* Corresponding Author Address: Mark A. Tew, National Weather Service, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910; E-Mail: [email protected]
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A Winter Forecasting Handbook Winter Storm Information That Is Useful to the Public
A Winter Forecasting Handbook Winter storm information that is useful to the public: 1) The time of onset of dangerous winter weather conditions 2) The time that dangerous winter weather conditions will abate 3) The type of winter weather to be expected: a) Snow b) Sleet c) Freezing rain d) Transitions between these three 7) The intensity of the precipitation 8) The total amount of precipitation that will accumulate 9) The temperatures during the storm (particularly if they are dangerously low) 7) The winds and wind chill temperature (particularly if winds cause blizzard conditions where visibility is reduced). 8) The uncertainty in the forecast. Some problems facing meteorologists: Winter precipitation occurs on the mesoscale The type and intensity of winter precipitation varies over short distances. Forecast products are not well tailored to winter Subtle features, such as variations in the wet bulb temperature, orography, urban heat islands, warm layers aloft, dry layers, small variations in cyclone track, surface temperature, and others all can influence the severity and character of a winter storm event. FORECASTING WINTER WEATHER Important factors: 1. Forcing a) Frontal forcing (at surface and aloft) b) Jetstream forcing c) Location where forcing will occur 2. Quantitative precipitation forecasts from models 3. Thermal structure where forcing and precipitation are expected 4. Moisture distribution in region where forcing and precipitation are expected. 5. Consideration of microphysical processes Forecasting winter precipitation in 0-48 hour time range: You must have a good understanding of the current state of the Atmosphere BEFORE you try to forecast a future state! 1. Examine current data to identify positions of cyclones and anticyclones and the location and types of fronts. -
National Weather Service Reference Guide
National Weather Service Reference Guide Purpose of this Document he National Weather Service (NWS) provides many products and services which can be T used by other governmental agencies, Tribal Nations, the private sector, the public and the global community. The data and services provided by the NWS are designed to fulfill us- ers’ needs and provide valuable information in the areas of weather, hydrology and climate. In addition, the NWS has numerous partnerships with private and other government entities. These partnerships help facilitate the mission of the NWS, which is to protect life and prop- erty and enhance the national economy. This document is intended to serve as a reference guide and information manual of the products and services provided by the NWS on a na- tional basis. Editor’s note: Throughout this document, the term ―county‖ will be used to represent counties, parishes, and boroughs. Similarly, ―county warning area‖ will be used to represent the area of responsibility of all of- fices. The local forecast office at Buffalo, New York, January, 1899. The local National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL, present day. 2 Table of Contents Click on description to go directly to the page. 1. What is the National Weather Service?…………………….………………………. 5 Mission Statement 6 Organizational Structure 7 County Warning Areas 8 Weather Forecast Office Staff 10 River Forecast Center Staff 13 NWS Directive System 14 2. Non-Routine Products and Services (watch/warning/advisory descriptions)..…….. 15 Convective Weather 16 Tropical Weather 17 Winter Weather 18 Hydrology 19 Coastal Flood 20 Marine Weather 21 Non-Precipitation 23 Fire Weather 24 Other 25 Statements 25 Other Non-Routine Products 26 Extreme Weather Wording 27 Verification and Performance Goals 28 Impact-Based Decision Support Services 30 Requesting a Spot Fire Weather Forecast 33 Hazardous Materials Emergency Support 34 Interactive Warning Team 37 HazCollect 38 Damage Surveys 40 Storm Data 44 Information Requests 46 3. -
Yeah, There Is a Difference Measuring Road Weather and Using It!
