ISSN 2543-9839 qr. 1. 2020 no. 12

THE WARSAW INSTITUTE REVIEW no. 12. 2020 www.warsawinstitute.review

Editorial

Dear Readers,

uring the preparation of the release of this issue – the first of The Warsaw Institute Review (WIR) of this year – we were still in what can be described as the “old” reality. We, like most, were doing our best to become aware of Dthe impending crisis and the global coronavirus pandemic, which has already changed and continues to change our optics of the world.

It would seem that having begun to reveal many underlaying difficulties and fragilities, almost all areas of life – political, social, and economic – require some recalibration. It is not an overstatement that even the most well-positioned and robust states, such as the US, Germany, and Australia, are seeing their economies strained, and sadly, people lost. However, we humans are relentless, and the difficult fight against the pandemic is only at its beginning, where the focus is still primarily on stopping the spread of infections from a medical angle.

We all know the following months will be a great test for both the current balance of power in the world and the stability of the global economy. The world stopped for a moment. However, the pre-existing geopolitical conundrums across the world did not. In what direction will these go when the dust settles after the first shock? We definitely look for answers to this key question in our quarterly.

And thus, I would like to cordially invite you to read the articles prepared by an excellent array of experts. The first that I would like to recommend is the work of Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, who in an interview describes the possible consequences of fighting the coronavirus for the European Union and the condition of international organizations in the world in the impending crisis. In a separate article devoted to the analysis of the French vision of Europe, the Professor contemplates to which extent the French vision of European integration can materialize after the United Kingdom’s departure and to which extent is Germany weakened internally. And in the text of Grzegorz Kuczyński, an expert on eastern policy of the Warsaw Institute think tank, we seek answers to questions about Russia's military alliance with China. In the context of the likely change in the balance of power in the international arena, the above analyses provide the basis for considering possible directions of change – all happening at once.

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In the article “Giants Built on the Fundamentals of Economic Patriotism” we touch on the topic of the doctrine of economic The patriotism, which assumes solidarity of consumers in purchasing Warsaw choices and enterprises with a focus on local capital. This trend is Institute being successfully developed in all developed economies of the world, Review as it means that the local economy has the opportunity to grow faster without cutting off the benefits of globalization. It is economic © Copyright 2020 patriotism that is particularly noticeable in times of economic crisis, The Warsaw Institute Review when countries minimize its negative effects through social solidarity. Warsaw, Poland

Ultimately, it is impossible to overlook one of Poland’s most important Editor-in-Chief recent successes, which was the victory in the arbitration of PLN 6 Izabela Wojtyczka [email protected] billion by the Polish gas champion against Russia’s Gazprom for gas Editing prices in the Yamal contract. Polish lawyers have proved that gas in the Alexander Wielgos years from 2014 to 2020 was sold to Poland at artificially inflated prices. Łukasz Biernacki Janusz Kowalski, former Vice President of PGNiG and incumbent Translations Aleksandra Tomaszewska Secretary of State in the Polish government, elaborated on the backstage Paulina Piłat developments of the whole endeavor.

In wishing you a pleasant read, with great sadness, we extend our Cover and Layout heartfelt to those most afflicted, including the tragedies befalling Katarzyna Dinwebel Jacek Kotela Italian, Spanish, or American societies. Together with the entire DTP and Printing Editorial Team, we would like to express our great support to all our www.sindruk.pl partners from all over the world who are currently struggling with coronavirus pandemic and its effects. We will get through this ordeal by helping one another together.

With the highest regards, Izabela Wojtyczka Publisher Editor-in-Chief The Warsaw Institute The Warsaw Institute Review Review Sp. z o.o. Świętokrzyska 18/410, 00-052 Warsaw, Poland www.warsawinstitute.review Co-financed by the Minister of [email protected] Culture and National Heritage from the Promotion of Culture Fund. The opinions given and the positions held in the materials published in the Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors and cannot be equated with the official position Partners: of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and Foundation based in Warsaw, Poland Foundation based in United States Ministry of Culture and National Heritage of the Republic of Poland. ISSN 2543-9839

www.warsawinstitute.org www.warsaw.institute

4 The Warsaw Institute Review Contents

S52ecurity Report geopolitics72 History105 Grzegorz Kuczyński: Dr. Bryce Wakefield: Daniel Pogorzelski: Russia-China: a limited The Indo-Pacific: Still Stanislav Szukalski: liability military alliance Under Construction The Human Riddle

Interview Geopolitics Izabela Wojtyczka Aleksander Ksawery Olech Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian The virus will change the EU, relations in times of crisis 6 but not how we might expect 64 in international alliances Interview Geopolitics Berenika Grabowska Dr. Bryce Wakefield Professor Arkady Rzegocki The Indo-Pacific: Still Under New chapter: Poland - UK relations 72 Construction 15 after Brexit Security Report Security Report Laurențiu Pachiu, George Scutaru Janusz Kowalski Energy and the Battle Poland wins in the Arbitration for the Black Sea with Gazprom over the price 82 20 of natural gas Security Report Witold Repetowicz European Union Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse Aggression or collective security: 28 The French Vision of Europe’s Future 88 HOPE, another face of Iran ECONOMY Central Eastern Europe Professor Piotr Bajda Editorial Team of the Warsaw The New Rules of the Central Institute Review 39 European Game Giants Built on the Fundamentals 97 of Economic Patriotism Disinformation Paweł Pawłowski History An Alternative History Created Daniel Pogorzelski 45 by the Kremlin 105 Stanislav Szukalski: The Human Riddle Security Report History Grzegorz Kuczyński Katarzyna Utracka Russia-China: a limited liability The Katyń Massacre – Mechanisms 52 military alliance 111 of Genocide

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The virus will change the EU, but not how we might expect Izabela Wojtyczka's interview with Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse The COVID-19 pandemic has reached all European Union countries, changing the landscape not only of individual countries and their economies, but also of the entire Community. Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, in an interview by Izabela Wojtyczka, Editor-in-Chief of The Warsaw Institute Review, elaborates on the fight against the virus in Europe, its economic effects, the condition of the EU, and ultimately, changes on the geopolitical chessboard.

6 The Warsaw Institute Review The virus will change the EU, but not how we might expect

German Minister of Finance Olaf Scholz and President of European © Olivier Hoslet (PAP/EPA) Central Bank Christine Lagarde during Eurogroup Finance Ministers' meeting in Brussels, Belgium, February 17, 2020.

Izabela Wojtyczka: For several In the next phase of the crisis, the EU weeks now, we all have been should focus on supporting the Member watching closely the European States facing the crisis. In part, this Union’s reaction to the SARS- has already begun taking shape. Most CoV-2 virus, which at present notably, the European Commission is still raging in Europe. How channelled financial means for vaccine do you assess the Community’s research, organised joint tenders for actions? medical equipment, made strides to Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse: European popularise good practices in combating institutions were busy with the migration the pandemic, as well as having loosened crisis on the Turkish-Greek border, while internal market and public procurement in the European Union the pandemic rules. Additionally, it sought to develop was developing at its most intensive rate. financial instruments to counter the For this reason, it would seem that the health crisis and the impending economic EU “missed” the first phase of the crisis, recession. All this should be listed on the allowing the Member States to act on plus side of the EU institutions’ actions their own. In general, it was not decisively undertaken. helping, but also it was not interrupting the national authorities, who are the most What is negative is the Commission’s responsible for tackling the crisis. The attempts to impose universal ways of only issue that ought to be definitely be exiting the crisis and to interfere in the assessed in a negative light is the European internal affairs of the Member States. Commission’s call to keep national borders On this occasion, it turned out – open when they should have been closed again – that the EU institutions are in order to limit the movement of people applying double standards in relation infected in the first phase of the pandemic. to Central European countries, where,

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European Union. Once we have dealt with the coronavirus Poles should understand situation, could we expect more rhetoric orbital that it is necessary to build around countries potentially considering to leave the their own strong state Community? Increasingly critical voices are coming even with strategic instruments from Germany, which speaks openly about the lack of of coordinating action solidarity in the face of such a serious pandemic... in order to effectively Not only Italians and Spaniards, but other nations of Southern Europe and respond to various crises Western Europe are also increasingly bitter and disappointed with European in the future. One should integration. In recent years, their countries have become the scene of successive not excessively rely on the crises in which, according to the majority EU for a disproportionate of Italians for example, the European Union abandoned them, or worse, even array of elements, because handicapped their efforts, rather than helping in overcoming their difficulties. this can only lead to Of course, a counter-argument could suggest that it is not farfetched to assume disappointment on all that the expectations of Italian society towards European integration are too sides. high. And this could help deduce a conclusion which Poland would do well for instance, some practices are being to draw from this observation. It is not a criticised in Hungary and not noticed solution to jump in head-first into the deep in France. Moreover, it would seem that end and speed up integration, through the European Commission has likely means such as entering the monetary abandoned in its entirety the ethos of union to state an example, and to do ‘apoliticality’ and impartiality. During the these with sole focus to get them done as crisis, it was even more distinctly subject soon as possible, rather than doing them to national influences, and even divided responsibly. Poles should understand internally according to national interests. that it is necessary to build their own An example attesting to this was the public strong state with strategic instruments of support for the idea of “corona bonds” by coordinating action in order to effectively the French and Italian commissioners, respond to various crises in the future. contrary to the official position of their One should not excessively rely on the German superior. EU for a disproportionate array of elements, because this can only lead to In some EU countries, disappointment on all sides. especially where the virus takes its heaviest toll, As such, in my opinion, it is necessary people talk about great to support actions of the EU which disappointment with the distinctly strengthen the EU’s subsidiarity

8 The Warsaw Institute Review The virus will change the EU, but not how we might expect

The President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen © John Thys (PAP/EPA) holds a press conference on the European Union response to the coronavirus COVID-19 and can be used by all Member States, we can see that Italians are especially those in the most need. But at already receiving “help” from the same time, it ought to be underlined Russia, and Hungarians are that Western European partners should cooperating with China. Which be more respectful of our interests and vision of the EU suffered the preferences with regard to European most due to the coronavirus integration, without coercively imposing pandemic? Is it possible to their specific visions of the EU on us. frequently find articles mentioning the weakness We have to be also prepared for further of Eurocrats? What is the problems and disintegration processes condition of the European in the western part of the continent. “superstate” today? Therefore, regional cooperation, i.e. Considering all these factors, one could within Central Europe, should be even argue that the European Union should more important for us than in any fundamentally change its integration other stage prior. We should present our model. Above all, it should certainly not position together to the partners from interfere in the competences of nation the western part of the EU, rather than states, e.g. under the pretext of protecting remaining declarative to each other, European values and the rule of law, and because then there is a chance that make a clear distinction when this is the we will be heard. case. Moreover, it should not interfere in the electoral policy of the member states, At the end of January this for example, by supporting the opposition year, French President against the legally elected authorities, i.e. Emanuel Macron called for a in effect, what could seem like actually European revival. Meanwhile, seeking to change the government if it

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example by blocking the establishment of EU taxes, as well as legal federalism by Another problem is the defending the prioritised legitimacy of the excessive centralisation national constitution over CJEU rulings. A period of crises should encourage of power in Brussels support for weaker states or those in trouble, but the price of assistance and Luxemburg, should not be the imposition of political conditions favourable to the stronger including the CJEU, states and difficult to accept for those in need. As a result, the concept of which is pushing solidarity is devalued and citizens are discouraged. In turn, the external forces the Union towards that benefit are those which aim to weaken European integration and even to lead a federation against to its total failure. But the integration leaders themselves are seemingly actually the opinion of many heading towards this failure because they European states and are guided almost exclusively by their own interests, treating other EU countries nations. as rivals or unruly children. has slightly different views on the EU You have already mentioned agenda from the EU bureaucrats or the the important role of nation strongest member states. The EU has been states in the first phase greatly appropriated by the particular of the crisis. Taking into interests of the largest countries, which account subsequent events, is visible in the preference for Macron or will European integration be Merkel’s proposals and blatantly ignoring overshadowed by the strategy most of the political ideas coming from of strong nation states? Or Warsaw. Another problem is the excessive perhaps might this be the case centralisation of power in Brussels and only in some areas of state Luxemburg, including the CJEU, which activity? is pushing the Union towards Answering this requires that I underline, a federation against the opinion of many as mentioned, that the main role in the EU European states and nations. is played by the largest states, which are primarily guided by their own national The EU should be a support, not interests. In a crisis, they are the most a substitute for the member responsible, especially with regard to states. financial programmes supporting the And the strongest in the EU should not use weaker EU members. In this way, they can the EU institutions and law to subordinate show solidarity and responsibility smaller states. Centralisation and for the future of integration. federalisation of the EU system enhance the asymmetry of interests between the The problem is not only that the resources largest and smaller states. Therefore, of even the richest countries are limited Poland should oppose the federalisation and taxpayers are reluctant to share their tendencies, both in the fiscal sphere, for own funds with other nations in a crisis.

10 The Warsaw Institute Review The virus will change the EU, but not how we might expect

The problem is that the economic crisis affects the monetary union, which is incomplete. Existing instruments Centralisation and may not be sufficient for this project to continue and additional redistributive federalisation of the instruments such as “corona bonds” may be a fiscal burden too heavy for the richest EU system enhance the countries, thus risking their credibility and the credibility of the monetary union asymmetry of interests as a whole. The monetary union is trapped and is a huge burden and risk to European between the largest and integration. smaller states. What kind of risk would that be? The monetary union forces the whose strategies are decided on outside federalisation and centralisation of the EU our borders, will behave. In the crisis, the system, as well as a ‘two-speed Europe’. public sector, which can provide jobs, will All this is very unfavourable for the Polish be particularly important, as well as state- state. On the other hand, the Eurozone owned and other domestic companies. is in a difficult situation and is actually The key is the government’s strategy for struggling to survive. For Poland, it is emerging from the crisis, which should be crucial to stay away from the problems of an opportunity to change the profile of the the monetary union as far as possible and, economy. at the same time, to demand from Western European countries to treat Poland and On the one hand, it is about laying other countries not belonging to the the foundations for strategic national Eurozone as partners and to respect their companies, perhaps controlled or at least subjectivity. with the participation of the state treasury, in sectors important for national security Today, when almost all EU – in its broadest sense, i.e. health, energy, economies are in effect technology, arms, etc. On the other hand, temporarily dormant, we are the crisis is an opportunity to change the almost certain that difficult profile of the economy towards services, years are coming, and that a especially electronic and high-tech based, recession-orientated crisis preferably in our national “intelligent” is approaching. What can we specialities. expect? What will Europe look like in the coming years? Which And on the geopolitical branches of the economy will chessboard – what reshuffling suffer most? What would be can we expect? How will the the scale of the crisis? seemingly weakened United Though analysts and institutions across States behave? And what about many spectrums are trying to figure this the existing alliances or out, there seems to be a general consensus political formats, such as the that there is unfortunately potential that Three Seas Initiative? the crisis can be painful and long-lasting. China will strive to benefit geopolitically It will affect everyone, but probably from the crisis whilst Russia and smaller companies will suffer the most. Western Europe will probably find their We do not know how foreign companies, positions de facto weakened. The crisis

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will not lead to the “spinal fracture” of the Americans. We must remember that they have high technology, one of the best medical laboratories and leading corporations in this sector. Therefore, they have the resources to find a cure for the virus relatively quickly even in the face of high mortality rates. The crisis may even strengthen Donald Trump’s strategy. First of all, it will force the US economy to become independent from China and its reindustrialisation. It will even partly fulfil the president’s hope of “separating” the US economy from China.

However, transatlantic relations may suffer in the crisis, but this would be a greater loss for Europe than for the US. In such a situation the Americans should not leave Europe, but rather confidently look for allies there. That is why I believe they can continue to support the Three Seas Initiative and closer integration within Central Europe. The interests of China in this region are exactly the same. Regardless of the policies of both powers, Poland’s interest is also to cooperate in this region. The crisis is an opportunity to show solidarity with our “brothers” and neighbours, both in dealing with the coronavirus and with European Commission not always justified allegations made headquarters in Brussels, by our partners from the western part Belgium, April 1, 2020. of the EU.

It can be read in various Polish and the EU strategy in sources that the communist relations with China? authorities in Beijing failed As many of us, I have no additional to inform the world about the knowledge about the origins of the virus which has been spreading epidemic to the already widely available in Wuhan since November 2019, information which shows that the concealed facts about the Chinese authorities neglected the threat and today, is “offering” threat and understated data about commercial “help” to the the victims. This could result from world. How would you comment the internal policy of the communist on China’s participation in party. However, it should also be noted the whole situation? What, in that China offered help to many EU your opinion, should be the countries, including Poland, and that

12 The Warsaw Institute Review © Olivier Hoslet (PAP/EPA) our government is buying medical to derive wealth and technology, but supplies from China. We should also certainly not to become dependent, remember that the Middle Kingdom is which threatens us at least in some already one of the greatest powers, and sectors. The second challenge is the its position is constantly growing. growing tension between the US, our Moreover, a possibility sometimes strategic ally, and the Middle Kingdom. overlooked, in specific circumstances, Finally, the last challenge is the growing it may also be a partner to Poland in the investment, migration and political situation of a possible threat from the involvement of China in Central Russian Federation. The challenge for Europe. We should consider how to Poland is to arrange economic relations solve the basic problems related to these with this giant which would be as three challenges with the benefit for beneficial as possible for our country, national interests. But I am far from

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interfering in China’s domestic policy, What will change irreversibly mainly because I expect exactly the in the EU landscape once the same from our EU allies. pandemic is contained? It is difficult to augur, but a pandemic Yet in February, when the will certainly lead to many tensions on virus was already spreading the international scene. All the hidden in Europe, the European problems, discords and grudges will likely Commission was also engaged, explode with new force. Therefore, it will except for the mentioned be a major challenge for the EU to protect migration policy, in a discussion itself from disintegration. Both in the about the rule of law in Poland. world and Europe, absent a clear change Was this concern right? How in trajectory, I expect diminishing some can this be explained? respect for international organisations In Poland, there is an ongoing discussion and international law. With this, one between governmental groups and the can also expect a tendency of individual opposition about judicial reform, and states and nations to seek security firstly whether it is compatible with the Polish on their own as it will no longer be Constitution. This problem cannot possible to fully trust either globalisation, and should not be resolved by the EU European institutions or even allies. institutions in any way. It is not within This may, paradoxically, strengthen those their competences to examine the states that would have previously had compliance of reforms in the Member trusted in overly liberal ideas and made States with the local constitution. themselves almost defenceless in the face The EU interferes in the reform, which of further crises. is essentially a competence of a Member State and gives rise to a sharp internal Countries will have to rebuild the dispute. Such external interference will infrastructure that is necessary in times always be risky – benign and desirable of crisis, such as border protection, health for part of society, and discouraging care, telecommunications, including the idea of integration for the others. postal services, etc. They will have to focus Especially in a nation like Poland, more on some hitherto neglected public which is over-sensitive with regard to policies, such as industry, health, but its own sovereignty because it has been also migration. The presence of the state taught by history that its neighbours in the economy will probably increase, have repeatedly used internal disputes especially in those sectors which play a of Poles for their own benefit. This is strategic role in security. The EU will have why thinkers who have been considering to adapt to these grassroots trends, or it integration projects in Europe since the will experience another crisis, this time 17th century have often stressed the iron caused by the disobedience of part of the principle – the sovereignty of individual Member States. This is why I believe that nations should be respected and their the solution for the EU in such a situation internal affairs should not be interfered is providing greater flexibility of action, with. This is what William Penn thought less centralised management and generally at the end of the 17th century, Abbot of greater freedom left to the Member States. Saint-Pierre, who proposed something The EU will probably have to abandon, at of a European Union in the early 18th least for a while, the vision of building a century. Immanuel Kant and many centralised super-state and adopt a more others also thought of integration in the subsidiary attitude towards nation states same way. and their democracies.

14 The Warsaw Institute Review New chapter: Poland - UK relations after Brexit Berenika Grabowska's interview with Ambassador Arkady Rzegocki Recent events may cause significant changes for the UK and for Polish-British relations. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic occurred just after the UK departed from the structures of the European Union. Due to brexit, Poles in the UK will have to face new challenges in the introduction of new legislation. A significant increase in the migration of Poles from the UK to Poland is also noticeable. At the same time, the UK remains an important foreign partner for Poland, which whom we share common interests and points of view on many international issues in the European and global dimension. We invite you to read the interview with the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Poland to the Court of St. James, Prof. Arkady Rzegocki.

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© Paweł Supernak (PAP) Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Poland to the Court of St. James's, Prof. Arkady Rzegocki during a meeting with the Polish community in London. London, Great Britain, December 20, 2018.

Berenika Grabowska: Last pandemic, our community is, of course, week, you expressed thanks still very active. Our lives have changed to Polish doctors and nurses considerably, but the precious qualities living in the British Isles and for which we are known and valued in working in the NHS (British this country – hard work, expertise, health service) for their openness and kindness – will always be involvement in the fight there. Just like during the normal times, against the coronavirus. now, in the times of crisis, Poles are This would suggest that contributing to the British society, Poles are still very active on economy and culture – it is just that they the British Isles. What is the are doing so from their homes. current situation of Poles after Brexit, both in general Currently, Poles who wish to remain in and in this context? the UK after Brexit need to apply for Arkady Rzegocki: All healthcare settled status – that has not changed. workers, carers and volunteers are They need to do so by the end of June making sure that we get the necessary 2021 if there is a Brexit with a deal, and help if and when we need it. Their by the end of 2020 if there is a no-deal sacrifice and selflessness deserve our Brexit. Until then, their rights will not utmost gratitude. Among them are change. At the start of 2021, a new thousands of Polish people, and the immigration system will come into whole of Poland is very proud of that force, which will require EU citizens to fact. They are great ambassadors of our hold settled or pre-settled status. country in the United Kingdom and As Polish Ambassador, I would like for represent the best there is in us Poles. Polish citizens to feel best at home and Despite the ongoing coronavirus so I encourage Poles to consider the

16 The Warsaw Institute Review New chapter: Poland - UK relations after Brexit

possibility of returning to Poland in the future, but this, of course, is each person’s individual choice. I want what’s Perspective of Britain’s best for my compatriots. Poles on Poland has The latest Clicktrans.pl report shows that 90% of changed substantially, migration between the UK and Poland in 2019 was moving to and they now see new Poland, while in 2015 it was only 55%. Can we expect that opportunities back home. when the current situation related to the coronavirus beginning this number was not pandemic is over, the trend of significant and Poles living in Poles returning from the UK to the UK for many years were not Poland will continue? aware of this obligation. The It is difficult to predict what is going to Polish Embassy in London has happen because we do not know how large been strongly committed to an impact the coronavirus pandemic is helping them. going to have on people’s lives. Certainly, Poles and all other EU citizens wishing to over the last three years we have been remain in the UK after Brexit need to observing a growing interest among our apply for settled status by downloading an nationals in the UK in returning to application on their phone or tablet Poland. Official British statistics confirm (technical requirements are available that this movement is taking place on a online), scanning their biometric passport large scale – according to them, around or biometric Polish identity card, and 150,000 Polish citizens have left the UK. following the process within the We are also regularly hearing anecdotal application. Currently, due to the evidence in our conversations with Polish coronavirus pandemic, there are delays in parishes, organisations and Saturday Home Office’s decisions on the schools which shows that the perspective applications. of Britain’s Poles on Poland has changed substantially, and they now see new Additionally, the applicants are asked not opportunities back home. I am glad to to send additional documents via post, hear this. which they had to do previously if asked by the system. The documents that had been The situation with the coronavirus has also sent before 25 March 2020 will be resulted in many Poles returning to considered and sent back, but there will be Poland, including around 14,000 onboard a delay. If the documents, were sent after the Lot do Domu repatriation flights 25 March 2020, they will be returned as organised in March and April by Poland’s soon as possible. The application is Ministry of Foreign Affairs and LOT connected to the HMRC and Department Polish Airlines. for Work and Pensions databases, so people who are employed, pay taxes as well What is the current process of as those using their pension should not applying for settled status by need to provide additional documents Poles? How many people have confirming that they reside in the UK. The submitted such an application ID document scanner locations, where so far? We know that at the applicants could also go with their

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have applied for the status, but, of course, we will not stop in our efforts to inform The unemployment about the need to apply for the status until every Polish citizen has done so. level is very low and our Can Poles expect any economy has grown restrictions after Brexit? Can their life on the Isles change uninterruptedly for nearly significantly? The lives of Poles living in the UK will not 30 years. change until the end of this year. As specified in the Withdrawal Agreement, documents and confirm their identity, has the rights of EU citizens living in the UK been temporarily suspended. Non- on 31 December 2020 who will have governmental organisations offering applied for settled status by then will be official assistance with the process are still protected. The British government has providing the service, though they have declared that tourists will also be able to limited their activity to mostly help lines visit the UK the same as now until then. and online services. It has also stated that the rights of EU citizens after Brexit will be protected, but The application can be made by those EU the negotiations on the final deal are still citizens who will have lived in the UK ongoing. From 2021, there is set to be a before 31 December 2020. It is the same new immigration system, which will limit for the extended family, but closer family the ability to come to the UK for work and can join the applicant after that date. study. People who have been living in the UK for five years (at least six months in each There are still many Poles year) are eligible for settled status, with in the UK who are hesitant those living here for a shorter period of to decide whether or not to time eligible for pre-settled status, which return to Poland and there are then allows them to apply for settled also many who have decided to status. stay and are still not sure if it was a right decision. If you met The latest data available shows that 639,200 one of them, what would you Polish nationals applied for settled status by advise him or her? February 2020. It is true that initially many As mentioned, it is each individual’s Poles were not aware that they had to apply choice, though if it is suitable to them and for the status or did not even know that they do feel best at home, I would like to such a scheme exists. This is why we have encourage considering a return to Poland. held a number of meetings with the Polish What I can say is that those who may be diaspora in numerous places across the UK unsure about the economic or job to raise this awareness, and in September prospects in Poland should not be worried, 2019 I wrote a letter addressed to all Poles in because the country has seen a remarkable the UK appealing for them to secure their transformation since it joined the EU. future status. The letter was met with The unemployment is very low and our widespread media coverage and the desired economy has grown uninterruptedly for effect in the form of a considerable uptake nearly 30 years. Despite the dangers of the in the number of applications, and now we coronavirus pandemic, Poland is well can say that the majority of Poles in the UK poised when it comes to mitigating the

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consequences of the crisis, also having partner for the EU in the future and that healthy levels of public and private debt. we can continue our strong financial, So if you wish to return to Poland, we are economic and scientific cooperation as waiting for you with open arms. well as our cooperation within NATO.

