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Africa Regional Summary Africa Regional Summary October 1, 2013 Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com Executive Summary The threat of sophisticated and well-orchestrated Islamist militant attacks reemerged on the continent after al-Shabaab militants attacked Nairobi's Westgate Mall and held dozens hostage during a four-day siege. The incident left at least 67 people dead, hundreds wounded and prompted bolstered security against potential attacks throughout Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and South Africa. Meanwhile, Islamist insurgents in West Africa made a clear signal that they still constitute a threat to regional stability, as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) conducted a suicide bombing in Mali's northern city of Timbuktu, while Tuareg rebels and Malian soldiers clashed in Kidal. Furthermore, Boko Haram in northern Nigeria has retained their ability to inflict major casualties against civilian and government targets, indicated lastly by the killing of at least 70 students in Yobe State, despite an intensive and persistent government crackdown against the group. Highly anticipated legislative elections were held in Guinea for the first time in over one HIGHdecade RISK following numerous postponements; however, the polls were overshadowed by incidents of unrest and politically motivated violence in the lead-up to the vote. Despite a peaceful election day, the E.U. observer mission's confirmation of electoral irregularities elevates the potential for protests and subsequent violence from October 2, when provincial results are expected. Moreover, Cameroon conducted peaceful parliamentary and local elections, in which President Paul Biya's ruling party CPDM is expected to win a landslide victory. The volatility surrounding political demonstrations in nations under more authoritarian regimes became evident as Angolan police dispersed protesters and arrested foreign journalists covering the event in Luanda. Meanwhile, in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa, 2 opposition| P a g e rallies by both the emerging Blue Party and the main opposition faction Unity for Page Democracy and Justice (UDJ) were subjugated to harassment, detainment of senior 2 members and forceful disruptions by police. Elsewhere, following a reduction in the restrictions against public gatherings in Ghana, several civil society groups and opposition parties have announced their intent to protest in Accra during the month of October against issues ranging from government corruption to utility increments. In addition, peaceful demonstrations were continued in Tanzania by dissident factions against the Constitutional Review Bill, and further rallies are slated to be held over the coming weeks. Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past two weeks. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below. HIGH RISK DRC ......................................................................................................................... 4 Mali ......................................................................................................................... 6 Nigeria ..................................................................................................................... 8 South Sudan ........................................................................................................... 11 MEDIUM RISK Angola ................................................................................................................... 13 Cameroon .............................................................................................................. 15 Ethiopia ................................................................................................................. 18 Guinea ................................................................................................................... 20 Ivory Coast ............................................................................................................. 22 Kenya .................................................................................................................... 24 South Africa ............................................................................................................ 27 Uganda .................................................................................................................. 29 LOW RISK Ghana .................................................................................................................... 32 Tanzania ................................................................................................................ 34 Zambia ................................................................................................................... 37 Notable Dates for the Period of ............................................................................................. 39 Page 3 Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com HIGH RISK DRC On September 19, Kinshasa announced that 100 of an estimated 1700 fighters in the rebel M23 faction are not considered eligible for amnesty or reintegration in the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC). Suspected rebels affiliated to the M23 reportedly killed at least ten civilians in Bukoma, close to Rutshuru in North Kivu. The militants are reported to have been carrying out raids against Nyatura militia when the killings took place. On September 21, two Chinese mining managers and a police officer were killed by armed assailants in an attack on a mineral and gold transport convoy, in Orientale Province, south of Bunia. We advise against travel to outlying rural areas, particularly North Kivu, given ongoing volatility and criminality, while restricting essential travel to Kinshasa. Back to Table of Contents ASSESSMENTS Developments with M23 Negotiations between the M23 and Kinshasa are ongoing and slated to conclude at the beginning of October. However, vast divides persist between each side's demands. The M23 hinges its disarmament on the neutralization of the Hutu rebel Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and the repatriation of Congolese nationals currently living in Rwanda. Meanwhile, the DRC's announcement that 100 largely high- ranking M23 fighters could face severe penalties, including capital punishment and long term jail sentences could serve as a disincentive for the group to finalize an agreement. Furthermore, should further allegations of M23 attacks in the eastern provinces emerge, there is a credible possibility that Kinshasa may cancel the ceasefire and instigate further FARDC offensives against the M23. In the event that hostilities renew, Rwanda, an alleged backer of the M23, is likely to increase its rhetoric against Kinshasa. Given the recent deployment of Rwandan soldiers to the border, regional states have become concerned over a near-medium term conflict between Kinshasa and Kigali. Page Threats to mining sector in east 4 The convoy attack follows a similar attack on a mineral transport convoy in which another Chinese miner died in June, also in Orientale. Meanwhile, the Simba Mai-Mai group recently killed eight local Congolese hostages captured from the Nyanga and Kumu tribes, who often work for mining operations in Orientale. The fact that both foreigners and locals cooperating with mining companies have been targeted underscores a wide range of threats for various groups related to the lucrative sector. The incidents underscore volatility throughout Orientale Province in relation to the mining sector. Mining and other business operations in DRC’s eastern regions face Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com persistently volatile conditions due to a variety of security threats including: attacks by rebel groups and rogue Mai-Mais, criminal operations to abscond with materials and resources, and aggrieved locals who allege that outside companies do not promote local community development. Local communities in mining regions have previously been engaged in land disputes with mining companies, claiming land infringement as well as environmental damage to the areas around mining operations. This prevalent disgruntlement with outside mining ventures exacerbates threats, as locals may be more likely to hinder the continuity of business operations while also gaining monetary benefits from the theft of the mineral resources. Given the lack of security, persistent criminality and militancy, and widespread arms proliferation, such attacks on mining operations are likely to continue. Additionally, although mineral convoys are accompanied by Congolese policemen, there is a possibility that members of local security forces are complicit in the attacks. There is a potential that these policemen, in addition to local informants who may be engaged to follow the movements of convoys, likely provide details to assailants that allow them to attack convoys at the most vulnerable point on their routes Corruption is rampant throughout the bureaucracy and all branches of security forces, including the military and police, in the DRC. Low wages and scant monitoring or transparency provide little incentive for such state employees to crackdown on this trend, which is likely to continue to lead to inside job attacks on mineral operations in the east. RECOMMENDATIONS 1. We advise against travel to outlying rural areas, particularly North Kivu, given ongoing volatility
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