Yeah, There is a Difference Measuring Road Weather and Using it! Jon Tarleton Head of Transportation Marketing – Meteorologist Twitter: @jontarleton What are we going to talk about? . The weather of course! But when and what matters! . The weather before, during, and after a storm. The weather around frost. Let’s start with nothing and build on it. When we are done you will know what information is good information! Page 2 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] There is weather… And then there is road weather… Page 3 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] Let’s start at the beginning! Page 4 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] You just got your fleet of new plows! Page 5 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] But otherwise you are Anytown, USA Page 6 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] Approaching winter storm Page 7 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] Air temperature .Critical in telling us the type of precipitation. .How do we measure it? .Measured from 6ft off the ground .In a white vented enclosure .Combined with wind it has an impact on our road surface. Page 8 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] Thermodynamics 101 .To understand how the air impacts our pavement we must understand how heat transfers from objects, and between the air and objects. Sun Air Subgrade Page 9 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] Wind Page 10 © Vaisala 10/20/2016 [Name] Wind – An important piece of the weather . Lows typical move from southwest to northwest. System may not always contain all of the precipitation types. Best snow is usually approx. L 250 miles north of center of low. -
Weather Elements
In this chapter Temperature Humidity Clouds Precipitation WEATHER ELEMENTS TEMPERATURE per cent of the incoming radiation. The more energy a surface absorbs, the more heat it will eventually release Heat is one form of energy. The sun radiates energy in back into the atmosphere. waves, in this case short waves, to the earth. The atmosphere does not absorb short-wave energy readily. The clouds, dust and water vapour in the atmosphere To show your students that the rate at which energy is absorbed depends on the colour of a deflect about half of the sun's energy back into space. material, try Activity number 7 on page 8-9 in What passes through is absorbed by the land and water the Activity Section. and converted to heat. The earth radiates this back as Eventually, all the energy the sun radiates to earth long-wave energy, which then warms the air above. In returns to outer space creating the global balance of short, the earth acts as a radiator, which you probably energy. This prevents the earth from heating up or know already, if you have ever walked down a long stretch cooling down. of sidewalk or across a large parking lot on a hot day and watched (or felt) the heat rise from the pavement. The temperature on your thermometer this morning, however, was probably affected more by the season, the Several factors affect how much of the sun's energy a time of day, the latitude, and the geography of your area surface, such as a field, absorbs. One is its colour. -
NOTES and CORRESPONDENCE the Steadman Wind Chill
DECEMBER 1998 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 1187 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Steadman Wind Chill: An Improvement over Present Scales ROBERT G. QUAYLE National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina ROBERT G. STEADMAN School of Agricultural Science, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia 19 February 1998 and 24 June 1998 ABSTRACT Because of shortcomings in the current wind chill formulation, which did not consider the metabolic heat generation of the human body, a new formula is proposed for operational implementation. This formula, referred to as the Steadman wind chill, is based on peer-reviewed research including a heat generation and exchange model of an appropriately dressed person for a range of low temperatures and wind speeds. The Steadman wind chill produces more realistic wind chill equivalents than the current NWS formulation. It is easy to determine from tables (calculated by application of a quadratic ®t in both U.S. and metric units) with values accurate to within 18C. 1. Introduction freezing water to actually freeze under various wind and temperature conditions rather than any human physio- Many scientists have noted de®ciencies in the current logical model of heat loss and gain under equivalent wind chill scale (e.g., Court 1992; Dixon and Prior 1987; conditions. The major consequence is that water, not Driscoll 1985, 1992, 1994; Kessler 1993, 1994, 1995; having a metabolic heat source and not being appro- Horstmeyer 1994; Osczevski 1995; Schwerdt 1995; priately attired in human clothing, produces colder wind Steadman 1995). There was a session partly devoted to chills (for given wind and temperature conditions) than this topic at the 22d Annual Workshop on Hazards Re- those experienced by live, clothed humans. -
Martian Windchill in Terrestrial Terms Randall Osczevski
