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Inflation Theory and Anti-Inflation Policy Inflation Theory and Anti-inflation Policy Proceedings of a Conference held by the International Economic Association at Saltsjobaden, Sweden edited by ERIK LUNDBERG INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE VOLUMES. Numbers 1-50 NUMBER 47 Inflation Theory and Anti-Inflation Policy © International Economic Association 1977 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1977 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended). Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1977 This 50-volume set reprinted 1986 jointly by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTO Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world and YUSHODO CO. LTO 29 Saneicho, Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160 Japan. Tel: 03(357)1411 Distributed exclusively in Japan through Publishers International Corporation (P.I.C.) Published in the United States and Canada by 50-volume set ISBN 978-0-333-40626-7 This volume ISBN 978-1-349-03262-4 ISBN 978-1-349-03260-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-03260-0 Contents Acknowledgements vii List of Participants ix Introduction Erik Lundberg xi PART ONE: PROBLEMS OF INFLATION AND ITS ANALYSIS I Inflation: a Review of the Issues Michael Parkin and Alexander K Swoboda 3 Discussion 30 2 Recent Developments in the Theory of Inflation and Unemploy- ment Robert J. Gordon 42 3 Causes and Origins of the Current Worldwide Inflation Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda 72 ~ro~oo ~ 4 The Role of Money in the Inflation Analysis Helmut Frisch 109 Discussion 130 5 Some Problems of Current Price Movements Revold Entov 135 Discussion 146 PART TWO: INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF INFLATION 6 International Aspects of Inflation J. Marcus Fleming 153 Discussion 173 7 Policy Autonomy of Small Countries Hans Genberg 183 8 Inflation and the Exchange Rate Regime W. M Corden 209 Discussion 223 9 World Inflation under Flexible Exchange Rates Emil-Maria 238 aaassen Discussion 257 PART THREE: THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION 10 Inflation and Income Distribution James S. Duesenberry 265 Discussion 278 vi Contents 11 The Welfare Implications of Uneven Inflation Dwight M. Jaffee 285 and Ephraim Kleiman Discussion 308 12 The Welfare Costs of Inflation in Neoclassical Theory David lAidler 314 Discussion 3 29 13 Effects of Inflation on Public Revenue and Expenditure Fritz Neumark 338 14 The Growth of the Public Sector and Inflation Pressure Adolf Nussbaumer 350 Discussion 375 PART FOUR: POUCIES FOR INFLATION 15 Indexation in Israel Reuven Brenner and Don Patin kin 387 Discussion 409 16 A Revaluation of the Theory of Repressed Inflation in the light of the Experience of Some Socialist Countries Bela Csikbs-Nagy 417 Discussion 431 17 Why have General Anti-inflation Policies not Succeeded? P.M. Oppenheimer 445 Discussion 460 18 Incomes Policies Pieter de Wolff 471 Discussion 482 19 Aspects of the Theory of Indexed Bonds David Levhari and Nissan Liviatan 488 20 On the Non-existence of Privately Issued Bonds in the United States Capital Market Stanley Fischer 502 Discussion 519 21 A Summing Up Douglas Hague 530 Index 539 Acknowledgements The conference that is recorded in this volume derived its initial impetus and choice of subject from the Jubilee of the Swedish Riksbank which was being celebrated in 1975. As part of that celebration, the International Economic Association was invited to organise a conference on the very topical subject of inflation--a subject of great concern to the banking community in all countries-and the Riksbankens J ubileumsfund bore the largest share of its expenses. We are greatly indebted to Mr Kristen Rickman, Governor ofthe Sviriges Riksbank, for his interest and support in all the work of the con­ ference. The International Economic Association conference followed immediately after another conference on a kindred subject organised by the Institute for International Economic Studies; by permission of that Institute we print in this volume two papers-those by Dr. Corden and by Dr. Claassen-which were available to both conferences and received interesting and important discussion in our own. The planning of the I.E. A. conference was primarily the responsibility of Professor Erik Lundberg, one of the most distinguished of Swedish economists and formerly President of our Association, whose name very properly appears on the title-page. Finally we record, as always, our debt to our two chief sponsors, UNESCO whose regular support and annual contribution has been vitally important to our work, and the Ford Foundation whose grant has again contributed signi­ ficantly to making it possible to hold this and the whole series of conferences in which economists