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RESEA R C H R E P O R T HEA L TH HEA L TH The Impact of the Congestion Charging EFF E CTS EFF E CTS Scheme on Air Quality in London INSTITUTE INSTITUTE Part 1. Emissions Modeling and Analysis of 101 Federal Street, Suite 500 Air Pollution Measurements Number 155 Boston, MA 02110, USA Part 2. Analysis of the Oxidative Potential of +1-617-488-2300 April 2011 www.healtheffects.org Particulate Matter Frank Kelly, H. Ross Anderson, Ben Armstrong, Richard Atkinson, RESEA R CH Ben Barratt, Sean Beevers, Dick Derwent, David Green, REPO R T Ian Mudway, and Paul Wilkinson Number 155 April 2011 Includes a Commentary by the Institute’s Health Review Committee The Impact of the Congestion Charging Scheme on Air Quality in London Part 1. Emissions Modeling and Analysis of Air Pollution Measurements Part 2. Analysis of the Oxidative Potential of Particulate Matter Frank Kelly, H. Ross Anderson, Ben Armstrong, Richard Atkinson, Ben Barratt, Sean Beevers, Dick Derwent, David Green, Ian Mudway, and Paul Wilkinson with a Commentary by the HEI Health Review Committee Research Report 155 Health Effects Institute Boston, Massachusetts Trusted Science · Cleaner Air · Better Health Publishing history: The Web version of this document was posted at www.healtheffects.org in April and May 2011. Citation for Research Report 155 in its entirety Kelly F, Anderson HR, Armstrong B, Atkinson R, Barratt B, Beevers S, Derwent D, Green D, Mudway I, Wilkinson P. 2011. The Impact of the Congestion Charging Scheme on Air Quality in London. Research Report 155. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 1 only Kelly F, Anderson HR, Armstrong B, Atkinson R, Barratt B, Beevers S, Derwent D, Green D, Mudway I, Wilkinson P. 2011. Part 1. Emissions modeling and analysis of air pollution measurements. In: The Impact of the Congestion Charging Scheme on Air Quality in London. Research Report 155. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 2 only Kelly F, Anderson HR, Armstrong B, Atkinson R, Barratt B, Beevers S, Derwent D, Green D, Mudway I, Wilkinson P. 2011. Part 2. Analysis of the oxidative potential of particulate matter. In: The Impact of the Congestion Charging Scheme on Air Quality in London. Research Report 155. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. © 2011 Health Effects Institute, Boston, Mass., U.S.A. Cameographics, Belfast, Me., Compositor. Printed by Recycled Paper Printing, Boston, Mass. Library of Congress Catalog Number for the HEI Report Series: WA 754 R432. Cover paper: made with at least 55% recycled content, of which at least 30% is post-consumer waste; free of acid and elemental chlorine. Text paper: made with 100% post-consumer waste recycled content; acid free; no chlorine used in processing. The book is printed with soy-based inks and is of permanent archival quality. CONTENTS About HEI vii About This Report ix Preface xi HEI STATEMENT 1 INVESTIGATORS’ REPORT Part 1 by Kelly et al. 5 ABSTRACT 5 INTRODUCTION 7 Historical Background of London’s Air Quality 7 Air Pollution in London Today 8 London’s Air Quality Strategy 9 The CCS in London 9 The CCS and Air Quality in London 10 SPECIFIC AIMS 11 MODELING THE AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS OF THE CCS IN LONDON 12 Introduction 12 Methods 12 The King’s College LET for Road Traffic 12 The King’s College LAPT 12 Results 13 LAPT Model Predictions of Air Pollutant Concentrations for 2001 Through 2004 13 LET Model Predictions of Vehicle Emission Concentrations for 2001 Through 2004 13 Emission Assumptions for the Air Pollution Model 14 Air Pollution Predictions for 2001 Through 2004 15 Comparison of Projected Air Pollutant Concentrations Before and After CCS Introduction for Within and Outside the Zone 16 Model Sensitivity Tests 21 NOx Concentrations 27 Discussion 28 The Physical Properties of the CCS Area 28 The Representation of Road Traffic As a Proportion of All Emissions in London and Predicted Trends 28 The Ability of Small Numbers of Measurement Sites to Reflect Complex Urban Traffic Management Changes 29 Model Impact Assessment: Before Versus After CCS Introduction 31 Model Impact Assessment: Impact of Each Vehicle Type 32 Research Report 155 ESTABLISHING A CCS STUDY DATABASE OF AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENTS 32 Introduction 32 Selection of Monitoring Sites 32 Site Classification Definitions 34 Monitored Pollutants 34 Quality Assurance and Quality Control of Measurements 35 CCS Study Database Structure and Analysis 35 Summary Statistics 35 Time-Series Charts 40 ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL CHANGES IN MEAN MEASURED POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS ACROSS LONDON 42 Introduction 42 Methods 43 Data Compilation 43 Selection of Monitoring Sites 43 Statistical Methods 43 Results 45 Analysis of Weekday Data 45 Analysis of Weekend Data 51 Descriptive Analysis of Changes in Pollutant Concentrations over Time for All Monitoring Sites Within the CCZ, in the Area Surrounding It, and in the Control Area 52 Discussion 52 