Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

SECTION 18.0 – SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

18.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ...... 18-1 18.1 Introduction ...... 18-1 18.1.1 Key Issues ...... 18-1 18.2 Methods ...... 18-3 18.2.1 Temporal Boundaries ...... 18-3 18.2.2 Spatial Boundary ...... 18-4 18.2.3 Modelling ...... 18-4 18.2.4 Analysis ...... 18-7 18.2.5 Assessment Criteria ...... 18-8 18.3 Baseline Case ...... 18-9 18.3.1 Socio-economic Overview of Alberta Oil Sands ...... 18-9 18.3.2 Government of Alberta Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs ...... 18-14 18.3.3 Industry’s Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs ...... 18-19 18.3.4 Syncrude Initiatives and Programs ...... 18-20 18.3.5 Labour Force Indicators, Earnings and Income ...... 18-26 18.3.6 Population ...... 18-30 18.3.7 Education ...... 18-31 18.3.8 Housing ...... 18-35 18.3.9 Utilities ...... 18-37 18.3.10 Protective Services ...... 18-38 18.3.11 Health ...... 18-42 18.3.12 Recreation and Leisure Facilities ...... 18-43 18.3.13 Social Services ...... 18-45 18.3.14 Aboriginal Benefits ...... 18-45 18.4 Application Case ...... 18-55 18.4.1 Project Summary ...... 18-55 18.4.2 Economic Effects ...... 18-57 18.4.3 Aboriginal Benefits ...... 18-69 18.4.4 Population Effects ...... 18-70 18.4.5 Effects on Education Services ...... 18-72 18.4.6 Effects on Housing Services ...... 18-72 18.4.7 Effects on Utilities Services ...... 18-73 18.4.8 Effects on Protective Services ...... 18-74 18.4.9 Effects on Health Services ...... 18-76 18.4.10 Effects on Recreation and Leisure Services ...... 18-76 18.4.11 Effects on Social Services ...... 18-77

Table of Contents Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont)

PAGE 18.4.12 Closure ...... 18-78 18.4.13 Application Case Summary ...... 18-78 18.4.14 Mitigation and Monitoring ...... 18-78 18.5 Planned Development Case ...... 18-78 18.5.1 Pre-production Phase ...... 18-78 18.5.2 Operations ...... 18-82 18.6 Summary ...... 18-83 18.7 References ...... 18-84

LIST OF TABLES

Table 18.1-1: Valued Socio-Economic Components and Indicators ...... 18-3 Table 18.2-1: Social and Economic Effect Attribute Definitions ...... 18-8 Table 18.3-1: List of Syncrude Industry and Governmental Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs ...... 18-26 Table 18.3-2: Labour Force Indicators in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta and Canada (2006) ...... 18-27 Table 18.3-3: Labour Force by Industry in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006) ...... 18-28 Table 18.3-4: Number of Active Companies in Fort McMurray by Type ...... 18-29 Table 18.3-5: Population Count for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo ...... 18-30 Table 18.3-6: Population Growth in the RMWB from 2000 to 2012 ...... 18-31 Table 18.3-7: Education Profile for the RMWB and Alberta (2006) ...... 18-32 Table 18.3-8: Total Crime Rates in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (2013) ...... 18-40 Table 18.3-9: Profile of First Nations Communities in the Socio-economic Study Area ...... 18-46 Table 18.3-10: Fort McMurray First Nation #468 Reserves ...... 18-46 Table 18.3-11: Fort McKay First Nation Reserves ...... 18-47 Table 18.3-12: Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation ...... 18-47 Table 18.3-13: Mikisew Cree First Nation...... 18-48 Table 18.3-14: Chipewyan Prairie Dené First Nation ...... 18-48 Table 18.3-15: Economic Indicators for the Aboriginal Population in the RMWB and Alberta (2006) ...... 18-49 Table 18.3-16: Education Profile for the Aboriginal Population in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006) ...... 18-53 Table 18.4-1: Project Pre-production Costs ...... 18-56 Table 18.4-2: Project Operations Costs ...... 18-56 Table 18.4-3: Pre-production Phase Economic Effects on GDP, Income and Employment at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels ...... 18-59

Table of Contents Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont)

PAGE Table 18.4-4: Operations Phase Economic Effects on GDP, Income and Employment at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels ...... 18-61 Table 18.4-5: Pre-production Phase Effects on Federal, Provincial and Municipal Taxes in Alberta and Rest of Canada ...... 18-62 Table 18.4-6: Operations Phase Effects on Federal, Provincial and Municipal Taxes in Alberta and Rest of Canada ...... 18-63 Table 18.4-7: MLX Project Construction Effects by Industry at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels (Open Model: Direct and Indirect) ...... 18-65 Table 18.4-8: MLX Project Operations Effects by Industry at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels (Open Model: Direct and Indirect) ...... 18-66 Table 18.4-9: Summary of Application Case Effects ...... 18-79 Table 18.4-10: Summary of Proposed Mitigation and Monitoring ...... 18-80 Table 18.5-1: Summary of Planned Development Case Effects ...... 18-83

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 18.2-1: Socio-economic Study Area (SESA) ...... 18-5 Figure 18.3-1: Values of Oil Sands Investments in Alberta and RMWB (in Million Dollars) .. 18-10 Figure 18.3-2: Projections of New Oil Sands Jobs by Source over the Coming Decade ...... 18-13 Figure 18.3-3: Syncrude Total Expenditures by Category ...... 18-25 Figure 18.3-4: Syncrude Aboriginal Workforce (2007-2012) ...... 18-51 Figure 18.3-5: Syncrude Procurement with Aboriginal Owned Companies ...... 18-52

Table of Contents Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

18.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 18.1 Introduction The Syncrude Mildred Lake Project development consists of integrated mining, extraction, froth treatment, and upgrading operations and supporting facilities. The Mildred Lake North Mine (North Mine) is currently the only active mining area at the Mildred Lake site.

Syncrude proposes to develop two additional mining areas within and adjacent to Mildred Lake, collectively described as the Mildred Lake Extension Project (MLX Project). The MLX Project is intended to achieve the following:  maintaining bitumen production levels from the Mildred Lake site subsequent to depletion of the North Mine; and  maximize development of recoverable resource at the Mildred Lake leases prior to decommissioning of the Mildred Lake ore processing and extraction facilities.

This section describes socio-economic conditions and effects of the proposed MLX Project. The socio-economic impact assessment (SEIA) examines the social and economic effects that could result from pre-production and operations of the Project. The potential effects of the MLX Project on the Province of Alberta and, more specifically, on the socio-economic study area (SESA) are analyzed. Current social and economic conditions in the SESA are described and the capacity of major services, as well as any expansion plans, is discussed. Opportunities to mitigate potential negative effects and to enhance positive effects are identified. The potential effects of the Project on regional social and economic conditions are described in the context of cumulative developments.

18.1.1 Key Issues 18.1.1.1 Socio-economic Issues Identification Socio-economic issues related to construction and operations of the MLX Project were identified through:  the ongoing public consultation process;  Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (ESRD) Terms of Reference (Volume 1, Attachment 1);  AER Directive 023: Guidelines Respecting an Application for a Commercial Crude Bitumen Recovery and Upgrading Project;

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 review of relevant governmental initiatives in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB) including:  Responsible Actions – a 20-year strategic plan for Alberta's oil sands, released in 2009;  Comprehensive Regional Infrastructure Sustainability Plans (CRISPs), released in 2011; and  The Lower Athabasca Regional Plan (LARP), released in 2012.  review of recent socio-economic assessments prepared for oil sands projects in the SESA; and  previous experience with similar oil sands development projects in the study area and common supplemental information requests.

The socio-economic issues include:  the extent of economic investment in the RMWB, and the extent to which local residents participate in the employment and business opportunities associated with the Project;  changes in population;  changes in education and training conditions and demand for education and training services;  changes in the housing market;  changes in the demand for utility services;  changes in protective conditions and the demand for protective services;  changes in health conditions and the demand for health services;  changes in the demand for community recreation and leisure facilities and services;  changes in the demand for social services;  changes in the demand for transportation and traffic (discussed separately in the Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) section); and  changes in Aboriginal community employment and business opportunities.

18.1.1.2 Valued Socio-Economic Components and Key Indicators In preparation of this SEIA, valued socio-economic components (VSCs) were defined based on prior experience with similar oil sands development projects in the RMWB. The VSCs guided the data collection, analysis and organization of this section. Table 18.1-1 presents the socio- economic VSCs in the study area and their indicators.

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Table 18.1-1: Valued Socio-Economic Components and Indicators

VSC Indicator Economy • Economic investment in the RMWB. • Labour force indicators (participation rate, employment and unemployment). • Earnings and income (percentages of people 15 years and older with earnings and income and median earnings and income). Population • Population estimates and Population growth. Education and training services • School capacity and enrolment. • Industry training. • Education attainment. Housing • Housing availability and affordability. Protective Services • Fire protection services availability and capacity. • Emergency services availability and capacity. • Police services availability and capacity. • Crime rates. Health • Health conditions. Recreation and Leisure Services • Recreation services availability and capacity. Social Services • Social services availability and capacity. Utilities • Utilities capacity and availability. Traffic and Transportation • Average annual daily traffic, Average summer daily traffic See more information in the Traffic impact assessment (TIA). Aboriginal Benefits • Education Attainment • Aboriginal community employment and business opportunities.

Socio-economic indicators for the MLX Project were identified through:  the Aboriginal consultation and public engagement process;  indicators defined in the Terms of Reference; and  a review of recent SEIAs prepared for oil sands projects in the RMWB.

The assessment is organized such that baseline conditions and assessment of potential impacts are discussed by VSC, with intent to provide the reader with an overall perspective of anticipated changes to each VSC in the SESA.

18.2 Methods 18.2.1 Temporal Boundaries The SEIA assessed potential MLX Project impacts associated with pre-production and operations. It was based on the MLX Project schedule, with pre-production starting in 2018 and operations in 2023, through 2064.

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18.2.2 Spatial Boundary The MLX Project is located approximately 30 km north of Fort McMurray, Alberta. The SESA was selected to consider both regional interests and interests of the communities in proximity to the MLX Project. The SESA encompassed the RMWB, as well as First Nation reserves located within the Wood Buffalo Census Agglomeration area (Figure 18.2-1). Social and economic data are available from both Statistics Canada and the RMWB Census. First Nations communities included in this assessment are: • Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation (ACFN); • Mikisew Cree First Nation (MCFN); • Fort McKay First Nation; • Fort McMurray First Nation #468 (FMFN #468); and • Chipewyan Prairie Dené First Nation (CPDFN).

Métis Communities included in the assessment are: • Fort Chipewyan Métis Local #125; • Fort McKay Métis Local 63; • Fort McMurray Métis Local #1935; and • Fort McMurray Métis Local #2020.

18.2.2.1 Baseline Data Collection Methods Both primary and secondary baseline data were collected. Primary data were collected through in-person and phone interviews with various public officials and representatives of governmental service providers in the SESA. In addition, the MLX Project description and Syncrude operational polices were reviewed and analyzed.

Secondary data were collected from various governmental websites, particularly: Statistics Canada, Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC), Government of Alberta, the RMWB, and the Petroleum Human Resources Council. In addition, environmental impact assessment studies for oil sands development in the RMWB were reviewed.

Unlike other biophysical disciplines, the socio-economic baseline conditions included current baseline conditions as well as approved community services and infrastructure expansion plans in the defined SESA.

18.2.3 Modelling 18.2.3.1 Statistics Canada Input-Output Model In order to calculate the economic effects of the proposed MLX Project, the Statistics Canada Input-Output Model (IO Model) was used. The IO Model is developed by the Industry Accounts Division of Statistics Canada. The model measures the detailed industrial impacts on output, gross domestic product (GDP), labour income and employment by province of a given investment to the economy.

Page 18-4 300000 400000 500000 Legend Northwest Territories Thabacha Nare 196A Park/Protected Area Alberta Open Water K'I Tue 196D Tsu Tue 196G ± Thebathi 196 Indian Reserve (! Li Deze 196C Charles Lake 225 The Jere Ghaili 196B Fort Fitzgerald Lac La Biche County Tsu K'Adhe Tue 196F MD of Opportunity No. 17 Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Hokedhe Tue 196E Cornwall Lake 224 Municipal Boundary Collin Lake Hay Camp (! 223 Watercourse Colin-Cornwall Lakes Wildland 6600000 Railway Provincial Park Road Caribou Mountains Wood Buffalo Wildland Winter Road National Park La Butte Creek Wildland Provincial Park Provincial Park Lake (! Community/Urban Area Peace Point Athabasca (! (! Métis Local Peace Point No.222 Athabasca o Airport/Aerodrome Carlson Landing Sandy Point Sand Dunes (! 221 Provincial Park Project Location Sweet Grass Landing(! 5! East Pit Allison Bay Fidler-Greywillow Wildland 5! West Pit 219 Garden Creek Devil's Gate 220 Provincial Park (! Dog Head 218 (! Little Fishery (! (! Fort Chipewyan Lake (! Fifth Meridian Claire Quatre Fourches 6500000 Fox Lake Chipewyan (! Fox Lake 201, 201A, 201B, (! 162 Embarras Portage (! 201C, 201D, 201E (! (! Little Red River Old Fort 217 Jackfish Vermilion Chutes Embarras Maybelle River Wildland (! Provincial Park

Richardson River Athabasca Dunes Dunes Wildland Ecological Reserve Chipewyan 201F Provincial Park

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R Wildland 6400000

Provincial Park a c Birch Mountains Wildland s a Provincial Park Namur River b a h 174A, 174B t A Fort McKay 174, Bitumount o(! 174C, 174D Canterra Road Albian Firebag Aerodrome Aerodrome o Marguerite River Saskatchewan Fort MacKay East Athabasca Wildland o Provincial Park ent\Fig 18.02-01 SESA.mxd 18.02-01 ent\Fig (! Highway Alberta Fort McKay Métis Local 63 (! Mildred Lake 5! (! o5! La Saline (! !63 Natural Area Chipewyan Lake Whitemud Saprae Creek Estates Falls Draper Wildland Fort McMurray r Provincial 6300000 Peerless Lake e at Rive Park Clearwater (! rw r (! Fort McMurray Métis Local 1935 (! ea River Cl (! (! Provincial Grand Rapids Wildland o 69 Clearwater 175 Park Provincial Park Fort McMurray ! Gipsy Lake (! Airport Wildland Trout Lake Gregoire Lake Provincial Park Provincial Park Gregoire Lake Estates(! Hangingstone (! Anzac Recreation Area Gregoire Lake Maqua Lake Recreation Area 176, 176A, 176B Stony Mountain Clearwater Engstrom Lake River Dene r Wildland e Band #221 v Recreation Area i Provincial Park R !881 Wabasca-Desmarais

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a (!

b Lake 194A 6200000

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(!A Crow Lake 166B, 166C, 166D Janvier Projection: UTM Zone 12 NAD83 Provincial Park Note: Sources: AB Municipal Affairs, AB TPR, GeoBase®, Conklin Winefred Spatial Data Warehouse Ltd., Syncrude. (! Lake 194B !63 Winefred 300306015 Lake Otter-Orloff Lakes Wildland Provincial Park Kilometres 1:2,250,000

DATE: PROVIDED BY: June 2014 AMEC Socio-economic Study Area ANALYST: QA/QC: FINAL MAPPING BY: JH KW RT EH AMEC

MLX Project (SESA) Fig 18.02-01 SESA 14-06-17 Figure 18.2-1 Path: S:\Gis\Projects\CE\Syncrude_MLX\CE04183_MLX_EIA\ArcGIS\ApplicationReportFigures\Vol 2 Section 18 - Socio-Economic Assessm 18 Socio-Economic - 2 Section S:\Gis\Projects\CE\Syncrude_MLX\CE04183_MLX_EIA\ArcGIS\ApplicationReportFigures\Vol Path: Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

The parameters used in the simulations are derived from the most recently published Input- Output Accounts (2010), which are usually published with a three-year lag. The IO Model is normally used to analyze the link between final demand and industrial output levels. Two versions of the model are available: the national and the inter-provincial. In this assessment, and for additional details of Project’s economic effects on both Alberta and rest of Canada, the inter-provincial version was used (Statistics Canada 2011).

18.2.3.2 Input-Output Model Assumptions and Limitations The IO model assumptions and limitations include:  the IO Model is a structural model dealing primarily with resource allocation in the economy corresponding to an exogenously given demand. It does not provide an exact measure of the impact of an investment on the level of use of resources in the economy. The assessment of the impact of a shock on the level of resource utilization should be complemented by professional judgment on the part of the users based on knowledge of major macroeconomic links in the Canadian economy and a good factual knowledge of the business cycle phase in which the economy is evolving;  the IO Model is based on the assumption of fixed technological coefficients. It does not take into account economies of scale, constraint capacities, technological change, externalities, or price changes. This makes impact analysis less accurate for long term and large impacts as firms adjust their production technology and the IO technological coefficients become outdated. Assuming that firms adjust their production technology over time to become more efficient, the impact of a change in final demand will tend to be overestimated;  the results of the IO Model run include both an Open Model and Closed Model. Total impact in the open model is equal to the sum of the direct and indirect impacts. Total impact in the closed model is equal to the sum of the direct, indirect and induced impacts;  the impact results can be separated into direct, indirect and induced effects. Direct impacts are the deliveries by domestic industries and imports necessary to satisfy final demand of expenditures on products and services. Indirect impacts cover upstream economic activities associated with supplying intermediate inputs (the current expenditures on goods and services used up in the production process) to the directly impacted industries. Induced impacts provide an estimate of the domestic production and imports associated with the spending of wages on consumption; and  it is generally acknowledged that the open model underestimates economic impacts since household activity is absent and the closed model overestimates economic impacts because of the rigid assumptions about labour incomes and consumer spending. Modelled impacts should therefore be considered as the upper and lower bounds of impact.

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18.2.4 Analysis 18.2.4.1 Economic Effects Analysis Methods The economic analysis assessed Project effects at the regional and provincial scale. The approach used was as follows:  describe current economic conditions in the SESA and compare them with provincial conditions. The description included economic indicators, as well as quantitative and qualitative information on labour force indicators, occupations and incomes;  consider the potential changes that could take place in the regional economy and in Alberta as a result of the MLX Project;  identify economic effects on the Province of Alberta and rest of Canada using the IO Model;  apply the assessment criteria to define the magnitude, duration, geographic area, direction and confidence level of identified effects; and  identify appropriate mitigation and management measures that are expected to reduce negative effects and promote the positive effects of the Project.

18.2.4.2 Social Effects Analysis Methods The following approach was used to conduct the social effects analysis.  describe the current social conditions in the SESA, and compare them where appropriate with provincial norms and averages. Descriptions include social indicators, and quantitative and qualitative information;  consider the potential changes in conditions within the SESA as a result of the Project;  identify social effects based on the potential changes in the SESA;  apply the assessment criteria to define the magnitude, duration, geographic area, direction and confidence level of identified effects; and  propose appropriate mitigation measures that are likely to reduce negative effects and promote the positive effects of the Project.

18.2.4.3 Planned Development Effects Analysis Methods Unlike other biophysical disciplines in this Application, SEIA standard practice in assessing potential effects on socio-economic conditions is to evaluate MLX Project-related effects in the context of current conditions and future trends. This requires identifying other infrastructure development activities that may occur in the region, and assessing the incremental effects that the MLX Project may have. Therefore, the SEIA is inherently future-oriented.

However, in order to produce a focused assessment of planned development, the following approach was used:  identify a list of approved and planned oil sands projects in close proximity to the MLX Project;

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 discuss the sensitivity of the selected VSCs to these cumulative influences, particularly with respect to temporal overlaps;  identify socio-economic effects based on the potential changes in the SESA;  apply the assessment criteria to define the magnitude, duration, geographic area, direction, and confidence level of identified effects; and  propose appropriate mitigation measures that are likely to reduce negative effects and promote the positive effects of the MLX Project.

18.2.5 Assessment Criteria Anticipated changes in the socio-economic environment were evaluated using the criteria in Table 18.2-1. One notable difference for the socio-economic assessment compared to Volume 2, Section 3.3, is that neutral direction effects were rated for all other attributes.

Table 18.2-1: Social and Economic Effect Attribute Definitions

Attribute Definition Direction Negative Effect is worsening or is undesirable Neutral Effect is not changing compared with baseline conditions and trends Positive Effect is improving or is desirable Geographic Extent Local Effect will be limited to specific persons or communities Regional Effect is limited to the SESA Provincial Effect extends beyond the SESA or includes effects at a provincial level (Alberta) National Effects extends outside Alberta or nationally Magnitude Low Effect that occurs and might or might not be detectable, but is within the normal range of variability Moderate Effect is detectible but is unlikely to pose a serious risk to the VSC or to represent a management challenge High Effect is likely to pose a serious risk to the selected VSC and is a management challenge Duration Short Term Effect is limited to the pre-production period Long Term Effect occurs during operations period Confidence Poor No clear understanding of cause and effect because of lack of relevant information base Moderate Moderate understanding of cause and effect from existing knowledge base, but potential for site and time-specific variability and/or moderate site-specific data available, but limited predictive ability due to variability over time and/or space Good High understanding of cause and effect from existing knowledge base and/or high site-specific data available and limited potential for site and/or time-specific variability Final Effect Rating Low This is based upon professional judgment and takes into account the various rankings for each Moderate attribute (direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, likelihood, reversibility, and confidence) following the application of mitigative measures High

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For assessment of each VSC, an overall effect rating of low, moderate or high was determined based upon professional judgment that takes into account the various rankings for each attribute (direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration and confidence). Final (residual) effect ratings are discussed at the end of each VSC’s assessment.

18.3 Baseline Case 18.3.1 Socio-economic Overview of Alberta Oil Sands Canada has proven reserves of 173 billion barrels of oil. Of that total, 170 billion barrels are located in Alberta, and about 168 billion barrels are recoverable from bitumen. There are three major bitumen (or oil sands) deposits in Alberta. The largest is the Athabasca deposit, located in the province’s northeast in the RMWB, where the MLX Project is located. The main population centre of the Athabasca deposit is Fort McMurray. In 2012, 52% of the province’s oil sands production volume used in-situ mining methods (GoA 2014a).

