Chapter -1

General Introduction

Contents

1.1 Introduction - 1 1.2 The Vedic Period (10,000-8,000 BP) - 3 1.3 The Ramayana Period (8,000-7,000 BP) - 4 1.4 The Mahabharata Period (7,000-6,000 BP) - 4 1.5 The Indus Valley (5,000-4000 BP) - 5 1.6 Period of Social Transformation through Religion - 6 1.7 Period of Compilation of Ancient Hindu Scriptures - 6 1.8 Post-Buddha Period - 7 1.9 The Little Ice Age (LIA) - 7 1.10 A Brief History of Raingauge - 8 1.11 Instrumental Temperature Variations - 10

Reference - 14 Figures - 18 Chapter I General Introduction

CHAPTER -1

General Introduction

1.1 Introduction

Understanding the science of climate change and impact of rising trend in global tropospheric temperature on environment, hydrometeorological services and society are important problems of contemporary research. Fluctuation in global temperature has been relatively less (15°C±1.5°C) during the past 10,000 years (Holocene or the whole recent) compared to the earlier period since the land- atmosphere-water came into existence 4.1 billion years ago when it ranged between 22°C and 11 °C. But the small variation in temperature during the Holocene period drastically affected the cultural evolution of the human society of the Indian subcontinent (Singh and Ranade 2009).

Climate refers to a mean state of the atmosphere considering intrinsic dynamics characterized by interannual variation, seasonal cycle and diurnal cycle. Climate change is defined as a significant change in climatic conditions (radiation, temperature, pressure, wind, cloud and precipitation) during a specific period compared to the preceding period capable of causing considerable impact on the settled ecosystem (vigor, vitality and type of natural and man-made ecosystems). Like the Earth, the Earth's climate has a history extending over -4.5 billion years. Processes in the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere (snow cover, sea ice, and continental ice sheets), biosphere, and lithosphere (such as plate tectonics and volcanic activity) and certain extraterrestrial factors (such as the Sun) have caused these changes of climate. Thus, duration of climate change varies drastically from one scientific discipline to another. The climate change is gradual rather than abrupt and relative rather than absolute. Short period climatic changes are useful to understand changes in weather pattern. A provisional time-scale to gauge climate change in different scientific disciplines is, geological -106 years, geophysical -105 years, anthropological -104 years, archaeological -103 years, historical ~102 years, climatological -30 years, (hydro) meteorological -10 years and media and press few hours to few days (Singh et al. 2010b). The numerical value of the time scale is not

1 Chapter I Geiwi'al Inti•oduction the sharp boundary rather than length of the window-width, which can move one or two steps on both sides. Climate change research requires borrowing knowledge from subjects like geography, geology, geophysics, meteorology, climatology, hydrology, atmospheric sciences, agriculture, oceanography, remote sensing and geographic information system (RS-GIS), palaeo-climatology, palaeo-hydrology, anthropology, mythology, archaeology, history, economics, politics, psychology, religion, philosophy, spirituality, literature and, indology, though the list is not exhaustive (Singh et al. 2010 a&b). An overview of the impact of climatic change on evolution of humans in the Rift Valley (eastern Africa) around 2.5 million years ago, evolution of human society over Indian subcontinent in the past 10,000 years and human activities across India in recent few decades and years is in order.

Evolution of Humans: Humans and human society have evolved in the backdrop of climatic changes. The human society is destined to live with worries for the future security of food, clothing, shelter, health, education, employment, economy, environment, communication and transportation. In the tropics, climate change refers to extreme climatic fluctuations between availability and non-availability of water. Further, concern of human beings for water is wide-ranging: divine-philosophical, chemical-biological, spiritual-religious, climatic-cultural, scientific-engineering (computational) and services-society. Adequate fresh water availability is essential for spiritual growth of human beings and healthy physical-material human society. Drastic and complicated spatial and temporal changes are expected in the general atmosphere and an Asia-India monsoon circulation as as the availability of fresh water across the globe during the global warming scenario with a warming at a faster rate over the southern hemisphere (SH) than that of the northern hemisphere (NH). During dry climate spirituality, religion, philosophy, literature, peace, mercy, compassion and charity dominate the psyche of the people, and during the wet climate economics, power, politics, trade, wealth, commerce, insanity, looting, corruption, invasion and war.

