2018 Quebec Election – Calculatedpolitics.Com

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2018 Quebec election

Disclaimer: CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time) Projected election results in Quebec

Vote projections Seat projections

Liberal 30% 46

Parti Québécois 18.9% 14

CAQ 32.3% 57

Québec solidaire 16.3% 8

Other / Autre 2.6% 0

Trend line of all Quebec polls

last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time) 2018 Quebec election opinion polls:

last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Polling Firm: Date: Source: Lib. PQ CAQ QS Other Poll weight:

Forum 2018-09-30  28 20 33 17 2 0.284 Research Co. 2018-09-30  30 18 33 16 3 0.14 Ipsos 2018-09-28  31 18 32 16 3 0.161 Leger 2018-09-27  30 19 32 17 2 0.226 Mainstreet 2018-09-27  29 19.5 31.5 16.3 3.7 0.078 Ipsos 2018-09-23  30 20 30 16 4 0.006 Research Co. 2018-09-22  30 19 32 16 3 0.002 Leger 2018-09-17  30 21 31 14 4 0.008 CROP 2018-09-17  37 16 30 14 3 0.073 Forum 2018-09-15  22 24 32 19 3 0.004 Mainstreet 2018-09-15  28.6 21.5 29.1 17.1 3.7 0.001 Leger 2018-09-10  29 21 35 11 4 0.007 Mainstreet 2018-09-07  27.3 21.1 32.2 15.7 3.7 0 Leger 2018-08-28  32 19 37 8 4 0.005 Forum 2018-08-23  22 21 42 13 2 0.003

Quebec riding-by-riding vote projection:

last updated: October 1, 2018 at 07:39 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Notional Projected Riding name: incumbent Lib. PQ CAQ QS Other winner

