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Ost of Capital Study Air Transport

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Ost of Capital Study Air Transport Washington State Department of Revenue Cost of Capital Study Appendix C 2007 Assessment Year Industry: Air Transport - Major Passenger Reference Equity: (Appendix C) Yield Capitalization Page CAPM - ex post - Ibbotson Rm 13.5% 5 CAPM - ex ante 12.6% 6 Dividend Growth Models Value Line, based on Dividends Growth NMF 9 Value Line, based on Earnings Growth NMF 10 Standard & Poors, based on Earnings Growth NMF 11 Yield Equity Component 13.0% Debt: Debt Rate 8.0% 12 Industry Market Capital Structure Equity 30% x 13.0% = 3.9% 3 Operating Leases 45% x 8.0% = 3.6% 3 Debt Before adjustment for Debt Tax Shield 25% x 8.0% = 2.0% 3 Subtotal Financing portion of structure 5.6% Marginal Tax Rate 35% (1-.35) X 5.6% = 3.6% 7.5% WACC=(Ke*Equity%)+(Kd*Debt%)*(1-Marginal Tax Rate) Weighted Average Cost of Capital: 7.5% 04/13/2007 2007 Cost of Capital Study -- Air Transport - Major Passenger 1 Washington State Department of Revenue Support for Guideline Companies Air Transport - Major Passenger 2007 Assessment Year Industry Overall P/E Div'd Company Name Ticker Beta Ratio Yield RF Airnet Systems* ANS 0.60 NMF nil MP AirTran Hldgs Inc* AAI 1.35 27.3 nil MP Alaska Air Group Inc ALK 1.35 9.6 nil MP AMR Corporation Delaware AMR 2.60 9.1 nil MP Continental Airlines Inc CAL 2.40 8.6 nil MP Express Jet XJT 1.20 4.9 nil MF Fedex Corporation FDX 1.05 16.9 0.3% RP Frontier Airlines Incorporated* FRNT 1.85 nmf nil MP JetBlue Airways JBLU 1.05 41.1 nil MP Mesa Air Group* MESA 1.55 13.7 nil RP Midwest Air Group MEH 1.35 43.8 nil RP Republic Airways Holdings, Inc. RJET 0.85 9.7 nil MP Sky West* SKYW 1.30 10.5 0.6% MP Southwest Airlines Company LUV 1.10 19.0 0.1% MF United Parcel Svc UPS 0.75 19.1 1.8% Mean 1.36 17.9 0.7% Air Transport - Major Passenger P/E Div'd Company Name Ticker Beta Ratio Yield MP AirTran Hldgs Inc* AAI 1.35 27.3 nil MP Alaska Air Group Inc ALK 1.35 9.6 nil MP AMR Corporation Delaware AMR 2.60 9.1 nil MP Continental Airlines Inc CAL 2.40 8.6 nil MP Express Jet Holdings XJT 1.20 4.9 nil MP JetBlue Airways JBLU 1.05 41.1 nil MP Mesa Air Group* MESA 1.35 43.8 nil MP Sky West* SKYW 1.30 10.5 0.6% MP Southwest Airlines Company LUV 1.10 19.0 0.1% 1.52 19.32 0.00 Source: ValueLine 2006 NR=Not Reported 04/13/2007 2007 Cost of Capital Study -- Air Transport - Major Passenger 2 Washington State Department of Revenue Support for Capital Structure (based on Market Value) Air Transport - Major Passenger 2007 Assessment Year Industry Overall $Stock$ Common Common Preferred Long Term Operating $ Total Debt $ Company Name Ticker Average Shares $ Stock $ % $ Stock $ % $ Debt $ % $ Leases $ % Op Leases & Eq Airnet Systems* ANS 3.29 10,161,000 33,446,625 71.1% - 0.0% 8,000,000 17.0% 5,591,111 11.9% 47,037,736 AirTran Hldgs Inc* AAI 11.49 91,000,000 1,045,590,000 26.7% - 0.0% 576,400,000 14.7% 2,288,181,818 58.5% 3,910,171,818 Alaska Air Group Inc ALK 41.19 40,022,870 1,648,408,606 29.5% - 0.0% 945,500,000 16.9% 2,987,272,727 53.5% 5,581,181,333 AMR Corporation Delaware AMR 29.53 214,415,972 6,332,061,013 20.7% - 0.0% 12,407,000,000 40.6% 11,818,181,818 38.7% 30,557,242,831 Continental Airlines Inc CAL 38.67 89,900,947 3,476,020,116 16.4% - 0.0% 4,735,000,000 22.3% 13,000,000,000 61.3% 21,211,020,116 Express Jet XJT 7.75 54,161,848 419,483,513 11.5% - 0.0% 151,800,000 4.2% 3,081,818,182 84.4% 3,653,101,695 Fedex Corporation FDX 113.17 306,633,491 34,701,201,121 61.5% - 0.0% 2,090,000,000 3.7% 19,670,588,235 34.8% 56,461,789,356 Frontier Airlines Incorporated* FRNT 8.06 36,607,455 295,117,100 