ISSN 2543-9839 qr. 1. 2020 no. 12 THE WARSAW INSTITUTE REVIEW no. 12. 2020 www.warsawinstitute.review Editorial Dear Readers, uring the preparation of the release of this issue – the first of The Warsaw Institute Review (WIR) of this year – we were still in what can be described as the “old” reality. We, like most, were doing our best to become aware of Dthe impending crisis and the global coronavirus pandemic, which has already changed and continues to change our optics of the world. It would seem that having begun to reveal many underlaying difficulties and fragilities, almost all areas of life – political, social, and economic – require some recalibration. It is not an overstatement that even the most well-positioned and robust states, such as the US, Germany, and Australia, are seeing their economies strained, and sadly, people lost. However, we humans are relentless, and the difficult fight against the pandemic is only at its beginning, where the focus is still primarily on stopping the spread of infections from a medical angle. We all know the following months will be a great test for both the current balance of power in the world and the stability of the global economy. The world stopped for a moment. However, the pre-existing geopolitical conundrums across the world did not. In what direction will these go when the dust settles after the first shock? We definitely look for answers to this key question in our quarterly. And thus, I would like to cordially invite you to read the articles prepared by an excellent array of experts. The first that I would like to recommend is the work of Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, who in an interview describes the possible consequences of fighting the coronavirus for the European Union and the condition of international organizations in the world in the impending crisis. In a separate article devoted to the analysis of the French vision of Europe, the Professor contemplates to which extent the French vision of European integration can materialize after the United Kingdom’s departure and to which extent is Germany weakened internally. And in the text of Grzegorz Kuczyński, an expert on eastern policy of the Warsaw Institute think tank, we seek answers to questions about Russia's military alliance with China. In the context of the likely change in the balance of power in the international arena, the above analyses provide the basis for considering possible directions of change – all happening at once. 1/2020 3 Editorial In the article “Giants Built on the Fundamentals of Economic Patriotism” we touch on the topic of the doctrine of economic The patriotism, which assumes solidarity of consumers in purchasing Warsaw choices and enterprises with a focus on local capital. This trend is Institute being successfully developed in all developed economies of the world, Review as it means that the local economy has the opportunity to grow faster without cutting off the benefits of globalization. It is economic © Copyright 2020 patriotism that is particularly noticeable in times of economic crisis, The Warsaw Institute Review when countries minimize its negative effects through social solidarity. Warsaw, Poland Ultimately, it is impossible to overlook one of Poland’s most important Editor-in-Chief recent successes, which was the victory in the arbitration of PLN 6 Izabela Wojtyczka [email protected] billion by the Polish gas champion against Russia’s Gazprom for gas Editing prices in the Yamal contract. Polish lawyers have proved that gas in the Alexander Wielgos years from 2014 to 2020 was sold to Poland at artificially inflated prices. Łukasz Biernacki Janusz Kowalski, former Vice President of PGNiG and incumbent Translations Aleksandra Tomaszewska Secretary of State in the Polish government, elaborated on the backstage Paulina Piłat developments of the whole endeavor. In wishing you a pleasant read, with great sadness, we extend our Cover and Layout heartfelt to those most afflicted, including the tragedies befalling Katarzyna Dinwebel Jacek Kotela Italian, Spanish, or American societies. Together with the entire DTP and Printing Editorial Team, we would like to express our great support to all our www.sindruk.pl partners from all over the world who are currently struggling with coronavirus pandemic and its effects. We will get through this ordeal by helping one another together. With the highest regards, Izabela Wojtyczka Publisher Editor-in-Chief The Warsaw Institute The Warsaw Institute Review Review Sp. z o.o. Świętokrzyska 18/410, 00-052 Warsaw, Poland www.warsawinstitute.review Co-financed by the Minister of [email protected] Culture and National Heritage from the Promotion of Culture Fund. The opinions given and the positions held in the materials published in the Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors and cannot be equated with the official position Partners: of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and Foundation based in Warsaw, Poland Foundation based in United States Ministry of Culture and National Heritage of the Republic of Poland. ISSN 2543-9839 www.warsawinstitute.org www.warsaw.institute 4 The Warsaw Institute Review