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Risk and Capital Flight in Developing Countries

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Risk and Capital Flight in Developing Countries MASTER FILES ROOM C-525 . 0440 This is a working paper and the author would welcome any IMF WORKING PAPER comments on the present text. Citations should refer to an unpublished manuscript, mentioning the author and the date of issuance by the International Monetary Fund. The ©1990 International Monetary Fund views expressed are those of the author and do not neces- sarily represent those of the Fund. WP/90/64 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Research Department Risk and Capital Flight in Developing Countries Prepared by Liliana Rojas-Suarez 1/ Approved for Distribution by Donald J. Mathieson July 1990 Abstract The risks of large capital losses on the domestic assets of developing countries resulting from expropriation, inflation, or devaluations are identified as the major causes of capital flight. The combination of large foreign loans and capital flight from developing countries during the 1970s and early 1980s reflected different perceptions of domestic residents and foreign lenders regarding the risks of holding domestic assets. However, the debt crisis reduced these differences in perceived risks, and resulted in a decline of foreign loans coupled with continuation of capital flight. If sound macroeconomic and structural policies can reduce those risks, they can also stem capital flight. JEL Classification Nos.: 121, 313, 433 1/ This paper has greatly benefitted from the comments and suggest- ions of Michael Dooley, Morris Goldstein, and Donald J. Mathieson. Any remaining errors are, of course, my own. - ii - Table of Contents Page Summary iii I. Introduction 1 II. The Estimation of Capital Flight 2 III. Risk and Capital Flight 5 IV. Policies to Prevent or Reverse Capital Flight 14 1. Macroeconomic and structural policies 14 2. Capital controls 15 3. Debt-equity swaps 16 4. Foreign currency deposits 17 5. Other policies 17 V. Conclusions 18 Appendix Table 5. Estimated Capital Flight, Stock of External Debt, and External Claims for a Group of Highly-Indebted Developing Countries, 1978-88 20 References 21 List of Tables Table 1. Capital Flight in Ratio to Total External Debt and Total External Claims for a Group of Highly Indebted Developing Countries 4 Table 2. External Debt and Resource Transfer as Financing Components of Capital Flights for a Group of Highly Indebted Developing Countries, 1979-82/1986-88 6 Table 3. Capital-Importing Developing Countries with Recent Debt-Servicing Problems: Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Capital Flight as Suggested in the Literature, 1978-88 8 Table 4. Selected Highly Indebted Developing Countries Facing Debt-Service Problems: Correlation Between Capital Flight and Default Risk 13 - iii - Summary Since the emergence of the debt crisis, capital flight has been an increasing source of concern for policy makers in developing coun- tries because it implies a loss of resources that could have been used to increase domestic investment and to service debt. In this paper, capital flight is associated with the fraction of the stock of external claims held by a country's residents that does not generate recorded investment income. Two types of risk are identified as the major causes of capital flight: the risk of expro- priation of domestic assets and the risk of losses in the real value of domestic assets resulting from inflation or exchange rate devalua- tions. Different perceptions by domestic residents and by foreign lenders of the risks involved in holding domestic claims are viewed as explaining the simultaneous occurrence of large inflows of foreign capital and large capital flight from development countries during the 1970s and early 1980s. However, the paper argues that the emergence of the debt crisis reduced these differences in perceived risk and resulted in a decline of foreign capital inflows coupled with a continuation of capital flight. From the analysis in this paper, it is clear that sound macroeco- nomic policies complemented with appropriate structural reforms would have to be the key elements in stemming or reversing capital flight since only those policies can decrease the risks associated with hold- ing domestic assets. Once these core policies are in place, other policies such as debt-equity swaps or foreign currency deposits, although insufficient by themselves to solve the problem of capital flight, can potentially contribute to reducing capital flight. I. Introduction Private capital flight from developing countries has been a source of concern for policy makers, especially since the emergence of the debt crisis and the associated drastic decline in capital inflows from industrialized countries. Capital flight has been viewed as a constraint on economic growth since it implies a loss of resources that could be used for domestic investment. Moreover, it is often argued that a reversal of these capital outflows could significantly contribute to the solution of the debt crisis, and thereby to renewed access of developing countries to international capital markets. These considerations have led the authorities to consider policies that encourage the repatriation of capital flight or at least to stop such outflows. However, identifying which policies can be most effective in achieving these objectives depends crucially on what factors initiated these capital outflows in the first place. This paper reviews the factors that have been identified as stimulating capital flight from developing countries. In this analysis, capital flight is associated with the fraction of a country's stock of external claims that does not generate recorded investment income. Such external claims therefore do not generate a stream of income that can be used to service foreign debts or to finance domestic investment. Capital flight is thus distinguished from "normal" outflows of capital that would be undertaken to achieve portfolio diversification, and that would yield a recorded flow of income. The analysis in this paper suggests that increased risks in the domestic economic environment are likely to be key factors generating capital flight. In particular, two types of risks may have been particularly important: (1) default risk associated with the expropriation of domestic assets; and (2) the risk of large losses in the real value of domestic assets as a result of economic policies that result in rapid inflation or large exchange rate depreciations. Indeed, it is argued that the pattern of foreign capital inflows and capital flight from developing countries in the 1970s and 1980s can be associated with changing perceptions on the part of domestic residents and foreign lenders of the risks associated with holding the domestic and external debt of indebted developing countries. While different perceptions in the risk of holding domestic assets can explain the simultaneous occurrence of large inflows of foreign capital and large capital flight from developing countries during the 1970s and early 1980s, the emergence of the debt crisis and the accompanying policy responses reduced such differences and resulted in a decline of foreign capital inflows coupled with a continuation of capital flight. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Section II provides estimates of capital flight for a group of developing countries with recent debt-servicing problems. Section III discusses the determinants of capital flight and examines measures of the risk of default associated with holding domestic financial instruments. Section IV considers alternative policies for reducing capital flight, and Section V summarizes the main conclusions. - 2 - II. The Estimation of Capital Flight Previous empirical studies have employed a broad range of definitions of capital flight. Some authors 1/ have adopted a "narrow" approach that identifies capital flight with short-term speculative capital outflows. Others 2/ have adopted a "broad" definition which identified capital flight with total private capital outflows. An alternative approach based on a "derived measure" identifies capital flight with the fraction of a country's stock of external claims that does not yield recorded investment income. 3/ This latter definition implies that a capital outflow should be considered as capital flight only if it limits the resources available for either servicing the country's external debt or the financing of development programs. Numerous studies have compared and critically evaluated these alternative measures, 4/ and there is no general agreement on the relative superiority of each measurement. 5/ This paper uses the "derived" measure to provide update estimates of capital flight in developing countries that have faced debt-servicing problems, since it provide the most direct estimate of the economy's loss of resources that could potentially be used for domestic investment. Empirical estimates suggest that during the period 1977-88 the stock of flight capital increased for a group of developing countries that had faced debt-servicing problems (see the Appendix). 6/ 7/ The aggregate stock 1/ See Cuddington (1986). 2/ See for example, World Bank (1985), Morgan Guaranty Trust Company (1986), and Duwendag (1987). 3/ See Dooley (1986). 4/ See, for example Deppler and Williamson (1987), Gordon and Levine (1989), Cumby and Levich (1987), and Gajdeczka (1990). 5/ Perhaps the most severe criticism to all the proposed measurements is contained in Gordon and Levine (1989). They argue that severe statistical problems prevent the proposed measurements from adequately capturing the scale of capital flight. 6/ The methodology used to compute
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