And, of course, Polish-British economic And what does it mean for relations are going from strength to Poland? What is the future of strength. Since 2005, Polish exports to the Polish-British relations? UK have tripled and UK exports to Poland Poland is sad that the UK has left the have doubled, with our trading European Union, but our bilateral relationship being worth £17 billion a year. relations, forged over hundreds of years Poles have now established more than and in the most difficult of times, will 60,000 businesses in Britain, while the UK remain unchanged. We want to keep is the sixth largest investor in Poland. strengthening our ties with the UK in all This means that Poles wishing to keep that currently implemented formats. The UK Polish-British connection can easily do so! remains an important foreign partner for Poland with whom we share common There is also the voice of the interests and a point of view on many new generation of Poles living international issues in the European and in the UK, it is no longer the global dimension. Frequent meetings of post-migration generation of the Prime Ministers of our two countries the Polish community, but often as well as Ministers are the best proof of people who were already born this. The most important meeting in the UK. One can see that they formats include the annual have not forgotten about their intergovernmental consultations, the family history and often return meetings of ministers of foreign affairs to Poland, building a Polish- and defence – the so-called Quadriqa British understanding. What consultations – and the civic society would you say about them? Belvedere Forum, which is a non- I am proud of them and am grateful for governmental platform for Poles and their attitude. It is important that, just like Brits from all walks of life, including their parents and grandparents, they scientists, businesspeople and students, nurture the Polish spirit in the UK and to meet, discuss issues and exchange then build upon our historically strong ideas. Our science and cultural relations relations for the good of our nations. mean that Poland is becoming better They are the future, so we are counting on known in the UK all the time. Our them being true ambassadors of Poland. military relations have also been flourishing, recognising Poland’s Coming back to Brexit – what military importance in the world as the could be the role of Great Eastern flank of NATO, with 150 British Britain after Brexit? Does troops stationed there, and Poland and leaving the European Union Britain signing a bilateral defence treaty mean greater or lesser in 2017 (it is only the second such treaty involvement of Great Britain in that the UK had signed with a European world affairs? Union country). With all those formats The United Kingdom is an important in place as well as our partnership partner for the European Union, and an within NATO, I am sure Polish-British important player on the international relations will remain strong in the arena. We hope that it can remain a key future.

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Poland wins in the Arbitration with Gazprom over the price of natural gas Janusz Kowalski PGNiG, a gas champion overseen by the Polish Government, has won USD 1.5 billion in the arbitration in Stockholm. This is arguably one of the most remarkable victories in an international dispute for liberated Poland in over 30 years.

n 30 March 2020, Polskie In February 2016, as Vice President of Górnictwo Naftowe the PGNiG Management Board, I was i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) responsible for facilitating legal services Spółka Akcyjna announced to the company, as well as the initiation of Othe favourable outcome in the the dispute with Gazprom, coming to the international arbitration with Gazprom. decisions to file a suit together with the PGNiG’s victory is a great success Management Board. As such, it is difficult of the Polish gas champion, having not to have regard for this success with effectually handled the dispute over gas a personal angle, having assembled the prices included in the Yamal Contract team of lawyers that won this 4-year-long in the Arbitral Tribunal in Stockholm. legal dispute with a Russian tycoon.

20 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland wins in the Arbitration with Gazprom over the price of natural gas

© Private archive Janusz Kowalski, in 2016 Vice-President of the PGNiG Management Board

The final judgement of the Stockholm the Yamal Contract in November 2012. Arbitral Tribunal confirms the validity Eventually, despite the initiation of of PGNiG’s stance – that since 2014, gas the arbitration proceedings, no ruling had been being sold to Poland at a non- was made. Therefore, there was no market and inflated price. Consequently, precedent on the grounds of the Yamal the Arbitral Tribunal changed the price Contract from which to follow. Moreover, formula. The ruling does genuinely prove PGNiG’s victory in March 2020 may that during the years from 2014 to 2020, be considered as a meaningful success Russians were deliberately selling gas to that acutely confirms the legitimacy Poland at artificially inflated prices. of the actions taken by the Polish Government with regard to pursuing Terms of PGNiG’s legal dispute diversification of natural gas supplies with Gazprom to Poland. Experience indicates that This is the first arbitration proceeding Russia’s Gazprom has repeatedly used its in the dispute between PGNiG and dominant position to impose solutions Gazprom which actually concluded that were disproportionately detrimental with a ruling. The previous arbitration to Polish national interests, harmful to proceedings initiated by the company the well-being of the economy and the in November 2011 did not result in a supply security for gas consumers, as well verdict but in an agreement between as contradictory to the provisions of both the parties which signed an annexe to Polish and EU law.

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As a consequence of the Arbitral that the price was calculated according Tribunal’s ruling, the price formula to a completely archaic formula, based under which PGNiG purchased gas largely on the price of crude oil – from Gazprom was changed. The a commodity behaving entirely different change is retroactive to the first day of to gas as the crude oil market is more November 2014. The new price formula mature and wholly unalike to the gas under which PGNiG is buying gas from market. The judgment of the Stockholm Gazprom is effective since the day of the Arbitral Tribunal to a considerable judgement, i.e. 30 March of this year. extent tied the new price to the market Therefore, PGNiG is already buying gas quotations for natural gas on the from Gazprom at the new price. Trading European energy market. This means conditions of the state-controlled gas that the new price will follow gas prices company changed overnight. to a much greater extent, rather than oil prices that are completely detached from As a result of the implementation of them and subject to different conditions. the formula by the Tribunal’s ruling, retroactive to 2014, it is necessary to settle The arduous, 4-year long arbitration the difference between the price paid procedure has also had a significant by PGNiG and the price which should impact on prices. PGNiG filed a lawsuit have been paid since 2014. The Company in February 2016, the preliminary pointed that the settlement resulting judgment determining the ruling – from the final judgment of the Arbitral a statement that PGNiG had the right to Tribunal indicates that the difference to demand a price change and that the old be reimbursed by Gazprom to PGNiG price was incorrect – was issued by the amounts to approximately USD 1.5 Tribunal after more than two years of billion, i.e. approximately PLN 6.2 billion proceedings, in June 2018, with the final for the period from 1 November 2014 judgment arriving at the end of March to 29 February 2020. 2020. Meanwhile, the parties to the Yamal Contract may apply for a change Natural gas price in gas price every three years. Inasmuch, the sums show the extent It is worth recalling that PGNiG reserved to which how much the price at such a possibility during the arbitration which Gazprom was selling gas to proceedings and in November 2017 it the Polish PGNiG company had been filed another request for renegotiation of inflated. It can be estimated that each the contract price. Gazprom did likewise. month of arbitration proceedings cost Therefore, there is a possibility to further PGNiG about PLN 80-100 million of change the gas price in the Yamal overpayment1. To put it another way, Contract in the future. This time, with Gazprom, at the expense of PGNiG, effect from November 2017. Whether gained about PLN 1-1.2 billion of this will happen is uncertain. The first overpayment every year. Such huge thing to do now is to assess how the amounts affected PGNiG’s revenues, new formula established by the Arbitral which was of considerable importance Tribunal in the light of the Yamal as at the same time the company was Contract relates to the price conditions selling gas at market prices to domestic in 2017. The results of this assessment consumers. It also resulted from the fact will give rise either to a further requests for changes in the contract price, or will 1 1.5 billion USD / 65 months [overpayment period] lead to the conclusion that there are no = 23,076,923 million USD / month) grounds for such actions.

22 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland wins in the Arbitration with Gazprom over the price of natural gas

A natural gas drilling rigs in Przemyśl, Poland, June 17, 2019. © Darek Delmanowicz (PAP)

Therefore, PGNiG faces a number of formal charges concerning irregularities challenges related to the execution of of arbitration proceedings. In practice, the Yamal Contract and this situation such complaints are considered extremely may continue until the end of its term, rarely. i.e. the end of 2022. This results from the nature and history of the contract With regard to the case discussed, this and the fact that Gazprom is a difficult happened with the preliminary judgment business partner, if it is possible to be of June 20182 which Gazprom finally considered a business partner at all decided to appeal. It is likely that the rather than simply a power structure same scenario may be applied to the final solely carrying out the Kremlin’s orders. judgment. However, the appeal itself does not suspend the implementation of the Gazprom’s charge against the judgment. In any case, the chances of judgement success of such a complaint, even if based It can be expected that the judgments of on statistics, should be assessed as rather the Arbitral Tribunal will be appealed unlikely. In general, less than a few by Gazprom to the Court of Appeal percent of arbitral court judgments are in Stockholm, such as the preliminary overruled. Positive conclusions in this judgement of June 2018. Although respect can be drawn from the already judgments of the Arbitral Tribunals completed cases, in which Gazprom has are final and enforceable, according to demanded the reversal of the arbitration the relevant regulations, they may be courts’ judgements. appealed to common courts. These are extraordinary remedies; in this case, the so-called petition for the reversal of 2 PGNiG Raporty bieżące, Raport bieżący nr 48/2018, PGNiG, 02.10.2018, link: http://pgnig. an award of a court of arbitration. They pl/relacje-inwestorskie/raporty-gieldowe/biezace/-/ may be brought only on the basis of reports/details/raport-biezacy- nr-48-2018

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PGNIG headquarter, Warsaw, Poland.

In November 2019, the Swedish decided, amongst others, that they would court rejected Gazprom’s complaint withdraw all claims against each other against the ruling of the Stockholm from the courts and arbitration courts. Arbitral Tribunal, which annulled the Russians’ claims for USD 80 billion However, the judgment issued prior from Ukraine for undelivered gas. In to this agreement by the Stockholm this case, Gazprom appealed against Court of Appeal in November, which the arbitration to the Swedish Court of was unfavourable to Gazprom, is open Appeal, claiming that the arbitration and available in English on the Court’s included mistakes and exceeded its website. It shows that Gazprom’s jurisdiction. The Stockholm Court of complaint was unfounded4. It seems that Appeal disregarded Gazprom’s claims. the complaint was rather an element of When the judgement was delivered, Gazprom’s broader position, which did Executive Officer of Naftogaz Yuriy not voluntarily implement the Arbitral Vitrenko remarked “A total victory! Tribunal’s ruling. Nota bene, this raises Ukraine wins again! We won the the question about the real effectiveness appeal on Gazprom’s first complaint of the obligations imposed on Gazprom against the decision of the arbitration in by the European Commission in the Stockholm”3. Unfortunately, probably case of abuse of a dominant position by due to the agreement concluded in Gazprom5. Part of the obligations aimed December between Naftogaz and at preventing Gazprom from inflating Gazprom, we will not know how the next prices was Gazprom’s commitment to two similar court proceedings before introduce an effective review mechanism the Court of Appeal in Sweden would be 4 Svea hovrätt, Arbitral award in a dispute finalised. Towards the end of December regarding supply of natural gas remains unchanged, 2019, Gazprom and Naftogaz concluded Sveriges Domstolar, link: https://www.domstol. se/nyheter/2019/11/arbitral-award-in-a-dispute- an irrevocable agreement to settle their regarding-supply-of-natural-gas-remains- claims. Under the agreement, it was unchanged/ 5 European Commission Antitrust/Cartel Cases, 3 Andrzej Kublik, Ukraina znów wygrała 39816 Upstream gas supplies in Central and Eastern z Gazpromem, Euractiv, 27.11.2019, link: https:// Europe, European Commission, link: https:// www.euractiv.pl/section/energia-i-srodowisko/news/ ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/case_details. ukraina-znow-wygrala-z-gazpromem/ cfm?proc_code=1_39816

24 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland wins in the Arbitration with Gazprom over the price of natural gas of prices based on arbitrage into its the European Commission is willing and contracts with customers. The possible capable of imposing considerably heavy failure to comply with the arbitration penalties, such as a recent fine of EUR 4.3 judgement may, therefore, translate into billion on Google for forcing manufacturers the assessment of Gazprom’s compliance to install the company’s programmes, in with its commitments. exchange for access to the app store and free use of the Android system8. Meanwhile, In May 2018, the European Commission in the case against Gazprom, which was closed the anti-trust proceedings against charged with very serious allegations, Gazprom that had lasted for nearly 7 the European Commission considered years6. As it was written in the press at it appropriate to issue the so-called that time, ‘in May, the EC announced “commitment decision”. In practice, this a decision which finally approved the means that Gazprom’s request to conclude settlement with Gazprom on the abuse the proceedings without any sanctions of its position in Central and Eastern has been accepted. Albeit no two cases are Europe. Thus, the Russian company identical, this would make it seem that it avoided penalties for monopolistic is not necessary to compare the scale of practices’. Indeed, the European both cases. Hence the lack of rationality Commission’s proceedings ended for of the sentences imposed; a penalty for Gazprom unbelievably mildly. extorting access to an Internet shop PGNiG raised objections against such. compared with relatively no penalties in The company appealed against the matters concerning strategic raw material decision to the Court of Justice of the and the world market. The actions of European Union in November 2018, the European Commission in Google’s stating that the judgement was in case were completely inadequate to the contradiction to collected evidence violations of law committed by Gazprom. and a number of procedural provisions After all, this decision was a consequence of of the EU law were breached7. the European Commission’s objections to Gazprom’s monopolistic practices. There is no doubt that the obligations The Commission’s preliminary assessment imposed on Gazprom were inadequate to included in this document stated, among the damage caused to Central European others: violation of the EU competition markets, including Poland. At the time, law and implementation of the strategy PGNiG stressed, as evidenced by the of dividing gas markets along the borders current ruling of the Arbitral Tribunal, of Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, that Gazprom overstated gas prices for its Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and customers in Central and Eastern Europe. Hungary. The European Commission’s gentleness in treating Gazprom may be described Consequently, it is really difficult to as surprising. In cases against IT giants, understand the obligations included in the European Commission Decision 6 Antitrust Procedure, CASE AT.39816 – Upstream (presented a contrario) differently than gas supplies in Central and Eastern Europe, the fact that Gazprom “promises” not European Commission, 25.05.2018, link: https:// ec.europa.eu/competition/antitrust/cases/dec_ docs/39816/39816_10148_3.pdf 8 Adam Turek, Google to nie wszystko. Największe 7 Krzysztof Strzępka, PAP: {PGNiG złożyło kary antymonopolowe dla technologicznych gigantów skargę na decyzję KE ws. praktyk Gazpromu, PAP, w historii UE, Business Insider, 19.07.2018, link: 16.10.2018, link: https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/ https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/zarzadzanie/ news%2C341323%2Czrodlo-pap-pgnig-zlozylo- kary-antymonopolowe-od-komisji-europejskiej- skarge-na-decyzje-ke-ws-praktyk-gazpromu.html google-to-nie-wszystko/6z9216z

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Gazprom headquarter, Moscow, Russia. © Sergiei Ilnitsky (PAP/EPA)

26 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland wins in the Arbitration with Gazprom over the price of natural gas to do what it used to do, i.e. to abuse its manifestation of Gazprom’s abuse of its dominant position. Since the Decision dominant position on the EU market orders Gazprom, for example, to remove against the EU anti-trust regulations. all restrictions on the cross-border resale of gas imposed on its customers, it means This complex relationship with the that those restrictions existed in the first Eastern gas supplier is not only an place, which should not have. Further, individual arbitration dispute over price. since the Decision orders Gazprom to A far broader perspective is needed. allow the free flow of gas to those parts of In 2016, I created the PGNiG’s legal Central and Eastern Europe which, due team, inspired by the actions of the late to the lack of interconnections, are still Professor Lech Kaczyński, who, during isolated from the other Member States, the years from 2002 to 2005, as the Mayor namely the Baltic States and Bulgaria, and of Warsaw, created an excellent team of this in itself asserts that Gazprom had lawyers capable of effectually winning been preventing the free flow of gas right international disputes. As Vice President up until then. The European Commission’s of PGNiG, I decided to restructure the decision orders Gazprom to ‘end the use company’s legal services at once. of the dominant position in gas supply: the non-enforcement of the benefits The architects of the legal victory in the connected with the gas infrastructure by four-year arbitration with Gazprom, Gazprom, which it could have obtained i.e. the leaders of the in-house Polish from its customers through its position in legal team, were: legal adviser Dariusz the gas supply market’9. This, a contrario, Hryniów, a graduate of the Faculty underlines that this dominance has so far of Law and Administration at the been inappropriately used, in particular, University of Opole who currently serves by using Gazprom’s position e.g. as Director of the Legal Department to derive illegitimate benefits at PGNiG; as well as attorney Tobiasz in the gas infrastructure. Szychowski, a graduate of the Faculty of Law and Administration at the Relations between PGNiG and University of Łódź, a specialist in Gazprom litigation and arbitration disputes, The contract between Gazprom and currently serving as Deputy Director the Polish company PGNiG is valid of the Legal Department at PGNiG. until the end of 2022 and is expected These lawyers also worked on the case of to be executed in accordance with the OPAL gas pipeline. This is another the current form of the contract, as proceeding of PGNIG in which I had amended by an arbitration court ruling. the honour of being involved in at the Failure to respect the contract may be turn of October and November 2016, assessed, among others, by the European when, as the PGNiG Management Board, Commission in terms of compliance with we decided to join, through a German the obligations imposed on Gazprom PGNiG subsidiary, to Poland’s appeal by the Commission. It also seems that against the European Commission’s if this happens, it should be assessed in decision to the Court of Justice of the two ways – as a breach of the existing European Union, which had concluded obligations and as another tort – the in a favourable judgment of the General Court of the European Union in 2019. 9 Aktualności: Przedstawicielstwo KE w Polsce, KE zobowiązuje Gazprom, European Commission, 24.05.2018, link: https://ec.europa.eu/poland/news/ Janusz Kowalski ke-zobowi%C4%85zuje-gazprom_pl March 2020

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The French Vision of Europe’s Future Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, Professor The UK's exit from the EU has become a strategic opportunity for the French elite to push their own vision of European integration. Another call for the political offensive is the weakness of Germany, which is currently facing problems in its own backyard. Further difficulties, including the growing divergence between Paris and Berlin and resistance from some other EU Member States, seem to even inspire Emmanuel Macron to take increasingly unconventional action. All of this provokes fundamental questions. Will the French plans for EU recalibration succeed, and will they be good for Europe?

28 The Warsaw Institute Review China’s President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron © Roman Pilipey (PAP/EPA) inspect an honor guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People on January 9, 2018 in Beijing, China

Method à la Trump Macron’s method fully resembles that Macron is trying to of Donald Trump. It involves taking unilateral actions, not reckoning with provoke change in the EU, allies, breaking procedures and customs, and finally putting the interests of his own but his unconventional country first. Macron is trying to provoke change in the EU, but his unconventional actions, instead of healing actions, instead of healing the EU, could the EU, could cause even cause even more trouble. more trouble. Macron routinely refers to European interests. He often mentions the need to part. Many commentators pointed out build “European sovereignty”. In practice, that the French President had no formal however, there are often particular French mandate to represent the EU in these interests behind these popular ideas. talks1. Macron also settled with the During the French President’s visit to Chinese leader that the EU Aviation Safety Shanghai in 2019, he repeatedly mentioned Agency and the Chinese administration European interests – for example – in a would agree to grant the relevant conversation with President Xi Jinping, certificates to allow the Italian-French an agreement between the EU and the company ATR to export aircraft to the PRC on the protection of trademarks for about one hundred European food 1 R. Momtaz, Macron, Europe’s wannabe president, Politico, 10 November 2019, https://www.politico.eu/ products was being finalized. Of these, article/emmanuel-macron-europe-president-china- French goods accounted for the largest trade/ [27.12.2019].

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the French tax on US internet companies was a unilateral action by Paris and not an The new European agreed policy within the entire EU. In this way, he ignored not only EU procedures Commission is seen as a but also the different approach of many European countries both to tax policy and success for Paris. to transatlantic relations.

Chinese market. Not only does this violate In the summer of 2019, Macron stated the procedures of the EU, but it shows during a meeting with Vladimir Macron’s growing ambition to control the Putin that the EU should overcome EU administration. Furthermore, the new “misunderstandings” with Russia, which is European Commission is seen as a success after all “deeply European”, and seek a new for Paris. Many experts have concluded that order from Lisbon to Vladivostok3. This this will strengthen this capital’s influence has raised the question in many capitals: on bureaucrats in Brussels and Luxemburg. who gave this Frenchman the mandate However, the visit to Shanghai proves that to negotiate a new strategic architecture it is not enough for the French President to in Europe? Even more confusion was lead the EU from the back seat, and that he caused by his interview, in which he said is now ready to take the wheel. that NATO was experiencing “brain death”4. He also questioned whether the There are many other examples of how the allied obligations of NATO were still French policy-makers approach European valid. Among those outraged at these institutions. The latter constitute now, statements were German politicians, and in a way, an extension of French foreign Angela Merkel herself distanced herself off policy, especially when they, or their from these statements. Annegret Kramp- representatives, defend the interests of Karrenbauer, her protégé to the Chancellor’s this country in external relations. In 2019, seat, said that this was a manifestation of the French Parliament passed legislation French aspirations for strategic autonomy imposing a 3% tax on the revenues of from the US and an attempt to replace large tech companies such as Google, NATO with the EU’s defense policy5. Amazon, Facebook, and Apple in France. Another factor is Macron’s unilateral In response, the US threatened to hit decisions that block consensus within all back with punitive duties imposed on countries. An example is that he blocked certain French goods imported into the the start of EU accession negotiations with US. In the face of the Franco-American Northern Macedonia and Albania. trade dispute, Paris decided to involve the EU institutions in the protection of 3 J. Nixey, M. Boulègue, On Russia, Macron Is its interests. Bruno Le Maire, the Finance Mistaken, Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Minister of France, has threatened International Affairs, 5 September 2019, https:// www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/russia- that retaliatory EU sanctions would be macron-mistaken [27.12.2019]. imposed if the Americans do not withdraw 4 Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO from their plans to impose punitive duties is becoming brain-dead, 7 November 2019, 2 The Economist, https://www.economist.com/ on France . Indeed, Le Maire considered europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns- that the attack on France was an attack europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead [27.12.2019]. on the entire EU, even though imposing 5 M. Heikkilä, German defense minister hits back at Macron’s NATO criticism, Politico, 17.11.2019, 2 D. Keohane, Ch. Giles, J. Politi, Europe will hit back https://www.politico.eu/article/annegret-kramp- if Trump punishes France for tax on Big Tech, warns karrenbauer-emmanuel-macron-german-defense- Paris, Financial Times, 6 January 2020, p. 1. minister-hits-back-nato-criticism/ [27.12.2019].

30 The Warsaw Institute Review The French Vision of Europe’s Future

The Macron method is based on self- attributing pro-European intentions and denying them to his opponents. At the In recent years the same time, it relies on isolating them. In the case of Poland, which in many Franco-German instances has a different approach to European integration, accusations are “motor” has clearly made of authoritarian governance and violations of the rule of law. In addition, failed and more and Macron is weakening the cohesion of Central Europe by trying to get some of more disputes appear the countries in the region to support his policies – wherever possible. This was between French and the case during his tour in 2017 when he promoted the directive concerning the German visions of the posting of workers. It was then that Poland – the biggest opponent of the directive – future of the EU. was purposely avoided. directions. In 2019, this was the case, Until now, the Franco-German alliance amongst others, with the negotiations has been the “engine” for progress in on the conditions for the UK’s exit from European integration. It succeeded in the EU, trade policy towards the US, the implementing many initiatives that were issue of further EU enlargement to the not always approved by the other members countries of the Western Balkans, and of the Community, but the political geopolitical rapprochement with Russia. power of the two largest Member States It seems that Paris is seeking to end the was, sooner or later, overcoming the economic domination of Berlin, which resistance of those dissatisfied. This way of has increasingly translated into German functioning of EU integration has become political influence in Europe. This was one of the reasons why the British elites particularly the case during the Eurozone decided to leave the EU. It was difficult for crisis when Germany’s economic and the British to accept a situation in which, financial power translated into having despite their political potential, they could the greatest influence in deciding on how not steamroll their own preferences in to solve the crisis. France is, therefore, European politics, and, what is worse, trying to rebuild its geopolitical position in they were often forced to accept Franco- regard to Germany through a diplomatic German solutions. offensive, which includes a whole series of ideas on how to heal the EU and trying Interestingly, in recent years the Franco- to dominate the European agenda at the German “motor” has clearly failed and geopolitical and geo-economic level. This more and more disputes appear between is why German politicians suspect that French and German visions of the future Macron is seeking to replace the German of the EU. This, in effect, makes Macron economic leadership with the French one reach for unconventional ways of acting in foreign and security policy6. and, more and more often, surprise the Germans when he was trying to 6 M. Rahman, France is back, but where is Germany? unilaterally shape the European agenda. Politico, 27.11.2019, https://www.politico.eu/article/ france-germany-foreign-relations-emmanuel- In this way, French President tries to force macron-angela-merkel-power-imbalance-eu/ his partners to approve of his own political [27.12.2019].

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Emmanuel Macron holds a press conference at the end of the European Council summit in Brussels, Belgium, December 13, 2019. closer to Moscow. The condition for this Geopolitical change fundamental change is the arrangement The mentioned objectives of the of relations between Ukraine and Russia. French President are best reflected in While peace on the EU’s Eastern Flank is his numerous activities in the field of desirable, it will probably be happening international politics. This is linked to a largely on Putin’s terms. Regionalization strategic change that he would like to apply of Ukraine and elections in the eastern to Europe. The aim is to move the EU away part of the country were considered. from the US, and at the same time shift it This would not only sanction Russian

32 The Warsaw Institute Review The French Vision of Europe’s Future

President of Ukraine. He told an American newspaper that Kyiv should return to Russia’s sphere of influence, as it can count neither on joining the EU nor NATO7. This may mean that the Kremlin is getting closer and closer to achieving the most important objectives of its aggressive policy – above all, to stop the expansion of the West in its own sphere of influence. The same trend is visible in stopping the EU’s enlargement to the Western Balkans. It is not surprising, therefore, that the Russian Permanent Representative to the EU reacted with satisfaction to the fact that France stopped this process8.

It is worth recalling that the French ambitions also concern autonomy towards the US, including limiting American influence in the Old Continent, as well as stimulating integration processes in a direction allowing Paris to effectively influence the EU, and even control political processes in Europe. The post-war history of Western Europe is a significant example of this. After the end of World War II, this part of the continent was under the profound influence of the US. The instrument of this influence, in the opinion of the French elite, was largely NATO. That is why the French demanded that the US agree on the most important decisions of the Alliance with France. They even expected that tripartite mechanisms (between the US, France, and the UK) would be created, which would hammer out policies not only concerning NATO, but © Julien Warnand (PAP/EPA) also all other key global issues9.

