EASTLEIGH BOROUGH COUNCIL RETAIL AND LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT 2017 FINAL REPORT July 2017 One Chapel Place, London, W1G 0BG CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 PLANNING POLICY REVIEW 3 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK (NPPF) 3 CHANGES TO PERMITTED DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS 5 LOCAL PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT 5 SUMMARY 8 3 RETAIL AND TOWN CENTRE TRENDS 9 RETAIL TRENDS 9 SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING AND INTERNET SHOPPING 10 FLOORSPACE ‘PRODUCTIVITY’ GROWTH 12 IMPACT OF OUT-OF-CENTRE RETAILING 12 CHANGING RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 13 VACANCY LEVELS 14 TRENDS IN RETAIL-LED INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 15 INDEPENDENTS AND MARKETS 16 SUMMARY 17 4 CATCHMENT AREA & SHOPPING PATTERNS 19 STUDY AREA AND ZONES 19 HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE INTERVIEW SURVEY & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 21 5 TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECKS: METHODOLOGY 27 6 EASTLEIGH TOWN CENTRE - HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 29 CONTEXT 29 RETAIL COMPOSITION & DIVERSITY OF USES 30 MULTIPLE AND INDEPENDENT RETAIL REPRESENTATION 34 MARKETS 34 VACANCIES 34 RETAILER DEMAND & REQUIREMENTS 35 PRIME ZONE A RENTS 35 ACCESSIBILITY & PEDESTRIAN FLOWS 36 CUSTOMER VIEWS AND PERCEPTIONS 38 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 39 OUT-OF-CENTRE PROVISION 40 NEW INVESTMENT & POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT 40 SUMMARY 40 7 HEDGE END DISTRICT CENTRE - HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 42 CONTEXT 42 RETAIL COMPOSITION & DIVERSITY OF USES 42 VACANCIES 44 RETAILER DEMAND 45 PRIME ZONE A RENTS 45 ACCESSIBILITY 45 CUSTOMER VIEWS AND PERCEPTIONS 45 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 47 OUT-OF-CENTRE PROVISION 47 SUMMARY 48 8 FRYERN CENTRE, CHANDLER’S FORD DISTRICT CENTRE - HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 50 i CONTEXT 50 RETAIL COMPOSITION & DIVERSITY OF USES 50 VACANCIES 53 RETAILER DEMAND & REQUIREMENTS 53 PRIME ZONE A RENTS 54 CUSTOMER VIEWS AND PERCEPTIONS 54 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 55 OUT-OF-CENTRE PROVISION 56 SUMMARY 56 9 AUDIT OF LOCAL CENTRES 57 10 ECONOMIC CAPACITY MODEL AND ASSUMPTIONS 60 METHODOLOGY 60 POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE FORECASTS 61 TURNOVER OF EXISTING CENTRES / STORES 62 PLANNED RETAIL FLOORSAPCE 63 11 RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 65 CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY 65 COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY 68 STRATEGIC GROWTH AREAS 70 SUMMARY 71 12 COMMERCIAL LEISURE NEED/ ‘GAP’ ASSESSMENT 73 LEISURE EXPENDITURE GROWTH 73 CINEMA NEED 75 EATING & DRINKING OUT 77 HEALTH & FITNESS 80 BINGO & GAMBLING 83 FAMILY ENTERTAINMENT 84 CULTURAL ACTIVITIES 85 SUMMARY 85 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS 87 CENTRE OVERVIEW 87 RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT 91 LEISURE NEEDS/GAP ASSESSMENT 93 MEETING NEEDS IN THE MAIN CENTRES 94 LOCAL IMPACT THRESHOLD: RECOMMENDATIONS 95 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SHOP FRONTAGES: RECOMMENDATIONS 97 CONCLUSIONS 98 GLOSSARY 99 APPENDIX 1: STUDY AREA 101 APPENDIX 2: CONVENIENCE GOODS - MARKET SHARES (incl SFT) 102 APPENDIX 3: COMPARISON GOODS - MARKET SHARES (incl SFT) 103 APPENDIX 4: POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE 104 APPENDIX 5: CONVENIENCE GOODS - FORECAST TURNOVER 105 APPENDIX 6: COMPARISON GOODS - FORECAST TURNOVER 106 ii APPENDIX 7: CONVENIENCE GOODS – CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 107 APPENDIX 8: COMPARISON GOODS – CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 108 APPENDIX 9: LEISURE ASSESSMENT 109 APPENDIX 10: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY METHODOLOGY & RESULTS (WEIGHTED) 110 iii 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Carter Jonas (CJ) was commissioned by Eastleigh Borough Council in November 2016 to prepare the ‘Eastleigh Borough Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment’ (EBRLNA 2017)’ to help inform both plan-making and development management. The findings of the study will specifically provide the robust evidence base required to help inform the preparation of the emerging local plan (2011-2036) and other relevant supplementary planning documents. 1.2 The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012. Where relevant the study also draws on advice set out in the National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG), published in March 2014, which places significant weight on the development of positive plan-led visions and strategies to help ensure the vitality of town centres. The sequential and impact ‘tests’ are also key to both plan-making and decision-taking at the local level. 1.3 The assessment of the need (or ‘capacity’) for new retail (convenience and comparison goods) floorspace has been carried out to help inform the likely scale, type, location and phasing of new retail development over the short (0-5 years), medium (6-10 years) and long term (11-15 years). 