MEMO POLICY

CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS Jonas Parello-Plesner and Raffaello Pantucci

Like the United States and Europe, China was caught off-guard SUMMARY China’s response to the revolutions in the by the Arab Spring. It intervened to protect thousands of its Middle East and North Africa was two-faced citizens and its growing commercial interests in North Africa like the Roman god Janus. In a pragmatic – in Libya alone, official estimates said that China had some break with its sovereigntist approach to 38,000 nationals and contracts worth a total of $18.8 billion.1 international relations, China intervened to protect thousands of its citizens and its However, at the same time, it also had to face the possibility growing commercial interests in North that the wave of protests that had engulfed the Middle East Africa and supported UN sanctions against and North Africa could spread to China. The Arab revolutions Muammar Gaddafi. However, since February were an implicit challenge to the “Beijing Consensus” of there has also been a widespread crackdown to authoritarianism coupled with economic growth. prevent the wave of protests that had engulfed the Middle East and North Africa spreading to China. The arrest of artist Ai Weiwei at the China responded to the unique position in which it found beginning of April brought this crackdown to itself by zigzagging. In February, it supported UN sanctions the attention of the world. against Muammar Gaddafi for abuses on his own people

– a surprising breach of its sovereigntist approach to This Janus-faced response presents a dilemma for the European Union. On the international relations. It also responded impressively to the one hand, it suggests that China could in threat to its citizens and was able to rescue them in relatively the future become a partner for the EU in short order, while other nations such as India scrambled to crisis management and that it is moving evacuate far smaller numbers. The Chinese military, which towards a more proactive foreign policy. On was already deployed on a groundbreaking anti-piracy the other hand, China’s response to protests at home represents a clear challenge to the operation nearby, off the coast of East Africa, also took part EU’s newfound commitment to democracy in the operation to evacuate Chinese citizens. This effort promotion. The EU should therefore seek in recognition of its own responsibility to protect its own to do more crisis-management planning citizens alongside the UN sanctions all seemed a reflection together with China while remaining vocal of a broader Chinese realisation that its previous posture and consistent on China’s human rights and internal reform process, even if it incites of absolute non-interference is increasingly at odds with its Chinese anger and results in a reaction in global economic presence. other fields.

1 Ding Qingfen, “China looks to Arab states for opportunities”, China Daily, 9 April 2011, available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-04/09/content_12297375.htm. 2 ECFR/34 June 2011 www.ecfr.eu CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS –against which both EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton “Beijing Consensus” abroad and – even worse – at home. home. at – worse even – and abroad Consensus” “Beijing A new departure for Chinese foreign policy When the protests spread to Egypt, official Chinese press press Chinese official Egypt, to spread protests the When Weiwei at the beginning of April brought this crackdownto thisbroughtApril beginning of the atWeiwei 3 2  East with suspicion. Chinese officials tried to ignore the the ignore to tried officials Chinese suspicion. with East Fromtheoutset, China viewed therevolutions theinMiddle For the EU, this Janus-faced response presents a dilemma. a presents response Janus-faced this EU, the For This memo examines China’s response to the revolutions in the However, after this initial response, China appeared to rapidly Like the Roman god Janus, China had a two-facedJanus,aresponse RomanChinagodhadtheLike an internalan affairinterferedbenot in. amounted to tacit agreement. But by the time it came to Syria, aPR coup for China. This also served to divert Chinese press Middle East and North Africa and their implications for Europe. Jasminenascent country’s the to relation no boreactivities whose people many arrested and detained and net, wide a a clear challenge to the EU’s newfound commitment to to commitment newfound EU’s the to challenge clear a and the new EU ambassador in Beijing spoke out – represents that suggests Libya to responseinitial its hand, one the On Chinesenationals in the country along with 300 Taiwanese – China in response to the Arab Spring. The arrest of artistAi arrestSpring.ofArabThe theresponse toinChina version of “responsibility to protect” – at least towards its own China could in the future become a partner for the EU in crisis coverage away from sensitive issues like democracy and and democracy like issues sensitive from away coverage coverage was directed mainly at efforts to evacuate the 1,800 democracy promotion and to working with partners advancing nascentany citizensonabroad.Internally,clamped downit on the UN resolution imposing a no-fly zone on Libya, which on, but also in order to prevent internal debates about the about debates internal prevent to order in also but on, on Gaddafionabuses foragainst people hisimplementedand a will shape the EU-China relationship. responseSyrianthecrackdown,throughto UN the calling it revolutions as well as those involved in the limited protests in role.On the other hand, China’s response to protests at home managementmovingisthatandittowards more proactive a to the Arab Spring. Externally, it went along with sanctionswithalong went Externally,Spring. itArab the to the attention of the world. turmoil has been causing chaos across the Arab world, China its view had fully hardened and it rejected an international an rejected it and hardened fully had view its issue, in part from a lack of understanding of what was going mot f uii’ s-ald amn rvlto t China. to revolution Jasmine so-called Tunisia’s of import social change, though some of the more liberal parts of the of parts liberal more the of some thoughchange, social