A Strategy for a Long Peace
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A Strategy for a Long Peace Steven Kosiak Andrew Krepinevich Michael Vickers 1730 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Suite 912 Washington, DC 20036 A Strategy for a Long Peace by Steven Kosiak Andrew Krepinevich Michael Vickers Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments January 2001 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent public policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking about defense planning and investment strategies for the 21st century. CSBA’s analytic-based research makes clear the inextricable link between defense strategies and budgets in fostering a more effective and efficient defense, and the need to transform the US military in light of the emerging military revolution. CSBA is directed by Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich and funded by foundation, corporate and individual grants and contributions, and government contracts. 1730 Rhode Island Ave., NW Suite 912 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 331-7990 http://www.csbaonline.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... I The Future Security Environment......................................................................... i The QDR: A Flawed Blueprint .............................................................................. ii Military Transformation ...................................................................................... iii Meeting Near-Term Security Requirements ....................................................... iv Military Service Transformation Initiatives......................................................... v Homeland Defense.............................................................................................. vi The Nuclear Forces ........................................................................................... vii Alliances and Basing ......................................................................................... vii Ends and Means: Realistic and Responsible Defense Planning....................... viii I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 A World Transformed ........................................................................................... 1 II. THE CHANGING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT.................................................................... 3 Rising Powers and Economic Transformation .................................................... 3 The Military Revolution........................................................................................ 4 Power Projection and the Anti-Access/Area-Denial Challenge ..................... 5 Space .............................................................................................................. 6 Sea Control, Sea Denial and Threats to Maritime Commerce....................... 6 Irregular Warfare ............................................................................................ 7 Urban Eviction ................................................................................................ 7 Homeland Defense ......................................................................................... 8 III. BEYOND THE QDR.................................................................................................... 9 The Strategy-Program Disconnect ...................................................................... 9 The Plans-Funding Mismatch............................................................................. 11 The FY 2002–07 Plans-Funding Mismatch......................................................... 12 Transformation and the Plans-Funding Mismatch............................................. 12 IV. TRANSFORMATION STRATEGY .................................................................................. 15 The Need for an Anticipatory, Defense-Wide Strategy ..................................... 15 The Core Elements of Transformation .............................................................. 16 The Fundamental Importance of Vision and Leadership .................................. 17 Leap-Ahead Technology and Experimentation ................................................. 19 Organizational Slack and Institutional Change................................................. 21 A New Approach to Procurement ...................................................................... 22 Divestment and the New Economics of Defense .............................................. 22 The US Force Posture in 2025 ........................................................................... 23 V. READY NOW—AND READY LATER............................................................................. 25 Military Readiness: Ready for What?................................................................. 25 Refocusing and Rebalancing the Strategic Imperatives .................................. 26 VI. TRANSFORMING THE ARMY ...................................................................................... 29 The Challenge .................................................................................................... 29 The Response .................................................................................................... 30 VII. TRANSFORMING THE NAVY AND MARINE CORPS ......................................................... 35 The Challenge .................................................................................................... 35 The Response .................................................................................................... 36 VIII. TRANSFORMING THE AIR FORCE ............................................................................... 43 The Challenge .................................................................................................... 43 The Response .................................................................................................... 44 IX. HOMELAND DEFENSE .............................................................................................. 47 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Defenses ............................................................... 47 Defense Against Biological and Information Attacks ....................................... 49 X. TRANSFORMING THE STRATEGIC TRIAD ..................................................................... 51 XI. TRANSFORMING THE INDUSTRIAL BASE ..................................................................... 53 The Challenge: A Smaller—and Different—Defense Industrial Base ................ 53 The Response .................................................................................................... 54 XII. TRANSFORMING AMERICA’S ALLIANCES ..................................................................... 59 XIII. TRANSFORMING AMERICA’S GLOBAL BASING STRUCTURE............................................ 63 Sanctuaries........................................................................................................ 64 Peripheral Bases................................................................................................ 64 Distributed Bases .............................................................................................. 65 Mobile Basing..................................................................................................... 65 Extended-Range Capabilities ............................................................................ 66 Rapid Base Development................................................................................... 66 Next Steps ......................................................................................................... 66 XIV. FUNDING TRANSFORMATION AND MATCHING DEFENSE MEANS AND ENDS ...................... 67 Transformation Funding Wedge......................................................................... 67 XV. CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................... 73 Great Challenges—and a Great Opportunity ..................................................... 73 A Transformation Strategy—One Approach ...................................................... 74 The Need to Begin Now ..................................................................................... 75 XVI. ACRONYMS............................................................................................................ 77 ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has enjoyed a period of military dominance that, with the exception of the brief period at the end of World War II, is unsurpassed in our country’s history. This has given America an opportunity presented to few countries in the course of recorded history: the opportunity to lead the way in creating the conditions for a long peace. But periods of extended military dominance are rare in history, and the current period will likely prove no exception. Nor can the US military’s current advantages be sustained by a business-as-usual approach to defense planning. The Strategy for a Long Peace presented here does not seek a Pax Americana. Instead, it calls for the US military to transform itself to maintain a significant margin of superiority over any potential rival, while leveraging key alliance relationships to extend our current military advantage and, by extension, global stability. THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Defense