The community of Fort McMurray is the commercial and administrative centre for the RMWB and the oil sands region. During the expansion of oil sands mining in the RMWB, Fort McMurray transformed from a small northern service centre to a modern urban community. During this transition, additional pressure was put on the limited infrastructure and community services. As a result Fort McMurray became a “boomtown”, with the affiliated cost escalation and quality-of- life issues. Major challenges include:  inadequate infrastructure for the growing population;  inadequate community services for the growing population;  short supply in housing and expensive rental rates; and  difficulty in attracting and retaining workers for occupations apart from oil sands exploration and development (including health care workers, teachers and municipal employees) (IHS CERA 2009).

In the Province of Alberta, there were 69 new oil sands projects at different stages: announced, proposed or under construction, as of April 2014. The total estimated value was $126,569 million. Of that total, six projects with a total value of $3,458 million were announced, 39 projects were proposed with an estimated value of $60,025 million, 20 projects were under construction with an estimated value of $58,266 million, and two projects were nearing completion with an estimated value of $2,925 million. Two projects worth $1,895 million were identified as being on hold (Alberta Enterprise and Advanced Education 2014).

In the RMWB, there were 40 oil sands projects either announced, proposed or under construction. The total estimated value of these projects was estimated at $89,978 million. Of that total, two projects with a value of $150 million were announced, 23 projects with a value of $48,857 million were proposed, 12 projects with a value of $36,376 million were under construction, and one project with an estimated value of $2,700 million were nearing completion. Two oil sands projects in the RMWB worth $1,895 million were identified as being on hold (Alberta Enterprise and Advanced Education 2014) (Figure 18.3-1).

Page 18-9 Path: S:\Gis\Projects\CE\Syncrude_MLX\CE04183_MLX_EIA\CorelDraw\ApplicationReportFigures\Vol 2 - Socio-Economic Impact Assessment\Fig18.03-01 Value of OS Projects.cdr Sources: Alberta Enterprise and Advanced Education 2013. Education Advanced and Enterprise Alberta Sources: Note: 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0

Announced $M Announced 3,458 150

60,025 Proposed Proposed $M MLX Project 48,857

Under Construction $M Under Construction 58,266 Alberta andRMWB (inMillion Dollars)

36,376 Values of Oil Sands Investments in

Nearing Completion $M Nearing Completion 2,925

2,700

1,895 On Hold On $M

ANALYST: DATE: June 2014 JH OS Projects 14-06-02 Fig18.03-01 Value of 1,895

QA/QC:

KW RT EH PROVIDED BY: PROVIDED FINAL MAPPING BY: MAPPING FINAL Figure 18.3-1 RMWB RMWB Alberta

AMEC AMEC Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

18.3.1.1 Labour Supply in the Construction Industry Information from the Construction Sector Council (CSC) suggests that over 30% of the construction industry's core workforce is expected to retire within the next decade, at the same time as traditional labour pools decline (CSC 2012).

The CSC’s annual Construction Looking Forward offers a detailed nine-year scenario of workforce supply and demand by trade, province and region. The following findings are provided for the construction labour markets from 2012 to 2020 in Alberta:  Alberta’s construction industry returned to the record high peak levels of activity reached between 2006 and 2008, with projections surpassing previous peak employment requirements by 2015;  meeting near-term labour requirements depends on the industry's ability to draw in an equivalent number of out-of-province workers to replace the number that exited during the 2009 recession;  the expected expansion by 2015 will once again test the capacity of the industry’s workforce, as growing residential and non-residential building construction requirements will add to a second wave of major natural resource-related engineering projects; and  the ability of Alberta’s construction industry to recruit for the oil sands, pipelines, utilities and other industrial projects depends on the mobility of key trades and on competing demands from other major resource-based projects across Canada (CSC 2012).

According to this study, construction labour force requirements in Alberta are expected to rise by 37,500 workers between the years 2012 to 2020 in response to expansion demand. These requirements coincide with an increase in replacement demand related to the expected retirement of 34,000 workers. An estimated 27,500 new entrants will enter the workforce to partially fill the increase in labour requirements. From this perspective, across the decade, the local construction workforce will need to attract an additional 44,500 new workers from outside the industry to meet total labour requirements.

This increase in labour demand will be a major challenge for Alberta’s construction industry. Industry and government have worked together and developed effective tools to meet construction labour requirements, but much may depend on the labour demands in other provinces. Construction Looking Forward scenarios in other provinces detail some significant demands in almost every year from 2012 to 2020 for the key trades and occupations that have high demand in Alberta (CSC 2012).

The CSC Labour Market Rankings measure labour supply conditions without considering the potential for workers to move among regions or industries to balance demand and supply. The market rank indicator ranges from a “1” (excess supply, risk of losing workers from the industry) to a “5” (severe shortage of construction workers from local and adjacent markets). A “3” refers to balanced market conditions, where qualified workers are generally available.

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In Alberta, during 2012 to 2020, labour market ranking for trades and occupations in the construction industry reflect “blended” conditions across residential and non-residential sectors. The preliminary analysis for the oil sands illustrate overall tighter market conditions, with several trade rankings increasing from the balanced 3 rank to 4, and some trades move from 4 to 5 – general unavailability to severe shortage (CSC 2012).

Companies are using a mix of attraction and retention practices to deal with worker shortages and competition for labour, particularly in the in-situ oil sands market. Partnerships with organizations and programs that target underutilized labour pools, such as youth, women, immigrants or Aboriginal groups, are seen as a good practice to attract new workers. Currently, and despite growth, the overall petroleum industry demographics did not change as the percentages of female, immigrant and Aboriginal participation in the petroleum workforce remained close to 2001 levels. The high demands for qualified workers, together with improving company competitiveness, safety requirements, and future growth expectations, is driving increased training requirements. Retention practices vary and a common objective is to retain baby boomers. Companies are offering retired and retiring staff either consulting contracts or flexible work arrangements to retain them longer. In addition, companies are considering different levels of knowledge retention transfer programs to manage baby boomer retirement (Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada 2011).

18.3.1.2 Labour Supply in the Oil Sands Industry In May 2014, direct construction and operations jobs in oil sands reached 72, 810 jobs. Over the next decade, the total number of jobs is expected to reach 98,380 jobs. Attrition will create significant job openings as 37,500 construction skilled workers and 6,380 oil sands operation workers in Alberta could potentially retire during the projected period.

By the end of 2014, it is expected that the combined workforce required for onsite oil sands construction and turnaround and ongoing maintenance will increase to about 48,710 workers. Jobs required to support onsite construction, turnaround and ongoing maintenance projects will grow to about 56,900 jobs in 2020 (accounting for a 17% increase) with a peak of about 59,390 jobs in 2019 (Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada 2013) (Figure 18.3-2).

18.3.1.3 Revenues in the Socio-economic Study Area The RMWB has seven major sources of revenue: property taxes, grants in lieu of taxes, sales of goods/services to other governments, sales of goods/services, revenue from own sources, conditional transfers/grants, and other transfers. The 2014 approved budget and financial plan lists total revenue in the RMWB for the year as $706.4 million. Property taxes account for 85% of total revenue to the Municipality, with 91% of property taxes derived from rural non residential sources (RMWB 2014a).

Page 18-12 Path: S:\Gis\Projects\CE\Syncrude_MLX\CE04183_MLX_EIA\CorelDraw\ApplicationReportFigures\Vol 2 Section 18 - Socio-Economic Impact Assessment\Fig18.03-02 Oil Sands Jobs.cdr Source: Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada 2013. Canada of Council Resources Human Petroleum Source: Note: 9350 6350 MLX Project 5950 15 by Source overthe Coming Decade Projections ofNewOilSandsJobs oeRtrmnsTurnover Retirements None to due Hiring Additional Retirements Workforce to due Hiring Additional Jobs New Direct Non-retirement Turnover ANALYST: DATE: October 2014 Fig18.03-02 OilSandsJobs CF QA/QC: 14-11-06 KW RT EH PROVIDED BY: PROVIDED FINAL MAPPING BY: MAPPING FINAL Figure 18.3-2 AMEC AMEC Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014

18.3.2 Government of Alberta Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs Between 2008 and 2012, the Government of Alberta, at various levels, responded to the need for infrastructure expansion to meet the anticipated population growth in the oil sands region through the following:  Responsible Actions – a 20-year strategic plan for Alberta's oil sands, released in 2009;  Comprehensive Regional Infrastructure Sustainability Plans (CRISPs), released in 2011; and  The Lower Athabasca Regional Plan (LARP), released in 2012.

The above three governmental initiatives integrate to serve the same purpose, the development of Alberta oil sands in a responsible and sustainable manner. For example, the development of each CRISP (Athabasca, Cold Lake, Peace River) will assist in achieving the province’s new vision for oil sands outlined in Responsible Actions: A Plan for Alberta’s Oil Sands. It is a key implementation activity under Strategy 2, which is to “Promote healthy communities and a quality of life that attracts and retains individuals, families and businesses.”

Regional plans developed under the Land-use Framework, such as the LARP, set the broad vision and objectives for environmental, social and economic aspects of the region. The focus of this regional planning is much broader in scope and is at a much less detailed level than CRISPs, which are specific to infrastructure. There will be alignment between these various levels of planning, particularly in relation to multi-use corridors and areas for future urban expansion. The planning assumptions regarding oil sand production levels for the Athabasca Oil Sands Area and the Cold Lake Oil Sands Area CRISPs are aligned with those in the LARP Terms of Reference (GoA 2011a).

The below sections include a brief description of each of the three governmental initiatives including relevant socio-economic progress and important achievements thus far.

18.3.2.1 Responsible Actions The 20-year strategic plan for Alberta’s oil sands aims to reduce the environmental footprint, optimize economic growth and increase the quality of life in Alberta’s oil sands regions. The plan provides a platform to balance oil sands development with environmental protection, social responsibility and economic success. The plan outlines six strategies, three of which focus on social and economic growth as follows:  Strategy 2: Promote healthy communities and a quality of life that attracts and retains individuals, families and businesses;  Strategy 3: Maximize long-term value for all Albertans through economic growth, stability and resource optimization; and  Strategy 4: Strengthen our proactive approach to Aboriginal consultation with a view to reconciling interests.

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Three years after the release of Responsible Actions, more than 50 projects and initiatives are underway. Short, medium and long-term outcomes have been set to help guide the government’s efforts to balance environmental, social and economic impacts of oil sands development. The short-term desired outcomes target oil sands as being managed strategically and regionally, allowing the province increased capability to achieve its value-added and environmental goals.

The medium-term desired outcomes target new milestones for environmental stewardship as being met through development and full scale implementation of breakthrough technologies; community growth being accomplished in a more proactive and planned manner; and oil sands growth being consistent with the Land-use Framework regional plans and contributing to further industrial development in Alberta.

The long-term desired outcomes target 30% of the oil sands deposits being considered recoverable reserves with a reduced overall environmental impact with maximized value; significant value-added processing occurring; and Alberta being positioned as an internationally- recognized refined product and petrochemicals hub (GoA 2011b).

Between 2006 and 2011, the Government of Alberta spent nearly $1.8 billion on infrastructure projects in the Athabasca Oil Sands Area, where the MLX Project is located, to help build sustainable communities. Projects included three new schools, the Athabasca River Bridge, important interchanges, the twinning of Highway 63, and improvements to water and sewage facilities.

Important achievements and activities from Year 3 (2011) of the plan at the ‘strategy’ level include the following:  Strategy 2 – Planning for future infrastructure development: CRISPs were drafted to establish a framework for infrastructure development in Alberta’s three oil sands areas. Both the Athabasca Plan and the Cold Lake Oil Sands Area Plan are now available, and the Peace River Oil Sands Area Plan is underway.  Strategy 2 – Supporting community growth: As part of ongoing efforts to help Fort McMurray manage growth pressures resulting from oil sands development, the Alberta government will continue to make more land available for residential, commercial and industrial development. A plan is being developed for a Fort McMurray Urban Development Sub-Region to facilitate timely land release over the long term. The subregion will be a provincially designated area of crown land surrounding the Fort McMurray Urban Service Area that will enable the community to keep pace with the demand for residential, commercial, industrial and institutional land for 20 to 30 years.  Strategy 2 – Cultural initiatives: The Alberta government provided more than $300,000 in 2011 for seven projects to enhance historical preservation, youth services and recreational opportunities in the Fort McMurray area.

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 Strategy 2 – Continuing to invest in safety plans to improve public safety in oil sands regions: The Alberta government and municipalities in the Highway 63 region teamed up to improve driver safety and enhance emergency services. The joint $1.3 million investment include hiring more full-time emergency responders, developing a regional approach to fire and emergency response, and portable speed indicator devices to alert drivers near emergency scenes. It also includes traffic enforcement, driver awareness, public safety and volunteer recruitment.  Strategy 2 – Supporting healthy communities: The Alberta government is working collaboratively with the community of Fort MacKay to design and implement a community health assessment. Residents in the community will identify their health priorities and will be actively involved in identifying appropriate actions to address those priorities. The process is proposed to be led by the community with the support of government.  Strategy 3 – Encouraging development of new markets for Alberta’s oil sands products: The government of Alberta has initiated meetings with leaders of other markets, such as Asia-Pacific and California, to ensure oil sands products have buyers across the globe.  Strategy 3 – Developing multi-use corridor plans for oil sands regions: Alberta’s Industrial Heartland is a key area, in a central location near the north-south transportation route and in proximity to the industrial and energy hub. Preliminary work has started to clarify options for multi-use corridors. Further work will continue to ensure alignment of these corridors with transportation strategies, future pipeline and electricity transmission corridors, and infrastructure and transportation planning within regional plans.  Strategy 3 – Addressing labour force needs: Looking into the future, the Alberta government is reviewing Building and Educating Tomorrow’s Workforce, Alberta’s comprehensive labour force development strategy, to ensure that industry in the province, including the oil sands sector, will continue to have the necessary labour force to support anticipated economic growth. In 2011, Keyano College expanded its campus to Fort Chipewyan. This new facility will provide training opportunities and help develop the highly skilled trades people needed to work in the oil sands industry.  Strategy 3 – Engaging the Aboriginal workforce: Historically, Aboriginal employment rates in oil sands projects have been lower than non-Aboriginal employment rates, but the gap is narrowing. In 2010, the Oil Sands Developers Group estimated that there were more than 1,700 Aboriginal employees in permanent oil sands jobs in the RMWB, an increase of more than 60% since 1998. The MLA report Connecting the Dots: Aboriginal Workforce and Economic Development in Alberta and subsequent Government of Alberta Response were released in May 2011. These reports identified recommendations for increasing education and skill levels, labour force participation and economic opportunities for Aboriginal people in Alberta. A key part of government’s response is the development of an Aboriginal Workforce Strategy, which will address the workforce and skills training needs and goals of Aboriginal people in Alberta. Planning has begun on this strategy and work will begin soon with Aboriginal communities to create a working structure and approach. A public report on the progress of Connecting the Dots was released in October 2013.

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 Strategy 4 – First Nations Consultation Policy: The review of the Government of Alberta’s First Nations Consultation Policy on Land Management and Resource Development continued through 2014. The comprehensive review process included over a year of gathering input from First Nations, industry and municipal interests. A Consultation Policy that will help manage and develop land and natural resources in a way that respects Treaty rights and meets obligations, while creating a more confident business environment, was released in July 2014.  Strategy 4 – Developing processes for work with First Nations groups: Alberta continues to explore enhancements to consultation processes with the five First Nations in the Athabasca oil sands region that respects Treaty rights and traditional uses. Alberta is committed to consultation with First Nations when potential adverse impacts to Treaty rights resulting from resource development may occur.  Strategy 4 – Pilot project with the Métis Settlements: Initial planning began in 2010 for a long-term pilot project with the Métis Settlements to measure how cumulative effects of resource development may impact Settlement lands. The cumulative effects pilot will come out of new negotiations between Alberta and Métis Settlements to conclude long- term governance and funding arrangements for Métis Settlements. With the help of those new negotiations, this pilot project is expected to be completed by 2019, with study results produced at that time.

18.3.2.2 Comprehensive Regional Infrastructure Sustainability Plan 2011 CRISP includes long-term and collaborative approaches to planning infrastructure in Alberta's three oil sands areas. Each plan establishes a long-term blueprint for future infrastructure development based on possible future oil sands production rates and associated population growth, and enhances the way provincial and municipal governments work and plan together.

CRISPs for the Athabasca and Cold Lake oil sands areas are completed and the CRISP for the Peace River is currently underway. Both the Athabasca and the Cold Lake oil sands regions overlie much of the Lower Athabasca Region. Following is a brief description of the CRISP:  CRISP looks at ways that communities can accommodate growth and cover a wide range of infrastructure including schools, health facilities, water and wastewater treatment, transportation, and multi-use corridors;  at a regional level, planning will be done across municipal boundaries and in collaboration with a number of regional stakeholders;  the scope of these plans are very specific and focuses on infrastructure that is critical to facilitating the further development of the oil sands and increasing quality of life in communities, as well as attracting and retaining workers and their families;  each CRISP provides an opportunity to develop infrastructure in a new way; one that has a lessened impact on the environment, creates vibrant communities and promotes a wide range of economic opportunities to benefit current and future generations;

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 each CRISP provides a set of steps that will guide infrastructure development and keep pace with growth in the area; and  each CRISP makes recommendations to the province’s capital planning process, which considers overall provincial priorities in addition to regional need (Alberta Energy 2014).

18.3.2.3 The Lower Athabasca Regional Plan 2012-2022 LARP 2012-2022 was released in August and took effect in September 2012. It sets the stage for the next 50 years, concentrating on environmental, economic and social actions. Relevant social and economic actions to this study include:  addressing infrastructure challenges and new strategies to plan for urban development around Fort McMurray;  providing year-round tourism and recreational opportunities through the creation of nine new provincial recreational areas, which will have access to campsites, trails and boat docks;  providing certainty for industry in development of the oil sands; and  supporting diversification of the regional economy – recognizes tourism and recreational opportunities, the potential for further responsible development of energy, minerals, coal, surface materials, forestry and agriculture.

In order to achieve its purpose, LARP:  establishes a long-term vision for the region;  aligns provincial policies at the regional level to balance Alberta's economic, environmental and social goals;  reflects ongoing commitment to engage Albertans, including Aboriginal peoples, in land- use planning;  uses a cumulative effects management approach to balance economic development opportunities and social and environmental considerations;  sets desired economic, environmental and social outcomes and objectives for the region;  describes the strategies, actions, approaches and tools required to achieve the desired outcomes and objectives;  establishes monitoring, evaluation and reporting commitments to assess progress; and  provides guidance to provincial and local decision-makers regarding land-use management for the region.

LARP has four key components: Introduction, Strategic Plan, Implementation Plan, and Regulatory Details Plan. The Strategic Plan focuses on:  improving integration of industrial activities;  encouraging timely and progressive reclamation;

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 managing air, water and biodiversity, and minimizing land disturbance;  creating new conservation areas;  strengthening infrastructure planning;  providing new recreation and tourism opportunities; and  including Aboriginal peoples in land-use planning (ESRD 2012).

18.3.3 Industry’s Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and its members continue to research methodologies to address oil sands socio-economic challenges and report on progress made. Areas of socio-economic focus include:  Aboriginal relations: CAPP members continue to work directly with local Aboriginal communities, to train and hire local staff, utilize available local businesses, and enter into economic agreements. While doing so, CAPP members contribute to the implementation of the two governmental initiatives: Connecting the Dots: Aboriginal Workforce and Economic Development in Alberta and the Aboriginal Workforce Strategy: Alberta’s First Nations Consultation Policy on Land Management and Resource Development.  Community Investments: Canada’s oil and gas industry funds major Community Investment Initiatives and Scholarship Programs. Industry supports various recreation, arts and educational programs as well as health care initiatives. Companies also support key infrastructure developments in the communities in which they operate, through, for example, the building of community centers, training facilities and sports arenas. Community investments also help local youths earn skills and accreditations needed to work in the oil and gas industry.

Oil sands companies use multiple strategies to deal with oil sands workforce challenges. These strategies support the governmental initiatives and programs discussed in Section 18.3.2 and include:  Collaboration strategies:  sharing airstrips and camp accommodation; and  working with the government of Alberta to identify opportunities and cooperate on addressing labour shortages.  Applying new approaches to old problems:  formed the AB Coalitions for Action on Labour Shortages: includes recommendations to alleviate labour shortages through more effective immigration and temporary foreign worker programs;  formed a learning and education network: aims to better understand the training requirements for priority occupations and improve training capacity and efficiency; and  launched the Water Treatment Operator Certificate of Achievement Program: includes consistent skill set for operators to maximize the efficiency and reliability of their water treatment and recycling facilities.

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 Increasing the pool of qualified labour supply for in-demand occupations:  companies are recruiting from a broad range of labour supply: including First Nations, new Canadians, workers displaced from other industries and military;  development of the sustainability program to improve the essential skills of workers: new Canadians, First Nations and Métis; and  announced the Next Generation Program to introduce high school students to greater career options (Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada 2013).

18.3.4 Syncrude Initiatives and Programs Syncrude supports both the government and the oil sands industry’s initiatives and programs and expands on some. Syncrude developed a multi-staged approach to address its workforce needs and support the community. It begins by raising awareness of career opportunities in the oil sands by participating in such initiatives as school and campus presentations, career fairs and other special events, and trades development programs like those promoted by Careers: The Next Generation and Skills Canada Alberta.

This is followed by support for initiatives that develop the available pool of skilled labour through college, technical and university-based programs. This provides the foundation for comprehensive recruitment plans to address ongoing labour requirements.

To address a shortage of available workforce skills caused by changing workforce demographics and a robust local economy, Syncrude is continuing its longstanding work to build workforce capacity. As a community participant, Syncrude focuses on collaborative partnerships with educational institutions, businesses, industry associations, and governments (Syncrude 2011).

Syncrude is committed to employ Albertans and Canadians first. If unions are unable to source Canadian workers, they will then seek trades people in the United States, and then, if needed, other countries. In addition to its regular workforce, Syncrude relies on a large contingent of skilled trades people who contribute to many functions at its sites, including major maintenance turnarounds and construction of new projects. These workers are primarily sourced through the Building Trades of Alberta, which represents 16 trade unions and 60,000 union members, and has the ability to draw from union halls across Canada. In the event that workers cannot be found in Canada, the Building Trades then sources from the United States and Ireland where skills and certifications are comparable to those in Canada (Syncrude 2012a).