similarvalues. has also cracked down internally. Security forces have cast have forces Security internally. down cracked also has pull back into its more traditional posture. It opted to abstain foreignpolicy its–own version “responsibleofa stakeholder”  arbitrary-detention-in-china/. head-of-delegation-of-the-european-union-to-china-on-the-increasing-use-of- and http://www.humanrights-defenders.org/es/2011/04/statement-by-the- respectively, http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/es/article_10944_es.htm Markus Ederer,HeadofDelegationthe EuropeanUniontoChina,see, For theresponseofEUHighRepresentative CatherineAshtonandAmbassador Government-Tanks-Deploy-Around-Hama-121705799.html. available at http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Syrian-Activists-Say-“Syrian Activists: Government Forces Arrest Dozens”, 3 Thetension between these twofaces ofChina Voice of America 2 And all the whiletheallAndthis , 12 May 2011, ArabSpring.throwing By countrythe into chaos,Libyanthe Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying tried to make the abstentionthe make to tried Ying Fu MinisterForeign Vice Westerwelle, was received as an “ally” two weeks later,afterweeks“ally”two Westerwelle, anreceived aswas 9  8  7  6  5  4  However, Gaddafi’s violent response to the revolution in in Libyamade impossibleit forChina revolution continueto ignoreto the the to response violent Gaddafi’s However, Libyan leaders to the International Criminal Court. However, Having completed President Hu Jintao’s command to “spare action against Libya, as we think this will cause even more even cause will this think we as Libya, against action about the pernicious effect of military action, saying: “History attraction to democracy. autocracy and how this was at least in part inspiring the Arab also has implications for how seriously Europe is taken in in taken is Europe seriously how for implications has also Germanyabstainedresolutionhadvoteonthe in 1973. Corporation (CNPC) complained that its operations in the the in operations its that complained (CNPC) Corporation Chinese press, such as Caixin, wrote about the instabilityofthe about Caixin,wrote as suchpress,Chinese CouncilResolution 1973,whichauthorised internationalthe embargo, arms an imposed which 1970, ResolutionCouncil China and further abroad. giving peace a chance suits the common interests of all all of interests common the suits chance a peace giving iiin casualties.” civilian countrywereattackedrampaging by mobsduring initialthe community “to take all necessary measures … to protect protect attack of to threatunder populatedareascivilian civiliansand … measures necessary all take “to community other and Gaddafi of referral possible made and dearest, citizensin Libya”, China also gave its support to UN Security occasion of the French-sponsored G-20 meeting in Nanjing French-sponsoredinmeeting theG-20 ofoccasion one of China’sofholiestone principles: stability.frigate Athatwas resemble a no vote, declaring: “We don’t support military military support don’t “We declaring: vote, no a resemble repeatedly proves that armed force doesn’t solve problems, solve doesn’t force armed that proves repeatedly no efforts to ensure the safety of life and properties of Chinese Chinese Four efforts. rescue in assist to redeployed was withdrew into its hard shell by abstaining on UN Security Security UN on abstaining by shell hard its into withdrew more difficult. In particular, the China National Petroleum National China the particular, In difficult. more militarytransport planeswere alsosentfrom Xinjiang, their three short weeks later, the Chinese diplomatic turtle turtle diplomatic Chinese the later, weeks short three and nearest his and Gaddafi on freeze asset and ban travel takeoff marking a new departure for Chinese foreign policy. treatment of Sarkozy and Westerwelle demonstrates how the sides.” inlate March to admonish French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi”. upheaval. nationals Chinese of evacuation orderly the made leader participating in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden Aden of Gulf the in operations anti-piracy in participating failure of the EU’s large states to coordinate foreign policy foreign coordinate to states large EU’s the of failure Observer Valentina Pop,“ChinavoicesworryaboutNATO civiliancasualtiesinLibya”, 00144feabdc0.html#axzz1NXSMG46k. 24 February2011,availableathttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eef58d52-3fe2-11e0-811f- Leslie HookandGeoffDyer,“ChineseoilinterestsattackedinLibya”, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-03/26/content_12230390.htm. “NATO-led airstrikes continue inLibya”, un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10200.doc.htm. release, UnitedNationsSecurityCouncil,17 March 2011,availableathttp://www. Measures toProtectCivilians’,ByVoteof10 inFavourWith5Abstentions”,Press See “SecurityCouncilApproves‘No-FlyZone’ OverLibya,Authorizing‘AllNecessary See, forexample,http://magazine.caing.com/2011-02-12/100224840.html. idAFL3E7EU21S20110330. 30 March2011,availableathttp://af.reuters.com/article/currenciesNews/ Yann LeGuernigou,“FranceandChinagrapple withG20agenda,Libya”, 8 By contrast, Germany’s foreign minister, Guido Guido minister, foreign Germany’s contrast, By , 26March2011,availableathttp://euobserver.com/884/32072. 5 In allowing this to take place, Gaddafi violated violated Gaddafi place, take to this allowing In 7 Likewise, President Hu used the the used Hu President Likewise, 4 China Daily,26March2011,available at Financial Times, Reuters, 6 EU 9 The In reality, however, the Chinese abstention amounted to a tacit terminology will not have been well received in Beijing, which agreement to a no-fly zone. In 2007, China vetoed a resolution goes to great lengths to characterise its presence in Africa as criticising Myanmar. At the time, China’s UN ambassador Wang a “win-win” situation. Guangya swept the issue under the rug, stating: “No country is perfect.”10 China also has blocked international action over But although these factors may suggest China’s response to other intransigent governments such as Zimbabwe and North the Libya crisis was a one-off, there are also reasons to think Korea. Traditionally, China would accept that instability and it may