CANADIAN ISSUES

The First Six Months of the Harper Administration

Teresa Gutiérrez-Haces* s r e t u e R / e i t t a W

s i r h C

INTRODUCTION time he has been in office. 1 Each call for elec - tions reflects a specific set of political cir cum - Traditionally the tone and rhythm of Canadian stances, and the prime minister and his party are fe d eral elections are very different from electora l fr equently re-elected. Prime ministers like Pierre processes in Mexico and the U.S. Unlike either Trudeau, Brian Mul ro ney and Jean Chrétien of these, the sitting prime mi nister of Canada governed the country for long periods because can call for elections at any time, bringing his each was re-elected several times; the last two, mandate to an end, regardless of the length of in fact, won consecutive mandates with major ity governments. In both cases the prime mi nister

* Researcher at the UNAM Institute for Economic needs to have the political skill necessary to dis - Research. cern the extent to which his administration

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can seek a further extension of its initial mandate, without over-reaching in such a way that their party and the country Unlike some of his more fortunate predecessors are plunged into a crisis of incalcula - the new prime minister ble proportions. was not able to form a government backed by a majority In either of these cases the legal and consisting solely of his own party. political paradigm that is invoked to jus - tify the decision to call for new elect - ions is that of a “loss of confidence” in the current administration, since with - out that framework of legitimacy the complicated by an economic crisis that tory to press forward with its free trade cohabitation of parties and of the prim e afflicted the country during this period , initiatives, including the negotiations minister in parliament becomes difficult blamed by many on the CUFTA . Under which culminated in NAFTA . This case and prevents the government from suc - these circumstances Mulroney opted to demonstrates that a a second and even cessfully carrying out its program. call for new elections, once he reali zed a third skillfully planned call for elections Given the political idiosyncracy of that his popularity ratings had drop ped can revive a failing mandate and enable Ca nadians, who typically place a high considerably and that he needed to it to implement significant changes in priority on moderation and balance and re inforce his initial mandate if he want - policy that it would otherwise be im pos - on consensus-building in preference to ed to carry out the economic and c on - sible to pursue. more polarizing solutions, clearly a call sti tutional reforms he had come t o The elections held in early 2006 for new elections is always the most con sider necessary. 2 Mulroney took ad - were a very different matter since they appropriate, and perhaps most ele gant vantage of this campaign to divide his ev idently included an ineffective prime and peaceful way to bring a poor ad - opponents who had initially converged minister and a governing party that was ministration to a close or simply to r e - in an anti- NAFTA bloc. This coalition widely questioned on both moral and direct the nation toward specific shifts had temporarily brought together key political grounds, and which sought to in policy that could not be undertaken members of the Liberal ( LP ) and New seize the opportunity to reform and in successfully without a specific electora l Democratic ( NDP ) Parties as well as the the final instance redefine itself, in the mandate. main union and NGO leaders. None - crucible of heated opposition. In this One example of this is that of con - theless this opposition coalition even - sense, the way former Liberal Prime servative Prime Minister Brian Mul - tually became divided as the country Mi nister was forced to roney (1984-1993), who won 211 seat s became engulfed in the historic con - resign and call for new elections exem - in his first election, an overwhelming stitutional debate which re sulted from plifies a unique case where the conven - majority in parliament. Although Mul - the Meech Lake Accords. in g of elections was intended to elim - roney had noted during his campaign, It is because of this landscape in inate further risk of the country facing in reference to U.S.-Ca na d ian relations , which national concerns were divided a deeper political crisis. that it was difficult to “sleep with an between free trade and the appropriate elephant,” in fact he trusted in his ma - distribution of power between the fed - jority support in parliament and initiate d eral government and the provinces, and THE MOTION THAT MADE HISTORY negotiations which laid the groundwork Quebec specifically, that Mulroney sur - for a free trade pact with the U.S. prisingly obtained a second mandate On very rare occasions a no confidence But the CUFTA brought enormous despite the sharp decline in his popu - motion 3 has obtained the votes neces - po litical problems for Mulroney, since larity, and won 170 seats in parlia ment. sary in the Canadian system to compel generally felt that such a It made him the only prime minister to the dissolution of a government and a pact had not been specifically includ - win two consecutive elections with a call for new elections. Nonetheless by ed in their initial mandate for his gov - significant majority since 1957. This the end of 2005 the loss of confidence ernment. This discontent was further conservative government used its vic - by members of parliament in Paul Mar -