CONteNTS S52ECURITY REPORT GEOPOLITICS72 HISTORY105 Grzegorz Kuczyński: Dr. Bryce Wakefield: Daniel Pogorzelski: Russia-China: a limited The Indo-Pacific: Still Stanislav Szukalski: liability military alliance Under Construction The Human Riddle INTERVIEW GEOPOLITICS Izabela Wojtyczka Aleksander Ksawery Olech Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse Emmanuel Macron and French-Russian The virus will change the EU, relations in times of crisis 6 but not how we might expect 64 in international alliances INTERVIEW GEOPOLITICS Berenika Grabowska Dr. Bryce Wakefield Professor Arkady Rzegocki The Indo-Pacific: Still Under New chapter: Poland - UK relations 72 Construction 15 after Brexit SECURITY REPORT SECURITY REPORT Laurențiu Pachiu, George Scutaru Janusz Kowalski Energy and the Battle Poland wins in the Arbitration for the Black Sea with Gazprom over the price 82 20 of natural gas SECURITY REPORT Witold Repetowicz EUROPEAN UNION Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse Aggression or collective security: 28 The French Vision of Europe’s Future 88 HOPE, another face of Iran ECONOMY CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE Professor Piotr Bajda Editorial Team of the Warsaw The New Rules of the Central Institute Review 39 European Game Giants Built on the Fundamentals 97 of Economic Patriotism DISINFORMATION Paweł Pawłowski HISTORY An Alternative History Created Daniel Pogorzelski 45 by the Kremlin 105 Stanislav Szukalski: The Human Riddle SECURITY REPORT HISTORY Grzegorz Kuczyński Katarzyna Utracka Russia-China: a limited liability The Katyń Massacre – Mechanisms 52 military alliance 111 of Genocide 1/2020 5 Interview THE ViruS will CHANge THE EU, but NOT HOW we MIGHT EXpect Izabela Wojtyczka's interview with Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse The COVID-19 pandemic has reached all European Union countries, changing the landscape not only of individual countries and their economies, but also of the entire Community. Professor Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, in an interview by Izabela Wojtyczka, Editor-in-Chief of The Warsaw Institute Review, elaborates on the fight against the virus in Europe, its economic effects, the condition of the EU, and ultimately, changes on the geopolitical chessboard. 6 The Warsaw Institute Review The virus will change the EU, but not how we might expect GERMAN MINISTER OF FINANCE OLAF SCHOLZ AND PRESIDENT OF EUROPEAN © Olivier Hoslet (PAP/EPA) CENTRAL BANK CHRISTINE LAGARDE DURING EUROGROUP FINANCE MINISTERS' MEETING IN BRUSSELS, BELGIUM, FEBRUARY 17, 2020. IZABELA WOJTYCZKA: FOR SEVERAL In the next phase of the crisis, the EU WEEKS NOW, WE ALL HAVE BEEN should focus on supporting the Member WATCHING CLOSELY THE EUROPEAN States facing the crisis. In part, this UNION’S REACTION TO THE SARS- has already begun taking shape. Most COV-2 VIRUS, WHICH AT PRESENT notably, the European Commission IS STILL RAGING IN EUROPE. HOW channelled financial means for vaccine DO YOU ASSESS THE COMMUNITY’S research, organised joint tenders for ACTIONS? medical equipment, made strides to Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse: European popularise good practices in combating institutions were busy with the migration the pandemic, as well as having loosened crisis on the Turkish-Greek border, while internal market and public procurement in the European Union the pandemic rules. Additionally, it sought to develop was developing at its most intensive rate. financial instruments to counter the For this reason, it would seem that the health crisis and the impending economic EU “missed” the first phase of the crisis, recession. All this should be listed on the allowing the Member States to act on plus side of the EU institutions’ actions their own. In general, it was not decisively undertaken. helping, but also it was not interrupting the national authorities, who are the most What is negative is the Commission’s responsible for tackling the crisis. The attempts to impose universal ways of only issue that ought to be definitely be exiting the crisis and to interfere in the assessed in a negative light is the European internal affairs of the Member States. Commission’s call to keep national borders On this occasion, it turned out – open when they should have been closed again – that the EU institutions are in order to limit the movement of people applying double standards in relation infected in the first phase of the pandemic. to Central European countries, where, 1/2020 7 Interview EUROPEAN UNION. ONCE WE HAVE DEALT WITH THE CORONAVIRUS Poles should understand SITUATION, COULD WE EXPECT MORE RHETORIC ORBITAL that it is necessary to build AROUND COUNTRIES POTENTIALLY CONSIDERING TO LEAVE THE their own strong state COMMUNITY? INCREASINGLY CRITICAL VOICES ARE COMING EVEN with strategic instruments FROM GERMANY, WHICH SPEAKS OPENLY ABOUT THE LACK OF of coordinating action SOLIDARITY IN THE FACE OF SUCH A SERIOUS PANDEMIC... in order to effectively Not only Italians and Spaniards, but other nations of Southern Europe and respond to various crises Western Europe are also increasingly bitter and disappointed with European in the future.