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Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

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Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Peer Reviewed Title: Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Journal Issue: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 8(2) Author: Suddeth, Robyn J, University of California, Davis Mount, Jeff, University of California, Davis Lund, Jay R, University of California - Davis Publication Date: 2010 Publication Info: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, John Muir Institute of the Environment, UC Davis Permalink: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9wr5j84g Keywords: levee, decision analysis, reliability, policy, Delta Abstract: California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has fragile levees subject to several trends that make them increasingly prone to failure. To assess the likely extent of Delta island flooding, this study presents an economic decision analysis approach for evaluating Delta levee upgrade and repair decisions for 34 major subsided agricultural islands that make up most of the Delta’s Primary Zone and include all subsided, non-urban islands. The decision analysis provides a quantitative framework to address several relevant questions about reasonable levee upgrade and repair investments. This initial analysis indicates that it is economically optimal not to upgrade levees on any of the 34 subsided Delta islands examined, mostly because levee upgrades are expensive and do not improve reliability much. If upgrades can improve reliability more, it becomes optimal to upgrade some levees. Our analysis also suggests that, accounting for land and asset values, it is not cost effective to repair between 18 and 23 of these islands when they fail. When property values for all islands were doubled, only four islands originally not repaired become cost effective to repair. The decision analysis provides a quantitative framework for addressing several relevant questions regarding reasonable levee upgrade and repair investments. These initial results may act as a springboard for discussion, and the decision analysis model as a working framework for islands of high priority. An inescapable conclusion of this analysis is that maintaining the current Delta landscape is unlikely to be economical from business and land use perspectives. eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. august 2010 Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Robyn Suddeth1, Jeffrey Mount, and Jay Lund Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 AbStRACt as a springboard for discussion, and the decision California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has frag- analysis model as a working framework for islands of ile levees subject to several trends that make them high priority. An inescapable conclusion of this anal- increasingly prone to failure. To assess the likely ysis is that maintaining the current Delta landscape is extent of Delta island flooding, this study presents an unlikely to be economical from business and land use economic decision analysis approach for evaluating perspectives. Delta levee upgrade and repair decisions for 34 major subsided agricultural islands that make up most of the Delta’s Primary Zone and include all subsided, KeyWORDS non-urban islands. The decision analysis provides a Levee, decision analysis, reliability, policy, Delta quantitative framework to address several relevant questions about reasonable levee upgrade and repair investments. This initial analysis indicates that it is IntRODUCtIOn: the DeLtA’S Levee SySteM economically optimal not to upgrade levees on any California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is cur- of the 34 subsided Delta islands examined, mostly rently defined by its 1,770 km (1,100 miles) of levees. because levee upgrades are expensive and do not The Delta levee network was developed during the improve reliability much. If upgrades can improve late 19th and early 20th centuries to reclaim more reliability more, it becomes optimal to upgrade some than 450,000 acres of freshwater and brackish marsh, levees. Our analysis also suggests that, accounting for mainly for agriculture. By the mid- and late-20th land and asset values, it is not cost effective to repair century, these levees became integral to local, state, between 18 and 23 of these islands when they fail. and federal efforts to export water for urban and When property values for all islands were doubled, agricultural use. Four drivers are increasing prob- only four islands originally not repaired become cost- abilities of levee failure and island flooding: sea level effective to repair. The decision analysis provides a rise, subsidence, changing inflows, and earthquakes quantitative framework for addressing several rel- (Mount and Twiss 2005; URS Corporation and J. R. evant questions regarding reasonable levee upgrade Benjamin & Associates 2009; Cayan 2008a, 2008b; and repair investments. These initial results may act Church and White 2006; Deverel 2007; IPCC 2007; Stewart and others 2005). Physically and financially, the Delta cannot easily withstand these increas- 1 Corresponding author: [email protected] ing pressures (Lund and others 2007, 2008, 2010). san francisco estuary & watershed science Deltas around the world are having similar problems failure highlighted the high costs of levee failures (Syvitski and others 2009). and caused some state planners to question the eco- nomic viability of funding repairs and upgrades, Physically, the Delta’s levee network is rigid and especially when this money might be applied towards brittle. Most levees were poorly constructed on other public benefits or focused on prioritized islands weak, seismically unstable foundations. They are the (L. Harder, Senate Hearing, May 2006) descendents of originally small, private structures that have been expanded to cope with gradual land Acting together, these physical and financial driv- subsidence, sea level rise, and erosion. This expan- ers or constraints are likely to shift the Delta from sion, accomplished by adding material to the top and its current configuration of narrow channels and sides, was, until recently, not subject to modern engi- subsided islands toward a system with several addi- neering standards. tional bodies of open water. In this analysis, we first present current estimates of failure probabilities Delta levees can fail in several ways (Linsley and oth- for Delta levees, based principally on the recently ers 1964; Wood 1977; Mount and Twiss 2005; Moss released Delta Risk Management Strategy (DRMS) and Eller 2007). Most commonly, levees fail from Phase 1 report (URS Corporation and J. R. Benjamin slumping, rupturing, erosion or overtopping during & Associates 2009), and identify resource allocation storm events, or when high winds create large waves decisions the State currently faces. We evaluate the at high tides. Levees also may fail on a relatively economic costs of maintaining the current levee con- calm day from internal degradation that has occurred figuration in the Delta and present a simplified, yet over time with seepage, or from slumping and crack- thoughtful, decision analysis to economically opti- ing that allows water to flow through and over the mize levee repair and upgrades for individual islands. levee. Seepage is common in most levees and usu- Our conclusions about upgrade and repair policies in ally does not lead to failure, but when water pressure the Delta extend those found in earlier studies (Logan gradients are great, seepage can erode material within 1989). Decision analysis is broadly used as a tool for and under the levee, causing sand boils on the levee public policy makers, both as a way to understand, interior that eventually lead to collapse. Poor founda- organize, and quantify a problem, and as a way to tions, weak construction materials, and rodents all compare the costs and benefits of various strategies. exacerbate these problems. Finally, a levee can fail Decision analysis is valuable because it forces the during earthquakes. Shaking causes the foundation or decision maker to articulate how various parameters embankments to lose cohesion, deform, and collapse. interact with each other, and identify a realistic and With continued levee degradation and increasing holistic set of alternatives (Hobbs and others 1997; external forces, these failure pressures are all likely to Cheng and others 2008; Lund 2009). become worse and more frequent (Mount and Twiss 2005). Without intervention, it seems likely that levee failures will increase in the future. Failure Probabilities: Certain Future, Uncertain timing The levees are under growing financial pressure as well, often competing with other public interests in Delta levees are a certain to fail. For more than 100 the Delta and elsewhere for funds, amidst great con- years, federal and state governments and Delta land- cern for the region’s declining ecosystem and native owners have adapted to this reality. If the past were a species. The fragile levee system depends largely on reliable predictor of the future, the state could simply the willingness of landowners and state and federal maintain the current Delta policy of supporting levee governments to invest in upgrading the levees or maintenance and repairs, fighting floods, and repair- repairing them when they fail. With 166 levee fail- ing islands when their levees fail. However, condi- ures over the past 100 years, that willingness to pay tions are not static in the Delta,
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