The humans were evolved from the Great Apes (chimpanzees, gorillas and orangutans) due to occurrence of dry climate in the Rift Valley (East Africa) about 2.5 million years ago. During droughts, the Great Apes started walking by raising them on their two back legs in search of food. In due course, they could walk faster on two

2 Chapter I General Introduction legs and started migrating towards better habitation and food. Around 100,000 years before present, the modern looking man emerged in the Middle East. Besides hunting, the humans started collecting food grains from the wild. Down the line, the humans learnt the art of cultivating some wild plants to produce food grains, which marked the beginning of the Culture, and a discovery in the human civilizing process. Earliest known sites of the Neolithic Culture are Levant (Jericho, Palestine) and Byblos (Lebanon) that go back to around 9,500BC to 9000BC, the 'Fertile Crescent' in the Middle East (semicircular area across northern part of the Syrian Desert and extending from the Nile Valley to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers) 9000 BC, the Culture (Baluchistan, Pakistan) 7500 BC, the and the (East Asia) 7500BC to 5000BC and the Ganga plains (India) 7000 BC to 5000 BC.

Evolution of Hitman Society in Indian Subcontinent: In the following, climatic changes over the past 10,000 years and cultural evolution of the Indian subcontinent are described (Archibald 2007; Dansgaard et al. 1969; Fagan 2009; Frawaley and Rajaram 2009; Radhakrislina 1999 a & b; Rigveda 1993; Saroj Bala 2003; Singh et al. 1974; Singh and Ranade 2009 and Tilak 1903).

1.2 The Vedic Period (10,000-8,000 BP)

The first five mandalas (chapters) of the Rig Veda provide ample evidence that rivers flowed in northwestern India from snow-ice melt, and there was mention of clouds, rain, thunder and lightning in the remaining five mandalas. This type of climatic condition occurred prior to 8,000 BP that is during ending phase of the last glacial period and start of Holocene. The snow-ice melt-fed perennial Saraswati flowed from Shimla to Arabian Sea via Himachal Pradesh, Punjab-Haryana-Delhi, Rajasthan and Gujarat. At the time the humans started practicing agriculture, they had understanding that everything in existence was important to them. The people with spiritual knowledge enjoyed great respect in the society. The large masses opted for lifestyle conducive for spiritual knowledge; the guru-protege lineage, in which accumulated and new generated knowledge were described in refined language (Sanskrit Shlokas), and transferred orally from generation to generation. With this lifestyle, the human society lived in the Saraswati River basin for about 2,000 years (10,000-8,000 B.P.). Around 8,000 B.P., the snow-ice cover in lower-upper western

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Himalaya exhausted due to warmer atmosphere (global annual surface air temperature {GASAT} > 15°C) and the Saraswati River desiccated to a dry channel. Sixteen shlokas in the Rig Veda provide vivid description of fluctuating behavior of the Vedic Saraswati: sometimes there were heavy floods, sometimes low flows, sometimes no flows and sometimes changes in its course. Further, freezing and melting of the Saraswati River also occurred during this period.

1.3 The Ramayana Period (8,000-7,000 BP)

As the flow started diminishing in the Saraswati River, the people migrated towards east along the bank of the Ganges River and south (peninsula) while searching water bodies of fresh water e.g. rivers, lakes, streams etc. The GASAT was about 15°C, and the Asia-India monsoon was similar to present day - ample monsoon rainfall and moderate summer and winter seasons. Large masses of the people practiced agriculture. Recent archeological findings suggest that Neolithic Culture flourished in the Ganga plains during 9,000-7,000 BP, and there were cultivation of crops like rice, hulled barley, bread-wheat, dwarf-wheat, lentil, green-gram, grass- pea, field-pea, horse-gram, sesame, grape, common vetch and Job's tear (Pal 2008; Pokharia et al. 2009; Tewari et al. 2006). However, the lifestyle of the human society that evolved in the Indo-Gangetic Plains was different compared to that of the Vedic Period. Kishkindha Kanda of the Valmiki Ramayana in its 66 shlokas provides evidence that the Indian peninsula received ample rains when Indo-Gangetic Plains was relatively drier.

Around 7,000 B.P., the GASAT became more than 15.5°C and there was a westward shift in 'heat low' (prime component of Asia-India Monsoon) from northwest India-Pakistan to Iran-Saudi Arabia and core rainfall activities from central India-and-Indo-Gangetic plains to northwestern India. The people started migrating towards west and the Ramayana Culture in the Indo-Gangetic plains started waning.