Syncrude is a founding member and currently chairs both The Alberta Council of Turnaround Industry Maintenance Stakeholders (ACTIMS) and The Construction Industrial Stakeholders Association of Alberta (CISAA). Both organizations are comprised of oilsands owners, heavy industrial maintenance contractors and labour providers. Their goal is to ensure that the owner stakeholder’s turnarounds and ongoing maintenance projects are fully staffed with skilled, qualified, experienced, professional trades people (ACTIMS 2014; CISAA 2014).

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Syncrude recognizes that its demand for skilled trades’ people is taking place in a highly competitive environment for labour resources; therefore, the following programs and activities were developed to address workforce needs and support the community:  Oil Sands Extraction Process Program: this program, launched in the spring of 2010 with participating employees from Syncrude and another oil sands developer, aims to help increase the pool of talent in the region by enhancing the knowledge and skills of bitumen extraction process operators. This program was built in association with Keyano College; it accommodates participants who are not currently employees of the partnering companies. The aim is to offer learning opportunities to both experienced and aspiring process operators. Since the program’s inception, more developers have joined as program partners. Graduates earn an Extraction Technician Certificate.  Establishment of High School Technology Centre: this centre enables students to access equipment and learning opportunities not usually offered at the high school level. The centre gives the students insight into various engineering specialties and works to influence their future career path decisions. In particular, students can receive credits toward a high school diploma while, at the same time, have the opportunity to meet requirements for a fourth Class Power Engineering certificate.  Apprenticeships: apprenticeships in recognized trades and technologies can be accessed through Syncrude directly or via two widely available programs in which Syncrude participates.  $3M contribution to Power & Process Lab at Keyano College to triple amount of ‘steam time’ available.  The Syncrude Aboriginal Trades Preparation Program was introduced in 2009 and ran for three years, to prepare participants to pursue trades apprenticeship training through academic upgrading and work experience placements at its operation. Upon successful completion, students were eligible to become indentured apprentices at Syncrude. The program was available at Keyano College in Fort McMurray, as well as learning centers in Janvier, Fort Chipewyan and Fort MacKay. The program had 88 participants upon cessation. The other two programs that Syncrude participates in include:  the Community Cooperative Apprenticeship Program, an industry driven education partnership providing training through annual rotating work placements; and  the Registered Apprenticeship Program, offered to high-school students in the form of work experience courses, Career and Technology Studies courses, and part-time employment (Syncrude 2012b, 2011).

Within the workplace, Syncrude offers a variety of education and training opportunities and incentive programs to its employees. These programs encourage people to commit to a career with the organization, and develop the specific skills that are needed to run the operation. Following is a list of Syncrude’s programs to retain its employees:

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 Initial Professional Development Program (IPDP): the IPDP is a core Syncrude workforce strategy and opportunity for new employees to grow. It provides a better career development experience for the approximately 120 new graduates who join Syncrude each year. IPDP comprises networking opportunities with management and leaders, as well as mentoring, orientation and development assignments.  Education Tuition Refund Program: this program supports professional development for regular employees who desire learning opportunities in fields of study that are relevant to Syncrude business. It provides a 100% refund on tuition, textbooks and materials, and mandatory fees for approved post-secondary courses.  Leadership Excellence Program: the Leadership Excellence Training program has been in place since the 1980s and was revised and upgraded in 2009. This program is delivered in seven days over five months and aims to provide leaders with the skills needed to lead their departments effectively, model best practices and attitudes, inspire and communicate shared goals, challenge and improve processes, enable team members by delegating effectively, and offer timely encouragement and recognition. The program uses both real and hypothetical situations as learning tools.  Aboriginal Awareness Program: Syncrude requires all leaders within the organization to participate in a one day session, which provides enhanced awareness of Aboriginal culture, history, and information on Aboriginal communities.  Housing Support Program for Fort McMurray Employees: Syncrude launched a housing support program in June 2009 to help improve its ability to attract and retain employees in Fort McMurray, where the labour market is competitive and accommodation costs are high when compared to other regions in Alberta. The five-year program includes a $40,000 lump-sum payment upon proof of purchase of a home to new, first-time home buyers and a direct mortgage interest subsidy up to $60,000. Eligible employees who rent accommodation may receive up to $30,000 in rental cost offsets. To earn the maximum benefit employees make the commitment to stay with Syncrude for five years.  Impact 21 Incentive Program (Impact 21): the Syncrude Impact 21 program motivates all employees to reach business goals by paying financial rewards to them when corporate targets in safety, reliability, production, costs, energy efficiency and environmental performance are achieved or surpassed.  Retention Program for Fort McMurray Employees: the retention program helps secure and retain the skilled workforce required to sustain its operation, and to reward existing and future employees for their commitment and contributions. It gives eligible employees three annual payments of 20% of their day-base salary up to a maximum of $20,000 before statutory deductions, per program year. All Fort McMurray-based administrative, professional and technical employees also receive a salary uplift of 14% over employees working in other locations (Syncrude 2011).

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 Syncrude Higher Education Awards Program (SHEAP): SHEAP is intended to recognize the scholastic achievement of employees' and retirees’ dependent children, and to encourage their further education by providing financial support. Eligible applicants can receive SHEAP financial support of $1,200 CAD per academic semester/term, up to a maximum of $2,400 CAD per academic year.

Other, recently introduced, Syncrude management initiatives to address workforce shortages include the following:  The Syncrude Labour Relations Executive Steering Committee: this committee composed of senior Syncrude leaders, assesses labour workforce needs and develops short- and long-term strategies to meet those needs. This committee also oversees Syncrude's engagement with several external stakeholder organizations that are working to influence labour market outcomes. They include:  Construction Owners Association of Alberta: the Construction Owners Association of Alberta provides leadership to enable the Alberta heavy industrial construction and industrial maintenance industries to be successful in safe, effective, timely and productive project execution. A Syncrude leader serves on its Board of Directors;  National Owners Forum: this group of major construction project owners from across Canada, including Syncrude, developed a five-year strategy for 2011 to 2016 to cooperatively address the workforce challenges facing the construction industry. The strategy sets out a 26-point implementation plan for owners, industry, educators and trainers, governments and other stakeholders to address the issues identified by the group;  Alberta Owners/Building Trades Canadian Executive Board Partnership: This group is comprised of construction project owners and labour representatives (unions). It is co-chaired by a Syncrude leader on behalf of the project owners and by the president of the Canadian Executive Board on behalf of the union affiliates. The group's vision is for Alberta to have a safe, effective, productive and high value-added construction and maintenance industry. Toward this, it engages in dialogue, information sharing and the exploration of ways to effect continuous improvement. It develops and implements strategies for priority areas and collaborates with others on complementary initiatives;  ACTIMS: ACTIMS is comprised of owners, labour providers and contractors. If labour cannot be secured in Canada, it works to ensure an adequate and properly trained temporary foreign workforce for major industrial maintenance turnarounds in Alberta. The group is working to identify needed worker volumes, skill sets and qualifications; improve communication with labour providers regarding project plans and labour needs; develop standardized worker training and worksite protocols; and recruit new apprentices; and

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 CISAA: CISAA is similar to ACTIMS in its composition and approach, but focuses on major industrial construction work. It is chaired by a Syncrude leader. The CISAA agree on the common themes that need to be addressed to provide a sustainable construction workforce that is able to meet short-, medium- and long- term industry needs. Working committees from the various groups focus on these issues and, where there is opportunity, federal and provincial agencies are also engaged in sustainment work. Themes include: – continually monitor supply and demand situation; – refine demand forecasting and work specifications for skilled trades; – implement initiatives to improve workforce productivity; – enhance interprovincial labour mobility; – train more apprentices and increase training capacity; – enhance outreach about skilled trades careers to junior high and high schools; – enhance recruitment from non-traditional sources: women and Aboriginals; – improve access to temporary foreign workers; – increase immigration of skilled workers; – spread workloads through modularization to offsite (i.e., less remote) fabricators in different jurisdictions; and – coordinate turnaround activities to minimize labour demand conflicts (Syncrude 2012b).  Formerly the Construction Sector Council, Buildforce Canada is a national, industry-led and funded organization that works with construction stakeholders to provide information and resources to assist in managing workforce requirements. Buildforce leads programs that build the capacity and capability of the construction workforce to meet current and future industry demand. Buildforce is also the leading source of reliable trades workforce projections for Alberta and Canada. Syncrude participates on the Alberta Labour Market Information Committee to ensure the accuracy of industry information.  Canadian Chamber of Commerce Human Resources Policy Committee was struck in April 2013 and mandated to address: skills and training; immigration policy; education of stakeholders about labour market needs; provision of labour market information; labour mobility in Canada; strategies to retain international students; and the employment of underutilized groups, such as older workers, youth and Aboriginal people. The committee was chaired by Syncrude's president and CEO until early 2014; a Syncrude vice president continues to serve as a committee member.

Syncrude total investment in 2012 was estimated at $7,568 million. Of that total, 11.2% was royalties, payroll and municipal taxes, 4.5% was purchased energy, 11.4% was employment, 12.4% was materials and support, 59.7% was contracted services and 0.7% was other expenditures (Syncrude 2012b) (Figure 18.3-3).

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Syncrude initiatives and programs correspond and align with those of the Alberta Government and the oil sands industry, as shown in Table 18.3-1.

Table 18.3-1: List of Syncrude Industry and Governmental Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs

Syncrude Oil Sands Industry Government of Alberta  Careers: The Next Generation.  Support Connecting the Dots:  Responsible Actions – a 20-  Process Operator Training Aboriginal Workforce and year strategic plan for Program. Economic Development in Alberta's oil sands, released in  Oil Sands Extraction Process Alberta. 2009. Program.  Support the Aboriginal Workforce  Comprehensive Regional  High School Technology Centre. Strategy: Alberta’s First Nations Infrastructure Sustainability  Apprenticeships. Consultation Policy on Land Plans (CRISPs), released in  Syncrude Aboriginal Trades Management and Resource 2011. Preparation Program. Development.  The Lower Athabasca  Community Cooperative  Community Investment Initiatives Regional Plan (LARP), Apprenticeship Program. and Scholarship Programs. released in 2012. Athabasca  Registered Apprenticeship  Water Treatment Operator and the Cold Lake Oil Sands Program. Certificate of Achievement Area.  Initial Professional Development Program.  Fort McMurray Urban Program.  AB Coalitions for Action on Development Sub-region.  Education Tuition Refund Labour Shortages.  Building and Educating Program.  Next Generation Program. Tomorrow’s Workforce.  Leadership Development  Connecting the Dots: Program. Aboriginal Workforce and  Housing Support Program. Economic Development in  Impact 21 Incentive Program. Alberta.  Aboriginal Workforce Strategy.  Retention Program for Fort  Alberta’s First Nations McMurray Employees. Consultation Policy on Land  Aboriginal Cultural Management and Resource Awareness training for Development. leaders.  LARP 2012-2022.  SHEAP Program.

18.3.5 Labour Force Indicators, Earnings and Income Although the 2011 Census is completed, Statistics Canada has not yet released the full Census data. As of September 2014, only population, population change and dwellings count data were released; labour force data were not released yet. The SEIA section will, therefore:  rely on the 2006 Census data, since it provides the most recent completed set of data;  include all relevant released data from the 2011 Census; and  include, for comparison reasons, data collected during the RMWB 2012 Census (sample size rather than census population).

The Statistics Canada 2006 census shows the RMWB has higher labour force participation (82.3%) and employment rates (79.5%), and a lower unemployment rate (2.8%), compared to both provincial and national rates (Table 18.3-2) (Statistics Canada 2006).

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Table 18.3-2: Labour Force Indicators in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta and Canada (2006)

Labour Force Unemployment Rate2 Employment Rate3 Area Participation Rate1 (%) (%) (%) RMWB 82.3 2.8 79.5 Fort McMurray 82.4 2.7 79.7 Fort McKay (Fort McKay 61.7 18.0 49.4 First Nation) Rural communities 79.5 4.0 75.5 Alberta 74.8 3.4 72.3 Canada 68.0 6.1 63.8

Notes: 1 Labour force participation rate: labour force in the week prior to Census Day, expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. 2 Unemployment rate: number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force in the week prior to Census Day. 3 Employment rate: number of persons employed in the week prior to Census Day, expressed as a percentage of the total population 15 years of age and over.

It also shows that Fort McMurray, the major urban center in the municipality, has a higher participation rate (82.4%) than both the rural communities’ rate (79.5%), Fort McKay Indian Settlement (Fort McKay First Nation) rate (61.7%) and is slightly higher than the RMWB rate (82.3%).

A more recent review prepared by Alberta Finance shows that the Alberta unemployment rate is among the lowest in Canada, second only to Saskatchewan. The province’s unemployment rate was 4.9% in March of 2014, considerably lower than the national rate of 7.0%. The unemployment rate in the RMWB was 4.6% in March 2014 (GoA 2014b, Statistics Canada 2014).

The 2006 census also shows that of the RMWB population of 51,496, the total experienced labour force 15 years and over was 33,615 people (31.4% in resource-based industries, 14.3% in manufacturing and construction, 13.2% in business services, 12.7% in wholesale and retail trade, 9.9% in health and education, 3.8% in finance and real estate, and 14.4% in other services).

Earnings statistics show that 70% of people 15 years and over in the RMWB had earnings from employment, compared to 62.5% in Alberta. Median earnings were $47,860 and $29,738 in the RMWB and Alberta, respectively. Income statistics suggest that the percentage of people 15 years and over with any income in the RMWB is 76.5%, compared to 76.4% in Alberta. The median total income is considerably different, however, with $43,920 in the RMWB and $28,896 in Alberta as a whole. Earnings as a percentage of total income was 95.2% in the RMWB, compared to 82.3% in Alberta. Table 18.3-3 provides a comparison between labour force indicators in the RMWB and Alberta as a whole in 2006.

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Table 18.3-3: Labour Force by Industry in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006)

Industry RMWB Fort MacKay Alberta Total experienced labour force1 (number) 33,615 235 1,928,635 Agriculture and other resource-based industries (%) 31.4 23.4 11.8 Manufacturing and construction industries (%) 14.3 21.3 15.9 Wholesale and retail trade (%) 12.7 4.2 15.1 Finance and real estate (%) 3.8 0.0 5.0 Health and education (%) 9.9 10.6 15.3 Business services (%) 13.2 14.9 18.3 Other services (%) 14.4 27.6 18.2 Earnings and Income Persons 15 years and older with earnings (%) 87.6 64.2 77.4 Median earnings persons 15 years and older ($) 47,860 31,744 29,738 Persons 15 years and older with income (%) 95.8 92.5 94.5 Median income persons 15 years and older ($) 43,920 16,832 28,896 Composition of Total Income Earnings as % of total income 95.2 86.2 82.3 Government transfer as % of total income 2.4 12.3 7.2 Other money as a % of total income 2.5 1.4 10.6

Notes: 1 Experienced labour force: persons 15 years and over, excluding institutional residents, who were employed or unemployed during the week prior to Census Day, and who had last worked for pay or in self-employment in either that year or the previous year. Source: Statistics Canada (2006).

Fort McMurray’s economy is heavily dependent on oil sands exploration and development. However, the Fort McMurray economy also relies on natural gas and oil distribution, forestry, and tourism. Fort McMurray's growth is characteristic of a resource-based community and urban service centre that supplies goods and services to oil sands development, workers and residents in the area.

Recent data available from the RMWB Census 2012 shows that 55.1% of households reported an annual income of over $180,000. Respondents that reported an annual household income of over $250,000 was 25.5%. Conversely, only 13.8% of households reported an annual household income below $100,001 (RMWB 2012).

Between 2006 and 2014, the total number of companies in Fort McMurray increased from 1,502 to 1,946 (Fort McMurray Online 2014). See Table 18.3-4 for additional details.

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Table 18.3-4: Number of Active Companies in Fort McMurray by Type

Company Type Number of Active Companies Aboriginal 15 Electronics 13 Media 12 Adult Entertainment 9 Entertainment 84 Medicine 14 Agriculture 9 Fashion 35 Moving Services 3 Animals 20 Finance 54 Office 30 Art 13 Food and Beverage 64 Other 145 Automotive 100 Government 18 Real Estate 81 Beauty 26 Health 93 Recreation 31 Business 57 Household 49 Science 24 Business Products 26 Housing 81 Society 100 Business Services 118 Industrial 169 Sports 32 Computers 27 Kids 27 Tools & Equipment 40 Construction 176 Law 19 Travel 72 Education 39 Marketing 21 Total 1,946

According to the RMWB, as of 2012, the unemployment rate in Fort McMurray was 7.3% compared to 8.9% in the Rural Service Area (all other communities and areas in RMWB). The communities of Janvier, Fort Chipewyan and Saprae Creek Estates had the highest unemployment in 2012 (46%, 41% and 36%, respectively).

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In both the urban and rural service areas, resource-based industries represent the largest percentage of the employed respondents at 49.2% and 40.6%, respectively. The industry with the smallest percentage employed in the urban (0.7%) and rural (0.1%) service areas is wholesale trade (RMWB 2012).

18.3.6 Population Table 18.3-4 provides a summary of population growth in the RMWB. Overall, there is an increase in population of 14.5% in Municipal Census 2012 compared to 2010 results. Most of the increase can be attributed to substantial growth in the population located in MLX Project accommodations (camps). See Table 18.3-5 for additional details.

Table 18.3-5: Population Count for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

2010 Municipal 2011 Federal 2012 Municipal Census Census Census Urban Service Area (Fort McMurray) 76,797 61,374 76,009 Rural Service Area (all other 4,216 4,191 4,261 communities in the RMWB) Project Accommodation 23,325 – 39,271 Total 104,338 65,565 119,496

Notes: – = Data not available. Source: RMWB (2012), Statistics Canada (2011).

Below is a summary of population growth trends in the RMWB:  in the RMWB, in 2012, total population was estimated at 119,496; population growth between 2007 and 2012 was 32.1% with an average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2012 of 7% and an overall growth since 2000 of 124.5%;  in Fort McMurray, in 2012, total population was estimated at 76,797; population growth between 2007 and 2012 was 11.5 with an average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2012 of 4.6% and an overall growth since 2000 of 71.2%;  population in work camps was estimated at 39,271 in 2012 with an average annual growth rate of 17.1%; and  rural hamlets and hinterland population was estimated at 4,261 in 2012, with an average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2012 of 1.9%.

According to 2011 census data, the population of the RMWB was 65,565; therefore, the population change between 2006 and 2011 was 27.3%. Fort McMurray’s population was 61,374; population change between 2006 and 2011 was 28%. Fort MacKay’s population was 562 and population change between 2006 and 2011 was 7.9% (Statistics Canada 2011).

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In 2012, the camp accommodations’ population was 39,271 compared to 23,325 in 2010. The urban service area population count (based on 100% extrapolation) slightly changed by 1.0% (788 people) and the rural service area remained the same in comparison to 2010 results.

When compared to the 2011 Federal Census, a noticeable increase in population can be observed. The increase is due to the definition of the “shadow” population. The shadow population is normally defined as temporary residents in the Municipality who are employed, or will be employed, by industrial or commercial establishments in the Municipality for a minimum of 30 days (RMWB 2012). For additional data on population growth in the RMWB between 2000 to 2012, see Table 18.3-6.

Table 18.3-6: Population Growth in the RMWB from 2000 to 2012

Urban Services Rural Service Project Year Total Area Area Accommodations 2000 42,600 3,347 5,903 51,850 2002 47,757 3,014 8,063 58,834 2004 56,111 3,316 7,678 67,105 2005 60,983 3,015 9,178 73,176 2006 61,366 3,909 10,442 75,717 2007 65,400 4,159 18,572 88,131 2008 72,363 4,687 26,284 103,334 2010 76,797 4,216 23,325 104,338 2011 76,797 4,216 34,490 115,503 2012 76,009 4,216 39,271 119,496

Source: RMWB (2012, 2010).

18.3.7 Education 18.3.7.1 Educational Attainment in the Socio-economic Study Area In 2006, the RMWB had a higher percentage of persons with trades certification than Alberta as a whole (18.2% for the RMWB and 10.8% for Alberta) and a lower percentage of persons with university credentials (13.0% for the RMWB and 17.5% in Alberta). This finding is consistent with the demand for oil sands industry jobs that call for technical and highly trained, skilled (trades) workers.

Fort McMurray residents achieved higher levels of education than residents in the smaller rural communities in the RMWB. The percentage of people with a high school diploma in Fort McMurray was 20.1%, compared to 17.5% in Fort MacKay and14.7% in the other rural communities. Further, the percentage of people with a college or technical certification/diploma in Fort McMurray was 18.2%, compared to 6.3% in Fort MacKay and 8.7% in the other rural communities (RMWB 2006). Information on the education profile of the RMWB is shown in Table 18.3-7.

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Table 18.3-7: Education Profile for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006)

Education Profile RMWB Fort MacKay Alberta The total population 15 years and over (number) 41,055 400 2,625,145 No certificate, diploma or degree (%) 19.7 66.2 23.4 High school certificate or equivalent (%) 24.6 17.5 26.2 Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma (%) 18.2 6.3 10.8 College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (%) 20.5 10.0 18.0 University certificate or diploma below the bachelor level (%) 4.0 0.0 4.0 University certificate or degree (%) 13.0 0.0 17.5

Source: Statistics Canada (2006).

More recent data on population attainment is available from the RMWB Census 2012. In the urban service area, 27.4% of the population had high school diploma/certificate compared to 30% in the rural services area. The percentages of population with university bachelor degree in both the urban and rural services area were comparable (almost 19%). Finally the percentages of population with college or other non-university degree in the urban services area was higher than the rural services are (26% compared to 19%) (RMWB 2012).