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tin unleashed a political crisis of such ic picture in Canada and that the Martin nationalist sentiments, including their magnitude that a censure motion of this government had remained independent traditional mistrust of the U.S. govern - kind drew 171 votes. 4 Canadian voters regarding the Iraq war —supported by ment, and the fear that Harper would as a whole responded in kind by with - Canadian public opinion— these fac - prom ote a deeper process of inte gratio n drawing their initial support for Martin tors were not enough to mitigate the with the U.S. Their TV campaign ads and inflicting a punishing defeat on the discontent that had been provoked by reflected this “anti-Americanism,” and Liberals. ’s victory as the scandals and abuses of this party their slogans constantly reiterated that leader for the New Conservative Party over the last 12 years. Harper was very popular among the ex - (NCP ) reflected the overwhelming tide Fiscal irresponsibility, proven cases tre me right in the U.S. and was Bush’s among Canadians and their represen - of corruption, and lack of transparency “best friend.” In a desperate effort to tatives in parliament against a prime in the exercise of power by the Liberals revive his popularity, Martin emphat - minister and a party that in the past had carried greater weight with the voters ically protested statements by the U.S. enjoyed enormous popularity; the Li b - than the independent stance Martin ambassador who requested that all can - eral Party had governed Canada with - had pioneered for Canada regarding the didates abstain from criticizing the out interruption since 1993. U.S. government’s anti-terrorist poli - U.S., to which Martin responded that cy. Not even the Martin government’s no one would dictate to him which official discourse about a “new multi - th emes he should or should not address. THE CONSEQUENCES lateralism” was enough, nor did its coop - Harper, meanwhile, promoted his eration with the U.S.’ anti-missile shield pro posed government program, which The way in which all of this played itself succeed in reversing the negative swin g included elements that helped swing out is illustrative. Although the voters in public opinion about his remaining in the campaign in his favor. Among the opted for the new Con servative Party, office. most interesting proposals was his it is equally true that only 64.9 percent pled ge to shape a role for the country’s of them went to the polls to deliver a THE CAMPAIGN pro vinces in international forums; to in - strategical ly conditioned mandate for FROM A DISTANCE crease the defense budget until 2015 Stephen Harper. 5 As a result the new and increase troop strength to 75,000; prime mi nister was not able to form a During the last few months of the cam - to support the U.S. anti-missile shield government backed by a majority con sist - pa ign the Liberals, aware of their scant ini tiative; not to veto the recently ap - ing solely of his own party, unlike some possibilities of victory, focused their proved law legalizing gay marriages; to of his more fortunate predecessors. 6 att acks on the New Conser va ti ves, allud - create a national information agency; Much has been written about the i ng to the ideological links Harper had to arm customs guards; to increase the ca uses which contributed to the Li bera l forged with hard-core right wing sectors number of police on street patrol; to de bacle. Nonetheless the most impor - in the U.S. grant revenue-collecting authority to tri - tant lesson to be learned from this case The Liberals sought to win based bal governments in order to reduce thei r is that despite a very favorable eco nom - on a campaign grounded in Canadian dependency on federal funding; and to free all parliamentary votes from party discipline except those regarding bud - getary matters. Many of these campaign promises Some of Harper’s pro mises, sought to respond to specific interest like legalization of gay marriages, were above all groups which had been neglected dur - motivated by his maneuvering for political support and did not ing 12 years of Liberal government. Evi - reflect a genuine personal commitment. dently the provinces —Quebec, in par - ticular— were receptive to these, as well as the armed forces, who had borne serious budget cuts during the pre ced -

