Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014 SECTION 18.0 – SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 18.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ........................................................................... 18-1 18.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 18-1 18.1.1 Key Issues ....................................................................................... 18-1 18.2 Methods ............................................................................................................ 18-3 18.2.1 Temporal Boundaries ....................................................................... 18-3 18.2.2 Spatial Boundary .............................................................................. 18-4 18.2.3 Modelling .......................................................................................... 18-4 18.2.4 Analysis ............................................................................................ 18-7 18.2.5 Assessment Criteria ......................................................................... 18-8 18.3 Baseline Case .................................................................................................. 18-9 18.3.1 Socio-economic Overview of Alberta Oil Sands .............................. 18-9 18.3.2 Government of Alberta Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs ........... 18-14 18.3.3 Industry’s Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs ............................... 18-19 18.3.4 Syncrude Initiatives and Programs ................................................ 18-20 18.3.5 Labour Force Indicators, Earnings and Income ............................. 18-26 18.3.6 Population ...................................................................................... 18-30 18.3.7 Education ....................................................................................... 18-31 18.3.8 Housing .......................................................................................... 18-35 18.3.9 Utilities ........................................................................................... 18-37 18.3.10 Protective Services ........................................................................ 18-38 18.3.11 Health ............................................................................................. 18-42 18.3.12 Recreation and Leisure Facilities ................................................... 18-43 18.3.13 Social Services .............................................................................. 18-45 18.3.14 Aboriginal Benefits ......................................................................... 18-45 18.4 Application Case ............................................................................................ 18-55 18.4.1 Project Summary ........................................................................... 18-55 18.4.2 Economic Effects ........................................................................... 18-57 18.4.3 Aboriginal Benefits ......................................................................... 18-69 18.4.4 Population Effects .......................................................................... 18-70 18.4.5 Effects on Education Services ....................................................... 18-72 18.4.6 Effects on Housing Services .......................................................... 18-72 18.4.7 Effects on Utilities Services ............................................................ 18-73 18.4.8 Effects on Protective Services ....................................................... 18-74 18.4.9 Effects on Health Services ............................................................. 18-76 18.4.10 Effects on Recreation and Leisure Services .................................. 18-76 18.4.11 Effects on Social Services ............................................................. 18-77 Table of Contents Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont) PAGE 18.4.12 Closure ........................................................................................... 18-78 18.4.13 Application Case Summary ............................................................ 18-78 18.4.14 Mitigation and Monitoring ............................................................... 18-78 18.5 Planned Development Case ........................................................................... 18-78 18.5.1 Pre-production Phase .................................................................... 18-78 18.5.2 Operations ..................................................................................... 18-82 18.6 Summary ........................................................................................................ 18-83 18.7 References ..................................................................................................... 18-84 LIST OF TABLES Table 18.1-1: Valued Socio-Economic Components and Indicators ...................................... 18-3 Table 18.2-1: Social and Economic Effect Attribute Definitions .............................................. 18-8 Table 18.3-1: List of Syncrude Industry and Governmental Oil Sands Initiatives and Programs ........................................................................................................ 18-26 Table 18.3-2: Labour Force Indicators in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta and Canada (2006) ............................................................................ 18-27 Table 18.3-3: Labour Force by Industry in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006) .......................................................................................... 18-28 Table 18.3-4: Number of Active Companies in Fort McMurray by Type ............................... 18-29 Table 18.3-5: Population Count for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo ................... 18-30 Table 18.3-6: Population Growth in the RMWB from 2000 to 2012 ...................................... 18-31 Table 18.3-7: Education Profile for the RMWB and Alberta (2006) ...................................... 18-32 Table 18.3-8: Total Crime Rates in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (2013) ........ 18-40 Table 18.3-9: Profile of First Nations Communities in the Socio-economic Study Area ....... 18-46 Table 18.3-10: Fort McMurray First Nation #468 Reserves .................................................... 18-46 Table 18.3-11: Fort McKay First Nation Reserves .................................................................. 18-47 Table 18.3-12: Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation ................................................................ 18-47 Table 18.3-13: Mikisew Cree First Nation............................................................................... 18-48 Table 18.3-14: Chipewyan Prairie Dené First Nation ............................................................. 18-48 Table 18.3-15: Economic Indicators for the Aboriginal Population in the RMWB and Alberta (2006) ................................................................................................. 18-49 Table 18.3-16: Education Profile for the Aboriginal Population in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2006) ........................................... 18-53 Table 18.4-1: Project Pre-production Costs ......................................................................... 18-56 Table 18.4-2: Project Operations Costs ............................................................................... 18-56 Table 18.4-3: Pre-production Phase Economic Effects on GDP, Income and Employment at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels ............ 18-59 Table of Contents Syncrude Canada Ltd. Mildred Lake Extension Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont) PAGE Table 18.4-4: Operations Phase Economic Effects on GDP, Income and Employment at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels ..................................... 18-61 Table 18.4-5: Pre-production Phase Effects on Federal, Provincial and Municipal Taxes in Alberta and Rest of Canada ....................................................................... 18-62 Table 18.4-6: Operations Phase Effects on Federal, Provincial and Municipal Taxes in Alberta and Rest of Canada ........................................................................... 18-63 Table 18.4-7: MLX Project Construction Effects by Industry at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels (Open Model: Direct and Indirect) ...................... 18-65 Table 18.4-8: MLX Project Operations Effects by Industry at the: Provincial, National and Rest of Canada Levels (Open Model: Direct and Indirect) ...................... 18-66 Table 18.4-9: Summary of Application Case Effects ............................................................ 18-79 Table 18.4-10: Summary of Proposed Mitigation and Monitoring ........................................... 18-80 Table 18.5-1: Summary of Planned Development Case Effects .......................................... 18-83 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 18.2-1: Socio-economic Study Area (SESA) ................................................................ 18-5 Figure 18.3-1: Values of Oil Sands Investments in Alberta and RMWB (in Million Dollars) .. 18-10 Figure 18.3-2: Projections of New Oil Sands Jobs by Source over the Coming Decade .....