18.3.7.2 School Enrollment and Vocational Training In response to anticipated population growth in the region, and as a result of governmental initiatives and plans discussed in Section 18.3.2, new schools are under construction to meet the coming demand. Currently, there are four public school districts in the Municipality with a total of 24 elementary and secondary schools in Fort McMurray, and six in the rural areas of Wood Buffalo:  The Fort McMurray Public School District is the public school district for students in Fort McMurray. Alternative programs include alternative assisted self-paced studies, French immersion, Fort McMurray Christian School and Fort McMurray Islamic School‘ the Edge Athletic Academy, multicultural language training, and First Nation, Métis, and Inuit initiated educational projects;  The Fort McMurray Catholic School District is the Catholic school district for students in Fort McMurray. In addition to a faith-based learning environment, this school district offers French immersion and First Nations, Métis and Inuit language programs;  The Northland School Division extends across Northern Alberta and includes the rural area surrounding both the Town of Peace River and Wood Buffalo; and  The Greater North Central Francophone Education Region is the Northern Alberta school district for French first language education (Gauthier pers. comm. 2014; RMWB 2014b).

Currently, the Fort McMurray Public School District has almost 325 teachers and 300 assistant staff, with a student enrollment of 5,200 (Eaton pers. comm. 2013). The YMCA operates the before and after school care program for the following public schools: Ecole Dickensfield

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School, Thickwood Heights Elementary School, Timberlea School, Westview School, and Greely Road School. The program costs $460.00 per month and includes both before and after school care (Gauthier pers. comm. 2014; Bridger pers. comm. 2013).

The Northland School Division No. 61 operates an elementary school in Fort MacKay. Fort MacKay School offers kindergarten to Grade 9. As of 2014, the school had an enrollment of 84 students and nine teachers. Older students are bused to Fort McMurray to complete their high school education (NSD 2014).

The Fort McMurray Catholic School District serves over 5,500 students in 10 schools, offering early learning programs through Grade 12 education including French immersion programs. The student/teacher ratio is 20:1. Before and after school programs (out of school care) are provided at four catholic schools (Father Turcotte, Sister Mary Phillips, Father Beauregard, and St. Gabriel schools) (Tully pers. comm. 2014; RMWB 2012).

The newest schools in Fort McMurray are St. Kateri Catholic School and Walter and Gladys Hill Public School. The two schools share the same building; with a capacity of 600 students each. Both schools opened in September 2014.

The District elementary students perform well above the provincial average. Financial support from the oil sands industry to local education jurisdiction has a strong impact on students’ quality of education. Students identifying as First Nations, Métis and Inuit within the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo earn a High School completion rate (80%) that is higher than the provincial average.

The District has an industry partnership with Syncrude, through which both public and catholic schools received one million dollar each; the partnership also includes other active oil sands companies. Contributions from industry partnerships include a Science and Technology Centre at Father Patrick Mercredi School as well as a Performing Arts Centre at the Holy Trinity School (Tully pers. comm. 2014).

École Boréal is the only francophone school in Fort McMurray. Boréal is part of the Conseil Scolaire Centre-Nord (Greater North Central Francophone Education Region No. 2), which is the largest francophone school district in Alberta. The school is fully funded by the Alberta Government and offers academic programs from kindergarten to Grade 12. It has a joint partnership with Westwood High School and École McTavish Junior High Public School to allow students the opportunity to graduate with a francophone diploma (RMWB 2012).

Post-secondary education is also available and includes technical/vocational training and university transfer programs.

Keyano College is a comprehensive community college that offers educational and training programs, courses and services at their three campuses in Fort McMurray. They provide degree completion programs, as well as one and two-year university transfer programs in disciplines from General Science to Fine Arts. Certificate and diploma programs are also available, in

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addition to adult upgrading, trades preparation and apprenticeship programs. A variety of industrial programs help provide a skilled workforce for the oil sands. In 2014, Bachelors of Science in Nursing, Bachelors in Education, Bachelors in Business Administration and Environmental Science were announced.

As of January 2013, there were 3,000 credit students enrolled in Keyano College, 1,800 of which are full-time. There were 14,000 individual students enrolled in continuing education courses. As of 2013, certain courses, mainly those pertaining to oil sands activity, such as Power Engineering Programs, were over capacity in enrolment. To relieve this pressure and cover the anticipated growing demands on those programs, a new power and processing lab was developed on the Fort McMurray Keyano campus (Thomas pers. comm. 2013).

Keyano operates an adult Learning Centres in Fort MacKay, Fort Chipewyan and Janvier. The centre has an instructor and an instructional aide; is equipped with classrooms, computer laboratory, and library materials; and serves as a Community Access Point (CAP site) for the e-Campus Alberta and Alberta-North initiatives. Fort MacKay outreach program includes Academic Foundations (Grades One to Nine), College Preparation (Grades 10 to 12) and completion of high school equivalency diploma. In addition, it includes a full range of courses in three levels: High School Equivalency, Advanced High School Equivalency, and High School/University Studies combination (Keyano College 2014).

18.3.7.3 Syncrude Education Initiatives in the Socio-economic Impact Assessment As a community player and a responsible developer, Syncrude education investment in the SESA included the following:  $1 million over four years (2007-2011) to help establish a new Science and Technology Centre at Fort McMurray’s Father Patrick Mercredi High School. The MLX Project is valued at $4 million and aims to help local students develop technology skills needed by local employers. Two new labs focused on engineering technologies and industrial trades will provide hands-on learning opportunities that will give students a competitive advantage when applying for post-secondary training and apprenticeships;  $80,000 over three years (2008-2011) to support six literacy programs at the Fort McMurray Public Library. The programs focus on improving the literacy skills of toddlers and young children;  $500,000 to the University of Alberta to support delivery in the Wood Buffalo region of the DiscoverE and Women in Scholarship, Engineering, Science and Technology (WISEST) programs. DiscoverE introduces students to engineering, science and technology, while WISEST is a summer program that places students in research lab roles that are not typical for their gender;  $300,000 to the Wood Buffalo Dolly Parton Imagination Library. The Imagination Library fosters a love of reading among preschool children by providing them with a free book every month from birth to the age of five. Started in 1996 by country music star Dolly Parton, the program operates in more than 900 communities across Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. In Wood Buffalo, 5,000 preschool children are eligible, making it the largest Imagination Library initiative in Canada;

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 secondment of welder to teach welding at Father Mercredi High School;  $5K per school per year to support Aboriginal education initiatives;  $2M to Syncrude Aboriginal Trades Prep. Program;  $3M to Keyano Power and Process Engineering Lab;  $1M to Fort McMurray Public School District to increase science education;  $1M to NAIT for Power and Process Engineering Lab;  $250,000 to MacEwan University to support the Bachelor of Science in Engineering Transfer Program. This program enables the first year of a Bachelor of Science in Engineering degree to be taken at MacEwan. Upon successfully completing the first year, students are guaranteed entrance to the second year program at the University of Alberta (Syncrude 2011); and  $500,000 to the TELUS World of Science - Edmonton. Through this investment toward the Syncrude Environment Gallery, Syncrude hopes to encourage dialogue about energy solutions and the complex issues surrounding environmental science by giving visitors first-hand experience with oil sands and information on the role of science in addressing environmental impacts. The gallery also features information on topics that include recycling, weather, geological sciences and alternative energy.

18.3.8 Housing During a five year period (2008-2012), the Government of Alberta, through the discussed initiatives and action plans (see Section 18.3.2), responded to the need for housing expansion to meet the anticipated population growth in the RMWB.

The Government of Alberta committed $241 million to develop two new neighborhoods for up to 40,000 residents (Parsons Creek and Saline Creek), released Crown lands for developers to build additional housing for up to 1,000 families in 2012 and created the Wood Buffalo Housing and Development Corporation to provide residents with affordable housing alternatives in the region. Phase 1a of Parsons Creek is currently 70 to 80% constructed and completed homes are currently in use. The remaining lots available are expected to be sold by the end of summer 2014. Phase 1b of Parsons Creek is currently being planned and will be a mixed use development as opposed to Phase 1a, which is only a residential development. A second future Parsons Creek development, Phase 2a, was discussed at the municipality council meeting in April 2014 (Lutes pers. comm. 2014).

For the Saline Creek development, additional lands were released and Alberta land is now owned by the RMWB. It is estimated that homes in Saline Creek will become available in the summer of 2015 (Lutes pers. comm. 2014).

Currently, there are many new housing projects being built or planned in the region, including more affordable housing and a new senior’s housing development. Average prices for homes in the area remain among the highest in Alberta ($740,000 in Fort McMurray and $386,000 in Alberta) (RMWB 2014c). The 2014 price range for a single detached home in Fort McMurray is between $499,999 and $1,499,999 (Wooden pers. comm. 2014).

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The upward trend in both the number of housing sales and average resale price in the RMWB is expected to continue through 2014, though at a slowing pace (Lutes pers. comm. 2014). Fort McMurray apartment vacancy rate decreased from 9.4% in October 2011 to 5.4% in October 2013; average two-bedroom apartment rent remains the highest among urban centres at $2,162 per unit (GoA 2012; RMWB 2014c; CMHC 2013).

The high population growth in the RMWB also led to an increase in the number of homeless people in the area. There are two shelters, with limited capacity, to serve the homeless population (RMWB 2014c). The Wood Buffalo Housing Development Corporation and the Salvation Army each run one shelter (Lutes pers. comm. 2014).

In March of 2009, the Provincial Government released A Plan for Alberta, Ending Homelessness in 10 years. The Alberta Plan emphasizes a Housing First model of ending homelessness, a client-centered approach that removes all pre-conditions to being housed. This plan is an ambitious endeavor to move the community from managing homelessness to finally ending it. The first progress report on this initiative, 2010 to 2013, concluded that the goals of the plan were either accomplished or on track to be accomplished (RMWB 2014d).

In Fort MacKay, the majority of the population lives in single family houses, which accounts for 87% of the housing mix, while mobile homes account for 13%. Almost 83% of housing units are owned and 17% are rented, which is comparable to the RMWB’s average (RMWB 2008).

There is no information that identifies the number of homeless people in Fort MacKay. Fort MacKay does not have a homeless shelter or a women’s shelter. There is substantial pressure to keep up with the demand for housing to accommodate the growing population in Fort MacKay, which includes permanent, long-term employees, temporary workers, and the local population.

Based upon the RMWB’s forecasted population of 1,000 by the year 2030, Fort MacKay will require approximately 149 additional homes, or six per annum (Fort McKay First Nation 2014).

In response to housing need, Fort MacKay, through its Capital Projects department, is building additional houses. In 2013, the Capital Projects have tripled the number of their employees from 2012, with now about 80 working on the construction of the new homes. A new subdivision where over 70 to 100 new homes will be built. In addition, the band spent over $2 million in renovations in 2012. The housing department has done over 3,000 work orders regarding renovations in 2011 to 2012. All funding for renovations and new houses come through bank loans secured by the FMFN. By 2015, everybody on the housing waiting list, 74 in all, will have a place they can call ‘home’ (Red River Current 2013).

18.3.8.1 Syncrude Housing Initiative in the Socio-economic Study Area As a community player and a responsible developer, Syncrude launched a housing support program in June 2009 to help improve its ability to attract and retain employees in Fort McMurray, where the labour market is competitive and accommodation costs are high when compared to other regions in Alberta.

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The five-year program provides a $40,000 lump-sum payment upon proof of purchase of a home to new, first-time home buyers and a direct mortgage interest subsidy up to $60,000. Eligible employees who rent accommodation may receive up to $12,000 in rental cost offsets. To earn the maximum benefit employees make the commitment to stay with Syncrude for five years (Syncrude 2014).

18.3.9 Utilities Within the RMWB, electric power is supplied by ATCO Electric; natural gas is supplied by ATCO Gas; residential, commercial and industrial telephone services are provided by Telus; water supply is available from the Athabasca River and provided by the RMWB; sewage treatment is handled by an aerated lagoon operated by the RMWB; and residential solid waste disposal is handled by the RMWB (RMWB 2006).

To accommodate the additional demands for utility services, created by anticipated population growth, the RMWB announced its municipal infrastructure expansion plans in 2009 and 2010; these plans are described below:  the existing water treatment plant was designed to serve a population of 62,000. Expansions during the last five years ($6.8 million in 2006, $10 million in 2007, $7.9 million in 2008 and $20 million in 2011) increased the capacity of the plant to service a population of 133,000 (Guerin pers. comm. 2013);  the existing wastewater treatment plant was designed to serve a population of 60,000. The wastewater treatment system has been upgraded to support a population of 133,000 in the urban area, including the City Centre. Additional capacities can be supported with the use of newer and more advanced technologies (Guerin pers. comm. 2013); and  the solid waste facility reached capacity in 2009. A new solid waste facility with a capacity of 100,000 residents began operating in 2010 and is currently operating with one cell but more cells can be added as required. The facility accepts commercial waste from industrial development (Guerin pers. comm. 2013).

Fort MacKay is currently serviced by a water treatment plant and a sewage lagoon. Both the plant and the lagoon are able to support a capacity of up to 1,000 persons. They were designed to satisfy projected populations for the year 2030 (Guerin pers. comm. 2013).

18.3.9.1 Syncrude Water Management Syncrude's water management practices are based on the objectives of minimizing the withdrawal of fresh water from the Athabasca River, maximizing reuse of process-affected water, and responsibly managing its storage.

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The Athabasca River is Syncrude’s main source of fresh water. It provides about 15% of the total water needs. Water imported from this river is used to cool process water, generate steam and as potable water. The remaining water used (approximately 85%) is recycled from Syncrude’s settling basins, also known as tailings ponds, and used in bitumen extraction processes. In 2012, 86% of the water used was recycled from these sources (Syncrude 2012b).

18.3.9.2 Syncrude Waste Management The objectives of Syncrude waste management program are to continually reduce the quantity of waste generated, and to examine each waste stream with the view to reduce, reuse or recycle materials where possible. Syncrude also aims to ensure compliance with all applicable legislation regarding the disposal and recycling of waste materials.

Syncrude reduces waste through the use of an inventory management system that records and accounts for raw materials and process chemicals onsite. Waste reduction is also achieved through process changes, operational changes and equipment modifications. Through these means Syncrude endeavours to use less hazardous substitutes for toxic materials, change procedures that generate waste, and look for new methods or technologies to better capture hazardous waste.

Syncrude also reuses some waste (for example, oily rags collected from Syncrude laboratories and shops are cleaned and reused). Finally, Syncrude recycles waste by gathering used materials so they can be reclaimed and reprocessed by recyclers. Examples include paper, vehicle batteries, scrap metals, catalysts and beverage containers. Used lubricating oil is recycled onsite (Syncrude 2012b).

18.3.10 Protective Services Emergency Services The RMWB Regional Emergency Services (RES) provides emergency services for the people who work and live in the municipality; it provides an integrated program of emergency fire, medical response, and fire prevention. Emergency Medical Services are provided and administered out of Alberta Health Services (AHS); the balance of RES, however, are provided and administered out of the RMWB (Butz pers. comm. 2014).

The RES in the RMWB has a full range of emergency response services, including fire inspections, firefighter recruitment and training, public safety education, 9-1-1 communications, fire suppression, and dangerous goods response for both urban and rural communities in the Municipality. Facilities in the urban center of Fort McMurray include four full time fire halls and five rural fire halls supported by volunteer staff (Butz pers. comm. 2014).

As of April 2014, the RES had 132 full-time firefighters and 90 volunteer firefighters that staff the five rural fire departments. There are five training officers, eight safety code officers and three mechanics in Fort McMurray. Current staff resources are adequate to meet demand, with expansion plans that correspond to anticipated population growth (Butz pers. comm. 2014).

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The RES personnel are not trained in industrial firefighting and expect industry to service its own requirements. Syncrude is a member of the Regional Mutual Aid Emergency Response Organization, which is a formal partnership that pools resources for emergency response. Members include the RMWB, Suncor Energy Inc., Syncrude Canada Ltd., Albian Sands Energy Inc., and CNRL. The agreement calls on the parties to help each other in times of need. Syncrude, for example has extensive capabilities to fight fires, provide medical treatment and respond to other kinds of emergencies. Over the years, we have helped fight forest and building fires and have provided emergency response to highway traffic accidents, among other needs. We also provide mutual aid emergency response services to the community of Fort MacKay. There were 63 mutual aid calls in 2013.

Fort MacKay includes a volunteer fire department, but has limited equipment to deal with industrial fire issues (RMWB 2008). The Fort MacKay Fire Department is a non-profit organization consisting of over 16 members dedicated to ensuring the safety of the Fort MacKay community and its surrounding areas (Fort McKay First Nation 2014). The Syncrude Emergency Response organization provides additional support to this community under a mutual aid agreement.

Policing Services As of 2013, the Wood Buffalo RCMP Detachment had 216 members and 127 municipal support staff serving the entire regional municipality. There are nine members devoted to First Nations policing who work in both the Aboriginal Community Program and the Enhanced Policing Program; those nine staff are assigned to various rural communities in the municipality (Wilkins pers. comm. 2013).

The Wood Buffalo RCMP Detachment is responsible for the entire RMWB and covers approximately 66,361 km2. This area spans from south of Conklin to the Northwest Territories border, and includes the communities of Fort Fitzgerald, Fort Chipewyan, Fort MacKay, Fort McMurray, Sapree Creek Estates, Draper, Gregoire Lake Estates, Anzac, Janvier, and Conklin. Within its jurisdiction, there are several satellite detachments to affect timely responses to calls. The headquarters building is located in the Timberlea area of Fort McMurray.

Crime statistics for the urban and rural areas of the RMWB vary in both the number and the nature of the offences. In Fort McMurray, the highest number of incidents recorded were motor vehicle collisions (3,281 incidents in 2013), followed by person crime offences and vehicle theft (971 and 959 incidents, respectively, in the same year). In addition, there were 971 drug offences in 2013, representing a -13% decrease from 2012 (RCMP 2013) (Table 18.3-8).

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Table 18.3-8: Total Crime Rates in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (2013)

% Change Offences Type 2013 (2012-2013) Rural Person Crime Offences 295 -3% Property Crime Offences (Break and 205 -12% enter and vehicle theft) Property Crime Offences (Business 67 -9% and Residence) Drug Offences 108 10% Total Motor Vehicle Collisions 833 7% Vehicle Theft 178 -1% Urban (Fort McMurray) Person Crime Offences 971 -13% Property Crime Offences (Break and 682 1% enter and vehicle theft) Property Crime Offences (Business 139 -7% and Residence) Drug Offences 731 4% Total Motor Vehicle Collisions 3281 37% Vehicle Theft 959 7% Source: RCMP (2013).

In rural areas, the highest number of incidents recorded were motor vehicle collisions (833 incidents in 2013), followed by person crime offences and property crime offences (295 and 205 incidents, respectively, in the same year). In addition, there were 108 drug offences in 2013, representing a 10% increase from 2012 (RCMP 2013).

The Fort McMurray Rural Unit provides policing services to the Fort MacKay community. The highest number of incidents recorded were property crime offences (50 incidents in 2011), followed by persons crime offences and other criminal code offences (45 and 14 incidents, respectively, in the same year). The percentage change in the total number of recorded incidents compared to the year before varies (-4% in persons crime, -3% in property crime and +4% in other criminal code). In addition to the above crime offences, there were five drug offences in 2011, no change from the previous year.

Improvements in traffic safety in the RMWB are reflected in the change in total motor vehicle collisions. In rural areas, collisions decreased by 10% from 2010 to 2011, while for the urban centre the decrease was 24% during the same period. In Fort MacKay, there was no change in motor vehicle collisions compared to the previous year.

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Between 2010 and 2012, crime rates have dropped in Fort McMurray and this trend is expected to continue for a third year. The criminal activity that does occur is consistent with that generally experienced in larger communities: drugs, assaults, auto theft, break and enters, domestic violence, and driving offences. There have been minimal changes in crime rates with the expansion of the oil sands (Grant pers. comm. 2012).

18.3.10.1 Syncrude Safety, Health and Environment Initiatives in the Socio-economic Study Area Syncrude is committed to protecting and promoting the safety and well-being of its employees, contractors, and communities of operations and the environment. The following demonstrate Syncrude Safety, Health and Environment initiatives in the SESA:  Syncrude has adopted the ExxonMobil Operations Integrity Management System as a primary tool for managing personnel and process safety, and workforce health. It focuses on identifying and managing hazards through more clearly defined work processes and workforce responsibilities. In 2013, an external team assessed the status and effectiveness of all 11 Operations Integrity Management System elements; the group determined how well hazards are systematically identified, evaluated and controlled; how the risks of these hazards are managed; and that Syncrude is compliant with safety, security, health and environmental regulations;  Syncrude participates in the Mining Association of Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining Initiative, which is a set of tools and indicators to drive performance and ensure that key mining risks are managed responsibly. Adhering to the principles of Towards Sustainable Mining, members demonstrate leadership by engaging with communities, driving world-leading environmental practices, and committing to the safety and health of employees and surrounding communities. Specific protocols or frameworks that are stewarded to include: tailings management, Aboriginal and community outreach, energy and greenhouse gas emissions management, biodiversity conservation, safety and health, crisis management and mine closure;  Syncrude emergency response personnel deal with many different kinds of situations. They prepare for these in various ways, including exercises at onsite training facilities and by participating in regional and national events that provide training in a competitive atmosphere; and  in May and June of 2011, the second largest forest fire in Alberta history came in close proximity to the Syncrude Aurora North Mine. The situation persisted for weeks, creating reduced visibility and air quality, among other hazards. For five weeks, Syncrude emergency response personnel and heavy equipment operators assisted crews from Alberta Sustainable Resource Development in building fire breaks and directing the fire away from work sites and populated areas. Air quality monitoring continued at both the Aurora and Mildred Lake sites to ensure it was safe to work both inside and outside. (Syncrude 2012b).

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18.3.11 Health Health care in SESA is coordinated and delivered through AHS, Area 10, North Zone, part of the Province's health care system. The Northern Lights Regional Health Centre (NLRHC) in Fort McMurray is the main regional health centre and hospital within Area 10, which encompasses the Wood Buffalo Region. It offers acute and continuing health care, including 24-hour emergency services, laboratory and x-ray services, mental health services, general surgery, ambulatory care, rehabilitation, home care, and community health.

Similar to the expansion in Housing and Protective Services that took place during the last five years, as a result of governmental initiatives and plans, health services in the SESA improved substantially. Over the past five years, nearly 20 new specialized doctors have come to Fort McMurray. The Fort McMurray Public Health Building opened recently. Plans are underway to build a new Continuing Care facility, for which the funding has been approved. The community also wants to work to improve health centers across the region to improve access for people who do not live in Fort McMurray.

