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Insper Instituto De Ensino E Pesquisa Leonardo Francisco Sant'ana Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa Faculdade de Economia e Administração Leonardo Francisco Sant’Ana Júnior FUSÕES E AQUISIÇÕES NO SETOR AÉREO São Paulo 2011 1 Leonardo Francisco Sant’Ana Júnior Fusões e aquisições no setor aéreo Monografia apresentada ao curso de Ciências Econômicas, como requisito para a obtenção do Grau de Bacharel I do Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa. Orientadora: Prof.ª Maria Cristina N. Gramani – Insper São Paulo 2011 2 Sant’ Ana, Leonardo Francisco Jr. Fusões e aquisições no setor aéreo / Leonardo Francisco Sant’ Ana Júnior. – São Paulo: Insper, 2011. 37 f. Monografia: Faculdade de Economia e Administração. Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa. Orientadora: Prof.ª Maria Cristina N. Gramani 1.Fusões e aquisições 2. Análise Envoltória de dados 3. Setor aéreo 3 Leonardo Francisco Sant’ Ana Júnior Fusões e aquisições no setor aéreo Monografia apresentada à Faculdade de Economia do Insper, como parte dos requisitos para conclusão do curso de graduação em Economia. EXAMINADORES ___________________________________________________________________ ________ Prof.ª Maria Cristina N. Gramani Orientadora ___________________________________________________________________ ________ Prof. Eduardo de Carvalho Andrade Examinador ________ Prof. Henrique Machado Barros Examinador 4 Agradecimentos Aos professores, à minha orientadora, aos amigos e colegas de faculdade e do trabalho e ao pessoal da biblioteca. 5 Dedicatória Dedico este trabalho a Deus, aos meus pais que sem a ajuda deles nada conseguiria, à minha namorada que me dá a força e o carinho necessário no meu dia-a-dia e aos meus amigos que sempre estão por perto pra compartilhar os momentos da minha vida. 6 Resumo Sant’ Ana, Leonardo Francisco Júnior. Fusões e aquisições no setor aéreo. São Paulo, 2011. 37p. Monografia – Faculdade de Economia e Administração. Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa. O trabalho consiste em verificar se operações de fusões e aquisições resultam em melhorias nas eficiências operacionais de empresas aéreas americanas. Para realizar tal estudo foi utilizado o método de Análise Envoltória de Dados, comparando as eficiências de 12 empresas aéreas ao longo do período entre 2000 e 2008, utilizando variáveis como o custo operacional, os ativos totais, o EBIT e a relação entre assentos utilizados e assentos disponíveis nas aeronaves. Palavras-chave: fusões e aquisições, Análise Envoltória de Dados, eficiência, setor aéreo. 7 Abstract Sant’ Ana, Leonardo Francisco Júnior. Mergers and acquisitions in the airline industry. São Paulo, 2011. 37p. Monograph – Faculdade de Economia e Administração. Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa. The work consists of verify if mergers and acquisitions result in improvements in operational efficiencies of U.S. airlines. To perform such a study has used the method of Data Envelopment Analysis, comparing the efficiencies of 12 airlines over the period between 2000 and 2008, using variables such as operating cost, total assets, EBIT and the relationship between seats used and available seats on aircraft. Keywords: mergers and acquisitions, Data Envelopment Analysis, efficiency, airline industry. 8 Sumário 1. Introdução . .10 2. Revisão da Literatura . .13 3. Metodologia DEA . .15 3.1 Escolha das variáveis DEA. 16 4. Comparações e Limitações do DEA . .19 5. Dados . 21 6. Resultados .... .25 7. Conclusão . 29 8. Bibliografia . 30 9. Bibliografia Complementar . 32 10. Anexo . 33 9 Lista de tabelas Tabela 1 – Fusões e Aquisições de Companhias Aéreas na América Latina . 21 Tabela 2 – Eficiência das DMUs para o ano de 2008 . .26 Tabela 3 – Eficiência da US Airways Group e da UAL Corp . ... 26 Tabela 4 – Eficiência do Midwest Air Group e da AirTran. 28 Tabela 5 – Eficiência da Delta Air Lines e do US Airways Group. .28 Lista de Figuras Figura 1 – Modelo utilizado no trabalho . 16 Figura 2 – Os tipos de orientações no método DEA. .17 Figura 3 – As fronteiras de eficiência. .19 Figura 4 – O Método Stepwise Exaustivo Completo. .. 22 Figura 5 – Método Multicritério de Seleção de Variáveis.. 23 Figura 6 – Correlação da eficiência com as variáveis. .25 10 1. Introdução A história do início do capitalismo é marcada, dentre outros fatores, pela acumulação de capital, ganhos de produtividade e elevação do nível de competição. Atualmente, os cenários internacionais são caracterizados por uma crescente adaptação a novas tecnologias e mercados, uma crescente integração econômica e financeira e uma necessidade de conseguir diferenciais e recursos, os quais podem garantir no futuro uma competitividade e uma sustentabilidade empresarial. Esses fatores acabam por gerar a necessidade de aumentar o número de mercados ou mesmo eliminar os concorrentes, o que leva aos processos de reestruturação de ordem social, produtiva, de patrimônio e de concorrência em vários setores econômicos, surgindo assim operações de fusões e aquisições. A teoria neoclássica citada em Camargos (2007) retrata que as Fusões e Aquisições (F&A) consistem em uma resposta na melhora da