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The Effect of Airbnb on House Prices in Amsterdam a Study of the Side Effects of a Disruptive Start-Up in the New Sharing Economy

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The Effect of Airbnb on House Prices in Amsterdam a Study of the Side Effects of a Disruptive Start-Up in the New Sharing Economy The effect of Airbnb on house prices in Amsterdam A study of the side effects of a disruptive start-up in the new sharing economy August, 2016 Vincent van der Bijl, 5634458 University of Amsterdam (UvA) MSc Business Economics: Real Estate Finance & Corporate Finance Master thesis Supervisor: dhr. dr. M.I. Dröes 1 Abstract Since its founding in 2008, Airbnb has grown into one of the most successful start-ups in the United States taking the world by storm. However, over the past few years there has been a growing controversy about the side effects Airbnb might have. One aspect of this controversy is the effect Airbnb might have on house prices. This thesis investigates this by looking at the effect of Airbnb on house prices in Amsterdam using the high quality house price data from the Dutch Association of Realtors1 (NVM) and Airbnb data from Inside Airbnb over a period from 2000-2015. A hedonic regression model is used to analyse the data. The regression produces significant results indicating that, on average, house prices increase by 0.42% per increase in Airbnb density by 10,000 reviews posted in a 1,000 meter radius around the property in the period 12 months before the transaction date. An additional analysis shows that by 2015 the total value created by Airbnb for home owners in Amsterdam, via the house prices, is just over 79 million Euros. Acknowledgements This thesis is the final chapter in my academic career. For the first time I have been able to fully decide my own course of action, while at the same time embarking on journey to research something entirely new. There was no detailed road map to follow, only a general structure. I have to thank my supervisor dhr. dr. M.I. Dröes for his support and suggestions which have been invaluable, especially during the summer holidays. Also I would like to thank the University of Amsterdam for providing the education, which gave me the knowledge and tools to write this thesis. In addition I would like to thank the NVM for providing the house price data. Statement of originality This document is written by student V.M. van der Bijl, who declares to take full responsibility for the contents of this document. I declare that the text and the work presented in this document is original and that no sources other than those mentioned in the text and its references have been used in creating it. The Faculty of Economics and Business is responsible solely for the supervision of completion of the work, not for the contents. 1 De Nederlandse Vereniging van Makelaars o.g. en vastgoeddeskundigen 2 Table of contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 2 Statement of originality ........................................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 7 3. Data ............................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1. Shortfalls ................................................................................................................................ 22 4. Research method .......................................................................................................................... 23 5. Results ........................................................................................................................................... 25 5.1. The effect of Airbnb on house prices in Amsterdam ............................................................ 25 5.2. The effect of Airbnb on neighbour nuisance in Amsterdam ................................................. 29 5.3. Robustness check house prices ............................................................................................. 34 5.4. The economic significance of the effect of Airbnb on house prices in Amsterdam .............. 46 5.5. Robustness check nuisance ................................................................................................... 48 5.6. The effect of Airbnb and nuisance on house prices .............................................................. 53 5.7. Limitations and future research ............................................................................................ 55 6. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 56 References ............................................................................................................................................. 58 Appendix A ............................................................................................................................................ 60 3 1. Introduction The economy is changing. The new economy, the sharing economy, is getting traction with the public via start-ups like Uber and Airbnb. These start-ups with their disruptive business models try to shake up traditional industries to capture economic value. They do this by utilizing capital goods that are used inefficiently (Belk, 2014). Take houses for example. When the owners go on holiday the house is not used by them, but it is still fully furnished and ready to be lived in at almost no extra cost. Airbnb connects the home owners with travellers and gives them the opportunity to rent out their house while away from home. That way the house is being used more efficiently and the owners, Airbnb hosts, make some extra money. Airbnb, founded in 2008, has grown at a spectacular rate reaching an estimated value of 30 billion dollar in just eight years2. Providing travellers with over two million listings in more than 191 countries in 20163. Just over eleven thousands of these listings are located in Amsterdam where Airbnb has been active since 2009. Since the launch of Airbnb in the capital of the Netherlands, Amsterdam, there has been an increasing amount of media coverage about the side effects of this service. Papers, government officials and the municipality of Amsterdam have reported about issues such as nuisance caused by Airbnb guests, reduced housing stock for inhabitants of Amsterdam and increased house prices. This led to an investigation of the municipality of Amsterdam into the short term rental (STR) sector. In their report (municipality of Amsterdam, 2013) it is stated that illegal hotels are properties without a hotel licence where tourists pay a fee to rent a room. With this statement they effectively labelled almost all Airbnb listings as illegal hotels. Over the next three years the municipality of Amsterdam has developed rules about the maximum number of guests per property, maximum number of days rented out per year, the levy of tourist tax and safety. Even though the municipality of Amsterdam reported in May 2016 that 80% of the hosts abide by the rules4, there is still a lot of controversy about the nuisance caused by guests and the increasing house prices. This is depicted by a report by a report of the ING bank (ING, 2016) stating that people can get up to 100,000 Euros more on a mortgage for their house by using Airbnb. The argument being that the extra income generated by short term rental can cover the extra interest and mortgage payments. Two months later, in June 2016, an opinion article appears in the newspaper Het Parool written by Barbara Baarsma, a professor Economics at the University of Amsterdam (UvA), and Pieter van Dalen, a housing market economist at the Rabobank5. They disagree with the ING report and argue that the underlying assumptions are wrong. They base their argumentation on the following two points. First they question 2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/airbnb-files-to-raise-850-million-at-30-billion- valuation 3 https://www.airbnb.nl/about/about-us 4 http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2016/05/10/adam-werkt-samen-tegen-overlast-airbnb-a1403285 5 http://www.parool.nl/opinie/-airbnb-drijft-amsterdamse-huizenprijzen-echt-niet-op~a4314202/ 4 the notion that potential home owners are rational and will incorporate future Airbnb income in the price they are willing to pay for a house. As an example they take land leases where potential home owners do not (or barely) take in to account if the land lease is paid off or not. Second they are very firm on the fact that future Airbnb income may not be taking in to account by the bank when giving out a mortgage. They even go so far as to make a statement that if Airbnb influences the house prices, it will be via the nuisance channel and rather reducing the price instead of increasing it. To solve this controversy, the aim of this thesis is to answer the question: What is the effect of Airbnb on the house prices in Amsterdam? Since one of the channels, through which Airbnb might have an effect on the house prices, is the nuisance channel, this thesis also looks at what the effect is of Airbnb on nuisance in Amsterdam. The research in this thesis uses high grade house price data specially made available by the NVM. The Airbnb data comes from Inside
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