Summary of Findings from the Weekday Analysis 52 Summary of Findings from the Weekend Analysis 54 Effects of the CCS on Areas Outside the Zone 54 Data Availability 54 Potential Confounding 54 Choice of Time Period 54 Serial Correlation in Pollutant Measurements 55 Conclusions 55 SUMMARY OF INVESTIGATIVE ANALYSES 55 Use of Ethane as a Dispersion Indicator 56 Background and Methods 56 Findings 56 Strengths and Weaknesses 56 Application of the CUSUM Technique to Air Pollution Data 56 Background and Methods 56 Initial Findings and Subsequent Action 56 Ultimate Findings 56 Strengths and Weaknesses 57 Use of Bivariate Polar Plots to Characterize Local Emissions 58 Introduction and Methods 58 Findings 58 Strengths and Weaknesses 59 CONTENTS INTEGRATED DISCUSSION 59 Modeling Studies of the Likely Air Quality Impacts of the CCS 60 Statistical Analysis of Measurement Data 60 Data Availability 61 Background Versus Roadside 61 Potential Confounding 61 Choice of Time Period 61 Serial Correlation in Pollutant Measurements 62 Weekend Analysis 62 Effects of the CCS on Areas in Greater London Outside the Zone 62 Synthesis of Findings 62 IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHERS INTRODUCING TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SCHEMES TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY 63 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 64 REFERENCES 64 APPENDIX A. HEI Quality Assurance Statement 66 APPENDIX B. Background and Roadside Monitoring Sites in Greater London Used in the Temporal Analyses of Changes in Mean Measured Pollutant Concentrations 67 APPENDICES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB 70 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 70 OTHER PUBLICATIONS RESULTING FROM THIS RESEARCH 71 ABBREVIATIONS AND OTHER TERMS 71 INVESTIGATORS’ REPORT Part 2 by Kelly et al. 73 ABSTRACT 73 INTRODUCTION 73 SPECIFIC AIMS 76 METHODS 76 PM10 Filter Archive 76 Analysis of Oxidative Potential of PM10 76 PM Components and Characteristics That Contribute to Oxidative Potential 80 Modeling of Vehicle Contributions to Primary PM10 81 Analytic Approach 82 RESULTS 84 Characterization of the Oxidative Potential of PM10 84 Examining the Impact of the Introduction of the CCS 88 Within-City Spatial Variation in the Oxidative Potential of PM 92 Modeling of Motor Vehicle Contributions to Primary PM10 101 Research Report 155 DISCUSSION 103 Assessment of the Oxidative Potential and Metal Content of PM10 103 Impact of the CCS on the Oxidative Potential of Ambient PM10 in London 104 Within-City Spatial Variation in the Oxidative Potential of PM10 105 IMPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS 108 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 109 REFERENCES 109 APPENDIX A. HEI Quality Assurance Statement 114 APPENDIX B. Assessment of the Contribution of Volatile Components to the Oxidative Potential of PM 115 APPENDIX C. PM Oxidative Potential Measurements 119 APPENDIX D. Calculation of Emissions from Tire Wear and Brake Wear 142 APPENDIX E. Standardization of Oxidative Potential Measurements 142 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 143 OTHER PUBLICATIONS RESULTING FROM THIS RESEARCH 143 ABBREVIATIONS AND OTHER TERMS 144 COMMENTARY by the Health Review Committee 145 INTRODUCTION 145 SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND 145 London Congestion Charging Scheme 146 Outcomes Evaluation Cycle 147 SUMMARY OF THE STUDY’S SPECIFIC AIMS 147 PART 1. EMISSIONS MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF AIR POLLUTION MEASUREMENTS (SPECIFIC AIMS 1–3) 148 Methods 148 Modeling the Impact of the CCS on Air Pollution (Specific Aim 1) 148 Establishment of the CCS Study Database of Air Quality Measurements (Specific Aim 2) 149 Analysis of Changes in Geometric Mean Pollutant Concentrations Measured Across London (Specific Aim 3) 149 Additional Exploratory Analyses 150 CONTENTS Summary of Main Results for Part 1 150 Modeling Studies 150 Analysis of CCS-Related Changes in Geometric Mean Pollutant Concentrations Measured Across London 151 Investigators’ Conclusions for Part 1 153 PART 2. ANALYSIS OF THE OXIDATIVE POTENTIAL OF PM10 (SPECIFIC AIM 4) 153 Methods 153 Filter Archive 153 Filter Extraction and Analysis 154 Derivation of Metrics for Oxidative Potential 155 Characterization of Contributors to Oxidative Potential 155 Data Analysis 155 Summary of Main Results for Part 2 156 Characterization of Oxidative Potential and the Metal Composition of PM10 Extracts 156 Effect of the CCS on the Oxidative Potential and Metal Content of PM10 156 Characterization of Within-City Spatial Variation in the Oxidative Potential of PM10 158 Modeling Vehicle Contributions to Primary PM10 159 Investigators’ Conclusions for Part 2 159 HEALTH REVIEW COMMITTEE’S EVALUATION OF THE STUDY 159 Modeling the Impact of the CCS on Air Quality in London (Specific Aim 1) 160 Evidence from Monitoring Data on the Impact of the CCS (Specific Aims 2 and 3) 161 Additional Exploratory Analyses 162 Oxidative Potential of London’s PM

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