7 A. Troianovski, A Ukrainian Billionaire Fought Russia. Now He’s Ready to Embrace It, The New York influence in Donbas but would probably Times, 13 November 2019, https://www.nytimes. give Putin a veto on Ukraine’s European com/2019/11/13/world/europe/ukraine-ihor- or transatlantic ambitions. In such an kolomoisky-russia.html [27.12.2019]. 8 M. Peel, S. Fleming, Russian envoy praises arrangement, Russia’s annexation of Macron stance on EU enlargement, Financial Crimea might also be silently accepted. Times, 17 November 2019, https://www.ft.com/ content/14629414-0577-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e7dd [27.12.2019]. What is significant in this situation is the 9 T.A. Sayle, Enduring Alliance. A History of NATO recent statement by Ihor Kolomoisky, an and the Postwar Global Order, Cornell University oligarch who has promoted the current Press, Ithaca – London 2019, pp. 55-61.

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of Central European countries, to the sale of European armaments, and, if possible, France's dream of make it more difficult to sell armaments 12 creating a separate, from outside the EU, mainly from the US . Macron is a defender of a multipolar order, and, at the same time, which he understands as distancing himself effective European ‘pole’ from Washington and seeking agreement with Moscow and Beijing. During his visit in international politics to Shanghai, new WTO regulations were the subject of talks with President Xi – is too ambitious when again against US policy. The escalation of the EU’s trade war with the United States confronted with real may accelerate achieving objectives of Paris, but it is doubtful that this will be of opportunities. any benefit to Europe. Even if the US has French politicians even suggested a difficulty in holding back the geo-economic geographical division of the spheres of expansion of China, it will be all the more influence within this triumvirate (or the difficult for a lonely Europe – unless new version of “concert of powers”), in Macron is once again satisfied with making which France was to get the West Europe, a deal on the terms dictated by its rival. the UK – the Commonwealth, and the US – the Pacific10. Since it was difficult The actual strength of Europe on a to get Americans to realize such a vision, global scale is best demonstrated by the Charles de Gaulle decided to focus his failure of some EU countries to conclude efforts on building European integration an agreement with Iran to stop the with the central position of France, while development of nuclear weapons. at the same time treating integration as the The 2015 agreement with Iran, called the main instrument for increasing strategic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was autonomy towards Washington and intended to bring about two basic goals for NATO11. the three European signatories, i.e. France, the United Kingdom, and Germany The main driver of this vision in recent (the so-called E3). The first goal was to years has been the development of the EU’s rigorously constrain Tehran’s nuclear defense policy. It is supposed to support the agenda, which has not been achieved – geopolitical plans of Paris – mainly related especially after the US left this agreement. to the autonomy towards the US – but, in Iran has been systematically withdrawing practice, also forcing the reconstruction of from its commitments in this respect, and relations with Russia. In addition, the EU European countries have neither reached defense policy has very important economic for sanctions nor had any other idea of objectives. The latter concern support for getting the Iranians to respect their own the industrial and technological base in the commitments13. EU, especially the largest arms industry 12 More details in T.G. Grosse, Development of corporations in Western Europe. Defence Policy and Armaments Industry in the At the same time, the policy of the EU is to European Union. Geo-Economic Analysis, Warsaw open up the entire EU internal market, also Institute Special Report, Warsaw, 10 December 2018. 13 N. Bozorgmehr, M. Peel, Teheran pulls back further from nuclear agreement commitments, Financial 10 Ibidem, p. 72. Times, 6.11.2019, p. 2; M. Karnitschnig, Iran takes 11 Ibidem, p. 121. Europe hostage on nukes, Politico, 21 November

34 The Warsaw Institute Review The French Vision of Europe’s Future

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Foreign © Omer Messinger (PAP) Minister Heiko Maas and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, Germany, January 19, 2020

The second objective was to provide if it has the support of the US. Macron’s economic benefits from the agreement strategic autonomy and his concept of with Iran for European companies. multipolarity serve Europe little, and what In the situation of the tightening of they do instead is that they undermine US sanctions imposed on Tehran, the transatlantic ties. What is more, as a result, implementation of the discussed goal they indirectly support the geopolitical turned out to be impossible, even when ambitions of Moscow and Beijing. European countries launched a special purpose vehicle (INSTEX), which was French protectionism supposed to circumvent sanctions The French president aims to structurally imposed by Washington. reorganize the internal market. This idea is modeled on the solutions of The failure of all these efforts has clearly state capitalism existing in France, and shown that the position of the three largest thus can be very beneficial for economic Member States (with the participation of entities originating from that country14. the EU) does not create sufficient critical This reorganization includes a number mass at the international level, especially of elements, ranging from the introduction when acting separately or even against of a transfer union in the Eurozone US policy. This may suggest that France’s dream of creating a separate, and, at the 14 V. Schmidt, Varieties of Capitalism: a distinctly same time, effective European ‘pole’ in French model? [in:] R. Elgie, E. Grossman, A.G. international politics is too ambitious Mazur (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of French Politics, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2016, pp. when confronted with real opportunities. 606-635, V. Schmidt, French capitalism transformed, Europe can be effective, but mostly only yet still a third variety of capitalism, Economy and Society, 2003, 32:4, pp. 526-554; B. Clift, C. Woll, Economic patriotism: reinventing control over open 2019, https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-europe- markets, Journal of European Public Policy, 2012, relationship-nuclear-weapons-protests/ [27.12.2019]. vol. 19(3), pp. 307-323.

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to the harmonization of taxes and social French politicians also want to promote standards in the EU. Among other things, European champions, primarily French politicians intend to introduce a understood as French-capital companies. minimum wage and a minimum basic It is worth recalling that the new position income at EU level15. In this way, they of the “super-commissioner” (who will intend to improve the competitiveness be responsible for the internal market, of French undertakings in the internal industrial policy, defense, space, and market and, at the same time, to make digital technologies) will be held by a enterprises from less regulated countries trusted colleague of the French President or countries with lower production costs – Thierry Breton. It is the same person less competitive. to whom Macron, who then worked as a Rothschild’s banker, was advising in 2010 In his famous speech at the University on the acquisition of a part of a German of Sorbonne in 2017, Macron presented company, Siemens, by Breton-led company the main objectives for the reform of Atos. It is also said that later Macron was the Eurozone16. He supported the idea the instigator, and certainly the advocate of a budget and a finance minister for of the merger of French Alstom and the Eurozone, to increase structural Siemens. Smaller countries such as the investment and boost economic growth. Benelux, the Nordic countries and Spain He concluded that the budget of the are opposed to his concept of ‘champions’ Eurozone should come primarily from and the departure from the principles of European taxes (and, as a result, be competition policy. independent of the influence of the largest potential payer – Germany). Macron also aims to open up the single What is more, French experts also add market to a higher extent to products, to that the need to set up common services, and investments of European Eurozone bonds (the so-called safe haven champions, while at the same time assets), which could provide security for limiting access to this market to external the growing public debt in the monetary competitors. This applies, among others, to union and increase public investment17. Internet and arms industry corporations All these proposals aim at creating a – mainly American ones. The aim of transfer union and potentially increase French politicians is, therefore, to restrict chances of public debt – which would access to the internal market for major be beneficial for France and its southern external competitors, both in terms of European allies. However, it would be public procurement in the EU or other risky for German and Dutch politicians opportunities to sell products, but also to demanding greater fiscal discipline and make investments in the EU, for instance stabilization of the banking sector by acquiring European companies. In the in the monetary union. latter case, it mainly concerns the Chinese competitors18. 15 V. Mallet, French Europe minister backs integration drive, Financial Times, 1 August 2019, p. 2. Ideologized climate 16 Initiative pour l’Europe – Discours d’Emmanuel President Macron’s industrial policy is Macron pour une Europe souveraine, unie, démocratique, 26 September 2017, Paris, http:// directly linked to his ambitious climate www.elysee.fr/declarations/article/initiative-pour- policy – which, at the same time, is the l-europe-discours-d-emmanuel-macron-pour-une- flagship objective of the new European europe-souveraine-unie-democratique/ [30.09.2017]. 17 J. Pisani-Ferry, The EU should take a bigger role 18 J. Espinoza, S. Fleming, Vestager eyes curbs on in the provision of public goods, Financial Times, 4 state-backed companies outside bloc, Financial Times, December 2019, p. 13. 17 December 2019, p. 3.

36 The Warsaw Institute Review The French Vision of Europe’s Future

Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen – the achievement of climate policy goals which announced the introduction of the from the ambitious agenda. However, the European Green Deal. The goal of French French President is opposed to this and politicians is to make an actual industrial expects all countries to adhere to costly revolution based on a radical shift to low climate objectives20. He intends to outvote or even zero-carbon technologies. This possible opponents as part of decision- approach can translate into a huge scale making procedures in intergovernmental of investments in the EU by stimulating institutions. economic growth, and benefiting, above all, countries and companies with proper For these reasons, the objectives of the green technologies. The reason is that they French policy create tensions between have the potential to contribute to earning EU countries and may also turn out to a lot of money by selling them both within be disappointing in terms of stimulating and outside the EU. Besides, the idea is growth in the European economy. for the EU to put pressure on non-EU Nevertheless, President Macron strongly countries to apply climate standards supports this direction of change in similar to those of the internal market, Europe. It seems that the explanation for for instance, through the imposition of his determination is primarily politics. punitive tariffs or applicable provisions in Many voters in Western Europe have trade agreements with external partners. increasingly strong views willing to counteract climate change. It is, therefore, However, the effectiveness of these an electoral theme that could possibly intentions may turn out to be stop Eurosceptic tendencies in this part disappointing. This is primarily because of the EU and, therefore, restore them to the EU’s largest trading partners, such pro-European ideas. This is what the left- as China and the US, which are also the wing groups, in particular, are counting biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, can on, as they have made support for ecology effectively avoid political pressure from and climate one of the most important the EU. If punitive duties are imposed, campaign slogans. All these calculations they can strike back imposing retaliatory can only be made if climate change does tariffs on other services or goods – which not lead to too strong an increase in will certainly hit European exports19. energy prices and if it does not reduce the In this way, an ambitious climate competitiveness of the European economy. transformation in the EU could worsen Otherwise, in the eyes of Europeans, it will the competitiveness of production in be proof of yet another fiasco of EU policy. many sectors of the EU economy, to the detriment of rivals, particularly the US Concentration of power and China. The EU’s climate policy also France has for years sought to concentrate causes strong tensions in Europe, as it power in the center of the European generates disproportionate costs – for Communities (later in the EU), preferably instance in Central Europe, especially in in the Eurozone. This has been promoted Poland, where coal and natural gas are the under either “a two-speed Europe” or primary sources of generating electricity. “a concentric circles Europe” slogan. For this reason, the Polish authorities The main idea behind all this is to ensure have asked their EU partners to provide more financial assistance or to exclude 20 Macron grozi Polsce! Chodzi o „neutralność klimatyczną, W Polityce.pl, 13 December 2019, https://wpolityce.pl/swiat/477593-macron- 19 A. Beattie, Protect the planet or EU business? grozi-polsce-chodzi-o-neutralnosc-klimatyczna Financial Times, 12 December 2019, p. 7. [27.12.2019].

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that France has more influence on the military presence in Europe22. However, EU. However, an important effect of this it may also lead to a weakening of the EU’s strategy is increasing the asymmetry in defense policy, as it builds cooperation European policies, that is strengthening structures outside the EU, including with the role of the western part of the EU and the UK, a country that has just left the EU. weakening its eastern part. One example of the practical implementation of this This example shows that not all forms of vision are nominations for top positions in cooperation between the selected group the European institutions in 2019, where of countries in Europe can strengthen there was no room for representatives European integration, especially when of Central Europe. Another example is they are created – even if only temporarily the nomination of committee chairs in – outside EU structures. Such actions most the European Parliament after the 2019 often cause divisions between the Member elections. Of the twenty-two committees, States, which, if they concern strategic only in two of them chairs from Central issues, may prove to be considerably more Europe were appointed. Meanwhile, the enduring, or even permanent. While Germans filled five, and the French four they may meet the ambitions of leaders positions. in this form of cooperation, they may not necessarily strengthen European The influence of Paris on EU policies integration and the EU’s cohesion in the is also increased through two other face of major international challenges. mechanisms. French experts encourage widening the scope of majority voting in Conclusions intergovernmental institutions, which they The aim of Macron’s diplomatic offensive believe could improve the governance of the since 2017 has been to fundamentally EU21. This way of proceeding significantly converse integration processes. increases the influence of the largest This change is being forced by his Member States on EU policies. Another unconventional methods of operation. idea is introducing new solutions only by It is intended to change the strategic the countries approving of it. This was the architecture in Europe, introduce a new case with the French idea of the European economic system in the internal market, Intervention Initiative. It was established and deepen the asymmetry of governance outside EU structures although, at the in the EU. Under the banner of creating same time, another cooperation of some “European sovereignty”, Paris is pushing countries in the same area of defense for solutions in line with its own interests. policy, Permanent Structured Cooperation However, there are many doubts as (PESCO), was established as part of the to whether the French proposals are EU. Nevertheless, France wanted to beneficial for the whole of Europe, launch more ambitious ideas for military and even whether they are advantageous cooperation (paving the way for a European for the European integration itself. What is army) than those envisaged by PESCO. certain is that they cause controversy Moreover, Paris has been taking a leading and dispute in a crisis-weary EU. role in the European Intervention Initiative from the outset and can thus have more Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse influence on its direction and use. This March, 2020 initiative is regarded as yet another idea of weakening NATO and the American 22 J. Dempsey, Macron’s Call for European Boots, 13 November 2018, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieeurope.eu/ 21 J. Pisani-Ferry, op. cit.; V. Mallet, op. cit. strategiceurope/77703 [27.12.2019].

38 The Warsaw Institute Review The New Rules of the Central European Game Piotr Bajda, Professor

esides the threat of a parties in Germany, the problems with coronavirus pandemic, it is CDU’s leadership, and the constant wave hard not to get the impression of anti-government protests in France that Central Europe is is that neither Berlin nor Paris are as Bbecoming an increasingly important interested in Central Europe as they region in the power struggle of the used to be. world’s most influential countries. It is not surprising that the U.S., Russia, In this situation, the activity of other and China are trying to use every countries interested in the region is not opportunity to strengthen their position surprising – as this is probably how recent in various countries of the region. events should be interpreted. The most However, what may come as a surprise important signal was the declaration of to certain observers is the relative U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who, inaction of the biggest European actors in mid-February this year, declared his in this struggle. It is clear that Paris and readiness to allocate one billion dollars Berlin are focusing first and foremost to energy projects implemented in the on managing issues in the European countries of the Three Seas Initiative. Union, especially the ones connected A similar statement was given by U.S. with negotiations concerning the E.U.’s Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette, new multiannual financial framework. who confirmed at the annual Munich Furthermore, both German Chancellor conference that the U.S. is ready to block Angela Merkel and French President the Nord Stream 2 project with effective Emmanuel Macron have to deal with sanctions. These two voices demonstrate internal crises in their respective Washington’s determination to join the countries. The result of the increasingly Central European market. Washington worsening poll results of the governing has correctly noticed that there is a strong

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The summit of Three Seas Initiative countries © visegradpost.com in Warsaw, Poland, July 6, 2017

determination of decision-makers from in Bucharest in 2018, and Ljubljana in many Central European countries to free 2019. Their character was, above all, themselves from the dependence of energy political, and they provided Central supply from just one source – Russia. The European heads of states with the fight against the Russian monopoly has opportunity to meet each other. Now, been included in the energy strategies of following these summits, it is necessary not only Poland but also the Baltic States to move on to the implementation part of and Romania. the project to make sure it is successfully executed. The launch of the first funds Three Seas Initiative 2.0 and the initiation of even several All this creates a pleasant business projects will demonstrate the growing environment that gives new dynamics to importance of the Three Seas Initiative. projects, especially energy-related, planned This should be a clear signal, especially to be implemented under the Three Seas for hesitant countries, that the initiative Initiative. It should be emphasized that is not limited to meetings of presidents. building infrastructure connections in On the other hand, what is dangerous the North-South corridor and energy is that without specific infrastructure cooperation are examples of the pillars projects, the whole idea of the new form of this agreement. The first summits of of regional cooperation could turn into the Three Seas Initiative took place in annual meetings of politicians without Dubrovnik in 2016, in Warsaw in 2017, much influence on the decision-making

40 The Warsaw Institute Review The New Rules of the Central European Game processes – and this may result in its failure. There is no guarantee that each of the regional cooperation projects will be What is dangerous is a success – the best example of this is the history of the Central European Initiative. that without specific This project was launched in late 1989 with the intention to make it the main infrastructure projects, structure of Central Europe’s organization. the whole idea of the Today, hardly anyone can remember what its goals were, or where its official new form of regional headquarters were located. The Central European Initiative is a good cooperation could turn example of how difficult it is for such ideas to move from the theoretical to the into annual meetings practical level, and that the very creation of the secretariat, the establishment of of politicians without a formal institutional framework, and even a fixed budget do not yet guarantee much influence on success. The Three Seas Initiative is the decision-making closer to the organizational format of the Visegrád Group, which – although processes. established in 1991 – is still not a formalized international organization, but voices were heard from experts who an institutionalized regional agreement. pointed out that the Three Seas Initiative However, the Visegrád Group is today the project was imprecise and understated, most recognizable regional organization especially in comparison with the well- in Central Europe. The informal nature functioning Visegrád Group. It was the of this cooperation has one serious visit of the President of the United States difficulty – it must continuously prove to Poland in the summer of 2017 and his its usefulness, constantly mobilizing its unequivocal support for the new Central members to be active and cooperate. This European cooperation project that is definitely easier with a small coalition of determined the stability of the initiative. stakeholders – such as the four Visegrád Exclusively for the President of the United countries – but it is much more difficult States, the meeting place for Central with twelve countries – sometimes as far European leaders was changed from apart as Estonia and Slovenia. Wrocław to Warsaw. Only the Business Forum was organized in the capital of The U.S. in, China out Poland’s Lower Silesia – initially intended The U.S. already gave its support for the to host the most important event. In this project before, when President Donald context, the abovementioned Pompeo’s Trump came to Warsaw in 2017 for the declaration could be seen as a signal of Three Seas Initiative meeting. After the a need to reverse retreatment from the first conference in Dubrovnik, at which Three Seas Initiative. In a situation where the presidents or their representatives only half of the countries participating launched the informal initiative of twelve in the project declared their interest in countries, not all invited countries joining the financial mechanism of the shared the same enthusiasm for the Three Seas Initiative Fund established new proposal for regional cooperation. in 2018, and only four of them formally After this inaugural summit, numerous implemented it (Poland, Romania,

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The meeting of V4 Prime Ministers, Prague, © Leszek Szymański (PAP) Czech Republic, March 4, 2020

the Czech Republic, Latvia), such a strong in September 2019 by the Visegrád signal of support from the USA, the Group countries and the stock exchanges informal patron of the entire initiative, of Croatia, Romania, and Slovenia. was more than welcome. Of course, Predominantly, it is an excellent form of this does not mean that American promotion of the best companies in the financial involvement is charitable. region, the shares of which are offered to Firstly, Pompeo’s offer concerns only investors, and additionally, it strengthens investments in the energy sector, not in their position on the market against the infrastructure projects (especially roads largest international giants. The intention and railways) and digitalization plans behind the Three Seas Fund and the (which are essential for the process of common stock exchange is to make catching up the innovative distance to them solve the region’s most significant Western Europe). However, this does not problem – the lack of investment capital change the fact that the possible transfer needed to launch infrastructure projects, of American funds to energy projects will both included in the list of joint actions allow local capital to be transferred to of the Three Seas Initiative, and those other areas. of strategic importance for individual countries of the region. This does not Another element that could increase the mean, however, that such activities aim importance of Central Europe is the joint- to build an alternative to the European stock exchange CCE+ index launched Union – they are instead supposed to be

42 The Warsaw Institute Review The New Rules of the Central European Game complementary to it. Being aware of the financial consequences associated with the exit of the United Kingdom from The intention behind the European Union, it is evident that the future E.U. budget will be smaller the Three Seas Fund than the previous one. In addition, the shift of emphasis to the E.U.’s climate or and the common stock migration policy, and now the anti-crisis policy in response to the uncontrolled exchange is to make pandemic, means that strategic infrastructure projects in Central Europe them solve the region's may lack funds from cohesion funds most significant problem or other projects. Individual Central European countries have made great – the lack of investment efforts to catch up with the founding E.U. members after joining the European capital. Union – following difficult times they went through as part of the Eastern Bloc. This process is still unfinished, and if peripheral and support more modern it stops, it may delay the alignment not industrial centers in the West. only of living standards but above all of the development opportunities in The greatest threat to these plans at the respective E.U. countries. Without a moment is the coronavirus pandemic. substantial modernization “boom,” some Today (the text was written in March sort of new Marshall Plan for the region, 2020), it is not known what the global necessary to develop its infrastructure, consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic communication, or digital standards, will be. On the one hand, the current Central Europe’s economy may remain situation has strongly damaged China’s

Gas compressor station in Denmark

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© Rafał Guz (PAP) Piotr Naimski, Government Plenipotentiary for Strategic Energy Infrastructure during the Baltic Pipe signature ceremony in Warsaw, Poland, August 14, 2019. image as a modern and attractive the intended plans and to guarantee its business and political partner. If more development. It is difficult to predict information about ignoring the threat, today how the whole European Union, hiding the actual scale of the pandemic, and especially its institutions such as the or lack of cooperation in providing European Parliament and the European information to European partners Commission – already criticized for spread to the public, people’s belief in dealing with irrelevant issues and lack the positive impact of cooperation with of appropriate reaction in their areas of Chinese partners will be undermined. competence – will deal with the crisis. From the perspective of the authorities of The coronavirus pandemic will change particular countries, it will be hazardous the whole world, including the European in the new situation to postulate the Union and the Central European region. deepening of cooperation with China, It will be crucial for the Three Seas especially in ICT or investing in critical Initiative to maintain its willingness infrastructure. On the other hand, the to continue cooperation in the present impact of coronavirus on the economy is format and to obtain real support from currently unpredictable. It may turn out its external partners – first and foremost, that instead of international cooperation, from American investors wanting to it will cause isolationism, which will strengthen their position on the energy freeze various forms of cooperation in resources market in this part of Europe. the existing formats. The unpredictability of the situation is also the greatest fear that paralyzes potential investors needed Piotr Bajda by Central Europe to implement all March 2020

44 The Warsaw Institute Review “Who controls the past controls the future.” George Orwell, 1984

An Alternative History Created by the Kremlin Paweł Pawłowski History is one of the areas in which Moscow is applying its ‘active measures’ to undermine the unity of NATO and the EU, as well as to weaken the countries which are clearly opposing Russia's aggressive policy in Central and Eastern Europe. This time, thanks to the effective actions of the Polish government, the narrative proposed by the Kremlin has not gained the approval of the international community. However, it is necessary to develop mechanisms that will allow for a more effective response to similar attempts to rewrite history.

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Russia's President, Vladimir Putin

Putin’s deliberate lies absurdly and openly blamed Poland for Although almost 75 years have passed the start of World War II – the bloodiest since the end of World War II, this conflict in history. subject still cannot be definitively closed. On the one hand, Poland still bears Just before Christmas, on December the consequences of the overwhelming 23, 2019, Vladimir Putin, in his speech losses suffered during the war itself during a meeting with officials in Russia’s and under the rule of the communists Ministry of Defense unexpectedly sent from Moscow after the war. On attacked Józef Lipski, Poland’s pre-war the other hand, however, Poland is Ambassador to the Third Reich. He painfully affected by accusations against accused the diplomat of parleying with it coming from various directions. Unjust Hitler to solve the Jewish question and accusations against Poland for its alleged called him “a bastard and an anti-Semitic involvement in the Shoah could be heard pig”. To support his opinion, President from prominent Israeli politicians and Putin presented an allegedly secret note public figures. Recently, these individual from 1938, which can be found in the voices have been joined by a slanderous Russian archives among many documents choir conducted by the Kremlin, which pillaged from the entire former Soviet

46 The Warsaw Institute Review An Alternative History Created by the Kremlin

The same Ambassador Lipski was actively involved in supporting thousands of Polish Jews, who were expelled by the Third Reich in 1938. Accusing him of anti- Semitism based on a sentence taken out of context is an example of particularly vile manipulation.

Semitism based on a sentence taken out of context is an example of particularly vile manipulation. © Sputnik/East News However, this was not the first time that sphere of influence. The verbal attack on the Russian President said such things. Ambassador Lipski blatantly omitted A few days earlier, he accused Poland of the facts and was deprived of the context partition of Czechoslovakia and justified of his actions. As indicated in the the entry of the Red Army into the Second announcement of the Union of Jewish Polish Republic in September 1939. Religious Communities in Poland with This allegation was the first of a whole series the Chief Rabbi of Poland, Vladimir Putin of statements made by Russian politicians indulged in exceptionally scandalous and public figures, in which attempts manipulation. Józef Lipski was trying to were made to unjustly attribute to Poland implement Poland’s policy of supporting the co-responsibility for the outbreak of the emigration of the 10% Jewish minority, World War II and cooperation with Hitler. also in agreement with the Zionist These deliberations even went egregiously movement, which received secret military further – an example of which was even support from the Polish government. The that Yevgeny Satanovsky, one of the most same Ambassador Lipski was actively famous political scientists in Russia, praised involved in supporting thousands of Polish Stalin’s decision to murder 22 thousand Jews, who were expelled by the Third Polish officers who were in Soviet captivity Reich in 1938. Accusing him of anti- after the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939.

