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Using Hughes' Salvo Model to Examine Ship Characteristics in Surface Warfare

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Using Hughes' Salvo Model to Examine Ship Characteristics in Surface Warfare View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2004-09 Using Hughes' Salvo model to examine ship characteristics in surface warfare Haug, Kevin G. Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/1412 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS USING HUGHES' SALVO MODEL TO EXAMINE SHIP CHARACTERISTICS IN SURFACE WARFARE by Kevin G. Haug September 2004 Thesis Advisor: Tom Lucas Second Reader: Wayne Hughes Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2004 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Title (Mix case letters) 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Using Hughes' Salvo Model to Examine Ship Characteristics in Surface Warfare 6. AUTHOR(S) Kevin G. Haug 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) As resources constrain investment decisions, what combination of parameters most effectively cause one force to defeat another? Using Hughes' Salvo equations, simulations are conducted to investigate the singular and pairwise effects of providing one force an advantage in its offensive power, defensive power, staying power, force size, and information. The purpose is to identify specific combinations that present potential priorities in ship design and force planning. Cases are examined in terms of fraction of forces killed and surviving, and consolidated in a comparison of fractional exchange ratios between the forces. Over the range of parameters explored, when forces are closely matched, a defensive advantage allows a force to outlast another, execute damage, and limit damage incurred to its own force. The Polya distribution of shots shows that the bonus gained by attaining perfect information is a significant edge, and the hazard of failing to deny the enemy the same. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Hughes Salvo Model, ship design, surface warfare, simulation 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 82 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. USING HUGHES' SALVO MODEL TO EXAMINE SHIP CHARACTERISTICS IN SURFACE WARFARE Kevin G. Haug Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., William Jewell College, 1994 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2004 Author: Kevin G. Haug Approved by: Tom Lucas Thesis Advisor Wayne Hughes Second Reader James N. Eagle Chairman, Department of Operations Research iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT As resources constrain investment decisions, what combination of parameters most effectively cause one force to defeat another? Using Hughes' Salvo equations, simulations are conducted to investigate the singular and pairwise effects of providing one force an advantage in its offensive power, defensive power, staying power, force size, and information. The purpose is to identify specific combinations that present potential priorities in ship design and force planning. Cases are examined in terms of fraction of forces killed and surviving, and consolidated in a comparison of fractional exchange ratios between the forces. Over the range of parameters explored, when forces are closely matched, a defensive advantage allows a force to outlast another, execute damage, and limit damage incurred to its own force. The Polya distribution of shots shows that the bonus gained by attaining perfect information is a significant edge, and the hazard of failing to deny the enemy the same. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi THESIS DISCLAIMER The reader is cautioned that the computer programs presented in this research may not have been exercised for all cases of interest. While every effort has been made, within the time available, to ensure that the programs are free of computational and logical errors, they cannot be considered validated. Any application of these programs without additional verification is at the risk of the user. vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii TABLE OF CONTENTS I. MODELING TO DETERMINE SHIP DESIGN......................................................1 A. THE PROBLEM..............................................................................................1 B. THE CONTRIBUTION ..................................................................................3 II. BUILDING THE MODEL..........................................................................................5 A. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................5 B. THE BASIC MODEL......................................................................................5 C. DEFINITIONS .................................................................................................8 D. SIMULATION MODELING COMPUTATIONS........................................9 E. INTRODUCTORY EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS...................................16 1. The Basic Scenario.............................................................................16 2. Basic Scenario Results and Interpretation ......................................17 III. APPLICATION AND OUTCOMES........................................................................21 A. SINGULAR EFFECTS OF FORCE SIZE ADVANTAGE, INFORMATION ADVANTAGE, FIREPOWER ADVANTAGE, STAYING POWER ADVANTAGE, AND DEFENSIVE POWER ADVANTAGE FOR HOMOGENOUS FORCES ......................................21 1. Effects of Force Size Advantage .......................................................22 2. Effects of Information Advantage ....................................................23 3. Effects of Firepower Advantage .......................................................24 4. Effects of Staying Power Advantage ................................................25 5. Effects of Defensive Power Advantage.............................................26 B. PAIRWISE EFFECTS OF FORCE SIZE ADVANTAGE, INFORMATION ADVANTAGE, FIREPOWER ADVANTAGE, STAYING POWER ADVANTAGE, AND DEFENSIVE POWER ADVANTAGE FOR HOMOGENOUS FORCES ......................................27 1. Effects of Force Size Advantage and Information Advantage.......28 2. Effects of Force Size Advantage and Firepower Advantage..........29 3. Effects of Force Size Advantage and Defensive Advantage...........30 4. Effects of Information Advantage and Firepower Advantage ......31 5. Effects of Information Advantage and Defensive Advantage........32 6. Effects of Firepower Advantage and Defensive Advantage...........33 7. Effects of Staying Power Advantage and Information Advantage ...........................................................................................34 8. Effects of Staying Power Advantage and Force Size Advantage...35 9. Effects of Staying Power Advantage and Defensive Power Advantage ...........................................................................................36 10. Effects of Staying Power Advantage and Firepower Advantage...37 C. COMPARING EFFECTS USING THE FRACTIONAL EXCHANGE RATIO ............................................................................................................38 D. POLYA DISTRIBUTION OF GOOD SHOTS...........................................39 1. The Polya Distribution ......................................................................40 ix 2. Implementing the Polya Distribution in the Hughes Salvo Model...................................................................................................42 3. Effects of a Polya Distribution of Shots with no Information Advantage ...........................................................................................42 4. Effects of a Polya Distribution of Shots with Blue Force Information Advantage .....................................................................45
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