indicate a longer-term shift in Chinese foreign policy, coups are part of the game of doing business in Africa without dictated by the increasing number of Chinese citizens and the need for interference.11 However, according to insiders, workers abroad. In 2005, there were three million Chinese China never even threatened to veto resolution 1973. As one abroad. Now, the number has almost doubled to five million.16 prominent academic put it: “We are in the twenty-first century, Around one million of them are in potentially troubled parts China needs to adapt.”12 China’s abstention and evacuation of Africa.17 It is clear that there are now a number of countries of citizens represents a tacit and qualified acceptance of the that are too big – in terms of the number of Chinese citizens doctrine of “responsibility to protect”. there – to fail. This means that the “going out” strategy orchestrated by the Ministry of Commerce and spearheaded This new departure in Chinese foreign policy was largely by eager Chinese provinces now has to be squared with pragmatic. If Beijing had blocked action at the UN and broader strategic calculations. With the Libya evacuation, the struggled to extract its own citizens from a chaotic situation, it Chinese government has demonstrated that it will do what could have faced criticism at home. China was also influenced it takes to get its citizens out of chaotic situations in large by traditional South-South cooperation, which made it pay numbers, something it had already started to do on a smaller attention to the views of the other Arab nations and regional scale in Pakistan and unstable parts of Africa when insurgent organisations such as the Arab League that were in favour or terrorist groups kidnapped Chinese nationals. of UN action. The crisis also came at a time when China was seeking to improve its foreign policy image. Rightly or This trend is likely to bring China further out into the world and wrongly, China spent much of last year being portrayed in the test its foreign policy principles, just as broadening interests region as an aggressive neighbour in Asia. Furthermore, the changed the behaviour of the UK and the US in preceding US-Russia reset has made Russia a more cooperative partner centuries. China’s citizens are starting to feel the same need for the West, leaving China with nobody to hide behind at for protection all over the globe, forcing Beijing to shoulder the UN. The Libyan ambassador’s personal denouncement of one of the many burdens of great-power status. In that Gaddafi at the Security Council gave China another reason to respect, a red thread connects Sudan, where China provided consider this a special case.13 election observers for the Southern referendum in 2011, to Libya and Ivory Coast, where China accepted the need for China may also have simply lost patience with Gaddafi. His the international community to intervene in domestic crises. declaration on state television early during the protests that Professor Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University even sees this “the unity of China was more important than the people of new departure in Chinese foreign policy as an expression of Tiananmen Square” will have gotten pulses racing among the Confucian morality in which “the sphere of concern for any Chinese leadership, who will not have appreciated the events humane ruler should be the whole world, not just the people of June 1989 being compared with his domestic crackdown.14 of one state”.18 Beijing will also not have forgotten Gaddafi’s flirtation with Taiwan’s former leader Chen Shui-bian. Gaddafi also snubbed China by sending only a junior delegate to the The crackdown in China China-Africa summit in 2006. At the China-Africa summit in 2009, the then Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa Meanwhile, as it responded to the foreign policy crisis in scorned the host and soon also gave an interview in which Libya, China also faced a domestic challenge as the scent he stated: “When we look at the reality on the ground we find of jasmine spread to China. Anonymous online organisers that there is something akin to a Chinese invasion on the saw the trouble in Tunisia and Egypt and called for citizens African continent. This is something that brings to mind the to participate in protests in designated places in major effects that colonialism had on the African continent.”15 This cities, telling individuals to simply stroll by the protest area in order to avoid attracting attention from security officials. These “protests” started to take place in late January, as the

10 Explanatory Statement by H.E. Ambassador Wang Guangya, Permanent trouble in North Africa first caught on. For the most part, Representative of China to the UN, on Draft Resolution on Myanmar at the Security protesters were outnumbered by the Chinese police and the Council, available at http://www.china-un.org/eng/xw/t288676.htm. 11 Jonathan Holslag, “China and the Coups: coping with instability in Africa”, African Affairs, 10 May 2011, available at http://afraf.oxfordjournals.org/content/ early/2011/05/10/afraf.adr022.abstract. 12 Author interview, Shanghai, April 2011. 13 Bill Chappell, “Libyan Ambassador Denounces Gadhafi at UN”, National Public 16 Erica S. Downs, “New Interest Groups in Chinese Foreign Policy”, Brookings Radio, 25 February 2011, available at http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo- Institution, 13 April 2011, available at http://www.brookings.edu/ way/2011/02/25/134069630/libyan-ambassador-denounces-gadhafi-at-u-n. testimony/2011/0413_china_companies_downs.aspx#_ftnref1. 14 Pepe Escobar, “Gaddafi goes Tiananmen”, Asia Times, 24 February 2011, available at 17 Arnaud de Borchgrave, “Pakistan’s split personality”, UPI, 3 May 2011, available at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB24Ak05.html. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2011/05/03/Commentary- 15 Sawsan Abu-Husain, “Q&A with Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa”, Asharq Pakistans-split-personality/UPI-50101304416227/. Al-Awsat, 10 November 2009, available at http://www.asharq-e.com/news. 18 Yan Xuetong, “The Sources of Chinese Conduct”, Project Syndicate, 28 March 2011, sp?section=3&id=18765. available at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/xyan1/English. 