Currently, the emergency department at the NLRHC shows some of the shortest wait times in the province, access to family doctors is not an issue, with over 10 family physicians accepting new patients, and rehabilitation services, in general, are accessible through the NLRHC but can also be accessed through a variety of independent service providers within the community. Despite the above improvements, it is still difficult to access specialist services. Visiting specialists, including doctors specializing in oncology and cardiology, are filling some of the gaps; however, most of these specialty services are still provided out of Edmonton (Brake pers. comm. 2014).

Oil sands companies with remote work sites have worked in partnership with AHS to provide high quality occupational health, primary health and medical services onsite. Employees can access health care services and deal with health issues when they are on the job, including health and wellness education (RMWB 2014e) The Syncrude Health Centre manages approximately 15,000 visits per year.

In Fort MacKay, and on top of the health services provided out of Fort McMurray, the Health & Human Services department of Fort McKay First Nation manages a full spectrum of programs and services supporting community members’ well-being with respect to healthcare, mental health, elder care and support as well as support for youth in terms of activities, programs and skill building (Fort McKay First Nation 2014).

18.3.11.1 Syncrude Health Investment/Initiatives in the Socio-economic Study Area As a community player and a responsible developer, Syncrude health investment in the SESA included the following:  $2 million over five years to the Northern Lights Health Foundation for programs and equipment that support women’s health;

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 $250,000 over five years to the Stollery Children’s Hospital Foundation to expand the emergency room, which will help increase capacity and access to services, including for patients from the Wood Buffalo region needing specialized care;  $300,000 over six years to the Alberta Cancer Foundation to establish a Fort McMurray- based nurse navigator to guide cancer patients through their treatment;  $30,000 over three years to the Alberta Council of Women’s Shelters for its new Family- Business Connect Program. The program encourages local businesses to become partners in confronting the challenges of domestic violence;  $250,000 over two years to support the Wellspring Centre in Edmonton;  $500,000 to the University of Alberta /Royal Alex Men’s Health Campaign to support a new prostate cancer centre;  $250,000 to the Royal Alexandria Hospital to support the CK Hui Heart Centre;  $60,000 per year to support the Lois Hole hospital for women;  $500,000 to support the University of Alberta’s Brain Centre Campaign;  $500,000 to support the Elder Care Centre in Fort Chipewyan;  $250,000 over five years to the Compassion House Foundation to expand its Edmonton- based facility that provides accommodation and supports to northern Alberta women who must travel to the city for breast cancer treatments; and  $110,000 to Ronald McDonald House Northern Alberta to aid in the provision of accommodation and supports to northern Alberta children and their families who must travel to Edmonton for medical treatments.

18.3.12 Recreation and Leisure Facilities The Community Services Department of the RMWB consists of three branches that work to enhance the quality of life of the residents. Recreation and leisure facilities and services are provided and administered out of the Community Strategies Branch. The Facilities work unit in this Branch plays a vital role in the initial needs assessment and feasibility of all future recreation facility projects, continuing in a liaison role for the remainder of the projects. The Recreation team works with community members to develop partnerships, programs and services to encourage and support self-sufficiency with a focus in recreation and sport and leisure.

Municipal recreation facilities in the RMWB include: Archie Simpson Arena, Casman Centre, Doug Barnes Cabin, Frank Lacroix Minor Hockey Arena, Haxton Centre at Borealis Park, Fort McMurray Public Library, MacDonald Island Park, Suncor Community Leisure Centre, Outdoor Green Gym, Outdoor Rinks, Syncrude Timberlea Athletic Park, and Vista Ridge All Seasons Park. Other recreation and sport facilities include the Syncrude Sport and Wellness Centre, YMCA, campgrounds and golf clubs (RMWB 2014f).

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During the last five years, a variety of recreation and leisure facilities opened. As of 2012, and despite the expansion, the utilization rate was still high and approaching 100% during both day and night shifts. For example, ice arena usage during the daytime remains high as a large portion of the Fort McMurray population are shift workers. Although arena service ratio goals were set at 10,000 people/arena, the demand greatly exceeds the supply and the service ratio is almost 25,000 people/arena (Agozzino-organ pers. comm. 2012).

To deal with the additional demand, the Community Services Department in the RMWB decided to expand the recreation facilities in rural communities to reduce the pressure on Fort McMurray’s facilities. In 2012, new recreation facilities were opened in Fort Chipewyan and two more will be opened in Anzac by 2013/2014 and Conklin by 2014/2015 (Agozzino-organ pers. comm. 2012). In addition, an expansion to the Suncor Community Leisure Centre will open in 2015 and a new North Side Recreation Centre will open in 2017.

The shadow population (population living in camps) does not greatly impact recreation facilities as there is no predictable pattern of usage by these people; this combines with a preference to use recreation facilities at or near the work site to minimize traveling.

Fort MacKay has a variety of recreation facilities, including playgrounds and parks, two baseball diamonds, and an outdoor hockey rink. In addition, the Fort MacKay Parks and Recreational Society initiates and manages recreational programs, playgrounds and other recreational facilities in Fort MacKay. Activities offered by the Parks and Recreational Society include the Fort MacKay Fitness Centre, sports teams and athletes, physical education program, special events, and the North Wind Dancers (RMWB 2008).

18.3.12.1 Syncrude Recreation Investment in the Socio-economic Study Area Syncrude community contributions in this area include:  $1,000,000 over four years (2008-2011) to MacDonald Island Park for programs at the Syncrude Aquatic Centre. The centre includes a 10-lane, 50-m pool, waterslides, and a spray park;  $150,000 to support the Grand Slam of Curling;  $250,000 to support the Archie Simpson Syncrude Youth Centre in Fort Chipewyan;  $300,000 to the YMCA of Wood Buffalo to upgrade its aquatics facility;  $500,000 over five years (2007-2011) to Vista Ridge All Seasons Park to support its ski hill expansion project. Syncrude’s support enabled the construction of a new chair lift and three new runs; and  $450,000 over three years (2009-2011) to sponsor the Syncrude Boreal Open Canadian professional golf tour event in Fort McMurray in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The tour event brings world-class golf to the community and also raises funds for local sports and recreation organizations (Syncrude 2012b, 2011).

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18.3.13 Social Services Social services in the RMWB are provided and administered out of the Neighbourhood and Community Development (NCD) Branch of the Community Services Department in the RMWB. The NCD strives to enhance, strengthen and stabilize individual, family and community life by assisting persons to identify and act on their own social needs. NCD is a partnership between the Province, Municipalities and Métis settlements that develops locally-driven preventative social initiatives to enhance the well-being of individuals, families and communities (RMWB 2014g).

During the last five years, there was an increase in the capacity of social services. However, in 2012 and despite the expansion, they were still experiencing capacity issues. Users of social services include residents in Fort McMurray, rural residents in the RMWB, job seekers from outside the RMWB, and construction workers during their off days.

The demand for social support services is mainly from the residents in Fort McMurray and rural residents in the RMWB, while the demand for homeless shelters is primarily from job seekers from outside the RMWB and construction workers during their days off.

Although most of the developers in the area offer camp accommodation, those that run a rotating work schedule do not allow the workers to stay in the camp during their off days (rotating schedule six days on and six days off). Workers that choose to stay in the RMWB on their days off often seek hotel accommodations, which may or may not be available or are available but not affordable; these workers, therefore, may seek accommodation at the homeless shelters. Job seekers also arrive in the RMWB from other parts of the country seeking employment. If they are not able to find work, they too may utilize the homeless shelters, support services and public housing programs of the municipality (Evasiuk pers. comm. 2012).

Social services in Fort MacKay are provided by NCD, the Wellness Centre, and the Fort MacKay Parks and Recreational Society. A Roots of Empathy program is located at the Fort MacKay School. In addition, the Wellness Centre operates a Children’s After School Program, a Supper Program, Drop-In Supervised Youth Nights, a Youth Leadership Program, Cultural Programs, Summer Day Camp programs, YMCA Pre-Teen and Teen Nights, and a tutoring program (RMWB 2008).

18.3.14 Aboriginal Benefits 18.3.14.1 Population According to the Statistics Canada Aboriginal census, there were 5,130 people of Aboriginal identity residing in the RMWB in 2001 and there were 5,365 in 2006. Of these, 45.2% were North American Indian, 47.1% were Métis and 4.0% Inuit (Statistics Canada 2006).

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18.3.14.2 First Nations in the Socio-economic Study Area There are five First Nation communities in the SESA. Table 18.3-9 provides a general overview of these communities.

Table 18.3-9: Profile of First Nations Communities in the Socio-economic Study Area

On Reserve and Off Reserve First Nation Location on Crown Land Population Population Fort McMurray First Nation #468 35 km southeast of Fort McMurray 277 430 Fort McKay First Nation 50 km northwest of Fort McMurray 410 406 (IR 174) 105 km northwest of Fort McMurray (IR 174A, 174B) Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation 200 km north of Fort McMurray 246 863 Mikisew Cree First Nation Reserves are located adjacent to and 779 2,165 north of Fort Chipewyan (200 km north) Chipewyan Prairie Dené First 120 km southeast of Fort McMurray 375 478 Nation

Source: AANDC (2014).

Fort McMurray First Nation #468 The FMFN #468 consists of four reserves: three are located near Anzac on Gregoire Lake and the fourth is located about 20 km east of Fort McMurray. These reserves include Clearwater 175, Gregoire Lake 176, Gregoire Lake 176A, and Gregoire Lake 176B. Table 18.3-10 provides a list of the FMFN #468 reserves (both populated and unpopulated), their locations and total area.

Table 18.3-10: Fort McMurray First Nation #468 Reserves

Total Area No. Name Location (ha) 06721 Clearwater 175 On Clearwater River, 7 miles SE of Fort McMurray; Twp 88 Rge 915 7 W4M 06722 Gregoire Lake 176 35 km SE of Fort McMurray 2,232 06723 Gregoire Lake 176A Twp 86 Rge 8 W4M, Frac Sec 10 and portion of SW1/4 Sec 15 67 06724 Gregoire Lake 176B Twp 86 Rge 8 W4M 17

Source: AANDC (2014).

Fort McKay First Nation The Fort McKay First Nation has reserves at Fort MacKay, Namur Lake and Gardiner Lake: Fort McKay 174, Namur River 174a, Namur Lake 174b, and Fort McKay 174c. Table 18.3-11 provides a list of the Fort McKay First Nation reserves (both populated and unpopulated), their locations and total areas (AANDC 2014).

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Table 18.3-11: Fort McKay First Nation Reserves

Total Area No. Name Location (ha) 06718 Fort Mckay 174 Sec 13 (E 1/2 Ptn) & Sec 24 (SE 1/4 Ptn) Twp 94 Rge 11 W4M 3,106.70 09678 Fort Mckay 174c 3,381.40 09779 Fort Mckay 174d 660.80 06720 Namur Lake 174b 105 km NW/NO of/de Fort McMurray 3,122.20 06719 Namur River 174a On E bank of Namur River, 65 miles NW of Fort McMurray 4,614.90 Twp 97 & 98 Rge 16 W4M

Source: AANDC (2014).

Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation The ACFN has eight reserves. Table 18.3-12 provides a list of the ACFN reserves (both populated and unpopulated), their locations and total areas (AANDC 2014).

Table 18.3-12: Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation

Total Area No. Name Location (ha) 06704 Chipewyan 201 At SE end of Lake Athabasca, Twp 108 – 111, Rge 5-7 W4M 20,072.40 06705 Chipewyan 201a At SE end of Lake Athabasca, Twp 111, Rge 4 W4M 9,515.60 06706 Chipewyan 201b 16 miles SE of Fort Chipewyan, Twp 110, Rge 5 W4M 19.40 06707 Chipewyan 201c On E side of Richardson Lake, about 7 miles S of Lake 18.20 Athabasca, Twp 108, Rge 6 W4M 06708 Chipewyan 201d On E side of Richardson lake, about 7 miles S of Lake 4.30 Athabasca, Twp 108, Rge 6 W4M 06709 Chipewyan 201e On E side of Richardson lake, about 7 miles S of Lake 4,165.50 Athabasca, Twp 108, Rge 6 W4M 06710 Chipewyan 201f On E bank of Athabasca river, 30 miles S of Embarrass portage, 66.40 Twp 104, Rge 9 W4M 06711 Chipewyan 201g On E bank of Athabasca river 37 miles S of Embarrass portage, 905.30 Twp 102-103, Rge 9 W4M

Source: AANDC (2014).

Mikisew Cree First Nation The MCFN has nine reserves. Table 18.3-13 provides a list of the MCFN reserves (both populated and unpopulated), their locations and total areas (AANDC 2014).

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Table 18.3-13: Mikisew Cree First Nation

Total Area No. Name Location (ha) 06734 Allison Bay 219 3 miles NE of Fort Chipewyan, Alberta, on the shores of Lake 1,861 Athabasca 06747 Charles Lake 225 Island on Charles Lake, in NE corner of Alberta, includes parts of 64.5 Sec 26, 27, 34 & 35, Twp 125, Rge 4 W4M 06745 Collin Lake 223 On north shore of Colin Lake in NE corner of Alberta, in part of 36.4 Sec 7, Twp 122, Rge 1 & part of Sec 12, Twp 122, Rge 2 06746 Cornwall Lake 224 Part of unnamed island in Cornwall Lake, in NE corner of Alberta, 69.3 in parts of Sec 15 & 22, Twp 122, Rge 4 W4M 06729 Devil's Gate 220 10 km N of Fort Chipewyan 819.1 08495 Dog Head 218 Located within the Fort Chipewyan settlement 34.8 06733 Old Fort 217 Near the SE corner of Wood Buffalo National Park on E bank of 1,509 Athabasca River in Twp 108, Rge 9 & 10 & Twp 109, Rge 9 W4M 09136 Peace Point 222 Within Wood Buffalo National Park at Peace Point, Alberta 518 06735 Sandy Point 221 On north shore of Lake Athabasca in part of Twp 114, Rge 5 204 W4M 17 miles E of Wood Buffalo National Park Source: AANDC (2014).

Chipewyan Prairie Dené First Nation The CPDFN has three reserves. Table 18.3-14 provides a list of the CPDFN reserves (both populated and unpopulated), their locations and total areas (AANDC 2014).

Table 18.3-14: Chipewyan Prairie Dené First Nation

Total Area No. Name Location (ha) 09204 Cowper Lake 194a North shore of Cowper Lake in Twp 80, Rge 3 143 06726 Janvier 194 97 km SW of Fort McMurray 2,486.7 09205 Winefred Lake 194b North end of Winefred Lake Twp 76, Rge 4 450 Source: AANDC (2014).

18.3.14.3 Aboriginal Profile: Métis in the Socio-economic Study Area As of 2012, Alberta’s Métis population was estimated at 85,500, the largest Métis population in Canada. The majority of Alberta’s Métis population (88%) live in major urban centers. There are eight Métis settlements in Alberta, comprising 512,121 ha (25 million acres). This is the only recognized Métis land base in Canada (Fort McMurray Métis 2012).

There are seven Métis locals that lie within the northern region of the RMWB (total population approximately between 5,000 to 6,000 people), four of which are within the Project SESA:  Fort Chipewyan Métis Local #125;  Fort McKay Métis Local #63;

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 Fort McMurray Métis Local #1935; and  Fort McMurray Métis Local #2020.

18.3.14.4 Economy The 2006 census shows that the total experienced Aboriginal identity labour force 15 years and over in the RMWB was 3,035 people employed in the following sectors: 33.9% in resource- based industries, 13.5% in manufacturing and construction, 9.2% in wholesale and retail trade, 2.8% in finance and real estate, 7.9% in health and education, 12.7% in business services and 20.0% in other services (Statistics Canada 2006).

Earnings statistics show that 83% of Aboriginal people 15 years and over have earnings in the RMWB, compared to 71.2% in the Alberta Aboriginal population. The median earnings were $44,491 and $21,010 in the RMWB and Alberta, respectively. The percentage of Aboriginal people 15 years and over with income in the RMWB is 95.3%, compared to 93.3% in Alberta as a whole. The median income is very different: $38,322 in the RMWB and $18,335 in Alberta. Earnings as a percentage of total income are 94.2% in the RMWB, compared to 82.9% in Alberta. Table 18.3-15 provides a comparison between labour force indicators for Aboriginal people in the RMWB and Alberta as a whole in 2006 (Statistics Canada 2006).

Table 18.3-15: Economic Indicators for the Aboriginal Population in the RMWB and Alberta (2006)

Alberta Aboriginal Economic Indicator RMWB Population Labour Force Labour force participation rate (%) 76.0 68.3 Employment rate (%) 69.9 60.8 Unemployment rate (%) 7.9 11.1 Industry Agriculture/other resource-based industries (%) 33.9 5.05 Manufacturing and construction industries (%) 13.5 7.2 Wholesale and retail trade (%) 9.2 15.8 Finance and real estate (%) 2.8 4.0 Health and education (%) 7.9 23.9 Business services (%) 12.7 13.4 Other services (%) 20.0 30.4 Earnings and Income Persons 15 years and older with earnings (%) 83.0 71.2 Median earnings persons 15 years and older ($) 44,491 21,010 Persons 15 years and older with income (%) 95.3 93.3 Median income persons 15 years and older ($) 38,322 18,335 Composition of Total Income (100)% Earnings as % of total income 94.2 82.9 Government transfer as % of total income 4.4 13.2 Other money as a % of total income 1.3 3.9 Notes: See Table 18.3-2 for definitions of participation, employment and unemployment rates. Rates are for experienced labour forced aged 15 years and older. Source: Statistics Canada (2006).

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Syncrude Economic Support to Aboriginals in the Socio-economic Study Area Syncrude’s commitment to working with First Nations and Métis communities in the Wood Buffalo region earned Alberta Business Awards of Distinction for Aboriginal Relations Best Practices, Diversity, and Youth Employment, bestowed by the Alberta Chambers of Commerce in February 2010. Adjudicators cited Syncrude for establishing, and meeting, commitments in six priority areas.

Syncrude Aboriginal Workforce Syncrude was successful in attracting 86 new Aboriginal employees in 2010 to 2011 and an additional 64 employees in 2012 to 2013. As at year-end 2013, Syncrude’s 467 Aboriginal employees comprised 8.8% of the total workforce. Ongoing recruitment initiatives, such as the day-to-day work of Syncrude’s Aboriginal Recruitment Specialist, Syncrude’s rotational employment program in several Wood Buffalo Aboriginal communities, and Syncrude’s participation in the Aboriginal Human Resource Council’s Inclusion Works National Career Fair, will help maintain strong levels of Aboriginal hiring. Workforce development initiatives, such as supporting education and trades training programs, also play an important role in developing the next generation of Aboriginal employees (Syncrude 2012a, 2011) (Figure 18.3-4).

Syncrude Aboriginal Business Support Syncrude recorded strong performance for Aboriginal procurement in 2013, with a total business volume of $186 million with companies owned by Aboriginal entrepreneurs and First Nations in the Wood Buffalo region. This brought the total cumulative procurement since 1992 to over $2 billion (Syncrude 2014). The average annual amount of procurement with Aboriginal companies between 2007 and 2013 is $154 million (Figure 18.3-5).

Syncrude Aboriginal Investment Syncrude invested nearly $2 million in Aboriginal community projects during 2010 to 2011 and an additional $600,000 during 2012. Projects included:  the National Aboriginal Achievement Awards (now the Indspire Awards) and the National Aboriginal Achievement Foundation Education Series Career Fair for Aboriginal high school students;  the Science Alberta Foundation. It will produce classroom science learning tools for Aboriginal schools in the Wood Buffalo region and beyond;  Athabasca Tribal Council Regional Gathering. This event celebrates Aboriginal culture and brings together First Nations communities to promote better understanding and appreciation of traditional values;  Alberta Foundation for the Arts Travelling Exhibition Program. It features works by Aboriginal artists in an exhibition that travels to various communities across Alberta;  Sponsorship of the Alex Janvier exhibit at the Art Gallery of Alberta; and  the WISEST and DiscoverE programs with the University of Alberta School of Engineering, which will now reach out to Aboriginal communities in northern Alberta (Syncrude 2012a).

Page 18-50 Path: S:\Gis\Projects\CE\Syncrude_MLX\CE04183_MLX_EIA\CorelDraw\ApplicationReportFigures\Vol 2 Section 18 - Socio-Economic Impact Assessment\Fig18.03-04 Syncrude Workforce.cdr Sources: Syncrude. Sources: Note: MLX Project Syncrude Aboriginal Workforce (2007-2012) Fig18.03-04 SyncrudeWorkforce ANALYST: DATE: April 2014 JE 14-05-08 QA/QC: KW RT EH PROVIDED BY: PROVIDED FINAL MAPPING BY: MAPPING FINAL Figure 18.3-4 AMEC AMEC AMEC AMEC Figure 18.3-5 FINAL MAPPING BY: PROVIDED BY: KW RT EH 14-09-10 QA/QC: CF Fig18.03-05 Procurement September 2014 DATE: ANALYST: Syncrude Procurement with Aboriginal Owned Companies

Aurora South Project Millions $

Note: Sources: Syncrude.

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Syncrude Aboriginal Review Published annually, Pathways, the Syncrude Aboriginal Review, provides a comprehensive overview of the company’s Aboriginal Relations work and progress in stewarding to its key commitment areas of corporate leadership, employment, business development, education, community development, and the environment (Syncrude 2011).

18.3.14.5 Education Northland School Division No. 61 is responsible for most public schools within the northern portion of the province. It serves predominately Aboriginal peoples and operates schools in Conklin, Janvier (Chard) and Anzac. Total enrollment in 2010/2011 was 2,787 students. Each school has a local school board committee, which provides input and guidance on local school operations. There is also an Aboriginal Advisory Committee, which provides guidance to the overall operations of the School Division (Alberta Education 2011).

In the RMWB, of the total Aboriginal population 15 years and over of 4,065 people in 2006, 33% had no certificate, diploma or degree, which is lower than the provincial average for Aboriginal people of 44.3%. Almost 26% had a high school graduation certificate, which is higher than the provincial average of 21.3%. The percentage of people with a trade, college or other non- university diploma was 35.1%, which is higher than the provincial average of 26.7%. Finally, the percentage of people with a university certificate or diploma below the bachelor level was 5.8% in the RMWB, which is close to the provincial average of 7.6% (Table 18.3-16) (Statistics Canada 2006).

