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IRI BCG Growth Leaders

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IRI BCG Growth Leaders GROWTH LEADERS IN CPG U.S. CPG growth in measured channels accelerated significantly to 10.4% in 2020 (vs. 1.8% Last 3-Year CAGR), driven by COVID-19-related shopping and consumption Executive Summary – shifts. 2020 growth was driven by volume (6.4%) and price / mix (3.7%);volume growth outpaced price Growth Leaders Results for the first time in 10+ years, driven by elevated demand since March across edible and nonedible. Pricing was driven by reduced promotion and accelerated premiumization. While large and medium growth leaders overlap heavily with prior years, 60% of the small leaderboard While 2020 Growth Leaders is comprised of new entrants. • LARGE: Bimbo (+15.4%) tops the leaderboard, followed by General Mills, Conagra, Mondelez and RB. Key growth categories broadly benefitted from include edible foods (bakery, frozen meals, candy, poultry), beverages (CSD, beer) and home care (cleaners, paper goods). • MEDIUM: Mark Anthony held the #1 position from 2019, driven by continued White Claw brand growth (+$1.1B, +131% vs. 2019). one-time COVID-19 Fourteen of 15 delivered >20% sales growth; category trends held vs. prior year (with accelerated growth), including alcohol, spikes, delivering tobacco and shelf stable F&B. • SMALL: Vi-Jon Labs, producer of Germ-X sanitizer, was the fastest growing, with >450% YoY sales growth (+$310M). Six of the top 15 against sustaining delivered >100% growth; several fueled by COVID-19-related categories (e.g., hand sanitizers, frozen foods, in-home cosmetics). trends will be As CPGs seek to lap strong 2020 growth, we believe a set of levers from 2020 are likely to revert to pre-COVID-19 levels, including rebound of the Convenience channel and away-from-home consumption, demand for variety, right sizing of packs, and increasing critical to COGS inflation pressure. One-time COVID-19 trend spikes include a sharp acceleration in select, previously declining categories during 2020, namely at-home food and beverage; paper products are likely to revert to flat growth. future year Trends that accelerated in 2020 and will sustain post-COVID-19 include: performance. • E-Commerce: COVID-led acceleration in e-commerce adoption and increased investments from retailers • Bifurcation of CPG spend. Increased premiumization via Large CPG innovation & hyper-targeted Small CPGs; Continued development of own/store brands and value brands • Category Demand Shifts: Four key consumer purchase patterns are likely to maintain – self-care and societal-care, at-home indulgence, at- home convenience and taste exploration (both flavor and claims-driven) © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2 2020 Growth Leaders Which CPG companies are winning in the U.S. and why? Ninth Annual Report First to compare public and private CPG company performance 500+ CPG manufacturers with >$100M sales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$6B sales (N = 28 companies) • Top 15 midsize: $1—$6B sales (N = 79) • Top 15 small: $100M—$1B sales (N = 421) Disaggregation of the companies’ underlying performance 1. MULO+C includes Grocery, Mass, Club, Convenience, Drug. Dollar and. E-Commerce for store Pickup & Delivery from Brick & Mortar stores. © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3 We Use a Composite Growth Index to Understand Who is Winning Three Growth Metrics Disaggregation Dollar Sales % Change 1 Growth contribution due to distribution versus productivity Volume Sales % Change Growth due to volume versus pricing 2 Price increases analyzed by true price versus mix shift Percent portfolio gaining, holding and losing share Dollar Share Point Change 3 Category dynamics (e.g., category trends, portfolio concentration) Source: IRI and BCG analysis © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4 U.S. CPG Sales Grew 10% in 2020, Up ~5x vs. 2019, Driven by High Volume Growth CPG Sales Growth / % Change vs. YA 4.7x 10.4% Elevated volume demand since March led to the largest Dollars 3.0% 3.0% volume gain in 9 years 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% Reduced promotion 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 and accelerated Price/Mix premiumization drove 2.9% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 0.8% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 3.7% price accretion Volume 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% -0.3% 