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No Half Measures Power Vacuums and Military Occupations Joseph B

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No Half Measures Power Vacuums and Military Occupations Joseph B No Half Measures Power Vacuums and Military Occupations Joseph B. Karle Dissertation submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Planning, Governance, and Globalization Ariel I. Ahram Giselle Datz Mara E. Karlin Joel Peters 11 May 2020 Arlington, VA Keywords: power vacuum, military occupation, total destruction, insurgency, counterinsurgency, nation building, international affairs, and civilian deaths [Copyright 2020 by Joe Karle. All rights reserved.] No Half Measures Power Vacuums and Military Occupations Joseph B. Karle ABSTRACT This project analyzes the relationship between military occupations and power vacuums. Specifically, it seeks to understand why some military occupations result in power vacuums while others do not. Pundits and policymakers have written extensively about the possibilities that the end of US occupations might yield dangerous power vacuums. These vacuums would create regional turmoil by inviting hostile actors and causing state failure. Based on these assumptions, many commentators caution against the withdrawal of forces. But what exactly is fearful about a power vacuum remains unclear. The concept of a power vacuum lacks defined parameters and scope, and why military occupations might lead to power vacuums is unknown. Much of the current analysis derives from familiar and recent cases of occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. David Edelstein has the most comprehensive work on military occupations, but his work does not directly address the outcome of power vacuums. This project uses a mix multimethod research design to examine which factors cause power vacuums to emerge following occupations. It uses a comprehensive dataset of occupations since 1943. It will begin with a medium-n QCA and then proceed with case studies. The ultimate goal is to identify the conditions likely to lead to power vacuums and develop policy recommendations about how to avoid them. This project theorizes that a high level of economic destruction inflicted by the occupying military is a necessary condition for the absence of a power vacuum in the occupied territory. Shortened, this project calls this theory total destruction equals total buy-in. High levels of economic destruction inflicted by the occupier pacify the occupied population, while simultaneously delegitimizing the occupied state’s previous regime. High economic destruction, which is defined as the decline of a state’s per-capita GDP and overall population, is not the sole factor in preventing a power vacuum. Combinations of other conditions help influence the advent or absence of a power vacuum, but economic destruction inflicted by the occupier is the only condition that must be present in order to prevent a power vacuum. No Half Measures Power Vacuums and Military Occupations Joseph B. Karle GENERAL AUDIENCE ABSTRACT This project examines how, when, and why power vacuums emerge at the end of military occupations. Power vacuums evoke fear from pundits and policymakers, as hostile actors can exploit power vacuums to sow instability. Yet there remains no clear definition of what constitutes a power vacuums or substantive research on their etiology and impact. Policy discussions typically look to recent US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to evaluate how the end of military engagement and occupation can create power vacuums. Thus risk of a power vacuum is often cited as justification to prolong military operations. To rectify this, this project will complete a replication and extension using David Edelstein’s seminal dataset on military occupations. The dataset includes well-known cases such as the Allied occupations of Western Germany and Japan and lesser-known occupations like the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia. Using a combination of within-case process tracing and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the project seeks to elucidate what combination of conditions generate power vacuums following military occupations. The theory this project argues is that a high level of economic destruction inflicted by the occupying military is a necessary condition for the absence of a power vacuum in the occupied territory. The crux of this theory is that occupiers that engage in protracted conflict, inflicting widespread damage on a state before occupying it, are more likely to prevent a power vacuum from occurring. This widespread damage creates “breathing space” for the occupier to establish indigenous security forces (ISF) and a friendly government without having to worry about nationalist resistance from the occupied population. