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Further Natural Hazard Information

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Further Natural Hazard Information Update of hazard Information for 2015 Lifelines Risk & Responsibilities Report S. Dellow E.R. Abbott D.W. Heron B.J. Scott W.F. Ries B. Lukovic GNS Science Consultancy Report 2016/40 May 2016 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited (GNS Science) exclusively for and under contract to Horizons Regional Council. Unless otherwise agreed in writing by GNS Science, GNS Science accepts no responsibility for any use of or reliance on any contents of this report by any person other than Horizons Regional Council and shall not be liable to any person other than Horizons Regional Council, on any ground, for any loss, damage or expense arising from such use or reliance. Use of Data: Date that GNS Science can use associated data: May 2016 BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCE Dellow, G.D.; Abbott, E.R.; Heron, D.W.; Scott, B.J.; Ries, W.F.; Lukovic, B. 2016. Update of hazard Information for 2015 Lifelines Risk & Responsibilities Report, GNS Science Consultancy Report 2016/40. 33 p. Project Number 470W1299-00 Confidential 2016 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................III 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1 2.0 PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION MODELLING...................................................... 2 2.1 INFERRED SITE SUB-SOIL CLASS ....................................................................... 2 2.2 INCORPORATION OF SITE CLASS IN PGA ESTIMATES........................................... 3 3.0 BASIC LIQUEFACTION HAZARD MAPPING............................................................ 8 4.0 DIGITISING OF EXISTING LANDSLIDE INFORMATION ........................................13 5.0 VOLCANIC HAZARD MAPPING UPDATES............................................................15 5.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................15 5.2 ACTIVE VOLCANIC CENTRES ............................................................................15 5.2.1 Taupo Volcanic Centre.....................................................................................16 5.2.2 Taranaki Volcano .............................................................................................16 5.2.3 Tongariro National Park Volcanoes..................................................................20 5.3 ASHFALL THICKNESS .......................................................................................24 5.4 ASHFALL IMPACTS ...........................................................................................28 6.0 SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................29 7.0 REFERENCES .........................................................................................................30 GNS Science Consultancy Report 2016/40 i Confidential 2016 FIGURES Figure 1 Site sub-soil class as per NZS 1170.5 (2004). ............................................................................. 4 Figure 2 Peak Ground Acceleration with an annual exceedence probability of 1 in 500 incorporating NZS 1170.5 site sub-soil class................................................................................ 5 Figure 3 Peak Ground Acceleration with an annual exceedence probability of 1 in 1000 incorporating NZS 1170.5 site sub-soil class................................................................................ 6 Figure 4 Peak Ground Acceleration with an annual exceedence probability of 1 in 2500 incorporating NZS 1170.5 site sub-soil class................................................................................ 7 Figure 5 Liquefaction hazard map for Horowhenua District, Tararua District, Manawatu District and Palmerston North City. ........................................................................................................10 Figure 6 Liquefaction hazard map for Rangitikei District and Wanganui District. .....................................11 Figure 7 Liquefaction hazard map for Ruapehu District............................................................................12 Figure 8 Large landslides mapped in the Horizons Region (Dellow and Dymond, 2008).........................14 Figure 9 Volcanic centres with the potential to affect the Horizons Region during eruptive episodes.....................................................................................................................................15 2 Figure 10 Ashfall depths for a scenario where approximately 0.1 km of material is erupted from Mt Taranaki. ....................................................................................................................................17 2 Figure 11 Ashfall depths for a scenario where approximately 0.5 km of material is erupted from Mt Taranaki. ....................................................................................................................................18 Figure 12 Ashfall depths for the maximum credible event for Mt Taranaki where approximately 1 km2 of material is erupted. In the Horizons Region maximum ashfall depths are expected to be 50 mm. ..............................................................................................................................19 2 Figure 13 Ashfall depths for a scenario where approximately 0.01 km of material is erupted from Mt Ruapehu................................................................................................................................22 2 Figure 14 Ashfall depths for a maximum credible scenario where approximately 0.1 km of material is erupted from Mt Ruapehu.......................................................................................................23 3 Figure 15 The 0.01 km eruption volume (representative of the 100 year return period ashfall event) for Tongariro and Ruapehu volcanoes. ...........................................................................25 3 Figure 16 Ashfall contours for eruption volumes of 0.1 km for Tongariro, Ruapehu, Taupo and Taranaki volcanoes. ...................................................................................................................26 3 Figure 17 Ashfall contours for an eruption volume of 1.0 km from Mt Taranaki. For Mt Taranaki this is equivalent to the 2500 year return period event and is also the likely maximum credible event (MCE) for this volcano. ......................................................................................27 TABLES Table 1 Modified Mercalli Shaking Intensity Return Periods (in years) for the main urban areas in the Horizons Region..................................................................................................................... 3 Table 2 Correlation between Modified Mercalli (MM) Shaking Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) from Hancox et al. (2002). ............................................................................ 3 GNS Science Consultancy Report 2016/40 ii Confidential 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Manawatu-Wanganui Lifelines Advisory Group is undertaking a project to update its 2005 Risks and Responsibilities report. This report presents and describes the updated hazards information provided to Horizons Regional Council by GNS Science for use by the Manawatu-Wanganui Lifelines Advisory Group and includes the following items as per the scope of work agreed with Horizons Regional Council: 1. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) modelling. 2. Inferred earthquake ground shaking site sub-soil class information. 3. PGA estimates incorporating inferred site sub-soil class information. 4. Basic liquefaction hazard mapping. 5. Digitisation of existing landslide information. 6. Volcanic hazard mapping updates. NZS1170.5 site sub-soil class has been inferred from the 1:250,000 Geological Map of New Zealand (Heron, 2015) and presented as a map and GIS file. The site sub-soil class information has been combined with the National Seismic Hazard Model (Stirling et al., 2012) to produce a 0.05° by 0.05° grid of PGAs that take into account the estimated site sub-soil class for return periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. A regional scale liquefaction hazard map has been compiled from consideration of the latest 1:250,000 Geological map of New Zealand and accounts of liquefaction from historical earthquakes. The liquefaction hazard map gives a five-level classification of liquefaction hazard identifying areas as having very high, high, moderate, low or no liquefaction hazard. The map is suitable for assessing where further investigation of liquefaction might be required as part of a package of work to improve the resiliency of assets and infrastructure. Landslide data shown on Figure 1 of Dellow and Dymond (2008) has been extracted and supplied in digital format to Horizons Regional Council. Five scenario eruption events have also been modelled. Eruption scenarios of 0.1 km3, 0.5 km3 and a maximum credible event (MCE) of 1 km3 for Mt Taranaki, and a 0.01 km3 and an MCE of 0.1 km3 for Mt Ruapehu have been produced. Volcanic ashfall maps for T = 100, 500 and 2500 year return periods for three volcanic centres (Mt Taranaki, and the Tongariro National Park volcanoes Ruapehu and Tongariro and Taupo) have been produced. Metadata accompanies the digital datasets supplied as part of this contract. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2016/40 iii Confidential 2016 1.0 INTRODUCTION The Manawatu-Wanganui
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