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P1.2 Severe Weather Outbreak Over Phoenix Arizona on 14 July 2002

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P1.2 Severe Weather Outbreak Over Phoenix Arizona on 14 July 2002 P1.2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER PHOENIX ARIZONA ON 14 JULY 2002 G. Douglas Green* NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Phoenix, Arizona Erik S. Pytlak NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Tucson, Arizona 1. INTRODUCTION upper tropospheric high pressure affected the area. A peak 500 hPa height of 6020 gpm occurred over northern Severe convective storms, dust storms, and localized Nevada and southern Oregon on 11 July. The area of flash floods are frequently observed over the lower high pressure slowly weakened and drifted southeast desert of south-central and southeast Arizona during the during the period 12-14 July. By 1200 UTC 14 July, the summer convective season (late June-mid September). upper level high was centered over southern Utah with a However, the first widespread severe thunderstorm maximum height of 5940 gpm. outbreak of summer 2002, which occurred on 14 July, was particularly intense, especially over and near Stronger-than-normal east to northeast wind occurred Phoenix, Arizona. Several modes of severe weather throughout the mid-troposphere over much of Arizona were observed in the Phoenix area: 1) widespread dust during the period 12-14 July, which resulted in above- storm with near zero visibility and 17-26 m/s (40-60 mph) average vertical shear in the low-mid troposphere. The sustained wind; 2) damaging microbursts, with peak wind Storm Prediction Center (SPC), noting that vertical estimated near 45 m/s, caused extensive damage over shear favored development of longer-lived multicellular Sky Harbor International Airport; and 3) unusually high storms/MCSs, issued a severe thunderstorm watch for a rainfall rates (> 15 cm/hr) and associated flash flooding portion of northwest Arizona on 12 July, and a portion of occurred over portions of central and south Phoenix. The central and south-central Arizona, including the Greater Arizona Insurance Information Association reported that Phoenix area, on 13 July, when a rather strong upper $45 million in property damage occurred as a level disturbance moved across northern and central consequence of the microbursts at Sky Harbor Arizona. Indeed, MCS development and severe weather (Frederikson, personal communication, 2003), making occurred in and near the watch areas on 12 and 13 July; this the second-costliest storm in the State of Arizona however, severe thunderstorms did not occur over the since 1971. Greater Phoenix area the evening of 13 July. Severe weather was expected over Arizona during the Low-level moist advection, in the form of a “gulf surge”, afternoon and evening of 14 July; however, the brunt of occurred over the lower Colorado River valley and far the severe weather was expected to occur over southeast California the night of 13-14 July as Tropical southeast Arizona, to the south and east of Phoen ix. Storm Cristina tracked west-northwest over the eastern This paper provides a brief review of the meteorological Pacific Ocean. If other meteorological conditions are events which culminated in the severe weather outbreak, favorable for severe convective storms, the increase in describes the outbreak over southeast and south central low level moisture associated with a “surge” event can be Arizona, including the Phoenix and Tucson WFO County great enough allow severe storms to develop over the Warning Forecast Areas (CWFAs), highlights the lower desert of southern Arizona. However, the surge importance of situational awareness, and points out how extended upward only to around 1200 m (4000 feet) AGL, difficult it is to provide meaningful severe weather according to the KYUX WSR-88D, and surface dew points outlooks, especially for the lower desert of south-central over south central Arizona, including the Greater Phoenix Arizona, during the summer convective season. metropolitan area, only rose to 13-14 C (mid 50s F) as a consequence of this surge event. Surface dew points of this magnitude are considered marginal, at best, for 2. SYNOPTIC SITUATION supporting deep convective storms over the lower desert of south-central Arizona during the summer convective All-time record high temperatures were recorded across season. much of the western United States during the period 10- 14 July 2002 as an anomalously strong area of mid- Kinematic and thermodynamic factors derived from the 14 July 1200 UTC Tucson sounding which supported the potential for severe thunderstorm development over ___________________________________________ southeast Arizona later in the day included: 1) unusually * Corresponding author address: G. Douglas Green, large convective available potential energy (CAPE) NOAA/NWS, PAB 500, PO Box 52025, Phoenix AZ values, with MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 2) 700-500 hPa 85072-2025; e-mail: [email protected] mean layer vertical wind shear of 30 knots, 3)inverted-V and 3) the Phoenix lead forecaster, though agreeing that thermodynamic profile, 4) a weak