3 4 ECFR/34 June 2011 www.ecfr.eu CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS 24 23  22 21  20  19  (and the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan). But although The Chinese leadership may have thought it could quietly quietly could it thought have may leadership Chinese The The internet seems to be being censored more actively actively more censored being be to seems internet The It’s not clear whether the regime’s fears are justified. Some justified. are fears regime’s the whether clear not It’s Politburo member and security head Zhou Yongkang told his and disputes while they are still embryonic”. a decision had been taken to crack down more generally with at Wangfujing, in Beijing. This led to international media media international to led This Beijing. in Wangfujing, at attacked. the circumventing points access that suggest reports and against rising prices. country, compared to 28 percent in Egypt; and 91 percent percent 91 and Egypt; in percent 28 to compared country, crackdown while the world’s attention was focused on Libya coverage and the government’s reaction to the protests protests the to reaction government’s the and coverage Shanghaiprotestbizarrethedisruptedways:protests inthe 87 percent of Chinese were satisfied with the state of their of state the with satisfied were Chinese of percent 87 of a 26-year-old in Tunisia could set a whole region alight. alight. region whole a set could Tunisia in 26-year-old a of on activists, lawyers and social-rights advocates in the the in advocates social-rights and lawyers activists, on run newspaper, carried a virulent attack on Ai Weiwei that Weiwei Ai on attack virulent a carried newspaper, run was toppled was that they should “strive to defuse conflictsdefuse to “striveshould they that was toppled was with whistles.withtraditionalmoretherealsowere But showsof policemen and machines street-cleaning by disrupted was made clear he deserved to be arrested.be deservedto heclear made journalistsshield”shoulda“the useassuggestsnotlaw that this may have worked for a while, the decision to arrest thearrest decisionto thewhile, a forworked have may this to 20 percent of Egyptians. of percent 20 to internationallyrenownedsubsequentlyWeiweiandartistAi saw the country’s economic situation as good, compared compared good, as situation economic country’s the saw happy. The Pew Research Center’s 2010 polls showed that that showed polls 2010 Center’s Research Pew The happy. prosecute him for economic crimes tipped the balance and balance the tipped crimes economic for him prosecute particularly alarmed by the way that the self-immolation self-immolation the that way the by alarmed particularly polls actually suggest that the Chinese people are relatively are people Chinese the that suggestactually polls Since February there has been a widespread crackdown crackdown widespread a been has there February Since from Europe. In April, the forces that the lesson of Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak full authorisation.full force, like the detention and beatings of foreign journalists foreign of beatings and detention the like force, China in apparatus security the However, media. foreign firewall such as Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) are being are (VPNs) Networks Private Virtual as such firewall disappearances. extra-judicial and arrests regular of form brought widespread international condemnation, includingcondemnation,international widespread brought became a bigger story than the protests themselves. bleaker picture, with the Chinese struggling particularly particularly struggling Chinese the with picture, bleaker   idUKTRE71K14E20110221. 2011, available at http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/uk-china-unrest-Chris Buckley, “China calls for domestic unrest to be defused”, Economist Google Mail has been operating erratically in the country.purposely See also opaque“Leaping manner the wall”,in which The filters operate. One noticeableIt is alwaysrecent hardfeature to knowis that exactly what is going on with the Chinese internet, given the chinarealtime/2011/04/21/gallup-chinese-people-see-themselves-struggling/. Report, The Josh Chin, “Gallup: Chinese People See Themselves Struggling”, China Real Time pubs/1945/chinese-may-not-be-ready-for-revolution. Research Center Publications, 31 March 2011, available at http://pewresearch.org/James Bell, “Upbeat Chinese May Not Be Primed for a Jasmine Revolution”, Pew en.huanqiu.com/opinion/editorial/2011-04/641187.html. “Law will not concede before maverick”, economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/04/law_china. Banyan, “A Spear not a Shield”, The 19 , 24 March 2011, available at http://www.economist.com/node/18446976. Wall Street Journal A foreign ministry spokesman’s statement that that statement spokesman’s ministry foreign A 20 The ChineseThebeenhaveregimeseems to 23 , 21 April 2011, available at http://blogs.wsj.com/ Economist Global Times 22 Global Times However, other polls paint a paint polls other However, , 4 April 2011, available at http://www. , 6 April 2011, available at http:// 24 , a nationalistic state- However, two daysHowever, two Reuters 21 , 21 February ntzn” epne b sekn ised f A Wia” – Weilai” “Ai of instead speaking by responded “netizens” 26  25  2012, the prospects for political reform in the next year are year next the in politicalreform prospectsfor the 2012, The crackdown that has followed the Arab revolutionsputs Arab thefollowed has thatcrackdown The The government is trying to keep up by blocking internet internet blocking by up keep to trying is government The The son’s cry as he left the scene, “My father is Li Gang”, Gang”, Li is father “My scene, the left he as cry son’s The It is unlikely that the Chinese government will be able to to able be will government Chinese the that unlikely is It Later, an attempt was made to block the word “jasmine” – “jasmine” word the block to made was attempt an Later, Huntsmanwas present at one of the early protests in Beijing. and the Shanghai Expo and the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010. In also now using the Arab Spring as a convenient excuse to to excuse convenient a as Spring Arab the using now also it East, Middle the and