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Dedicated to Harbaugh my German Shepherd, who spent nearly every second by my side (or in the yard chasing squirrels) while I worked on this damn thing. Too bad you can’t read it…you would likely hate it. There are too many people to thank who contributed to this research project, so I apologize to those I might leave out. A debt of gratitude, which cannot ever be repaid, must go to my old Third Platoon mates. They took every opportunity to make fun of me, support me and remind me that if I could not explain it to them…then I was doing something wrong. They also serve as a constant reminder that the burden of war is unevenly carried by a small number of men and women. I am eternally grateful to Dr. Ariel Ahram and my committee, who always made themselves readily available to me. A special thank you to Dr. Mohammad Tabaar and Dr. F. Gregory Gause at Texas A&M University, both of whom encouraged me to pursue a PhD. Special thanks to my “brain trust” of NAME REDACTED, Sezaneh, Moon, Martin, Greg, Bryan, John and Ambassador Barr. All of you served as valuable resources and trusted friends. And of course, a special thanks to my wife Sarah, whose love and support cannot be quantified. Without you I would have quit long ago. iv Note About Citations: The Maddison Data set specifically requested that citations be done: Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Bolt, Jutta, Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan Luiten van Zanden (2018), “Rebasing ‘Maddison’: new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development”, Maddison Project Working paper 10. According to this request, this will be done. However, to differentiate between the Rebasing document and the actual database, when specifically referencing the database I will identify each before the citation begins. Example: Database: Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Bolt, Jutta, Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan Luiten van Zanden (2018), “Rebasing ‘Maddison’: new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development”, Maddison Project Working paper 10. Rebasing Document: Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Bolt, Jutta, Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan Luiten van Zanden (2018), “Rebasing ‘Maddison’: new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development”, Maddison Project Working paper 10 Pg. Number (When applicable). Maddison Project Rebasing 2018. Pg. Number Maddison Database, 2018. Archival documents were done Chicago Style as demonstrated below: Organization, Title, Publishing Department (If Available). Document Number, State Published in: Archive Name, Year, Page Number of Document (If Listed on Document). Link to Archival Document (If Available). (Access Date). Example: CIA, The Current Situation in Italy, National Intelligence Estimates. DOC_0000009589, Washington DC: CIA Reading Room, 1947, Pg. 3. https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000009589.pdf. (Accessed October 28, 2019). The Analysis of Counter-Insurgency Database (database) was provided via zip drive by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA). Please reach out to the author for directions about how to obtain the declassified version of this. CAA was cited as: v Codebook: Analysis of Counter-Insurgency Database (Codebook). Fort Belvoir, VA: Center for Army Analysis, 2008. Pg. iii. Database: Analysis of Counter-Insurgency Database (Database). Fort Belvoir, VA: Center for Army Analysis, 2008. Pg. iii. CAA Database. vi Table of Contents CHAPTER 1 1 Introduction 1 CHAPTER 2: Literature Review 5 Significance of Research 5 Power Vacuum Scholarship 7 Occupation Literature 8 Impacts and Importance of Studying Power Vacuums 10 CHAPTER 3: Methods 12 Application of Methodology 12 Mixing Qualitative Comparative Analysis and Case Studies 14 Advantages of QCA and FSQCA 18 Source Collection 21 Case Studies 23 CHAPTER 4: Retesting the Literature 26 What is a Threat Environment? 31 CHAPTER 5: Defining Conditions 34 Defining Conditions 37 Economic Destruction 37 ISF Scores 40 Insurgency 44 Power Vacuum 45 CHAPTER 6: Conditions Justification 47 Coding The Data 47 Italy 47 West Germany 51 East Austria 55 West Austria 58 Japan 62 The Ryukyus 65 North Korea 67 South Korea 71 West Bank and Gaza 74 Cambodia 78 Syria in Lebanon 82 Israel in South Lebanon 85 Bosnia 88 Kosovo 92 Afghanistan 95 Iraq 99 CHAPTER 7: Interpreting the Data 102 Testing Our New Data 103 Results 103 High Destruction= No Power Vacuum 105 Combination of Conditions 107 High Frequency Causal Combinations 112 vii Where Do These Finding Differ from Edelstein? 113 Agreeing with Edelstein 114 Difference 115 CHAPTER 8: Italian Case Study 120 CHAPTER 9: Policy Recommendations 133 Policy Lesson One: Total Destruction is a Necessity 133 Policy Lesson Two: ISF are Weak 135 Policy Lesson Three: Power Vacuums Matter 136 CHAPTER 10: Conclusion 139 Conditions for a Power Vacuum 139 Do Power
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