capping inversion near severe weather was a good bet over the eastern portion the 750 hPa level, and 5) favorable NE-to-SW steering of the Phoenix CWFA, mentioned that the overnight “gulf flow from higher terrain toward the lower desert. The surge” had failed to bring a noticeable increase in low- 1200 UTC Phoenix research sounding, funded by SRP, level moisture to south-central Arizona, and observed revealed: 1) MLCAPE (sfc-750 hPa) of 1950 J/kg, and 2) that, as of 2145 UTC, less-than-optimal thunderstorm a 700-500 hPa mean layer vertical wind shear of 20 coverage existed upstream from his CWFA (this was knots. So, conditions were more unstable and vertical attributed to the fact the atmosphere had dried somewhat wind shear was greater over and near Tucson, situated in that area). Lack of confidence regarding the potential 160 km (100 miles) south-southeast of Phoeni x. for severe weather led to the decision not to issue a Although the local environment was quite unstable, no hazardous weather outlook (HWO) for the Phoenix CWFA well-defined synoptic-scale trigger was evident via water during the day shift on 14 July. Nevertheless, the zone vapor satellite images, upper air plot data, or numerical forecast for the Phoenix area and for the area immediately model initial condition analyses. No short wave trough south and east of Phoen ix, issued at 2245 UTC (345 pm was approaching Arizona underneath the strong mid- MST) 14 July, called for a 30 percent chance for evening level high center. Morning area forecast discussions thunderstorms, with blowing dust likely. Since POP from Tucson and Phoenix focused on the degree of (probability of measurable precipitation) climatology for instability and favorable steering flow. Storms were the Phoenix area is only 10-15 percent during mid-July, expected to become strong to severe over the higher an above-average chance for storms was forecast. terrain, then propagate west over portions of the lower desert during the evening. Based on the morning By 2200 UTC, outflows from the initial thunderstorm Tucson sounding, the Tucson WFO increased the clusters started to trigger valley-based convection which chance for storms and included enhanced wording in its rapidly became severe. By 2345 UTC, the KEMX WSR- zone forecasts for the upcoming afternoon and evening. 88D southeast of Tucson detected numerous strong and severe thunderstorms to the east, south, and southwest 3. SEVERE WEATHER EVOLUTION OVER of the Tucson metropolitan area. By 0024 UTC 15 July, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA a strong line of thunderstorms had swept into the Tucson area. At 0100 UTC, the infrared satellite image Skies were clear over southeast Arizona until 1900 UTC highlighted the ferocity of the maturing MCS over on 14 July, when convective temperatures were reached southeast Arizona, with several overshooting tops cooling in the highest mountains of southeast Arizona and west- below -70 C (Figure 2). central New Mexico. In just one hour, thunderstorms were approaching severe limits over the Chiricahua, White, Huachuca and Whetstone Mountains, with the 2000 UTC visible GOES-10 image (not shown) depicting overshooting tops at these locations. The first Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued on a cluster of storms over the Huachucas and Whetstones of far eastern Santa Cruz county, in extreme southern Arizona, at 2008 UTC. Meanwhile, thunders torm outflows pushing southwest off the White and Gila Mountains in east-central Arizona produced dust storms with wind gusts of 17-22 m/s (40-50 mph) near Safford (KSAD). A visible satellite image at 2100 UTC 14 July 2002 highlights the active convection over southeast Arizona, as well as several areas of storms along or near the Mogollon Rim in north-central and east-central Arizona (Figure 1). At 2200 UTC 14 July, the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC), citing the degree of instability and vertical shear, as well as the character of the early afternoon convection, issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Arizona, valid until 0400 UTC 15 July, which included nearly all of WFO Tucson’s CWFA. However, the watch did not include any portion of WFO Phoenix’s CWFA. Phoenix opted out of the watch for several Figure 1. Visible satellite image valid at 2100 UTC (2 pm reasons: 1) it appeared to all participants that the focus MST) 14 July 2002. 15-minute cloud-to-ground lightning of the severe weather would be over WFO Tucson’s and metar reports are also displayed. Phoenix is near the CWFA, 2) the previous day’s watch was a “bust” for the center of the image. Phoenix CWFA, even though a well-defined upper level disturbance moved over northern and central Arizona, Figure 3. Phoenix sounding: 0000 UTC 15 July 2002 Figure 2. Infrared satellite image valid at 0100 UTC (6 pm MST) 15 July 2002. Severe thunderstorms had CWFA). As of 0000 UTC 15 July, the most intense already affected the Tucson area. Strong to severe storms were southeast of the Greater Phoenix area, thunderstorms were occurring north, east-southeast, and while storms near the Mogollon Rim in north-central south of Phoenix.
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