AfricaNorth in events to reaction a Chinese Communist Party and the leadership transition in transition leadership the and Party Communist Chinese also were revolution the than rather itself flower the about and-run incident involving the son of Li Gang, a local official. are increasingly demanding justice and fairness. Bloggers are another 20 percent concerned the police. October 2009), 70 percent of hot microblog topics concerned continue political reform at the National People’s Congress,People’s National the at reformpolitical continue detaining public figures next time”. one point in late February 2011, the word “Huntsman” was“Huntsman” word the 2011,February late in point one non-existent. the and riots Xinjiang the 2008, in Olympics the and riots which meant that images of Chinese leaders singing songs songs singing leaders Chinese of images that meant which which means “love the future”. was acquitted (albeit an unlikely outcome), “the authorities“theoutcome),unlikely an (albeitacquitted was the run-up to July’sanniversaryrun-up90thfoundingtothethethe of of thesecurity forces were contradicting his words byrounding to promising was Jiabao Wen that March early in time the that of a Universityhit-aHebeiastudentkilled wasofofthatinwho takingupcases ofinjustice from allover thecountry such as in doubt China’sdoubtcommitmentpoliticalexactlyreform.intoAt the 20 months since they started appearing in China (in (in China in appearing started they since months 20 the sensitive 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square in 2009, 2009, in Square Tiananmen of anniversary 20th sensitive should be more cautious and find sufficientfindcautiousmoreandevidence shouldbebefore searches involving controversial words and phrases. At At phrases. and words controversial involving searches has continued long enough to suggest that the regime is is regime the that suggest to enough long continued has improperbehaviourremarks governmentorby officials and postpone political reform – just like it did with the Tibet Tibet the with did it like just – reform political postpone up activists. But while the crackdown may have initially been later, it appeared to criticise the arrest. It said that if Ai Weiwei prevent citizens from speaking their mind. Ordinary Chinese blocked. Ai Weiwei’s name was also blocked, but Chinese Chinese but blocked, also was name Weiwei’s Ai blocked. Jon Ambassador US the that emerged it when blocked by blocked foreign sites such as Twitter and Facebook. In In Facebook. and Twitter as such sites foreign blocked by left void the filled have microblogs Chinese Domestic blogosphere. the in corruption official for synonym a became http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/opinion/2011-04/09/content_12297886.htm. “Political Activism cannot be a legal shield”, available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-03/26/content_12230674.htm.Cheng Yingqi, “Micro blogs now No 3 online source of info”, Global Times 25 , 8 April 2011, available at 26 China Daily , 26 March 2011, Europe’s dilemma Chinese anger and results in a reaction in other fields. While China is not going to react by hurting its own interests, it is China’s external response to the Arab Spring and particularly likely to react in ways that will be frustrating to European Libya suggests that China will move towards a more proactive policymakers. For example, in response to the awarding of foreign policy on crisis management. As China learns that the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, China appears to have support for unstable regimes can have a direct negative impact decided to hold up salmon imports from Norway. Similar on China’s interests in foreign lands, and can ultimately lead soft sanctions have been levied on other EU member states to costly evacuations of Chinese citizens working for Chinese that have held high-level meetings with the Dalai Lama. companies, it may become more willing to cooperate with Interestingly, however, crucial interests have not been affected. other partners including the EU on good governance in other For example, while Norwegian salmon may be rotting in their countries, particularly in Africa. For example, China has played containers, a number of extractive industry deals have gone a positive role in Sudan and even sent observers to monitor the ahead. This reflects both the increasing interdependence of referendum on independence in Southern Sudan in January. the EU-China relationship and the Chinese government’s fury at what is seen as foreign interference in internal affairs. In order to influence this internal debate in China about how to manage risk abroad, the EU should thus seek to develop a Europe must strike a balance if it is to uphold its vision of “stability pact plus” with China to coordinate abroad, starting a foreign policy that promotes European values around the with more innocuous issues such as consular protection. world. As Nicolas Sarkozy put it at the EU summit on 24 Likewise, it makes sense to try to breathe new life into the March: “Every ruler … must understand that the reaction of moribund EU-Africa cooperation on development. This the international community and Europe will from now on will be a means to influence the learning curve that China’s be the same each time … We will be on the side of peaceful internal thinking is undergoing on risk management, which protesters who must not be repressed with violence.”27 How could include a pragmatic wish for good governance in other to apply this dictum to China remains a challenge for the EU. countries in order to protect its investments abroad. In Just as China’s response to the Arab revolutions was Janus- this context, in-depth European expertise and knowledge faced, Europe will in the future have to make hard choices on parts of the world such as North Africa can be used to between values and interests in its China policy. establish dialogue with Chinese foreign policy and business circles, which have less experience of these regions. Europe and China will continue to have deep and growing interests in unstable parts of Africa. It makes sense to start to do more crisis-management planning together and to think through where they might support each other in the event of a local breakdown in civil order.