Table 18.3-16: Education Profile for the Aboriginal Population in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006)

Alberta Education Profile RMWB Aboriginal The total Aboriginal population 15 years and over 4,065 129,745 No certificate, diploma or degree (%) 33.0 44.3 High school certificate or equivalent (%) 26.0 21.3 Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma (%) 18 11.5 College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (%) 17.1 15.2 University certificate or diploma below the bachelor level (%) 1.6 2.7 University certificate or degree (%) 4.2 4.9 Source: Statistics Canada (2006).

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18.3.14.6 Syncrude Aboriginal Education Initiatives in the Socio-economic Study Area As a community player and responsible developer, Syncrude supports and contributes to the following Aboriginal education programs:  the Syncrude Aboriginal Trades Preparation Program at Keyano College. It comprised scholastic upgrading, trades exploration and work placements at Syncrude. The Program was offered at the College’s main Fort McMurray campus and also in the region’s Aboriginal communities of Fort Chipewyan, Fort MacKay, Janvier, and Conklin. Syncrude offered permanent jobs to all students upon successful completion of the program, including 16 graduates in 2010 and 20 in 2011. The program was concluded in 2012;  the National Aboriginal Achievement Awards (now the Indspire Awards) and the National Aboriginal Achievement Foundation Education Series Career Fair for Aboriginal high school students;  the Science Alberta Foundation. It will produce classroom science learning tools for Aboriginal schools in the Wood Buffalo region and beyond;  Alberta Foundation for the Arts Travelling Exhibition Program. It features works by Aboriginal artists in an exhibition that travels to various communities across Alberta;  a bison education kit for all 23 schools in the rural Northland School Division. The kit was originally commissioned by Syncrude for use in the Fort MacKay School and proved so popular that Syncrude provided funds to enable its use in more schools; and  the WISEST and DiscoverE programs with the University of Alberta School of Engineering, which will now reach out to Aboriginal communities in northern Alberta (Syncrude 2011).

18.3.14.7 Syncrude Aboriginal Relations Initiatives in the Socio-economic Study Area The Progressive Aboriginal Relations Program is Canada's only certification program with an exclusive focus on Aboriginal relations. It was developed as a framework for companies to measure progress on developing progressive Aboriginal relations and considers corporate efforts in Aboriginal employment, Aboriginal business development, building individual capacity and enhancing relations with Aboriginal communities. Certification includes independent verification and review by a jury composed of Aboriginal business people. Syncrude currently holds Gold Level Progressive Aboriginal Relations distinction, and has been accredited at this level five times.

Other Syncrude Aboriginal Relations Initiatives include the following:  in December 2010, Syncrude signed the first ever Good Neighbor Agreement between Syncrude and Métis Local 1935, an agreement that has recently been renewed;  in April 2011, Syncrude signed a bilateral agreement with FMFN #468;  in 2010-2011, regular consultation meetings were held with all five of the region’s First Nations and several Métis locals, with a total of 236 consultation and community engagement activities;  in October 2011, a long-term Syncrude employee was seconded to the CPDFN to advise on the community’s business development efforts;

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 regular contact with Aboriginal contractors (at least two meetings per year per contractor) was maintained and issues and concerns were documented and tracked to enable prompt resolution;  in January 2011, a joint venture among the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, the Fort McKay First Nation and a third party won a Syncrude contract to provide all site food services;  Chief-to-Chief meetings are regularly held between Syncrude and the Fort McKay First Nation, the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, Mikisew Cree First Nation, FMFN #468, and CPDFN. As well, a Chief-to-Chief meeting with all Chiefs was held during the 2011 Treaty 8 celebrations;  Elders’ advisory tours of Syncrude reclamation projects are held annually for Elders from the Fort McKay First Nation, ACFN, MCFN, FMFN #468, CPDFN and Métis Locals 1935, 125 and 63;  Syncrude participated in industry and government efforts toward a new consultation agreement with the MCFN and ACFN, which is hoped to replace the All Party Core Agreement, which ended in March 2010. Negotiations are continuing;  Syncrude leaders remained active on the Industry Committee of the Northeastern Alberta Aboriginal Business Association;  Syncrude assisted the ACFN with a building inspection and facility report for property in Fort Chipewyan; and  trapper identification cards were produced for all trappers with the Fort McKay First Nation so they can be easily identified by Syncrude field staff and have unimpeded access to their traplines during winter field programs.

18.4 Application Case 18.4.1 Project Summary 18.4.1.1 Duration and Costs The duration of the pre-production (i.e., construction) phase is nine years, from 2018 to 2026 for both the east and west pits. Pre-production capital expenditures are estimated at $3 billion over this nine year period. Syncrude estimates that up to 80% of the pre-production expenditures will be spent in Alberta and 20% elsewhere in Canada. The average size of the pre-production workforce is estimated to be 1,159 workers. Given experience and current operations in the SESA, Syncrude anticipates that up to 40% of the pre-production workforce will be existing residents in Fort McMurray and Fort MacKay and the remaining 60% will be new hires.

The duration of the mining operations phase will be 42 years, from 2023 to 2064; this includes mining operations from 2023 to 2036 and fines management activities from 2030 to 2064. The average size of the operations workforce will be about 669 annually. Up to 83% of the operations workforce will be transferred from existing mining operations at the North Mine and the remaining 17% will be new hires. Average operations expenditures are estimated at $343 million annually. All operations expenditures will be spent in Alberta.

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Tables 18.4-1 and 18.4-2 provide breakdowns of the MLX Project pre-production and operations costs, respectively, for: engineering and project management, equipment and materials, and labour costs including benefits. It also includes the percentage of expenditures expected to occur in the SESA, elsewhere in Alberta, and elsewhere in Canada.

Table 18.4-1: Project Pre-production Costs

$$ CDN % Spent % Spent % Spent Cost Category Value Elsewhere in Elsewhere in Total in the SESA (MM) Alberta Canada Engineering and Management 700 20% 70% 10% 100% Equipments and Materials 1,500 10% 70% 20% 100% Labour Costs including benefits 800 60% 10% 30% 100% Total Project Costs 3,000

Note: All costs are stated in 2013 CDN dollars.

Table 18.4-2: Project Operations Costs

$$ CDN % Spent % Spent % Spent Cost Category Value Elsewhere in Elsewhere in Total in the SESA (MM) Alberta Canada Engineering and Management 1,700 20% 70% 10% 100% Equipments and Materials 6,900 70% 25% 5% 100% Labour Costs including benefits 5,800 80% 20% 0% 100% Total Project Costs 14,400

Note: All costs are stated in 2013 CDN dollars.

18.4.1.2 Workforce Accommodation Plan Syncrude has procedures in place and dedicated people to ensure that the pre-production and operations workforce accommodation plan meets and/or exceeds regulatory requirements and follows best industry practices. Given Syncrude experience in the SESA, and Syncrude’s plan to retain workers from existing operations that are coming to an end, during pre-production, Syncrude anticipates that 60% of the pre-production workforce will live in the camp, 30% in Fort McMurray and 10% in Fort MacKay. During operations, based on current experience, Syncrude anticipates that the majority of the operations workforce will live in the SESA and below 5% in the camp.

Syncrude intends to use the Mildred Lake Village (MLV) permanent camp to accommodate pre- production and operations workers. The MLV is adjacent to the Syncrude Mildred Lake site. It has a capacity to house up to 2,000 workers. Although it is open to different developers in the area its first priority is to accommodate Syncrude workers.

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During the pre-production phase of the MLX Project, Syncrude may operate a fly in/fly out rotation combined with the local workforce residing in camp or town. For fly in/fly out, Syncrude will use the Shell, Fort McMurray or another regional airport/aerodrome that may become available. In addition, Syncrude will utilize buses between the airstrip and the MLV and between Fort McMurray and the site. No private vehicles, trucks or vans are permitted for this purpose.

18.4.1.3 Work Rotations Schedule The proposed work rotation schedule will be:  pre-production phase, various rotation schedules will be considered including 14 days on/7 days off, 10 days on/4 days off, 6 days on/1 day off with and without nightshift; and  operations phase, similar to the pre-production phase, the operations phase will have various rotation schedules.

18.4.1.4 Camp Management Plan To support the wellness of the workforce at both the MLV and the site, a professional health team consisting of paramedics and occupational nurses will be available 24/7. All of Syncrude’s sites are registered with STARS Air Ambulance. The major health center used for treating sick workers will be The Northern Lights Regional Health Centre in Fort McMurray.

The MLV includes all reasonable amenities consistent with regulatory and industry practices. It offers a variety of recreation facilities including recreation halls, fitness facilities and TV rooms and has a capacity to accommodate the pre-production and operations workforce of the MLX Project.

The Syncrude Tamarack Club, in the MLV, has a recreation coordinator on staff to coordinate additional recreation functions such as ball tournaments, hockey, golf etc. All Syncrude MLV residents are eligible to participate.

The Syncrude Emergency Response Plan provides guidance and system development necessary to ensure that people, the environment, and Syncrude assets are protected before, during, and after an emergency situation.

Syncrude internal camp policies follow the Respectful Work Place and Camp Drug & Alcohol Policies.

18.4.2 Economic Effects 18.4.2.1 Pre-production Economic Effects Project effects on GDP, income and employment during the pre-production phase was calculated using the Statistics Canada 2010 Input Structure for IO Industry BS23C200 - Oil and gas engineering construction. The approach used to estimate the economic effects during the pre-production phase uses the total pre-production expenditures to calculate the economic effects on GDP, labour income and employment in Alberta and the rest of Canada.

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Statistics Canada estimates GDP using three approaches, income-based GDP, expenditure- based GDP and value-added or GDP by industry. The Statistics Canada interprovincial Input- Output economic impact simulation models estimates GDP using the value-added approach, where the total GDP is estimated from the value-added of all the industries impacted by the simulation. In the estimates of direct impact GDP, the 2010 production function for IO industry BS23C200 was modified to remove the value-added components of taxes and subsidies on products and production and operating surplus, which includes depreciation and before-tax profits. These value-added components were removed from the production function because they were either unknown or not relevant (in terms of before-tax profits). As such, the direct GDP estimated for the direct impact is identical to the estimate of labour income, which are the only remaining value-added components of the modified production function (see Tables 18.4-1 and 18.4-3).

Table 18.4-3 summarizes the estimates of impacts on GDP, labour income and employment from the pre-production phase of the MLX Project in Alberta; the rest of Canada and at the national level. Key findings of the IO Model run include the followings:  in total, the MLX Project will directly increase Canada’s GDP by $800 million; of that total $560 million will occur in Alberta and $240 million in the rest of Canada. It will indirectly increase Alberta’s GDP by 1,026 million and the GDP in the rest of Canada by $405 million. Induced MLX Project effects on GDP include an increase of up to $444 million in Alberta and $370 Million in the rest of Canada;  in total, the MLX Project will directly increase Canada’s labour income by $800 million; of that total $560 million will occur in Alberta and $240 million in the rest of Canada. It will indirectly increase Alberta’s labour income by $589 million and increase labour income in the rest of Canada by $245 million. Induced MLX Project effects on labour income include an increase of up to $189 million in Alberta and $190 million in the rest of Canada;  the MLX Project will create up to 10,430 direct full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs, of that total 7,474 FTE jobs will be in Alberta and 2,955 in the rest of Canada. It will indirectly create 7,599 jobs in Alberta and 3,886 in the rest of Canada. Induced Project effects on FTE jobs include 3,309 in Alberta and 3,720 in the rest of Canada;  total national economic effects (direct, indirect and induced) include $3,045 million in GDP, $2,013 million in labour income and 28,941 FTE jobs;  in Alberta, total provincial economic effects (direct, indirect and induced) include $2,030 million in GDP, $1,338 million in labour income and 18,382 FTE jobs;  total economic effects (direct, indirect and induced) on the rest of Canada include $1,015 million in GDP, $675 million in labour income and 10,561 FTE jobs; and  annually, in Alberta, during each pre-production year, the MLX Project will create the equivalent of 830 direct jobs, 844 indirect jobs and 368 induced jobs. The MLX Project will directly increase the GDP by an estimated $62.2 million and the labour income by approximately $62.2 million. Total annual economic impact (direct, indirect and induced) include $225.5 million in GDP, $148.6 million in labour income and 2,042 person-years of employment.

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Table 18.4-3: Pre-production Phase Economic Effects on GDP, Income and Employment at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels

Alberta Rest of Canada Rest of National Economic Effects Alberta National (Pre-production (Pre-production Canada (Pre-production Indicators (Annual) (Annual) Phase) Phase) (Annual) Phase) Output (Core Spending) (mm) Direct impact 2,390 265.5 610 67.7 3,000 333.3 Indirect impact 1,788 198.6 829 92.1 2,617 290.7 Induced impact 707 78.5 680 75.5 1,387 154.1 GDP at Basic Prices (mm) Direct impact (wages 560 62.2 240 26.6 800 88.8 and salaries) Indirect impact 1,026 114.0 405 45.0 1,431 159.0 Induced impact 444 49.3 370 41.1 814 90.4 Total 2,030 225.5 1,015 112.7 3,045 338.2 Labour Income (mm) Direct impact (wages 560 62.2 240 26.6 800 88.8 and salaries) Indirect impact 589 65.4 245 27.2 834 92.6 Induced impact 189 21.0 190 21.1 379 42.1 Total 1,338 148.6 675 74.9 2,013 223.6 Jobs - Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Direct impact 7,474 830.0 2,955 328.0 10,430 1,159.0 Indirect impact 7,599 844.0 3,886 432.0 11,482 1,276.0 Induced impact 3,309 368.0 3,720 413.0 7,029 781.0 Total 18,382 2,042.0 10,561 1,173.0 28,941 3,216.0

Notes: Simple multipliers capture the sum of direct and indirect impacts. They are based on the assumption that households are exogenous and that there is no feedback between wages and production. Total multipliers capture the sum of direct, indirect and induced impacts. Households are treated as endogenous and the payments for labour services, i.e., wages, are redirected in the economy through consumer expenditures. Direct impact measures the initial requirements for an extra dollar's worth of output of a given industry. The direct impact on the output of an industry is a one dollar change in output to meet the change of one dollar in final demand. Associated with this change, there will also be direct impacts on GDP, jobs, and imports. Indirect impact measures the changes due to inter-industry purchases as they respond to the new demands of the directly affected industries. This includes all the chain reaction of output up the production stream since each of the products purchased will require, in turn, the production of various inputs. Induced impact measures the changes in the production of goods and services in response to consumer expenditures induced by households' incomes (i.e., wages) generated by the production of the direct and indirect requirements. FTE: Two types of jobs impacts and multipliers are available: one for the total number of jobs and another which transforms the former into a full-time-equivalent (FTE) number of jobs. The estimate of the total number of jobs covers two main categories: employee jobs and self-employed jobs (including persons working in a family business without pay). The total number of jobs includes full-time, part-time, and temporary jobs. It does not take into account the number of hours worked per employee. FTE jobs include both the employee and self-employed jobs but the FTE transformation only applies to employee jobs. The transformation is based on the overall average full-time hours worked in the business and government sectors.

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During pre-production, MLX Project effects on the provincial economy (including GDP, income and employment) will be provincial in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, short- term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be moderate.

During pre-production, MLX Project effects on the national and rest of Canada economy (including GDP, income and employment) will be national in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be low.

18.4.2.2 Operations Economic Effects MLX Project effects on GDP, income and labour during the operations phase is calculated using the Statistics Canada 2010 Input Structure for IO Industry BS211114 - Non-conventional oil extraction. The approach used to estimate the economic effects during the operations phase uses the total operations expenditures to calculate the economic effects on GDP, labour income and employment in Alberta and the rest of Canada. Similar to the pre-production phase, income based GDP was used in this assessment.

Table 18.4-4 summarizes the estimates of impacts on GDP, labour income and jobs from the operations of the MLX Project in Alberta, the rest of Canada and at the national level. Key findings of the IO Model run include the followings:  in total, the MLX Project will directly increase Canada’s GDP by $5,800 million; all of which will occur in Alberta. It will indirectly increase Alberta’s GDP by $4,418 million and the GDP in the rest of Canada by $1,801 million. Induced Project effects on GDP include an increase of up to $3,187 million in Alberta and $1,521 million in the rest of Canada;  in total, the MLX Project will directly increase Canada’s labour income by $5,800 million; all of which will occur in Alberta. It will indirectly increase Alberta’s labour income by $2,551 million and increase labour income in the rest of Canada by $1,092 million. Induced Project effects on labour income include an increase of up to $1,355 million in Alberta and $819 million in the rest of Canada;  the MLX Project will create up to 28,084 direct FTE jobs, all direct jobs will be in Alberta. It will indirectly create 29,967 jobs in Alberta and 17,046 in the rest of Canada. Induced Project effects on FTE jobs include 23,811 in Alberta and 15,887 in the rest of Canada;  total national economic effects (direct, indirect and induced) include $16,728 million in GDP, $11,617 million in labour income and 114,794 FTE jobs;  in Alberta, total provincial economic effects (direct, indirect and induced) include $13,405 million in GDP, $9,706 million in labour income and 81,862 FTE jobs;  total economic effects (direct, indirect and induced) on the rest of Canada include $3,322 million in GDP, $1,911 million in labour income and 32,933 FTE jobs; and  annually, in Alberta, during each operations year, the project will create the equivalent of 669 direct jobs, 714 indirect jobs and 567 induced jobs. The project will directly increase the GDP by $138 million and the labour income by approximately $138 million. Total annual economic impact (direct, indirect and induced) includes $319 million in GDP, $231 million in labour income and 1,949 person-years of employment.

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Table 18.4-4: Operations Phase Economic Effects on GDP, Income and Employment at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels

Alberta Rest of Canada Rest of National Economic Effects Alberta National (Operations (Operations Canada (Operations Indicators (Annual) (Annual) Phase) Phase) (Annual) Phase) Output (Core Spending) (mm) Direct impact 13,885 331 515 12 14,400 343 Indirect impact 7,651 182 3,510 84 11,161 266 Induced impact 5,061 121 2,929 70 7,990 190 GDP at Basic Prices (mm) Direct impact 5,800 138 0 0 5,800 138 Indirect impact 4,418 105 1,801 43 6,220 148 Induced impact 3,187 76 1,521 36 4,708 112 Total 13,405 319 3,322 79 16,728 398 Labour Income (mm) Direct impact 5,800 138 0 0 5,800 138 Indirect impact 2,551 61 1,092 26 3,643 87 Induced impact 1,355 32 819 20 2,174 52 Total 9,706 231 1,911 46 11,617 276 Jobs - Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Direct impact 28,084 669 0 0 28,084 669 Indirect impact 29,967 714 17,046 406 47,013 1,119 Induced impact 23,811 567 15,887 378 39,697 945 Total 81,862 1,949 32,933 784 114,794 2733

Notes: Simple multipliers capture the sum of direct and indirect impacts. They are based on the assumption that households are exogenous and that there is no feedback between wages and production. Total multipliers capture the sum of direct, indirect and induced impacts. Households are treated as endogenous and the payments for labour services, i.e., wages, are redirected in the economy through consumer expenditures. Direct impact measures the initial requirements for an extra dollar's worth of output of a given industry. The direct impact on the output of an industry is a one dollar change in output to meet the change of one dollar in final demand. Associated with this change, there will also be direct impacts on GDP, jobs, and imports. Indirect impact measures the changes due to inter-industry purchases as they respond to the new demands of the directly affected industries. This includes all the chain reaction of output up the production stream since each of the products purchased will require, in turn, the production of various inputs. Induced impact measures the changes in the production of goods and services in response to consumer expenditures induced by households' incomes (i.e., wages) generated by the production of the direct and indirect requirements. FTE: Two types of jobs impacts and multipliers are available: one for the total number of jobs and another which transforms the former into a full-time-equivalent (FTE) number of jobs. The estimate of the total number of jobs covers two main categories: employee jobs and self-employed jobs (including persons working in a family business without pay). The total number of jobs includes full-time, part-time, and temporary jobs. It does not take into account the number of hours worked per employee. FTE jobs include both the employee and self-employed jobs but the FTE transformation only applies to employee jobs. The transformation is based on the overall average full-time hours worked in the business and government sectors.

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During operations, MLX Project effects on the provincial economy (including GDP, income and employment) will be Provincial in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be moderate.

During operations, MLX Project effects on the national and rest of Canada economy (including GDP, income and employment) will be national and provincial in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be low.

18.4.2.3 Effects on Taxes In total, the pre-production phase of the MLX Project will generate an estimated $11.5 million in Federal taxes, $22.5 million in provincial taxes and $16.7 million in municipal taxes. Of that total, $8.5 million in Federal taxes, $10 million in Provincial taxes and $9.3 million in Municipal taxes will occur in Alberta and the rest in other parts of Canada (Table 18.4-5).

Table 18.4-5: Pre-production Phase Effects on Federal, Provincial and Municipal Taxes in Alberta and Rest of Canada

Rest of Alberta Total Canada Total Impact, Open Model (mm) Total Federal 8.5 3 11.5 Taxes on products 8.4 2.9 11.3 Taxes on production 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total Provincial 10 12.5 22.5 Taxes on products 5.2 9.5 14.8 Taxes on production 4.7 3 7.7 Total Municipal 9.3 7.4 16.7 Taxes on products 0 0.03 0.03 Taxes on production 9.3 7.3 16.6 Total 27.8 22.8 50.7 Total Impact, Closed Model (mm) Total Federal 40 19 59 Taxes on products 39.8 18.8 58.7 Taxes on production 0.2 0.2 0.4 Total Provincial 44.6 45.9 90.4 Taxes on products 30.1 36.2 66.2 Taxes on production 14.4 9.7 24.2 Total Municipal 28.1 26.8 55 Taxes on products 0 0.06 0.06 Taxes on production 28.1 26.7 54.9 Total 113 91.7 204.6

Note: Model results included in the above table are only taxes on products and taxes on production. The model results do not provide any information on personal or corporate income taxes.

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During construction, the MLX Project effects on Alberta taxes will be provincial in extent, positive in direction, medium in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be moderate.

