Monthly Network Operations Report Analysis – March 2018 NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – March 2018 TLP: GREEN Page 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 NOTICE 2 1. TOTAL TRAFFIC 3 2. ATFM DELAY AND ATTRIBUTIONS 6 3. EN-ROUTE ATFM DELAYS 7 En-Route ATFM Delay per Location 7 En-Route ATFM Delay per Delay Group 8 En-Route ATFM Delay per Flight 9 En-Route ATFM Delay Year-To-Date 10 4. AIRPORT/TMA ATFM DELAYS 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Location 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Delay Groups 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Flight 12 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay Year-To-Date 12 5. DAILY EVOLUTION 12 6. ALL AIR TRANSPORT DELAYS (SOURCE: CODA) 13 7. ATFM SLOT ADHERENCE 14 8. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS AND ISSUES 14 Planned Events 14 ACC 14 Airports 15 Disruptions 15 9. NM ADDED VALUE 16 NOTICE Traffic and Delay Comparisons All traffic and delay comparisons are between report month and equivalent month of previous year, unless otherwise stated. Graphics All graphs in chapter 3 and chapter 4 are in average minutes of ATFM delay per day, unless otherwise stated. NM Area All figures presented in this report are for the geographical area that is within Network Manager’s responsibility (NM area). For further information on the NM Area go to the Reporting Assumptions and Descriptions document available on the EUROCONTROL website at http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/network-operations-monitoring-and-reporting. Regulation Reason Groupings The table below shows the colour coding used in the report charts. EN-ROUTE CAPACITY (ATC) AIRPORT CAPACITY (ATC) EN-ROUTE STAFFING (ATC) AIRPORT STAFFING (ATC) EN-ROUTE DISRUPTIONS (ATC) AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (ATC) EN-ROUTE CAPACITY AIRPORT CAPACITY EN-ROUTE DISRUPTIONS AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS EN-ROUTE EVENTS AIRPORT EVENTS EN-ROUTE WEATHER AIRPORT WEATHER For further information on the regulation reason groupings, go to the Reporting Assumptions and Descriptions document available on the EUROCONTROL website at http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/network-operations-monitoring-and-reporting. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – March 2018 TLP: GREEN Page 2 1. TOTAL TRAFFIC Monthly traffic trend Average daily traffic for last 5 Years 6.0% 36000 5.1% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.6% 34000 4.5% 4.2% 32000 4.0% 3.6% 4.2% 3.3% 30000 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% 28000 1.9% 2.0% 26000 24000 1.0% 22000 0.0% 20000 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR JUL OCT SEP FEB JAN AUG MAY NOV JUN DEC APR OCT MAR MAR AUG MAY NOV MAR Comparison to same month last year Rolling 12 month trend 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Traffic increased by 2.6% in March 2018i. Average daily traffic in March 2018 was the highest for March in the last five years. It could have been higher but several events slow downed the growth: Storm Emma and industrial action. Average daily traffic in March for last 5 Years 12 months rolling traffic trend Forecast date 2018-02 5.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 29000 4.0% 3.8% 28000 27,740 4.0% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 27000 27,210 26,714 3.0% 26000 25000 2.0% 24000 1.0% 23000 24186 24513 25133 26263 26953 0.0% 22000 JUL SEP FEB 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 JAN JUN DEC APR OCT AUG MAY NOV MAR BASELINE FORECAST LOW FORECAST HIGH FORECAST MAR The traffic increase of 2.6% for March was close to the baseline This graph shows the variation in average daily traffic for the last forecast updated in February 2018. NM estimates that some 12-month period relative to the previous 12-months. The average 6,600 flights were cancelled during March due to Storm Emma. daily traffic from April 2017 to March 2018 was 4.2% higher than This represents 0.8% of expected March traffic. the average from April 2016 to March 2017. Nine states added more than 50 flights per day to the European localii traffic growth. Spain was by far the strongest contributor with 218 extra daily flights owing to its flows to/from Germany (+44 flights/day) and to/from Italy (+30 flights/day); Spain’s international arrival/departure flow was up 9.4%. Turkey was second and added 197 daily flights (when it recorded 157 fewer flights per day in March 2017) due to a dynamic internal flow (+79 flights/day) but also due to its flows to/from Germany (+20 flights/day), to/from the Middle-East (+18 flights/day) and to/from the Russian Federation (+17 flights/day). Poland was the third contributor with 100 extra daily flights owing to its flows to/from Ukraine and to/from Israel (+10 flights/day for each flow) but also due to its robust flow to/from North Western Europe (+30 flights/day). Italy added 99 flights per day mainly thanks to its flows to/from Spain (+30 