Another lesson from the Arab Spring is that it is sometimes easier to influence China through others. China’s abstention on UN Security Resolution 1973 was influenced by the support of the Arab League and the African Union for intervention. The EU should add a discreet China component to many of its dialogues with emerging countries. This means that, when looking to get movement on UN action towards a trouble spot, the EU should focus on persuading regional multilateral actors or other BRICs and on highlighting their deliberations in discussions with the Chinese. Clearly, China is more willing to act when regional multilateral actors or traditional South-South allies have spoken. China cannot hide behind the language of non-interference when such countries make clear requests for action.

Nevertheless, China’s response to Arab revolutions suggests that, even if it becomes more helpful in promoting good governance and in crisis management in places like Africa, it is likely to continue to suppress demands for democracy at home. This presents a complicated paradox for the EU, especially as it attempts to be more proactive in promoting democratic norms globally.

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The Council is chaired by Martti and feedback on policy ideas and help with ECFR’s activities thematic task forces, members provide ECFR staff with advice meets once a year as a full body. Through geographical and from the EU’s member states and candidate countries - which politicians, decision makers, thinkers and business people distinguished Council of over one hundred Members - A pan-European Council. media outlets. of ECFR’ gatherings in EU capitals and outreach to strategic policy reports, private meetings and public debates, ‘friends focus. ECFR’s activities include primary research, publication of its objectives through innovative projects with a pan-European researchers and practitioners from all over Europe to advance ECFR has brought together a team of distinguished A distinctive research and policy development process. communications. offices are platforms for research, debate, advocacy and ECFR plans to open offices in Warsaw and Brussels. 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European Council on Foreign Relations ECFR has brought together a (ECFR) is the GmbH Roland BergerStrategyConsultants Chairman, Founder andHonorary Roland Berger (Germany) former PrimeMinister Governor, NationalBankofPoland; Marek Belka (Poland) Deputy Director, ElPaís Lluís Bassets (Spain) MP; formerForeignMinister Dora Bakoyannis (Greece) President oftheEuropeanConvention Former PrimeMinisterandvice Giuliano Amato (Italy) President Management Initiative;former Chairman oftheBoard,Crisis Martti Ahtisaari (Finland) Democratic Party policy spokespersonfortheSocial Committeeandforeign Affairs Deputy ChairmanoftheForeign Urban Ahlin (Sweden) and ChairmanofBavarianNordicA/S President andCEO,A.J.AamundA/S Asger Aamund (Denmark) countries. candidate and states member EU the from figures cultural and activists leaders, business intellectuals, public ministers, and parliamentarians former and current commissioners, European presidents, ministers, prime former are Relations Foreign on Council European the of members Among Journalist Director ofMelakInvestments/ Ipek Cem Taha (Turkey) California Catalunya andUniversityofSouthern Professor, UniversitatOberta de Manuel Castells (Spain) Cooperation Minister forInternationalDevelopment Gunilla Carlsson (Sweden) former PrimeMinister President oftheEuropeanParliament; Jerzy Buzek (Poland) and CentralEurope Chairman of the Institute for the Danube Erhrad Busek (Austria) Writer andacademic Ian Buruma (The Netherlands) Minister (Taoiseach) Ambassador totheUSA;formerPrime Former EuropeanCommission John Bruton (Ireland) Commissioner Vice PresidentoftheSenate;formerEU Emma Bonino (Italy) President ofVenture EquityBulgariaLtd Founder, CommunitasFoundationand Svetoslav Bojilov (Bulgaria) Lewiatan Confederation ofPrivateEmployers- Economist. PresidentofthePolish Henryka Bochniarz (Poland) Foreign Minister Carl Bildt (Sweden) Council; formerPrimeMinister Chairman, PrimeMinister’s Economic Jan Krzysztof Bielecki (Poland) Politica Internazionale) President, ISPI(IstitutopergliStudidi Boris Bianchieri (Italy) Reconstruction andDevelopment Chief Economist,EuropeanBankfor Erik Berglöf (Sweden) Parliament formerMemberofEuropean office; (Confindustria)-Brussels Industry Director, ConfederationofItalian Gianfranco Dell’Alba (Italy) former PrimeMinister Member ofEuropeanParliament; Jean-Luc Dehaene (Belgium) Poet andCulturalCritic Aleš Debeljak (Slovenia) Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (Turkey) Commission Vice PresidentoftheEuropean President, FriendsofEurope;former Etienne Davignon (Belgium) Aspen InstituteItalia Director GeneralInternationalActivities, Marta Dassù (Italy) Minister andForeign Progressive Studies;formerPrime President, FoundationforEuropean President, ItalianieuropeiFoundation; Massimo D’Alema (Italy) Action Service Counsellor oftheEuropeanExternal Robert Cooper (United Kingdom) Member ofEuropeanParliament Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Germany) former StateSecretary Ambassador totheUnitedKingdom; Nicola Clase (Sweden) of EastAnglia;formerHomeSecretary Visiting ProfessorofPolitics,University (United Kingdom) Charles Clarke International Relations(IPRI) Chairman ofthePortugueseInstitute Carlos Gaspar (Portugal) University Professor ofEuropeanStudies,Oxford (United Kingdom) Timothy Garton Ash Foreign Minister Speaker oftheParliament;former Jaime Gama (Portugal) Minister forClimateandEnergy Lykke Friis (Denmark) Investment Bank Business Leader;formerCEOCarnegie Karin Forseke (Sweden/USA) Chancellor Former ForeignMinisterandvice- Joschka Fischer (Germany) Foreign Minister President, ChamberofDeputies;former Gianfranco Fini (Italy) Policy Representative forForeignandSecurity European Commission/EUHigh Adviser totheVicePresidentof Steven Everts (The Netherlands) former ForeignMinister Chairman, BalticDevelopmentForum; Uffe Ellemann-Jensen (Denmark) Former FinanceMinister Hans Eichel (Germany) Member ofEuropeanParliament Andrew Duff (United Kingdom) President, DEMOSHungary Tibor Dessewffy (Hungary) Economy andDevelopment Vice-President andDirectorofGlobal Kemal Dervis (Turkey) (Bratislava) Marshall FundoftheUnitedStates Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Pavol Demeš (Slovakia)

