Novo and Alexion an Investor's Dream Among Big Caps in 2010
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January 06, 2011 Novo and Alexion an investor's dream among big caps in 2010 The share price performance of Novo Nordisk and Alexion Pharmaceuticals during 2010 must have exceeded the wildest dreams of even the most bullish of their shareholders. Shares in both companies recorded big gains and closed the year at record highs as sales of key products and pipeline developments exceeded expectations. In contrast, Roche and Ipsen had a year to forget, dragged down by the major clinical setback to diabetes agent taspoglutide. Ipsen’s shares lost almost half their value and closed the year at a record low, while Roche was the worst performing big pharma stock of 2010, with a number of pipeline setbacks eroding confidence in the Swiss group’s ability to introduce new candidates to offset looming biosimilar competition to its flagship products. Meanwhile the Indian healthcare market continued its remarkable run with a number of companies trading at record highs (see tables below). Big pharma analysis Large cap ($30bn+) pharma companies: top risers and fallers in FY 2010 Share price (local currency) Market capitalisation ($bn) Rank Top 5 Risers 31-Dec-09 31-Dec-10 % change YE 2009 YE 2010 1 Novo Nordisk (DKr) 336.0 629.0 +87% 40.8 57.7 2 Novartis ($) 52.48 58.95 +12% 119.0 130.8 3 Bristol-Myers Squibb ($) 24.95 26.48 +6% 42.8 45.3 4 AstraZeneca ($) 45.55 46.19 +1% 66.1 65.1 5 Eli Lilly ($) 34.72 35.04 +1% 39.9 40.4 Top 5 Fallers 1 Roche (SFr) 170.12 137.00 -19% 144.1 122.9 2 Gilead Sciences ($) 43.27 36.24 -16% 38.9 29.4 3 Baxter International ($) 58.39 50.62 -13% 35.2 29.5 4 Abbott Laboratories ($) 53.15 47.91 -10% 82.5 74.1 5 Sanofi-Aventis (€) 52.44 47.85 -9% 99.9 87.2 To put the performance of the big pharma companies displayed above into context, US healthcare stock market indices were essentially flat over the year, European stocks made decent progress, the Japanese market struggled while the Indian market surged upwards. Stock Market Index % change in FY 2010 Dow Jones Healthcare (US) +3% S&P Pharmaceuticals (US) -3% AMEX Pharmaceutical (US) -1% Dow Jones STOXX Healthcare (EU) +6% TOPIX Pharmaceutical Index (Japan) -4% Thomson Reuters India Healthcare (India) +34% Winners Pretty much everything Novo did last year turned to gold, from sales and pipeline developments of its own products to the misfortune of others (Novo looks set to enjoy sky-high value for some time, October 28, 2010). Regulatory approval and commercial uptake of diabetes drug, Victoza, have exceeded expectations, while positive pipeline developments such as long-acting insulin, Degludec, have boosted investor confidence. Meanwhile clinical setbacks to taspoglutide and safety scares for Sanofi-Aventis’ long-acting insulin, Lantus, have played into Novo's hands. Novartis was the only other big pharma company to register decent share price gains in 2010, its US shares closed the year close to record highs. In contrast to Swiss rival Roche, Novartis’ pipeline made decent progress last year, the breakthrough moment being FDA approval for the first oral pill for MS, Gilenya. The recently completed acquisition of Alcon has also removed uncertainty and was well received (Novartis ups offer to grab Alcon growth, December 15, 2010). AstraZeneca had been enjoying a largely positive year until a number of setbacks in December wiped out prior gains; most notable was the FDA’s somewhat surprising rejection of blood-thinning agent and future blockbuster, Brilinta (Brilinta decision a lump of coal for AstraZeneca, December 17, 2010). Losers Roche’s annus horribilis ended with the withdrawal of FDA approval for Avastin as a treatment for breast cancer, a significant setting for a product which was tipped to take over Lipitor’s crown as the industry’s best- selling drug (Roche fighting Avastin's corner as support officially withdrawn in breast cancer, December 17, 2010). Baxter continues to struggle to recover from serious oversupply issues in the blood plasma market (Shares in plasma companies bleeding value over slowdown fears, April 26, 2010), while doubts about growth prospects and the patent life of Gilead’s HIV franchise continues to erode confidence, as does its failure to significantly diversify its business (Gilead hurt by faltering confidence, July 19, 2010). Sales expectations for flagship products for both companies, Baxter’s Gammagard and Gilead’s Atripla, have been significantly downgraded in the last 12 months (Advair surges as Avastin tumbles, October 15, 2010). Mid cap analysis Winners While Indian generics players dominate the mid cap winners enclosure, Alexion was the stand-out performer last year, particularly during the second half of 2010 when the stock surged 170% to close at $80. The key to Alexion's success is rare disease product, Soliris, the world’s most expensive drug with annual cost in excess of $400,000 (Alexion riding high on Soliris' potential, September 29, 2010). Lupin, Sun Pharmaceutical and Dr. Reddy's all trade close to record highs, boosted by strong growth in the Indian economy as a whole, while Perrigo's blend of OTC and branded generics continues to attract investors; shares in the Michigan group also closed the year close to record highs. Losers A number of pipeline setbacks for Ipsen, most notably to taspoglutide, suggest new chief executive, Marc de Garidel, has quite a job on his hands to try and turn around the French group's fortunes (Ipsen turnaround awaited as pipeline setbacks mount, December 16, 2010). Dainippon, Warner Chilcott and Shionogi have been ever present in the mid cap fallers this year with investors querying their strategic direction (Novo leads big pharma recovery in third quarter as Roche tumbles, October 1, 2010), while the appearance of Vertex in the fallers is quite surprising. Although Vertex had a good year in terms of reporting positive pivotal data from three phase III trials of future hepatitis C blockbuster, telaprevir, expectations of success were already sky-high which has left investors questioning how much higher the stock can go (Where now for Vertex and Lilly's regrets after hat trick of telaprevir wins, September 9, 2010). Mid cap ($2.5bn-$30bn) pharma companies: top risers and fallers in FY 2010 Market capitalisation Share price (local currency) ($bn) 31-Dec- 31-Dec- % Rank Top 5 Risers YE 2009 YE 2010 09 10 change 1 Alexion Pharmaceuticals ($) 48.82 80.55 +65% 4.3 7.3 2 Lupin (Rs) 298.06 480.45 +61% 2.9 4.8 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 3 301.42 484.65 +61% 6.9 11.2 (Rs) 4 Perrigo ($) 39.73 63.33 +59% 3.6 5.8 5 Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (Rs) 1,143.80 1,662.55 +45% 4.2 6.3 Top 5 Fallers 1 Ipsen (€) 38.76 22.84 -41% 4.8 2.7 Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma 2 1,181 738 -38% 5.2 3.6 (¥) 3 Warner Chilcott ($) 28.47 22.56 -21% 7.2 5.7 4 Shionogi (¥) 2,010 1,603 -20% 7.4 6.9 5 Vertex Pharmaceuticals ($) 42.85 35.03 -18% 8.6 7.1 More from Evaluate Vantage Evaluate HQ 44-(0)20-7377-0800 Evaluate Americas +1-617-573-9450 Evaluate APAC +81-(0)80-1164-4754 © Copyright 2021 Evaluate Ltd..