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Force Multiplier for Intelligence T Force Multiplier for Intelligence T R FORCE MULTIPLIER FOR INTELLIGENCE Collaborative Open Source Networks de Borchgrave A Report of the Transnational Threats Project CSIS REPO Center for Strategic and International Studies / Sanderson / Hamed Authors Arnaud de Borchgrave Thomas Sanderson Jacqueline Harned ISBN 978-0-89206-503-5 THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 Telephone: (202) 887-0200 • Fax: (202) 775-3199 Ë|xHSKITCy065035zv*:+:!:+:! E-mail: [email protected] • Web: www.csis.org/ July 2007 FORCE MULTIPLIER FOR INTELLIGENCE Collaborative Open Source Networks A Report of the Transnational Threats Project Center for Strategic and International Studies Authors Arnaud de Borchgrave Thomas Sanderson Jacqueline Harned July 2007 About CSIS The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) seeks to advance global security and prosperity in an era of economic and political transformation by providing strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS serves as a strategic planning partner for the government by conducting research and analysis and developing policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Our more than 25 programs are organized around three themes: Defense and Security Policy—With one of the most comprehensive programs on U.S. defense policy and international security, CSIS proposes reforms to U.S. defense organization, defense policy, and the defense industrial and technology base. Other CSIS programs offer solutions to the challenges of proliferation, transnational terrorism, homeland security, and post-conflict reconstruction. Global Challenges—With programs on demographics and population, energy security, global health, technology, and the international financial and economic system, CSIS addresses the new drivers of risk and opportunity on the world stage. Regional Transformation—CSIS is the only institution of its kind with resident experts studying the transformation of all of the world’s major geographic regions. CSIS specialists seek to anticipate changes in key countries and regions—from Africa to Asia, from Europe to Latin America, and from the Middle East to North America. Founded in 1962 by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., with more than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated experts. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2007 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data CIP information available on request ISBN 978-0-89206-503-5 Cover images: Left to right, iStockphoto © Duncan Walker; iStockphoto © Nicholas Monu; Corbis © Mike Finn-Kelcey/Reuters The CSIS Press Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org Contents Project Participants IV Foreword V Judge William H. Webster Moderator’s Note VI Thomas Sanderson Acknowledgments VIII 1. Introduction 1 Arnaud de Borchgrave 2. Trusted Information Networks (TINs) and the Intelligence Community: Future Applications for Analysis and Operations 6 3. About the TIN Project 8 4. Insights from TIN Questions 10 5. Lessons Learned in Developing and Managing a TIN 30 6. Conclusion and Looking Ahead 44 Appendix 1. TIN Discussion Question 5: Are there Lessons from Counterinsurgency Doctrine that Can and Should Be Applied to Counterterrorism? 45 Appendix 2. TIN Briefings 53 Appendix 3. Social Networks: The Distributed Trusted Relationship 54 Appendix 4. Technology and Concepts for Using the TIN to Enhance Alternative and Open Source Analysis 58 Appendix 5. Social Software for Distributed Collaborative Work 67 About the Authors 76 iii Project Participants Authors Zeyno Baran Arnaud de Borchgrave Hudson Institute CSIS Charles Cogan Thomas Sanderson Harvard University CSIS Anoush Ehteshami Jacqueline Harned Durham University CSIS Avishag Gordon Israel Institute of Technology Core Advisory Group James Harris Aaron Frank CENTRA Technology BAE Systems Mark Huband Timothy Galpin Author, Brutal Truths, Fragile Myths Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Heidi Huuhtanen Laboratory Finnish Institute for International Aimee Ibrahim-David Affairs DeticaDFI Percy Lehning Jeff Jonas Erasmus University Rotterdam IBM Analytica Jean-Luc Marret John MacGaffin Fondation pour la Recherché CENTRA Technology/CSIS Strategique; SAIS, Johns Hopkins Richard O’Neill University The Highlands Group, Inc. Magnus Ranstorp Suzanne Spaulding Swedish Defence College Bingham McCutchen, LLP Michael Taarnby Jonathan Winer Danish Institute of International Alston & Bird Affairs TIN Participants Scott Atran Centre National de la Recherché Scientifique, Paris; University of Michigan Maha Azzam Chatham House iv Foreword Radical expansion and modernization of open source exploitation is an important reform for the intelligence community. The director of national intelligence (DNI) has given top priority to open sources. Eliot Jardines, assistant deputy director of national intelligence for open source, and Douglas Naquin, director of the Open Source Center, have implemented new policies, leapfrogging into the world of 1 billion people online. Exploiting the information cacophony is the challenge. The current U.S. National Intelligence Strategy outlines five mission objectives and ten enterprise objectives to help transform intelligence work. One mission objective is to “develop innovative ways to penetrate and analyze the most difficult targets.” One of the enterprise objectives is to “strengthen analytic expertise, methods, and practices; tap expertise wherever it resides; and explore alternative analytic views.” By operating a global Trusted Information Network (TIN), devoted to critical threat issues, the CSIS Transnational Threats Project has helped meet these vital objectives. The TIN demonstrated that structured interaction with nongovern- mental “experts on the periphery” can provide innovative, alternative analysis and perspectives. Islamist extremism in Europe was explored by internationally recognized experts. Daily events in Europe illustrate that al Qaeda–inspired terrorists continue to proliferate among Muslims. Iraq has become a powerful recruitment poster for jihadi volunteers from Europe and beyond. The Internet, where a virtual caliphate has been created in cyberspace, is used to proselytize, recruit, radicalize, fund raise, and plot acts of terrorism. The mani- festations of Islamist extremism in Europe range from youngsters, who reject gov- ernment and academic attempts at multiculturalism, to radical imams, who influ- ence their congregations against their host countries, to converts to fundamental- ism, who believe the United States and its allies are on a crusade to destroy Islam. TIN members, in a collaborative online setting, have brought forth fresh information and perceptions about the extremists’ route to violence and their aspirations. Legacy security rules on outreach to nongovernmental experts are distinctly incompatible with knowledge building—and knowledge sharing—in the information age. Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, has taken major steps to alter the intelligence culture by building online libraries and launching variations of Wikipedia and MySpace. The CSIS Transnational Threats Project and its Trusted Information Network aim to do their part to expand information sources and strengthen alternative analysis. Judge William H. Webster Chair CSIS Transnational Threats Project v Moderator’s Note The CSIS Transnational Threats Project has conducted an open source program for over two years, the most recent period marked by the operation of a Trusted Information Network (TIN). TIN participants engaged in scores of discussions in an online collaborative discussion forum, generating dozens of novel but related exchanges on the terrorist threat in Europe. Participants submitted very timely and detailed research and resources into the discussion space—even prior to publication in scholarly journals, newspapers, or other media outlets. Former intelligence officers participating in the TIN indicated that the information was highly valuable and that the structured engagement of outside expertise should be embraced by governments. A summary of the highlights and challenges follows. Highlights Successful launch and operation for one year of an open source counterterrorism network across several time zones, work schedules, and cultures Rapid delivery of relevant, ongoing fieldwork and open source information to the TIN Important insights generated from members with on-the-ground experience Effective vetting of sources and information by the TIN’s organizationally independent, intellectually competitive members Easy sharing, quick responses, and frank exchanges afforded by dynamic network Exposure of the TIN model to a wide range of U.S. and foreign intelligence and law enforcement officials, who expressed great interest in the TIN process and its substantive results Challenges Incentivizing all members to maintain regular engagement Overcoming issues with using the collaborative software
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