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“The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: a View from the Middle East” 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, D.C., May 19, 2009, 10:00 Am

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“The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: a View from the Middle East” 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, D.C., May 19, 2009, 10:00 Am www.pomed.org ♦ 1820 Jefferson Place, NW ♦ Washington, DC 20036 The Brookings Institute The Saban Center for Middle East Policy “The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: A View from the Middle East” 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, D.C., May 19, 2009, 10:00 am The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute held an event titled “The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: A View from the Middle East”. The event marked the release of a University of Maryland/Zogby International public opinion poll of the Arab world. The event was moderated by Martin Indyk, Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and included three expert panelists. The panelists included Shibley Telhami, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center and Professor of International Affairs at the University of Maryland, James Zogby, Founder and President of the Arab American Institute, and Marc Lynch, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University. Martin Indyk began by introducing the three participants and explaining the importance of the polling given the context of the series of meetings President Obama is currently holding with Middle East leaders and the important speech he will give in Egypt in June. Shibley Telhami presented the results of the polling with a powerpoint presentation which presented the tabulations of the poll's questions. The poll was conducted in six countries: Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. Telhami explained that the goal of conducting an annual survey of the Arab world is to create a data set which can analyze correlations over time and reveal trends in Arab public opinion. He believes the results may help enrich the discourse regarding the role public opinion plays in policy making. One major difference between the 2009 poll and previous years is the focus on the perception of President Obama in the Arab world. Overall, President Obama is seen favorably in the Arab world, or more specifically, he enjoys very low negatives. While Telhami agrees that this lies in sharp contrast to the support of former President Bush, the numbers do not indicate strong support for the President and certainly not for the U.S. policy in aggregate. This support, however, does not translate into faith in U.S. policy, as seventy seven percent of respondents believe the U.S. is one of the biggest threats they face. The poll also reveals some interesting perspectives regarding the U.S. operation in Iraq. Most respondents believe U.S. forces are a part of the problem and that once they leave Iraqis will bridge their differences successfully. Iraq is also the most important issue in terms of how Arabs will assess the administration's Middle East policy, followed closely by the Arab-Israeli conflict. If the poll is to be believed, Iran is losing the public relations battle in terms of their nuclear program, with the number of respondents who believe Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons shrinking. www.pomed.org ♦ 1820 Jefferson Place, NW ♦ Washington, DC 20036 Telhami also asks respondents to name the two world leaders they admire most. Interestingly, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez receives the most support. Osama bin Laden still garners around ten percent showing a hardened, albeit small, percentage of support. Of note is the waning support for Hizbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, who has lost significant support in Egypt. James Zogby spoke next and discussed a series of questions which were not included in Telahmi's presentation. Zogby highlighted a division between support for President Obama and U.S. policies in Egypt and Jordan versus the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In the UAE President Obama actually enjoys a net favorable rating. He also enjoys strong support in Saudi Arabia, however, Egyptians and Jordanians are much more skeptical of the new president. The division is also consistent when individuals are asked whether they believe Obama can bring change, with respondents in the UAE and Saudi Arabia believing he will bring change and those in Egypt and Jordan extremely skeptical of such prospects. Overall, Zogby believes the uptick in favorables is encouraging, however, the support is tentative and while it's a good start, the president still has a long way to go. Marc Lynch commented on the two presentations by making three points. First, Lynch asserted that the increase in Arab opinion polling is a positive development, more sophisticated analysis is still needed. Lynch believes we must be cautious of self censoring in authoritarian countries and as such supports a method of triangulation which employs common sense, public opinion polling, and media reports to build assessments. Second, Lynch believes the numbers show a strategic realignment away from support for Al-Qaeda who he believes had in the past been successful at garnering support based on a platform of general resistance against the west. He believes this has created an opportunity for movements like Hamas and Hizbullah to draw support via a message of general resistance. Lynch's third point was a series of impressions from the survey. For Lynch, the survey shows that a window of hope exists, but if President Obama fails the first test, likely his administration's response to Israeli settlements, he may fail to live up to the high expectations which have been set for him. Lynch's last impression was that Arabs want to support the Palestinians wholeheartedly, but they are frustrated in the inability of Fatah and Hamas to form a unity government. Throughout the discussion portion of the program, the panelists agreed that the numbers seem to point to a reversion of pre-9/11 perceptions throughout the Arab world. James Zogby asserted that the high expectations set for President Obama, if they eventually are not met, could have detrimental effects to his agenda in the Middle East. He also put forth, that while Guantanamo Bay and Abu-Ghraib were “designed to humiliate a few prisoners they humiliated a whole people”. Marc Lynch ended the discussion by explaining that there exists a clear gap between support for resistance against soldiers versus support for resistance against civilians, which may explain the realignment away from Al-Qaeda. www.pomed.org ♦ 1820 Jefferson Place, NW ♦ Washington, DC 20036.
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