1.4 The Mahabharata Period (7,000-6,000 BP)

During 7,000-6,000 BP, the NH temperature was higher than 16° C. The atmosphere was the hottest compared to other parts of the Holocene period and the summer monsoon was the wettest due to excessive heating of the dry and high lands of the southern and central Asia. The northwestern India-Pakistan-Afghanistan sector

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received very high monsoon rainfall, which supported perennial rivers (including Saraswati) and thick vegetation in the region. There is a documentation of 172 perennial rivers in the Bhisma Parva of the Mahabharata. This time the Saraswati River was a rain-fed perennial river while it was a snow-ice melt-fed river during the Vedic Period. A detailed account of rainy and other seasons is given in Harivansh Pur an.

Around the end of the Mahabharata War, the NH temperature started falling sharply and went below 15°C. Frequent failures of monsoon rains escalated the miseries of the war-torn country. This condition prevailed for about 1,000 years. The Saraswati became a dry channel. The people from northwestern India started migrating eastward and southward, and they got a refuge south of Vindhyan mountain range, which was somewhat warm and wet. Due to the Mahabharata War and dry climatic conditions, the human society was completely shattered that time, and it took nearly 2,000 years by the time the society resumed some normalcy around 3,500 BP. After the precious archaeological discovery of Neolithic sites at Jhunsi and Lahuradewa, we, conclude that the Vedic, the Ramayana and the Mahabharata Periods are the real life human history of the Indian subcontinent rather than fictional mythology, and they occurred between 11,000 BP and 6,000 BP and not around 3,500 BP as believed by almost every one.

1.5 Indus Valley Civilization (5,000-4000 BP)

During cool and dry epoch of 1,000 years (6,000-5,000 BP), there was large migration of people from Middle East and central Asia in search of food and water in the Indus Valley. Around 4,500 BP, the NH temperature rose to around 16°C and northwestern Indian subcontinent started getting ample monsoon rainfall. The Saraswati started flowing third time but as ephemeral (seasonal) river. This emergence might have altered the drainage pattern of the Saraswati River of the Mahabharata Period. Hence, the LANDSAT imageries can only decipher the drainage pattern of the Saraswati River of the Indus Valley Period but not of the Mahabharata and the Vedic Periods. Highly civilized people lived in the Indus Valley during 5,250- 3,750 BP. A collection of 31 scholarly articles published in an edited book 'Vedic Sararvati - Evolutionary History of a Lost River of northwestern India' (Radhakrishna and Merh eds. 1999), provide vivid description of fluctuations of the

5 Chapter I General Introduction

Saraswati River (clear water flow, floods, low flow and later shift in the course) during 10,000 - to 4000 BP. Education, agriculture, art, architecture; trade, commerce and urban planning were quite advanced. Around 4,000 BP the NH temperature decreased to less than 15°C, monsoon rains started failing frequently and northwestern India became a dry province. Majority of the Indus Valley population lost their existence in the valley due to hunger and epidemic, and some lost after migrating some distances in the east and south. An excellent account of the Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) is reported in an edited book 'Frontiers of the Indus Civilization7 containing 50 scholarly articles (Lai and Gupta eds. 1984). Dominant evidences suggest that while genesis of the civilization was associated with occurrence of wet climate (monsoon) condition, the decline was caused by the occurrence of dry climate (monsoon).

1.6 Period of Social Transformation through Religion

Jainism (Dawn of Religion): In the post-Indus Valley Period (4,000-3,500 BP) a group of people started strictly practicing some moral, ethical and social values to propagate the philosophy of mercy, compassion and non-violence in order to overcome atrocities in the society. This practice to keep human society in order came to be known as Jainism or Jain Religion. This religion had great impact on society.

1.7 Period of Compilation of Ancient Hindu Scriptures

Hinduism (Religion of subcontinent east of the Indus River): After seeing the effect of Jainism the large population got consolidated as much bigger religious group under the banner of the Hinduism. There are four components of every religion- place of worship, the holy book, mythology and rituals. For Hinduism these components were derived from Gods and Goddesses, wisdom, spirituality, philosophy and rituals of the Vedic through the Ramayana and the Mahabharata Periods. One of the religious activities of the Hindus was to compile the vast knowledge available in oral form. By the end of 10' century BC Hinduism became the religion of large masses of the Indian subcontinent. The community enjoyed some material prosperity during 1,400 BC to 600 BC with warmer atmosphere and wetter monsoon.