Anthony Giddens Olli Kivinen (Finland) Mabel van Oranje Javier Solana (Spain) (United Kingdom) Writer and columnist (The Netherlands) Former EU High Representative for the Emeritus Professor, London School CEO, the Elders Common Foreign and Security Policy & of Economics Gerald Knaus (Austria) Secretary-General of the Council of the Chairman of the European Stability Marcelino Oreja Aguirre (Spain) EU; former Secretary General of NATO Teresa Patricio Gouveia Initiative and Carr Center Fellow Member of the Board, Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas; former EU George Soros (Hungary/USA) (Portugal) Caio Koch-Weser (Germany) Founder and Chairman, Open Society Trustee to the Board of the Calouste Vice Chairman, Deutsche Bank Group; Commissioner Gulbenkian Foundation; former former State Secretary Institute Foreign Minister Cem Özdemir (Germany) Rem Koolhaas (The Netherlands) Leader, Bündnis90/Die Grünen Goran Stefanovski (Macedonia) Heather Grabbe Architect and urbanist; Professor at the (Green Party) Playwright and Academic (United Kingdom) Graduate School of Design, Harvard Ana Palacio (Spain) Rory Stewart (United Kingdom) Executive Director, Open Society University Former Foreign Minister; former Senior Member of Parliament Institute – Brussels President and General Counsel of the Ivan Krastev (Bulgaria) Dominique Strauss-Kahn Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Chair of Board, Centre for Liberal World Bank Group Strategies (France) Director of the Centre on International Simon Panek (Czech Republic) Former Managing Director, Conflict Resolution, Columbia Chairman, People in Need Foundation University (New York); Senior Fellow, Aleksander Kwasniewski International Monetary Fund; former Brookings Institution; former Under- (Poland) Chris Patten (United Kingdom) Finance Minister Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Former President of Poland Chancellor of Oxford University and Alexander Stubb (Finland) Operations at the UN Operations at co-chair of the International Crisis Foreign Minister the UN Mart Laar (Estonia) Group; former EU Commissioner MP; former Prime Minister Michael Stürmer (Germany) Fernando Andresen Guimarães Diana Pinto (France) Chief Correspondent, Die Welt (Portugal) Miroslav Lajcˇák (Slovakia) Historian and author Advisor, Multilateral Relations, Managing Director for Russia, Eastern Ion Sturza (Romania) European External Action Service (EEAS) Neighbourhood & Western Balkans, Jean Pisani-Ferry (France) President, GreenLight Invest.; former European External Action Service; Director, Bruegel and Professor at Prime Minister of the Republic of Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg former Foreign Minister Universite Paris-Dauphine Moldova (Germany) Pascal Lamy (France) Ruprecht Polenz (Germany) Helle Thorning Schmidt Former Defence Minister Honorary President, Notre Europe and MP and Chairman of the Bundestag Director-General of WTO; former EU Foreign Affairs Committee (Denmark) István Gyarmati (Hungary) Commissioner Leader of the Social Democratic Party President and CEO, International Lydie Polfer (Luxembourg) Centre for Democratic Transition Mark Leonard (United Kingdom) MP; former Foreign Minister Teija Tiilikainen (Finland) Director, European Council on Foreign Director at the Finnish Institute for Hans Hækkerup (Denmark) Relations Andrew Puddephatt International relations Chairman, Defence Commission; (United Kingdom) Juan Fernando López Aguilar Loukas Tsoukalis (Greece) former Defence Minister Director, Global Partners & Associated Professor, University of Athens and (Spain) Ltd. President, ELIAMEP Vaclav Havel (Czech Republic) Member of European Parliament; Former President former Minister of Justice Vesna Pusic´ (Croatia) Erkki Tuomioja (Finland) MP, President of the National MP; former Foreign Minister Steven Heinz (Austria) Adam Lury (United Kingdom) Committee for Monitoring the EU Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, CEO, Menemsha Ltd Accession Negotiations and Professor Daniel Valtchev (Bulgaria) Lansdowne Partners Ltd of Sociology, University of Zagreb Former deputy PM and Minister of David Miliband Annette Heuser (Germany) Education (United Kingdom) George Robertson Executive Director, Bertelsmann Vaira Vike- Freiberga (Latvia) Foundation Washington DC MP, Former Secretary of State for (United Kingdom) Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Former Secretary General of NATO Former President Diego Hidalgo (Spain) Alain Minc (France) Albert Rohan (Austria) Antonio Vitorino (Portugal) Co-founder of Spanish newspaper Lawyer; former EU Commissioner El País; President, FRIDE Head of AM Conseil; former chairman, Former Secretary General for Foreign Le Monde Affairs Jaap de Hoop Scheffer Andre Wilkens (Germany) Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgaria) Dariusz