6.4% MULO+C includes Grocery, Mass, Club, Convenience, Drug. and Dollar channels. E-Commerce sales included for store Pickup & Delivery from Brick & Mortar stores. Source: IRI POS Data MULO+C; IRI & BCG Analysis © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5 Category and Manufacturer Trends Larger CPGs Accelerated Growth Significantly, Large CPGs But Still Ceded Share to Smaller Manufacturers accelerated % Share of CPG Sales by Manufacturer Size / Total U.S. MULO+C growth 2016-19 2020 % Avg chg CAGR chg vs. YA 15x vs. YA $801B 2016-19 $845B vs. YA $933B vs. YA Total 1.8% 10.4% vs. prior years Private Private Label 14.5 0.3 15.7 0.3 16.0 4.5% 11.9% 0.2 Label Despite fast-paced Extra Small ($<100M) 8.1 0.1 8.2 0.0 8.8 0.6 Extra Small 2.1% 18.3% growth from the Large Small ($>100M) 11.6 12.0 segment, Small players 0.2 0.2 12.6 0.5 Small 3.0% 15.4% continued to take Medium ($>1B) 17.9 18.0 0.0 0.1 17.9 -0.2 Medium 1.9% 9.5% share, driven by: Scale brand out-of-stocks in high demand categories Large ($>6B) 47.8 -0.5 46.0 -0.6 44.9 -1.2 Large 0.5% 7.5% Slowed growth in Convenience, where Large CPGs impacted 2016 2019 2020 more heavily Note: Large is $6B+ in L52W, Medium $1-5.5B, Small $100M-1B and Extra Small <$100M. MULO+C includes Grocery, Mass, Club, Convenience, Drug. Dollar and e-Commerce for Pickup & Delivery from Brick & Mortar stores. Source: IRI POS Data MULO+C. IRI & BCG analysis. © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6 2020 Rankings 2019 Growth Leader New to List vs. 2019 Returning and New Companies in the Top Rankings New to List vs. 2012–19 Large Companies Mid-Size Companies Small Companies 1 1 11 1 11 2 2 12 2 12 3 3 13 3 13 4 4 14 4 14 5 5 15 5 15 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$6B, Large >5.5B. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). MULO+C includes Grocery, Mass, Club, Convenience, Drug. Dollar and E-Commerce for store Pickup & Delivery from Brick & Mortar stores. Source: IRI & BCG analysis. © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7 Large Winning Companies Switch Positions, But Several Players are Frequently in the Top 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 #of times on list Reynolds Reynolds Lorillard Grupo Bimbo 5 1 1 1 1 American 1 American 1 1 1 1 2 2 Lorillard 2 Mondelez Intl 2 Unilever 2 2 Danone 2 2 2 General Mills 3 Anheuser Busch Mondelez Intl PepsiCo Altria Grp Tyson Foods Tyson Foods Mondelez Intl 5 3 InBev 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Dr. Pepper Keurig Dr Coca Cola Campbell Soup Bimbo General Mills Conagra Brands 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 Snapple Grp 4 Pepper 4 4 Dr. Pepper Reckitt Altria Grp Unilever Tyson Foods General Mills 1 5 5 5 5 Snapple Grp 5 5 5 5 5 Benckiser Inc LARGE Reynolds Unilever Campbell Soup Coca Cola Kimberly-Clark Conagra Brands 8* 6 6 6 6 6 6 American 6 6 6 Nestle S A Keurig Dr PepsiCo Coca Cola PepsiCo Bimbo Danone Mondelez Intl 4 7 Switzerland 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Pepper 8 8 Bimbo 8 8 8 PepsiCo 8 Imperial Brands 8 8 8 6 9 Kimberly-Clark 9 Coca Cola 9 Lorillard 9 Mondelez Intl 9 Unilever 9 9 9 Kellogg’s 9 Tyson Foods 4 Reynolds 10 Campbell Soup 10 Kimberly-Clark 10 10 10 Altria 10 Coca Cola 10 Bimbo Danone 7 American 10 10 *Constellation Brands appears in mid-sized players prior to 2017 Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$6B, Large >$6B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis. © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8 Many Mid-Size Players Are Also Consistently in the Top 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 #of times on list Keurig Green Keurig Green Mead Johnson The Wonderful Mark Anthony Glaxosmithkline Juul Labs Vital Pharma 2 1 Mountain 1 Mountain 1 Nutrition 1 1 1 Co. 1 1 1 Brands Keurig Green Hostess Hostess Cargill Juul Labs 2 2 2 Mountain 2 2 2 2 2 2 4* Blue Diamond Mark Anthony McKee Foods 3 Energizer 3 3 Boston Beer 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Growers Brands 4 4 Sterilite 4 Link Snacks 4 Egglands Best 4 4 4 Post 4 Boston Beer 4 Swedish Match 2 5 5 5 5 Sterilite 5 5 Hostess 5 5 Schwan Food 5 Goya Foods 1 Driscoll Ocean Spray Sterilite Land O Lakes 6 Danone Energizer 6 6 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 Strawberry Cranberries The Wonderful 7 Bic 7 7 7 7 7 7 Abbott 7 7 CJ Foods 1 SIZE Co. - Schwan Food Link Snacks Land O Lakes 8 8 Swedish Match 8 Land O Lakes 2 8 8 8 8 8 8 Co.
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