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1.8 Post-Buddha Period

During 2,600-2,300 BP, the NH atmosphere was cooler (-14° C) and the Indian monsoon drier and frequent and severe droughts occurred over the Gangetic Plains. The longest drought of 100 years occurred around 400 BC. According to the description of rainy season available in the Rig Veda, the Valmiki Ramayana, the Mahabharata and the Manu Script, the summer monsoon was of four months duration over the Indian subcontinent.

Around 2,000 BP the NH temperature was greater than 15.5°C. The monsoon was wetter over the Indian subcontinent. Some of the most important historical events took place during this period such as rise and fall of the mighty Roman Empire and the origin of the Christianity. Around 1,600 BP the NH temperature was below 15° C. During this period, Prophet Mohammad propounded Islam. During AD 800-1300, the NH temperature was greater than 15° C. The period is widely known as medieval warm period. India has experienced wetter monsoon and wealthy society.

1.9 The Little Ice Age (LIA)

The LIA started around 1250 AD. Portuguese, French, Mongols, Turks, Arab, Afghans and British invaded India. In addition, foreign rulers ruled it for more than 700 years. Equipped with scientific power, the ambitious ruling and elite class people from extratropics invaded tropics for wealth and other material acquisition. The country witnessed mixing of large number of European, African and Asian cultures.

The tropics have produced countless spiritual masters where food, clothing and shelter are not so pressing. On the other hand, the extratropics have produced countless science masters where the requirement is highly pressing. This is known as environmental, geographic or climatic determinism that is the climate determines the conscious, conscience and culture of the humans and human society. So human society can be culturally divided into two broad groups: hot climate (or tropics) and cold climate (or extratropics). In tropics, effect of climatic determinism increases as age of the humans' increases, therefore, younger mind must be conditioned through social and economic determinisms in order to protect sovereignty and identity of the state and the society.

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1.10 A Brief History of Raingauge

Since long period rainfall data are used in the present research program (Chapters II & III), a brief history of invention of raingauge is felt pertinent. The first mention of raingauge is found in an ancient Indian book ''Arthashastra'' (the science of politics and administration) written by Vishnugupt Chanakya 'Kautilya' towards the end of the fourth century B.C. (Rangarajan 1992). About the raingauge it is stated therein that 'In (front of) the store house, a bowl with its mouth as wide as an aratni (about 18 inches) shall be set up as a raingauge'. The distance from the elbow to the tip of the small finger of the hand was taken as one 'aratni'. Unfortunately, there is no mention of the shape of the raingauge.

The measurement of rainfall was made in the unit of drona- a drona is about 511 cubic inches. For a cylindrical raingauge with the diameter of 18 inches (or surface area ~ 254.3 sq. inches), 1 drona is about 2 inches of rain. It is interesting to note that the Arthashastra provides a description of the rainfall distribution across the country. We quote, 'The quantity of rain that falls in the country of Jangala (forests) is 16 dronas, half as much more in moist countries; as to the countries which are fit for agriculture- 13.5 dronas in the country of an immense quantity in western countries, the borders of the Himalaya, and the countries where channels are made use of in agriculture. When one-third of the requisite quantity of rain falls both during the commencement and closing months of the rainy season and two-thirds in the middle, then the rainfall is (considered) very even.'

Kautilya classification of clouds is of considerable interest: 'Three are the clouds that continuously rain for seven days; eighty are they that pour minute drops; and sixty are they that appear with the sunshine- this is termed rainfall. Where rain, free from wind and unmingled with sunshine, falls so as to render three turns of ploughing possible, there the reaping of good harvest is certain.' The 2nd earliest mention of rainfall measurement is found in a Palestinian book 'Mishnah\ The book provides documentation of nearly 400 years of Jewish cultural and religious activities in Palestine, from sometime around the earlier half of the second century B.C. to the close of the second century A.D. The raingauge was used during the time of the iMishnah\ The shape and size of the raingauge is not mentioned, but the unit of measurement was tefah, one tefah is about 9 cm (Biswas 1970).