Rosati (Poland) Director for International Relations, (The Netherlands) Foreign Minister; former Defence Former Foreign Minister Stiftung Mercator Former NATO Secretary General Minister; former Member of European Parliament Adam D. Rotfeld (Poland) Shirley Williams Danuta Hübner (Poland) Former Foreign Minister; Co-Chairman (United Kingdom) Politician, former EU Commissioner Dominique Moisi (France) of Polish-Russian Group on Difficult Professor Emeritus, Kennedy School and professor of economics and Senior Adviser, IFRI Matters, Commissioner of Euro- of Government; former Leader of the since 2009 Member of the European Atlantic Security Initiative Liberal Democrats in the House of Parliament and Chair of the Regional Pierre Moscovici (France) Lords Development Committee. MP; former Minister for European Daniel Sachs (Sweden) Affairs CEO, Proventus Michiel van Hulten Carlos Alonso Zaldívar (Spain) Ambassador to Brazil (The Netherlands) Nils Muiznieks (Latvia) Stefano Sannino (Italy) Former Member of European Director, Advanced Social and Political Deputy Director General for Parliament Research Institute, University of Latvia Enlargement, European Commission Anna Ibrisagic (Sweden) Hildegard Müller (Germany) Pierre Schori (Sweden) Member of European Parliament Chairwoman, BDEW Bundesverband Chair of Olof Palme Memorial Fund; der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft former Director General, FRIDE; former Jaakko Iloniemi (Finland) SRSG to Cote d´Ivoire Former Ambassador and former Wolfgang Münchau (Germany) Executive Director, Crisis Management President, Eurointelligence ASBL Wolfgang Schüssel (Austria) Initiative MP; former Chancellor Kalypso Nicolaïdis Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) (Greece/France) Karel Schwarzenberg Chairman, Munich Security Professor of International Relations, (Czech Republic) Conference; Global Head of University of Oxford Foreign Minister Government Affairs Allianz SE Daithi O’Ceallaigh (Ireland) Giuseppe Scognamiglio (Italy) Lionel Jospin (France) Director-General, Institute of Head of Institutional and International Former Prime Minister International and European Affairs Relations, UniCredit Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) Christine Ockrent (Belgium) Narcís Serra (Spain) Professor, London School of Economics CEO, Audiovisuel Extérieur de la Chair of CIDOB Foundation; former France Vice President of the Spanish Sylvie Kauffmann (France) Government Executive Editor of Le Monde Andrzej Olechowski (Poland) Former Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski (Poland) Glenys Kinnock Foreign Minister (United Kingdom) Dick Oosting (The Netherlands) Former Member of European CEO, European Council on Foreign Aleksander Smolar (Poland) Parliament; Shadow Lords Relations; former Europe Director, Chairman of the Board, Stefan Batory Spokesperson on International Amnesty International Foundation Development

7 8 ECFR/34 June 2011 www.ecfr.eu CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS About the authors the About Associate in the Transnational Threats and Political Risk Risk Political and Threats Transnational the in Associate Associate at the European Council on Foreign Relations from oa Parello-Plesner Jonas afeo Pantucci Raffaelo

2009. He writes on Asia for various media outlets. He is also Economics,nationaleCopenhagenEcoleUniversitythe and was he Previously,Relations.Foreign on CouncilEuropean Director of a development NGO with activities in Asia. He was also a diplomat and, in his last position, served as Denmark’s also an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for the for InternationalCentre the at FellowAssociate an also is HeWashington, D.C.in International (CSIS) Studiesand Research a was he this to Prior 2011. May to 2010 October d’administration (ENA) in Paris. on the editorial board of RÆSON, a Danish magazine on on magazine Danish a RÆSON, of board editorial the on international affairs. He is a graduate of London School of School London of graduate a is He affairs. international programme at the International Institute for Strategic Strategic for Institute International the at programme Senior Advisor on China and North East Asia from 2005- from Asia East North and China on Advisor Senior Study for Radicalisation (ICSR) at King’s College, London. Studies (IISS). He has also worked at the Center for Strategic was a Shanghai-based Programme Programme Shanghai-based a was is a Senior Policy Fellow at the the at Fellow Policy Senior a is Acknowledgements Abildgaard Kristensen for providing shelter of the highest highest the of shelter providing for Kristensen Abildgaard European officials and academics who shared their insights their shared who academics officials and European ECFR’s China programme coordinator, for sharing the fun the sharing for coordinator, programme China ECFR’s The authors wish to thank the numerous Chinese and and Chinese numerous the thank to wish authors The and burdens of a longerresearchRasmusChina,andaburdensto tripand of China’s evolution. We are grateful to the EU STF Programme quality during the research trip combined with sparring on sparring with combined trip research the during quality Richard, Alice thank to like also would We ours. is errors thinking, but responsibility for the conclusions and any any and conclusions the for responsibility but thinking, our informed have them of Many 2011.March-April in trip into China’s evolving situation, in particular during a research for supporting Raffaelo Pantucci’s research in China. ECFR Publications

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