MARTIAN WINDCHILL IN TERRESTRIAL TERMS RANDALL OSCZEVSKI A two-planet model of windchill suggests that the weather on Mars is not nearly as cold as it sounds. he groundbreaking book The Case for Mars (Zubrin 1996) advocates human exploration and colonization of the red planet. One of its themes is that Mars is beset by dragons of the sort T that ancient mapmakers used to draw on maps in unexplored areas. The dragons of Mars are daunting logistical and safety challenges that deter human exploration. One such dragon must surely be its weather, for Mars sounds far too cold for human life. No place on Earth experiences the low temperatures that occur every night on Mars, where even in the tropics in summer the thermometer often reads close to –90°C and, in midlatitudes in winter, as low as –120°C. The mean annual temperature of Mars is –63°C (Tillman 2009) com- pared to +14°C on Earth (NASA 2010). We can only try to imagine how cold the abysmally low temperatures of Mars might feel, especially when combined with high speed winds Left: The High Arctic feels at least as cold as Mars, year round (Photo by R. Osczevski 1989). Right: Twin Peaks of Mars. (Photo by NASA, Pathfinder Mission 1997) AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY APRIL 2014 | 533 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 08:37 PM UTC that sometimes scour the planet. This intensely bone- refer to the steady state heat transfer from the upwind chilling image of Mars could become a psychological sides of internally heated vertical cylinders having the barrier to potential colonists, as well as to public same diameter, internal thermal resistance, and core support for such ventures. -
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation NWS Terminology Convective Outlook Categories Risk Description 0 - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of General thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period. 1 - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low Marginal coverage and marginal intensity. An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with 2 - Slight varying levels of intensity. 3 - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying Enhanced levels of intensity. An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous 4 - severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is Moderate usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds. An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This 5 - High risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). Hazardous Weather Risks Risk Description An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent, or likely. Advisories are for "less serious" conditions than warnings that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to Advisory situations that may threaten life or property. The National Weather Service may activate weather spotters in areas affected by advisories to help them better track and analyze the event. -
Driving in the Winter Factsheet
Driving in the Winter FactSheet HS04-010B (9-07) Even in Texas the onset of winter can bring severe • Winter Storm Watch winter weather conditions. Employers and employees alerts the public to the who drive for a living need to be aware of how to possibility of a blizzard, drive in winter weather. The leading cause of death heavy snow, freezing rain, during a winter storm is driving accidents and multiple or heavy sleet. vehicle accidents are more likely in severe winter weather conditions. Employers and employees can • Winter Storm Warning is take steps to increase safety while driving in winter issued when a combination of heavy snow, heavy weather. freezing rain, or heavy sleet is expected. • Plan ahead and allow plenty of time for travel. • Winter Weather Advisories are issued when An employer should maintain information on its accumulations of snow, freezing rain, freezing employees’ driving destinations, driving routes, drizzle, and sleet may cause significant and estimated time of arrivals. Drivers should inconvenience and moderately dangerous be patient while driving, because trip time can conditions. increase in winter weather. • Snow is frozen precipitation formed when • Winterize vehicles before traveling in winter temperatures are below freezing in most of the weather. Before driving have a mechanic atmosphere from the earth’s surface to cloud check the following items on vehicles: battery; level. antifreeze; wipers and windshield washer fluid; ignition system; thermostat; lights; flashing • Sleet, also know as ice pellets, is formed when hazard lights; exhaust system; heater; brakes; precipitation or raindrops freeze before hitting defroster; tires (check for adequate tread); and the ground. -
The Basis of Wind Chill RANDALL J
ARCTIC VOL. 48, NO. 4 (DECEMBER 1995) P. 372– 382 The Basis of Wind Chill RANDALL J. OSCZEVSKI1 (Received 21 June 1994; accepted in revised form 16 August 1995) ABSTRACT. The practical success of the wind chill index has often been vaguely attributed to the effect of wind on heat transfer from bare skin, usually the face. To test this theory, facial heat loss and the wind chill index were compared. The effect of wind speed on heat transfer from a thermal model of a head was investigated in a wind tunnel. When the thermal model was facing the wind, wind speed affected the heat transfer from its face in much the same manner as it would affect the heat transfer from a small cylinder, such as that used in the original wind chill experiments carried out in Antarctica fifty years ago. A mathematical model of heat transfer from the face was developed and compared to other models of wind chill. Skin temperatures calculated from the model were consistent with observations of frostbite and discomfort at a range of wind speeds and temperatures. The wind chill index was shown to be several times larger than the calculated heat transfer, but roughly proportional to it. Wind chill equivalent temperatures were recalculated on the basis of facial cooling. An equivalent temperature increment was derived to account for the effect of bright sunshine. Key words: bioclimatology, cold injuries, cold weather, convective heat transfer, face cooling, frostbite, heat loss, survival, wind chill RÉSUMÉ. La popularité de l’indice de refroidissement du vent a souvent été expliquée par le fait qu’on peut la relier plus ou moins à l’effet du vent sur le transfert thermique à partir de la peau nue, le plus souvent celle du visage. -