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The raingauges in were used as early as 1247 A.D. As described in the Chinese book 'Shu Shu Chiu Chang' (Mathematical treatise in nine sections) by Chhin Chiu Shao the raingauges were of conical or barrel-shaped vessels. Further details are not available except that one was installed at every provincial and district capital. In Korea, the measurement of rainfall started in 1441 A.D. The Raingauge was invented during the reign of King Shejon of the Chosun Dynasty considered as the golden age of the Korean civilization. Mounted on a granite pillar about 1 metre high the ancient Korean raingauges (or Korean tsche yu chhi, or Cheuk-U-Gi or rain- measuring instrument) were about 30 cm deep and 14.2 cm in diameter. The use of Cheuk-U-Gi for the measurement of rainfall was discontinued after the year 1907, and the use of modern Symons type raingauge started. The Cheuk-U-Gi measured rainfall data is available only for Seoul Observatory for the period 1777-1907; all others were destroyed during Japanese occupation of Korea.

The raingauges were not used in Europe until about the seventeenth century. Around 1639 A.D., Benedetto Castelli of Italy made some isolated experiments with a non-recording raingauge. His raingauge was a glass jar about one palm deep and half palm wide. Around that time, Sir Christopher Wren devised two recording type raingauges, one of which was later modified by Robert Hooke. S. Horsely designed the earliest approximation of the modern non-recording raingauge. His cylindrical raingauge was of 3 inches diameter and 10 inches deep. He started the direct measurement of depth of rainfall, rather than first weighing the rainwater and then reducing it to depth. Dobson (1777) measurement of rainfall corresponded with present standards. The raingauge he made was a well-varnished 12-in.-diameter tin funnel, which was fixed on to the top of a large store bottle by means of a grooved cork, the use of which was primarily intended to reduce evaporation. Some of the references, which are of historical importance in the invention of raingauge, are as follows (Biswas 1970):

i. Richard Townley during 1629-1907 made a round funnel type of raingauge with 12-in.diameter (Townley 1694).

ii. Pierre Perrault and Edme Mariotte around 1678 arranged measurements of rainfall by a square vessel of 2 ft. diameter (Biswas 1970).

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iii. Physicians Kindman and Kanold measured rainfall for the period 1717 to 1727 by inventing a conical raingauge (Horton 1919).

iv. Leutinger (1725) measured weight of rainfall by a hyetometer, which had a square funnel leading to two glass tubes of different diameters, the one with smaller diameter fitted below the larger one in a series.

v. Leupold (1726) non-recording type instrument had a 9-in. square receiver and the quantity of rainfall was measured in a glass tube. He also invented two automatic raingauges.

vi. Pickering (1744) opined that more accurate measurements of rainfall could be obtained using receiver of small diameter. He made a raingauge with a tin funnel of 1 sq. in. area fitted to a glass tube of '/2-in. diameter and 2 ft length. The instrument was mounted on a board that was hung against the rail atop of his house.

In the beginning of the nineteenth century, Dalton (1802) provided a brief and precise definition of raingauge: 'The raingauge is a vessel placed to receive the falling rain, with a view to ascertain the quantity that falls upon a given horizontal surface at the place. A strong funnel, made of sheet iron, tinned and painted, with a perpendicular rim two or three inches high, fixed horizontally in a convenient frame with a bottle under it to receive the rain, is all the instrument required.' Often suspicions are expressed concerning reliability of old observations. We quote Symons (1866) for British rainfall data and Walker (1910) for Indian data: ' I desire to meet at the very outset an objection sometimes raised, viz., that we cannot trust very old observations I maintain that we can trust them... I think them far more reliable than many modern ones; for in the 17th and early part of the 18th century, to measure the fall of rain was esteemed a serious undertaking, only to be accomplished by first-class men.'

1.11 Instrumental Temperature Variations

From analysis of monthly, seasonal and annual surface air temperature variations of the period 1881-1980, Jones et al (1982) concluded end of cooling of 1940s, 1950s and 1960s and beginning of warming from late 1970s over northern hemisphere and Kelly et al (1982) that over arctic regions. Since then, numerous

10 Chapter I General Introduction studies reported surface air and upper air temperature variations on global, hemispheric, zonal, regional, sub-regional, local and point scales, and now 'global warming' is an accepted fact by the scientific community which is believed to be due increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (mostly carbon dioxide CO2) in the atmosphere. Hingane et al. (1985) reported rising trend in the surface air temperature over India comparable to global trend. Variations in monthly tropospheric (1000-200- hPa) temperature over the equator (2.5°S-2.5°N) during January-1949 to June-2012 are shown in Figure 1.1. The temperature has increased by 0.45°C, from -7.15°C, during 1949-1978 to -6.73°C during 1979-2012. Over the same period, the increase in tropospheric temperature over the North Polar Region (60°N-90°N) is +0.60°C (from -26.54°C to -26.13°C), north subtropic (20°N-40°N) +0.32°C (from -11.61 °C to -11.29°C), south subtropic (20°S-40°S) +0.77°C (from -13.51°C to -12.74°C) and South Polar Region (60°S-90°S) +0.66°C (from -35.9°C to -35.24°C). Nowadays, nearly real-time basis data and maps of the monthly surface air temperature anomalies across the globe are regularly published by the NASA (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), and 6-hourly and daily temperature of standard isobaric levels by the NCEP-NCAR website