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Andrzej Duda was not allowed to speak at the ceremony, and, as a result, refused to The statement of the take part in it, was widely commented on. Finally, no new accusations against Poland Polish Prime Minister were made during the event. It does not mean, however, that Poland can feel Mateusz Morawiecki was relieved now and consider this problem as imperative, in which he solved. The inconvenient truth about referred in strong words the role of the USSR in World War II to the “deliberate lies” of The myth of the Great‘ Patriotic War’ plays an enormous role in contemporary Russia. the Russian President. Among the disasters, ubiquitous economic and structural problems, the history of The Russian disinformation offensive the victory over Hitler is a crucial factor in in the domain of politics of history was uniting the Russians around a shared legacy confronted with a strong and effective paid for with the blood of millions. Myth response from the Polish government. is useful primarily at a national level, but Apart from the official announcements it is also a useful tool in foreign policy. The of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the memory of the joint victory over the Third statement of the Polish Prime Minister Reich may give the Western leaders the false Mateusz Morawiecki was imperative, in impression that cooperation with Russia is which he referred in strong words to the possible and can actually be beneficial. “deliberate lies” of the Russian President. The words of the Polish Prime Minister However, the truth about the role of the received much attention around the world, USSR in World War II is not as glorious as reaching billions of recipients. the Kremlin’s ruler would have liked. The Such institutions as the European Hitler-Stalin Pact, signed by Ribbentrop Parliament and the European Commission and Molotov, was the leading cause of the have condemned Russia’s attempts to outbreak of the most significant conflict in rewrite history. The US Ambassador to human history, which claimed the lives of Poland, HE Georgette Mosbacher, also as many as 27 million citizens in the USSR published a widely commented entry in alone. The aggression against Poland, the which she reminded that the real initiators occupation of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, of World War II were Hitler and Stalin. and Bessarabia, as well as the Winter War in Finland ultimately mirror the Third Contrary to what was feared, Vladimir Reich’s activities in Norway, Denmark, Putin did not continue his accusations France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the during the celebration of the 75th Balkans, and the Atlantic. The consensual anniversary of the liberation of the cooperation of the two totalitarian regimes Auschwitz-Birkenau, German Nazi contrasts drastically with the current concentration camp, which was organized narrative in Russia. at the Yad Vashem Institute by Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, known for his close The truth about the Red Army’s soldiers’ relations with the Russian President. attitude towards the “homeland of Poland observed the event with great the proletariat” does not fit into the concern. The fact that the Polish President Kremlin’s history either. The Soviet Union

48 The Warsaw Institute Review An Alternative History Created by the Kremlin

Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak during © Leszek Szymański (PAP) the opening of the NATO expert conference on strategic communication, Warsaw, Poland, September 25, 2019 was such a dreadful place that its citizens could hardly believe that a worse fate was possible. They were wrong because the Numerous cases of Germans did everything to outbid Stalin and his companions. However, before building welcome gates this became clear, by December 1941, 2.5 million Soviet prisoners of war were and celebrating by taken prisoner in Germany. Some of them even willingly gave away their weapons civilians of Wehrmacht because they did not intend to defend units entering the USSR “communist paradise.” Numerous cases of building welcome gates and celebrating were observed. by civilians of Wehrmacht units entering the USSR were observed. These are also Army is at odds with the heroic vision, the stories that today’s Kremlin is trying still very much alive in the consciousness to hide because they do not fit the stories of contemporary Russians. The rapes, of the war of men and united resistance murders, and pillaging, which marked against the invader. the route of the Red march, made a daunting impression on all the “liberated” A similarly authentic image of the nations. It was only a prelude to almost “liberation” of Central Europe by the Red half a century of slavery and terror, which

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People's Commissar Wiaczesław Mołotow (on the right) © NAC and Reich Minister of Foreign Affairs Joachim von Ribbentrop (in the center), 1940

execution sites where the Gestapo did The contrast between before them, best illustrates the nature of the myth of the Red this “liberation”. The contrast between the myth of the Army's heroic victory Red Army’s heroic victory over fascist Germany and the real causes and over fascist Germany course of World War II is a problem for Russia, especially in the year of the and the real causes and 75th anniversary of this conflict. The Kremlin wants to take advantage of this course of World War II opportunity to integrate society as far as its own goals are concerned and improve is a problem for Russia, declining moods. Russia’s worsening economic situation only reinforces this especially in the year of need. The traditional victory parade the 75th anniversary of in Red Square is an opportunity for President Putin to present himself as this conflict. one of the world’s key political leaders. This is a vital context for the propaganda claimed hundreds of thousands of victims. attack on Poland, which was undoubtedly The fact that the NKVD and the auxiliary also meant to prepare the ground and formations kept their victims in the same neutralize in advance of a narrative in

50 The Warsaw Institute Review An Alternative History Created by the Kremlin opposition to the Russian one. Fortunately, same time, Poland is being treated with a the result of the Kremlin’s actions has so visible distance by many Western leaders, far been the opposite, and the reaction especially within the EU. For this reason, of the international community was Warsaw seems to be a convenient target for unequivocal. attack, as it can count on a weaker reaction from its allies. In this case, however, Moscow’s real intentions the Kremlin’s forecasts turned out to be There is, however, another side to the wrong – the response was decisive and Russian offensive of historical propaganda, involved not only the leaders of the states pointed out by Professor Sławomir but also the EU institutions. Nevertheless, Cenckiewicz and Dr Bolesław Piasecki1 this was another opportunity for Russia – it is an example of the use of active to undermine unity and create divisions measures to violate the foundations within structures, which has been the goal of Polish security. The disinformation of its secret services since Lenin. campaign carrying an exceptionally strong emotional charge for the Polish society is To sum up, history plays a unique role aimed at undermining the international in the contemporary position of Poland. position and internal stability of Poland. Although Moscow’s last offensive was The intention of engaging Poland in not successful, we should be aware yet another big conflict is to create the that Russia will make similar attempts impression of a rogue state obsessed with in the future, likely to be accordingly Russia in the historical and contemporary adjusted from its deductions of this most context. The issues of internal conflicts recent undertaking. Therefore, Poland in Poland cannot be overlooked either. should work on being more prepared in The Russian provocations are another the future. Reliable, honest, and non- opportunity to build new disputes ideologized historical research is of crucial and mutual accusations of intelligence importance here because it provides connections with Moscow. The last attack unquestionable arguments. Russia has was also an excellent opportunity to test worryingly mastered the techniques of the reaction mechanisms in a special information warfare and is a demanding holiday period. After all, tests are a adversary, and its lies may concern issues permanent element of the activities of the that until now seemed unmistakable secret services of each state. and unquestionable to us. The presented example, however, shows that Poland is not Poland was a carefully selected target. It is defenseless and can effectively respond to a country openly opposing the aggressive hostile disinformation. The firm reaction policy of Russia in the region and loudly of the Polish government and its activity speaking about the real role of the USSR in the major media around the world in World War II. The Three Seas Initiative, reminded the public who was responsible energy diversification, tightening of for the hecatomb of World War II. What cooperation with the US in the region, particularly deserves attention is the and dynamic arrangements to strengthen unified reaction of the allied states within the eastern flank of NATO – these are NATO and the EU, which have clearly actions that do not incite particular supported Poland. As such, what will enthusiasm in Moscow, where precisely be the next goal of Russia’s information the opposite direction is desirable. At the warfare?

1 S. Cenckiewicz, B. Piasecki, Rosja chce chaosu. Tylko prawda historyczna nas przed nią obroni, Plus Paweł Pawłowski Minus, January 17, 2020. March 2020

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Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance Grzegorz Kuczyński Over the last few decades, Moscow and Beijing have strengthened their military relationship. This partnership, however, should not be described as a traditional alliance. China particularly avoids this kind of wording. After all, this cooperation is based not on collective visions, but rather on shared fears. It is hard to resist the impression that the only factor bringing the two countries closer is their common enemy.

What brings Russia and China together long run, a factor influencing Beijing’s is mainly their rivalry with the United cooperation with Moscow. States. There is, however, a significant difference between the two in their Of the two countries, Moscow is more perspective in this race. Russia is interested in tightening their cooperation competing at political and military levels or even building a Sino-Russian alliance. and China – primarily in economics and A weakening Russia sees its partnership trade. This difference becomes, in the with Beijing as a solution against

52 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance

Russia's President Vladimir Putin with China's President Xi Jinping © Greg Baker (PAP/EPA) during a welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, June 8, 2018.

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© www.setsco.org Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Qingdao city, China, June 10, 2018

Washington’s global domination. Russia Shortly before his death in 2017, Zbigniew began to speak out about forming a Brzeziński, a Polish-American diplomat partnership with Beijing shortly after it who served as a counselor to U.S. became clear that the reset policy towards President Johnson and President Jimmy the United States was coming to an end. Carter’s National Security Advisor, said that “analyzing threats to American Over the last three decades, Russia and interest, the most dangerous scenario China have significantly developed their would be a grand coalition of China and military cooperation (arms sales, joint Russia, united not by ideology, but by military exercises, among others). complementary grievances.”1. Beijing’s The advanced weapons provided cooperation with Moscow has not yet by Moscow have allowed China to reached that level. The armed forces of strengthen its air defense and anti- Russia and China are cooperating more ship defense. In particular, they have and more intensively, but any integration enhanced China’s capability to defend of their military potentials is still out of against the threat of foreign naval and air the question. The Sino-Russian agreements forces near its territory. Participation in in this area are, therefore, still far from joint exercises allows China to learn from Russian combat experiences gained in 1 John S. Van Oudenaren, America’s Nightmare: The Ukraine or Syria. Sino-Russian Entente, The National Interest, 12.01.2019

54 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance the alliance treaties that the U.S. has with Sergei Shoigu and his deputy Anatoly many countries in the world, including Antonov speaking of the joint fight the ones in Asia, not to mention such an against terrorism and ‘color revolutions’). advanced military alliance as NATO. For a considerably long time, however, this idea did not hit the fertile ground in Strategic partnership Beijing. China began to open up more to Nevertheless, today’s cooperation military cooperation with Russia only between the Russian Federation and after the relationship of the former with the People’s Republic of China is the the U.S. began to worsen after Donald most intense since the two countries Trump came to power. This also fits in signed their Treaty of Friendship in with the increasingly forceful, global 2001. Although Putin’s regime has never and expansive foreign policy pursued by treated China as its enemy, Moscow’s China’s President Xi Jinping. For many long-lasting priority originating in the years, this country’s military cooperation Yeltsin era was its cooperation with with Russia has boiled down to purchases the West. The situation changed when of Russian armaments and, more recently, Putin transformed its policy towards the increasingly intensive joint military West and made it confrontational, and exercises symbolized by the participation when the United States became aware of a large Chinese contingent in the of the perilously growing potential of strategic Russian military training China – already far beyond exclusively activities – Vostok-2018. economic issues. Although Putin made a turn towards Asia at the beginning In 2019, the cooperation between the two of his third term of office, Russia has countries reached the next stage. At the been actively promoting a “privileged end of July, the Russian A-50 airborne strategic partnership” with China since early warning and control (AEW&C) 2014. However, the actual cooperation aircraft flew twice into South Korean gained momentum after the two airspace over Dokdo islands controlled countries concluded a significant gas by South Korea and additionally claimed deal (‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline project). by Japan. Seoul and Tokyo sent fighters Moreover, Russia’s relationship with the against the intruders. South Korean pilots West deteriorated after its aggression fired hundreds of warning shots at the in Ukraine. China became Moscow’s Russian A-50. The most important thing top priority, and the former started to in this incident was, however, something form its Eurasian strategy – with Russia else – this reconnaissance aircraft being its crucial element. In addition to accompanied the Chinese and Russian access to cheap energy supplies, close ties bombers. The next day, after the first- China’s western, weaker neighbor, offer ever joint Sino-Russian airborne patrol, Beijing an opportunity to develop its China’s Ministry of Defense published investments and political influence in the a document entitled “China’s National region, and, above all, to strengthen its Defense in the New Era.” It reminds of position against the U.S.2. China’s principle of not entering into military alliances with any country in the Already in November 2014, Russia openly world, but also praises the development suggested to Beijing to form a military of military cooperation with Russia, alliance (with Russia’s Defense Minister which “enriches the strategic partnership between China and Russia in the new 2 Warsaw Institute Special Report, Chinese-Russian era by playing a significant role in Unequal Partnership, Warsaw Institute, 27.06.2019 maintaining global strategic stability.”

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On the proving grounds The greatest Sino-Russian rapprochement is visible in their joint military exercises – especially in their transition to joint strategic command and staff exercises and their readiness to use the armed forces together in military demonstrations in different regions of the world. Initially, the two countries took part in joint military exercises not on a bilateral basis, but on a larger scale. An example of such cooperation is the ‘Peace Mission,’ a project carried out by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) since 2005. As part of this initiative, these exercises aimed to improve cooperation in actions in Central Asia. The model of cooperation between Russia and China on water and land proving grounds began to change only in 2016 when exercises of the navy of the two countries were held near the Guangdong province. The scenario of the exercises consisted of, among others, landing, occupying, and defending the islands. It was the most massive naval operation of this kind in China and Russia so far. Less than a year later, in July 2017, the bilateral maritime exercise took place – for the first time in history – in the Baltic Sea.

As mentioned, a joint action of the two countries that was of crucial importance for the cooperation was Vostok-2018, Russia’s training activities, to which their Chinese

partner was invited. The Chinese contingent © www.setsco.org amounted to 3.5 thousand troops, plus armored vehicles, tanks, artillery, helicopters, and planes. Later on, China In the autumn of 2019, Russia once again began to regularly take part in Russian invited China to take part in its annual exercises and war games, for example, in strategic exercise, which summarizes and 2019 in Clear Sky 2019, Aviadarts 2019, or tests the armed forces’ preparedness after Tank Biathlon 2019. As part of another war the entire exercise season. game, Army 2019, the parties swapped their subdivisions – the Russian exercised in a The agenda of Tsentr 2019 envisaged, Chinese proving ground, and the Chinese among other things, large-scale offensive took part in various exercises in Russia3. operations with air units and using Russian experience in Syria and Ukraine 3 Marcin Gawęda, Rosyjsko-chińskie wojskowe (rapid deployment of strike forces to „braterstwo”, Defence 24, 14.09.2019 occupy the territory before the opponent

56 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Qingdao city, China, June 10, 2018 moves its reserves to this location). When Tsentr 2019 a great success, demonstrating practicing this type of operation, Russia high levels of Sino-Russian cooperation had NATO in mind, while China was and exchanged military experience4. interested in the campaign against Taiwan – occupying the island in a massive During the past several years, both sides landing operation before the U.S. comes have engaged in many bilateral and to help. About 3,200 soldiers from China multilateral exercises. Some of them were and over 20 Chinese aircraft took part in attended by Central Asian within the the training exercise with the use of heavy SCO, others, for example, by Iran – during H-6k bombers capable of carrying atomic 4 Pavel Felgenhauer, Russia Completes Massive weapons. Sergey Shoygu and his Chinese Tsentr 2019 War Games With Enhanced Chinese counterpart, General Wei Fenghe, declared Participation, Jamestown Foundation, 26.09.2019

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operation. The military relations between Russia and China are still not as close as A classic full-fledged those between the U.S. and its allies. alliance between China Disagreements In an assessment published in January and Russia is currently 2019, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said that “China and Russia impossible because it are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s.”6. Nevertheless, compared would be based solely on to the diplomatic and economic aspects, the military aspect of the Sino-Russian their rivalry with the U.S. partnership is still relatively weak in that it makes it impossible for Moscow and – perceived differently in Beijing to forge an alliance. Furthermore, the participation of Chinese armed forces Moscow and Beijing. in the Vostok-2018 (and even more so Tsentr 2019) military training activities a trilateral naval exercise in the Indian should not be overestimated. While Russia Ocean. The number and scale of exercises deployed several hundred thousand troops are increasing every year. What is valuable and about a thousand aircraft, China sent for the Chinese army, which has not fought 3200 soldiers and six aircraft. in decades, is Russian experience in Syria on how to deploy brigade-sized forces that A classic full-fledged alliance between combine air and ground elements with China and Russia is currently impossible special operations forces. China is also because it would be based solely on learning from Russia’s military experience, their rivalry with the U.S. – perceived gaining knowledge on logistics of foreign differently in Moscow and Beijing. operations and how to protect bases in Besides, there are many differences foreign countries5. Joint military exercises between the two countries – among are also intended to increase confidence others, the rivalry in the Arctic and the between the two countries and inform North Pacific, the two regions that Russia about the other’s military intentions. seeks to guard against competitors (China This was the case during the Vostok-2018 has growing ‘polar’ ambitions) and selling exercise, when the Russian Eastern Russian weapons to Beijing’s biggest rival, Military District, responsible for military India, and also to Vietnam. planning for possible war scenarios with China, for the first time conducted Another field of silent competition its sizeable military training exercise between Russia and China is Central with the participation of the Chinese Asia, the fact of which can be observed army. However, it has not established a within the framework of the Shanghai basis for joint major military operations Cooperation Organization. Russia wants between Russia and China. Even the the SCO to remain purely military and SCO format lacks the mechanisms of limited to defense, while China would like integrated command, control, and support to transform it into a more comprehensive indispensable to conduct a large joint war

5 Richard Weitz, The Expanding China-Russia 6 Warsaw Institute Special Report, Chinese-Russian Defense Partnership, Hudson Institute, 13.05.2019 Unequal Partnership, Warsaw Institute, 27.06.2019

58 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance body, a tool for developing economic influence in the post-Soviet area. Beijing, on the other The end of the Russian-American INF treaty opens the way for the deployment hand, treats cooperation of intermediate-range missiles near China also by its main continental neighbor. with Russia more as a The missile arsenal of China has long been a factor taken into account by tactical, temporary state Russian strategists. The development of modernized and more precise Chinese intended to serve only its intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) was one of the reasons why own interests. Russia began threatening to leave the INF as early as 2007. the two sides in all spheres.” In June 2019, Beijing does not endorse the annexation the Russians described the agreements of Crimea by Russia and its factual signed by Putin and Xi in Moscow as the annexation of Abkhazia and South opening of a ‘new era,’ also in the military Ossetia, while Moscow does not provide cooperation of both countries. China formal diplomatic support for Chinese did not publicly correct the statements claims in the South China Sea and the East made by the Russians; it probably made China Sea. Both Moscow and Beijing want it clear ‘behind the scenes’ that it did not to avoid being drawn into conflicts with approve of such a message, which can be third countries by the other side. concluded from what Putin said a few days later. “We do not have any military Can we refer to Russia and China’s alliance with China. We are strategic relationship as to a military alliance? partners: we do not act against each As some rumor says, in 1969, Soviet other; we work for the benefit of ourselves Chairman of the Council of Ministers and our partners, and we do not intend Alexei Kosygin stopped over in the to swap or remove anything,” Putin Beijing airport for talks with his Chinese said at The St. Petersburg International counterpart, Zhou Enlai, when coming Economic Forum8. A similar situation back from the funeral of Ho Chi Minh. occurred in the second half of the year When the host wanted to welcome the when on October 3, 2019, Putin said guest, Kosygin drew back, that Russia was working with China to saying, “This is premature.”7 build a joint radar missile defense system and mentioned the “allied relationship” An alliance? Not necessarily with Beijing. Nevertheless, already in Only recently, Russia started using the December, during his annual press word “ally” to refer to China. One of such conference, he assured that the said radar first public uses was a comment of the system is purely defensive, and Russia is Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on not planning to form a military alliance the Chinese participation in the Russian with China, even though it is helping the strategic exercises Vostok-2018: “It is a PRC to build a missile warning system. sign of the expanded partnership between

8 RIA Novosti, Путин заявил, что Россия и 7 Leon Aron, Are Russia and China Really Forming Китай не создают военных союзов, RIA Novosti, an Alliance?, Foreign Affairs, 04.04.2019 07.06.2019

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China is careful when it comes to using the or its security interests are involved, or word “alliance” to describe its relationship when it is confronted with the threat with Russia. There is a difference between of aggression, the contracting parties how Beijing sees its military cooperation shall immediately hold contacts and with Russia and how Moscow does. consultations in order to eliminate such The rapprochement of the two countries threats.”10. results from bad relations with the U.S. of both China and Russia, and it is, A missile rapprochement nevertheless, limited by concerns of both The Sino-Russian defense partnership sides. Russia is not particularly keen to falls into several categories – arms sales, develop cooperation in certain areas where military exercises, meetings, declarations, it has a clear technological advantage over and exchanges. Recently, there has been a China. Beijing, on the other hand, treats particular strengthening of cooperation cooperation with Russia more as a tactical, in the latter group – these exchanges temporary state intended to serve only have become more institutionalized and its own interests. The statements made by better integrated. Military leaders of both Russia (with Putin at the forefront) mirror countries meet frequently and regularly in a new level of military partnership – a kind various bilateral and multilateral formats. of “undeclared alliance.” Russia wants They issue numerous joint statements on to develop military cooperation with various security issues, including missile China in specific areas: in the air and at defense, the militarization of space, sea – which is clearly directed against the international terrorism, and regional issues, U.S. At the same time, Moscow does not with the Korean conflict at the forefront11. want to hurry with supporting China in modernizing its land forces – the element A new stage in the military cooperation of military potential that could threaten of both countries began in 2018, although Russia in the future9. already in 2017, a three-year roadmap for bilateral military cooperation was signed The June 2019 “Joint Statement on from Russia’s initiative. Beijing became Developing a Comprehensive Partnership more inclined to such cooperation only of Strategic Coordination for a New Era,” after the beginning of the trade war with states that in developing of their bilateral the U.S. The development of contacts relations, Russia and China “refuse to in the area of technology and emphasis forge an alliance, to confront and to act on strategic armaments have become against third countries.” It also mentions a characteristic feature of the current a “strategic alliance” that does not, Sino-Russian cooperation in the military however, contain one crucial element of area. Moscow admitted that it helped every alliance: the firm commitment to China to set up a missile warning system, provide military assistance if one of the which is the most important and sensitive allies becomes a target. Although it is component of any country’s strategic worth adding that the still valid Article 9 nuclear power management system. of the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Good- However, it is not clear what elements of Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation the early warning system were involved states: “When a situation arises in which one of the contracting parties deems that 10 Василий Кашин, Необъявленный союз. Как peace is being threatened and undermined Россия и Китай выходят на новый уровень военного партнерства, Carnegie Moscow Centre, 9 Paul Goble, Russian-Chinese Military ‘Alliance’ 18.10.2019 Both More and Less Than It Appears, Jamestown 11 Richard Weitz, The Expanding China-Russia Foundation, 22.10.2019 Defense Partnership, Hudson Institute, 13.05.2019

60 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance in Russian contribution – whether it was the ground part or the space part; the management and data processing system, The Arctic is of crucial or all these elements at once. What was known was only that Russia and importance for China’s China cooperate extensively in building missile and air defense systems in the nuclear deterrence. domain of warfare (for example, regular joint exercises of anti-aircraft forces as One of them is the security (anquan) – the part of “Aerospace Security” computer Arctic is of crucial importance for China’s simulation). nuclear deterrence. China wants military access into the Arctic to strengthen its Nowadays, cooperation can be expected strategic position vis-à-vis the U.S. The in terms of strategic missile defense, Chinese underwater fleet has six Type supersonic technologies, or construction 094 ships, each of which can carry 12 of nuclear submarines. These are areas intercontinental JL-2 ballistic missiles from which both sides can benefit without with a range of 8-9 thousand kilometers. compromising their strategic security Beijing is also working on more advanced interests. If there were to be a crisis with Type 096 ships (which are to start being China in the future, Russia would be used between 2022 and 2023). It will be most concerned about the strength of possible in each of them to arm it with 24 China’s land-based troops and the arsenal JL-3 missiles. Stationed in Arctic waters, of medium and short-range missiles. the Chinese would significantly reduce the Increasing the capabilities of the Chinese distance of their catapults from U.S. land ocean fleet, building a strategic missile targets. For example, the distance from early warning system, building strategic the Chinese coastline near Shanghai to missile defense, or increasing the number New York is 11,800 kilometers, whereas of intercontinental missiles does not pose a from the North Pole it is 3,400 kilometers problem for Moscow. The coordination of – three times less12. In the annual strategic early warning systems for rocket Pentagon report on China’s military attacks would be a major strengthening of power published in May 2019, a section the defense capabilities of both countries. devoted to Beijing’s military interests in Russia could count on Chinese radars, the Arctic appeared for the first time13. In while China could count on Russian ones August 2019, NATO Secretary-General – of course, in the context of the threat of a Jens Stoltenberg expressed concern about nuclear strike by the U.S. “China’s increased presence in the Arctic.”

