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Health Effects Institute Research Report 154 © 2010 Ix RESEARCH REPORT HEAL TH HEAL TH Public Health and Air Pollution EFFE CTS EFFE CTS in Asia (PAPA): INSTITUTE INSTITUTE Coordinated Studies of Short-Term 101 Federal Street, Suite 500 Exposure to Air Pollution Boston, MA 02110, USA Number 154 +1-617-488-2300 November 2010 and Daily Mortality in Four Cities www.healtheffects.org HEI Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia Program RESEARCH REPORT Number 154 November 2010 Includes Commentaries by the Institute’s Health Review Committee January 2004 January Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities HEI Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia Program with Commentaries by the HEI Health Review Committee Research Report 154 Health Effects Institute Boston, Massachusetts Trusted Science · Cleaner Air · Better Health Publishing history: The Web version of this document was posted at www.healtheffects.org in November 2010. Citation for Research Report 154 in its entirety: HEI Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia Program. 2010. Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities. HEI Research Report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 1 only: Kan H, Chen B, Zhao N, London SJ, Song G, Chen G, Zhang Y, Jiang L. 2010. Part 1. A time-series study of ambient air pollution and daily mortality in Shanghai, China. In: Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities. HEI Research Report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 2 only: Qian Z, He Q, Lin H-M, Kong L, Zhou D, Liang S, Zhu Z, Liao D, Liu W, Bentley CM, Dan J, Wang B, Yang N, Xu S, Gong J, Wei H, Sun H, Qin Z. 2010. Part 2. Association of daily mortality with ambient air pollution, and effect modification by extremely high temperature in Wuhan, China. In: Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities. HEI Research Report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 3 only: Vichit-Vadakan N, Vajanapoom N, Ostro B. 2010. Part 3. Estimating the effects of air pollution on mortality in Bangkok, Thailand. In: Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities. HEI Research Report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 4 only: Wong C-M, Thach TQ, Chau PYK, Chan EKP, Chung RY-N, Ou C-Q, Yang L, Peiris JSM, Thomas GN, Lam T-H, Wong T-W, Hedley AJ. 2010. Part 4. Interaction between air pollution and respiratory viruses: Time-series study of daily mortality and hospital admissions in Hong Kong. In: Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities. HEI Research Report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. Citation for Part 5 only: Wong C-M on behalf of the PAPA teams: Bangkok, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Wuhan. 2010. Part 5. Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): A combined analysis of four studies of air pollution and mortality. In: Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities. HEI Research Report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. © 2010 Health Effects Institute, Boston, Mass., U.S.A. Asterisk Typographics, Barre, Vt., Compositor. Printed by Recycled Paper Printing, Boston, Mass. Library of Congress Catalog Number for the HEI Report Series: WA 754 R432. Cover paper: made with at least 55% recycled content, of which at least 30% is post-consumer waste; free of acid and elemental chlorine. Text paper: made with 100% post-consumer waste recycled content; acid free; no chlorine used in processing. The book is printed with soy-based inks and is of permanent archival quality. CONTENTS About HEI v About This Report vii Preface: Coordinated Time-Series Studies in Asian Cities ix Executive Summary xiii Overview: Assessing the Effects of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality in Four Asian Cities Using a Common Protocol 1 Part 1. A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Shanghai, China 13 Investigators’ Report by Kan et al. 17 Commentary by the HEI Review Committee 79 Part 2. Association of Daily Mortality with Ambient Air Pollution, and Effect Modification by Extremely High Temperature in Wuhan, China 87 Investigators’ Report by Qian et al. 91 Commentary by the HEI Review Committee 219 Part 3. Estimating the Effects of Air Pollution on Mortality in Bangkok, Thailand 227 Investigators’ Report by Vichit-Vadakan et al. 231 Commentary by the HEI Review Committee 269 Part 4. Interaction Between Air Pollution and Respiratory Viruses: Time-Series Study of Daily Mortality and Hospital Admissions in Hong Kong 277 Investigators’ Report by Wong et al. 283 Commentary by the HEI Review Committee 363 Part 5. Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): A Combined Analysis of Four Studies of Air Pollution and Mortality 373 Investigators’ Report by Wong on behalf of the PAPA teams: Bangkok, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Wuhan 377 Integrated Discussion: A Commentary on the Methods and Analyses of the PAPA Time-Series Studies by the HEI Review Committee 419 Common Protocol 433 Related HEI Publications 465 HEI Board, Committees, and Staff 467 ABOUT HEI The Health Effects Institute is a nonprofit corporation chartered in 1980 as an independent research organization to provide high-quality, impartial, and relevant science on the effects of air pollution on health. To accomplish its mission, the institute • Identifies the highest-priority areas for health effects research; • Competitively funds and oversees research projects; • Provides intensive independent review of HEI-supported studies and related research; • Integrates HEI’s research results with those of other institutions into broader evaluations; and • Communicates the results of HEI’s research and analyses to public and private decision makers. HEI receives half of its core funds from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and half from the worldwide motor vehicle industry. Frequently, other public and private organizations in the United States and around the world also support major projects or certain research programs. The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Program was initiated by the Health Effects Institute in part to support the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia), a partnership of the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank to inform regional decisions about improving air quality in Asia. Additional funding was obtained from the U.S. Agency for International Development and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. HEI has funded more than 280 research projects in North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America, the results of which have informed decisions regarding carbon monoxide, air toxics, nitrogen oxides, diesel exhaust, ozone, particulate matter, and other pollutants. These results have appeared in the peer-reviewed literature and in more than 200 comprehensive reports published by HEI. HEI’s independent Board of Directors consists of leaders in science and policy who are committed to fostering the public–private partnership that is central to the organization. The Health Research Committee solicits input from HEI sponsors and other stakeholders and works with scientific staff to develop a Five-Year Strategic Plan, select research projects for funding, and oversee their conduct. The Health Review Committee, which has no role in selecting or overseeing studies, works with staff to evaluate and interpret the results of funded studies and related research. All project results and accompanying comments by the Health Review Committee are widely disseminated through HEI’s Web site (www.healtheffects.org), printed reports, newsletters and other publications, annual conferences, and presentations to legislative bodies and public agencies. v ABOUT THIS REPORT Research Report 154, Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): Coordinated Studies of Short- Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in Four Cities, presents five studies funded by the Health Effects Institute. This report contains these main elements: The Executive Summary, prepared by staff at HEI, is a brief, nontechnical summary of the four time-series studies and the fifth study, a combined analysis of the data; the Executive Summary also briefly describes the Health Review Committee’s comments on the studies. The Investigators’ Reports on the five studies describe the scientific background, aims, methods, results, and conclusions of each of the studies. The Overview, the four Commentaries on the time-series studies, and the Integrated Discussion included in the Combined Analysis were prepared by members of the Health Review Committee with the assistance of HEI staff; these sections place the studies in a broader scientific context, point out their strengths and limitations, and discuss remaining uncertainties and implications of the findings for public health and future research. This report and the five component studies have gone through HEI’s rigorous review process. When an HEI-funded study is completed, the investigators submit a draft final report presenting the background and results of the study. This draft report is first examined by outside technical reviewers and a biostatistician. The report and the reviewers’ comments are then evaluated by members of the Health Review Committee, an independent panel of distinguished scientists who have no involvement in selecting or overseeing HEI studies. During the review process, the investigators have an opportunity to exchange comments with the Review Committee and, as necessary, to revise their report.
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