(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html). Instrumental rainfall data for India is available for the period 1813-2012 (Figure 1.2). The chief features of the all-India monsoon rainfall fluctuations are (Singh and Ranade 2008; Sontakke et al. 2008):

1813-1869 (dry) - India experienced frequent droughts and famines due to failure of monsoon caused by the little ice age. Routine instrumental meteorological observations started at Chennai (Madras). The most important event of this period was the start of Railway by the Indian government on demand of the people to transport food grains from one part of the country to another.

1870-1894 (wet) - Control of all the meteorological observations across the country was taken over by the central government, India meteorological Department (IMD) started functioning from 1875 for all weather, and climate related purposes. Attempts were made for the first time to foreshadow the performance of the summer monsoon. Movement for popularizing Hindi as a national language started.

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1895-1941 (dry) - The country experienced frequent droughts and expansion of Thar Desert towards east and southeast was reported, and large number of palaces, forts, monuments was built under food for work program. Large-scale western style education started in the country. The IMD under the leadership of Sir G.T. Walker started operational long-range forecast of summer monsoon rainfall.

1942-1964 (wet) - Construction of large , dams and canal network started in the country. India's population grew at a faster rate during this period.

1965-1994 (fluctuating.) - Numerous measures were adopted by the federal government under the banner of'Green Revolution' to meet the food-grains demand of the growing population. Agricultural production increased sharply due to management of water resources and adoption of advanced for agricultural purposes. Effective systems were developed for large scale storage of the food grains.

1995-2012 (dry) - Though surface air temperature of the northern hemisphere is rising but overall performance of summer monsoon rainfall is weaker. It is a paradoxical situation as the Asian summer monsoon is a thermally driven circulation system. Spatial pattern of recent trends in Hydrological Wet Season (HWS) rainfall is shown in Figure 1.3 (Ranade et al. 2008). Though major parts of the country are experiencing decreasing trend, northwest India is experiencing positive trend. This is consistent with the decreasing tendency in the arid area of the country reported by Singh et al (1992), and shrinking tendency in deserts of the whole India based on land use/cover (LUCC) data of the period 1880-1980 (Haynes 1999; Figure 1.4). Earlier it was suggested that the Indian desert was spreading (Winstanley 1973). On the other hand, 'best estimate' climate models scenario is 4°C increase in atmospheric temperature by the end of 21st century (Bernstein et al. 2007), and its likely impact 8% increase in the Indian monsoon rainfall (Kripalani et al. 2007). The core issue that has been addressed in this thesis is 'why summer monsoon is weaker in the era of global warming though it is a thermally direct tropical circulation?' The entire thesis has been divided into six technical chapters besides Introduction (Chapter I) and Conclusion (Chapter 8). The main focuses of each of the six technical chapters are as under-

• Chapter-II: Areal representation of the all-India rainfall series is weak; therefore, spatial variation of the moisture regions has been examined to

12 Chapter I General Introduction

understand large-scale fluctuation of the annual rainfall over the country, and dry and wet zones that of seasonal and monthly rainfall using data from ubiquitous 316 raingauge stations of the period 1871-2006. The sequential rainfall maps of the country have been prepared showing dynamic pictures of spatial variation (expansion/contraction) of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall.

• Chapter-Ill: Keeping in view of the recent emphasis on development and management of wetlands in the country as well as the limited practical value of the large-scale rainfall studies, the monthly/seasonal and annual rainfall fluctuations over major physiographic divisions and subdivisions/provinces have been studied using available longest continuous instrumental rainfall data (1813- 2006) in this chapter.

• Chapter-IV: Clouds and outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) are important features of monsoon circulation and its variability. Characteristics of these two parameters and their associated relationship with the important features of monsoon circulation and its variability over and across India are described in this chapter.