The Arctic and Arms If Chinese nuclear-armed submarines Since the threat of a potential impact were able to access the Arctic basin of American intercontinental ballistic undetected, the balance of power would missiles (ICBMs) comes from the Arctic, change completely. The targets in the U.S. it is China’s vulnerable northern flank and Europe would immediately be within in the context of this country’s nuclear China’s reach. To reach this area, however, safety. The key components of U.S. missile defense are located in Alaska. A report 12 Sergey Sukhankin, Russian-Chinese Military published in January 2018 by China’s Alliance in the Arctic: An (Im)Possible Prospect?, Jamestown Foundation, 31.05.2019 State Council Information Office, titled 13 Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security “China’s Arctic Policy,” indicates three Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China core priorities for China’s Arctic interests. 2019, Office of the Secretary of Defense, 02.05.2019

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Arctic Ocean (north of western Russia)

the PRC fleet must get through several and ships. As far as arms exports are chokepoints closely monitored by Japan, concerned, Moscow has taken advantage the U.S., and Russia: the straits that divide of the restriction on China’s access to the Japanese archipelago; the Bering Strait; Western products (sanctions introduced and the waters surrounding the Russian after the Tiananmen Square massacre). islands along the Northern Sea Route In the 1990s, Moscow sold a large number (Severnaya Zemlya – the Northern Land of Su-27 to Beijing and even granted and New Siberian Islands)14. In May 2019, a license on its production in China. Russian analyst Alexander Shirokorad However, China later broke the contract raised the possibility of Russia providing and used the acquired technological port support for Chinese submarines in knowledge to build its own J-11 fighter, the Arctic and proposed a joint Russia- a near-copy of Su-27. Nevertheless, China air and missile defense system for according to the Stockholm International the Arctic15. Moscow may be ready to allow Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China the Chinese fleet to enter these waters, was Russia’s largest client between 1999 linking this to Beijing’s involvement in the and 2006 (in 2005. China accounted for development of the Northern Sea Route 60% of the volume of Russia’s exports (investments, loans, technologies). of weapons)16. This was followed by a sharp decline in China’s share in Russian Russia played an important role in exports (in 2012, it accounted for only modernizing China’s military equipment. 8.7%). The arms trade between the two What is more, it may also be interested has been restored in recent years. In 2015, in Chinese products, such as drones the two countries concluded a contract for the sale to China of the S-400 and Su-35 14 Anne-Marie Brady, Facing Up to China’s Military air defense systems – one of the most Interests in the Arctic, Jamestown Foundation, 10.12.2019 15 Александр Широкорад, Борьба за Арктику 16 Siemon T. Wezeman, China, Russia and the shifting нарастает, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 17.05.2019 landscape of arms sales, SIPRI, 05.07.2017

62 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia-China: a limited liability military alliance advanced Russian weapons. It should be exchange of experience and information, said, however, that Russia also sells them mutual assistance in servicing weapons to other countries and that from 2013 to and military equipment, and joint 2017, a Chinese rival, India, was the largest scientific and historical military events. recipient of Russian weapons (with 35 percent of Russian arms exports going to The document did not provide for joint this country, compared with 12 percent military exercises but mentioned inviting going to China)17. In June 2019, Moscow representatives of the other country to announced that it intends to sell the exercises as guests. The document did, second batch of advanced Su-35 planes to nonetheless, leave room for other forms China. Furthermore, it may also sell Su-57. of cooperation by adding a provision that In March 2019, information was published they are “subject to agreement between that China and Russia are already jointly the parties.”19. As a result, by December building heavy-lift helicopters, a total of 1 of each year, the two countries would 200 units for 20 billion USD18. On January sign a cooperation plan for the following 27, 2020, Russia has concluded the delivery year, detailing the steps for developing of the second S-400E regimental set. mutual cooperation. Sometimes additional agreements were signed, such as the What is on the paper? 2007 agreement on the status of troops Paradoxically, observing the restoration temporarily stationed on each other’s of the arms trade, joint exercises, and territory – which was made after regular military patrols, shows how Sino-Russian joint exercises started to be organized in cooperation is delayed in the context 2005. In 2017, a three-year roadmap was of documents and formal agreements. adopted, providing a legal basis for a wide The Treaty of Good-Neighborliness range of forms of military cooperation and Friendly Cooperation Between between Russia and China. the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation signed on July 16, All already existing new military contacts, 2001, does not include a defense clause in as well as plans for the next ones, will most which both parties would undertake to certainly be included in a new military provide military assistance in the event cooperation agreement, which will replace of aggression by a third country. The the already outdated 1993 deal. document allows defense cooperation but Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship will also does not give a possibility for joint military soon expire – in 2021. It cannot be ruled action against a third country. out that the new document will include provisions concerning the joint defense of The Russian government approved the China and Russia. This may turn out to be present agreement between the defense the most accurate indication of the actual ministries of China and Russia on October level of military cooperation between the 11, 1993. The relatively short and general two countries and, last but not least, of the document focuses on creating conditions intentions of their leaders for the future. for cooperation in the area of military technologies of the two countries. Grzegorz Kuczyński It mentions training of personnel, March 2020

17 Leon Aron, Are Russia and China Really Forming an Alliance?, Foreign Affairs, 04.04.2019 18 Stephen Blank, Joint Bomber Patrol Over the 19 Vassily Kashin, Joint Russian-Chinese Air Patrol Pacific: The Russo-Chinese Military Alliance in Action, Signifies New Level of Cooperation, Carnegie Moscow Jamestown Foundation, 30.07.2019 Centre, 30.07.2019

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Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian relations in times of crisis in international alliances Aleksander Ksawery Olech

mmanuel Macron has never flown aspirations to take the lead in really taken an anti-Russian Europe and decide on its fate. Nowadays, stance, even though this is the Macron is falling behind Donald Trump. image of the French president Another thing to his disadvantage is that Ethat the Russian media have repeatedly Chancellor Angela Merkel has slipped presented. When he was Minister of the into the obscurity of the European Economy and Industry, he advocated political scene, whereas she could that the sanctions against Russia should have been of much help to her French be lifted, and two weeks after he became ally otherwise. This is why the French President, he invited Vladimir Putin to president had to take the initiative Versailles. The French president is also himself and decide on measures that very positively viewed by the Russian would attempt to make him the leader minority in France. Several factors may of the post-Cold War game. However, he cause his open policy towards Russia. used an open-handed strategy seeking a One of them is undoubtedly the high- favorable agreement in the region rather

64 The Warsaw Institute Review Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian relations in times of crisis in international alliances

International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, © Yuri Kochetkov (PAP/EPA) Russia, May 25, 2018 than the rivalry that, from Emmanuel later, at the Petersburg International Macron’s perspective, the United States Economic Forum, the French President is looking for. showed rather considerable leniency towards Vladimir Putin. Although this GOOD THINGS START BADLY – HOW was an excellent opportunity to THE TWO POWERS CAME TOGETHER emphasize the need to resolve the Emmanuel Macron’s turn towards Ukrainian conflict and thus strengthen Russia surprised the world’s milieu of the influence of the Normandy format, experts in international relations. the French President remained distanced Almost no one had foreseen such a and muted. He also declared that he scenario. On the one hand, France and respected the reinforced role that Russia Germany embody the strength of the plays in its region. He began his speech European Union today, and Germany is by saying that it is necessary to be telling maintaining relations that represent a the truth, but during the discussion, he considerable advantage in its favor, see: did not make a reference to the Nord Stream 2. On the other hand, Paris contemporary threats in Europe. had not sent unambiguous signals that would indicate the possibility of France is exploring the possibilities of reconciliation with Russia, especially at eventual international alliances. The such a difficult time for NATO and the election of Donald Trump as US European Union. President was followed by a permanent and visible split between the US policy Interestingly, the French media indicate and that of Macron. The impasse in that as early as May 2017, Emmanuel bilateral relations created a gap that had Macron demonstrated a willingness to to be filled by another superpower. As it establish relations with Russia by turned out, it was an ideal moment for announcing possible cooperation. A year Russia, which showed that it is very keen

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The North Atlantic Council convening in 2010 © Open source

to engage in cooperation with France. annexation of Crimea, political freedoms The uncertainty of the NATO Alliance in Russia, or EU interference in public was pointed out by Macron, who life in individual member states. indicated that it is the current US However, it would appear, clearly to administration that rejects the concept some, that France and Russia need each of the international community. He other for their ambitions. indicated that each country should take care of itself and put its own interests Ending the War in Ukraine above those of other countries. Besides, France and Russia are likely to find a other EU members are concerned about solution to the conflict in Ukraine. Their whether strengthening the potential of bone of contention is above all the the North Atlantic Treaty Organization legality of Russia’s annexation of Crimea still lies in the interest of the EU member in March 2014. However, in terms of the states. The situation is causing instability ceasefire, respect for human rights and in the geopolitical circles, and there are humanitarianism, and the establishment more and more doubts regarding of an initial agreement, the first step in Washington’s goals. It also raises the form of an exchange of prisoners questions about how or even whether the between Moscow and Kyiv has already United States can still be a dominant been taken. On September 7, 2019, after player in the game for European stability several months of negotiations, the and what is the role of the Kremlin, breakthrough was reached. Eleven which accepts France’s hand. civilians and 24 soldiers with Ukrainian citizenship were exchanged for 35 FRANCE AND RUSSIA: COMMON imprisoned Russians and pro-Russian GROUND separatists. The exchange was supposed Diplomacy plays an essential role in the to mark the beginning of disarmament context of sanctions against Russia, in the region, but it remained only one of which are renewed on a regular basis. the rare acts of goodwill in the region. It There are significant differences in the should be noted that there are still many approach of NATO members to the prisoners in prisons on both sides,

66 The Warsaw Institute Review Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian relations in times of crisis in international alliances including Ukrainians and Crimean The latest meeting of the leaders of Tartars, who are held in prisons in Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France Russian-occupied Crimea. took place in December 2019 in Paris. The commitments made at the meeting The most important thing now is to find a included: a complete ceasefire by the end compromise that would restore the of 2019, giving the Organization for sovereignty of Ukraine over its eastern Security and Cooperation in Europe full borders (the goal of Paris) and guarantee control over the areas of Donetsk and rights and protection for Russian- Lugansk, implementing the ‘Steinmeier speaking minorities in eastern Ukraine formula’ in Ukrainian law, and enabling – in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts the free movement of people, goods and (the goal of Moscow). This should be done services between Ukraine and the through the Normandy format as part of Donbas region. The next meeting is a long-term strategy, where it is possible scheduled to take place in April 2020. Macron could be playing a significant role in the negotiations. The formation of the Consultative Council certainly deserves attention. It Moreover, a crucial aspect entails will include ten representatives of prospects orbital around ensuring Ukraine and the Donetsk and Luhansk Ukraine is not forced into giving up the People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), each areas occupied by Russian separatists. It with the right to vote and is unlikely Kiev even considers this as an representatives, each delegated by the option at all. It does affect both Russian OSCE, from France, Germany, and and French objectives in context of the Russia (one from each of those Normandy format. For them, method and countries). The latter will have an arguments that used to convince advisory role. All Council members will Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have to be accepted by the OSCE, are of secondary importance. What France, Germany, and Russia. At this matters here are effects that will cause a point, it is very difficult to decide real storm of events. It is imperative to whether this could really be a avoid a scenario which includes a breakthrough in Ukrainian-Russian surrender of Ukraine that accepts the relations. It is worth pointing out, demands of Russia, as this could trigger a however, that the representatives of both process that resembles the self- DPR and LPR have joined the new body, deterioration of this state. No more than which was accepted by Ukraine. What 30 years ago, Ukraine began to rise from will be decisive in this matter is the its knees and build its own history and attitude of France and Germany. identity, and yet the country is again being dismantled. Despite Ukraine’s Maintaining the Iran nuclear enormous problems with education, deal corruption, and, most importantly, with France and Russia may also come closer ensuring internal security, the authorities together through the nuclear agreement are trying to control Russia’s attacks and signed in 2015 between Iran and the not initiate any abrupt actions. The United States, Russia, Great Britain, problem, however, is that Ukraine is France, China, and Germany. Trump’s starting to struggle not only with Russia Administration condemned this but also with other countries that were agreement and stopped the lifting of initially supposed to help it in its conflict sanctions against Iran. Since then, with the Kremlin. Tehran has resumed its nuclear

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activities, destroying the status quo, to Turkey is also trying to draw France and maintain its balance of power. Things Germany into further engagement in have developed to such an extent that the Syria. The thousands of migrants who U.S. had even been considering the can enter Europe represent the main possibility of direct military action. In bargaining chip of President Erdogan in this situation, France and Russia should the process of putting pressure on the have the same vision. It could then be European Union, as was displayed with argued that agreement should be the latest tensions on the Greek-Turkish maintained to avoid nuclear borders. He aims to attain the political proliferation in the Middle East, an area and diplomatic commitment of the EU already exposed to many conflicts and and NATO with regard to the situation tensions. Quite simply, the U.S. has in Idlib. If France maintains its relatively imposed sanctions on Iran, and France out-of-conflict position, it will somehow did not seem to care at all. Iran’s support Russia, which is seeking to President Hassan Rouhani, who is an isolate Turkey. In the worst-case scenario ally of Russia, has found another partner for Erdogan, some 4 million Syrians will in Europe – where Macron offered Iran a enter Turkey. The Kremlin is thus once $15 billion ‘credit line’ plan to encourage again observing clashes between Turkey Iran to reverse its largely declaratory and the European Union, showing that it breaches of the JCPOA. The idea is does not care about almost anything that subject to approval for waivers from the happens on Syrian territory. Even the US to avoid potential repercussions from loss of its own troops. US sanctions. Achieving stabilization in Finding a solution to the Syrian Central Africa conflict Several international observers have The prolonged civil war in Syria is pointed out that private Russian military already posing a threat not only to the contractors are playing an increasingly country itself, to other countries in the active role in the ongoing crisis in the region, but also to Europe. Hundreds of Central African Republic. France is thousands of people have died and permanently present in the area, and continue to be killed because of these Russia is returning to the continent, and battles, not to mention the continual whether they find a modus vivendi or not displacement of several million people, will have a real but limited impact on the many of which have headed for Europe. ongoing civil war in the Central African Russia’s role in this conflict is important, Republic which involves a complex array considering that it has decided to of factions. The region of Central Africa intervene away from its borders and has may constitute a relevant point in relations been accused of helping the Bashar between Paris and Moscow that could al-Assad regime to use chemical provide a basis for further discussions on weapons. Today, Russia is actively other issues. It could serve as an indicator seeking agreement with Turkey and (or warning) to other states of what Iran. Potential French efforts in French-Russian cooperation in conflicts discussions or measures to help bring looks like, whether there are contributions the end of the destructive war in which to stabilization or whether it could rather Syrian citizens suffer most of the losses be argued as opportunistically taking could be useful, if they are not advantage of conflicts to pursue obstructed by geopolitical ambition in geopolitical interests, and what it could the region. mean for their country or situation.

68 The Warsaw Institute Review Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian relations in times of crisis in international alliances

Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and United © Open source (NATO official website) States President Ronald Reagan sign the INF Treaty at the White House, Washington, DC in 1987

Investing in Russia industry, and joint investments in third It should be noted that Russia’s economic countries. French investment in Russia cooperation with individual EU could prove to be a considerable support countries, including France, has been for Emmanuel Macron’s policy. good. More than 500 large Russian companies use French capital; trade Rebuilding collective security between the two countries increased by in Europe 16% and amounted to 14.2 billion USD, Shortcomings on the part of the OSCE and at the end of 2018, France was the to be able to thoroughly verify second-largest foreign investor in compliance with the arms control Russian shares after Germany. treaties and conflict prevention in Europe, as well as the withdrawal of the Currently, the total value of French United States from the Treaty on investments in the Russian economy Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces amounts to about 15 billion USD. In (INF) on the total elimination of addition, more and more companies intermediate-range missiles, could in with French capital seem open on effect make France one of the main operating on the Russian market. Active negotiators, if not the main negotiator, cooperation is particularly visible in the with both Moscow and Washington. If energy sector, the aviation and Macron wishes to cooperate with Russia, automotive industries, rail transport, he must choose between solidarity with infrastructure projects, the its Eastern European allies (Poland and pharmaceutical industry, the food the Baltic States) and Ukraine-related

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issues or finding compromises with format to resolve the conflict. There are Putin. The Russian president likely feels no concrete results that can be that too many concessions to any of the confidently described as tangible from NATO members, even France, may meetings between representatives of contribute to Russia’s isolation in Europe France, Russia, Germany, and Ukraine, and the loss of its influence. Whether which – after six years of talks – leads to both Marcon and Putin can demonstrate stagnation. ability to formulate deals that avoid such cold trade-offs remains to be seen. For this reason, given Macron’s policy Nevertheless, it would seem that we are towards Putin, a scenario in which more entering a new era of international normalized relations between France relations in which France will strive to and the Russian Federation are resumed play an increasingly decisive role. is likely to be pragmatic from the perspectives of Paris and Moscow in Starting all over again these contexts. In such a hypothetical The French approach towards Russia situation, potential outcomes include sometimes looks like a diplomatic tabula that the occupied territory of Ukraine rasa – one forgets about the past and could de facto remain in the hands of starts adventurous cooperation from the Russia whilst French-Russian relations beginning, i.e. a “reset” of relations. This would be renewed. Russia’s attacks on was the case in 2009 when President other countries, sending Russian troops Barack Obama tried to improve relations there or there, and pursuing an anti- between the United States and Russia. Western policy could be part of the daily On March 6, 2009, in Geneva, US agenda, as a result of newly attained Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confidence. presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a red button with the What would be the responses or word “reset” and the Roman alphabet reactions of other countries in Europe transliteration of the Russian equivalent – such as Poland, Spain, Latvia, of this word. It was intended that this Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Bulgaria, would be перезагрузка [«perezagruzka”], and Romania – to the “reset” of but, instead of the correct transliteration France’s relations with Russia? Not to of “reset,” it actually was the word for mention the USA, which aspires to be “overload” – перегрузка («peregruzka.”) the guarantor of security in Europe. What would happen to European An important fact is that the then solidarity and the strategy to strengthen renewal of the relationship was preceded NATO’s eastern flank? by the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. Therefore, this, together with the It is possible that a part of France’s aforementioned conflicts and policy calculus is that on the other hand, if the conundrums, it could be argued French- US administration was able to try to Russian relations are more shaped by renew relations with Russia, whether or recent conflicts in other countries than not it was an authentic attempt, why they are by anything else. It seems that, could not France do the same? In this, from the Russian-French perspective, the issue is what concessions that the contemporary situation in Donbas is Macron decides to make in order to very similar to that in South Ossetia. develop a clear relationship with Russia, Russia is occupying eastern Ukraine, as it would appear that concessions and France is engaging in the Normandy appear to be a central trade-off in this –

70 The Warsaw Institute Review Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian relations in times of crisis in international alliances hence, possibly, the engagements in aware of the crisis of Russia in Europe other conflicts. The core problem would after the annexation of Crimea – and be, then, to what extent such actions may use this knowledge in negotiations. could harm other countries in Europe, Furthermore, it seems that the especially the ones sharing borders with improvement of relations with Paris is the Russian Federation. If a relationship essential for the Kremlin. Vladimir reset could be accomplished twice (at the Putin would like to prove to the Western expense of Georgia and later Ukraine), it elite that a healthy partnership with seems likely that in a few years, it will be Russia would be beneficial. The question possible to press the reset button again. is whether such cooperation could be The question arises, however, at the fruitful or outright detrimental to expense of whom this time? Europe as a whole, noting of course, the precarious situation of states in Eastern CONCLUSIONS Europe. No wonder Russia sees great potential in its cooperation with France. Putin Another essential factor to consider is believes that once he reaches an the danger posed by the novel agreement with Macron, other countries coronavirus. Can the ongoing pandemic may be encouraged to follow the same have a real impact on the international path – forget about the recent past and situation and affect French-Russian look for cooperation opportunities. As relations? Macron does not seem to be Françoise Thom points out, this would ready for yet another catastrophe – other be the ultimate culmination of the than those already having a negative Kremlin’s long-standing policy based on impact on the situation in France, and information warfare and the strategy of already posing a threat to his candidacy testing the waters. Russia is moving in the presidential elections in 2022. The forward in achieving its goals to the attempts to build relations with Russia extent within its own reach. Policy- are part of the French strategy of testing makers ought to continue to try to figure the NATO–EU alliance and a way to out what it would take for Moscow to increase influence in Europe and Africa. stop striving to increase its influence in In addition, the possibility of an idea Europe. that Italy may become relatively more closely aligned to Russia in the future is Observing from the side, it would appear concerning, yet the publicity of the that in the view of France’s calculus, Russian army’s help in fighting improving relations with the Kremlin to COVID-19 against the help from the EU a noticeable extent would be a way for does factor into this. In this kind of the French President to liberate himself game, the parties in Europe would have from American geopolitical control. to be redefined. What is certain is that Emmanuel Macron is fighting for a more the whole situation related to both the sovereign and independent foreign strengthened French-Russian relations policy, and, with no German and the coronavirus epidemic is very involvement, he is making progress important for Poland. From now on, it is towards becoming a leader of the West necessary to look not only at the East’s – with what could be interpreted as the vulnerability, but also at the West. long-term desire to overtake Trump. Macron is now talking about adopting a Aleksander Ksawery Olech new strategy towards Russia that may March 2020 attract many supporters. He is well

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The Indo-Pacific: Still Under Construction

Bryce Wakefield

he Indo-Pacific, already also been signalled as a rejection of a concept that attracted earlier American approaches to regional interest in foreign policy diplomacy, such as the Pivot to Asia circles, increased significantly highlighted by former US Secretary Tin importance after it was included in of State Hillary Clinton. the 2017 US National Security Strategy and the 2018 Defence Strategy. The While the exact implications of Trump’s concept has thus, in media circles at endorsement of the Indo-Pacific are least, been branded “America’s new unclear, what is clear is that the United geopolitical world view for Asia,” and, States sees the Indo-Pacific as a military associated with the Trump presidency, and diplomatic “strategy” geared towards has been criticised as one of a number enhancing American interests and of American attempts “to boil down relations with allies in the region. foreign policy into just a few words.” In particular, it is also a call to confront Trump’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” has and perhaps even contain China.

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East Asia Summit in Manila, Philippines, 14 November 2017 © Bullit Marquez (PAP/EPA)

This is the sense in which the Trump Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. administration uses the term “Free The first time the term gained clear official and Open Indo-Pacific” as a normative currency was when the Australian, not statement of what the region should be American, government included it in its and a policy agenda that American allies 2013 Defence White Paper. Moreover, as should get behind. an official position, Australia’s approach to this newly defined region recognised The Indo-Pacific concept, however, is China as an important trading partner and hardly new, nor is it the exclusive preserve was intended to be complementary to the of either the Trump Administration or US Obama administration’s “management” foreign policy circles. The term has been of China through the Asian “pivot.” used as early as the 1920s, but in its more contemporary concept, it had regularly The Indo-Pacific and its related concepts featured in the informal discussions of US such as the “Quadrilateral Strategic politicians and officials, including former Dialogue” also have evident precursors

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in Japan, where officials in the first Abe between the three democratic partners, administration from 2006-2007 outlined which convened in May 2007 on the the need for such security concepts as a sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (geographically much broader) “arc of in Manila, following military exercises in freedom and prosperity” and, later, an Japan between the four parties. “Asian democratic defence diamond” based on attachment to fundamental values, Understandably, Abe’s initiative was notably democracy, open commerce and criticised by Beijing as a move to counter respect for international law. Chinese influence in the region. Indeed, many observers of security policy in Asia It’s useful, then, to explore the different took it for granted that the Quad was articulations of the Indo-Pacific concept. conceived from the start as the beginning For the Indo-Pacific is beginning to of a serious regional effort to contain pique the interest of observers and policy Chinese power. Some urged caution in practitioners as far away as Europe. an era when the foreign policy goals of But engagement with the Indo-Pacific nations in the Asia-Pacific still focused on will be not be fruitful without an shaping “China’s peaceful rise.” understanding that it has different implications for different actors. Criticism of the Quad as a new form Here, I trace the development of the Indo- of containment was particularly Pacific as a regional concept in order to uncomfortable for Australia, given its highlight variety in national articulations, increasing economic reliance on Chinese focusing in particular on Japan, Australia, trade and investment. After coming to and India, states that have lent a great deal power in 2007, a new Labor government to the development of the term, as well led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a as the Association of South East Asian former diplomat with extensive experience Nations (ASEAN) which is now reluctantly in Beijing, announced that it would not engaging with the Indo-Pacific concept. propose another session of the four-way meeting in 2008. The announcement of The Confluence of Two Seas Australia’s “withdrawal” from the Quad Although, in its recent context, the term came during a joint press conference “Indo-Pacific” emerged in the United between Australian Foreign Minister States, it has been the foreign policy Stephen Smith and his Chinese counterpart communities in Australia and Japan Yang Jiechi, fuelling speculation that that have been responsible for the early Australia’s international position was development and diffusion of the Indo- leaning ever further towards China. Neither Pacific as a regional concept. In fact, the Rudd nor his successor Julia Gillard showed current normative American formulation any interest in reviving the Quad during of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” arguably their time in office. owes much of its development to ideas that have been circulating in Japan since Abe, however, continued to pursue the the mid-2000s. It was then that Japanese concept of greater regional integration. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promoted Speaking in India shortly before he the concept of the quadrilateral dialogue resigned as prime minister due to health or the “Quad.” Building on existing reasons, Abe spoke of a “broader Asia” structures, such as a series of trilateral emerging from a “Confluence of Two meetings between Australia, Japan and the Seas,” the title of a book authored in 1655 United States, Abe proposed the addition by an Indian prince. At the same time of India to a formal strategic dialogue Taro Aso, Abe’s foreign minister, who

74 The Warsaw Institute Review The Indo-Pacific: Still Under Construction soon after Abe became prime minister, which was to allow like-minded states to spoke of broadening “the horizons of safeguard the maritime region between Japan’s diplomatic activities and, indeed, Japan, Australia, India, and Hawaii and Japan’s outlook” by helping to maintain to prevent the South China Sea from an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” becoming “Lake Beijing.” a broad geographical semicircle that encompassed Southeast Asia, Australia, Abe’s proposal of a four-power defence New Zealand, and India before heading arrangement to counter China was through Afghanistan on its way to Europe. initially met with little enthusiasm, but The concept of democratic nations by 2013 found a fairly receptive partner working together to foster prosperity thus in Prime Minister Tony Abbott, whose contained components analogous to the Australian Liberal Party had ousted later American conceptualisation of the Labor. However, political intrigue Free and Open Indo Pacific. within his own party meant that Abbott would be replaced in 2015 by Malcolm Language on regional integration based Turnbull. Canberra’s subsequent decision on a concert of democracies, however, to purchase French Shortfin Barracuda subsided when Abe and Aso’s Liberal submarines to replace Australia’s aging Democratic Party fell in 2009 to the Collins-class fleet cooled relations with Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Tokyo considerably, as Abe apparently DPJ Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama believed Abbott had all but assured him stressed a pan-Asian form of integration Japan’s Soryu class subs would win and continued Japanese engagement with the contract. Indeed, Richard Samuels, India but resigned less than a year after a prominent American analyst of Japan’s his victory after becoming embroiled in defence posture, noted at the time a dispute over U.S. basing rights in Japan. that of all the deals on offer, “only the For the rest of its time in office, the DPJ’s Japanese choice would have strengthened foreign policy priorities were to repair strategic cooperation between America’s its relations with the United States and, two most important partners in East after a maritime dispute with China, to Asia.” For the first year of the Turnbull reorient its security posture to focus more government in Australia, relations intently on the region to its South. between Tokyo and Canberra remained cordial, if rather chilly. Back in office in late 2012, Abe attempted to revive the Quad, referring Australia’s Indo-Pacifics to the concept in an opinion piece as Australia has been an enthusiastic a “democratic security diamond,” where supporter of the Indo-Pacific concept, he directly referenced his 2007 India if not always in the terms articulated speech and the idea of the “Confluence by Abe. It was shortly after Abe’s re- of the Two Seas,” in other words, his emergence as prime minister, and his version of the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s articulation of the “democratic security attempts to claim territory in the South diamond” that Australia became the first China Sea, coupled with the island nation to take up the term officially, in dispute with Japan, had since raised its 2013 Defence White Paper. However, concerns in Washington about China’s under the then-Labor government led military posture. With the narrative by Gillard, the concept of the Indo- about China rising peacefully sidelined, Pacific was far less confrontational Abe could now let loose about the towards China than Abe’s thought-piece. purpose of a four-power arrangement, Indeed, the White Paper “welcomed

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Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison and India's © Mick Tsikas (PAP/EPA) Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2018 ASEAN Summit in Singapore

China’s rise” and the attendant economic Pacific democracies, to promote and opportunities that would accrue to protect a shared vision for the region Australia. and to support a balance in the region favourable to our interests.” Later documents published after the Australian Liberal Party came to power The difference in Australia’s position in 2013 outlined an Indo-Pacific that between 2013 and 2017 certainly was more in line with Abe’s notion of reflects changing attitudes in Australia the region. While the 2017 Australian towards China, but also suggests that in Foreign Policy White Paper noted the Australia, more diverse understandings importance of Australia’s relationship of the concept influence the debate on with China, this was more because the Indo-Pacific than in Japan and the “of China’s growing influence on the United States. It also highlights the regional and global issues of greatest fact that since 2012, at least, Japan’s consequence to our security and leadership has been more stable than prosperity.” This new White Paper noted Australia’s. As noted, Abe made the the importance of Australia’s partnership Quad his pet project in 2006 and with Japan and in a nod to the Quad reiterated it almost immediately after noted that Australia was ready to work taking office again in 2012. Since then, in “small groups” with “major Indo- the conceptualisation of the Indo-Pacific

76 The Warsaw Institute Review The Indo-Pacific: Still Under Construction at Japan’s highest level of government has that even within nations, and certainly remained largely consistent. within Australia, differences in location can influence preferred definitions of Not so in Australia, where there have regional concepts. been five different prime ministers over the same period and at least two major The second understanding of the understandings of the Indo-Pacific. Indo-Pacific in Australia is closer to The first of these understandings is Abe’s formulation, and agrees that that the Indo-Pacific merely relabels the more troubling aspects of Chinese Australia’s region in a way that is more geostrategic behaviour point to desire apt to Australian national interests than for regional domination that must be older formulations like the “Asia-Pacific.” checked. However it less emphatically Former Australian Defence Secretary promotes the notion of a stable group Ric Smith, for example, sees the term of states challenging China. According as a useful construct for outlining the to this articulation, the Indo-Pacific is importance of the Indian Ocean to an area where like-minded states can Australia’s trade and security, without discuss and implement common policy discounting the importance to Australia programs, but always with an eye on of Asia or the Pacific. Within this China’s increasing power and with a conceptualisation, the Indo-Pacific is not sense that floating coalitions of states a construct used to challenge China, in the region can work to prevent but a description of a region where Chinese dominance without rigid China is a very important and potentially containment strategies that might constructive actor. provoke an outright Chinese attack.