During pre-production, MLX Project effects on the national and rest of Canada taxes (Federal, provincial and municipal) will be national, provincial and municipal in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be low.

In total, the operations of the MLX Project will generate an estimate of $68 million in Federal taxes, $107.8 million in provincial taxes and $100.3 million in municipal taxes. Of that total, $50.4 million in Federal taxes, $58.7 million in Provincial taxes and $60.5 million in Municipal taxes will occur in Alberta and the rest in other parts of Canada (Table 18.4-6).

Table 18.4-6: Operations Phase Effects on Federal, Provincial and Municipal Taxes in Alberta and Rest of Canada

Alberta Rest of Canada Total Total Impact, Open Model (mm) Total Federal 50.4 67.9 68.0 Taxes on products 50.0 67.0 67.1 Taxes on production 0.4 0.8 0.8 Total Provincial 58.7 107.7 107.8 Taxes on products 27.6 59.8 59.8 Taxes on production 31.0 47.8 47.9 Total Municipal 60.5 100.2 100.3 Taxes on products 0.0 0.1 0.1 Taxes on production 60.5 100.1 100.2 Total 169.7 276.0 276.2 Total Impact, Closed Model (mm) Total Federal 279.6 345.9 346.1 Taxes on products 278.0 343.3 343.6 Taxes on production 1.5 2.5 2.5 Total Provincial 309.5 466.2 466.5 Taxes on products 208.4 322.4 322.6 Taxes on production 101.1 143.7 143.8 Total Municipal 197.2 298.7 298.9 Taxes on products 0.0 0.3 0.3 Taxes on production 197.2 298.4 298.6 Total 786.4 1,110.8 1,111.6

Note: Model results included in the above table are only taxes on products and taxes on production. The model results do not provide any information on personal or corporate income taxes.

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During operations, MLX Project effects on Alberta taxes will be provincial in extent, positive in direction, medium in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be moderate.

During operations, MLX Project effects on national and rest of Canada taxes (Federal, provincial and municipal) will be national, provincial and municipal in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, long -term in duration and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be low.

18.4.2.4 Effects by Industry The pre-production of the MLX Project will have positive effects on other industries’ output. In total, it will increase the output of all other industries by $5,617.2 million, about 74.4% of that total will occur in Alberta and the rest in other parts of Canada.

Specifically, the MLX Project will increase the output of the Engineering Construction industry by three billion dollars, of which approximately 80% will occur in Alberta (Table 18.4-7). Output in the Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction industry will be increased by $932 million, of which approximately 86% will occur in Alberta. Output in the Manufacturing industry will be increased by $533.8 million, of which approximately 50% will occur in Alberta. Output in the Professional, scientific and technical services industry will be increased by $399.3 million, of which approximately 73% will occur in Alberta.

The operations of the MLX Project will have positive effects on other industries’ output. In total, it will increase the output of all other industries by $25,561.1 million, of which approximately 84.2% will occur in Alberta.

Specifically, the MLX Project will increase the output of the Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction industry by $16,834.7 million, of which approximately 95% will occur in Alberta (Table 18.4-8). Output in the Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing & holding companies industry will be increased by $2,341.7 million, of which approximately 58% will occur in Alberta. Output in the Professional, scientific and technical services industry will be increased by $1,547.2 million, of which approximately 75.4% will occur in Alberta.

18.4.2.5 Regional and Local Economic Effects Direct Expenditures During the pre-production phase, approximately 50% ($1,500 million) of the expenditures are anticipated to be spent on equipment and materials, 26.6% ($800 million) on labour costs, including benefits, and 23.3% ($700 million) on engineering and management. Within the SESA these expenditures account for approximately 10% of the equipment and materials costs, 60% of the labour and benefits costs, and 20% of the engineering and management costs (Table 18.4-1).

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Table 18.4-7: MLX Project Construction Effects by Industry at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels (Open Model: Direct and Indirect)

Rest of Industry Output Open Model (Direct and Indirect) Alberta Total Canada Industries (Summary Level) ($ mm) 1 BS11A Crop and animal production 1.9 2.2 4.1 2 BS113 Forestry and logging 0.3 1.1 1.4 3 BS114 Fishing, hunting and trapping 0.1 0.2 0.3 4 BS115 Support activities for agriculture and forestry 0.4 0.4 0.8 5 BS210 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 798.0 134.0 932.0 6 BS220 Utilities 12.6 10.9 23.5 7 BS23A Residential construction 0.1 0.0 0.1 8 BS23B Non-residential building construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 BS23C Engineering construction 2,390.0 610.0 3,000.0 10 BS23D Repair construction 9.5 4.0 13.5 11 BS23E Other activities of the construction industry 3.5 1.1 4.6 12 BS3A0 Manufacturing 264.7 269.1 533.8 13 BS410 Wholesale trade 113.2 64.2 177.4 14 BS4A0 Retail trade 17.7 10.0 27.7 15 BS4B0 Transportation and warehousing 54.5 57.5 112.0 16 BS510 Information and cultural industries 19.4 20.4 39.8 17 BS5B0 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 125.8 92.0 217.8 and holding companies 18 BS53C Owner occupied dwellings 0.0 0.0 0.0 19 BS540 Professional, scientific and technical services 290.8 108.5 399.3 20 BS560 Administrative and support, waste management 36.8 26.2 63.0 and remediation services 21 BS610 Educational services 0.6 0.5 1.1 22 BS620 Health care and social assistance 0.4 1.2 1.6 23 BS710 Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.2 1.1 2.3 24 BS720 Accommodation and food services 7.3 5.7 13.0 25 BS810 Other services (except public administration) 16.3 5.7 22.0 26 FC100 Repair, maintenance and operating and office 0.0 0.0 0.0 supplies 27 FC200 Advertising, promotion, meals, entertainment, and 0.0 0.0 0.0 travel 28 FC300 Transportation margins 0.0 0.0 0.0 29 NP000 Non-profit institutions serving households 0.5 0.5 1.0 30 GS610 Government education services 3.3 1.9 5.2 31 GS620 Government health services 0.6 0.7 1.3 32 GS911 Other federal government services 1.0 3.6 4.6 33 GS912 Other provincial and territorial government services 1.1 3.6 4.7 34 GS913 Other municipal government services 5.7 3.1 8.8 35 GS914 Other Aboriginal government services 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 41.0 14.0 56.0

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Table 18.4-8: MLX Project Operations Effects by Industry at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels (Open Model: Direct and Indirect)

Rest of Industry Output Open Model (Direct and Indirect) Alberta Total Canada Industries (Summary level) (MM) 1 BS11A Crop and animal production 15.1 12.5 27.6 2 BS113 Forestry and logging 2.5 6.0 8.5 3 BS114 Fishing, hunting and trapping 0.1 0.0 0.1 4 BS115 Support activities for agriculture and forestry 1.2 1.4 2.6 5 BS210 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 15,960.0 874.7 16,834.7 6 BS220 Utilities 430.5 77.5 508.0 7 BS23A Residential construction 0.1 0.0 0.1 8 BS23B Non-residential building construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 BS23C Engineering construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 BS23D Repair construction 94.2 21.8 116.0 11 BS23E Other activities of the construction industry 38.9 4.7 43.6 12 BS3A0 Manufacturing 868.8 645.7 1,514.5 13 BS410 Wholesale trade 480.5 209.5 690.0 14 BS4A0 Retail trade 94.5 38.8 133.3 15 BS4B0 Transportation and warehousing 320.6 334.3 654.9 16 BS510 Information and cultural industries 188.8 142.7 331.5 17 BS5B0 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 1,354.0 987.7 2,341.7 and holding companies 18 BS53C Owner occupied dwellings 0.0 0.0 0.0 19 BS540 Professional, scientific and technical services 1,167.5 379.7 1,547.2 20 BS560 Administrative and support, waste management 259.3 165.3 424.6 and remediation services 21 BS610 Educational services 5.4 3.5 8.9 22 BS620 Health care and social assistance 2.6 3.2 5.8 23 BS710 Arts, entertainment and recreation 11.7 7.7 19.4 24 BS720 Accommodation and food services 49.1 31.6 80.7 25 BS810 Other services (except public administration) 124.6 30.6 155.2 26 FC100 Repair, maintenance and operating and office 0.0 0.0 0.0 supplies 27 FC200 Advertising, promotion, meals, entertainment, and 0.0 0.0 0.0 travel 28 FC300 Transportation margins 0.0 0.0 0.0 29 NP000 Non-profit institutions serving households 3.3 2.8 6.1 30 GS610 Government education services 11.3 5.9 17.2 31 GS620 Government health services 5.0 3.9 8.9 32 GS911 Other federal government services 7.6 11.2 18.8 33 GS912 Other provincial and territorial government services 7.1 9.4 16.5 34 GS913 Other municipal government services 31.1 13.1 44.2 35 GS914 Other Aboriginal government services 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 21,536.2 4,024.9 25,561.1

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During the operations phase, approximately 48% ($6900 million) of the pre-production expenditures are anticipated to be spent on equipment and materials, 40% ($5,800 million) on labour costs, including benefits, and 12% ($1700 million) on engineering and management. Within the SESA these expenditures account for approximately 70% of the equipment and materials costs, 40% of the labour and benefits costs, and 12% of the engineering and management costs (Table 18.4-2).

Employment During the pre-production phase, the SESA will benefit from the employment opportunities that will be created by the MLX Project. Syncrude anticipates hiring the majority of the workforce (835 persons, or 72%) from the SESA and elsewhere in Alberta, with a preference to hire from within the SESA. Syncrude will continue to use its existing initiatives and programs to address workforce needs (see Section 18.3.4).

Similar to the pre-production phase, during operations the SESA will benefit from the employment opportunities that will be created by the MLX Project. Syncrude anticipates hiring 90% of the operations workforce (502 persons) from the SESA. Syncrude will continue to use its existing initiatives and programs to address workforce needs (see Section 18.3.4).

During both the pre-production and operations phases, in order to encourage the participation of local and regional residents within the SESA in the MLX Project, Syncrude will:  identify and communicate detailed employment and contract work requirements (timing, occupations, skills, experience) on a timely basis;  communicate opportunities early so regional residents are able to consider upgrading their education, training and skills in order to respond to opportunities;  assess the availability of regional skills and labour resources;  give primary consideration to qualified regional and local Aboriginal residents for employment opportunities;  encourage contractors to apply Syncrude’s regional employment policies;  identify barriers to regional employment (e.g., education, training, work experience) and participate with others (e.g., communities, government departments, educational institutions, etc.) in conjunction with Syncrude’s ongoing capacity building initiatives to overcome these barriers (e.g., training programs, scholarships, on-the-job training, etc.); and  provide cross-cultural awareness training to supervisors who will be working with both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal employees to increase cross-cultural understanding.

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Business Opportunities As of 2012 Syncrude reported business volume with companies owned by Aboriginal entrepreneurs and First Nations in the Wood Buffalo region at $287 million (see Section 18.3.4). During both the pre-production and operations phases of the MLX Project, Syncrude will continue with its previously described practices and work to expand its procurement of Aboriginal companies, particularly in these areas:  road and site maintenance;  fleet maintenance;  medical;  waste management;  camp services;  janitorial;  coffee and water supplies;  power/hot shot services;  geotechnical;  reclamation;  water hauling;  pipelining;  aggregate excavation and hauling; and  module/fabrication.

Syncrude specific commitments to support local business participation include:  use local suppliers of goods and services that are competitive and meet safety, technical and quality standards and timing needs;  provide information and training on procurement processes, safety standards and expectations of business conduct; and  develop local content plans, which address employment of local residents and the amount of work subcontracted to local businesses, as a factor in evaluating and awarding contracts.

Additional procedures that Syncrude will continue to use in order to enhance local procurement opportunities include:  identify and communicate known future requirements on a timely basis, to inform existing businesses and to assist and encourage business development in the SESA;  give priority to qualified regional suppliers so as to maximize purchases of goods and services in the SESA;  communication of regional procurement policies to its contractors;

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 encourage contractors to breakdown the scope of their work packages such that local businesses could bid for a portion of the work package;  apply a tendering and bid system (for pre-qualification, evaluation, selection and award) that treats regional contractors equitably;  participate in capacity building initiatives (e.g., supporting local business development, establishment of alliances, etc.);  support community endeavors intended to further business and economic development opportunities;  offer timely and honest debriefing of unsuccessful local goods/services providers when requested;  give preference to regional and Aboriginal goods/services providers, assuming all else is equal; and  receive and respond to telephone inquiries.

MLX Project effects on the regional and local economy (including expenditures, employment, and business) will be regional in extent, positive in direction, moderate in magnitude, short-term in duration during construction and long term during operations, continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be moderate.

18.4.3 Aboriginal Benefits Aboriginal people are expected to benefit from the economic effects of the MLX Project. Syncrude will retain its workforce from existing operations of which more than 9% are Aboriginal. Syncrude also expects to spend 25% of the pre-production expenditures and 68% of the operations expenditures in the SESA. These estimates include benefits to local residents and businesses.

Syncrude oil sands initiatives and programs (Section 18.3.4) to promote the participation of local residents and local businesses in Syncrude projects apply to the MLX Project and to Aboriginal people and Aboriginal businesses. Further, Syncrude support of Aboriginal people in the SESA (Section 18.3.14.2) will continue during the MLX Project. In addition to those initiatives and local and regional purchasing enhancement measures, the MLX Project will enhance Aboriginal workforce and businesses participation through:  continue to provide educational programs and recruiting practices that facilitate employment of qualified Aboriginal people;  continue to provide internal training and development programs that enhance retention of Aboriginal employees throughout the company;  continue to address workplace barriers that may exist and that hinder Aboriginal employees from doing their jobs effectively;  continue to provide information and training on Syncrude’s procurement processes, safety standards and expectations of business conduct; and

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 continue to develop local content plans, which address employment of Aboriginal people and the amount of work subcontracted to Aboriginal businesses, as a factor in evaluating and awarding contracts.

In addition, the MLX Project will, for each announced work package or job opportunity:  advertise internally and locally;  encourage contractors to breakdown the scope of their work packages such that local Aboriginal businesses could bid for a portion of the work package;  consider local Aboriginal content in the award of work packages; and  inform local Aboriginal businesses of the procurement process and project standards in advance of the request for bids and awarding of work packages.

With the above, the project effects on Aboriginal benefits will be regional in extent, positive in direction, moderate to low in magnitude, short-term in duration during pre-production and long- term during operations, and continuous with a high confidence level. The final effect will be low.

18.4.4 Population Effects 18.4.4.1 Pre-production Phase There will be an average of 1,159 direct workers annually during the pre-production phase. The majority of the workforce will be recruited from the SESA; up to 40% (463 workers) will be local residents from existing operations that are coming to an end and up to 60% (696 workers) will be new hires. The peak pre-production workforce will be approximately 1,800 in years: 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Procedures and dedicated people will be in place to ensure that the pre-production workforce accommodation plan meets and/or exceeds regulatory requirements and follows best industry practices.

The MLX Project will utilize buses between the airstrip and the camp and between Fort McMurray and the site. No private vehicles, trucks or vans are permitted for the MLX Project workforce (additional details are provided in Volume 3, Appendix M).

The MLX Project will house 60% pre-production workers in the MLV camp and the remaining 40% are anticipated to be existing residents (30% in Fort McMurray and 10% in Fort MacKay). Pre-production workers who will choose to reside in the camp are not expected to establish residence themselves or relocate their families to the SESA during the pre-production phase. As a result, there will be no appreciable population effect on the communities of the SESA.

The MLX Project effect on population will be local in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

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18.4.4.2 Operations The total annual average number of operations workers is estimated at 669. The MLX Project anticipates that up to 83% (555 workers) of the operations workforce will be transferred from the exiting mining operations at the North Mine and the remaining 17% (114 workers) will be new hires from the SESA and the rest of Alberta.

Operations workers transferred from the North Mine are local residents in the SESA, and will, therefore, have no effects on the demography of the study area. Depending on labour availability, Syncrude preference is to hire the remaining 17% of the workforce from within the SESA and from other parts of Alberta. Based on current experience, Syncrude anticipates that the majority of the operations workers will live in the SESA. However, since this is a lifestyle decision, the following are assumed to calculate the number of workers that will choose to live in the SESA.

The portion of the operations workers from outside the SESA that choose to relocate to the SESA will have effects on the population of the SESA due to the employment multiplier effect. In order to estimate this effect, the following assumptions are made:  those who choose to relocate to the SESA will require a relatively shorter commuting distance to the site, during rotation, as well as reasonable housing costs, and may choose to live in the new residential area of Parsons Creek, located north of Timberlea and west of Highway 63 in the northern part of Fort McMurray;  the average family size in the SESA, Alberta and Canada is three persons (Statistics Canada 2011);  according to the Oil Sands Developers Group for every one operations job, three jobs are created in the local region (indirect and induced); and  there are 2.3 employed persons per family in the SESA (Statistics Canada 2006).

Based on the above, the MLX Project would directly add 114 workers to the local population and an additional 342 workers due to the indirect and induced multiplier effect (i.e., 114 x 3) for a total of 456 workers. Assuming that there are 2.3 employed persons per family moving into the region, this would result in 198 families or a total of 594 people (3 persons/family) as the MLX Project contribution to the population of the SESA.

The arrival of approximately 594 people to the SESA could result in a minor change (0.49% increase) in its demography, which is within the accommodating capacity of the SESA.

The MLX Project effect on population will be local in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

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18.4.5 Effects on Education Services 18.4.5.1 Pre-production Phase During the pre-production phase of the MLX Project, the potential effects on education services will be limited to labour force demand for industry related training courses offered by Keyano College in Fort McMurray. With the use of the camp and other existing Syncrude employees from operations that are coming to an end, there will be no additional demand on regional schools as pre-production workers from outside the SESA are not expected to bring their families.

With Syncrude’s support and investments in education services in the SESA (see Section 18.3.7.3), the current capacity of Keyano College and its ability to offer these training courses for industry, the MLX Project effect on education services will be regional in extent, positive in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.5.2 Operations Phase During the operations phase of the MLX Project, potential regional effects on education services could include the labour force demand for industry related training courses offered by Keyano College and the demand for primary and secondary schooling by family members of MLX Project staff that move to the SESA. As calculated in Section 18.4.4.2, the MLX Project contribution to the population of the SESA is approximately 198 families or a total of 594 people (3 persons/family). Given that the average number of persons in all census families in Alberta is 3.0, and an assumption that there is one child of school age for each family, there could be approximately 198 dependents that require schooling. Taking into account current enrolment and capacity of schools in SESA, the arrival of 198 additional students could be accommodated. As for demand for industry training, given the current capacity of Keyano College and its ability to offer training and education services for the industry in a growing community, the effect on adult education would be positive.

Syncrude will continue to support educational and training activities in the SESA by collaborating with educational institutions (i.e., Keyano College) to increase the participation of local residents in the MLX Project (see Section 18.3.7.3). Therefore, the MLX Project effect on education will be regional in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

18.4.6 Effects on Housing Services 18.4.6.1 Pre-production Phase Approximately 40% of the pre-production workforce will be local residents in the SESA. Workers from outside the SESA are unlikely to bring their families. The pre-production workforce from outside the SESA will be housed in the MLV camp whereas the workforce from within the SESA will maintain their residence in Fort McMurray and Fort MacKay and commute to work using

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Syncrude bussing plan. Therefore, the MLX Project effect on housing services will be local in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.6.2 Operations Phase Syncrude anticipates transferring up to 83% of the operations workforce from the North Mine and 17% from within the SESA and other parts in Alberta. Arrival of up to 198 families or 594 people in the SESA will require about 198 accommodation units (the average household size in the SESA is 2.8). Housing capacity in the SESA has seen a remarkable expansion, and there is an increase in the rental vacancy rate. In 2012, additional crown land was released and made available for developers to build additional housing for up to 1,000 families. A new residential development is planned between the two new communities of Parsons Creek and Saline Creek. The first homes in Parsons Creek are expected to be ready in 2014. By the time the operations phase starts, in 2018, the new housing starts will be available in Parsons Creek plus other rental options also will be available to cover the demand of new comers to the RMWB. Further, Syncrude will continue to offer its Housing Support Program for Fort McMurray Employees (see Section 18.3.4).

The Syncrude housing initiative and the current capacity of housing in the SESA suggest that there will be enough housing supply and support in the RMWB, specifically north to Timberlea in Parsons Creek, to easily accommodate the needs of operations workers who choose to relocate to the SESA. Therefore, the MLX Project effect on housing will be local and regional in extent, positive in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

18.4.7 Effects on Utilities Services 18.4.7.1 Pre-production Phase Power generation capabilities currently in place at the Mildred Lake site are adequate to support the MLX Project. Power supply for both MLX-W and MLX-E will be provided through the existing power distribution system at the Mildred Lake site. Power distribution to the mine operation and outlying areas will be at 72 kV. The onsite utility plan includes:  obtain domestic and utility water from a central processing facility (CPF);  send all sanitary sewage for treatment at an appropriate offsite facility;  disposal of sewage sludge at an appropriate offsite facility;  keep solid waste in appropriate containers and truck for disposal or recycling to an appropriate facility; and  implement a recycling program that includes using energy efficient lighting and recycling, where possible, batteries, light bulbs; paper and cardboard, non-contaminated plastics, non-contaminated food wastes, non-contaminated wood waste, scrap metal, and oil filters.

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More information is available about the project plans for water and waste management in Volume 1, Section 8.0.

The MLV camp will use potable water from the Syncrude potable water facility and wastewater will be trucked to the RMWB wastewater treatment plant. The camp has local electricity generators.

With Syncrude water and wastewater plans (see Sections 18.3.9.1 and 18.3.9.2), MLX Project plans and the current capacity of utility services in the RMWB, the MLX Project effect will be local in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.7.2 Operations Phase The MLX Project’s utility use during operations will be similar to that of the pre-production phase for potable water, domestic wastewater, solid waste and recycling. An increase of up to 33 people to the SESA population will not create substantial additional pressure on municipal utility services. According to the RMWB, the current utility services plans are designed to satisfy projected populations for the year 2030, with a benchmark population of 265,000 in mind (Guerin pers. comm. 2013).