from a very wide variety of countries have attempted to wrestle with the major problems of the world. List of Participants Professor Odd Aukrust, Central Bureau of Statistics, Oslo, Norway Professor Alexander Bajt, University of I.Jubljana, Yugoslavia Professor Oleg Bogomolov, Institute of Economics of the World Socialist System, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Moscow Professor H. William Branson, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, USA. Mr. Reuven Brenner, Hebrew University Jerusalem, Israel Professor Martin Bronfenbrenner, Duke University, Durham, N.C., USA Professor Emil-Maria Claassen, University of Paris, Dauphine, France Dr. W. M. Corden, Oxford University, England Dr. France Cotula Banca d'Italia, Rome, Italy Professor Bela Csik6s-Nagy, Hungarian Economic Association, Budapest, Hungary Professor Wim Driehuis, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Holland Professor James S. Duesenberry, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA Professor Revold Entov, Institute of the World Economy and International Relations, Moscow Professor Luc Fauvel, Universite de Paris, France Professor Stanley Fischer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA Professor Jean Paul Fitoussi, Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France Professor Marcus Fleming, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA Professor Helmut Frisch, Technical University of Vienna, Austria Professor Hans Genberg, Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland Professor Herbert Giersch, Institut fiir Weltwirtschaft, German Federal Republic Professor Robert J. Gordon, Northwestern University, Evanston, USA Professor Douglas Hague, Manchester Business School, England Professor Dwight M. Jaffee, Princeton University, USA Professor Lars Jonung, Nationaleknonmiska Institutionen, Lunds Universitet, Sweden Mr. Michael Kaser, Oxford University, England Professor Ephraim Kleiman, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Professor David Laidler, University of Western Ontario, Canada Professor David Levhari, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Professor Nissan Liviatan, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Professor Erik Lundberg, Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden Professor Fritz Machlup, New York University, USA X List of Participants Professor Edmond Malinvaud, I.N.S.E.E., Paris, France Professor Fritz Neumark, J. W., Goethe-University, Frankfurt/Main, German Federal Republic Professor Adolf Nussbaumer, Institute of Economics, University of Vienna, Austria Mr. P.M. Oppenheimer, Christ Church, Oxford, England Professor Michael Parkin, University of Western Ontario, Canada Professor Don Patinkin, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Professor J. J. Paunio, University of Helsinki, Finland Mr. Nicolas Plessz, OCED, Paris, France Professor Stanislaw Polaczek, Warsaw University, Poland Professor Sir Austin Robinson, Cambridge University, England Professor Ingemar Stahl, Lund University, Sweden Professor Alexander K. Swoboda, Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland Professor Shigeto Tsuru, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan Professor Pieter de Wolff, University of Amsterdam, Holland Observers Mr. John P. Hardt, library of Congress, Washington, USA Professor Yoshio Miyake, Rikkyo University, Tokyo, Japan Professor Franco Modigliani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA Dr. Michael Mussa, University of Rochester, Rochester, USA Mr. Goran Wikner, Swedish Savings Banks, Stockholm, Sweden Professor Gosta Rehn, Institute of Social Research, Stockholm, Sweden Mr. John R. Stark, Joint Economic Committee, US Congress, Washington, USA Mr. R. Dornbusch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA Mr. Lars Cairnfors, Stockholm Mr. Lars Svensson, University of Stockholm, Sweden Professor V. Mshvenieradze, UNESCO, Paris, France Introduction Erik Lundberg STOCKHOLM SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS The I.E.A. conference on 'Inflation and Anti-Inflationary Policy' took place in Saltsjobaden (August 28-September 3, 1975). A number of economists from many countries, plagued by inflation in varying degrees, participated. The conference was partly linked to another meeting, a Seminar on 'Flexible Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy,' 1 which took place just before at the same venue. Some of the participants (and some of the papers) were common to both meetings. The economic and social problems of inflation are serious in many respects and on several levels of difficulty: first, it is difficult to give precise meaning to an account of the origin or causes of inflation; second, the consequences of inflation are manifold, economic, social
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