It is no coincidence that several of the This conceptualisation, articulated most key supporters of this view of the Indo- prominently by the Head of the National Pacific are, like Ric Smith, from or based War College at the Australian National in Western Australia. Most of Australia’s University Rory Medcalf, who has done mineral trade is exported from the state much to develop the concept of the Indo- and travels either across the Indian Pacific since the 2000s, Ocean or through the Sea Lanes of is gaining ground in the Australian Communication (SLOCs) in Southeast policy discourse. In 2017, the same Asia. Stephen Smith, for example, the year the Foreign Policy White Paper former foreign minister who was no appeared, Australia responded positively enthusiast for the Quad, is nevertheless to the approach from Abe to rejoin the a supporter of the Indo-Pacific in this Quad, signalling renewed warmth in less “confrontational” articulation. In relations between Japan and Australia. fact, the Indo-Pacific has entered the Indeed, Shiro Armstrong, a researcher common parlance more in Western at the Australian National University Australia than in any other Australian claims that it was cooperative diplomacy state. The Indo-Pacific is regularly on the part of Abe and Turnbull that referred to in Western Australian media pushed Trump to recognise the Indo- commentary as the central concept Pacific as a central strategic concern for that defines the region. Meanwhile, the United States. the Perth USAsia Centre, a think-tank based in the state capital, highlights However, official conceptualisations Western Australia as “the gateway to of the Indo-Pacific in Australia still the Indo-Pacific.” This demonstrates tend to stress the notion of the Indo-

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Pacific as the region, rather than a set traditionally been shallow, and India has of relations that Australia can work traditionally sought non-alignment in within to forward its interests. While international affairs. There is continued the opposition Labor Party now sees reticence in some quarters of New some value in the Quad, moreover, the “Delhi” to see Australia in particular “geographical” aspects of the Indo- as a potential regional security partner. Pacific would come more clearly to To be fair, Indian reluctance in dealing the fore were a Labor government to with Australia is grounded in part gain power in the next election cycle, in Australia’s withdrawal from the something that is unlikely to happen in Quad—which New Delhi viewed as an Japan. While the two countries have both abrupt unilateral move taken without added much to the concept, there are prior consultation. Australia’s economic different nuances to their approach overexposure to China is also seen as to the Indo-Pacific. a sign that Australia would be a fair- weather friend in a confrontation India’s turnaround? with Beijing. Meanwhile, India has become a most unlikely cheerleader of the Indo-Pacific However, India’s recent behaviour concept, but again, this is couched suggests that its government is taking very much in its own terms. For years, the Indo-Pacific, including relations even after Australia’s withdrawal from with Australia, much more seriously. the Quad, New Delhi was seen as the There has been increasing speculation, least committed major actor to the for example, that India will invite concept of the Indo-Pacific, despite the Australia to participate in its Malabar increased attention to India the concept naval exercises in 2020. Relations was encouraging. Indeed, Australian between Prime Minister Narendra strategic thinker Hugh White, who is Modi, Abe and current Australian sceptical about the Indo-Pacific as a Prime Minster Scott Morrison are strategic concept, bases his criticism exceedingly warm, and all three have largely on a sense that the interests of managed to cultivate good relations India do not converge with supposedly with Trump, which is no easy feat. “like-minded” states in the way that As in Australia, a section has been set up analysts like Medcalf presume: while within India’s foreign affairs ministry to White sees Chinese domination of the deal specifically with the “Indo-Pacific.” Western Pacific as an inevitable security And most noteworthy of India’s embrace threat to states like Australia, he sees of the Indo-Pacific was Modi’s decision this domination as less of a concern to focus on the concept in his keynote to India, separated from China by the speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue in geographical barriers of the Himalayas 2018, arguably Asia’s most important and from the Western Pacific by South dialogue on regional security. East Asia. India in this articulation has its own concerns about Beijing’s motives, Somewhat predictably, given White’s but they do not overlap neatly with the concerns, India’s articulation of the concerns of those who more clearly share Indo-Pacific is markedly different to maritime space with China. that expressed by Japan, Australia, and certainly the United States. In White’s critique is undergirded by his Shangri-La speech, Modi stressed historical experience: India’s security the notion of the Indo-Pacific as an relations with Japan and Australia have “inclusive” concept. However, Indian

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14th Meeting of the ASEAN-Japan JCC, March 11th, 2020 © ASEAN (official website) analysts such as Rajesh Basrur and or White’s thesis about India’s lack of Rajesh Rajagopalan consider it obvious commitment to the Indo-Pacific concept that India’s recent adoption of the Indo- will eventually prove correct. Pacific concept is designed to hide a strategy designed to deal with China’s In the meantime, Modi is attempting rise. Thus, talk of inclusion is not the to marry the Indo-Pacific to concepts same as describing the Indo-Pacific in inherent in India’s past approach to the the geographical terms as is popular region. His Shangri-La speech stressed in some quarters in Australia. Instead, ASEAN centrality, consistent with the according to Rajagopalan, writing in “Look-East” and “Act-East” policies a recent issue of International Affairs, that India had previously espoused. India “is balancing China while trying to Those policies stressed India’s economic reassure it.” India does not want Beijing integration into the East Asian region to interpret the Indo-Pacific as “aimed through ASEAN, however. at” China, although that is precisely New The continuation of a military dialogue Delhi’s motivation for supporting it. between Japan and India after the first Rajagopalan sees this strategy—what he iteration of the Quad failed and the calls “evasive balancing”—as ultimately revival of the Quad in 2017 suggest a unsustainable, suggesting either much more strategic aspect to India’s that India will need to become more ideas about the Indo-Pacific. Even while forthright and critical of Chinese power engaging with the three other Quad

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partners, though—and Modi has been Importantly, maritime cooperation and much more “forthright” in this respect connectivity head up a list of four “Areas than his predecessor—India does try to of Cooperation” in the document, and mute strategic language. It refers not to the importance of freedom of navigation, the “Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue” dialogue and peaceful settlement of or even “the Quad” but merely to “India– maritime disputes is stressed throughout. Australia–Japan–US consultations.” Language about ASEAN centrality, The Outlook’s references on maritime meanwhile, is clearly designed to suggest security and connectivity might that India’s attention to the Indo-Pacific underscore what Australian, Japanese and the Quad is rooted in more benign and American strategists have and earlier notions of its foreign policy. highlighted for decades: that the SLOCs flowing through the ASEAN states are ASEAN’s Anxiety crucial to an international system of For its part, ASEAN has been notoriously open trade and therefore to regional sceptical of ideas for regional integration security. The Outlook, however, almost that emerge from outside its membership, bends over backwards to avoid any and the Indo-Pacific is no exception in mention of strategic rivalry—no country, this regard. Nevertheless, Modi’s focus let alone China and the United States is on ASEAN centrality, coupled with the mentioned by name in the document— increased American attention to the and freedom of navigation is referenced Indo-Pacific as a strategy moved the ten- among a cornucopia of issues including nation group to publish its own position “sea piracy, robbery and armed robbery on the concept, titled the “ASEAN against ships at sea, etc.” Traditional Outlook on the Indo-Pacific” in 2019. security threats from particular nation- The move was seen as extremely states are never clearly realised in the significant by some commentators. document, which places it in stark Here was evidence, perhaps, that ASEAN contrast to strategic documents of the had finally come to see the concept as the United States, Japan, Australia, and other basis for wider regional integration. nations of the Indo-Pacific.

However, it is hard to see any new As indicated by its repeated references thinking in the ASEAN Outlook on the to the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean, Indo-Pacific. Rather, the document is a the Outlook, then, is not a signal that sign that ASEAN has capitulated to new ASEAN has embraced the concept of the terminology while trying to cement the Indo-Pacific. Even the very title has a ideas of the Indo-Pacific within familiar certain distancing effect: ASEAN is not regional institutions. While the ASEAN necessary “in” the Indo-Pacific so much Outlook does refer to the Indo-Pacific as looking out “on” it. The text refers to as a “closely and interconnected region” the Outlook itself as merely a “guide for ASEAN nevertheless sees this “region” ASEAN’s engagement in the Asia-Pacific as consisting of two distinct entities— and Indian Ocean.” In the section on the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean—not Areas for Cooperation, there isn’t a hint a “contiguity of territorial spaces.” Like of anything that looks like a practical most articulations of the Indo Pacific, policy measure that might address the the Outlook stresses the “importance of issues the section highlights. In place of the maritime domain and perspective in proposing solutions, the Outlook offers the evolving regional architecture” and measures that are very much within type of “development and prosperity for all.” for ASEAN: continual dialogue.

80 The Warsaw Institute Review The Indo-Pacific: Still Under Construction

Strategic discussions on “practical Conclusion cooperative activities can be pursued Despite the attempt by actors such as at ASEAN-led mechanisms including, the United States and, to a large extent, among others, the EAS, the ASEAN Japan to articulate the Indo-Pacific Plus One mechanisms, ARF, in terms of a clear strategy to counter and ADDM-Plus.” China, the Indo-Pacific is thus “still under construction.” The Indo-Pacific The lack of a clear policy agenda in the is variously a geographical description, Outlook may highlight the differences a term to emphasise the importance in the level of support among ASEAN of a maritime environment, a strategy member states for the Indo-Pacific through which US allies can balance concept: the governments of Indonesia China and assert the rule of law, a way and Thailand were broadly supportive of building shifting coalitions between of the Indo-Pacific as a concept—in like-minded states in the region, a rubric Jakarta’s case, in order to bolster claims for reinventing past relationships while of the centrality of Indonesia to the insisting those relationships remain the region—while Malaysia, at least under same, and a way of insisting that actors the presidency of Mohamed Mahathir, in the region not stray too far from the and Singapore were broadly sceptical norms and institutions that have in the or even hostile to the idea. This lack past served as useful platforms of agreement is one factor behind the for dialogue. absence of a clear policy roadmap for the Indo-Pacific with ASEAN at its centre. If external actors—Europeans, for example—are interested in engaging In general, though, the ASEAN Outlook in the region, they will need to note is symbolic of ASEAN’s desire not to be these differences, because joining the left behind in—and indeed, its desire to conversation on the Indo-Pacific may be central to—debates that are happening have vastly different connotations within its region. The Outlook also stands depending on the interlocuters involved. as only reluctant recognition that the In fact, critics like Hugh White may Indo-Pacific has become a term of choice be right, to an extent: given the vast among some of ASEAN’s key partners. geographical distance and different As with India’s conception of the Indo- strategic environments within the Pacific, it is clear that the document region, it is unlikely that we will ever is designed to tip-toe around Chinese see an Indo-Pacific of “member states” sensibilities, but unlike India, there is on the same strategic page. But the little sense in the Outlook that ASEAN Indo-Pacific is not going away. At is trying to find ways to deal with the the very least, it serves as a prompt challenge of Chinese regional power for conversation about how states outside of the norms and institutions in the region can cooperate, even if that ASEAN has already established. on an ad hoc, shifting basis, to meet Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the Outlook complementary if not completely attempts to redefine the Indo-Pacific in mutual interests, and that, perhaps, ways that stress the historical centrality is the ultimate value of the concept. of ASEAN and its institutions in the development of Asian regionalism. The Bryce Wakefield ASEAN Outlook, far from buying into a March 2020 new regional discourse, simply attempts to reassert comfortable forms of dialogue.

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Energy and the Battle for the Black Sea Laurențiu Pachiu, George Scutaru The Russian Tsar Peter the Great’s desire to gain access to the warm seas has almost become an undisputable Russian achievement in the Black Sea. Most probably, in the foreseeable future, access to the East Mediterranean Region is likely to de facto become a prize as well. In the last decade, the Russian Federation has succeeded, by means of soft, but mostly hard power politics to impose itself in the Black Sea Region and to consolidate an arch of power projection along NATO’s south-eastern frontier and the Middle East, areas which were controlled more or less wisely in the last decade by the United States.

82 The Warsaw Institute Review Energy and the Battle for the Black Sea

An opening ceremony of the Turkstream Project © Tolga Bozoglu (PAP/EPA) in Istanbul, Turkey, 08 January 2020.

ong before the Russo-Georgian Eurasian Union free trade agreement; “Five-Day War” of 2008, the privileged status of Russian energy annexation of Crimea (2014), companies in Syria, as a platform for Russia’s foothold in Syria Eastern Mediterranean energy projects. L(2015) and the establishment of a Black Sea A2/AD (Anti Access/Area Denial) Russia’s Creeping Influence via capability, Russia promoted a sustained Energy and effective diplomacy in the Black Sea Even countries that did not have region by laying major critical energy political or economic motivations for supply networks in Europe (along with their entanglement with Russian energy military cooperation, wherever possible), projects, eventually became (influenced by among Black Sea riparian or other Russia or not) “clients” of Russian energy relevant states, such as Turkey, Bulgaria, supplies – particularly in terms of natural Hungary, Serbia, Republic of Moldova gas. For instance, Romania’s failure to and Syria. Examples are the Blue Stream develop in time its Black Sea offshore gas pipeline, the recently inaugurated reserves (US energy giant ExxonMobil TurkStream offshore gas pipeline system announced its intention to withdraw from running through Turkey, Bulgaria and the project, while Russian linked or backed Serbia; Russian financed nuclear reactors undertakings are waiting in line to take in Hungary, gas supplies to and joint over, despite recent Romanian legislation energy projects with Serbia – along with granting the government transactional

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veto rights, and while investor unfriendly is that the notion of “natural gas as a and populist legislation still remains in transition fuel” has become a whispered force) and the consequent rise in Russian subject within the EU and will, gradually, gas imports into this country, are factual move to the bottom of EU’s energy confirmations of Russia’s capabilities in policy agenda. shaping energy markets and decision- making in the region. Despite its revolutionary nature and uncertainty in meeting the set targets The main vectors of Russia’s energy (given the tremendous economic expansion in Europe have always been impact on member states), any the the crucial role of energy as main revenue implementation of the European Green (particularly from Western Europe) Deal policies will likely shake the natural for the Russian state, and its strategic gas trade of Russia with Europe. One relevance as a foreign policy tool. More might therefore expect sustained Russian recently, an added rationale for Russia’s efforts (combined with independent quest for energy dominance in the region actions of certain countries, particularly is the strategic quest of avoiding transit in the SE European region, that are highly routes through unfriendly or disobedient dependent on carbon intensive fuels) to states, and an efficient combination of delay the implementation of the Green energy and military tools in a volatile Deal policy and continue banking on geopolitical context to advance Russia’s natural gas as a “transition fuel”. A major hegemonic aspirations. disruption caused by the European Green Deal on the short term to Russian energy The EU’s Shifting Energy Policy interests might also add several “black EU efforts in the last decade to enhance swans” in the Black Sea its energy security by developing natural as an “energy security sea”. gas interconnectors as part of the internal energy market and to promote alternative Militarization of the Black Sea sources and routes of gas supplies Another challenge to the Russian (considering the role of natural gas hegemony in the Black Sea region as a fuel of transition to the ultimate goal is Turkey. Despite its increasingly of a decarbonized European economy), independent posture in relation to the EU have been outpaced by a much more and, perhaps more importantly NATO, resolute and efficient Russian approach and a certain rapprochement with the of integrating diplomacy, market Russian Federation in critical sectors like penetration and traditional “active energy and defense, Turkey’s regional measures” campaigns. power aspirations will most certainly collide with Russia in the Black Sea and However, this hegemonic energy status near Middle Eastern regions. At least from of Russia does not remain unchallenged. an energy security perspective, Turkey, The interplay between the EU and Russia, as a crucial hub and transit country, as well as the much higher challenge of might eventually turn into a much more climate change have led to a historical and powerful and assertive Ukraine for the dramatic shift in EU’s energy policy, that Russian Federation, thus impacting the is the European Green Deal, launched in energy security climate in the entire 2019 by newly elected EU Commission. Black Sea region.

A consequence of this shift in Brussels’ Last but not least, if not motivated by pure bureaucratic environment and rhetoric energy security concerns for Europe, but

84 The Warsaw Institute Review Energy and the Battle for the Black Sea

New exclusive economic zone delimitation in the Black Sea a er the occupation of Crimea, the Russian vision

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A T Possible extention of TAP Source: www.russianworldforums.com also by reasons of promoting LNG exports flavor to the energy security equation in to Europe, another key actor engaged in the Black Sea Region and the progress of the energy security landscape in the Black the European Green Deal. Sea Region is the United States. The Three Seas Initiative promoted by the U.S. on the The militarization of the Black Sea region European NE-SE axis will definitely add by the Russian Federation also has a

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strong economic impact. Russia had exercises is not one desired by commercial approximately the same number of naval vessels. Russia especially started in 2019 to exercises in the Black Sea in 2019, but the notify such exercises, even in the exclusive number of days spent at sea by military economic zone of Romania and Bulgaria, vessels was higher. Russia has begun to where both countries have gas reserves. block wider perimeters in the Black Sea, under the pretext of military exercises. It After the annexation of Crimea by the legally notifies an exercise within a certain Russian Federation in 2014, Romania perimeter, but it is not necessary for this and Bulgaria became de facto neighbours exercise to actually take place. The area with the exclusive Russian economic is declared “dangerous for navigation” area. As such, disputes over the Black for commercial vessels and the entry in Sea hydrocarbon reserves may occur that particular area is being made only on between Russia and Romania especially, the own responsibility of the respective the estimated reserves of the latter being vessels. Many of them decide to embrace higher (about 200 bcm - billion cubic the perimeters announced to be the area meters).1 of military​​ exercises, which increases the Perimeters of the Black Sea in which the Russian Federation noti ed in 2019 the conduct of military exercises

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1 In order to highlight the significant dimensions number of days spent at sea and brings of the off-shore reserves of Romania, for reference, additional costs. Basically, freedom of in 2018, the gas consumption of Romania was of 10,9 bcm, of Republic of Moldova was of 2,5 bcm, navigation is impaired, and the prospect of Bulgaria was of 3,3 bcm and of Serbia was of 2,8 of sailing in an area with Russian military bcm. (Source: https://www.indexmundi.com)

86 The Warsaw Institute Review Energy and the Battle for the Black Sea

Gas pipelines

Conclusion The Energy Policy Group (EPG) is a In this way, Russia disrupts the movement Bucharest-based non-profit, independent of commercial vessels in the Black Sea, think-tank specializing in energy and affects the areas of real exercises of NATO climate policy, market analytics and states, limiting the movement capacity energy strategy, founded in February of Allied military vessels and tests the 2014. EPG’s regional focus is Eastern responsiveness of riparian NATO states. Europe and the Black Sea Basin. Its In addition, it creates obvious pressure in analyses, though, are also focused on the exclusive economic zone of Romania, wider trends and processes at global and where the prospects have shown the EU levels. existence of natural gas reserves. In this https://www.enpg.ro way, Russia wants to signal that it does not want to have “energy competitors” in New Strategy Center is a Romanian the Black Sea region, wishing to maintain think tank specialising in foreign, and strengthen its energy monopoly. defence and security policy, a The emergence of an alternative supplier non-partisan, non-governmental to Russia, even for a period of only 10 organisation. The Balkans and the Black years or for as long as natural gas can be Sea space are priority areas of interest for used as transit fuel according to “Green New Strategy Center, activities of which Deal”, entail the risk of diminishing also cover such subjects as national the economic and political influence of security, military modernization and Moscow in countries such as the Republic defence procurement, energy security, Moldova, Bulgaria or Serbia, which are cyber security and hybrid threats. heavily dependent on Russian natural. The https://www.newstrategycenter.ro/ issue of energy represents an important stake for Russia in the region and not only, thus remaining an important element for Laurențiu Pachiu, George Scutaru the strategic relevance of the Black Sea. March 2020

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Aggression or collective security: HOPE, another face of Iran Witold Repetowicz Iran is accused of conducting an aggressive foreign policy and being the biggest, and sometimes even the only, force destabilizing the Middle East. Iranian diplomacy, however, is trying to shape a completely different image of their country. One of its initiatives to serve this purpose is a project called Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE), which aims to establish a collective security dialogue in the West Asia sub-region. The feasibility of this plan is, however, deeply questionable.

JCPOA and the consequences good relations with all countries in the of US withdrawal from the region. In 2017, at the World Economic agreement Forum in Davos, he also suggested Already in 2016, Iran’s Foreign Affairs that Iran could even work with Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Saudi Arabia to solve regional problems. claimed that Iran wanted to build a At that time, Zarif was shining among regional security system and maintain the world’s elite. In essence, it was after

88 The Warsaw Institute Review Aggression or collective security: HOPE, another face of Iran

A young Iranian many walk past next to a wall painting of Iran’s © Abedin Taherkenareh (PAP/EPA) national flag in a street of the capital city of Tehran, January 10, 2020 the agreement on the Iranian nuclear deal i.e. the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed, and before Iran has tried to show Donald Trump’s sanctions policy against Iran was reinstated. that any military action

The Republicans have always been critical against it will meet with of the JCPOA – and Donald Trump was no exception here. Since he took office an adequate response. as US President, the atmosphere around Iran has started changing. The last of Trump approved the bombing of Iran in the tensions between the US and Iran response to Iran’s shooting down of a US lessening had been terminated when the drone. Nevertheless, the attack on Iran US withdrew from the JCPOA in May was canceled in the last minute. 2018 and reinstated sanctions on Iran in November 2018. An escalation of tensions In July, the United Kingdom and Iran involved several severe crises throughout seized each other’s tankers. International 2019. Iran was accused of the attacks on intervention in the Strait of Hormuz that several tankers in the Gulf of Oman in was announced at that time, involving the May and June. It went as so far as war introduction of military tanker convoys, nearby being at hand on 20 June when did not take place because it turned out

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Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at the presidential office in Tehran, Iran, 16 October 2019

90 The Warsaw Institute Review © Abedin Taherkenareh (PAP/EPA) Aggression or collective security: HOPE, another face of Iran to be simply unrealistic. In the end, the Bolton. A breakthrough was almost there United Kingdom released an Iranian at the end of September, during the UN tanker, and, in response, Iran did the summit, when Iranian President Hasan same with the British one. However, an Rouhani met French President Emanuel even more severe crisis soon followed, Macron and British Prime Minister when in September, drone attacks struck Boris Johnson. Macron also tried to get two oil processing facilities in Saudi Rouhani and Trump to meet, or at least Arabia, causing a dramatic (although to talk on the phone. The Pakistani Prime short-lived) decline in oil production. Minister Imran Khan also attempted Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed the attack, to act as an intermediary. It has also but Saudi Arabia and the USA accused been reported that Iran was ready to Iran of being responsible for it. renegotiate the JCPOA and introduce new control measures to its nuclear program. Through its actions, Iran has tried to However, the meeting did not take show that any military action against place because the Iranians did not trust it will meet with an adequate response – Trump and demanded that sanctions which was, in a way, a successful attempt. be lifted before the meeting and their Consequently, Trump continued its concessions, which Trump did not agree economic ‘maximum pressure’ policy, to. Consequently, another confrontation accompanied by political sanctions between the US and Iran happened in involving the designation of the Iranian December in Iraq, and the prospect of Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC) any talks was lost. as a terrorist organization or attempts to isolate the country at the international The problem with the renegotiation of level. Iran was unable to respond to the JCPOA is yet not how far Iran can go economic sanctions and considered them in controlling its nuclear program. There to be a symptom of some kind of war. was no evidence that Iran violated the In return, it has recognized the entire provisions of the agreement between its US Army as a terrorist organization. conclusion and termination by the US. However ridiculous it may sound; it was However, the aim was to force Iran to give a logical step from Iran’s perspective. up its ballistic missile program and its providing of military support to its allies Failed attempts to start new in the region. Concerning the former, negotiations Iran claims to have the right under US policy towards Iran has, however, international law to develop its missile encountered many restrictions. The capability as a form of self-defense. sanctions proved to be effective in Moreover, from Tehran’s perspective, it economic terms but hope that they would is other countries that are pursuing an lead to a revolution in Iran proved to be aggressive policy by destabilizing the vain. Protests were taking place, but they region and militarizing it by purchasing were not large enough to pose a threat weapons and creating bases of foreign to the Iranian political system. For this (mainly American) forces on its territory. reason, Trump started offering an olive branch towards Tehran, suggesting that The Middle East both countries could make a new deal. destabilization – mutual In September, he also unceremoniously accusations dismissed the biggest supporter of a Allegations that Iran’s actions destabilize military solution in relations with Iran, the Middle East are based on its former National Security Adviser John support for Yemen’s Houthis, Iraqi

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the Yemeni government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, which is disputed by other Not everyone in the entities. region perceives Iran as Not everyone in the region perceives Iran as a destabilizing force, and the a destabilizing force, and country, despite the efforts of the USA, is not internationally isolated. Attesting the country, despite the to this is Zarif’s intense diplomatic activity and the list of delegations efforts of the USA, is not at the Tehran Dialogue Forum in January, where Hormuz Peace Endeavor internationally isolated. was promoted. At a minimum, Iran maintains diplomatic relations with Oman, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Hashd a-Shaabi forces, the Bashar Syria, as well as Turkey, Afghanistan, al-Assad regime, Lebanese Hezbollah Pakistan, India, China, and, of course, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. From Russia. The list is longer, although the perspectives of the USA, Saudi understandably, different countries have Arabia, or Israel, in effect Iran is different motivations for keeping their supporting terrorism. However, the relations with Iran. Some states are outlook depends on interests, and the simply afraid that they could become recognition that Iran bears sole or even its targets in case of open conflict and major responsibility for, for example, therefore prefer to protect themselves. the war in Yemen, is objectively an This applies even to one of the pillars of extremely controversial thesis. In turn, the anti-Iranian bloc in the region – the Iran’s support for Assad’s regime or Iraqi United Arab Emirates, which in the Hashd a-Shaabi may be mostly linked to second half of 2019 began to de-escalate the fight against Al Qaeda or the Islamic its tensions with Iran and withdraw State, though this is contended by Iran’s from the war in Yemen. The reason for geopolitical rivals. In the case of Iraq, this was the three concerns that the Hashd a-Shaabi is part of the country’s UAE had. First of all, Yemen’s Houthi armed forces, and Iranian support directly signaled that the skyscrapers technically took place with the consent in UAE could be destroyed by rocket of the Iraqi authorities. There are several fire. The effectiveness of the attack on proxy wars in the Middle East, and Iran Saudi oil processing facilities was a takes part in some of them. However, warning light for Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Secondly, the UAE would have lost a lot Turkey, or Israel not only participate in on the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, them, but also openly conduct military and they preferred not to count on an operations outside their country. Some unrealistic promise of convoys. Thirdly, arguments suggest that there would also economic ties between Dubai and Iran seem to be an objective contradiction are intense despite sanctions and the between considering it legitimate to Iranian-Emirati proxy confrontation in support jihadist groups (fighting against, Yemen. In 2019, trade exchange between in any case, the government of Bashar Dubai and Iran was estimated at 10-15 al-Assad) and treating the support of billion USD, and the value of Iranian Yemen’s Houthi as equal to support for investments in Dubai amounted to about terrorism, based on the legitimacy of 300 billion USD.