Abitibi–Est LIB 31 24 27 16 3 LEANS LIB Abitibi–Ouest PQ 25 35 22 15 3 PQ Acadie LIB 61 7 16 14 2 LIB Anjou–Louis-Riel LIB 41 16 25 16 2 LIB Argenteuil LIB 30 24 33 11 2 LEANS CAQ Arthabaska CAQ 18 11 56 13 2 CAQ Beauce–Nord CAQ 24 3 62 8 2 CAQ Beauce–Sud LIB 38 3 49 8 3 CAQ Beauharnois PQ 20 30 32 15 3 LEANS CAQ Bellechasse LIB 37 9 44 9 2 CAQ Berthier PQ 11 31 40 15 3 CAQ Bertrand PQ 18 29 36 16 2 CAQ Blainville CAQ 20 21 44 14 1 CAQ Bonaventure PQ 32 39 12 15 2 PQ Borduas CAQ 12 24 43 18 2 CAQ Bourassa–Sauve LIB 51 13 20 13 2 LIB Bourget PQ 20 29 28 21 3 LEANS PQ Brome–Missisquoi LIB 32 15 37 16 1 LEANS CAQ Chambly CAQ 12 25 44 16 3 CAQ Champlain LIB 23 23 40 13 1 CAQ Chapleau LIB 45 13 24 14 3 LIB Charlesbourg LIB 29 11 43 12 5 CAQ Charleboix–Cote-de-Beaupre LIB 24 24 37 11 3 CAQ Chateauguay LIB 40 16 29 13 2 LIB Chauveau CAQ 17 7 64 10 3 CAQ Chicoutimi PQ 19 28 26 15 12 LEANS PQ Chomedey LIB 61 8 21 9 2 LIB Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere CAQ 20 8 59 11 3 CAQ Cote-du-Sud LIB 37 14 33 14 3 LEANS LIB D’Arcy–McGee LIB 81 1 9 7 2 LIB Deux-Montagnes CAQ 17 23 44 14 2 CAQ Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ 14 19 50 14 3 CAQ Dubuc LIB 30 25 28 13 3 LEANS LIB Duplessis PQ 28 34 21 15 3 LEANS PQ Fabre LIB 43 16 27 14 1 LIB Gaspe PQ 24 45 14 13 3 PQ Gatineau LIB 48 13 23 15 1 LIB Gouin QS 8 11 12 67 2 QS Granby CAQ 9 15 63 11 2 CAQ Groulx CAQ 21 22 41 14 2 CAQ Hochelaga-Maisonneuve PQ 9 24 17 46 4 QS Hull LIB 41 16 19 23 1 LIB Huntingdon LIB 40 14 32 12 3 LIB Iberville CAQ 16 23 44 16 1 CAQ Iles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 46 35 5 13 2 LIB Jacques-Cartier LIB 74 1 14 7 3 LIB Jean-Lesage LIB 24 14 31 22 8 LEANS CAQ Jean-Talon LIB 31 15 29 19 6 LEANS LIB Jean-Mance–Viger LIB 69 5 16 9 2 LIB Johnson CAQ 13 23 47 14 3 CAQ Joliette PQ 11 35 37 16 2 LEANS CAQ Jonquiere PQ 16 36 33 13 1 LEANS PQ L’Assomption CAQ 5 21 60 13 1 CAQ La Peltrie CAQ 20 5 62 9 4 CAQ La Piniere LIB 47 9 31 10 3 LIB La Prairie LIB 25 19 41 13 1 CAQ Labelle PQ 17 36 30 17 1 LEANS PQ Lac-Saint-Jean PQ 18 37 27 15 3 PQ LaFontaine LIB 64 7 18 10 2 LIB Laporte LIB 38 17 26 16 3 LIB Laurier-Dorion LIB 33 9 13 42 3 QS Laval-des-Rapides LIB 33 25 27 14 2 LEANS LIB Laviolette-Saint-Maurice LIB 31 21 34 13 2 LEANS CAQ Les Plaines 14 24 48 14 1 CAQ Levis CAQ 22 11 51 14 2 CAQ Lotbiniere-Frontenac LIB 36 11 40 10 2 LEANS CAQ Louis-Hebert LIB 36 12 37 12 3 TOSS-UP Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB 61 9 18 10 2 LIB Marie-Victorin PQ 17 29 28 22 4 TOSS-UP Marquette LIB 53 9 21 13 4 LIB Maskinonge LIB 28 19 38 14 2 CAQ Masson CAQ 9 27 49 14 2 CAQ Matane-Matapedia PQ 14 53 19 13 1 PQ Maurice-Richard LIB 29 23 21 25 2 LEANS LIB Megantic LIB 30 23 32 14 1 LEANS CAQ Mercier QS 12 11 13 62 2 QS Mille-Iles LIB 39 20 27 12 2 LIB Mirabel CAQ 11 25 50 13 1 CAQ Mont-Royal-Outremont LIB 56 5 15 20 3 LIB Montarville CAQ 21 18 45 14 1 CAQ Montmorency LIB 27 11 44 12 6 CAQ Nelligan LIB 70 3 18 6 3 LIB Nicolet-Becancour CAQ 17 15 48 17 4 CAQ Notre-Dame-de-Grace LIB 65 3 13 15 5 LIB Orford LIB 32 20 30 17 1 LEANS LIB Papineau LIB 38 19 25 16 3 LIB Pointe-aux-Trembles PQ 15 34 33 16 3 LEANS PQ Pontiac LIB 62 5 17 15 1 LIB Portneuf LIB 29 9 48 10 4 CAQ Prevost 13 29 41 15 1 CAQ Rene-Levesque PQ 13 47 24 15 1 PQ Repentigny CAQ 14 24 47 14 1 CAQ Richelieu PQ 16 32 36 13 4 LEANS CAQ Richmond LIB 29 21 32 16 3 LEANS CAQ Rimouski PQ 18 31 18 31 3 TOSS-UP Riviere-du-Loup–Temiscouata LIB 39 18 26 15 2 LIB Robert-Baldwin LIB 76 2 13 7 2 LIB Roberval LIB 45 28 16 10 2 LIB Rosemont PQ 20 25 21 31 3 LEANS QS Rousseau PQ 9 30 46 14 1 CAQ Rouyn-Noranda–Temiscamingue LIB 26 24 25 23 1 TOSS-UP Saint-Francois LIB 27 25 26 18 4 TOSS-UP Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB 42 15 19 20 4 LIB Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ 17 22 43 16 2 CAQ Saint-Jean PQ 17 25 41 15 2 CAQ Saint-Jerome PQ 11 28 40 20 1 CAQ Saint-Laurent LIB 69 4 11 12 4 LIB Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS 19 18 14 47 3 QS Sainte-Rose LIB 30 21 34 14 1 LEANS CAQ Sanguinet PQ 17 27 41 13 2 CAQ Sherbrooke LIB 24 23 24 25 3 TOSS-UP Soulanges LIB 41 21 16 18 4 LIB Taillon PQ 20 25 32 21 1 LEANS CAQ Taschereau PQ 17 22 24 28 10 LEANS QS Terrebonne PQ 13 28 44 14 1 CAQ Trois-Rivieres LIB 27 21 31 18 2 LEANS CAQ Ungava LIB 36 28 21 11 4 LIB Vachon PQ 23 25 34 15 2 CAQ Vanier-Les Rivieres LIB 30 9 45 12 4 CAQ Vaudreuil LIB 51 11 24 11 3 LIB Vercheres PQ 9 34 40 16 1 LEANS CAQ Verdun LIB 41 17 20 19 3 LIB Viau LIB 52 10 16 20 3 LIB Vimont LIB 39 18 28 12 3 LIB Westmount–Saint-Louis LIB 67 3 14 12 4 LIB

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