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North Carolina Supplemental Retirement Plans Investment Performance March 31, 2013

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North Carolina Supplemental Retirement Plans Investment Performance March 31, 2013 North Carolina Supplemental Retirement Plans Investment Performance March 31, 2013 Services provided by Mercer Investment Consulting, Inc. Table of Contents Table of Contents 1. Capital Markets Commentary 2. Executive Summary 3. Total Plan 4. US Equity 5. International Equity 6. Global Equity 7. US Fixed Income 8. Stable Value 9. GoalMaker Portfolios 10. Appendix Capital Markets Commentary 1 Performance Summary: Quarter in Review Market Performance Market Performance First Quarter 2013 1 Year Russell 3000 11.1 Russell 3000 14.6 S&P 500 10.6 S&P 500 14.0 Russell 1000 11.0 Russell 1000 14.4 Russell 1000 Growth 9.5 Russell 1000 Growth 10.1 Russell 1000 Value 12.3 Russell 1000 Value 18.8 Russell Midcap 13.0 Russell Midcap 17.3 Russell 2000 12.4 Russell 2000 16.3 Russell 2000 Growth 13.2 Russell 2000 Growth 14.5 Russell 2000 Value 11.6 Russell 2000 Value 18.1 MSCI ACWI 6.5 MSCI ACWI 10.6 MSCI ACWI Small Cap 9.6 MSCI ACWI Small Cap 13.7 MSCI AC World ex US 3.2 MSCI AC World ex US 8.4 MSCI EAFE 5.1 MSCI EAFE 11.3 MSCI EAFE Small Cap 8.4 MSCI EAFE Small Cap 13.3 MSCI EM -1.6 MSCI EM 2.0 Barclays Aggregate -0.1 Barclays Aggregate 3.8 Barclays T-Bill 1-3 months 0.0 Barclays T-Bill 1-3 months 0.1 Barclays US TIPS -0.4 Barclays US TIPS 5.7 Barclays Treasury -0.2 Barclays Treasury 3.1 Barclays Gov/Credit -0.2 Barclays Gov/Credit 4.6 Barclays High Yield 2.9 Barclays High Yield 13.1 Citi WGBI -2.8 Citi WGBI -0.7 JP GBI-EM Global Div. -0.1 JP GBI-EM Global Div. 7.7 NAREIT Equity REITs 8.1 NAREIT Equity REITs 17.1 NAREIT Global REITs 6.3 NAREIT Global REITs 21.1 HFRI FOF Composite 3.4 HFRI FOF Composite 4.8 DJ UBS Commodity -1.1 DJ UBS Commodity -3.0 S&P GSCI Commodity 0.5 S&P GSCI Commodity -5.0 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Returns (%) Returns (% ) Source: Standard & Poor's, Russell, MSCI Barra, NAREIT, Bloomberg Source: Standard & Poor's, Russell, MSCI Barra, NAREIT, Bloomberg Mercer Investment Consulting, Inc. 2 Macro Environment: Economic Review Annual GDP Growth The economy added an average of only 168k jobs per month in the 8 first quarter. The unemployment rate fell from 7.8% to 7.6%, but a decline in the labor force accounted for a significant portion of the 6 improvement. 4 The consensus forecast for 2013 growth is just 2.0%. Positive catalysts include the housing market, improved household 2 finances, and the further development of domestic energy sources. (%) Although recent data suggests the possibility of another spring 0 slowdown, the risk of a recession in 2013 still appears relatively low. The economy appears to be handling the fiscal drag of higher -2 taxes and lower spending relatively well so far. Despite negative headlines in Cyprus and Italy, European bond -4 markets were relatively calm in the first quarter. The ECB’s 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 willingness to act as a lender of last resort to governments and banks to prevent a major financial disaster or disorderly collapse Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis has lowered market stress and volatility. However, ongoing World Economic Growth economic weakness is intensifying political pressures, increasing (Projections as of March 2013) the risk that the crisis could resurface due to austerity or bailout 10.0 fatigue. 2013 8.1 8.0 Weak growth in the developed world is weighing on emerging 8.0 2014 economies through financial and trade links. Foreign direct 6.2 investment in emerging market economies tumbled 15% last year 6.0 5.2 and imports to the developed world shrunk for the first time since 4.0 3.5 the financial crisis. Despite concerns regarding the ability of 2.7 3.1 (%) 2.0 1.7 1.7 countries to transition to the next stage of growth, the prospects for 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 emerging economies are bright, although growth is unlikely to 0.0 return to heady pre-financial crisis levels for the foreseeable future. -2.0 -1.4 -1.5 -4.0 US UK Italy India Brazil Spain China Japan Germany Source: Bloomberg Mercer Investment Consulting, Inc. 3 Macro Environment: Currencies Performance of Foreign Currencies versus the US Dollar On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar advanced 1.8% in the first Mexican Peso 4.3 4.0 Quarter quarter. The dollar benefitted