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ing years. The same thing applied to he was elected in his own right as a mem - national force, and its ideological posi - Canada’s indigenous peoples, who have ber of the House of Commons for the tioning as the vanguard of all center- historically been confined to reser va - district of Calgary-West. right forces in Canada. This process tions, manipulated by subsidies, and His political history bears the mark culminated successfully in 2003, afte r by privileges traditionally conceded by of two decisive influences. The first is overcoming the resistence of the old the federal government in exchange for that left by , one of guard in the Progressive Conservative their restriction to these territories. the most powerful men of the Cana - Party and recalcitrant sectors of the Obviously some of Harper’s pro- dian West, who founded the Reform right in the Canadian West. mises were above all motivated by his Party in 1987, which he continued to Finally, with the support of Peter maneuvering for political support and be a member of until 1997 when he de - Mackay, a Conservative Party member did not reflect a genuine personal com - cided to seek out other options along of parliament, the New Con ser va tive mitment. The legalization of gay mar - Canada’s rightwing spectrum. The sec - Party was created. It was the product riage s was not a cause close to his hear t, on d key influence was that of Stockwell of a merger of the historic Pro gres sive but Harper did not want to face the risk Day, the first leader of the Canadian Conservative Party, primarily based in of the negative campaign that would Alliance ( CA , whose full name was the Eastern Canada, with its origins ex tend - result from his opposition to the recog - Ca nadian Reform Conservative Alli - ing all the way back to the period of nition of these unions. On the other an ce), and who came to play a role of the establishment of Ca nada’s Confe d - hand, all matters related to national se - equa l weight in his political develop - eration in 1867, and the Canadian curity issues laid the basis for a spec ta - ment to that of Manning. Harper had a Alliance, whose greatest base of pop - cular reconciliation with the Bush a d mi n - meteoric career within this party that led ularity is in the western regions of the istration and foreshadowed Harper’s him in 2002 to succeed Day as its leade r. country, and which in turn had its ori - supportive approach to the Canadian This catapulted him in turn to leader - gins in the merger of Preston Man ning’s role in the U.S. global “anti-terrorist” ship in the process of negotiations which Reform Party and ’s own war, the collaborative management of sought to bring together all of the par - . shared borders and Canada’s partici - ti es, groups, and individuals of the Ca - In March 2004 Harper was elected pation in the Secu r ity and Prosperity na dian right into a single convergent bloc . to the leadership of the New Conser - Partnership of North America. A few months later he was elected vative Party and was re-elected as head to parliament as a member of the CA of the opposition in parliament as a from the Calgary-Southwest district result of the federal elections held in THE WINNER : W HO IS HARPER ? and became head of the official oppo - June 2004. During his campaign he sition in the House of Commons on distanced himself tactical ly from the Stephen Harper has a first rate politi - May 21, 2002. From that moment for - most hard-core rightwing sectors in cal biography highlighted by his ability war d, and from his base in the CA , the province of , as well as from to carve out new spaces for the right wing Harper promoted his overall political the Republican Party in the U.S., but in Canada. He was originally a member strategy, which envisioned the forma - this was a purely circumstantial ma - of the Progressive Conser vat ive Party tion of a unified rightwing party as a neuver. and left its ranks precisely when it was being led by Brian Mulro ney. He then in itiated a longtime sojourn in Calgary where he joined a group of conserva - During his campaign Harper distanced himself tives who in 1987 formulated the plat - tactically from the most hard-core rightwing sectors form of what soon became Canada’s in the province of Alberta, as well as from Reform Party. In 1989 he began to wor k the Republican Party in the U.S. in the parliamentary arena as an aide to Deborah Grey, the first Reform Part y member of that body; then in 1993