1.4 The study/catchment area defined for the purpose of the EBRLNA 2017 principally covers the Eastleigh Borough local authority area, but also extends to a wider area incorporating parts of neighbouring local planning authority areas. The Study Area (see Figure 4.1) has been divided into eleven zones that broadly reflect the population distribution and local catchments of the main study centres. 1.5 The defined Study Area and zones provide the framework for the new telephone interview survey of some 1,100 households conducted by NEMS Market Research (NEMS) in January 2017. The full (weighted) survey results are set out in Appendix 10. The survey provides the most up-to-date and robust evidence on shopping patterns, leisure preferences and expenditure flows within the Study Area. The survey findings have also informed the health check assessments for the main study centres, as well as the quantitative (‘capacity’) and qualitative need assessments for new retail (convenience and comparison goods) floorspace and leisure uses. 1.6 For ease of reference this report is structured as follows: . Section 2 reviews the national and local planning policy context material to retail planning and town centres. Section 3 highlights some of the key trends that are driving the dynamic changes in the retail sector at the national and local level, and how this has shaped (and is likely to shape) the UK’s urban and retail landscape. Section 4 sets out the results of the market share analysis for convenience and comparison goods shopping and leisure use across the Study Area based on the household telephone interview survey. The market share tabulations for convenience and comparison goods are set out in Appendix 2 and Appendix 3 respectively. Sections 5-9 set out the health check methodology and key findings for Eastleigh Town Centre and the District Centres of Hedge End and Chandlers Ford. These assessments draw on the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) identified by the Planning Practice Guidance, recent research and the latest town centre audits for the centres completed by the Council and supplemented by site visits. The health check assessment also takes account of the results of the household survey for the main centres. An overview of town centre uses is also provided for the Borough’s smaller centres. Section 10 sets out the key assumptions and outputs of CJ’s in-house CREATe (excel spreadsheet) capacity model, including: the forecast population and expenditure available in the study area (Appendix Page 1 4); the forecast convenience (Appendix 5) and comparison turnovers of all existing centres/stores; and the forecast trading characteristics of all known committed retail floorspace at the time of preparing this assessment (Appendix 6). Section 11 presents the detailed Borough-wide and main centre capacity forecasts for both convenience (Appendix 7) and comparison goods (Appendix 8). Section 12 sets out the findings of the commercial leisure and other town centre uses ‘gap’ assessment. This looks at the main leisure uses, including the need for new food and beverage uses, cinema and gyms. The supporting capacity tables used to inform the forecast need for new commercial leisure provision are set in Appendix 9. Finally, Section 13 provides high level advice on where any forecast need for new retail floorspace and leisure uses could be accommodated in Eastleigh Town Centre and the district centres, carried out in accordance with the main aims of national and local plan policy. 1.7 When considering and assessing the findings of this retail assessment it is important to understand at the outset that capacity forecasts beyond a five year time period should be interpreted with caution by the Borough Council as they are subject to increasing margins of error. This updated study provides the robust evidence base required to help inform plan-making, site allocations and the determination of planning applications at the local level. However, it is advised that forecasts should be constantly monitored and updated to take into account any significant new retail development and changes in the retail expenditure and population growth forecasts over time. This should include monitoring of any potential impacts arising from other key trends in the retail and leisure sectors (such as, the growth in internet shopping) and commercial leisure sectors. Page 2 2 PLANNING POLICY REVIEW 2.1 This section provides a high-level overview of the relevant national and local development plan planning policy pertaining to retail and town centre uses, along with other material considerations. NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK (NPPF) 2.2 The NPPF was published in March 2012 and sets out the planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. It reinforces the importance of up-to-date plans and strengthens local decision making. The NPPF must be taken into account in the preparation of Local Plans and Neighbourhood Plans. At the heart of the NPPF is a presumption in favour of sustainable development, which is seen as “a golden thread running through both plan-making and decision-taking” (paragraph 14). The NPPF (paragraph 14) sets out the Government’s view of what sustainable development means in practice for both plan-making and decision- taking at the local level. 2.3 For plan-making the Framework states that local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area. Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change, unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits.