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Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado & Flash Naonal Weather Service Decision Support Services Naonal Weather Service Des Moines, Iowa Naonal Weather Service "The Naonal Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protec(on of life and property…" Naonal Weather Service Structure La Crosse Sioux Falls Des Moines Omaha Quad Ci#es Disasters Affect Iowa Severe Weather Reports 1980-2006 Data Source: www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/DMX.html Blue dots = damaging wind Blue Dots = Wind gusts oF 75 mph or stronger Green dots = large hail Green dots = Hail oF 2" diameter or larger Red dots/lines = tornadoes Red dots/lines = Tornadoes F2 or stronger Disasters Affect Iowa Presidential Declarations, 1964-2011 Total NumBer of Declaraons % Due to Flooding (Par(ally or Totally) Data Source: h;p://gis.fema.gov/DataFeeds.html NWS Decision Support Services (DSS) Overview NWS provides specific/tailored support to Emergency Managers (EMs)/Core Partners within the scope of our Mission • NWS DSS Goals • Communicaon is key! • Use concise, non-technical terms • Use the decision maker's preferred method • Understand a customer's specific needs • Know role in Incident Command System • NWS Staff has had some NIMS Training • Understand the incident's "Big picture" NWS Des Moines DSS Overview • State Level DSS • Staff the State Emergency Operaons Center (SEOC) • 10 Full Ac(vaons since 1993 • Latest: May 2013 flooding • Provide Virtual Support from the WFO for Virtual SEOC Ac(vaons • State Agency Briefings • Statewide WeBinars NWS Des Moines DSS Overview • County and Local DSS • NWS Products and Services • WeBinars • Web Briefings • Virtual & On-Site Support • Special Events and Post-Event • e.g., Damage Surveys, ParkersBurg Incident Met., etc. • Training • Series of monthly EM/responder weBinars • Dispatcher and Spober Training • EM DSS Workshop • Outreach – County Visit Program • 1:1 training on all NWS Services for EMs and Media (Visits every 2-3 yrs) Rou#ne Products Available at www.weather.gov/dmx • 7-day Forecast • Text • Graphical • Forecast Discussion • Hourly Weather Graph • Observaons • Hourly – Automated • 6-Hourly/24-Hourly – Manual • Daily/Monthly Climate Reports • Temperature • Winds/Gusts • Precipitaon (Snow/Rain Amounts) Hydro Products Available at www.weather.gov/dmx • River Forecasts • Text • Graphical • Long-Range Flood Risk • Weekly/3 month outlook Outlook Products Available at www.weather.gov/dmx • Weather Story • Daily at 6am • Highlights the most significant weather story in the next few days • Hazardous Weather Outlook • Daily at 5am • Two Periods • Today/Tonight • Days 2 through 7 • Highlights any hazardous weather expected in the next 7 days • Watch, Warning, Advisory • Thunderstorms Webinars and Web Briefings NWS Des Moines • Webinars (EM/State Partners) • Hours to days ahead of expected significant hazardous weather • Severe Weather or Winter Weather • Flash Flooding or Major River Flooding • Coordinated with the State Duty Officer • No(ficaon – State Duty Officer Email • Followed up with a web briefing • Web briefings possible without a webinar • Available on our weB page • AccessiBle By EVERYONE NWS Winter Weather Services Timeline • Products for each Phase • Outlook (Be Aware) • 2-7 Days • Hazardous Weather Outlook • Watch (Could Occur) • Days to Hours • Winter Storm Watch • Ice Storm Watch • Blizzard Watch • Wind Chill Watch • Warning (Will Occur/Is Occurring) • Hours to Minutes • Winter Storm Warning • Ice Storm Warning • Blizzard Warning • Wind Chill Warning NWS Severe Weather/Flash Flood Services Timeline • Products for each Phase • Outlook (Be Aware) • Hazardous Weather Outlook Watch • Storm Predic(on Center Hours to Minutes Convec(ve Outlooks • Watch (Could Occur) • Severe Thunderstorm Watch Warning • Tornado Watch Minutes • Flash Flood Watch • Warning (Is Occurring) Outlook • Severe Thunderstorm Days to Hours Warning • Tornado Warning • Flash Flood Warning Storm Predic#on Center Severe Weather Outlooks • Convec#ve Outlooks • Day 1, 2 & 3 Outlooks • Slight • Moderate • High • Day 4-8 Outlook • Enhanced Thunderstorm Outlook • Current day Broken into 4-hr me periods • Morning • Late Morning/Early www.spc.noaa.gov Aernoon • Late Apernoon/Early Evening Storm-Based Warnings Threat-Based Polygon Warnings • Implemented in 2008 • Replaced County-Based Warnings • Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado & Flash Flood Warnings • More specific • Increased clarity • Less area included in a warning • Fewer people warned/False-Alarmed • 61% reduc(on – Severe • 80% reduc(on – Tornado Impact Based Warnings New in 2013 Tornado Tag in Severe Thunderstorm Warnings A severe thunderstorm has some potential for producing a tornado although forecaster TORNADO…POSSIBLE confidence is not high enough to issue a Tornado Warning Hail/Wind Tags in Severe Thunderstorm Warnings HAIL…2.75IN Max of 2.75" or baseball hail expected WIND…70MPH Max of 70 mph winds expected Tornado Tag (Tornado Warnings) TORNADO...RADAR Evidence on radar and environment is INDICATED supportive, but no confirmation. TORNADO...OBSERVED Tornado is confirmed by spotters, law enforcement, etc. Tornado Damage Threat Tag (Tornado Warnings) No Tag Used most of the (me, when tornado damage possiBle within the warning polygon. Tornado duraon generally expected to Be short-lived TORNADO DAMAGE Used rarely, when there is credible evidence THREAT...CONSIDERABLE that a tornado, capable of producing considerable damage, is imminent or ongoing. Tornado duration generally expected to be long-lived TORNADO DAMAGE Use exceedingly rarely, when a severe threat THREAT...CATASTROPHIC to human life and catastrophic damage from a tornado is occurring, and will only be used when reliable sources confirm a violent tornado.. Tornado duration generally expected to be long-lived Tornado/Flash Flood Emergencies • Tornado Emergency • A destruc(ve confirmed tornado which will likely move into a populated area resul(ng in serious property damage and a high poten(al for loss of life! • Used with the "Catastrophic" Tornado tag. • Flash Flood Emergency • A serious flash flood which will likely cause severe damage and a high poten(al for loss of life! Interac#ve NWS (iNWS) Alerts inws.wrh.noaa.gov • Free, But account registraon required • Text Message and/or Email alerts • Alerts for a user-defined area • e.g., city, zip code, or custom polygon area • Mul(ple locaons allowed • Specify the types of alerts to receive • Service designed specifically for NWS partners Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 08/06/2013 6:52 PM CDT to 08/07/2013 12:00 AM CDT for Dallas County. More Informaon. Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) or Commercial Mobile Alert System (CMAS) Warning Type CMAS Message • Joint Effort by the wireless Tsunami Warning Tsunami danger on the coast. Go to high ground or move inland. Check local media. –NWS industry, FCC and FEMA Tornado Warning Tornado Warning in this area til hh:mm tzT. Take shelter now. Check • Since April 2012 local media. –NWS Extreme Wind Warning Extreme Wind Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Take shelter. – NWS • Naonal emergency alert Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Check local media. – NWS system Hurricane Warning Hurricane Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Check local media and authorities. –NWS • No fee to users Typhoon Warning Typhoon Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Check local media and authorities. –NWS • Automac enrollment Dust Storm Warning Dust Storm Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Avoid travel. Check local media. –NWS • Concise Text-like Alert Messages • Presiden(al Alerts • Imminent Threat Alerts • Extreme and Severe • AMBER Alerts • More info at: www.weather.gov/com/weatherreadynaon/wea.html DSS on the Go More information at: www.weather.gov/images/dmx/DSSResGuide.pdf • NWS Mobile Website • hbp://moBile.weather.gov/ • Third-Party Mobile Apps* • Some free/some not • *NOAA/NWS does not officially endorse these products • Radar • Android – PYKL3 and RadarScope • Apple – RadarScope • Warnings • Android - Pro Weather Alert • Apple - WeatherAlerts, iMap Weather Radio and MyWarn • Lightning – Spark Map on WeatherBug • Current Condi#ons and Forecast – Be aware that some apps "interpolate" oBservaons • Many available - Forecasts originang from various sources • Android/Apple - Weather Channel, WeatherBug, AccuWeather, Weather Underground, etc. Social Media Facebook Twier • US Naonal Weather • @NWSdesmoines Service Des Moines Iowa • #nwsdmx • #iawx • #iowaweather YouTube NWS Des Moines NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio • Broadcasts weather informaon 24/7 • SAME TONE Alert Technology • Specific Area Message Encoding (SAME) •Weather Watches, Warnings and Advisories • Severe, Winter, Flood and Flash Flood • Non-weather Emergency Noces • Civil Emergency Messages • AmBer Alerts, etc. Unscheduled Event Services • Air Dispersion/Hazardous Material Issues • HYSPLIT – air dispersion model • HYbrid Single-Par(cle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory • Output for a single instance or for a period of (me • Chemical Releases • Fires • Explosions • Example: Support for the Iowa State Fair • Fire Weather Forecasts • Spot Forecasts for PrescriBed Burns and Wildfires • Spot Forecasts also used at (mes for hazardous material issues • e.g., downtown DSM warehouse fire Unscheduled Event Services • Weather & River Forecasts • Fires & Hazmat • Searches • Weather-Sensi(ve Operaons Des Moines Register Sioux City Journal Des Moines Register Post-Event DSS • Once storm damage has occurred • NWS coordinaon with county • Finalize
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