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World Television WORLD TELEVISION Heineken What's Brewing Seminar 21st March 2014 Heineken - What's Brewing Seminar - 21st March 2014 Heineken George Toulantas, Director Investor Relations Roland Pirmez, Regional President, Heineken Asia Pacific QUESTIONS FROM Sanjeet Aujla, Credit Suisse Analyst, Société Générale Jon Fell, Ash Park Capital Trevor Stirling, Sanford Bernstein Tony Bucalo, Santander Olivier Nicolai, UBS Page 2 Heineken - What's Brewing Seminar - 21st March 2014 Introduction George Toulantas, Director Investor Relations Good afternoon everyone and welcome to our What’s Brewing Seminar here in London and to everyone who's listening to this seminar on the webcast as well. I'm very excited to update you all on our business today in the Asia Pacific region, which now, following the acquisition of Asia Pacific Breweries in 2012, represents close to 20% of our Group operating - or consolidated - I should say consolidated operating profit. So today's presenter, Roland Pirmez was appointed Heineken's Asia Pacific Region President and CEO of APB last year and prior to that he was Managing Director of Heineken's operations across a number of markets, including Angola, Thailand, Russia and of course CEO of our joint venture Asia Pacific Breweries from 2008 to 2012. So I'll hand over to Roland now who will take you through the presentation which will then be followed by Q&A as well. Thank you Roland. Heineken: Positioned for growth in Asia Pacific Roland Pirmez, Regional President, Heineken Asia Pacific Good afternoon, a very exciting time for me because first it's the first time that I'm doing this kind of nice, exciting exercise, but also very exciting because I will tell you a very nice story about the region, Asia Pacific. First the agenda, I will try to describe how attractive is the region for Heineken, also why we believe and we are sure that we have a very nice winning position and a unique position in the Asia Pacific region. I will give you a short update about APB's result in 2013 to give you some flavour of the regional priorities and of course some key market updates like China and Vietnam. The region itself - as you know Asia Pacific the key word is growth and as you know in our business the growth of the business is mainly coming from the population, the demographic - a favourable demographic, GDP growth, middle class growing are very important things, the outcome is of course the consumption per capita. And there you can see in Asia the potential growth is there, the average consumption per capita in Asia is only 29 litres per year per capita, compared to the average world of 48 and 59 in Europe. But what you can see in Asia is diversity; we have very diverse markets in Asia. It's a mix of emerging markets and mature markets, where you can see the highest consumption per capita is mainly in the mature market like Australia with 79 litres, and you have emerging markets with a huge potential, the best example is of course India, we have a huge population, GDP growth, a very young population and you have only two litres of beer per capita, per year, a huge opportunity for us. The second favourable demographic is a very, very young population; where you can see the percentage of the population under the age of 35, the average of Asia it's above Page 3 Heineken - What's Brewing Seminar - 21st March 2014 Europe with 52% compared to 41% in Europe, but the most important thing once again is diversity. And you can see we have a very diverse picture, with of course a little bit outstanding China, where you don't have such a young population because of the one child policies and you have a very exciting time like Cambodia, the Philippines, and Laos - where we have a very, very young population - like Laos where you have 73% of the population that are under the age of 35. Wealth, the middleclass - as you know the bulk of our business is middleclass people enjoying a beer and you can see the trend in example four markets, China, India and Vietnam or Thailand, you can see first the proportion of the middleclass is growing very, very fast and most important also is the size of these population, you can see China, you know the numbers, the number look always very impressive, you have 464 million people who will be in 2017 in the middleclass. Vietnam we have 25 million people who will be in the middleclass. And you can see in Vietnam the average growth for the next five years will be 23% for the upper middleclass and 29% for the middleclass with income above US $10,000 per year. A very exciting time, I don't need to explain to you, everybody has seen the graph of consumption per capita versus GDP and the GDP is always driving more consumption of beer. Urbanisation, one of the key drivers it is very clear that this example in Vietnam the consumption per capita is twice bigger in urban areas and then in the rural areas, because of affordability, accessibility and GDP. And when you go back to the region of urbanisation - once again we have a diverse picture, but you can see the potential, we have many markets that we are operating in, it's a very low urbanisation - like Cambodia, like Vietnam, like Thailand compared to a mature market like South Korea. What is also interesting in Asia is a little bit of a different way of urbanisation. In number we have a number of cities, in Asia we have megacities, you have a huge concentration of the population. Don't forget that when you go to the top ten megacities in the world eight of them are coming from Asia and the top seven is Asia, from Tokyo to Shanghai, to Jakarta, or Bangkok. And when you see our portfolio and you see our expertise of sales and marketing capabilities we are very, very well equipped to work in the megacities with our portfolio of brands. The premium segment, most importantly it's very clear when you have urbanisation, favourable demographics and GDP growth, the IPS segment is growing faster than the mainstream and you can see the forecast of the IPS segment in the region, it's a growth of 8.7% compared to the mainstream of 3.5% the IPS segment will grow faster than the market itself. When you can see also in the current picture of the IPS we still have a lot of room to increase the IPS market share in many beer markets. You can see for example in Asia Pacific the IPS market share in the total beer market is only 3.9 with a different picture, a quite diverse situation, compared to the average in Europe of 10. And you can see the huge potential that we have and especially with our portfolio of brands with Heineken Page 4 Heineken - What's Brewing Seminar - 21st March 2014 and Tiger and all of the global brands in some markets like China, today the IPS market is only 2% of the total market. But very interesting in Vietnam, showing us what we can do when we are building the IPS segment, don't forget that in Vietnam we are the leading company in the IPS segment. We have been able in Vietnam in 20 years to build the IPS segment with 15% market share. This is what we can do in some markets. Growth - it's very clear that all of the fundamentals are in place in Asia to have growth of the beer market and after that you see worldwide it is very clear that for the next five years the majority of the incremental volumes will come from the Asia region. Of course China, 50% of the incremental volumes worldwide will come from China, not a big surprise. I think the most important is to see a little more of the details - when you see 25 million hectolitres will come from Southeast Asia, or Pacific, of which the majority will come from Vietnam. The forecast 15 million hectolitres will come from Vietnam within the next five years. The rest of Asia, the majority of these 15 million hectolitres will come from India, of which five million hectolitres of growth incremental volumes will come from India. In summary all of the fundamentals are in place in Asia to have growth of the beer market. It is very clear that this is the place to be. After that we have a really winning position in Asia and especially after the acquisition of APB and I will explain to you why. First - footprint, we have the largest footprint in the Asia Pacific region. We are operating in 20 countries, we have 52 breweries, 10,000 employees, 50 brands, but most importantly in 14 markets we have a broad leadership position. We are number one or number two. We have the best example and it's well known, we are number two in Vietnam, we are number one in India, we are number one in Indonesia. On top of that we have also everywhere an IPS leadership position. We are number two IPS player in China, we are number one in Thailand, we are number two in South Korea, and we are number two in Australia via our joint venture with Lion Nathan. We have a very large footprint, we have a broad leadership position in many markets, if not we are one of the leading players in the IPS.
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