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An Air Force for an Era of Great Power Competition

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AN AIR FORCE FOR AN ERA OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION MARK GUNZINGER CARL REHBERG JACOB COHN TIMOTHY A. WALTON LUKAS AUTENRIED AN AIR FORCE FOR AN ERA OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION MARK GUNZINGER CARL REHBERG JACOB COHN TIMOTHY A. WALTON LUKAS AUTENRIED 2019 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mark Gunzinger is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Mr. Gunzinger has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Forces, Transformation and Resources. A retired Air Force Colonel and Command Pilot, he joined the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 2004 and was appointed to the Senior Executive Service and served as Principal Director of the Department’s central staff for the 2005–2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). He served as Director for Defense Transformation, Force Planning and Resources on the National Security Council staff. Mr. Gunzinger holds an M.S. in National Security Strategy from the National War College, a Master of Airpower Art and Science degree from the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, an M.P.A. from Central Michigan University, and a B.S. in Chemistry from the United States Air Force Academy. He is the recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service, the Defense Superior Service Medal, and the Legion of Merit. Carl Rehberg is a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Carl is a retired GS-15, Air Force Colonel and Command Pilot with over 6,200 hours flying time. Carl’s previous job was as Director of the Headquarters Air Force Asia-Pacific Cell, which played a pivotal role in the development of Air Force strategy, force development, planning, analysis and warfighting concepts supporting initiatives related to the Asia-Pacific and the DoD Third Offset Strategy. As Chief, Long-Range Plans of the Air Staff, Carl led the development of future force structure plans and courses of action for numerous Air Force and defense resource and tradespace analyses. In the late 1990s, he served in the Pentagon as a strategic planner, programmer, and analyst, leading several studies for the Secretary of Defense on the Total Force. He received a B.S. in Industrial Technology (Aviation Administration) from California State University; an M.A. in Political Science from the University of South Dakota; and a Ph.D. in Public Administration from the University of Colorado. He was also a National Security Fellow at Harvard University. Jacob Cohn is a Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. His research focuses on the intersection of strategy, operational concept development, and resources. He also focuses on the utilization of scenarios and wargames to facilitate the exploration of long- term competitions and force planning. Mr. Cohn has authored a number of publications on trends in the defense budget and defense acquisitions as well as case studies exploring the Second Nuclear Age and defending European frontline states. He contributes to print and broadcast media and is also an adjunct lecturer at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Timothy A. Walton is a Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Mr. Walton focuses his research and analysis on the development of new operational concepts, trends in future warfare, and Asia-Pacific security dynamics. Mr. Walton has authored a number of publications on Chinese military doctrine and capabilities, regional security dynamics, and U.S. force planning. Prior to joining CSBA, he was a principal of Alios Consulting Group and an Associate of Delex Systems. He has a Bachelor’s in International Politics with a concentration in Security Studies from the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and Master’s degree in Security Studies from the same institution. Lukas Autenried is an Analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. His work focuses on long-term military competitions, trends in future warfare, and defense budgeting and resourcing. Lukas came to CSBA after working as a Research Assistant in the Finance and Private Sector Development team at the World Bank, supporting research to improve financial access for households and firms. His previous experience also includes work in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs at the Department of State and the Woodrow Wilson Center. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank the CSBA staff for their assistance with this report. Special thanks go to Tom Mahnken and Evan Montgomery for their editing and advice, Harrison Schramm for his analytical support, Colonel (retired) Herbert Kemp, Ph.D., for his technical advice, Kyle Libby and Adam Lemon for their superb graphics, and to Kamilla Gunzinger for managing the publication of this report. The authors also thank all participants in CSBA’s workshops, wargame, Strategic Choices Exercise, and other activities supporting this analysis. The analysis and findings presented here are solely the responsibility of the authors. Cover: U.S. Air Force photos. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . I CSBA’s Study Methodology .................................................ii Report Organization .....................................................iii Key Insights on the Air Force’s Current Aircraft Inventory ........................... iv A Recommended Force Planning Construct for the Air Force ........................ vi Recommendations for the Future Aircraft Inventory ............................. viii Recommendations for the Air Force’s 2030 Aircraft Inventory ........................x AIR FORCE FORCE STRUCTURE AND RESOURCE TRENDS . 1 Overview of the Current Air Force ........................................... 1 The Enduring Impact of Post-Cold War Force Planning Assumptions ................... 8 U.S. Air Force Force Structure Trends ....................................... 11 Trends in Air Force Budget and Acquisition Funding ............................. 16 Summary ........................................................... 22 MAJOR STRATEGIC SHIFTS THAT SHOULD INFORM AIR FORCE PLANNING . 25 The Return of Great Power Competition. 25 Challenges to the U.S. Military’s Post-Cold War Concept for Conventional Warfare ....... 29 Threats to Future Air Force Operations ...................................... 36 Threats to the U.S. Homeland ............................................ 51 Illustrative Force Planning Implications for the Air Force .......................... 52 Summary ........................................................... 54 A CANDIDATE FORCE PLANNING CONSTRUCT FOR THE AIR FORCE . 55 A Recommended Force Planning Construct for the Air Force ....................... 57 Future Scenarios for Great Power Conflict . 59 Other Study Assumptions ................................................ 66 Summary ........................................................... 68 CONCEPTS AND CAPABILITIES FOR FUTURE AIR FORCE COUNTERAIR OPERATIONS. 69 Challenges to the U.S. Military’s Control of the Air . 70 Insights on Counterair Operations: Future Baltic Sea Region Conflict Scenario ......... 72 Insights on Counterair Operations: Future South China Sea Conflict Scenario .......... 77 Insights on Forces and Capabilities ........................................ 81 Summary ........................................................... 89 CONCEPTS AND CAPABILITIES FOR FUTURE AIR FORCE GLOBAL STRIKE . 91 Insights on Strike Operations: Future Baltic Sea Region Conflict Scenario ............. 92 Insights on Strike Operations: Future South China Sea Conflict Scenario ............. 97 Insights on Forces and Capabilities ....................................... 102 Summary .......................................................... 109 CONCEPTS AND CAPABILITIES FOR FUTURE AIR FORCE ISR, BMC2, AIR MOBILITY, HOMELAND DEFENSE, AND STRATEGIC DETERRENCE OPERATIONS . 111 ISR, BMC2, and Air Refueling Operations: Future South China Sea Conflict ........... 112 ISR, BMC2, and Air Refueling Operations: Future Baltic Sea Region Conflict .......... 115 Insights on Forces and Capabilities for ISR and BMC2 .......................... 116 Insights on Forces and Capabilities for Aerial Refueling ......................... 120 Insights on Forces and Capabilities for Airlift. 125 Insights on Forces and Capabilities for Homeland Defense ...................... 126 Insights on the Future Air Force Nuclear Deterrence Force ....................... 129 Summary .......................................................... 130 SUMMARY OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT INVENTORY RECOMMENDATIONS . 131 Part 1: Shaping and Sizing the Future Force. 132 Part 2: Recommendations for the Air Force’s 2030 Aircraft Inventory ............... 137 Part 3: Illustrating Strategic Choices to Build the Future Force .................... 150 Summary .......................................................... 157 APPENDIX A . 159 APPENDIX
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