National Weather Service Reference Guide
National Weather Service Reference Guide Purpose of this Document he National Weather Service (NWS) provides many products and services which can be T used by other governmental agencies, Tribal Nations, the private sector, the public and the global community. The data and services provided by the NWS are designed to fulfill us- ers’ needs and provide valuable information in the areas of weather, hydrology and climate. In addition, the NWS has numerous partnerships with private and other government entities. These partnerships help facilitate the mission of the NWS, which is to protect life and prop- erty and enhance the national economy. This document is intended to serve as a reference guide and information manual of the products and services provided by the NWS on a na- tional basis. Editor’s note: Throughout this document, the term ―county‖ will be used to represent counties, parishes, and boroughs. Similarly, ―county warning area‖ will be used to represent the area of responsibility of all of- fices. The local forecast office at Buffalo, New York, January, 1899. The local National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL, present day. 2 Table of Contents Click on description to go directly to the page. 1. What is the National Weather Service?…………………….………………………. 5 Mission Statement 6 Organizational Structure 7 County Warning Areas 8 Weather Forecast Office Staff 10 River Forecast Center Staff 13 NWS Directive System 14 2. Non-Routine Products and Services (watch/warning/advisory descriptions)..…….. 15 Convective Weather 16 Tropical Weather 17 Winter Weather 18 Hydrology 19 Coastal Flood 20 Marine Weather 21 Non-Precipitation 23 Fire Weather 24 Other 25 Statements 25 Other Non-Routine Products 26 Extreme Weather Wording 27 Verification and Performance Goals 28 Impact-Based Decision Support Services 30 Requesting a Spot Fire Weather Forecast 33 Hazardous Materials Emergency Support 34 Interactive Warning Team 37 HazCollect 38 Damage Surveys 40 Storm Data 44 Information Requests 46 3. -
Appendix a Gempak Parameters
GEMPAK Parameters APPENDIX A GEMPAK PARAMETERS This appendix contains a list of the GEMPAK parameters. Algorithms used in computing these parameters are also included. The following constants are used in the computations: KAPPA = Poisson's constant = 2 / 7 G = Gravitational constant = 9.80616 m/sec/sec GAMUSD = Standard atmospheric lapse rate = 6.5 K/km RDGAS = Gas constant for dry air = 287.04 J/K/kg PI = Circumference / diameter = 3.14159265 References for some of the algorithms: Bolton, D., 1980: The computation of equivalent potential temperature., Monthly Weather Review, 108, pp 1046-1053. Miller, R.C., 1972: Notes on Severe Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central, AWS Tech. Report 200. Wallace, J.M., P.V. Hobbs, 1977: Atmospheric Science, Academic Press, 467 pp. TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS TMPC - Temperature in Celsius TMPF - Temperature in Fahrenheit TMPK - Temperature in Kelvin STHA - Surface potential temperature in Kelvin STHK - Surface potential temperature in Kelvin N-AWIPS 5.6.L User’s Guide A-1 October 2003 GEMPAK Parameters STHC - Surface potential temperature in Celsius STHE - Surface equivalent potential temperature in Kelvin STHS - Surface saturation equivalent pot. temperature in Kelvin THTA - Potential temperature in Kelvin THTK - Potential temperature in Kelvin THTC - Potential temperature in Celsius THTE - Equivalent potential temperature in Kelvin THTS - Saturation equivalent pot. temperature in Kelvin TVRK - Virtual temperature in Kelvin TVRC - Virtual temperature in Celsius TVRF - Virtual -
NWSI 10-1701, “Text Product Formats and Codes,” Dated March 29, 2018
Department of Commerce • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Service NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-1701 OCTOBER 29, 2019 Operations and Services Dissemination Services NWSPD 10-17 TEXT PRODUCT FORMATS AND CODES NOTICE: This publication is available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/. OPR: DIS (A. Hardy) Certified by: W/DIS (M. Mainelli-McInerny) Type of Issuance: Routine SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes NWSI 10-1701, “Text Product Formats and Codes,” dated March 29, 2018. Changes were made to reflect the addition of Section 8 – 11 to address actions to take when inadvertent messages are sent by NWS or by a third party. Content changes were made to: 1. Throughout the document, updated titles and sections for formatting, section reference numbers and web links to correct sites. 2. Add Section 8, Recommended Actions to Take Following the Inadvertent NWS Dissemination of Messages by NWS Offices. 3. Add Section 9, Steps to Take After a Correctly-Formatted NWS Message is Incorrectly Disseminated by a Third Party 4. Add Section 10, Steps to Take for Messaging After an Inadvertent Dissemination of Test Alerts by a Third Party 5. Add Section 11, Role of NWS Rapid Response Team 6. Updated Appendix B, Section 2.3 to rewrite message example in mixed case. /signed/ 10/15/19____ Michelle Mainelli-McInerney Date Director, Office of Dissemination NWSI 10-1701 OCTOBER 29, 2019 Text Product Formats and Codes – Table of Contents Page 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Mission Connection ...........................................................................................................5 1.2 Text Products in Languages Other Than English ............................................................. 5 1.3 Format of Text Examples ..................................................................................................5 2.