14.9% - 0.0% 444,000,000 22.5% 1,235,069,973 62.6% 1,974,187,073 JetBlue Airways JBLU 12.94 175,712,310 2,272,838,730 40.6% - 0.0% 2,338,000,000 41.7% 990,909,091 17.7% 5,601,747,821 Mesa Air Group* MESA 8.37 36,200,769 303,060,771 10.1% - 0.0% 550,000,000 18.3% 2,158,181,818 71.7% 3,011,242,589 Midwest Air Group MEH 9.25 18,604,442 172,091,089 24.7% - 0.0% 43,600,000 6.3% 481,777,778 69.1% 697,468,866 Republic Airways Holdings, Inc. RJET 17.09 42,431,802 724,947,337 24.0% - 0.0% 1,487,800,000 49.3% 804,106,667 26.7% 3,016,854,004 Sky West* SKYW 25.72 63,913,060 1,643,950,425 27.9% - 0.0% 1,508,500,000 25.6% 2,746,454,545 46.6% 5,898,904,970 Southwest Airlines Company LUV 15.69 791,833,168 12,421,222,962 73.9% - 0.0% 1,275,000,000 7.6% 3,118,181,818 18.5% 16,814,404,780 United Parcel Svc UPS 75.70 1,073,543,539 81,263,667,424 91.2% - 0.0% 3,113,000,000 3.5% 4,741,176,471 5.3% 89,117,843,894 Mean: 36.3% 0.0% 19.6% 44.1% Weighted Mean: 146,753,106,830 59.3% - 0.0% 31,673,600,000 12.8% 69,127,492,053 27.9% 247,554,198,883 Median: 26.7% 0.0% 17.0% 46.6% Air Transport - Major Passenger $Stock$ Common Common Preferred Long Term Operating $ Total $ Company Name Ticker Average Shares $ Stock $ % $ Stock $ % $ Debt $ % $ Leases $ % Debt & Equity AirTran Hldgs Inc* AAI 11.49 91,000,000 1,045,590,000 26.7% - 0.0% 576,400,000 14.7% 2,288,181,818 58.5% 3,910,171,818 Alaska Air Group Inc ALK 41.19 40,022,870 1,648,408,606 29.5% - 0.0% 945,500,000 16.9% 2,987,272,727 53.5% 5,581,181,333 AMR Corporation Delaware AMR 29.53 214,415,972 6,332,061,013 20.7% - 0.0% 12,407,000,000 40.6% 11,818,181,818 38.7% 30,557,242,831 Continental Airlines Inc CAL 38.67 89,900,947 3,476,020,116 16.4% - 0.0% 4,735,000,000 22.3% 13,000,000,000 61.3% 21,211,020,116 Express Jet Holdings XJT 7.75 54,161,848 419,483,513 11.5% - 0.0% 151,800,000 4.2% 3,081,818,182 84.4% 3,653,101,695 JetBlue Airways JBLU 12.94 175,712,310 2,272,838,730 40.6% - 0.0% 2,338,000,000 41.7% 990,909,091 17.7% 5,601,747,821 Mesa Air Group* MESA 8.37 36,200,769 303,060,771 10.1% - 0.0% 550,000,000 18.3% 2,158,181,818 71.7% 3,011,242,589 Southwest Airlines Company LUV 15.69 791,833,168 12,421,222,962 73.9% - 0.0% 1,275,000,000 7.6% 3,118,181,818 18.5% 16,814,404,780 Mean: 28.7% 0.0% 20.8% 50.5% Weighted Mean: 27,918,685,710 30.9% - 0.0% 22,978,700,000 25.4% 39,442,727,273 43.7% 90,340,112,983 Median: 23.7% 0.0% 17.6% 56.0% Estimated Capital Structure 30.0% 0.0% 25.0% 45.0% Source: ValueLine 04/13/2007 2007 Cost of Capital Study -- Air Transport - Major Passenger 3 Washington State Department of Revenue Support for Market Multiples Air Transport - Major Passenger 2007 Assessment Year Industry Overall $Stock$ Cash Div'ds Book Company Name Ticker Average Rev's Multiple Flow Multiple Earnings Multiple Decl'd Multiple Value Multiple Airnet Systems* ANS 3.29 19.37 0.2 2.06 1.6 0.60 5.5 nil 4.57 0.7 AirTran Hldgs Inc* AAI 11.49 21.15 0.5 0.55 20.9 0.25 46.0 nil 4.10 2.8 Alaska Air Group Inc ALK 41.19 83.75 0.5 7.50 5.5 3.90 10.6 nil 25.00 1.6 AMR Corporation Delaware AMR 29.53 105.60 0.3 7.50 3.9 1.80 16.4 nil nmf nmf Continental Airlines Inc CAL 38.67 146.55 0.3 9.05 4.3 3.20 12.1 nil 8.35 4.6 Express Jet XJT 7.75 28.91 0.3 2.31 3.4 1.57 4.9 nil 3.86 2.0 Fedex Corporation FDX 113.17 105.54 1.1 11.13 10.2 5.98 18.9 0.33 342.9 37.62 3.0 Frontier Airlines Incorporated* FRNT 8.06 27.17 0.3 0.42 19.2 (0.39) nmf nil 6.25 1.3 JetBlue Airways JBLU 12.94 13.30 1.0 0.80 16.2 (0.02) nmf nil 6.55 2.0 Mesa Air Group* MESA 8.37 39.36 0.2 3.50 2.4 0.62 13.5 nil 6.12 1.4 Midwest Air Group MEH 9.25 37.20 0.2 0.95 nmf (0.05) nmf nil 1.20 7.7 Republic Airways Holdings, Inc.
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