• Chapter-V: Large portion of the annual rainfall over the country during summer monsoon (June through September) is associated with low-pressure area, interannual variation in intensity and frequency of the low-pressure and high- pressure areas are reported in this chapter.

• Chapter-VI: In this chapter, an index has been developed to quantify intensity of the Asia-Pacific monsoon circulation to understand effect of global atmospheric changes on the monsoon circulation. Similar index has also been developed to quantify intensity of the general atmospheric circulation.

• Chapter-VII: Reasonable reliable rainfall forecast is a dream of researchers on monsoon. A strategy has been developed in this chapter for analysis of real-time global weather maps and prediction of monsoon rainfall across the country.

• Chapter-VHI: This chapter gives the overall summary of the entire research work reported in this thesis, followed by some concluding remarks and an outline of future research plan.

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Dobson D. (Mil): Observations of annual evaporation at Liverpool in Lancashire, Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society of London, 67, pp. 24-259.

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Haynes Edward S. (1999): Land use, Natural resources and the Rajput State, 1780- 1980, In: Desert, Drought and Development: Studies in Resource Management and Sustainability (R. Hooja and R. Joshi eds.), Chap. 3, Rawat Publications, Jaipur, pp. 53-119.

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Kripalani R.H., Oh J.H., Kulkarni A., Sabade S.S., Chaudhari H.S. (2007): South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol, 90, pp. 133- 159.

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Pickering R. (1744): A scheme of a diary of the weather; together with draughts and descriptions of machines subservient thereunto, Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society of London, 43, pp. 1-18.

Pokharia A.K., Pal J.N., Srivastava A. (2009): Plant macro-remains from Neolithic Jhunsi in Ganga Plain: evidence for grain-based agriculture, Current Science, 97, 4, pp. 564-572.

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Radhakrishna B.P. (1999a): Holocene chronology and Indian pre-history, keynote address, In. Vedic Sarasvati-evolutionary history of a lost river of northwestern India (eds. B.P. Radhakrishna and S.S. Merh), Memoir 42, Geological Society of India, Bangalore, pp. xvii-xxv.

Radhakrishna B.P. (1999b): Holocene chronology and the dawn of Indian civilization, In. Vedic Sarasvati-evolutionary history of a lost river of northwestern India (eds. B.P. Radhakrishna and S.S. Merh), Memoir 42, Geological Society of India, Bangalore, pp. 1-13.

Rigveda (1993): Rigveda ka Subodh Bhashya, Part I (569 pp), Part II (351 pp), Part III (347 pp), and Part IV (348 pp), Vasant Shripad Satvalekar, Shwadhyaya Mandal, Pardi, Balsar Dist, Gujarat.

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Sontakke N.A., Singh N., Singh H.N. (2008): Instrumental period rainfall series of the Indian region (1813-2005): revised reconstruction, update and analysis. The Holocene, 17, pp. 1055-1066.

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300 400 500 Month during Jan1949-Jun2012

Figure 1.1: Monthly troposphere (1000-200-hPa) temperature variation over the equator (2.5°S-2.5°N) during January 1949 - June 2012. Blue curve indicates actual value, red 12-month running means, pink long-term linear trend and dotted black the mean value of the whole period.

18 Chapter I General Introduction

200 Years of Instrumental All-India Monsoon Rainfall: 1813-2012

1000

Bie-Maan; Back- Acbjei; Fted-9Fbrt QussanSrrcoth 1 340 I i A, li lit ii « liillftl* J l L AUG KiAi iiinii UAAlii . !Wl 111 UtfiMttlMUUt u a. "'" W* 190 fj^rr ji'invff

1810 1860 1930 1970

Figure 1.2: All-India summer monsoon rainfall variations during 1813-2012. The bottom four panels show the monsoon monthly rainfall series (actual values black and 9-point Gaussian smooth values red).

19 Chapter I General Introduction

M 80 84 88 93 —I 1 i 1 i i i i i • • i 1— i6

INDIA River Basins

**u

wc Oanag< Decrease ncrease Stationary

_i •

Figure 1.3: Geographical distribution of recent tendency in annual rainfall across India (Ranade et al., 2008).

20 Chapter I General Introduction

350000 -I ia(*1000) Sfwater Wetland 300000 Desert

250000 Grasses

200000 • Int. Woods Forest

150000 Built-up

100000 Arable

50000

o I- ooooooooooo ooooT-ojcoTfru>O)0)d>O)0>CT0)

Figure 1.4: Land use/ cover change over India during 1880-1980.

21