from a continued plunge in the yen, 1.2 Brazilian Real -9.8 1 Year 1.1 which lost 7.9% as the markets anticipated further BoJ policy Indian Rupee -6.3 1.1 easing. Uncertainty surrounding the Italian elections and the New Zealand Dollar 2.3 0.3 Cyprus banking system contributed to a 2.8% decline in the euro. Chinese Yuan 1.4 -1.0 Emerging market currencies were generally flat to slightly positive. Australian Dollar -1.2 -2.5 Canadian Dollar -1.9 -2.6 Taiwan Dollar -1.0 -2.8 Euro -3.9 -3.6 Swiss Franc -5.0 -4.3 Korean Won 2.3 -6.5 GB Pound -5.1 -7.9 Japanese Yen -12.1 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 Returns (%) Source: Bloomberg Most currencies look expensive to the dollar based on relative purchasing power parity, but large scale QE and the US current Currency Valuation versus US Dollar (Based on Relative PPP) account deficit suggest that this may be warranted. While the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, US economic growth has 60 been better than most of the rest of the developed world, which Euro UK Pound Overvalued relative to the dollar could boost the dollar. Yen Swiss Franc 40 In early April, the BoJ announced a stimulus program in an attempt to hit a 2% inflation target. While new bond purchases were largely 20 anticipated, the scope exceeded market expectations and could (%) further weaken the yen. However, we note that shorting the yen 0 has been a favorite play among currency speculators, hinting the potential for a reversal. -20 The ECB has resisted monetary stimulus, which has been a Undervalued relative to the dollar positive for the euro. Nevertheless, the Eurozone still faces daunting economic challenges and a refocus on macro risks -40 leaves the euro susceptible to declines. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bloomberg Mercer Investment Consulting, Inc. 4 Asset Class: US Equities – Style, Sector, Cap Performance Style and Capitalization Market Performance Broad Market 11.1 Russell 3000 14.6 Quarter 10.6 Stocks posted strong gains in the first quarter with the Russell S&P 500 14.0 1 Year 11.0 3000 Index returning 11.1%. Russell 1000 14.4 9.5 Russell 1000 Growth 10.1 Market Cap 12.3 Russell 1000 Value 18.8 13.0 Large Caps: The Russell 1000 Index gained 11.0% in the first Russell Midcap 17.3 11.5 quarter and the S&P 500 returned 10.6%. Given the significant Russell Mid Growth 12.8 14.2 spike in the markets, it was not surprising that large cap stocks Russell Mid Value 21.5 12.4 lagged mid cap and small cap stocks. Russell 2000 16.3 13.2 Mid Caps: The Russell Midcap Index surged 13.0% and was the Russell 2000 Growth 14.5 11.6 best performing index for quarter. Russell 2000 Value 18.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Small Caps: Small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks with Returns (%) the Russell 2000 Index returning 12.4%. Over the last year, small Source: Standard & Poor's, Russell, Bloomberg cap stocks have outperformed large cap stocks (S&P 500) by 230 basis points. Sector Performance 15.8 Style Health Care 25.7 14.7 Consumer Staples 20.2 Value vs. Growth: Value stocks outperformed growth stocks in 13.6 the large cap and mid cap segments, while small cap growth Utilities 17.6 12.3 surpassed small cap value stocks. Mid cap value was the best Consumer Discretionary 20.2 12.0 performing style, gaining 14.2%. Industrials 16.9 11.9 Financials 17.7 Sector 10.5 Energy 10.7 The materials, information technology, and telecommunication 8.8 Telecomm Services 25.4 services sectors were the laggards for the quarter, while defensive 5.0 sectors such as health care and consumer staples outperformed Info Tech -1.1 Quarter 4.8 the broad market. Materials 8.9 1 Year -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Returns (%) Source: Russell 1000 GICs Sector Mercer Investment Consulting, Inc. 5 Asset Class: US Equities – Valuation Review S&P500 – P/E Ratio Stock valuations show a less favorable picture than a quarter ago. 50 Shiller's (10-yr Avg. Real Earnings) The P/E ratio on trailing reported earnings advanced from 16.5 to 45 Normalized Earnings 17.7, which is slightly above the median since 1956. The reported 40 Reported Earnings P/E ratio continues to be supported by historically high corporate 35 profitability; however, there are signs that profit margins are 30 topping out. Productivity growth has waned in recent quarters and 25 it appears US corporations have exhausted slashing labor costs as 20 a mean of increasing profits.
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