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tain related mechanisms, such as the Security and Prosperity Partnership. He can try to work along two parallel Harper is a profound believer tracks, activating both the internal re - in free trade, and he insists that Canada forms he believes are necessary and must strengthen its relationship with the U.S., with those related to North America, but if an eye toward fuller interdependence. he feels that his domestic measures are faltering, he will opt for a deepening of Canada’s relationship with the U.S. This implies an acceleration of measures Harper has never hidden his own quite liberal, such as Quebec), in part of economic and military integration religious inclinations nor his links to du e to a series of alliances between the with his neighbor, including greater li b - groups that promote a literal interpre - con servatives and the Bloc Québécois. eralization in terms of U.S. access to Ca - tat ion of the Bible. H e is a profound be - For its part the opposition in par - nadian sources of energy and natural liever in free trade, and politically he liament is wagering that Harper’s gov - resources. insists that Canada must strengthen ernment will be short-lived and that During the recent North Amer ica n its relationship with the U.S., with an meanwhile they will have the oppor - summit held in Cancún in March, eye toward fuller interdependence. tunity to reconstruct their bases and besides reviewing the latest advances No netheless his approach to Canada- re cover popular support. This approach and planning next steps in terms of the U.S. relations does not imply absolut e could be costly since Harper knows how Security and Prosperity Partnership, subordination to U.S. interests. to play this game and is determined to Harper focused on his main unifying Recently the U.S. government has impose his vision and program, while aim: closer relations with the U.S., since re asserted its claims to the Arctic, with the opposition trusts that his time will he is very conscious of the fact that Mex - specific reference to Harper’s initiative run out before he is successful. ico’s President Fox is about t o com - to place ice-breaking vessels in this re - Harper has inherited a heavy bur - plete his term in office, and tha t his own gion. U.S. Ambassador Wilkins declared den of international commitments such time may be short before he has to call that Washington does not recognize Ca - as CUFTA and NAFTA , which date from for new elections. nadian sovereignty over Arctic waters, the Mulroney administration, and oth - In Cancún both Harper and Fox in alignment with other countries with ers from his Liberal predecessors, such sought Bush’s acquiescence about two a similar stance. Harper responded that as the Security and Pros perity Partner - pr oblems which, if resolved, imply major the U.S. should defend its own sover - ship of North America, the Kyoto pro - political victories for each. President eig nty, and Canada would do the same , tocol, and more recent commitments Fox pressured on migration policy, 7 since his mandate comes from the Ca - related to NAFTA and Canada’s role in while Harper sought a negotiated solu - nadian people, not from the U.S. am - the WTO . tion to the longstanding dispute with bassador. These include some that weigh on the U.S. regarding Canadian soft wood him more heavily, such as Kyoto, be - exports. 8 For his part Bush took advan - cau se he disagrees with their substance, tage of his colleagues’ expressed con - THE FIRST SIX MONTHS and others in the commercial realm that cerns regarding security issues to rein - he is sympathetic to but would rather force his policy of building a shared One of the most important achieve - approach on a more ad hoc basis. North American Security Perimeter, ments of the 2006 elections was the The prime minister’s agenda can be and “smart” borders. fact that Quebec joined the mandate summarized in terms of three principal None of the three proposed to re- for the New Conservative Party, which centers of gravity: decentralization, re - open existing provisions of NAFTA for fo r the first time consolidated rightwing duction in the size of government and renegotiation, and instead agreed that gains in Eastern Canada (particularly deeper integration with the U.S. In orde r its impact over 12 years had been pos - noteworthy in a province considered to pursue these he must activate cer - itiv e, and any such steps to re-open its