Therefore, the MLX Project effect on utility services will be regional in extent, positive in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

18.4.8 Effects on Protective Services 18.4.8.1 Pre-production Phase The MLX Project will minimize additional demand on fire and emergency services in the SESA during the pre-production phase by the following:  providing fire and emergency services as required to adhere to Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety Guidelines for isolated worksites;  providing firefighting equipment and workers with firefighting training at the works sites and coordinate with other nearby Syncrude sites and other nearby operators to ensure effective use of firefighting equipment and workers with firefighting training in the area; and  providing appropriate health and safety training, on a regular basis, to all workforce.

The MLV Camp fire and emergency services meet all Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety requirements.

The MLX Project effect on fire and emergency services will be local in extent, negative in direction (due to potential demands on the public EMS for ambulances, med-evac), low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

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Syncrude will implement the following site policies to reduce MLX Project requirements for policing services during the pre-production phase:  no firearms or hunting bows will be permitted;  alcohol and substance abuse policy;  motor vehicle safety policy; and  respectful workplace policy (addresses harassment, fighting, theft, and cross-cultural awareness).

The MLV Camp has a well-established security plan and security personnel.

With the mitigation measures in place and the recent increase in police numbers in the region coupled with the associated improvements in policing services, the MLX Project impact on SESA policing services will be local in extent, negative in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.8.2 Operations Phase Syncrude will minimize additional demand on fire and emergency services in the SESA during the operations phase by adopting the same mitigation measures discussed during pre- production:  providing fire and emergency services as required to adhere to Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety Guidelines for isolated worksites;  coordinating with other nearby Syncrude sites and other nearby operators to ensure effective use of firefighting equipment and works with firefighting training in the area; and  providing appropriate health and safety training on a regular bases to all operations workforce.

The MLX Project effect on protective services will be local in extent, negative in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

For MLX Project demands on policing services, the same mitigation measures will apply as in the pre-production phase, but the workforce will be much smaller. The arrival of up to 48 people from outside the SESA is expected to have a low effect on RCMP policing services in the SESA. Given the mitigation measures described, effects of the MLX Project on SESA policing services will be local in extent, negative in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

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18.4.9 Effects on Health Services 18.4.9.1 Pre-production Phase Syncrude HSE Initiatives in the SESA apply to the MLX Project (see Section 18.3.10.1). Further, the following Syncrude policies and practices will reduce the project effects on regional health services:  providing fire and emergency services as required to adhere to Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety Guidelines for isolated worksites;  safety programs at the site that address the unique functions and hazards of a major construction site and operations facility; and  camp policies that will promote a healthy diet and good hygiene as ways to reduce the spread of infectious disease.

In addition, the capacity of the NLRHC has seen a remarkable expansion during the last two years. Taking into consideration the MLX Project mitigation measures mentioned above, incremental demand for health care services in the RMWB during the pre-production phase of the MLX Project is expected to be low and within the expanded capacity of NLRHC.

The MLX Project effect on health services will be local in extent, negative in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.9.2 Operations Phase The same mitigation measures will apply during the operations phase as for the pre-production phase, but the workforce will be much smaller for operations. Further, an assumption is made that similar to other oil sands projects in the area, only 5% of the non-local operations workforce will choose to move to the SESA.

With in-migration of up to 33 people from outside the SESA, the MLX Project effect on health services will be local in extent, negative in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

18.4.10 Effects on Recreation and Leisure Services 18.4.10.1 Pre-production Phase The pre-production workforce from within the SESA will maintain their residence in Fort McMurray and Fort MacKay whereas the workforce from outside the SESA will be housed in the MLV camp which offers a variety of amenities, including leisure space at the Tamarack Club. The Tamarack club, located within the MLV camp, has a recreation coordinator and a staff to coordinate additional recreation functions. Further, Syncrude supports recreation and leisure services and activities in the SESA (see Section 18.4.1.2).

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The MLX Project effect on social services will be local in extent, negative in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

18.4.12 Closure Additional socio-economic effects are not predicted to occur during the closure phase.

18.4.13 Application Case Summary The Application Case effects are summarized in Table 18.4-9.

18.4.14 Mitigation and Monitoring Proposed mitigation and monitoring is summarized in Table 18.4-10.

18.5 Planned Development Case Other oil sands projects identified in the SESA, Section 18.3.1, and Petroleum Human Resources Council projections of new oil sand jobs by source, Figure 18.3-1, are the main drivers of cumulative effects. Although this socio-economic assessment is inherently cumulative, some additional cumulative effects including economic effects, traffic and transportation effects and health effects were considered.

Cumulative socio-economic benefits are sensitive to the capacity of the local economy to absorb incremental opportunities; there may be competition for human and business resources. Cumulative negative socio-economic effects are sensitive to the ability of service providers, usually local, regional and the provincial governments, to adjust to increased demands for infrastructure and public services. Although there is usually a time-lag between increases in this demand first occurs and when government revenues from increased economic activity are received, adjustments do occur over time. Overlapping construction periods with other similar projects in the area represent the highest risk for a demand-capacity gap and could represent a management challenge.

18.5.1 Pre-production Phase Other oil sands projects in proximity to the MLX Project are in various stages of approval, development and operations. The overlap of the MLX Project pre-production phase with other identified oil sands projects should not affect Syncrude’s ability to hire from the local labour pool. Syncrude has existing initiatives and programs to deal with workforce shortages and these will continue during the MLX Project.

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Availability of indoor and outdoor recreation equipment and activities at the camp should greatly reduce the demand by project workers to use other recreation facilities in the RMWB.

The MLX Project effect on recreation and leisure services will be local in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.10.2 Operations Phase Operations workers hired from within the SESA will have no additional effect on the existing recreation facilities. The availability of recreation facilities near the worksite and the preference to use them to minimize traveling will minimize effects on existing recreational facilities. The MLX Project in-migration of up to 594 (0.49% increase in the SESA population) people to the RMWB will have a low effect on recreation and leisure facilities.

The MLX Project effect on recreation and leisure services will be local in extent, negative to neutral in direction, low in magnitude, long-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the operations phase.

18.4.11 Effects on Social Services 18.4.11.1 Pre-production Phase Workers hired from within the SESA will have no additional effect on the existing social services. The pre-production workforce hired from outside the SESA will be temporary residents in the region (shadow population) and will be there without their families. Demands for social services are expected to be minimal as family violence, marriage and parental conflicts should be minimal among workers in the camp. Syncrude will provide transportation services for workers within and outside the SESA during the work rotation. As such, workers are not expected to remain in the SESA when not on shift.

The MLX Project effect on social services will be local in extent, neutral in direction, low in magnitude, short-term in duration and continuous with a moderate confidence level. The final effect will be low during the pre-production phase.

18.4.11.2 Operations Phase The operations transferred from the North Mine are local residents and will create no additional pressure on the social services in the SESA as they are already included in current demands on social services. The in-migration of up to 594 people from outside the SESA will not create additional pressure on the SESA’s social services as the RMWB has capacity to accommodate moderate population growth. Further, all Syncrude employees will have access to corporate social counseling services.

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Table 18.4-9: Summary of Application Case Effects

Geographic Final Effect Indicator Direction Magnitude Duration Frequency Confidence Extent Rating Pre-production Phase Economy Positive Provincial and Moderate Short-term Continuous High Low to National Moderate Aboriginal Positive Regional Moderate to Low Short-term Continuous High Low Benefits Population Neutral Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Education Neutral Regional Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Housing Neutral Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Utilities Neutral Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Protective Negative Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Services Health Services Negative Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Recreations and Neutral Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Leisure Social Services Neutral Local Low Short-term Continuous Moderate Low Operations Phase Economy Positive Provincial and Moderate Long-term Continuous High Moderate National Aboriginal Positive Regional Moderate to Low Long-term Continuous High Low Benefits Population Positive Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Education Positive Regional Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Housing Positive Regional Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Utilities Positive Regional Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Protective Negative Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Services Health Services Negative Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Recreations and Negative- Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Leisure Neutral Social Services Negative Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low

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Table 18.4-10: Summary of Proposed Mitigation and Monitoring

Impact Mitigation Monitoring Pre-production Economy  Positive effects, no mitigation required. n/a Aboriginal Benefits  Positive effects, no mitigation required. n/a Population  Use of the fly-in/ fly-out MLV work camp (pre-production). n/a Education  Syncrude investment in educations services in the SESA. n/a Housing  The Pre-production workforce will be housed in the MLV work camp. n/a Utilities  Power will be supplied through the existing system at the Mildred Lake n/a site.  Domestic and utility water will be supplied using the CPF.  An industrial recycling program will be used. Protective  Syncrude will adhere to Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety n/a Services Guidelines for isolated worksites.  Firefighting equipment and training will be provided to employees.  Appropriate health and safety training will be provided to the workforce on a regular basis.  A Project-specific Emergency Response plan will be utilized.  The MLV work camp fire and emergency services meet all of Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety requirements.  The MLV work camp follows a security plan and security personnel.  No firearms or hunting bows are permitted on the Project site.  Syncrude has an alcohol and substance abuse policy, a motor vehicle safety policy, and a respectful workplace policy. Health Services  Emergency services will be provided as required according to Alberta’s n/a Occupational Health and Safety Guidelines for isolated worksites.  Safety programs will be followed at the Pre-production site that address the unique functions and hazards of a major construction site. Recreations and  The MLV work camp provides a full variety of amenities and leisure n/a Leisure facilities onsite.  The Syncrude Tamarack Club employs a recreation coordinator on staff at the MLV work camp to coordinate additional functions.  Availability of indoor and outdoor recreation equipment at the MLV work camp will reduce demand by project employees to use recreation facilities elsewhere in the RMWB. Social Services  Use of the MLV work camp will reduce the demand for family services. n/a  Syncrude has its own social services. Operations Economy  Positive effects, no mitigation required. n/a Aboriginal Benefits  Positive effects, no mitigation required. n/a Population  The majority of the operations employees will be transferred from the n/a North Mine and are therefore local residents. Education  Syncrude will continue to support educational and training activities n/a through collaboration with educational institutions in the SESA. Housing  The Syncrude Housing Initiative provides support to growing residential n/a developments in Fort McMurray.

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Impact Mitigation Monitoring Utilities  Power will be supplied through the existing system at the Mildred Lake n/a site.  Domestic and utility water will be supplied using the CPF.  Offsite facilities are used to manage solid and liquid wastes.  An industrial recycling program will be used. Protective  Fire and emergency services will be provided as required by Alberta’s n/a Services Occupational Health and Safety guidelines.  Syncrude will coordinate with other nearby sites and operators to ensure effective use of firefighting training and equipment.  Syncrude will provide appropriate health and safety training on a regular basis to the operations workforce.  A Project-specific Emergency Response plan will be utilized.  No firearms or hunting bows are permitted on the Project site.  Syncrude has an alcohol and substance abuse policy, a motor vehicle safety policy, and a respectful workplace policy. Health Services  Emergency services will be provided as required according to Alberta’s n/a Occupational Health and Safety Guidelines for isolated worksites.  Safety programs will be followed at the construction site that address the unique functions and hazards of a major construction site. Recreations and  No mitigation required. n/a Leisure Social Services  No mitigation required. n/a

Note: n/a – Not applicable.

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Further, the MLX Project will achieve its socio-economic objectives by the use of local contractors and providing Aboriginal business opportunities. In addition, major contractors will be required to provide opportunities to local and regional Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal businesses on the basis of best total value criteria. This will be a requirement of the bid process for potential engineering, procurement and construction contractors and its subcontractors.

The competition for skilled labour during MLX Project pre-production will be a management challenge for Syncrude and the other oil sands developers in the region. However, given Syncrude’s ongoing experience in the SESA, Syncrude is confident of being able to effectively compete for the skilled labour needed during the construction of the MLX Project through the following:  provision of competitive wages and benefits;  application of best practices for attracting and retaining workers; and  implementation of the management measures discussed previously in relation to Project-specific effects.

The TIA study (Volume 3, Appendix M) was used to assess cumulative effects on traffic volumes and transportation infrastructure. With the proposed mitigation measures, cumulative effects from the MLX Project during pre-production are not expected.

Pre-production phase activities typically represent a higher risk of accident and injury than do routine operations and as such could when combined with other projects create a cumulative effect on health services. Project mitigation measures, discussed in Section 18.4.14, should attenuate direct effects and the MLX Project contribution to cumulative effects should be low.

18.5.2 Operations During the operations phase, the overlap of the MLX Project with other projects will create competition for local and regional suppliers and labour. However, Syncrude plan to transfer the majority of its operations workforce (83% or 555 workers) from the existing mining operations at the North Mine. Further, Syncrude expects to meet the objective of hiring from the SESA through contracting work during the operations phase. This may include camp operations/maintenance, road maintenance and snow removal, water supply or solid waste transportation.

The TIA study (Volume 3, Appendix M) was used to assess cumulative effects on traffic volumes and transportation infrastructure. With the proposed mitigation measures, cumulative effects from the MLX Project during operations are not expected.

Routine operations activities have limited risk of accident and injury and therefore limited increase in demands for health services. Project mitigation measures should attenuate direct effects as discussed above and the MLX Project contribution to cumulative effects should be low.

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The cumulative effects of the MLX Project for the planned development case are summarized in Table 18.5-1.

Table 18.5-1: Summary of Planned Development Case Effects

Final Geographic Project Indicator Direction Magnitude Duration Frequency Confidence Effect Extent Contribution Rating Pre-production Phase Economy Positive Provincial Low Short-term Infrequent to Moderate Low Low and Continuous Regional Traffic and Neutral – – – – – – – Transportation Health Neutral to Local Low Short-term Infrequent to Moderate Low Low Negative Continuous Operations Phase Economy Positive Provincial Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Low and Regional Traffic and Negative Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Low Transportation Health Neutral to Local Low Long-term Continuous Moderate Low Low Negative

Note: – = Not applicable.

18.6 Summary Economic baseline information suggests that in both the short- and long-term, there will be new employment opportunities accompanied by competition for labour in the SESA primarily due to growth in oil sands investment and workforce retirements. The SESA community services and infrastructure have seen a remarkable expansion during the last few years and can support a reasonable increase in the population.

The SEIA examined the social and economic effects that could result from pre-production and operations of the MLX Project. The potential effects of the MLX Project on the Province of Alberta and, more specifically, on the SESA were analyzed. Opportunities to mitigate potential negative effects and to enhance positive effects were identified. During both phases, pre- production and operations, all identified economic effects were positive, had a final effect rating of moderate. All identified social effects had a final effect rating of low.

The potential effects of the project on regional social and economic conditions were described in the context of cumulative developments. All identified and discussed cumulative socio-economic effects had a final effect rating of low.

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18.7 References Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC). 2014. Aboriginal Connectivity Profiles. Available from: http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1100100013785/ 1304467449155. Accessed April 2014.

Agozzino-organ, L. 2012. Personal Communication. Coordinator, RMWD Recreation.

Alberta Education. 2011. Available at: http://education.alberta.ca/. Accessed 21 July 2011.

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Alberta Enterprise and Advanced Education. 2014. Inventory of Major Projects. Available from: http://www.albertacanada.com/business/statistics/inventory-of-major-projects.aspx. Accessed April 2014.

Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (ESRD). 2012. Lower Athabasca Regional Plan. Available from: https://www.landuse.alberta.ca/LandUse%20Documents/ Lower%20Athabasca%20Regional%20Plan%202012-2022%20Approved%202012- 08.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Brake, C. 2014. Personal communication. Alberta Health Services.

Bridger, J. 2013. Personal communication, Contact Supervisor for North Fort McMurray Childcare programs. YMCA of Wood Buffalo.

Butz, J. 2013. Personal communication. Assistant deputy chief of operations: RMWB Regional Emergency Services.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). 2013. Rental Market Report. Available from: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64483/64483_2013_B02.pdf Accesses September 2014.

Construction Sector Council (CSC). 2012. Market Intelligence Construction Forecast Reports: Construction Looking Forward 2012–2020, Key Highlights in Alberta. Available at: www.constructionforcasts.ca. Accessed: May 2012.

Eaton, M. 2013. Personal communication. Human resources secretary: Fort McMurray Public School District.

Evasiuk, H. 2012. Personal communications. Supervisor of Community Services: RMWB Social Services.

Fort McKay First Nation. 2014. First Nation Webpage. Available from: http://www.fortmckay.com/residents.html. Accessed April 2014.

Fort McMurray Métis. 2012. A Few Aboriginal Statistics. Available from: http://www.fort mcmurraymetis.org/news/a-few-aboriginal-statistics/. Accessed May 2012.

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Fort McMurray Online. 2014. Fort McMurray Business Directory. Available from: http://www.fortmcmurrayonline.com/directory/welcome.aspx. Accessed April 2014.

Gauthier, N. 2014. Personal communication. Communications Coordinator, Fort McMurray Public School District.

Government of Alberta (GoA). 2011a. Athabasca Oil Sands Area Comprehensive Regional Infrastructure Sustainability Plan. Available from: http://www.energy.alberta.ca/pdf/ossAOSA_CRISP_Final.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Government of Alberta (GoA). 2011b. Responsible Actions: A Plan for Alberta’s Oil Sands, Annual Progress Report 2011. Available from: http://www.energy.alberta.ca/pdf/OSSResponsibleActionsProgressReport2011.pdf Accessed April 2014.

Government of Alberta (GoA). 2012. Wood Buffalo Economic Update, Winter 2012. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.net/LMIResources/EconomicUpdates/ Resources/Econ_Update_Winter%202012_Final.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Government of Alberta (GoA). 2014a. Oil Sands Quarterly Update. Available from: http://www.albertacanada.com/business/statistics/oil-sands-quarterly.aspx. Accessed April 2014.

Government of Alberta (GoA). 2014b. Alberta Labour Force Statistics, March 2014. Available at: http://work.alberta.ca/documents/labour-force-stats-Mar14-public-package.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Grant, S. 2012. Personal communication. Inspector, Wood Buffalo RCMP Detachment.

Guerin, R. 2013. Personal communication. Rural Foreman, RMWB Utility Services.

IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS CERA). 2009. Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands: Finding the New Balance. Available from: http://a1024.g.akamai.net/f/ 1024/13859/1d/ihsgroup.download.akamai.com/13859/ihs/cera/Growth-in-Canadian-Oil- Sands-Final-Report.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Lutes, B. 2014. Personal communication. President, RMWB Housing Development Corporation.

Northland School Division (NSD). 2014. Fort McKay School. Available from: http://www.northland61.ab.ca/. Accessed April 2014.

Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada. 2011. HR Trends and Insights: A Look at Current and Short-Term Workforce Trends within the Canadian Petroleum Industry, Q3/Q4 2011 Report. Available at: http://www.petrohrsc.ca/tools-- resources/media/december-13,-2011-q3q4-2011-hr-trends-report-press-release.aspx Accessed January 2012.

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Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada. 2013. The Decade Ahead: Oil Sands Demand to 2022. Available from: http://www.petrohrsc.ca/media/42585/ oil_sands_labour_demand_outlook_to_2022_report.pdf. Accessed: April 2014.

Red River Current. 2013. Fort McKay First Nation Quarterly Update. Available from: http://www.fortmckay.com/publications_rrc.html Accessed September 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2006. 2006 Municipal Census. Available at http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/Assets/Corporate/Census+Reports/2006+Municipal+Cens us.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2008. Envision Wood Buffalo: For MacKay Where We Are Today. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/Assets/ Departments/Planning+and+Development/Long+Range+Planning/Envision+Wood+Buff alo/PDF/background_report_ftmackay.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2010. 2010 Municipal Census. Available at: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/Assets/Corporate/Census+Reports/2010+Municipal+Cens us.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2012. 2012 Municipal Census. Available at http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/Assets/Corporate/Census+Reports/Census+reports+Part+ 1.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014a. 2014 Proposed Budget. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/Assets/Departments/Financial+Services/pdf/2014+Propos ed+Budget.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014b. Education. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/living/Newcomers/Working-and-Learning-in-Wood- Buffalo/Education.htm. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014c. Cost of Living. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/living/Newcomers/About-Wood-Buffalo/Cost-of-Living.htm. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014d. A Progress Report on Wood Buffalo’s 10 Year Plan to End Homelessness 2010 - 2013. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/Assets/00assets/living/social+support+services/pdfs/A+Pr ogress+Report+on+Wood+Buffalo$!e2$!80$!99s+10+Year+Plan+to+End+Homelessnes s.pdf. Accessed: September 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014e. Health Care. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/living/Newcomers/Getting-Help-in-Wood-Buffalo/Health- Care.htm. Accessed April 2014.

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Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014f. Community Services Department: Recreation and Leisure Facilities. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/ Municipal-Government/municipal_departments/Community-Services- Department/Recreation-Facilities.htm. Accessed April 2014.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB). 2014g. Social Support Services. Available from http://www.woodbuffalo.ab.ca/living/Social-Support-Services.htm. Accessed April 2014.

Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). 2013. Wood Buffalo Detachment 2013 Report to our Community. Available from: http://www.woodbuffalorcmp.ca/wp- content/uploads/2014/08/2013-Report-to-our-Community-is-now-available.pdf.

Statistics Canada. 2006. 2006 Census, Community Profiles. Available from: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/index-eng.cfm.

Statistics Canada. 2011. 2011 Census, Community Profiles. Available from: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/index-eng.cfm.

Statistics Canada. 2014. Labour Force Survey, February 2014. Available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140307/dq140307a-eng.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Syncrude Canada Ltd. (Syncrude). 2011. Syncrude Sustainability Report. Available from: http://syncrudesustainability.com/2011/media/pdf/Sycrude%202010- 11%20CSR%20Report.pdf Accessed December 2013.

Syncrude Canada Ltd. (Syncrude). 2012a. Syncrude Aboriginal Relations. Available from: http://www.syncrudesustainability.com/2012/social/aboriginal-relations/. Accessed: May 2014.

Syncrude Canada Ltd. (Syncrude). 2012b. Syncrude Sustainability Report. Available from: http://syncrudesustainability.com/2012/social/community-involvement/. Accessed: May 2014.

Thomas, R. 2013. Personal communication. Director of Marketing and Communications: Keyano College, Fort McMurray.

Tully, J. 2014. Personal communication. Executive Assistant, Fort McMurray Catholic School District.

Wilkins, C. 2012. Personal communication. Media Relations, RMWB RCMP Detachment.

Wooden, O. 2014. Personal communication. Executive Officer, Fort McMurray Real Estate Board.

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