Great Western Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation Foreword I am delighted to present the Great Western growth specifically predicted at Paddington Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) Draft for and in the Bristol area. Consultation. This sets out a detailed strategy The key themes that have emerged through for a specific part of the rail network over the the RUS are the need for additional capacity next decade, with an indicative strategy to 2030. to handle increasing demand from both As well as the Great Western Main Line itself, passengers and freight users; the need to the document covers the network north to address performance issues on key parts of the Norton Junction and Bicester Town and south route and local connectivity for improvements in to Basingstoke, Salisbury and Dorchester. The journeys into or between key cities and regional Great Western RUS borders the areas of the centres, including to and from those outside the network covered by the South West Main Line RUS area such as Birmingham and Portsmouth. and Wales RUSs, both of which have already A number of options were identified for been published, and has a significant interface development and appraisal to address with the West Midlands and Chilterns RUS, these gaps. Options to increase the length which is currently being developed. of trains, improve service patterns or to The process that has been followed is provide additional infrastructure are proposed well-established. Essentially, this involves solutions. The recommendations from this developing a detailed understanding of the process form the basis of the strategy. current situation, incorporating the implications Three gaps will be addressed further during of committed schemes and forecasts of the consultation period, including connectivity future demand for both passenger and freight and capacity between the West Midlands and services. In this way, “Gaps” are identified, the South West and the South Coast, as well and proposed “Options” are then reviewed and as the implications of seasonal fluctuations at assessed to address these gaps. Paignton. We will continue to work with key The area within the Great Western RUS is stakeholders on developing options to address about to undergo a period of immense change these gaps with the results presented in the with a significant number of large, high-profile Final RUS document. investment schemes planned or proposed As with previous RUSs, this has been over the next five to ten years, including the developed with the full input of the rest of the Intercity Express Programme, Crossrail and industry including train and freight operators. I the redevelopment of Reading station. All thank them for their contribution to date. This is these schemes have therefore been taken into a Draft for Consultation so we are now seeking account. In addition, the RUS has developed a feedback and comments to support and inform scenario that reviews the railway in light of the our further analysis. Comments are invited recent decision to electrify the Great Western before a deadline of 27 November 2009 and Main Line. we are working towards publication of the Final Despite the current economic conditions, RUS for the Great Western route in early 2010. overall passenger demand is expected to increase across the RUS area, with high Iain Coucher Chief Executive Executive summary Introduction The scope area adjoins the routes of the Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) seek South West Main Line; Wessex; South and to establish the strategic direction of the Central Wales and Borders; the South Wales railway from a systematic analysis of future Valleys; Chilterns and the West Midlands. requirements of the network. They seek to The RUS area plays a crucial role in the core balance capacity, passenger and freight cross country network, linking the South demand, operational performance and cost Coast, Thames Valley, West Country, South whilst addressing the requirements of funders Wales and South Midlands with the Midlands, and stakeholders. Greater Manchester, Yorkshire, the North East and Scotland. Network Rail is developing a programme of RUSs, in conjunction with rail industry partners Timeframe and wider stakeholders, which when complete, The Great Western RUS primarily focuses will cover the entire rail network in Great on the next 10 years to 2019 but has also Britain. This programme of RUSs includes a considered the implications of growth in Network RUS which reviews national issues demand over the next 30 years in the context such as stations, depots, rolling stock and of the Government’s 2007 White Paper electrification as well as presenting scenarios “Delivering a Sustainable Railway”. and forecasts for long distance passenger and The period from 1 April 2009 to 31 March freight markets and the established Freight 2014 is Network Rail’s current Control Period RUS providing a strategy to meet anticipated 4 (CP4). Any known commitments to 2014 freight demand to 2014. that have either formed the recent High This Great Western RUS Draft for Consultation Level Output Specification (HLOS) or have provides a further step towards achieving committed funding through other funding national coverage and has followed the now streams have been included as part of the well-established process. Great Western RUS base. Such capacity schemes and other enhancements are Scope described further in Chapter 4. The Great Western RUS sets out the strategic vision for a particular part of the rail network. CP4 marks a start of a new era for rail in The scope of the RUS is extensive and Britain as this is the first review since the diverse; the focal element being the Great passing of the Railways Act 2005, and Western Main Line (GWML) which operates introduces a new process whereby the over 320 miles and creates main line links Secretary of State issues a High Level Output from London to the West of England and Specification and a Statement of Funds South Wales. Extending from this are radial Available which sets the scene for the next five routes to Oxford, Birmingham, the South Coast years. From this, Network Rail has embarked and South West. Branch lines into the London on a national programme of expenditure suburbs, to the Devon and Cornish coast and targeted at building a bigger and better railway dedicated freight only lines complete the mix of through over 500 schemes and projects aimed routes considered. at providing extra capacity or capability for passengers and freight customers – this is the mismatched now, and where it is expected biggest expansion of Britain’s railways since to be mismatched in the future. the 1840s. The identified gaps have been analysed Within the Great Western RUS scope area to understand how best to address them, there are a significant number of major, taking into account any schemes already high-profile, high-investment enhancement proposed. In the course of this work, options schemes planned or proposed during both have been developed on an interactive basis CP4 and which continue into the next control until feasible solutions have been identified period (Control Period 5 (CP5)) from 2014 to with acceptable operational performance 2019. These major enhancement schemes that meets whole-industry value-for-money include the electrification of the Great Western criteria. In some cases there may be further Main Line; the Intercity Express Programme work required to identify additional benefits (IEP); European Rail Traffic Management in order to demonstrate a sufficiently strong System (ERTMS); the Reading Station Area economic return. Redevelopment and Crossrail. Although The Great Western RUS Draft for Consultation predominantly within the Thames Valley has been developed as a result of area, these schemes will resolve a number of considerable analysis and close collaboration current and future issues across the whole of between Network Rail, the Department the RUS area. The implementation of these for Transport, the passenger and freight interventions will significantly change the operators, Transport for London, the Office of capacity and capability of the network. Rail Regulation, Welsh Assembly Government, Through the inclusion of these improvements Passenger Focus and London Travelwatch. in the base, the RUS has been able to identify further prospective gaps. The focus of these being to input recommendations for the longer-term strategy intended to inform the Department for Transport’s (DfT) next HLOS for CP5. Process The starting point for the Great Western RUS has been to analyse the current base position of the network, combined with any committed schemes and known interventions. Demand analysis has been undertaken to ascertain the expected level of growth over the next 10 years taking into account the anticipated drivers of change. The combined analysis identifies where supply and demand is 5 Gaps The key themes that have emerged from the analysis of the current railway and what is required of it in the future is capacity (at stations, on trains and of the network), performance pinch-points and local connectivity. The following table presents the gaps identified and taken forward for further analysis under the Great Western RUS process. 1. Paddington peak capacity . I nner suburban service pattern . Paddington to Reading all day capacity . Paddington to Reading performance 5. Slough to Windsor all day capacity . Freight capacity and capability: in and around London and north-south 7. Reading peak capacity 8. Didcot to Wolvercot Jn performance 9. West Midlands to South Coast connectivity and all day capacity 10. Swindon to Gloucester performance 11. South Wales to South Coast all day capacity 12. West Midlands to South West connectivity and all day capacity 13. Bristol peak capacity 14. Bristol performance 15. Westbury area performance 16. Exeter and Plymouth area service pattern 17. Interurban journey times 18. Early morning arrivals at key regional centres 19. Station crowding 20. Seasonal fluctuations 21. Impact of Heathrow Airport expansion and western access A number of strategic gaps were also identified RUS are summarised below with a more which relate to the overall rail network.