92 The Warsaw Institute Review Aggression or collective security: HOPE, another face of Iran

The assassination of Suleimani – reactions in the region A lack of Iran’s isolation can also be seen What certainly was in the world’s reaction to the killing of General Qassem Suleimani. The most painful for Trump narrative seemed to be unambiguous in the West. Nevertheless, Tehran received was the reaction condolences not only from countries and organizations unequivocally associated of Turkey (NATO with the anti-American camp such as Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, Hezbollah, member) and Qatar Islamic Jihad and Hamas (in this case, it reflects the strengthening of Iran’s – home to the largest influence also outside the Shiite world), but also from countries and entities American base in the considered to be allies of the US and which are hosting American troops, region. such as Oman or the authorities of Iraqi Kurdistan, and of course Iraq hide that it wants to strengthen military itself. The killing of Suleimani was cooperation with Tehran against the condemned by Russia and China, as Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Iraq and well as by Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Kurdish YPG troops in Northern and Pakistan, among others. A whole Eastern Syria. It is also known that series of condolences came from General Suleimani had close relations Afghanistan, where US troops have with the head of the Turkish intelligence been present for 18 years, including Hakan Fidan. Moreover, prior to the from President Ashraf Ghani and his conclusion of the JCPOA, Erdogan and main competitor Abdullah Abdullah. several ministers of the then Turkish Furthermore, Hamid Karzai, the government allegedly had been involved country’s first president, brought to in secret gold trading with Iran, power by the US after overthrowing the circumventing international sanctions. Taliban, also participated in the Tehran Dialogue Forum, where he even accused Qatar found itself in an awkward Americans of destabilization and praised situation after Suleimani was killed, Iran’s decisive (at least in his view) role as it was from its territory that the drone in the Afghan peace process. that was behind the attack took off. That is why Qatar has not only expressed In the Middle East, only three countries its phone condolences or simply unequivocally supported the killing of condemned this attack. The following Suleimani: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and of day, the head of Qatar diplomacy course, Israel. What certainly was most Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin painful for Trump was the reaction of Jassim Al Thani flew to Tehran, and Turkey (NATO member) and Qatar – a considerable representation from the home to the largest American base in the Qatar MFA participated in the Tehran region. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Dialogue Forum, which began three Erdoğan expressed his condolences to days after Suleimani’s assassination. Hassan Rouhani. Erdogan’s Turkey is A few days later, the Qatari Emir Tamim far from joining any action against Iran. bin Hamad Al Thani flew to Tehran On the contrary, Ankara is not trying to himself.

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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu attend a news conference in Geneva, Switzerland, October 29, 2019.

Tehran Dialogue Forum – if Iran wants to improve its image in diplomatic success without the world through such events, it has concrete action to be more consistent in its PR policy The Tehran Dialogue Forum conference and liberalize visa regulations for was a large-scale event, although it was journalists. The conference was attended practically nonexistent in the Western by a considerable number of local media. This was due to Iran’s policy itself, journalists, as well as representatives of whose regulations make it impossible for all diplomatic missions present in Iran. foreign media to send a correspondent The event was also attended by Oman’s to such an event in an instant. Therefore, Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs,

94 The Warsaw Institute Review Aggression or collective security: HOPE, another face of Iran

only by a young expert in one of the local think tanks. Almost half of the guests, on the other hand, were Western European experts, some of whom were journalists, but were unable to perform their role due to Iranian restrictions.

The conference, therefore, was not a PR success, for which Iran itself is responsible. For this reason, this event did not contribute to the media promotion of Hormuz Peace Endeavor. It was, nevertheless, a de facto diplomatic success of Iran, and Minister Zarif in particular. This success was not so much in gaining regional support for Hormuz Peace Endeavor, but rather in demonstrating that Iran is far from being isolated. Concerning the initiative itself, the debate remained highly vague and theoretical and did not bring any tangible results.

Hormuz Peace Endeavor – collective security and cooperation The idea of the Hormuz Peace Endeavor, which, not unintentionally, has the acronym HOPE, was presented by President Hassan Rouhani to the UN General Assembly in September. Its aim is the creation of a collective security system in the West Asia region. It concerns, therefore, a broader region than just the Middle East, stretching from Pakistan to Turkey. It asserts © Valentin Flauraud (PAP/EPA) rhetoric that security ought to be guaranteed by respecting principles such as non-interference in each other’s China’s Special Envoy on the Middle East internal affairs, respect for territorial Issue, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs integrity, and respect for borders. Above of Iraq, former President of Afghanistan, all, however, it would be based on mutual as well as large representations from trust rather than armaments and the Pakistan, Qatar, and Kuwait. However, presence of foreign military bases. there was no diplomatic representation This is the essence of the whole idea and, from Syria and no representatives of at the same time, its biggest problem. Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi, Islamic Jihad, and other non-state allies of At the conference in Tehran, Zarif Tehran. In turn, Russia was represented sharply criticized the notion of “buying

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– primarily Iran’s main rival, Saudi Arabia – was moderate. Iran stresses that Abandoning the “buying the project is open to all, and it is willing to discuss it with Saudi Arabia. During security” system in the debate at the Tehran Forum, it was also argued that abandoning the “buying favor of the proposed security” system in favor of the proposed “collective security” concept requires “collective security” mutual trust, which is not abundant in the region. concept requires mutual The foundations of HOPE may somewhat trust, which is not resemble the Westphalian order introduced after the Thirty Years’ War abundant in the region. in 17th century Europe. It is attractive for many Middle Eastern regimes not to interfere with each other in their internal security”, consisting of the dependence affairs, and thus to allow other states of countries in the region on foreign to suppress any opposition movements (mainly American) military aid, namely ruthlessly – noting that both Saudi the sale of weapons and the presence of Arabia and Iran are accused of such military bases. In Iran’s view, this kind interference in the region. It should be of “buying” not only does not provide recalled that in 2011, the so-called Arab security but also makes people dependent Spring affected almost all countries of on a “protector” who is continuously the region. Individual actors, however, intensifying the threat in order for the generally applied double standards when “protected” to need help. According to they were “supporting democracy” in Iran, the US military presence in the the case of their opponents, and “legal region has not led to the elimination authorities” in the case of themselves of any problems but has only worsened or their supporters. After all, nobody them. It is therefore intended to serve as in the region gained anything, and proof that the countries of the area must almost everyone lost. Is it enough for break with the philosophy of “buying regional regimes to conclude that it is security”. time to change policies and get along?

The participants of the conference The political deputy at the Ministry of generally hinted signs of agreeing with Foreign Affairs of Iran Abbas Araghchi Iran’s idea, but discussions on details went even further and compared were avoided. What was criticized by HOPE to European integration or the name was only Israel and the USA and Association of Southeast Asian Nations the international military presence in (ASEAN), adding that the countries Iraq (because the Iraqis themselves of the region can benefit from criticize it). However, the question of the cooperation on such levels as nuclear presence of American military bases in energy. Given that the Iranian nuclear any other country was not raised, and program is a bone of contention, this was yet almost all the countries in the region a relatively symptomatic statement. that participated in this conference have them. Even the criticism of the Witold Repetowicz countries of the region that were absent March 2020

96 The Warsaw Institute Review Giants Built on the Fundamentals of Economic Patriotism Editorial Team of the Warsaw Institute Review A conscious choice of domestic products and services by consumers can be a driving force for the rapid development of the economy, building synergies between local companies, and the expansion of these companies onto global markets. Many national companies created with Polish capital are developing their businesses in Poland. These companies, having conducted their market activities, developed their new products and services in Poland, have meanwhile modernized, and then have proceeded to bring considerable profits both for their owners and for the national economy.

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Drutex production center

xceptionally triumphant in and compete with other, often national the 21st century, globalisation entities. Despite the high expansiveness continues to have an of foreign enterprises and free trade with indisputablyesubstantial, most developed countries, economic Eif not dominating, impact on the patriotism and its role in building a internationalisation of national conscious society and economy should economies. It makes the world witness to still be an important subject of analysis. a seemingly relentless increase in trade This is all the more so since it plays the network density and market integration. role of a connecting element not only of The effect is that whilst globalisation national economies but also has its obvious advantages, it also has of Polish society and democracy. Even some negative consequences for certain though there has been an increase in sectors of the economies of individual globalisation for several decades now, countries that have also been observed. it is not farfetched to argue that the most Since Poland’s political transformation affluent countries in the world share in 1989 and the conversion of its their common element – an economic economic model to a free market patriotism that consists of trade economy, there has been a significant patriotism and consumer patriotism1. increase in the number of companies developing their businesses inyPoland. Globalisation After some time, these companies began The market has grown in importance in to expand their businesses overseas the last century, whereas it could seem that and sell their products and services the role of national or regional policy has outside of Poland. Meanwhile, foreign 1 R. Zgorzelski, Modern Patriotism, Warsaw Institute, enterprises can simultaneously use the 8 March 2017, https://warsawinstitute.org/modern- opportunity to enter the Polish market patriotism/ [10.04.2020].

98 The Warsaw Institute Review Giants Built on the Fundamentals of Economic Patriotism

An economic patriotism that consists of trade patriotism and consumer patriotism.

entrepreneurs. This interest nowadays is the interest of the Polish entrepreneur expressed by means of taking care of domestic companies, including one-person businesses, micro, small, and medium enterprises, as well as big companies that boost the Polish economy and stimulate smaller businesses.

Trade patriotism Trade patriotism is defined as all actions © drutex.pl taken by the public and private sector to help the economy of the home country in been somewhat marginalised in the age the wide array of aspects relevant to trade. of globalisation. Since some companies in Genuine and longer-lasting progress and the world have annual profits many times successes of entrepreneurship can only higher than the GDP of entire countries, be achieved if governments and public it is evident that they influence the economy administrations take appropriate steps, of certain nations – and the policy of a both independently and symbiotically. given country often may become second The vital focal point in this context, not to priority to economic goals. Thus, taking be underestimated, is the simultaneously into account globalisation, for the national simple and complex issue of raising economy, patriotism is a crucial element awareness of the need for promoting of an individual’s identity. After all, it does national goods – both on the national constitute part of a particular national and international markets. There are group or state. This important idea of a wide ranging macro-economic models community is also adjointly connected and schools of thought on this, however, with – albeit varying degrees from country it could be argued that seemingly, in to country – notions orbital around history, general, there would seem to be a more a common ethnic background, cultural mainstream consensus that, as opposed to heritage, origin, shared values, the memory complete laissez-faire, that Governments of heroes, symbols, the anthem, and have the responsibility, and should, firstly, national holidays – and everything that maintain the appropriate conditions for defines the nation-state. entrepreneurs so they can create and develop domestic companies. After all, Since the times of Adam Smith, people’s this is where people tend to look to first economic activity has translated into a for help and point the blame in the event simple search for their own interest – which of its absence, not the multinational is to bring wealth and prosperity to all corporations. Therefore, secondly, and

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nationalism’ has been described as by its critics. Economic, and in particular, trade patriotism is hence about encouraging and enabling the economic functionality of a country’s entities in ways that are also beneficial to the country’s partners, rather than excessively obsessive protectionist or trade war-like measures. One does not forget, whilst being proud of the goods and services of one’s own country, that those of foreign entities also influence the economic growth ofnthat country, provided these businesses function transparently and in good faith. Therefore, creating artificial competitive barriers is not a solution; on the contrary, such competition is necessary and ought to be both enabled and encouraged. National economies are fuelled by companies trying to compete globally with their products or services. The success of such companies should stimulate other smaller entities – ones that would fail without the support of economic giants or governments. In all developed countries around the world, for example, the United States, Japan, or Germany, the state supports national companies. It cooperates with them, understanding that an essential goal of internal economic policy is to build a strong group of entrepreneurs and – as © Archiwum Kalbar (PAP) a result – guarantee the development Zgrupowania AK "Radosław" rondo, Warsaw Poland, 02.02.2020. of their own societies.

most particularly in the trade patriotism Consumer patriotism context, Governments should avidly The notion of consumer patriotism support the promotion of their products. is based on the conscious purchasing attitudes of consumers – above all, Such an economic strategy could be the awareness of benefits of choosing crucial for every well-developed and buy or invest in domestic products or developing country alike, albeit likely to services, where such possibilities exist. manifest in different ways. A significant The latter fuel economic growth, reduce advantage of trade patriotism, and this unemployment, create new jobs, and allow must be underlined, is that it does not companies to compete in international prevent or directly or indirectly inhibit markets. It is essential to understand that foreign entities from making their consumers can contribute to the wealth investments in the domestic market. of the whole society by making individual It is neither zero-sum nor a rejection of purchasing decisions. Profits generated globalisation, as sometimes ‘economic by individual local producers directly

100 The Warsaw Institute Review Giants Built on the Fundamentals of Economic Patriotism

© drutex.pl International Construction and Architecture Fair BUDMA 2020 translate into increased tax revenue for the state budget, which benefits all citizens. In In these specific practise, Embassies and their respective trade departments or programmes instances, paradoxically, contribute to encouraging the purchase of goods and services originating or globalisation would have associated with their country, like for instance, the ‘Australian Made’ campaign naturally contributed to and website. Consumer patriotism is orbital around highlighting the positive increased localisation. aspects of goods and services coming from or associated to a particular country, not in any way demeaning others. national or local goods. These consumers often treat it as a responsibility and moral Some individual consumers, however, are duty to support local producers and reasonably wary of some negative effects service providers as the latter emphasize associated with the spread of globalisation. responsibility towards the community and They consider global trends and economic the role of social capital. In these specific and social influences, the aim of which is instances, where the effects of globalisation to develop international brands as harmful are more negative than the limitations to the local economy. Also, in many cases, without it, paradoxically, globalisation they take action reflecting their attitude would have naturally contributed to towards, for example, foreign companies, increased localisation. Approaching this goods, or services. The example of such both alternatively at simultaneously, this is efforts is consumer ethnocentrism, also apparent in specific scenarios where increasingly emerging among consumers the benefits of localised economic activity, as the opposite of globalisation. It is such as relatively higher degrees of self- reflected in their preference to buy sufficiency in a community, outweigh the

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the basis of the state’s economy since they contribute to the state budget funds and guarantee the protection of Polish tradition and culture. Naturally, competition is important because it increases the quality of products or services offered. As it turns out, many Polish companies can compete with foreign ones in terms of quality, price, or attractiveness of their goods. What is more, Polish products and services are sometimes presented as model solutions all over the world.

Economic patriotism is perfectly illustrated by the example of the Polish company Drutex, a tycoon in the window manufacturing market. The company set up 35 years ago in the small town of Bytow, and today employs more than three thousand people, has several production facilities totalling over 11 ha in one location and its prized technologies. Drutex not only produces and distributes products all over the world but also hires Polish citizens and creates its research programmes and IT solutions. The company uses its own know-how. It has also built some up-to-date machines and prototype of smart windows in-house, which are an excellent example of the company’s strength and independent policy. This © Krzysztof Mystkowski / KFP allows for extensive development of Leszek Gierszewski, the founder and president of Drutex company the company not only in terms of its technical and production potential, but benefits of globalisation. In this context, also maximisation of its profits. What is an element of patriotism is considered crucial is that the company's activity also advantageous for the success of businesses generates enormous benefits for the Polish supporting the development of the society economy – it contributes to the reduction of in said country. unemployment, supports other companies and entire sectors of Poland’s economy, Polish companies with Polish and generates direct inflows to the state capital are doing well budget. Drutex, just like other large Polish The Polish market, due to Poland’s companies, also creates awareness among membership in the European Union, citizens who, in their consumer choices, open borders, and numerous customs prefer products manufactured on the agreements with other countries, is filled domestic market. with foreign companies transferring their income abroad. However, what should be Clothing and footwear are dominant emphasised is that Polish companies are segments of the economy with the Polish

102 The Warsaw Institute Review Giants Built on the Fundamentals of Economic Patriotism capital in Poland. Such companies as CCC, asked about the reasons for choosing a Big Star, Bytom, Badura, Cropp, Reserved, Polish or foreign product, the respondents Gino Rossi, Lasocki, Vistula, Wólczanka, or indicated a few of them. In the case Ryłko and Wojas have their shops in every of choosing Polish products, the most major shopping centre not only in Poland frequent reasons were habituation (61% of but also abroad. Similarly to Drutex, these respondents), predilection for the brand companies send their products, among (52%), support for the domestic economy others, to EU countries or to the United (45%), or preference for Polish products States, which not only increases revenues (45%). In the case of choosing foreign from product sales but also promotes the products, 44% of respondents stated that Polish economy. The quality of services such a choice reflects the prestige of the offered by Drutex is appreciated all over the owner; 43% could not explain the reason world and confirmed by the international for their choice, and 33% of respondents certificates and technical documents. declared that they prefer foreign products Thanks to the cooperation with almost over Polish ones. 4 thousand international trade partners, Drutex company has been implementing According to the author of the article the most prestigious projects. The windows Globalizacja a patriotyzm ekonomiczny produced in Bytow are used, among others, polskich konsumentów [‘Globalisation in large hotel designs in the United States, and the economic patriotism of Polish automotive centres in Mexico, or housing consumers’], “the promotion of domestic and commercial estates in Germany, Italy, goods makes it possible to escape from France or Sweden. It is worth mentioning global patterns of behaviour and bulk that the brand ambassadors were world- purchasing. The transformation of the famous soccer players such as Jakub Polish economy initiated in 1989 has Błaszczykowski, Philipp Lahm and Andrea created new prospects for the economic Pirlo. The positive opinions about the development of the country and new quality of products and services provided conditions for the economic situation of by this company are not only a profit for business entities as well as for households, Drutex itself – they also guarantee the which, to support the domestic economy, quality of Polish brands as a whole. The should in today's reality strongly support example of Drutex shows a comprehensive Polish production, Polish products, implementation of economic patriotism and Polish services provided by Polish because it is a company with Polish capital entrepreneurs and employees.” which constantly improves its domestic and international activities, and thus fuels Help from the synergy of the Polish economy. Companies that act Polish companies according to such principles nourish the Helping, especially in times of crisis, Polish market and the tax system of the seems to be particularly difficult for Polish state, leaving millions of złotys for businesses now forced to cope with its the development of the economy, the social effects and mitigate negative market trends. system, or local infrastructure investments. Companies are saving their finances, jobs, and basically trying to survive in Economic patriotism of Polish changing realities. However, the doctrine consumers of economic patriotism and responsibility The research carried out by Katarzyna for the domestic economy makes assisting Włodarczyk from the Institute of others an important task for responsible Management and Marketing of the companies. As part of the fight against University of Szczecin shows that when the global coronavirus pandemic,

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Official logotype of “We are together we help” action.

entrepreneurs operating in Poland decided and a country struggling with a deadly to help Polish hospitals and patients virus. Initiatives such as ‘Helping. Together’ by organizing the “Helping. Together” represents a huge potential of our national initiative. Its initiator, Leszek Gierszewski, champions, who can demonstrate their President and founder of Drutex - a ability to manage the crisis and rise in company that, thanks to the development solidarity above divisions, not only to of strong foundations, have not yet return to business but above all to help experienced the negative effects of the crisis those who need it most. and cultivates good practices in the field of the corporate social responsibility (CSR). Conclusions Economic patriotism constitutes an integral The action started with a noble gesture part of the economy and is progressively of the company, which donated 1 million increasing its existence and importance zlotys in March to renovate and supply four in the world. Conscious consumerism of Polish hospitals. Now, it’s already over 1,5 developed societies allows them to decide mln PLN and it’s not the last word that the on their purchasing choices, taking into company said. It has also launched its own account both their economic and patriotic production of safety helmets which are values. As far as state institutions are than forwarded to the medical staff all over concerned, they provide the best conditions Poland. Another big companys, for example for the entrepreneurs to make sure the LPP, Budimex, Posnet, CCC Posnet donated development of domestic entrepreneurship a lot of necessarys protective equipment for takes place smoothly and without obstacles. hospitals – only in March they purchased All these efforts will not go unnoticed, and thousands protective masks, medical suits, will be rewarded – it is the entrepreneurs protective visors, and portable ventilators who may then promote the country abroad for the hospitals. So far, 70 companies and bring measurable profits in the form of taking part in ‘Helping. Together’ collected taxes that will serve the state, and in turn, over 24 million zlotys which have been circularly contribute to the wellbeing of transferred to health care facilities, people Polish citizens and residents in Poland, and affected by the coronavirus pandemic, as such, elevate the position of Poland and and non-governmental organizations. its security in the world. The initiative was supported by key Polish companies, businesses with international Editorial Team of the reach, and smaller companies, sharing a Warsaw Institute Review sense of responsibility for their compatriots March 2020

104 The Warsaw Institute Review Stanislav Szukalski: The Human Riddle Daniel Pogorzelski A plethora of creatives from Eastern and Central Europe electrified the arts world in the first half of the 20th century. In a part of the globe where the legacy of empires was profound and where the social order would upend itself repeatedly until the onset of the Cold War, mutiny was in the air. Conventions were abandoned, while innovative new perspectives and techniques caught the eye of a new audience. Previously shunned as a backwater of Europe, critics began to take notice. While perhaps not given the same attention as artisans from certain other countries, Polish visual artists nonetheless found themselves in a better position to highlight their artistic achievements than they had in decades.

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Katyn bronze © Archives Szukalski

ith a history of powerful be said of Stanislav Szukalski, a dynamic forces pushing Poles figure full of passion and fire whose work to leave their native exudes its own unique take on Polish lands, it should come as history and Slavic folklore. Wlittle surprise that sons and daughters of Poland would weave themselves into the The aim of this piece is not to serve art scenes of other countries. Kazimir as an exhaustive history on Stanislav Malevich, Mela Muter, and Balthus are Szukalski, of which there are several all noted painters whose Polish origin excellent books in both English and is often overlooked or absent in the Polish, as well as a recently released discussion of their art. The same cannot documentary film “Struggle: The Life

106 The Warsaw Institute Review Stanislav Szukalski: The Human Riddle and Lost Art of Szukalski” on Netflix. Dionizy Szukalski was outraged by Instead, it is to look at certain episodes the injustices built into the European in the early life of the artist and order that left Poles without a country examine how they subsequently after Napoleon’s defeat. This state of affected Stanislav as well as his art. affairs drove Dionizy and many other political activists of his generation to In some ways, Szukalski’s biography be extremely determined to overthrow seems beyond belief. A regular at the the imperial status quo of Europe at this infamous Dil Pickle Club during the time. It was an arrangement Chicago Renaissance, Stanislav would which Dionizy was driven to upset. become embroiled in one of the largest art scandals of interwar Poland. Being at odds with the establishment The artist’s earthly path intersected in territories under foreign occupation with the likes of some of the brightest was not easy, and the family had to minds in Poland and the United States, relocate again and again. Shortly before such as Hollywood scriptwriter Ben Szukalski’s birth, the family had fled for Hecht, painter Jacek Malczewski, a short time to Brazil, where his sister and actor Leonardo Di Caprio. Sure Alfreda was born before returning to of his own talents, Szukalski created Russian occupied Poland. Financial prodigious amounts of work, only struggles led Dionizy to leave his family to see much of it destroyed during in Warta for South Africa a year after World War II. Yet despite being an Stanislav’s birth in 1893. After working inspired creator, he was his own worst there for a few years, the pull of the enemy. Szukalski’s verbal attacks on righteous fight against overwhelming others in the art world ultimately odds led Szukalski’s father to take up denied him what he craved for most; arms in the Second Boer War against an admiring audience. the British. Dionizy fought alongside the Boers until their defeat in 1902, after A World In Need of Revolution which he returned to his family and Szukalski was born in the town of Warta together they moved to Gidle, in 1893. A small Polish municipality a village within the Russian Partition dating back to the 13th century, the of Poland. They wouldn’t stay there for artist came of age when his birthplace long however, as within a few years the had been a part of the Russian Empire family would cross the Atlantic Ocean for decades. Later in life, Szukalski paid and settle in Chicago, another hotbed of tribute to his hometown with one of his activism and discontent at this time. artistic aliases as “Stach z Warty”, which translates into English as Stan A Real City from Warta. Although the young Stanislav Szukalski was reputed to have produced small It is impossible to understand an artist sculptures in wood and stone for his and their creative work without first peers in Gidle, it was in Chicago where getting a clear idea of their psychology. the refining of his artistic inclinations In the case of Szukalski, we can see began to take shape. Even his later how the life of the father he idolized schooling in Cracow’s prestigious influenced the future sculptor’s Academy of Fine Arts was inspired by worldview. Stanislav’s father Dionizy a comment from Polish sculptor Antoni was a blacksmith by profession, Popiel to Szukalski while visiting the but he was also a revolutionary. Windy City.