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and , the only woman who has served thus far in this office, who governed for four months (1993). A triumph by Andrés Ma nuel López Obrador 2 In 1 985, almost two years alter being re-elect - might facilitate the option that Ca nada has been prioritizing ed, polls indicated that 60% of Canadians for some time: the re covery of the exclusively bilateral cha racter wanted to replace him. of its relations with the U.S. 3 A no confidence motion is a measure where - by one or various members of parliament can exercise their right to promote the prime minister’s removal from office, which implies parliament’s withdrawal of confidence in his provisions would be counter-produc - important to assess the current state of government and compels the dissolution of the cabinet and a call for new elections. tive. In this fashion they swept aside a re lations between Canada and Mexico ,

long trail of citizen protests that have particularly when Canadian corpora - 4 The no confidence motion was proposed by de manded revision of NAFTA ’s Chapte r tions, frustrated by the failure to carry , leader of the . The House of Commons approved it XI regarding standards for investment, out fundamental reforms in Mexico’s by a vote of 171 to 133, with support from and the criteria used to select those energy sector, have decided to look three opposition parties: the New Conser - who serve on the conflict resolution elsewhere for countries where it would vative Party, the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois. panels provided for in the agreement. be easier to invest their capital. The recent summit meeting offers A possible triumph by Andrés Ma - 5 Only 64.9 percent of registered voters cast some helpful insights into the likely nuel López Obrador, characterized as vo tes for 309 members of the House of Com - dynamics of the Harper administration . a populist, in Mexico’s elections might mons. Ca nada employs the British “winner- take-all” system whereby the only winner in a n The fact that the three governments facilitate the option that Ca nada has elect oral district is the top vote-getter; the re- accepted a work plan acc ord ing the been prioritizing for some time: the re - main ing votes are discarded since there is no sys tem in Canada of proportional representation . greatest priority to bilateral meetings b y covery of the exclusively bilateral cha - each of the partners with the U.S., with racter of its relations with the U.S. It 6 The New Conservative Party won 124 seats, greater emphasis than their trilateral is worth considering whet her the U.S . followed by the Liberals with 103; the Bloc agenda, clearly reflects both Bush and government will acquiesce to this ap - Québécois won 51 and the New Democratic Party 29; one seat was won by an indepen dent. Harper’s sentiments. Both of them are proach, or continue promoting a trila - very inclined to negotiate matters bila t - teral dialogue which, although imper - 7 Concretely, Fox proposed to President Bush erally despite the existence of a trina - fect, might enable it to consolidate its that they share responsibility for the migration ti onal framework both as a result of NAFT A geoeconomic strategic objectives in issue and seek domestic solutions for improv - ing border security. He also committed him - and of the evolving partnership. North America. self to shoring up border surveillance with Even before Harper’s taking office, Central America and openly asked the U.S. president for support in the congressional Canada had begun to insist on a strat - debates for the creation of a temporary work - egy for relations with the U.S. leading er program. to a new bilateral agreement for deepe r integration. In order to follow through 8 Trade litigation about soft wood exported to NOTES the United States and the return of U.S.$5 on this agenda Harper must send cer - million collected as compensatory duties by tain signals to the Canadian population , Washington were the central topics of the 1 bilateral Harper-Bush meeting. Also touched su ch as the resolution of the soft wood There have been prime ministers like Sir John Macdonald (1867-1873 and 1878- on was the growing opposition by Canadians commercial dispute. Without some spec - 1891) who governed for 19 years; Sir Wilfrid to legislation that will come into effect December 31, 2007, which will require the tacular advance along these lines it will Laurier (1896-1911) who did so for 15; William Lyon MacKenzie King (1921-1926, use of a passport designed in accordance with be very difficult for the conservative 1926-1930 and 1935-1948) who served for anti-fraud specifications imposed by the Harper government to move ahead alon g 22 years; and for 15 (1968- United States. Another issue that came up 1979 and 1980-1984). Others, such as Joe was the need for Harper to give greater back - the road of its own North American Clark, served only nine months (1979-1980); ing to the functioning of the North American agenda. In this context it would also be served for three months (1984); Aerospace Defense Command ( NORAD ).

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