1993/94

Syria’sRegionalPositionImproved–RelaxationofSecurity–GulfWarParticipation –GrowingConfidenceinEconomy–GasDevelopment

Following Damascus’ pro-coalition stance during the Gulf crisis, Syria’s trade and commercial relations with the West have picked up. Similarly, Syria’s move towards a more market-oriented economy, reflected in its favourable invest- ment legislation and the easing of trade restrictions, is attracting increased for- eign investment. Government officials acknowledge that successful private in- vestors will eventually seek a political voice, but many believe that this is very difficult to achieve without reforming the political system and a gradual edging towards freedom of speech. Concern has been voiced about the president’s health, but officials and diplomats in Damascus maintain that he is fit. Presi- dent Hafez al-Assad admitted in an interview published in London in May 1993 thatageingwasarealityonehastofaceupto.

RifaatReturns Although Syria has the potential to establish a successful mixed economy, a free market will depend on the outlook of the president’s successor. This is a task which has been the subject of every discussion in government, business, trade unions, army and diplomatic circles. The return to Damascus from exile in August 1992 of President Assad’s brother, Rifaat al-Assad – the nominal vice president–furtherfuelledspeculationsaboutasuccessor. However, Rifaat is not seen as having any real power within the political and military establishment. The first sign of rehabilitation in Syria’s standards would be the appearance of Rifaat’s picture in the dominantly state-run media but this is unlikely to happen since the image of the president’s oldest son, Basil al-Assad, has been actively promoted since 1992. Posters of him with his father, the president, and graffiti supporting the ‘noble son’ started to appear on walls of various cities. An indication of further political thaw came when the presi- dent granted amnesty in late November 1992 to 554 political prisoners. The move came in the wake of the 22nd anniversary of President Assad’s ‘Corrective Movement’. Since December 1991, when Assad was re-elected to a fourth seven-year term of office, more that 4,000 political detainees have been re- leased from prison. It was expected in the first half of 1993 that a number of Syri- ans imprisoned for ‘economic misdemeanour’ (the violation of the Foreign

© koninklijke brill nv, leiden, ���9 | doi:�0.��63/978900439�533_0�9 1993/94 211 Exchange Law 24) would be pardoned during the year. However, Amnesty In- ternational claims that several hundred political prisoners are still in deten- tion.

RelaxedSecurity Relaxation in the country’s tight security and surveillance system is an indica- tion of the effort the Syrian authorities are making to attract foreign invest- ment. This relaxation was made possible by the Gulf War since the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq and its subsequent events changed the regional balance of power. In the late 1980s Syria’s fortunes were not looking so bright. Assad’s position had been weakened and his country’s security concept undermined. Its contin- ued closeness with Iran during and after the Iran-Iraq war was raising ques- tions among some of the region’s leaders. Its economy was in trouble, thereby obliging the government to cut military build-up plans. Most importantly, its Soviet strategic friendship collapsed with the fall of the Soviet Union and East- ern bloc. Anticipating this reality, President Assad had by 1989 initiated a series of diplomatic moves to improve Syria’s position in the Arab arena – the most importantofwhichwasSyria’sreconciliationwithEgypt. When the Gulf crisis began, Assad’s participation in the coalition enhanced Syria’s position regionally and improved its standing internationally. Its rela- tions with Egypt and Saudi Arabia became close, while the Syrian leadership developed a dialogue with the US administration. This culminated with a sum- mit meeting in Geneva between Presidents Assad and Bush. Syria remains committed to the Middle East peace talks. This was restated at a Latakia sum- mit meeting between Assad and Egypt’s president Mubarak after the tenth- roundtalks. As well, Syria has shown no intention of abandoning its strategic alliance with Iran which dates back to the 1980–88 Iran-Iraq war. Damascus feels that Irancanbecontainedthroughregionalco-operation. Syria’s flourishing commercial and trade relations with its northern neigh- bour, Turkey, were being hampered by a lack of a new accord on the sharing of crucial water resources. However, after the January 1993 visit to Damascus by the then-prime minister of Turkey, Süleyman Demirel (now president), the two countries stated that they were determined to reach an agreement on sharedwaterresourcesbytheendoftheyear. Previously, Turkey had demanded that an agreement could only come after 1996 by which date the Ataturk Dam would be filled. A water-sharing agree- ment between Turkey and Syria would provide a follow-up to the 1987 accord. The latter agreement allocated both Syria and Iraq a share of the 500 cubic