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Mermaid of Warsaw © Archives Szukalski

108 The Warsaw Institute Review Stanislav Szukalski: The Human Riddle

Blacksmith Father © Archives Szukalski

The city was simultaneously ripe with brought to slaughter in the city’s famous grit while in the midst of an artistic Union Stockyards. Rudyard Kipling ferment, the beginning of an era when poignantly alluded to this cruelty in some regarded Chicago as the “cultural his quote “I have struck a city - a real capital” of the United States. The city - and they call it Chicago... I urgently Chicago School of Architecture and desire never to see it again. It is inhabited a wealth of literary talent are just two by savages.” facets of a host of creativity coming out of the “City of Big Shoulders” at It was in Chicago where Szukalski’s this time. Yet Chicago could also be father died, the victim of an automobile a cruel place where people sometimes accident. Stanislav came upon his were treated little better than the cattle father’s mangled body, and carried

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his corpse to the morgue. Some have city, owing to the strength of its Polish theorized that the horribly distorted community, imbued in him a strong figures in some of Szukalski’s sculptures attachment to the culture of his country draw their inspiration from that grisly of origin? Does Szukalski’s search death scene. for an indigenous American sculptural form not parallel the philosophy The influence of his revolutionary father of Frank Lloyd Wright and the Prairie is perhaps best captured during an School of Architecture? This is certainly exhibit by Szukalski at the Art Institute a topic in need of further research. of Chicago, an event which went awry, after the artist was criticized for calling Conclusion out British Imperialism. Given that his Though his life may have straddled father had fought against the British two continents, Szukalski’s artistic Empire as they tried to expand their influences drew from all over the world. reach over the African continent and It’s a point which if he were still alive, likely touching a raw nerve since this the artist would likely deny. As Eva and was only a short time Dionizy’s death, Donat Kirch succinctly characterized Szukalski flew into a rage. Instead of Szukalski, “Like many other self- the art being taken down as the gallery assertive avant-garde artists, he chose demanded, Stanislav destroyed his work radical dogmatism to express his views and had to be thrown out of the Chicago and attract attention. His dreams, Art Institute. career, and life were to be realized by way of perpetual conflict with all those who Several motifs and philosophical quirks dared to disagree even on the smallest which Szukalski is known for can be details of his art and views.” traced back to his time in Chicago. The death of Stanislav’s father was When asked whether Szukalski’s art quickly followed by the deterioration will finally gain the kind of mass of his financial situation. Forced to reverence Stanislav sought during his work in the city’s meatpacking industry life, Polish art historian Maciej Miezian butchering livestock, Szukalski was answered by sharing a conversation surrounded by other Slavic and Baltic he had with Szukalski’s friend Marian peoples who spoke different, yet Konarski. Konarski, who had faced similar languages to his native Polish, repression in his artistic career because likely stirring Szukalski’s lifelong of his associations with Szukalski, pursuit of searching for the common predicted that when Stanislav’s linguistic roots which later manifested detractors eventually pass away, the in his philosophy of Zermatism next generation of fans would finally and “rediscovery” of the human be able to popularize Szukalski’s works protolanguage. unimpeded. Recent events seem to suggest that may very well be the case. Chicago ties together many of the threads which come together in Szukalski’s art. Is it a coincidence that Szukalski’s early works are so deeply Daniel Pogorzelski imbued with Impressionism, and that March 2020 the Art Institute of Chicago possesses one of the largest collections in that style outside of France? Or that the

110 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyń Massacre – Mechanisms of Genocide Katarzyna Utracka 80 years ago, on March 5, 1940, a decision was made at the highest level of the Soviet authorities, from which the NKVD murdered nearly 22 thousand Polish citizens. Among them were prisoners of camps in Kozielsk, Starobielsk, and Ostashkow, captured after Soviet Union’s aggression on Poland, and people in NKVD prisons in the USSR-occupied eastern parts of Poland. The fallen constituted the nation’s elite; its defensive, intellectual, and creative potential. Murdering them was an attack on ‘Polishness’ and the Polish nation; aimed to prevent a sovereign Polish state from being rebuilt.

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Bringing to Poland the ashes of Polish officers © Teodor Walczak (PAP) murdered in Katyn. Warsaw, Poland, April 5, 1989.

Hitler-Stalin Pact Poland, the Red Army attacked Poland On August 23, 1939, Joachim von from the east, implementing the Ribbentrop, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. Meeting little of the Third Reich, came to Moscow. resistance from the units of the Border Together with Vyacheslav Molotov, Protection Corps and few military units, the People’s Commissioner for Foreign it occupied more and more towns at a Affairs of the Soviet Union, they signed fast pace. Because of the “stabbing in a bilateral non-aggression pact. the back” with lacking support of allies, A secret protocol, which was attached a decision was made to evacuate the to this document, included a plan for highest authorities of the Republic of the partition of Poland by the Third Poland abroad. At the same time, the Reich and the Soviet Union. The worst Commander-in-Chief issued an unclear fears were realised – Poland’s eastern directive ordering the troops to get to and western neighbors decided to take Hungary or Romania and avoid fighting the freedom of Poles away again. For the Red Army. However, some Polish the price of seemingly smaller territorial units and garrisons decided to take part in benefits, Hitler received a guarantee of uneven battles against the aggressor – but Moscow’s neutrality in the upcoming given the huge disproportion, the disaster military conflict with the West. was inevitable. The independent Polish state was eliminated, and its territory On September 17, 1939, just about two seized by the Third Reich and the Soviet weeks after the Third Reich attacked Union.

112 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyń Massacre – Mechanisms of Genocide

In Soviet captivity “in a special procedure and giving them After the aggression on Poland, the the maximum penalty – execution”. Soviets took captive or arrested from He also requested that “cases should be 240 to 250 thousand Poles, including handled without calling the arrested about 10 thousand officers of the Polish and without presenting charges, Army. Contrary to all international decision to end the investigation, conventions, they handed prisoners over and indictment” (Andrzej Krzysztof to the NKVD security services – as the Kunert, Katyn. Ocalona pamięć [“Saved counterrevolutionary element. Memory”], Warsaw 2010, p. 130). The verdict was signed by members of the Three special camps were set up: in Politburo of the Central Committee Starobielsk and Kozielsk – for officers, of the Communist Party of the Soviet senior state and military officials, and Union, Kliment Voroshilov, Vyacheslav in Ostashkow – mainly for soldiers Molotov, and Anastas Mikoyan. The of the Border Protection Corps and acceptance of Mikhail Kalinin and officers of the State Police, intelligence Lazar Kaganovich was also confirmed and counterintelligence, the Prison by adding their names to the margin Guard, and the Border Guard. At the of the document. On the same day, the end of November 1939, a total of over Politburo formally accepted Beria’s 14.5 thousand Polish prisoners of war proposal. were in these camps. The conditions were difficult – overcrowding, lack of Meetings discussing the subject were water and food. Each of the prisoners held in Moscow in the following days, was inquired about their political views, and on 14 March 1940, the heads of professional position, assets, even the regional directorates of Smolensk, associations with foreign countries, and Kalinin, and Kharkiv regions and foreign language skills. The network military commanders of the NKVD of informers provided information regional directorates were ordered to about life in the camp. Many months of murder Polish prisoners of war. interrogation and indoctrination of the A week later, Beria issued an order prisoners brought little effect. Only a few “About unloading NKVD prisons”, broke down. The vast majority did not, which really translated into murdering openly manifesting their patriotism. Poles detained in NKVD prisons in the area of pre-war eastern provinces In the last weeks of 1939, NKVD officers of Poland. Among them were retired accelerated the investigation. Their files officers, people involved in the state were forwarded to the Special Council, service, government officials, local the task of which was to decide on the government officials, prosecutors, fate of the POWs and prisoners held by judges, political activists, landowners, the NKVD. and others of a similar standing.

Death sentence Murderous strategy Józef Stalin personally decided to The implementation of the plan to murder murder Polish prisoners of war, at the Polish prisoners of war was carried request of the People’s Commissioner out according to detailed instructions of Internal Affairs of the Soviet Union, of the NKVD. The Soviets wanted the Lavrentiy Beria. In an extensive note whole action to be carried out quickly of 5 March 1940, the head of the NKVD and efficiently – so that as few people called for the case to be considered as possible knew about it. The killing

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machine started up with momentum. of two. We were put into the prison On 16 March 1940, the NKVD wagons that had been already waiting for investigating units began to complete the us. They have packed everyone in, eight documents of future victims. Meanwhile, men in each compartment. They locked afraid of the prisoners’ rebellion, the barred corridor doors with special locks. security apparatus of the camp focused NKVD soldiers were guarding from the on deceiving them. A massed and well- corridor. We were just like wild animals thought-out disinformation campaign in cages...”2. had the anticipated effect. The prisoners were not aware of their fate until the last At the same time, the action of moment. They learned the terrible truth “unloading” the prisons of the so-called only in the Katyń Forest or in NKVD Western Belarus and Western Ukraine was prison cells. One of the Starobielsk prepared. The arrested were transported survivors, Józef Czapski, recalled: “There to prisons in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Minsk, and was no way of figuring out what were Kherson. The Special Council of the the selection criteria for the groups of NKVD drew up “death lists” – shooting us sent away from the camp. Their age, orders, which were then approved by years of birth, ranks, professions, social the so-called “NKVD troika”: Vsevolod backgrounds, political beliefs were all Merkulov, Bogdan Kobulov, and Leonid mixed. Every subsequent batch was Bashtakov. Executioners were trained in another contradiction to our guesses. We killing people with a shot in the back of all matched only in one thing: each of us the head. Moscow also appointed people to waited feverishly for that hour when they supervise their work. announced a new list of those leaving. Maybe this time it would finally be our The massacre turn to be on the list [...]. Standing on the The first “death letters” reached the great church stairs, the commandant bid camps in Kozelsk, Starobielsk, and farewell to the groups of those leaving Ostashkow in early April, and to the with a smile full of promises. You’re going prisons in Minsk, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and out there, he told one of us, where Kherson around 20 April 1940. The same I would love to go myself.”1. procedure occurred in torture houses in Kharkiv and Kalinin. NKVD officers who Prisoners were transported from the participated in the executions mentioned camps to the places of execution – their details in the testimonies. prisoners from Kozielsk were transported Executions were carried out only at night, by trains to Smolensk, from Starobielsk in strict secrecy. The prisoners were to Kharkiv, from Ostashkow to Kalinin brought to the cellars, where, in a solitary (now Tver). This is how Zdzisław and muted room, they were murdered Peszkowski, a survivor from Starobielsk, with a shot in the back of the head. who later become a chaplain of the Katyń Those who resisted were tied up. The Families, remembered his departure from Nagant revolver was initially used to the camp: “They searched us thoroughly carry out the executions. Later on, the and took from us any sharp tools like executioners started using German knives, scissors, razor blades we had. Walther 7.65 due to its reliability and Our photographs were checked, and we high performance. The shooting ended were led out of the camp gate in groups at dawn. The head of the Board of the

1 Józef Czapski, Wspomnienia starobielskie 2 Sprawa Katynia [“The Katyn Case”], [“Memoirs of Starobielsk”], Rome 1945, p. 45. ed. Krzysztof Komorowski, Warsaw 2010, p. 44.

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The Late President of the Republic of Poland, Lech Kaczyński © Paweł Supernak (PAP) during the ceremony honoring the victims of the Katyn massacre. Warsaw, Poland, November 9, 2007

District NKVD in Kalinin, Major Gravediggers were replaced by excavators Dmitry Stepanovich Tokarev, recalled that leveled the ground. The burial places of years later: “It was already on the first the victims were for years inaccessible even day. So we went. And then I saw all this to the local residents. horror. We came there. After a few minutes Blokhin [one of the NKVD officers who We know much less about the execution in came from Moscow] put on his special Katyn – in this case, our knowledge comes clothing: a brown leather cap, a long leather mainly from exhumations. brown apron, leather brown gloves with The shells found above the death pits cuffs above the elbows. It made a huge indicate that the executions took place impression on me – I saw the executioner! directly there. However, before the victims The charges were not read to the convicts. were sent to the execution site, they were After being dragged to the cell, the victim directed to a villa, which in the 1930s was immediately killed by a shot in the back served as a resort for the most deserving of the head” (Sprawa Katynia..., p. 50). NKVD officers. This building was where In the morning, the corpses of the the searches were conducted. Perhaps murdered were transported by trucks it was also where some executions were to solitary places with already dug pits. carried out. Those who resisted had their

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Exhumation of the corpses of Polish officers. © NAC Katyn, Russia, 1943.

hands bound. Some of them had coats put of its leaders and intellectual elite. on their head tied with a rope, the end of In the opinion of the Soviet authorities, which was connected with a knot on their Polish POWs, who were manifesting hands. The prisoners were then reloaded their patriotism, were “irredeemable into prison cars without windows and enemies of the Soviet authorities and are transported to the execution site. not likely to improve”. For this reason, they were to be murdered. The Soviet Several Soviet documents give different authorities decided that this move would numbers of people killed, although facilitate the future governance of the the differences are small. According to Polish-Soviet Republic. Some researchers the note of the head of KGB Alexander believe that the decision to “finally Shelepin to Nikita Khrushchev of 3 solve” the case of Polish prisoners of war March 1959, a total of 21,857 Polish was made in the name of the declared POWs and prisoners were shot, including cooperation of German and Soviet 7,305 people detained in prisons. security services in the fight against Some researchers believe that the Polish independence aspirations. The numbers are understated. Only 395 coincidence in time with the AB-Aktion prisoners escaped mass murder – from (Extraordinary Operation of Pacification) three special camps they were taken conducted by the Germans and aimed at to the camp in Yukhnov. the Polish intelligentsia does not seem to be unintentional. Motives for the crime The reason for murdering Polish officers Victims and executioners could have been the desire to take revenge Among the Polish POWs held in special for the defeat in the Polish-Soviet war camps in Kozelsk, Starobielsk and of 1920 or the necessity to arrange the Ostashkow were professional officers of camps for Finns, who were taken prisoner the Polish Army and State Police as well in the ongoing war with their neighbour. as reservists. In “death transports” to The most probable motive, however, was Smolensk and Kharkiv were: 12 generals, the idea of depriving the Polish nation 1 rear admiral, 77 colonels,

116 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyń Massacre – Mechanisms of Genocide

197 lieutenants-colonels, 541 majors, spring of 1942, Polish forced laborers 1 441 captains, 6 061 lieutenants, found out about the execution of Poles second lieutenants, cavalry masters, from the local population. In April they and warrant officers, and 18 chaplains started searching the forest on their and other clergymen. According to own. In one of the suggested places, Polish historians, half of the then officer they discovered a corpse in Polish Army corps of the Polish Army were killed. uniforms. They built a birch cross and In the NKVD prisons of so-called notified the German authorities of the Western Belarus and Western Ukraine, finding, but the latter did not show the Soviets detained officers who were any interest in the case. It was not not mobilized in September 1939, civil until February 1943 that the German servants and local government officials. secret field police started an efficient Many of the murdered were high-class investigation. On 18 February, the area specialists in various fields, among them indicated by the Poles was partly dug up university professors, engineers, priests, and several mass graves were identified. doctors, lawyers, officials, poets, writers On 11 April 1943, the German news – the intellectual elite of Poland. agency Transocean News Service was the first to report the discovery in Katyń Many employees of the central – a place that became a symbol of this apparatus, regional directorates in atrocious crime. Smolensk, Kharkiv, and Kalinin, as well as NKVD convoy and military units, Playing with Katyn participated in the Katyn genocide. The Germans revealed the Katyń The perpetrators were the most massacre after the defeat in Stalingrad. experienced torturers from Lubyanka They believed that the discovery of and local NKVD prisons, trained in graves in Katyń would be an excellent killing with one shot. Some of them are opportunity to divide the anti-Hitler known by name. One of the documents coalition. The announcement of the that were not destroyed was Lavrentiy German news agency about the finding Beria’s order, released on 26 October of the graves gave rise to massive 1940, rewarding 125 people “for the propaganda. With Hitler’s order, this proper performance of special tasks”. case was given international publicity. These people included all ranks from All over Europe, the radio stations generals to the lowest NKVD officers. controlled by the Germans reported the The torturers remained silent for years to discovery of the graves. The exhumation come, carefully hiding the secret. Some was attended by journalists, a delegation of them managed to make a career, but of the Polish Red Cross and an many of them started to drink and died, international committee of pathologists. one by one, within a few years of the Six days after the announcement of crime. Some of them committed suicide. the Transocean News Service, Joseph Goebbels, Reich Minister of Propaganda Discovery of graves of Nazi Germany noted: “The whole In the summer of 1941 Smolensk and problem of Katyń has become a big its surroundings were occupied by the political affair that may still have a German army. The first information significant resonance. That is why we about the mass graves of Polish officers make use of it in accordance with the in the Katyń Forest was given to the state of the art. Since these 10,000 to Germans shortly after, but they did not 12,000 Polish officers have already lost make any attempt to verify it. In the their lives – perhaps not as a result

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of no fault of their own, as they once the situation with an accusatory article instigated war, their fate should now “Polish Hitler’s collaborators”. serve the nations of Europe to open their eyes to the danger of Bolshevism”3. The Soviets, having had broken off diplomatic relations with the Polish Shortly after the discovery of the graves government less than a week later, and in Katyń, the Polish government called following the occupation of Smolensk for an investigation. The disappearance by the Red Army, the NKVD and NKGB of Polish officers has long been a matter officers immediately went to Katyń to of concern for the Polish authorities – falsify evidence of a crime. In January they also repeatedly asked the Kremlin 1944, a special commission headed by about their fate. The discovery made Nikolay Burdenko that investigated the Polish government demand that the the Katyń massacre reported that Soviets explain what happened during the Germans were responsible for the genocide. Moscow reacted with a the crimes. After the war, the case of false accusation of Poles covering up the Katyń was raised before the Nuremberg German crime and cooperating with Tribunal. However, it did not go to trial the Nazis. Under Stalin’s pressure, the as the guilt of the Germans could not British Foreign Minister demanded the be proven. Over the following decades, immediate withdrawal of the appeal and the Soviets tried to erase the memory the public announcement that the Katyń of the Katyń massacre. massacre was a German “invention”. A tool used in spreading disinformation British censorship stopped the Polish was publicizing the German crime radio dispatches and confiscated texts committed on the residents of the intended for printing. The Allies feared Belarusian village of Khatyn, located that Poland’s position would complicate near Katyń. Soviet-British contacts. Although the Poles withdrew their appeal, the Exhumations Soviets broke off diplomatic relations The exhumations in Katyń began at the with the Polish Government-in-exile. end of February 1943 – then the Germans Stalin triumphed – the Katyń case discovered eight mass graves. Out of seven has damaged Poland’s position in the of them, they extracted over 4,000 bodies, international arena. of which nearly 2,800 were identified. After the entry of the Red Army, the Soviet Falsification of history commission concluded that the crimes After the release of the German news were committed by the Germans in the agency, the radio and press from summer of 1941. The official recognition Moscow were disseminating the position of the guilt of the USSR by Mikhail of the Kremlin, blaming the Germans Gorbachev in 1990 made it possible to for the massacre in Katyń. What is resume exploration. As a result, in 1991, more, Moscow’s “Pravda” concluded the it was possible to locate burial places for appeal of the Polish government to the prisoners: from Starobielsk in Piatichatki, International Red Cross for explaining and from Ostashkow in Miednoje. The remaining graves were found during subsequent studies in 1994 and 1995. 3 Eugeniusz Cezary Król, Polska i Polacy At that time, the exhumations were also w propagandzie narodowego socjalizmu carried out in Katyń. Other Polish graves w Niemczech 1919-1945 [“Poland and the Poles in the propaganda of National Socialism in Germany were discovered in Bykivnia in the suburbs 1919-1945”], Warsaw 2006, p. 430. of Kyiv. During the exhumation works

118 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyń Massacre – Mechanisms of Genocide

All Saints' Day at the Military Cemetery, Warsaw, © NAC Poland, November 1, 1990 conducted in 2011, the corpses of Polish In a note for Khrushchev, he suggested citizens from the so-called Ukrainian destroying the victims’ personal files Katyn list were discovered. and preserving only the principal documents. From then on, key files were The Katyn investigations only available to the General Secretary The Polish investigation under the of the CPSU. supervision of prosecutor Jerzy Sawicki started in the spring of 1945 and The review of the Katyń case was only was interrupted in 1946. In the same possible after 1989. In 1990, the Chief year, the Soviet prosecutor-general Prosecutor’s Office of the USSR opened Rudenko brought an accusation before an investigation conducted until 2004, the Nuremberg Tribunal against the when it was canceled due to the death Germans for murdering Polish officers. of the guilty. The cancellation order and In 1950, as a result of the efforts of its justification have been kept secret. the Polish American Congress, the At the same time, the Katyń Massacre Katyń massacre was dealt with by a US was classified as common crime, Congress Committee. In its report, subject to a statute of limitations. In it recommended that the case be referred the same year, the Institute of National to the UN and the USSR be prosecuted Remembrance decided to launch a Polish before the International Court of Justice investigation into the Katyń case. in The Hague. This ruling has triggered numerous protests of the authorities Confession of the USSR and the Polish People’s In the USSR, revealing the truth about Republic. In 1959, the Katyń case was Katyń was only made possible by taken up by the then head of the KGB. perestroika. In 1987, a joint committee

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of historians was formed to explain and Ostashkow. In 2012, a Polish war the “blank spots” in the history of cemetery was opened in Kyiv-Bykivnia, mutual relations. The breakthrough where the remains of victims from the was when Russian researchers – Natalia so-called Ukrainian Katyn list were Lebedeva, Vladimir Volkov, Yuri Zoria, buried. and Valentina Parsadanova, found the NKVD documents and compared them Many issues relating to the Katyń with lists of German exhumations. Massacre remain unresolved. Journalists and activists of “Memorial”, What makes it even harder is that a Russian NGO defending human rights part of the volumes of the files of the and documenting Stalinist crimes, also investigation conducted by the Russians spoke out for the truth. between 1990 and 2004 are not available. Russia refuses to disclose them, ustifying On 13 April 1990, the Russian their decision with the secrecy clause. agency TASS published an official What is more, Russia has not made a announcement stating that the NKVD, final decision on the legal classification and Beria and Merkulov personally, of the crime. The Russian Prosecutor’s are responsible for the murder of Poles. Office considered it a common crime On the same day, Poland received without revealing the legal grounding. several hundred copies of documents The names of the victims on the so- concerning the prisoners of Kozelsk, called Belarusian Katyn list, not yet Starobielsk, and Ostashkow. On 14 found, are still unknown. It is also October 1992, a special envoy of unknown where these people were President Boris Yeltsin solemnly buried. In the case of the so-called presented President Lech Wałęsa Ukrainian Katyn list, the place where with a copy of the famous Package a small number of victims are buried No. 1, including a letter from Beria was found. The aim of the Polish to Stalin, and an extract from the investigation conducted by the Institute minutes of the Politburo of the USSR. of National Remembrance, which A new stage in research on the Katyń considers Katyń murder to be a war Massacre had begun. crime and a crime against humanity in its most serious form – that is, Katyń necropolises genocide – is to explain all the In the early 1990s, Poles made efforts circumstances of this atrocious crime. to build a large cemetery, mass tombs, The aim is to find out the names of all ossuaries or honourary “necropoleis” the victims of the Katyń Massacre, for the victims of the Katyń Massacre. as well as the places where they were The first Polish cemetery where the executed and buried. The investigators remains of Soviet genocide victims of the Institute of National are buried was opened in June 2000 in Remembrance also seek to identify the Kharkiv-Piatichatki. The remains of names of all the perpetrators of the Polish soldiers and civilians, but also crime and determine the responsibility of Kharkiv residents, who were victims of each of them. In addition, if possible, of Stalinist terror, were buried in the it would be to prosecute the living cemetery. In the following months, perpetrators and bring about justice. similar ceremonies were held in Katyń and Miednoje. These cemeteries Katarzyna Utracka became the final resting place for Polish March 2020 officers from the camp in Kozelsk

120 The Warsaw Institute Review Author Biographies

Piotr Bajda Ministry of State Assets of the Republic holds a doctoral degree in Political of Poland in the Law and Justice Science. He is a lecturer at the Cardinal government. Stefan Wyszyński University, and p. 20 worked as a researcher at the Institute of Grzegorz Kuczyński Political Studies of the Polish Academy of is a graduate of history at the University Sciences. He worked as a Deputy Director of Białystok and the University of of the Polish Institute in Bratislava, Warsaw, specializing in Eastern and at the Centre for Eastern Studies European Studies. Author of books How (OSW), as well as a representative of the Do the Russians Murder and Throne in International Visegrad Fund Blood: Secrets of the Kremlin’s Policy. (Trustee for Poland). p. 39 Journalist and expert specializing in the eastern area, Russia and the Berenika Grabowska former USSR. p. 52 is a graduate of International Relations from the University in Warsaw. She Aleksander ksawery Olech completed the Academy of Young is a specialist in the field of terrorism Diplomats program in the European and security in Europe, as well as Academy of Diplomacy. She currently international armed conflicts and serves as the President of the Warsaw migration. Currently a PhD student Institute Review and the Vice-President specializing in security sciences at the of the European Young Conservatives. War Studies University and a member of Earlier she held the position of Chairman the Polish African Association. p. 64 of Poland’s Young Diplomats Forum and Vice-President of Warsaw Laurențiu Pachiu Latin Convention. p. 15 is the vice-president of the Energy Policy Group and a lawyer with policy and legal Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse expertise in the field of energy. p. 82 is a sociologist, political scientist, and historian. He is a professor at the Paweł Pawłowski University of Warsaw and Head of the is a graduate from the Faculty of Law Department of European Union Policies and Administration at the University of at the Institute of European Studies. He Warsaw, currently a PhD student at the specializes in the analysis of economic Institute of Sciences of the State and the policies in the EU and the member states Law. A graduate of a scientific internship and is an expert in public management, at The Institute of World Politics and geo-economics, Europeanisation, EU Babson Entrepreneurship Program theoretical thoughts. at Babson College. p. 28 p. 45

Janusz Kowalski Daniel Pogorzelski In 2016, he served as the Vice-President is correspondent and expert to the of the PGNiG Management Board. Since Warsaw Institute Review. He regularly 2019, he is a Member of the Polish Sejm appears as a political analyst with Cook and serves as Secretary of State in the County Democratic Party Executive

1/2020 121 Author Biographies

Director Jacob Kaplan as one of the Bryce Wakefield “Political-Know-It-Alls” on The Ben is the National Executive Director Joravsky Show. He is a writer and editor of the Australian Institute for the blog ‘Forgotten Chicago’, Vice of International Affairs. He has lived, President of the Northwest Chicago worked and researched in the United Historical Society, as well as co-author of States, Japan, Europe and New Zealand. four history books. He trained as a political scientist with p. 105 particular expertise in International Relations and the international affairs Witold Repetowicz of East Asia. is a journalist, lawyer, analyst specializing p. 72 in the Middle East. Author of two books: “My name is Kurdistan” (2016) Izabela Wojtyczka and “Allah Akbar, War and Peace is the Editor-in-Chief of the Warsaw in Iraq” (2019). Institute Review and former Vice- p. 88 President of the Warsaw Institute Foundation. She was formerly active in Arkady Rzegocki the energy sector and cooperated with is Ambassador Extraordinary and the Polish Institute of International Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Poland Affairs. She is a graduate of the Faculty to the United Kingdom of Great Britain of Political Science and International and Northern Ireland. Ambassador Studies at the University of Warsaw, Rzegocki is a political scientist, professor and Economics at the Warsaw School of the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, of Economics. She also completed specialising in Polish and English a six-month scholarship at the Pázmány political thought, the concept of national Péter Catholic University in Budapest. interest (raison d'Etat), as well as the issue Her research interests include the of soft power. p. 15 European Union, energy policy, the CEE region, decision-making George Scutaru processes, and lobbying. is a founder and CEO of New Strategy p. 6 Center, former National Security Adviser to the Romanian President. p. 82

Katarzyna Utracka is a historian, Deputy Head of the Historical Department of the Warsaw Uprising Museum. Author and co-author of numerous articles, publications, and albums dedicated to the occupation and insurrection. She is writing her doctoral thesis entitled Provisions of Insurgent p. 111

122 The Warsaw Institute Review 1/2020 123 ISSN 2543-9839 qr. 1. 2020 no. 12

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