumption 69 Box 3 Child abandonment and migration increased as a result of household eco- 70 nomic stress Box 4 Women and their dependents enter in situations of extreme vulnerability to 72 droughts List of maps Map. 1 Livelihood Zones in Angola 23 Map 2 Provinces affected by drought in 2011-12 and 2013-14 34 Map 3 Farming systems in Angola 47 Map 4 Surface water availability per capita anomaly 52 Map 5 Transhumance livestock migrtion routes in southern region 62 Map 6 das reservas nacionais no 2010 e no 2015, após a ampliação das áreas de 64 conservação. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) was prepared under the overall leadership of the National Commission for Civil Protection (CNPC), with the support and general coordination of UNDP, the European Union and the World Bank. The PDNA exercise was undertaken by sector teams composed of representatives of the Gov- ernment of Angola, the United Nations, European Union and the World Bank. The following ministries and agencies participated in the PDNA: The National Commission for Civil Protec- tion (CNPC), the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINAGRI), Health (MINSA), Education (MINED), Ministry of Assistance and Social Inclusion (MINARS), the Service of Civil Protection and Firefighters (SPCB), the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Ministry of Energy and Water (MINERG), UNDP, FAO, OMS, WFP, UNFPA, UNICEF, OCHA, the European Union and the World Bank. The following sector team members provided technical support during the PDNA: Drought analysis: Raul Cumba (Sector Report Writer, WFP); Agriculture: Ermelinda Caliengue (Sector Leader, GoA), Juan Aja (Sector Report Writer, EU), Ricardo Zapata (Contributor, EU), Monica Trujillo (Reviewer, UNDP), Matthias Mollet (Peer Reviewer, FAO), Daniele Barelli (Peer Reviewer, FAO), Nelson Bernabe (Contributor, FAO), Matteo Tonini (Contributor, FAO); Nutrition: Joana Maria Manuel Admiro and Madalena Vandunem da Silva Rodrigues (Sector Report Writers GoA), Julia Nhacule (Sector Report Writer, UNICEF), Samson Agbo (Peer Reviewer, UNICEF); Water, Sanitation Jeannette Fernandez (Sector Report Writer, UNDP), Tomas Lopez de and Hygiene Bufala (Contributor, UNICEF); (WASH): Food Security: Raul Cumba (Sector Report Writer, WFP), Monica Trujillo (Reviewer and Co-Writer, UNDP); Social Impact: Francisco Marques (Sector Leader, GoA), Don Nelson (Sector Report Writer, UNDP) Health: Agostino Lutumba (Sector Leader GoA), Javier Aramburu (Sector Report Writer, OMS), Ma. Jose Costa (Sector Report Writer, OMS); Education: Pasi Kondambuta (Sector Leader GoA), Federica Pilia (Sector Report Writer, UNDP); Environment: Lisa Angeli (Sector Report Writer, UNDP, OCHA), Goetz Schroth (Peer Reviewer, UNDP); Marie-Claire Angwa (Contributor, UNDP) Industry and Trade: Ricardo Zapata (Sector Report Writer, EU); Gender and Social Luis Samacumbi (Contributor, UNFPA); Issues: Disaster Risk Jeannette Fernandez (Sector Report Writer, UNDP), Federica Pilia Reduction: (Sector Report Writer, UNDP), Keita Sugimoto (Contributor,
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