BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY. Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Harald Hagemartn

VOLUME I

Some Early Classics

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2002 CONTENTS

Note on Copy Texts viii. Introduction .- ix

Clement Juglar, 'Introduction: Comprising a Condensation of the Theory of Panics' in A Brief History of Panics and their Periodical Occurrence in the United States 1 John Stuart Mill, 'Influence.of Credit on Prices' in The Principles of 29 John Mills, 'On Credit Cycles and the Origin of Commercial Panics' 55 Karl'Marx, 'Accumulation and Reproduction on an Enlarged Scale' in Capital: A Critique of Political Economy 89 Karl Marx, 'Ricardo's Theory of Accumulation and a Critique of it' in Theories of Surplus Value '133 William Stanley Jevons, 'Commercial Crises and Sun-Spots' in Investigations in Currency and Finance _ 171 A. R Mummer)' and J. A. Hobson, extracts from The Physiology of Industry ' 197 Alfred Marshall and Mary Paley Marshall, 'Changes in the Purchasing Power of Money' in The Economics of Industry 217 Alfred Marshall, 'Fluctuations of Industry, Trade and Credit' in.Money, Credit and Commerce 227 Wesley C. Mitchell, 'Business Cycles' in Business Cycles and Unemployment 259 Joseph Kitchin, 'Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors' 275 Simon Kuznets, 'Rapidity of Growth and Amplitude of Fluctuations - the Rationale' in Secular Movements in Production and Prices 283 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Harald Hagemann

VOLUME II

Structural Theories of the Business Cycle

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO , . 2002 CONTENTS

Introduction vii

Mikhail I. Tugan-Baranovsky, 'The Causes of Crises in the Capitalist Economy' and 'The Industrial Cycle and the Causes of the Periodicity of Crises' - 1 Arthur Spiethoff, 'Preliminary Remarks to a Theory of Overproduction' 45 Knut Wick'sell, 'The Enigma of Business Cycles' 77 , 'A New Theory of Crises' 95 Arthur Spiethoff, 'Business Cycles' 107 Albert Aftalion, 'The Theory of Economic Cycles Based on the Capitalistic Technique of Production' 207 Dennis H. Robertson, review of Tugan-Baranovsky's Les Crises industrielles en Angleterre and A. Aftalion's Les Crises pe'riodique de surproduction 215 Marco Fanno, 'Production Cycles, Credit Cycles and Industrial Fluctuations' 225 Friedrich August von Hayek, 'The Conditions of Equilibrium Between the Production of Consumers' Goods and the Production of Producers' Goods' in Prices and Production 263 Howard S. Ellis, 'The Significance of the Production Period for the Theory of Crises' 285 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Harald Hagemann

VOLUME III

Monetary Theories of the Business Cycle

TONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2002 CONTENTS

Introduction vii

Minnie Throop England, 'Promotions as the Cause of Cycles' 1 Irving Fisher, 'Our Unstable Dollar and the So-Called Business Cycle' 21 R. G. Hawtrey,'The Trade Cycle' 47 A. C. Pigou and R. G. Hawtrey, 'The Monetary Theory of the Trade Cycle' | ,' 65 Ludwig von Mises, 'Money, Credit and Interest' in The Theory of Money and Credit 87 A. C. Pigou, 'Correctives of the Trade Cycle' 117 Friedrich August von Hayek, 'Some Remarks on the Relation of Monetary Theory to Business Cycle Theory' .161 Adolf Lowe, 'On the Influence of Monetary Factors on the Business Cycle' 199 Gunnar Myrdal, 'WickseU's Statement of the Problem of Monetary Theory' in Monetary Equilibrium 213 Irving Fisher, 'The Debt-Deflation'.Theory of Great Depressions' 235 , 'Money and the Business Cycle' 257 Jacob Viner, 'International Aspects of the Gold Standard' 291 Henry C. Simons, 'Banking and Business Cycles' 331 Dennis H. Robertson, 'A Survey of Modern Monetary Controversy' 337 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Harald Hagemann

VOLUME IV

Equilibrium and the Business Cycle

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2002 CONTENTS

Introduction . vii

Adolf Lowe, 'How is Business Cycle Theory Possible at All?' 1 Friedrich August von Hayek, 'The Problem of the Trade Cycle' 31 Eiigen Slutzky, 'The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes' 55 Simon Kuznets, 'Equilibrium Economics and Business-Cycle Theory' 99 Erik Lundberg, 'On the Concept of Economic Equilibrium' 137 Friedrich A. Lutz, extract from The Problem of Business Cycles in Economics 175 Gustavo Del Vecchio, 'On the Economic Theory of Crises' 239 J. R. Hicks, 'Equilibrium and the Trade Cycle' 289 Ragnar Frisch, 'Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics' 303 Oskar Morgenstern, 'Perfect Foresight and Economic Equilibrium' 337 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Mauro Boianoysky