flights/day) and to/from the Russian Federation (+16 flights/day). Portugal (excluding Azores) and Canary Islands both added 82 and 78 flights per day. Morocco added 56 flights per day owing partly to its dynamic flow to/from France (+19 flights/day). Ukraine added 56 flights and saw its international departure/arrival flow grow by 16.5%. Germany added 52 extra daily flights and completed the list. At the other end of the scale, the United Kingdom which was impacted by severe weather conditions in early March recorded 117 fewer flights and saw its internal flow decrease by 6.7% (-70 flights/day). Norway saw 111 fewer flights due to its weak internal flow (-111 flights/day) which fell 13%. The traditional segment remained the main driver of growth with 457 extra flights (including overflights) per day and posted an increase of 3.2%. The low-cost segment went from a 1.1% growth rate in February to 2.9% growth in March and added 217 flights (including overflights) per day. Since the beginning of this year, the charter segment continued to have the fastest growth and increased by 22% (145 extra daily flights, including overflights) owing partly to the recovery of flights between Germany and Egypt and between Ukraine and Egypt. The all-cargo and business aviation segments both declined and were down -2.1% and -1.7% respectively. The aircraft operators which added the most flights to the network on a daily basis in March 2018 were Turkish Airlines (+153 flights/day), easyJet UK (+107 flights/day), Ryanair (+89 flights/day), Wizz Air (+80 flights/day) and Vueling (+70 flights/day). The top five external partners (for average daily flights on flows in both directions) were the United States with 868 flights (+5%), the Russian Federation with 681 flights (+13.3%), the United Arab Emirates with 344 flights (+2.7%), Egypt with 245 flights (+44.3%) and Qatar with 187 flights (+22.6%). For more information on EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts, go to http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – March 2018 TLP: GREEN Page 3 Seven of the top ten airports had positive traffic growth. Overall, the largest traffic increases in March 2018 were at Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion, Ankara, Gran Canaria, Lisbon and Budapest airports. The largest traffic decreases were at Düsseldorf, Birmingham, Hamburg, Oslo/Gardermoen and Milan/Linate airports. The Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion traffic increase was due to the expansion of routes made available by low-cost airlines and increased tourism. Traffic decreases at Düsseldorf and Hamburg airports are due in part to Air Berlin cessation of operations. Birmingham airport traffic variation is partially due to the Monarch cessation of operations. Eight of the top ten aircraft operators flew more compared to March 2017. The operators with the highest traffic growth were Eurowings, Jet2.com, Norwegian Air International, SunExpress Airlines and Wizz Air. The highest traffic decreases were recorded by Wideroe, British Airways Shuttle, Scandinavian Airlines System, Flybe and HOP. UK carriers were impacted by severe weather conditions. The traffic variation of Eurowings follows the continued integration of Germanwings, some Lufthansa routes and more recently ex Air Berlin operated routes into the Eurowings operation. Norwegian Air International traffic variation comes from a change in fleet size following new aircraft deliveries, as well as aircraft moving from using NAX to the IBK callsign. Scandinavian Airlines System traffic variation is due to a change in fleet size. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – March 2018 TLP: GREEN Page 4 The Sevilla, Lisbon, Canarias, Madrid and Casablanca ACCs variation is due to increased traffic in the South/West axis. However, the highest relative traffic increases in March 2018 were in Tel Aviv, Yerevan, Odessa, L’viv and Kiev ACCs. Traffic increase in Ukraine is partially due to an increase of overflights from/to Turkey. Israel is now integrated in IFPS and the inclusion of Israeli domestic traffic explains much of the traffic growth for Tel Aviv ACC. The traffic increase in Turkish ACC is due to domestic and Russian flights recovery.The traffic variation in French ACCs and Tunisia is partly due to the relative effects of several days of French ATC industrial action in March 2017. Storm Emma has influenced the variation in UK ACCs. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – March 2018 TLP: GREEN Page 5 2. ATFM DELAY AND ATTRIBUTIONS Average daily ATFM delays Average daily ATFM delays EN-ROUTE AIRPORT/ TMA EN-ROUTE 20000 18262 AIRPORT/TMA 17276 93980 18000 100000 90000 16000 74987 80000 71671 14000 12740 64230 70000 12000 10501 60000 42769 10000 50000 36394 30016 8000 40000 28763 26247 21890 30000 20277 6000 15815 15690 20000 4000 10000 2000 0 63.5% 36.5% 57.6% 42.4% 0 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR OCT AUG MAY 2017-03 2018-03 NOV MAR MAR Total ATFM delays increased by 4.4% in March 2018i.