eficiência a alterações no ambiente econômico, como políticas antitrustes e desregulação ou abertura de mercado, internacionalização, aumento de competição e maior integração dos mercados de capitais em nível mundial. Devido às características e intensidade dos resultados destas operações, podemos classificar F&A como uma das atividades empresariais de maior impacto nas instituições, com os resultados afetando funcionários e sociedade de uma maneira intensa. No caso do setor aéreo, tema de estudo deste trabalho, as fusões e aquisições podem ser um dos caminhos possíveis de serem seguidos para contornar crises do setor, considerando principalmente a experiência deste mesmo mercado nos Estados Unidos, onde no período pós-regulamentação dos anos 1980, pelos menos 14 operações foram realizadas em um período de 3 anos. Vassalo (2007) afirma que no caso brasileiro, a busca natural por novas fusões de empresas no mercado, em resposta a um período de competição exacerbada, é esperada. Sendo, portanto, etapa fundamental para se configurar um verdadeiro “marco regulatório” do transporte aéreo nacional. A escolha de o setor aéreo ser objetivo deste estudo está ligada também ao número relevante desse tipo de operação ocorrido neste setor (Tabela 1), e por se tratar de um dos setores chave da economia mundial. No Brasil, por exemplo, a 11 receita de vôo das companhias aéreas brasileiras, no mercado interno e externo, atingiu o valor de 14,3 bilhões de reais, o que representou aproximadamente no ano de 2007, a cerca de 0,55% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), (Oliveira, 2009). Podemos citar, ainda, o caso mais recente da companhia criada através de uma fusão entre a chilena LAN e a brasileira TAM, dando origem a Latam, o maior grupo de aviação da América Latina, com receitas de mais de 9 bilhões de dólares e valor de mercado estimado em 11 bilhões de dólares (Paduan, 2010). No trabalho desenvolvido visou-se verificar a eficiência das operações de negócios de cada empresa aérea (posteriormente selecionadas no instante da coleta dos dados), comparando os resultados obtidos antes e após a fusão, como custos operacionais e resultados financeiros. Para efeito de análise o modelo a ser utilizado será a Análise Envoltória de Dados. Essa ferramenta nos mostra a eficiência relativa de cada unidade em análise, realizando uma comparação com as demais e levando em conta a relação entre produtos (outputs) e insumos (inputs). No caso das companhias aéreas, a eficiência pode ser descrita como a capacidade conjunta da empresa em disponibilizar vôos e vender os assentos dos aviões (Gomes, 2003). Para realizar tal comparação de eficiência no setor aéreo, Camargos (2007) utilizou em sua pesquisa as variáveis EBIT e EBITDA como outputs e como inputs o Q de Tobin (estimativa dos ativos intangíveis de uma empresa) e o valor de mercado da firma, com o objetivo de verificar as sinergias operacionais em F&A; Gomes (2003) em seu artigo utiliza a quantidade de pessoal em voo, a capacidade total de passageiros das aeronaves da frota e quantidade de combustível utilizada como input e a razão entre passageiro por quilômetros oferecidos (passageiro.km) é usada como output. Neste trabalho decidiu-se usar como input o custo operacional pelo fato desta variável abranger um conjunto mais amplo de outras variáveis, como gasto com aeronaves e com pessoal, acreditou-se ser uma melhor maneira de diferenciar as companhias no momento da comparação de eficiência. Adicionado ao custo operacional foi selecionado o ativo total como input (uma proxy para o tamanho da empresa), e os outputs seriam EBIT e relação entre assentos oferecidos e assentos utilizados (que representa a utilização da aeronave). A sequência do trabalho apresenta a seguinte estrutura, após a introdução encontra-se a revisão da literatura (seção 2), seguida da metodologia utilizada onde 12 também são apresentadas as comparações e limitações do método (seções 3 e 4); posteriormente há a análise dos dados do estudo (seção 5), finalizando com a discussão dos resultados obtidos (seção 6), a conclusão (seção 7) e a bibliografia utilizada (seções 8 e 9). 13 2. Revisão da Literatura Nos estudos relacionados às fusões e aquisições, a principal questão que os estudiosos buscam selecionar é se F&A beneficiam ou não a economia. Para McGee (1989), o processo de rearranjar os ativos da empresa de uma maneira mais eficiente através das F&A acaba por gerar um aumento dos lucros das empresas e conseqüentemente um aumento do valor das ações para os acionistas. Ainda, este plano de ação pode produzir resultados mais eficientes na produção e qualidade dos produtos, levando a um preço mais barato do mesmo. Todavia, se desta mesma fusão surgir um monopólio, isto pode prejudicar os consumidores. Há dois tipos de estudo que procuram verificar o sucesso destas transações. O primeiro trata-se de uma abordagem ex ante onde os estudiosos acadêmicos avaliam a reação do mercado no momento em que a transação é anunciada, antes que ela de fato ocorra, nessa abordagem está inserida, além dos custos e benefícios previstos, a expectativa do mercado com relação ao fato se o negócio será ou não consumado.
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