VOLUME V Economic Growth, Technical Change and Business Cycles

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2005 CONTENTS

Note on Copy Texts viii Introduction ' ix

Joseph A. Schurnpeter, 'On the Nature of Economic Crises' 3 Dennis H. Robertson, extract from^ Study of Industrial Fluctuation 51 , extracts from Theory of Social Economy 139

i. Alvin H. Hansen, extract from Business-Cycle Theory: Its Development and Present Status . 193 Joseph A. Schumpeter, "The Explanation of the Business Cycle' 257 Joseph A. Schumpeter, "The Instability of Capitalism' 285 Joseph A. Schumpeter, 'The Analysis of Economic Change' 313 Erik E. Lundberg, extract from Studies in the Theory of Economic Expansion 325 Roy F. Harrod, 'An Essay in Dynamic Theory' 389 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Mauro Boianovsky

VOLUME VI The Accelerator, Overaccumulation and Underconsumption

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2005 CONTENTS

Introduction • vii

Thomas N. Carver, 'A Suggestion for a Theory of Industrial Depressions' 3 Gustav Cassel, 'Of Crisis and Bad Times' 9 Albert Aftalion, 'The Reality of General Overproduction: Essay on a Theory of General and Periodic Crises' 51 John A. Hobson, extracts from The Industrial System 131 Otto Bauer, 'Otto Bauer's "Accumulation of Capital"' 179 John M. Clark, 'Business Acceleration and the Law of Demand: A Technical Factor in Economic Cycles' 205 William.T. Foster and Waddill Catchings, extract from Business without a Buyer . 227 Mentor Bouniatian, "The Theory of Economic CyclesBased on the Tendency toward Excessive Capitalization' 249 Ragnar Frisch, "The Interrelation between Capital Production and Consumer-Taking' . 265 Roy F. Harrod, extract from The Trade Cycle: An Essay 277 Gottfried Haberler, extract from Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements 293 Paul A. Samuelson, 'Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration' 327 Paul A. Samuelson, 'A Synthesis of the Principle of Acceleration and the Multiplier' 333 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Mauro Boianovsky

VOLUME VII Saving, Investment and Expectations

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2005 CONTENTS

Introduction ' vii

Walter Bagehot, 'Why Lombard Street is Often Very Dull and Sometimes Extremely Excited', extract from Lombard Street 3 Frederick B. Hawley, extract from Enterprise and the Productive Process j ' 41 Nicholas Johannsen, extracts from A Neglected Point in Connection with Crises^ 105 Frederick Lavington, extracts from The Trade Cycle 141 Arthur C. Pigou, extracts from Industrial Fluctuations 177 Richard F. Kahn, 'The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment' 215 Alvin H. Hansen and Herbert Tout, 'Annual Survey of Business Cycle Theory: Investment and Saving in Business Cycle Theory' 243 Friedrich A. von Hayek, 'Capital arid Industrial Fluctuations - A Reply to. a Criticism' 275 Dennis H. Robertson, 'Industrial Fluctuation and the Natural Rate of Interest' ' 293 Gottfried Haberler, 'Some Reflections on the Present State of Business Cycle Theory' 303 David G. Champernowne, 'Unemployment, Basic and Monetary: the Classical and the Keynesian' 313 Bertil Ohlin, 'Some Notes on the Theory of Savings and Investment' 331 Richard F. Kahn, 'The League of Nations Inquiry into the Trade Cycle' . 371 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY: VOLUME VII

Gottfried Haberler, extracts from Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements • 383

Page Conversions 435

y BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY Selected Texts 1860-1939

Edited by Mauro Boianovsky

VOLUME VIII Quantitative,.Business Cycle Analysis

LONDON PICKERING & CHATTO 2005 CONTENTS

Introduction vii

Vilfredo Pareto, 'Economic Crises', extract from Cowrs D'Economie Politique 3 Henry L. Moore, extract from Economic Cycles: Their Law and Cause 23 C. Bullock, W. Persons and W. Crum, 'The Construction and Interpretation of the Harvard Index of Business Conditions' 61 Jan Tinbergen, 'Business Cycle Research and the Calculus of Variation' 83 Jan Tinbergen, 'Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: An Example' ,95 Jan Tinbergen, 'A Shipbuilding Cycle?' Ill Ragnar Frisch, 'A Method of Decomposing an Empirical Series into Its Cyclical and Progressive Components' 127 Ragnar Frisch, 'Review of J..Akerman's Om det Ekonomiska Livets Rytmik' 135 Luigi Amoroso, 'A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Economic Dynamics' 159 Jan Tinbergen, extract from 'The Notion of Horizon and Expectancy in Dynamic Economic Theory' 183 Michal Kalecki, extract from 'Essay on the Business Cycle Theory' 191 Wesley C. Mitchell, 'Business Cycles' 225 Michal Kalecki, 'A Macrodynamic Theory of Business Cycles' 243 Jan Tinbergen, 'Annual Survey: Suggestions on Quantitative Business Cycle Theory' 263 Jan Tinbergen, 'An Economic Policy for 1936' 333 vi BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY: VOLUME VIII

Michal Kalecki, 'A Theory of the Business Cycle' 383 Nicholas Kaldor, 'A Model of the Trade Cycle' 407

Page Conversions 425 Index 427